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Li J, Ma Y, Li Y, Ouyang W, Liu Z, Liu X, Li B, Xiao J, Ma D, Tang Y. Intraoperative hypotension associated with postoperative acute kidney injury in hypertension patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery: a retrospective cohort study. BURNS & TRAUMA 2024; 12:tkae029. [PMID: 39049867 PMCID: PMC11267586 DOI: 10.1093/burnst/tkae029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Revised: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024]
Abstract
Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common surgical complication and is associated with intraoperative hypotension. However, the total duration and magnitude of intraoperative hypotension associated with AKI remains unknown. In this study, the causal relationship between the intraoperative arterial pressure and postoperative AKI was investigated among chronic hypertension patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Methods A retrospective cohort study of 6552 hypertension patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery (2011 to 2019) was conducted. The primary outcome was AKI as diagnosed with the Kidney Disease-Improving Global Outcomes criteria and the primary exposure was intraoperative hypotension. Patients' baseline demographics, pre- and post-operative data were harvested and then analyzed with multivariable logistic regression to assess the exposure-outcome relationship. Results Among 6552 hypertension patients, 579 (8.84%) had postoperative AKI after non-cardiac surgery. The proportions of patients admitted to ICU (3.97 vs. 1.24%, p < 0.001) and experiencing all-cause death (2.76 vs. 0.80%, p < 0.001) were higher in the patients with postoperative AKI. Moreover, the patients with postoperative AKI had longer hospital stays (13.50 vs. 12.00 days, p < 0.001). Intraoperative mean arterial pressure (MAP) < 60 mmHg for >20 min was an independent risk factor of postoperative AKI. Furthermore, MAP <60 mmHg for >10 min was also an independent risk factor of postoperative AKI in patients whose MAP was measured invasively in the subgroup analysis. Conclusions Our work suggested that MAP < 60 mmHg for >10 min measured invasively or 20 min measured non-invasively during non-cardiac surgery may be the threshold of postoperative AKI development in hypertension patients. This work may serve as a perioperative management guide for chronic hypertension patients. Trial registration clinical trial number: ChiCTR2100050209 (8/22/2021). http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=132277.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin Li
- Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Yeshuo Ma
- Department of Geriatrics, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Yang Li
- Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Wen Ouyang
- Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Zongdao Liu
- Department of Geriatrics, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Xing Liu
- Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Bo Li
- Operation Center, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Jie Xiao
- Department of Emergency, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
| | - Daqing Ma
- Division of Anesthetics, Pain Medicine & Intensive Care, Department of Surgery and Cancer, Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Yongzhong Tang
- Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
- Clinical Research Center, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, China
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Cao S, Hu Y. Creating machine learning models that interpretably link systemic inflammatory index, sex steroid hormones, and dietary antioxidants to identify gout using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method. Front Immunol 2024; 15:1367340. [PMID: 38751428 PMCID: PMC11094226 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2024.1367340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The relationship between systemic inflammatory index (SII), sex steroid hormones, dietary antioxidants (DA), and gout has not been determined. We aim to develop a reliable and interpretable machine learning (ML) model that links SII, sex steroid hormones, and DA to gout identification. Methods The dataset we used to study the relationship between SII, sex steroid hormones, DA, and gout was from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Six ML models were developed to identify gout by SII, sex steroid hormones, and DA. The seven performance discriminative features of each model were summarized, and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with the best overall performance was selected to identify gout. We used the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method to explain the XGBoost model and its decision-making process. Results An initial survey of 20,146 participants resulted in 8,550 being included in the study. Selecting the best performing XGBoost model associated with SII, sex steroid hormones, and DA to identify gout (male: AUC: 0.795, 95% CI: 0.746- 0.843, accuracy: 98.7%; female: AUC: 0.822, 95% CI: 0.754- 0.883, accuracy: 99.2%). In the male group, The SHAP values showed that the lower feature values of lutein + zeaxanthin (LZ), vitamin C (VitC), lycopene, zinc, total testosterone (TT), vitamin E (VitE), and vitamin A (VitA), the greater the positive effect on the model output. In the female group, SHAP values showed that lower feature values of E2, zinc, lycopene, LZ, TT, and selenium had a greater positive effect on model output. Conclusion The interpretable XGBoost model demonstrated accuracy, efficiency, and robustness in identifying associations between SII, sex steroid hormones, DA, and gout in participants. Decreased TT in males and decreased E2 in females may be associated with gout, and increased DA intake and decreased SII may reduce the potential risk of gout.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shunshun Cao
- Pediatric Endocrinology, Genetics and Metabolism, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yangyang Hu
- Reproductive Medicine Center, Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
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Mohammad Ismail A, Forssten MP, Hildebrand F, Sarani B, Ioannidis I, Cao Y, Ribeiro MAF, Mohseni S. Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2024; 50:523-530. [PMID: 38170276 PMCID: PMC11035445 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-023-02413-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries. METHODS All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding. RESULTS A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score. CONCLUSION The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Maximilian Peter Forssten
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Frank Hildebrand
- Department of Orthopedics, Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, University Hospital RWTH Aachen, Pauwelsstrasse 30, 52074, Aachen, Germany
| | - Babak Sarani
- Center of Trauma and Critical Care, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Ioannis Ioannidis
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Marcelo A F Ribeiro
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Khalifa University and Gulf Medical University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82, Orebro, Sweden.
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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Alabbasy MM, Elsisy AAE, Mahmoud A, Alhanafy SS. Comparison between P-POSSUM and NELA risk score for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in Egyptian patients. BMC Surg 2023; 23:286. [PMID: 37735646 PMCID: PMC10512606 DOI: 10.1186/s12893-023-02189-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) is one of the scores that is used most frequently for determining the likelihood of mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) presents a novel and validated score. Therefore, we aimed to compare the performance of the NELA and P-POSSUM mortality risk scores in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. METHODS Between August 2020 and October 2022, this cohort study was undertaken at Menoufia University Hospital. We compared the P-POSSUM, preoperative NELA, and postoperative NELA scores in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. All variables needed to calculate the used scores were collected. The outcomes included the death rates at 30 and 90 days. By calculating the area under the curve (AUC) for every mortality instrument, the discrimination of the various methods was evaluated and compared. RESULTS Data from 670 patients were included. The observed risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality was 10.3% (69/670) and 13.13% (88/670), respectively. Concerning 30-day mortality, the AUC was 0.774 for the preoperative NELA score, 0.763 for the preoperative P-POSSUM score, and 0.780 for the postoperative NELA score. Regarding 90-day mortality, the AUCs for the preoperative NELA score, preoperative P-POSSUM score, and postoperative NELA score were 0.649 (0.581-0.717), 0.782 (0.737-0.828), and 0.663 (0.608-0.718), respectively. There was noticeable difference in the three models' capacity for discrimination, according to pairwise comparisons. CONCLUSIONS The probability of 30-day and 90-day death across the entire population was underestimated by the NELA and P-POSSUM scores. There was discernible difference in predictive performance between the two scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahmoud Magdy Alabbasy
- Department of General Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Menoufia University, Shebin-Elkom, Menoufia, Egypt.
| | - Alaa Abd Elazim Elsisy
- Department of General Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Menoufia University, Shebin-Elkom, Menoufia, Egypt
| | - Adel Mahmoud
- Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery Fellow, Swansea Bay University Health Board, Swansea, UK
| | - Saad Soliman Alhanafy
- Department of General Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Menoufia University, Shebin-Elkom, Menoufia, Egypt
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Sandy-Hodgetts K, Assadian O, Wainwright TW, Rochon M, Van Der Merwe Z, Jones RM, Serena T, Alves P, Smith G. Clinical prediction models and risk tools for early detection of patients at risk of surgical site infection and surgical wound dehiscence: a scoping review. J Wound Care 2023; 32:S4-S12. [PMID: 37591662 DOI: 10.12968/jowc.2023.32.sup8a.s4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/19/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Despite advances in surgical techniques, intraoperative practice and a plethora of advanced wound therapies, surgical wound complications (SWCs), such as surgical site infection (SSI) and surgical wound dehiscence (SWD), continue to pose a considerable burden to the patient and healthcare setting. Predicting those patients at risk of a SWC may give patients and healthcare providers the opportunity to implement a tailored prevention plan or potentially ameliorate known risk factors to improve patient postoperative outcomes. METHOD A scoping review of the literature for studies which reported predictive power and internal/external validity of risk tools for clinical use in predicting patients at risk of SWCs after surgery was conducted. An electronic search of three databases and two registries was carried out with date restrictions. The search terms included 'prediction surgical site infection' and 'prediction surgical wound dehiscence'. RESULTS A total of 73 records were identified from the database search, of which six studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, the majority of validated risk tools were predominantly within the cardiothoracic domain, and targeted morbidity and mortality outcomes. There were four risk tools specifically targeting SWCs following surgery. CONCLUSION The findings of this review have highlighted an absence of well-developed risk tools specifically for SSI and/or SWD in most surgical populations. This review suggests that further research is required for the development and clinical implementation of rigorously validated and fit-for-purpose risk tools for predicting patients at risk of SWCs following surgery. The ability to predict such patients enables the implementation of preventive strategies, such as the use of prophylactic antibiotics, delayed timing of surgery, or advanced wound therapies following a procedure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kylie Sandy-Hodgetts
- Program Lead, Skin Integrity Research Group, Centre for Molecular Medicine & Innovative Therapeutics, Health Futures Institute Murdoch University, Perth, WA, Australia
- Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Ojan Assadian
- Medical Director, Regional Hospital Wiener Neustadt, Austria
- Institute for Skin Integrity and Infection Prevention, School of Human and Health Sciences, University of Huddersfield, UK
| | - Thomas W Wainwright
- Professor of Orthopaedics, Orthopaedic Research Institute, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK
- Physiotherapy Department, University Hospitals Dorset NHS Foundation Trust, Bournemouth, UK
| | - Melissa Rochon
- Trust Lead for SSI Surveillance, Research & Innovation Surveillance and Innovation Unit, Directorate of Infection, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, UK
| | | | | | | | - Paulo Alves
- Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Health, Wounds Research Lab, Portugal
| | - George Smith
- Vascular Surgery Unit, Hull York Medical School, York, UK
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Henn J, Hatterscheidt S, Sahu A, Buness A, Dohmen J, Arensmeyer J, Feodorovici P, Sommer N, Schmidt J, Kalff JC, Matthaei H. Machine Learning for Decision-Support in Acute Abdominal Pain - Proof of Concept and Central Considerations. Zentralbl Chir 2023; 148:376-383. [PMID: 37562397 DOI: 10.1055/a-2125-1559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
Acute abdominal pain is a common presenting symptom in the emergency department and represents heterogeneous causes and diagnoses. There is often a decision to be made regarding emergency surgical care. Machine learning (ML) could be used here as a decision-support and relieve the time and personnel resource shortage.Patients with acute abdominal pain presenting to the Department of Surgery at Bonn University Hospital in 2020 and 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical parameters as well as laboratory values were used as predictors. After randomly splitting into a training and test data set (ratio 80 to 20), three ML algorithms were comparatively trained and validated. The entire procedure was repeated 20 times.A total of 1357 patients were identified and included in the analysis, with one in five (n = 276, 20.3%) requiring emergency abdominal surgery within 24 hours. Patients operated on were more likely to be male (p = 0.026), older (p = 0.006), had more gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea: p < 0.001, vomiting p < 0.001) as well as a more recent onset of pain (p < 0.001). Tenderness (p < 0.001) and guarding (p < 0.001) were more common in surgically treated patients and blood analyses showed increased inflammation levels (white blood cell count: p < 0.001, CRP: p < 0.001) and onset of organ dysfunction (creatinine: p < 0.014, quick p < 0.001). Of the three trained algorithms, the tree-based methods (h2o random forest and cforest) showed the best performance. The algorithms classified patients, i.e., predicted surgery, with a median AUC ROC of 0.81 and 0.79 and AUC PRC of 0.56 in test sets.A proof-of-concept was achieved with the development of an ML model for predicting timely surgical therapy for acute abdomen. The ML algorithm can be a valuable tool in decision-making. Especially in the context of heavily used medical resources, the algorithm can help to use these scarce resources more effectively. Technological progress, especially regarding artificial intelligence, increasingly enables evidence-based approaches in surgery but requires a strictly interdisciplinary approach. In the future, the use and handling of ML should be integrated into surgical training.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonas Henn
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Simon Hatterscheidt
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Anshupa Sahu
- Institute for Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Institute for Genomic Statistics and Bioinformatics, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Andreas Buness
- Institute for Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Institute for Genomic Statistics and Bioinformatics, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jonas Dohmen
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jan Arensmeyer
- Division of Thoracic Surgery, Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Philipp Feodorovici
- Division of Thoracic Surgery, Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Nils Sommer
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Joachim Schmidt
- Division of Thoracic Surgery, Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Helios Hospital Bonn Rhein-Sieg, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jörg C Kalff
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Hanno Matthaei
- Department of General, Visceral, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
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Shekar N, Debata PK, Debata I, Nair P, Rao LS, Shekar P. Use of POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Study of Mortality and Morbidity) and Portsmouth-POSSUM for Surgical Assessment in Patients Undergoing Emergency Abdominal Surgeries. Cureus 2023; 15:e40850. [PMID: 37489217 PMCID: PMC10363332 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.40850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/26/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Study of Mortality and Morbidity) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) models have been popularly recommended as appropriate for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in surgical practice. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and accuracy of both scoring systems for surgical risk assessment in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgeries. METHODOLOGY The study was conducted as a part of a post-doctoral fellowship program. A total of 150 patients, undergoing emergency abdominal surgery in a tertiary care hospital in Bhubaneswar, were evaluated using POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Physiological scoring was done prior to surgery and operative scoring was performed intra-operatively. Patients were followed up for 30 days after the operative period. The observed mortality rate was then compared with POSSUM and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rates. RESULTS POSSUM predicted a morbidity rate of 116, whereas the actual morbidity rate was 92 (p < 0.05). P-POSSUM predicted a morbidity rate of 109, whereas the actual morbidity rate was 92 (p < 0.05). POSSUM predicted a mortality rate of 23, whereas the actual mortality rate was 21 (p < 0.05). P-POSSUM predicted a mortality rate of 25, whereas the actual mortality rate was 21 (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS With a reasonably good prediction of morbidity and mortality rate, POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores are both effective scoring systems in clinical practice for use in abdominal surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nithya Shekar
- General Surgery, Vydehi Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Bengaluru, IND
| | - P K Debata
- General Surgery, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Ipsita Debata
- Community and Family Medicine, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Pallavi Nair
- General Surgery, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Lakshmi S Rao
- General Surgery, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, IND
| | - Prithvi Shekar
- General Surgery, Vydehi Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Center, Bengaluru, IND
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Bass GA, Duffy CC, Kaplan LJ, Sarani B, Martin ND, Ismail AM, Cao Y, Forssten MP, Mohseni S. The revised cardiac risk index is associated with morbidity and mortality independent of injury severity in elderly patients with rib fractures. Injury 2023; 54:56-62. [PMID: 36402584 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2022.11.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Revised: 10/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk factors for mortality and in-hospital morbidity among geriatric patients with traumatic rib fractures remain unclear. Such patients are often frail and demonstrate a high comorbidity burden. Moreover, outcomes anticipated by current rubrics may reflect the influence of multisystem injury or surgery, and thus not apply to isolated injuries in geriatric patients. We hypothesized that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) may assist in risk-stratifying geriatric patients following rib fracture. METHODS All geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) with a conservatively managed rib fracture owing to an isolated thoracic injury (thorax AIS ≥1), in the 2013-2019 TQIP database were assessed including demographics and outcomes. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital morbidity as well as mortality was analyzed using Poisson regression models while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS 96,750 geriatric patients sustained rib fractures. Compared to those with RCRI 0, patients with an RCRI score of 1 had a 16% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted incidence rate ratio (adj-IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 (1.02-1.32), p=0.020]. An RCRI score of 2 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.44-2.06), p<0.001] or ≥3 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 3.07 (2.31-4.09), p<0.001] was associated with an even greater mortality risk. Those with an increased RCRI also exhibited a higher incidence of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, stroke, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Geriatric patients with rib fractures and an RCRI ≥1 represent a vulnerable and high-risk group. This index may inform the decision to admit for inpatient care and can also guide patient and family counseling as well as computer-based decision-support.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gary Alan Bass
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden; Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (LDI), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Center for Peri-Operative Outcomes Research and Transformation (CPORT), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | - Caoimhe C Duffy
- Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (LDI), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Center for Peri-Operative Outcomes Research and Transformation (CPORT), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | - Lewis J Kaplan
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA; Corporal Michael Cresenscz Veterans Affairs Medical Center (CMCVAMC), Philadelphia, USA
| | - Babak Sarani
- Center for Trauma and Critical Care, George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Washington D.C., USA
| | - Niels D Martin
- Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
| | | | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | | | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden; Division of Trauma & Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.
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Applying Evidence-based Principles to Guide Emergency Surgery in Older Adults. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2022; 23:537-546. [PMID: 35304130 DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2022.02.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Revised: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Although outcomes for older adults undergoing elective surgery are generally comparable to younger patients, outcomes associated with emergency surgery are poor. These adverse outcomes are in part because of the physiologic changes associated with aging, increased odds of comorbidities in older adults, and a lower probability of presenting with classic "red flag" physical examination findings. Existing evidence-based perioperative best practice guidelines perform better for elective compared with emergency surgery; so, decision making for older adults undergoing emergency surgery can be challenging for surgeons and other clinicians and may rely on subjective experience. To aid surgical decision making, clinicians should assess premorbid functional status, evaluate for the presence of geriatric syndromes, and consider social determinants of health. Documentation of care preferences and a surrogate decision maker are critical. In discussing the risks and benefits of surgery, patient-centered narrative formats with inclusion of geriatric-specific outcomes are important. Use of risk calculators can be meaningful, although limitations exist. After surgery, daily evaluation for common postoperative complications should be considered, as well as early discharge planning and palliative care consultation, if appropriate. The role of the geriatrician in emergency surgery for older adults may vary based on the acuity of patient presentation, but perioperative consultation and comanagement are strongly recommended to optimize care delivery and patient outcomes.
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Kuno T, Mikami T, Sahashi Y, Numasawa Y, Suzuki M, Noma S, Fukuda K, Kohsaka S. Machine learning prediction model of acute kidney injury after percutaneous coronary intervention. Sci Rep 2022; 12:749. [PMID: 35031637 PMCID: PMC8760264 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04372-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Acute kidney injury (AKI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. The traditional risk model provided by the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) is useful for predicting the preprocedural risk of AKI, although the scoring system requires a number of clinical contents. We sought to examine whether machine learning (ML) techniques could predict AKI with fewer NCDR-AKI risk model variables within a comparable PCI database in Japan. We evaluated 19,222 consecutive patients undergoing PCI between 2008 and 2019 in a Japanese multicenter registry. AKI was defined as an absolute or a relative increase in serum creatinine of 0.3 mg/dL or 50%. The data were split into training (N = 16,644; 2008-2017) and testing datasets (N = 2578; 2017-2019). The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using the light gradient boosting model (GBM) with selected variables by Lasso and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) methods among 12 traditional variables, excluding the use of an intra-aortic balloon pump, since its use was considered operator-dependent. The incidence of AKI was 9.4% in the cohort. Lasso and SHAP methods demonstrated that seven variables (age, eGFR, preprocedural hemoglobin, ST-elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction/unstable angina, heart failure symptoms, and cardiogenic shock) were pertinent. AUC calculated by the light GBM with seven variables had a performance similar to that of the conventional logistic regression prediction model that included 12 variables (light GBM, AUC [training/testing datasets]: 0.779/0.772; logistic regression, AUC [training/testing datasets]: 0.797/0.755). The AKI risk model after PCI using ML enabled adequate risk quantification with fewer variables. ML techniques may aid in enhancing the international use of validated risk models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toshiki Kuno
- Division of Cardiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, 111 East 210th St, Bronx, NY, 10467-2401, USA.
| | - Takahisa Mikami
- Department of Neurology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Yuki Sahashi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Gifu Heart Center, Gifu, Japan.,Department of Cardiology, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, Japan.,Department of Health Data Science, Graduate School of Data Science, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Yohei Numasawa
- Department of Cardiology, Japanese Red Cross Ashikaga Hospital, Ashikaga, Japan
| | - Masahiro Suzuki
- Department of Cardiology, Saitama National Hospital, Wako, Japan
| | - Shigetaka Noma
- Department of Cardiology, Saiseikai Utsunomiya Hospital, Utsunomiya, Japan
| | - Keiichi Fukuda
- Department of Cardiology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shun Kohsaka
- Department of Cardiology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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11
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Bektaş M, Tuynman JB, Costa Pereira J, Burchell GL, van der Peet DL. Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Surgical Outcomes after Colorectal Surgery: A Systematic Review. World J Surg 2022; 46:3100-3110. [PMID: 36109367 PMCID: PMC9636121 DOI: 10.1007/s00268-022-06728-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) has been introduced in various fields of healthcare. In colorectal surgery, the role of ML has yet to be reported. In this systematic review, an overview of machine learning models predicting surgical outcomes after colorectal surgery is provided. METHODS Databases PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Web of Science were searched for studies using machine learning models for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. To be eligible for inclusion, studies needed to apply machine learning models for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Absence of machine learning or colorectal surgery or studies reporting on reviews, children, study abstracts were excluded. The Probast risk of bias tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of machine learning models. RESULTS A total of 1821 studies were analysed, resulting in the inclusion of 31 articles. A vast proportion of ML algorithms have been used to predict the course of disease and response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Radiomics have been applied most frequently, along with predictive accuracies up to 91%. However, most studies included a retrospective study design without external validation or calibration. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning models have shown promising potential in predicting surgical outcomes after colorectal surgery. However, large-scale data is warranted to bridge the gap between calibration and external validation. Clinical implementation is needed to demonstrate the contribution of ML within daily practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mustafa Bektaş
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jurriaan B. Tuynman
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jaime Costa Pereira
- Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - George L. Burchell
- Medical Library, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Donald L. van der Peet
- Department of Surgery, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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12
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Hacım NA, Akbaş A, Ulgen Y, Aktokmakyan TV, Meric S, Tokocin M, Karabay O, Ercan G, Altinel Y. Association of preoperative risk factors and mortality in elderly patients with emergency abdominal surgery: A retrospective cohort study. Ann Geriatr Med Res 2021; 25:252-259. [PMID: 34871476 PMCID: PMC8749040 DOI: 10.4235/agmr.21.0104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Older patients undergoing emergency laparotomy have high morbidity and mortality rates. Preoperative risk assessment with good predictors is an appropriate measure in this population. Frailty status is significantly associated with postoperative outcomes in older adults. This study aimed to investigate the effect of preoperative risk factors and frailty on short-term outcomes following emergency surgery for acute abdomen in older patients. Methods This study included older patients (≥65 years of age) who underwent emergency abdominal surgery. We retrospectively analyzed their demographic and clinical variables and used the modified Frailty Index-11 to evaluate their frailty status. The primary outcome was the 30-day mortality rate. We also analyzed risk factors of mortality in these patients. Results The study included 150 patients with a median age of 74 years. The mortality rate was 17.3% (n=26). We observed significantly higher mortality rates in patients who were obese and who had higher American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA grades) (p<0.05). Frailty status was worse in deceased group (p<0.001), when compared to individuals who survived. Septic shock was associated with the development of mortality (p<0.001). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that ASA grade was the only independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio=19.642; 95% confidence interval, 3.886–99.274; p<0.001). Conclusion Older patients with obesity and frailty presenting with higher ASA grades and septic shock had the worst survival following emergency abdominal surgery. The ASA grade was an independent risk factor for mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadir Adnan Hacım
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | - Ahmet Akbaş
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | - Yigit Ulgen
- Department of Pathology, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | | | - Serhat Meric
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | - Merve Tokocin
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | - Onder Karabay
- Department of General Surgery, Beykent University, Istanbul
| | - Gulcin Ercan
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
| | - Yuksel Altinel
- Department of General Surgery, Bagcilar Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul
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13
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Machine learning to guide clinical decision-making in abdominal surgery-a systematic literature review. Langenbecks Arch Surg 2021; 407:51-61. [PMID: 34716472 PMCID: PMC8847247 DOI: 10.1007/s00423-021-02348-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE An indication for surgical therapy includes balancing benefits against risk, which remains a key task in all surgical disciplines. Decisions are oftentimes based on clinical experience while guidelines lack evidence-based background. Various medical fields capitalized the application of machine learning (ML), and preliminary research suggests promising implications in surgeons' workflow. Hence, we evaluated ML's contemporary and possible future role in clinical decision-making (CDM) focusing on abdominal surgery. METHODS Using the PICO framework, relevant keywords and research questions were identified. Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systemic search strategy in the PubMed database was conducted. Results were filtered by distinct criteria and selected articles were manually full text reviewed. RESULTS Literature review revealed 4,396 articles, of which 47 matched the search criteria. The mean number of patients included was 55,843. A total of eight distinct ML techniques were evaluated whereas AUROC was applied by most authors for comparing ML predictions vs. conventional CDM routines. Most authors (N = 30/47, 63.8%) stated ML's superiority in the prediction of benefits and risks of surgery. The identification of highly relevant parameters to be integrated into algorithms allowing a more precise prognosis was emphasized as the main advantage of ML in CDM. CONCLUSIONS A potential value of ML for surgical decision-making was demonstrated in several scientific articles. However, the low number of publications with only few collaborative studies between surgeons and computer scientists underpins the early phase of this highly promising field. Interdisciplinary research initiatives combining existing clinical datasets and emerging techniques of data processing may likely improve CDM in abdominal surgery in the future.
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14
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Kuno T, Sahashi Y, Kawahito S, Takahashi M, Iwagami M, Egorova NN. Prediction of in-hospital mortality with machine learning for COVID-19 patients treated with steroid and remdesivir. J Med Virol 2021; 94:958-964. [PMID: 34647622 PMCID: PMC8662043 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 09/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
We aimed to create the prediction model of in-hospital mortality using machine learning methods for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treated with steroid and remdesivir. We reviewed 1571 hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 from the Mount Sinai Health System treated with both steroids and remdesivir. The important variables associated with in-hospital mortality were identified using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) through the light gradient boosting model (GBM). The data before February 17th, 2021 (N = 769) was randomly split into training and testing datasets; 80% versus 20%, respectively. Light GBM models were created with train data and area under the curves (AUCs) were calculated. Additionally, we calculated AUC with the data between February 17th, 2021 and March 30th, 2021 (N = 802). Of the 1571 patients admitted due to COVID-19, 331 (21.1%) died during hospitalization. Through LASSO and SHAP, we selected six important variables; age, hypertension, oxygen saturation, blood urea nitrogen, intensive care unit admission, and endotracheal intubation. AUCs using training and testing datasets derived from the data before February 17th, 2021 were 0.871/0.911. Additionally, the light GBM model has high predictability for the latest data (AUC: 0.881) (https://risk-model.herokuapp.com/covid). A high-value prediction model was created to estimate in-hospital mortality for COVID-19 patients treated with steroid and remdesivir.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toshiki Kuno
- Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Mount Sinai Beth Israel, New York City, New York, USA.,Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein Medical College, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Yuki Sahashi
- Department of Cardiology, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, Japan.,Department of Health Data Science, Graduate School of Data Science, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan.,Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Gifu Heart Center, Gifu, Japan
| | | | - Mai Takahashi
- Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Mount Sinai Beth Israel, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Masao Iwagami
- Department of Health Services Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Natalia N Egorova
- Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, New York, USA
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15
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Alexandre L, Costa RS, Santos LL, Henriques R. Mining Pre-Surgical Patterns Able to Discriminate Post-Surgical Outcomes in the Oncological Domain. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2021; 25:2421-2434. [PMID: 33687853 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2021.3064786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the individualized risks of undertaking surgical procedures is essential to personalize preparatory, intervention and post-care protocols for minimizing post-surgical complications. This knowledge is key in oncology given the nature of interventions, the fragile profile of patients with comorbidities and cytotoxic drug exposure, and the possible cancer recurrence. Despite its relevance, the discovery of discriminative patterns of post-surgical risk is hampered by major challenges: i) the unique physiological and demographic profile of individuals, as well as their differentiated post-surgical care; ii) the high-dimensionality and heterogeneous nature of available biomedical data, combining non-identically distributed risk factors, clinical and molecular variables; iii) the need to generalize tumors have significant histopathological differences and individuals undertake unique surgical procedures; iv) the need to focus on non-trivial patterns of post-surgical risk, while guaranteeing their statistical significance and discriminative power; and v) the lack of interpretability and actionability of current approaches. Biclustering, the discovery of groups of individuals correlated on subsets of variables, has unique properties of interest, being positioned to satisfy the aforementioned challenges. In this context, this work proposes a structured view on why, when and how to apply biclustering to mine discriminative patterns of post-surgical risk with guarantees of usability, a subject remaining unexplored up to date. These patterns offer a comprehensive view on how the patient profile, cancer histopathology and entailed surgical procedures determine: i) post-surgical complications, ii) survival, and iii) hospitalization needs. The gathered results confirm the role of biclustering in comprehensively finding interpretable, actionable and statistically significant patterns of post-surgical risk. The found patterns are already assisting healthcare professionals at IPO-Porto to establish specialized pre-habilitation protocols and bedside care.
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16
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Bass GA, Forssten M, Pourlotfi A, Ahl Hulme R, Cao Y, Matthiessen P, Mohseni S. Cardiac risk stratification in emergency resection for colonic tumours. BJS Open 2021; 5:6316195. [PMID: 34228103 PMCID: PMC8259498 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrab057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Despite advances in perioperative care, the postoperative mortality rate after emergency oncological colonic resection remains high. Risk stratification may allow targeted perioperative optimization and cardiac risk stratification. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), a user-friendly tool, could identify patients who would benefit most from perioperative cardiac risk mitigation. Methods Patients who underwent emergency resection for colonic cancer from 2007 to 2017 and registered in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR) were analysed retrospectively. These patients were cross-referenced by social security number to the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare data set, a government registry of mortality, and co-morbidity data. RCRI scores were calculated for each patient and correlated with 90-day postoperative mortality risk, using Poisson regression with robust error of variance. Results Some 5703 patients met the study inclusion criteria. A linear increase in crude 90-day postoperative mortality was detected with increasing RCRI score (37.3 versus 11.3 per cent for RCRI 4 or more versus RCRI 1; P < 0.001). The adjusted 90-day all-cause mortality risk was also significantly increased (RCRI 4 or more versus RCRI 1: adjusted incidence rate ratio 2.07, 95 per cent c.i. 1.49 to 2.89; P < 0.001). Conclusion This study documented an association between increasing cardiac risk and 90-day postoperative mortality. Those undergoing emergency colorectal surgery for cancer with a raised RCRI score should be considered high-risk patients who would most likely benefit from enhanced postoperative monitoring and critical care expertise.
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Affiliation(s)
- G A Bass
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - M Forssten
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
| | - A Pourlotfi
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
| | - R Ahl Hulme
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Surgery, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Y Cao
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - P Matthiessen
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
| | - S Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden.,Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
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17
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Bass GA, Gillis AE, Cao Y, Mohseni S. Patients over 65 years with Acute Complicated Calculous Biliary Disease are Treated Differently-Results and Insights from the ESTES Snapshot Audit. World J Surg 2021; 45:2046-2055. [PMID: 33813631 PMCID: PMC8154793 DOI: 10.1007/s00268-021-06052-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accrued comorbidities are perceived to increase operative risk. Surgeons may offer operative treatments less often to their older patients with acute complicated calculous biliary disease (ACCBD). We set out to capture ACCBD incidence in older patients across Europe and the currently used treatment algorithms. METHODS The European Society of Trauma and Emergency Surgery (ESTES) undertook a snapshot audit of patients undergoing emergency hospital admission for ACCBD between October 1 and 31 2018, comparing patients under and ≥ 65 years. Mortality, postoperative complications, time to operative intervention, post-acute disposition, and length of hospital stay (LOS) were compared between groups. Within the ≥ 65 cohort, comorbidity burden, mortality, LOS, and disposition outcomes were further compared between patients undergoing operative and non-operative management. RESULTS The median age of the 338 admitted patients was 67 years; 185 patients (54.7%) of these were the age of 65 or over. Significantly fewer patients ≥ 65 underwent surgical treatment (37.8% vs. 64.7%, p < 0.001). Surgical complications were more frequent in the ≥ 65 cohort than younger patients, and the mean postoperative LOS was significantly longer. Postoperative mortality was seen in 2.2% of patients ≥ 65 (vs. 0.7%, p = 0.253). However, operated elderly patients did not differ from non-operated in terms of comorbidity burden, mortality, LOS, or post-discharge rehabilitation need. CONCLUSIONS Few elderly patients receive surgical treatment for ACCBD. Expectedly, postoperative morbidity, LOS, and the requirement for post-discharge rehabilitation are higher in the elderly than younger patients but do not differ from elderly patients managed non-operatively. With multidisciplinary perioperative optimization, elderly patients may be safely offered optimal treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov (Trial # NCT03610308).
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Affiliation(s)
- Gary A. Bass
- Division of Traumatology, Emergency Surgery & Surgical Critical Care, Penn Presbyterian Medical Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81 Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Surgery, Tallaght University Hospital, Dublin 24, Ireland
| | - Amy E. Gillis
- Department of Surgery, Tallaght University Hospital, Dublin 24, Ireland
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82 Orebro, Sweden
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 702 81 Orebro, Sweden
- Division of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Department of Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, 701 85 Orebro, Sweden
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18
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Tang Y, Li H, Guo Z. Prediction of ICU admission after orthopedic surgery in elderly patients. Pak J Med Sci 2021; 37:1179-1184. [PMID: 34290804 PMCID: PMC8281162 DOI: 10.12669/pjms.37.4.3371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2020] [Revised: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives: Prediction of ICU admission after surgery are important for rational decision-making for different patients in clinical practice. Little information is available about the risk factors of postoperative ICU admission in elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. This study aimed to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative ICU admission in elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods: A total of 2826 cases of elderly patients receiving orthopedic surgery from October 2010 to September 2016 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the impacts of covariates. Support vector machine (SVM) was employed to develop a predictive model based on all pre-operative covariates and the demographic information. Results: There were 256 patients transferred to ICU after surgery. ASA III or IV and emergency surgery were found to be independent risk factors while neuraxial anesthesia and joint surgery were protective factors. In addition, a SVM-based predictive model was developed, which had a sensitivity of 90.99%, a specificity of 99.10% and an area under ROC curve of 0.9678. Conclusions: Our study revealed that emergency surgery, anesthesia method, surgery type and ASA grade were risk factors to predict postoperative ICU admission in elderly orthopedic patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongzhong Tang
- Dr. Yongzhong Tang, MD. Department of Anesthesiology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Hao Li
- Dr. Hao Li, MD. Intensive Care Unit, Taikang Xianlin Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing, China
| | - Ziyi Guo
- Dr. Ziyi Guo, MM. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Shulan (Hangzhou) Hospital, Hangzhou, China. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
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