Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

U.S. food policy to address diet-related chronic disease

Poor diet is the leading cause of mortality in the U.S. due to the direct relationship with diet-related chronic diseases, disproportionally affects underserved communities, and exacerbates health disparities. Evidence-based policy solutions are greatly needed to foster an equitable and climate-smart food system that improves health, nutrition and reduces chronic disease healthcare costs. To directly address epidemic levels of U.S. diet-related chronic diseases and nutritional health disparities, we conducted a policy analysis, prioritized policy options and implementation strategies, and issued final recommendations for bipartisan consideration in the 2023-24 Farm Bill Reauthorization. Actional recommendations include: sugar-sweetened beverage taxation, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) fruit and vegetable subsidy expansion, replacement of ultra-processed foods (UPF) with sustainable, diverse, climate-smart agriculture and food purchasing options, and implementing "food is medicine."

Place of Residence Is Associated with Dietary Intake and BMI-SDS in Children and Adolescents: Findings from the DONALD Cohort Study

We aimed to determine whether place of residence in the German urban food environment is associated with habitual dietary intake (energy, macronutrients, and food groups) and body mass index (standard deviation score of BMI and BMI-SDS). Our hypothesis was that place of residence may explain some variation in dietary intake and nutritional outcomes. For the cross-sectional analyses of DONALD study data, we grouped participants according to their geocoded residence in the north or south of Dortmund. We applied robust multi-level mixed effects regression models using residence as a predictor and (1) BMI-SDS or (2) dietary data (daily intake of energy (kcal), macronutrients (energy percentage), or food groups (g/1000 kcal)) as the outcome. Models were adjusted for age, sex, and household socio-economic status. An analysis was carried out on 1267 anthropometric measurements collected annually from 360 participants aged 6-18 years (935 3-day weighed dietary records from 292 participants) between 2014 and 2019. In the fully adjusted models, residence in the south was associated with a lower BMI-SDS (β = -0.42, p = 0.02), lower intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (β = -47.00, p = 0.04), and higher intake of vegetables (β = 11.13, p = 0.04). Findings suggest that the place of residence, beyond individuals' socio-economic statuses, may be a contributing factor to dietary quality.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Impact of implementation of front-of-package nutrition labeling on sugary beverage consumption and consequently on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity and related direct costs in Brazil: An estimate through a modeling study

RATIONALE

Intake of sugary beverages has been associated with obesity and chronic non-communicable diseases, thereby increasing the direct health costs related to these diseases. Front-of-package nutrition labeling (FoPNL) aims to help consumers understand food composition, thereby improving food choices and preventing the development of such diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate, over five years, the impact of implementing FoPNL in Brazil on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity in adults who consume sugary beverages and the direct costs related to such problems.

METHODS

A simulation study to performed to estimate the effect of FoPNL implementation on the prevalence of excess body weight and obesity. The VIGITEL research database (2019), published in the 2020 report, was used in this study (the final sample consisted of 12,471 data points representing 14,380,032 Brazilians). The scenarios were considered: base (trend in sugary beverage intake); 1 (base scenario associated with the changes in energy content of the purchased beverages observed after the first phase of the Chilean labeling law (-9.9%); and 2 (scenario 1 associated with reformulation of beverages, total energy reduction of -1.6%). Changes in body weight were estimated using the simulation model of Hall et al. (2011) over five years. A linear trend in the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight in the Brazilian population was considered. The impact of the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight on body mass index was estimated. In addition, the direct health costs related to obesity were estimated.

RESULTS

Energy consumption from sugary beverages after FoPNL implementation is expected to be reduced by approximately 28 kcal/day (95% CI, -30 to -27) considering scenario 1. In scenarios 1 and 2, without FoPNL, the prevalence of obesity and excess body weight over five years was estimated to be 25.3% and 25.2%, and 64.4% and 64.2%, respectively. By extrapolating the results to the entire Brazilian population, it was observed that the implementation of FoPNL may reduce the prevalence of obesity by -0.32 percentage points and -0.35 percentage points (scenario 1 and 2, respectively) and excess body weight by -0.42 percentage points and -0.48 percentage points (scenarios 1 and 2, respectively) in five years. It is estimated that after five years of implementation, it will be possible to save approximately US$ 5,5 millions (95% CI 4,7 to 8,8) in scenario 1, reaching approximately US$ 6,1 millions (95% CI 5,3 to 9,8) in scenario 2.

CONCLUSION

The results of this modeling study indicate that FoPNL may reduce prevalence of excess body weight and obesity, representing strategic public policies for obesity prevention.

Assessing the impact of non-nutritive sweeteners on anthropometric indices and leptin levels in adults: A GRADE-assessed systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of randomized clinical trials

In today's world, non-nutritive sweeteners (NNSs) are recognized as substitutes for sugar or other high-calorie sweeteners, and their consumption is increasing dramatically. However, there is ongoing debate regarding the impact of NNSs on anthropometric indices. To fill this gap in knowledge, the current GRADE-assessed systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was conducted to evaluate the effects of artificial- and stevia-based sweeteners consumption on anthropometric indices and serum leptin level which is known as an appetite-regulating hormone. A comprehensive search was conducted on the Scopus, PubMed, and Embase databases up to November 2022 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of NNSs on anthropometric indices and serum leptin levels. Data extraction from qualified studies was performed independently by two researchers. A random- or fixed-effects model was used to estimate weighted mean differences (WMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for anthropometric indices such as body weight (BW), body mass index (BMI), fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), waist circumference (WC) and serum leptin level. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochran's Q test and quantified using the I² statistic. From a pool of 3212 studies initially identified, 20 studies with a total sample size of 2158 subjects were included in the analysis. Results of the pooled analysis showed that NNSs consumption had a significant reducing effect on BW (WMD: -1.02, 95% CI: -1.57, -0.46 Kg), FM (WMD: -1.09, 95% CI: -1.90, -0.29), and FFM (WMD: -0.83, 95% CI: -1.42, -0.23), but did not have any significant effect on BMI (WMD: -0.16, 95% CI: -0.35, 0.02), WC (WMD: -1.03, 95% CI: -2.77, 0.72), or serum leptin level (WMD: -2.17, 95% CI: -4.98, 0.65). The findings of this study indicate that the consumption of artificial- and stevia-based sweeteners may lead to a reduction in body weight, fat mass, and free fat mass.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among pregnant women attending general and teaching hospitals in Ibadan, Nigeria : SSB consumption during pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have become a global health concern because of their adverse health effects and their association with the obesity pandemic. It has not received much attention in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, especially among pregnant women. The pattern, frequency and factors associated with SSBs among pregnant women in Ibadan, Nigeria, were investigated.

DESIGN

Data were from the Ibadan Pregnancy Cohort Study - a prospective cohort study investigating 1745 pregnant women from four comprehensive obstetric facilities in Ibadan. A qualitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was used to assess the pregnant women's intake of food and drinks over the previous months. Sugar-sweetened beverage variable and scores were also generated using the principal component analysis with varimax rotation. Factors associated with high SSB scores were examined using multivariate logistics regression analyses at a 5% significance level.

RESULTS

The most commonly consumed SSBs were cocoa-sweetened beverages, soft drinks, malt drinks, and fruit juice. A quarter of the women (75th percentile) consumed SSB more than once weekly. The factors associated with high SSB on multivariate analysis were; being employed (AOR: 1.52, 95% CI 1.02-2.26), maternal obesity (AOR: 0.065, 95% CI 0.47-0.89), high fruit intake (AOR:3.62, 95% CI 2.62-4.99), high green vegetable consumption (AOR:1.99, 95% CI 1.06-3.74), high milk intake (AOR: 2.13, 95% CI 1.65- 2.74), frequent fast food outlet visit (AOR: 2.19, 95% CI 1.53-1.70), all of these remained significant after adjusting for confounding variables.

CONCLUSION

SSBs were common among our study population. Factors associated with high SSBs intake are crucial for implementing locally relevant public health interventions.

Association of normal weight obesity with lifestyle and dietary habits in young Thai women: A cross-sectional study

Background

The risk of lifestyle-related diseases in normal weight obesity (NWO), a condition, in which the body mass index (BMI) is normal but the body fat mass is high, has attracted a lot of attention. However, there are no reports on the association between NWO and lifestyle, eating habits, and other health risks in Thai people. BMI alone cannot be used to identify individuals with NWO; thus, some students with NWO develop metabolic abnormalities without receiving any intervention. This study aimed to examine the differences in anthropometrics, lifestyle, and eating habits among young Thai women and their association with the BMI and the body fat ratio (BFR).

Methods

A total of 250 female Thai university students of normal body type (18.5 ≤ BMI<25.0 kg/m2) were classified as having non-normal weight obesity (NO-NWO) if their BFR was <30.0% or NWO if their BMI and BFR were >30.0%. The lifestyle and eating habits of the two groups were compared. We conducted logistic analysis with the presence or absence of NWO as the dependent variable, and the dietary habit items of "eating greasy foods," "eating ultra-processed foods (UPF)," and "drinking sweetened beverages" as the objective variables.

Results

Among the study participants who were of normal body type, 46.8% were NWO. The participants in the NWO group consumed UPF more frequently (odds ratio [OR], 2.04; p = 0.014) and sweetened beverages more regularly (OR, 1.92, p = 0.041) than those in the NO-NWO group.

Conclusion

UPF and sweetened beverage consumption was more common in individuals with NWO. Identifying the risk factors for NWO is essential to help individuals make lifestyle changes to prevent its progression and complications.

The burden of disease and economic impact of sugar-sweetened beverages' consumption in Argentina: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Approximately two-thirds of Argentine adults are overweight or obese, and 11% have diabetes. Over the last two decades, all population groups have increased their consumption of ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We aimed to estimate the disease burden-deaths, events, and costs to the health system-attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina.

METHODS

We used a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the health and economic impacts that would be avoided in a scenario without sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. We calculated the direct effects on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and BMI, and then estimated the effects of BMI on disease incidence. Finally, we applied the population attributable factor to calculate the health and economic burden avoided in Argentina in 2020.

RESULTS

Our model estimated that about 4,425 deaths, 110,000 healthy life years lost to premature death and disability, more than 520,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults, and 774,000 in children and adolescents would be attributed to SSB Consumption in Argentina. This disease burden corresponds to 23% of type-2 diabetes cases and other significant proportions of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The overweight and obesity costs attributable to SSB totaled approximately $47 million in adults and $15 million in children and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of disease cases, deaths, and health care costs could be attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. Implementing measures to reduce the sugar content in beverages is a pending debt for the country and could lead to measurable improvements in population health, especially among children and adolescents.

The health and economic burden associated with sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in Trinidad and Tobago

BACKGROUND

In Trinidad and Tobago, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death. Unhealthy diet is one modifiable NCD risk factor, which contributes to the NCD burden. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with an increased risk of NCDs.

AIM

The aim of this paper is to estimate the burden of disease and economic costs associated with the consumption of SSBs in Trinidad and Tobago as evidence to support the implementation of health and fiscal policies on SSB consumption.

METHODS

The results of this study were obtained through the use of a mathematical model which used a comparative risk assessment approach to estimate the health and economic burden associated with SSB intake, by sex and age.

RESULTS

Estimates for one year showed that SSB consumption was associated with approximately 15,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults and 11,700 cases in children, 28% of all the cases of diabetes and overall, an estimated 387 deaths and 9000 years of healthy life were lost due to premature death and disability. Approximately US$23.1 million was spent in the public healthcare system to treat diseases associated with consumption of sugary beverages.

CONCLUSIONS

The consumption of SSBs is associated with increases in diseases, deaths and rising healthcare costs in Trinidad and Tobago. It is hoped that the results of this study will provide an added rationale and impetus for the implementation of policies to reduce the consumption of SSBs.

Health and economic burden of disease of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in four Latin American and Caribbean countries: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Overweight and obesity are important contributors to the non-communicable disease burden. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease, cancer and other conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of disease attributable to the consumption of SSBs and the costs to the healthcare systems in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

DESIGN

Following a systematic review of models, a comparative risk assessment framework was developed to estimate the health and economic impact associated with the consumption of SSBs.

SETTING

Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

PARTICIPANTS

Overall population.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The model estimated the effects of SSB consumption on health through two causal pathways: one mediated by body mass index (BMI) and health conditions associated with BMI and another that reflected the independent effects of SSB consumption on T2DM and cardiovascular diseases.

RESULTS

The model results indicated that for all four countries, in 1 year, SSB consumption was associated with 18 000 deaths (3.2% of the total disease-related deaths), seven million disease events (3.3% of the total disease-related events), a half-million DALYs and US$2 billion in direct medical costs. This included 1.5 million cases of overweight and obesity in children/adolescents (12% of the excess weight cases) and 2.8 million cases in adults (2.8%); 2.2 million cases of type 2 diabetes (19%); 200 000 cases of heart disease (3.8%); 124 000 strokes (3.9%); 116 000 cases of musculoskeletal disease (0.2%); 102 000 cases of kidney disease (0.9%); and 45 000 episodes of asthma (0.4%). The Trinidad and Tobago population were the most affected by disease events.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results indicate that the consumption of SSBs is associated with a significant burden of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean.

[Burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El SalvadorCarga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador]

Objective

To estimate the burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

Methods

A comparative risk model was used to estimate the effects on deaths, health events, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct medical costs attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Results

A total of 520 deaths (8 per 100 000 individuals), 214 082 health events (3 220 per 100 000 individuals) and 16 643 DALYs could be attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador, representing US$69.35 million in direct medical costs for the year 2020. In particular, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) events attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages could represent more than 20% of total T2DM cases in the country.

Conclusion

A high number of deaths, events, and costs could be attributed to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies

BACKGROUND

The promotion of healthy lifestyles has high priority on the global public health agenda. Evidence on the real-world (cost-)effectiveness of policies addressing nutrition and physical activity is needed. To estimate short-term policy impacts, quasi-experimental methods using observational data are useful, while simulation models can estimate long-term impacts. We review the methods, challenges and potential synergies of both approaches for the evaluation of nutrition and physical activity policies.

METHODS

We performed an integrative review applying purposive literature sampling techniques to synthesize original articles, systematic reviews and lessons learned from public international workshops conducted within the European Union Policy Evaluation Network.

RESULTS

We highlight data requirements for policy evaluations, discuss the distinct assumptions of instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and regression discontinuity designs and describe the necessary robustness and falsification analyses to test them. Further, we summarize the specific assumptions of comparative risk assessment and Markov state-transition simulation models, including their extension to microsimulation. We describe the advantages and limitations of these modelling approaches and discuss future directions, such as the adequate consideration of heterogeneous policy responses. Finally, we highlight how quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods can be integrated into an evidence cycle for policy evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Assumptions of quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods in policy evaluations should be credible, rigorously tested and transparently communicated. Both approaches can be applied synergistically within a coherent framework to compare policy implementation scenarios and improve the estimation of nutrition and physical activity policy impacts, including their distribution across population sub-groups.