The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy

Vaccination status and disease severity of COVID-19 in different phases of the pandemic

This study aimed to explore the clinical profile and the impact of vaccination status on various health outcomes among COVID-19 patients diagnosed in different phases of the pandemic, during which several variants of concern (VOCs) circulated in South Carolina (SC). The current study included 861,526 adult COVID-19 patients diagnosed between January 2021 and April 2022. We extracted their information about demographic characteristics, vaccination, and clinical outcomes from a statewide electronic health record database. Multiple logistic regression models were used to compare clinical outcomes by vaccination status in different pandemic phases, accounting for key covariates (e.g. historical comorbidities). A reduction in mortality was observed among COVID-19 patients during the whole study period, although there were fluctuations during the Delta and Omicron dominant periods. Compared to non-vaccinated patients, full-vaccinated COVID-19 patients had lower mortality in all dominant variants, including Pre-alpha (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.33; 95%CI: 0.15-0.72), Alpha (aOR: 0.58; 95%CI: 0.42-0.82), Delta (aOR: 0.28; 95%CI: 0.25-0.31), and Omicron (aOR: 0.29; 95%CI: 0.26-0.33) phases. Regarding hospitalization, full-vaccinated parties showed lower risk of hospitalization than non-vaccinated patients in Delta (aOR: 0.44; 95%CI: 0.41-0.47) and Omicron (aOR: 0.53; 95%CI: 0.50-0.57) dominant periods. The findings demonstrated the protection effect of the COVID-19 vaccines against all VOCs, although some of the full-vaccinated population still have symptoms to varying degrees from COVID-19 disease at different phases of the pandemic.

Disease severity of COVID-19 in different phases of the pandemic: Do healthcare workers have better outcomes?

Background

This study aimed to characterize and compare the demographics, clinical profile, and COVID-19 outcomes between healthcare workers (HCWs) and non-HCWs COVID-19 patients diagnosed in different phases of the pandemic defined by the vaccine rollout policy and different variants that circulated in South Carolina (SC).

Methods

Extracted from the statewide electronic health record data, we analyzed the clinical outcome of 34,502 HCWs and 1,071,020 non-HCWs adults diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 between March 2, 2020 to April 14, 2022. Logistic regression models were used to explore the association between different pandemic phases and COVID-19 severity-related outcomes.

Results

Substantial reductions in mortality were observed following the vaccine rollout in non-HCWs and HCWs. Compared to the pre-vaccination period, non-HCWs patients diagnosed during post-vaccination with Alpha predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.04-1.16) were more likely to be hospitalized, but the reduced mortality rates were observed in all post-vaccination periods. Regarding HCWs, a reduced mortality rate was only observed in the pre-Alpha (aOR: 0.33; 95%CI: 0.13-0.84) and Omicron periods (aOR: 0.21; 95%CI: 0.05-0.89).

Conclusions

The declining protection effect of vaccines informs the importance of early promotion of the booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine for HCWs who have more occupational exposure.

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Global crises, regardless of the place where they started to spread or of the factors that triggered them, require a comprehensive approach, primarily based on good communication, cooperation and mutual support. No individual and no institution should remain indifferent to crises but, on the contrary, be fully aware that any involvement in curbing them matters. Although humanity can be affected by various types of crises, in this paper we refer to the one related to COVID-19 pandemic. There are certain reasons that come to justify our choice: first of all, being a shock with a strong impact on people, its analysis should be performed from several angles; this may bring to light an image with its disparate propagation and measures to counteract it both in developed countries, and especially in those with a shortage of resources. Secondly, in the context of the emergence of vaccines against COVID-19, it is helpful to have an overview of COVID-19 through the lens of the relationship between the vaccination process and the elements that characterize governance, with a differentiated dashboard by country categories worldwide: low, middle and high-income countries. Our study is far from capturing the complexity arising from such social problem, but rather aims to outline the defining role of governance when it comes to providing firm reactions to the COVID-19 crisis.

METHODS

Given that our sample consists of a large number of countries, namely 170, first, examined all together, and then, split into three groups (high, middle and low-income), it is challenging to address governance in association with COVID-19 vaccination, in order to see how much they interact and how each of the six aggregate governance indicators of the World Bank (Worldwide Governance Indicators) is reflected in this process. Even if they do not oscillate strongly over relatively short periods of time, reporting on health issues requires a sequential inventory, considering closer time intervals, so as to be able to act promptly. Thus, to better distinguish how the COVID-19 vaccination process evolved in low, middle and high-income countries, but also how it was imprinted by governance, we present the situation quarterly (March, June, September and December), in 2021, the year when the immunization campaigns were the most intense at the global level. Regarding the applied methods, we mention both OLS regressions with robust estimators and a panel model, used to investigate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination, some of them describing the good governance, as well as other dimensions.

RESULTS

The findings point out that the influence of governance on COVID-19 vaccination differs depending on whether a country belongs to high, middle or low-income typology: the strongest determinism of governance on vaccination is encountered in high-income countries, and the weakest in low-income ones; in some cases, governance does not matter significantly. However, exploring the three groups of states included in the research, it is observed that the most relevant factors in this relationship are government effectiveness, regulatory quality and control of corruption.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides the order of importance of governance indicators on COVID-19 vaccination, our study indicates that, overall, governance positively shapes the vaccination rate at the level of the chosen sample. In normative terms, these findings can be translated particularly by the fact that they can serve as information to raise awareness on the relevance of the existence of an institutional framework that allows the formulation of strategies according to the patterns of each country, especially since the actionable tools depend on the available resources. As a general conclusion, public policies should be designed in such a way as to strengthen trust in vaccination regulations and in governments, to reduce the multifaceted negative effects of this health crisis and to hope for its total end.

One hundred ECMO retrivals before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

Patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome may require veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-V ECMO) support. For patients in peripheral hospitals, retrieval by mobile ECMO teams and transport to high-volume centers is associated with improved outcomes, including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. To enable a safe transport of patients, a specialised ECMO-retrieval program needs to be implemented. However, there is insufficient evidence on how to safely and efficiently perform ECMO retrievals. We report single-centre data from out-of-centre initiations of VV-ECMO before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN & SETTING

Single-centre retrospective study. We include all the retrievals performed by our ECMO centre between January 1st, 2014, and April 30th, 2021.

RESULTS

One hundred ECMO missions were performed in the study period, for a median retrieval volume of 13 (IQR: 9-16) missions per year. the cause of the acute respiratory distress syndrome was COVID-19 in 10 patients (10 %). 98 (98 %) patients were retrieved and transported to our ECMO centre. To allow safe transport, 91 of them were cannulated on-site and transported on V-V ECMO. The remaining seven patients were centralised without ECMO, but they were all connected to V-V ECMO in the first 24 hours. No complications occurred during patient transport. The median duration of the ECMO mission was 7 hours (IQR: 6-9, range: 2 - 17). Median duration of ECMO support was 14 days (IQR: 9-24), whereas the ICU stay was 24 days (IQR:18-44). Overall, 73 patients were alive at hospital discharge (74 %). Survival rate was similar in non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 group (73 % vs 80 %, p = 0.549).

CONCLUSION

In this single-centre experience, before and during COVID-19 era, retrieval and ground transportation of ECMO patients was feasible and was not associated with complications. Key factors of an ECMO retrieval program include a careful selection of the transport ambulance, training of a dedicated ECMO mobile team and preparation of specific checklists and standard operating procedures.

Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by successive waves that each developed differently over time and through space. We aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the evolution of COVID-19 mortality during 2020 and 2021 in a selection of countries.

METHODS

We focus on five European countries and the United States. Using standardized and age-specific mortality rates, we address variations in COVID-19 mortality within and between countries, and demographic characteristics and seasonality patterns.

RESULTS

Our results highlight periods of acceleration and deceleration in the pace of COVID-19 mortality, with substantial differences across countries. Periods of stabilization were identified during summer (especially in 2020) among the European countries analyzed but not in the United States. The latter stands out as the study population with the highest COVID-19 mortality at young ages. In general, COVID-19 mortality is highest at old ages, particularly during winter. Compared with women, men have higher COVID-19 mortality rates at most ages and in most seasons.

CONCLUSION

There is seasonality in COVID-19 mortality for both sexes at all ages, characterized by higher rates during winter. In 2021, the highest COVID-19 mortality rates continued to be observed at ages 75+, despite vaccinations having targeted those ages specifically.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on outpatient visit volume in cancer patients: Results of COMETA multicenter retrospective observational study

Objective

To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on first and follow-up visits for cancer outpatients.

Methods

This is a multicenter retrospective observational study involving three Comprehensive Cancer Care Centers (CCCCs): IFO, including IRE and ISG in Rome, AUSL-IRCCS of Reggio Emilia, and IRCCS Giovanni Paolo II in Bari) and one oncology department in a Community Hospital (Saint'Andrea Hospital, Rome). From 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, we evaluated the volume of outpatient consultations (first visits and follow-up), comparing them with the pre-pandemic year (2019). Results were analyzed by quarter according to the Rt (real-time indicator used to assess the evolution of the pandemic). IFO and IRCCS Giovanni Paolo II were "COVID-free" while AUSL-IRCCS RE was a "COVID-mixed" Institute. Depending on the Rt, Sain't Andrea Hospital experienced a "swinging" organizational pathway (COVID-free/ COVID-mixed).

Results

Regarding the "first appointments", in 2020 the healthcare facilities operating in the North and Center of Italy showed a downward trend. In 2021, only AUSL-IRCCS RE showed an upward trend. Regarding the "follow-up", only AUSL IRCCS RE showed a slight up-trend in 2020. In 2021, IFO showed an increasing trend, while S. Andrea Hospital showed a negative plateau. Surprisingly, IRCCS Giovanni Paolo II in Bari showed an uptrend for both first appointment and follow-ups during pandemic and late pandemic except for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Conclusions

During the first pandemic wave, no significant difference was observed amongst COVID-free and COVID-mixed Institutes and between CCCCs and a Community Hospital. In 2021 ("late pandemic year"), it has been more convenient to organize COVID-mixed pathway in the CCCCs rather than to keep the Institutions COVID-free. A swinging modality in the Community Hospital did not offer positive results in term of visit volumes. Our study about the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on visit volume in cancer outpatients may help health systems to optimize the post-pandemic use of resources and improve healthcare policies.

Excess mortality and protected areas during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italian municipalities

There is widespread debate on the drivers of heterogeneity of adverse COVID-19 pandemic outcomes and, more specifically, on the role played by context-specific factors. We contribute to this literature by testing the role of environmental factors as measured by environmentally protected areas. We test our research hypothesis by showing that the difference between the number of daily deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in 2020 and the 2018–19 average during the pandemic period is significantly lower in Italian municipalities located in environmentally protected areas such as national parks, regional parks, or Environmentally Protected Zones. After controlling for fixed effects and various concurring factors, municipalities with higher share of environmentally protected areas show significantly lower mortality during the pandemic than municipalities that do not benefit from such environmental amenities.

Substantial impact of mobility restrictions on reducing COVID-19 incidence in Italy in 2020

BACKGROUND

Italy was the first country after China to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020. The country responded swiftly to the outbreak with a nationwide two-step lockdown, the first one light and the second one tight. By analyzing 2020 national mobile phone movements, we assessed how lockdown compliance influenced its efficacy.

METHODS

We measured individual mobility during the first epidemic wave with mobile phone movements tracked through carrier networks, and related this mobility to daily new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions, intensive care admissions and deaths attributed to COVID-19, taking into account reason for travel (work-related or not) and the means of transport.

RESULTS

The tight lockdown resulted in an 82% reduction in mobility for the entire country and was effective in swiftly curbing the outbreak as indicated by a shorter time-to-peak of all health outcomes, particularly for provinces with the highest mobility reductions and the most intense COVID-19 spread. Reduction of work-related mobility was accompanied by a nearly linear benefit in outbreak containment; work-unrelated movements had a similar effect only for restrictions exceeding 50%. Reduction in mobility by car and by airplane was nearly linearly associated with a decrease in most COVID-19 health outcomes, while for train travel reductions exceeding 55% had no additional beneficial effects. The absence of viral variants and vaccine availability during the study period eliminated confounding from these two sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to the COVID-19 tight lockdown during the first wave in Italy was high and effective in curtailing the outbreak. Any work-related mobility reduction was effective, but only high reductions in work-unrelated mobility restrictions were effective. For train travel, there was a threshold above which no further benefit occurred. These findings could be particular to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but might also apply to other communicable infections with comparable transmission dynamics.

The other side of the crisis: organizational flexibility in balancing Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 health-care services

Background

Many healthcare systems have been unable to deal with Covid-19 without influencing non-Covid-19 patients with pre-existing conditions, risking a paralysis in the medium term. This study explores the effects of organizational flexibility on hospital efficiency in terms of the capacity to deliver healthcare services for both Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients.

Method

Focusing on Italian health system, a two-step strategy is adopted. First, Data Envelope Analysis is used to assess the capacity of hospitals to address the needs of Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients relying on internal resource flexibility. Second, two panel regressions are performed to assess external organizational flexibility, with the involvement in demand management of external operators in the health-care service, examining the impact on efficiency in hospital capacity management.

Results

The overall response of the hospitals in the study was not fully effective in balancing the needs of the two categories of patients (the efficiency score is 0.87 and 0.58, respectively, for Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients), though responses improved over time. Furthermore, among the measures providing complementary services in the community, home hospitalization and territorial medicine were found to be positively associated with hospital efficiency (0.1290, p < 0.05 and 0.2985, p < 0.01, respectively, for non-Covid-19 and Covid-19 patients; 0.0026, p < 0.05 and 0.0069, p < 0.01, respectively, for non-Covid-19 and Covid-19). In contrast, hospital networks are negatively related to efficiency in Covid-19 patients (-0.1037, p < 0.05), while the relationship is not significant in non-Covid-19 patients.

Conclusions

Managing the needs of Covid-19 patients while also caring for other patients requires a response from the entire healthcare system. Our findings could have two important implications for effectively managing health-care demand during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. First, as a result of a naturally progressive learning process, the resource balance between Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients improves over time. Second, it appears that demand management to control the flow of patients necessitates targeted interventions that combine agile structures with decentralization. Finally, untested integration models risk slowing down the response, giving rise to significant costs without producing effective results.

Differences in clinical features and mortality in very old unvaccinated patients (≥ 80 years) hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first and successive waves from the multicenter SEMI-COVID-19 Registry (Spain)

Background

Old age is one of the most important risk factors for severe COVID-19. Few studies have analyzed changes in the clinical characteristics and prognosis of COVID-19 among older adults before the availability of vaccines. This work analyzes differences in clinical features and mortality in unvaccinated very old adults during the first and successive COVID-19 waves in Spain.

Methods

This nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study analyzes unvaccinated patients ≥ 80 years hospitalized for COVID-19 in 150 Spanish hospitals (SEMI-COVID-19 Registry). Patients were classified according to whether they were admitted in the first wave (March 1-June 30, 2020) or successive waves (July 1-December 31, 2020). The endpoint was all-cause in-hospital mortality, expressed as the case fatality rate (CFR).

Results

Of the 21,461 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 5,953 (27.7%) were ≥ 80 years (mean age [IQR]: 85.6 [82.3–89.2] years). Of them, 4,545 (76.3%) were admitted during the first wave and 1,408 (23.7%) during successive waves. Patients hospitalized in successive waves were older, had a greater Charlson Comorbidity Index and dependency, less cough and fever, and met fewer severity criteria at admission (qSOFA index, PO2/FiO2 ratio, inflammatory parameters). Significant differences were observed in treatments used in the first (greater use of antimalarials, lopinavir, and macrolides) and successive waves (greater use of corticosteroids, tocilizumab and remdesivir). In-hospital complications, especially acute respiratory distress syndrome and pneumonia, were less frequent in patients hospitalized in successive waves, except for heart failure. The CFR was significantly higher in the first wave (44.1% vs. 33.3%; -10.8%; p < 0.001) and was higher among patients ≥ 95 years (54.4% vs. 38.5%; -15.9%; p < 0.001). After adjustments to the model, the probability of death was 33% lower in successive waves (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.57–0.79).

Conclusions

Mortality declined significantly between the first and successive waves in very old unvaccinated patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Spain. This decline could be explained by a greater availability of hospital resources and more effective treatments as the pandemic progressed, although other factors such as changes in SARS-CoV-2 virulence cannot be ruled out.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03191-4.

Seroprevalence Survey of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in a Population of Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy

Italy was the first Western European country to be severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Variations in seroprevalence rates were reported according to geographical and temporal differences of previous surveys, as well as depending on demographic and occupational factors. In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a population of the Emilia-Romagna region in Northern Italy after the first wave in the period from 26 September 2020−26 March 2021. We included 5128 subjects who voluntarily underwent serological tests to determine anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity, including both self-referred individuals (24.2%) and workers adhering to company screening programs (76.8%). Overall, seroprevalence was 11.3%, higher in self-referred (13.8%) than employed-referred (10.5%) individuals. A slightly higher seroprevalence emerged in women compared to men (12.3% and 10.7%), as well as in the extreme age categories (18.6% for 60−69 years, 18.0% for ≥70 years, and 17.1% for <20 years compared to 7.6% for 20−39 years). Healthcare professionals showed the highest prevalence of seropositivity (22.9%), followed by workers in direct contact with customers, such as the communication, finance, and tourism sectors (15.7%). Overall subgroups seroprevalence increased compared to the first wave data but the trends agreed between the first and subsequent waves, except for an increase in the younger age group and in the sector in direct contact with customers. Among the occupational categories, our study confirms that healthcare workers and workers in the sports sector were at high risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Overview of dreadful consequences of SARS-CoV-2 invasion in Italy from March 2020 to March 2022

BACKGROUND

The unpredicted pandemic disease COVID-19 first flared up adversely in Europe by imparting interminable force of infected and fatality cases to Italy. In late February 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in northern Italy and swiftly proliferated to the entire country, albeit continuous to date (23 March 2022) with a lesser extent of deadliness. Current review focused on the invasions and the associated consequences by SARS-CoV-2 during the period of March 2020-March 2022.

MAIN BODY OF THE ABSTRACT

Initially, the lethality and transmissibility of the novel virus made Italy stunned within 1 month, the number of death cases reached 12,428 at the end of March 2020. The Italian Government announced an immediate emergency phase in entire country, educational institutions to local businesses, manufacturing works, cultural activities to elective activities were rescinded and all the hospitals to morgues were swamped, ensuing that fear of epidemic was impended. Besides, the Italian National Health System and Service coordinated massive public health interventions and conferred unprecedented efforts to limit the high mortality rate of the first wave of infection. Amidst 2 years of epidemic (as of 23 March 2022), Italy has documented 14,070,450 (23.74% of the population) confirmed infected cases, 12,685,306 (21.41% of the population) healed cases, 158,254 death cases (0.27% of the population) and ranking 9th worldwide in the number of deaths.

SHORT CONCLUSION

Based on publicly available Italian Ministry of Health COVID-19 data, current review has comprehended region-wise total infected cases, death cases and healed cases for three consecutive years 2020-2022 to foresee different patterns of the regional outbreak and gradual subservience. At a glance, we highlighted the overview of the exhaustion and exertion of COVID-19 crisis throughout the periods in Italy.