Impact of preventive primary care on children's unplanned hospital admissions: a population-based birth cohort study of UK children 2000-2013

Ethnic inequities in 6-8 week baby check coverage in England 2006- 2021: a cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

Inequities in the coverage of 6-8-week maternal checks, health visitor reviews, and infant vaccinations have been reported in England. Ethnic inequities in 6-8-week baby checks have not been studied nationally.

AIM

To examine the effect of maternal ethnicity on 6-8 week baby check coverage in England 2006-2021.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This cohort study used electronic health records from primary care in England.

METHOD

Baby check coverage was calculated in 16 ethnic groups, by year and region. Risk ratios were estimated using modified Poisson regression. Coverage and timing of baby checks in relation to maternal checks and infant vaccinations by ethnic group were calculated.

RESULTS

Ethnic inequities in 6-8 week baby check coverage in England varied by year and region. Coverage increased 2006-2007 to 2015-2016, then stabilised to 80-90% for most groups. Coverage was lowest for Bangladeshi and Pakistani groups 2006-2007 to 2011-2012. In the West Midlands, coverage was lowest at approximately 60% for four groups: Bangladeshi, Caribbean, African, and Any other Black, African or Caribbean background. In the North West, coverage was lowest for Bangladeshi (65.3%) and Pakistani (69.2%) groups. These patterns remained after adjusting for other factors and persisted over time. Coverage was highest in those whose mothers received a maternal check and those who received at least one dose of 8-week infant vaccinations.

CONCLUSION

Coordinated action at the level of integrated commissioning boards, primary care networks, and GP practices is required to better understand the reasons behind these inequities and redress the persistent disparities in 6-8 week baby check coverage.

Implementing Inpatient Social Needs Screening in an Urban Tertiary Care Children's Hospital

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends screening for unmet social needs, and the literature on inpatient screening implementation is growing. Our aim was to use quality improvement methods to implement standardized social needs screening in hospitalized pediatric patients.

METHODS

We implemented inpatient social needs screening using the Model for Improvement. An interprofessional team trialed interventions in a cyclical manner using plan-do-study-act cycles. Interventions included a structured screening questionnaire, standardized screening and referrals workflows, electronic health record (EHR) modifications, and house staff education, deliberate practice, and feedback. The primary outcome measure was the percentage of discharged patients screened for social needs. Screening for social needs was defined as a completed EHR screening questionnaire or a full social work evaluation. Process and balancing measures were collected to capture data on screening questionnaire completion and social work consultations. Data were plotted on statistical process control charts and analyzed for special cause variation.

RESULTS

The mean monthly percentage of patients screened for social needs improved from 20% at baseline to 51% during the intervention period. Special cause variation was observed for the percentage of patients with completed social needs screening, EHR-documented screening questionnaires, and social work consults.

CONCLUSIONS

Social needs screening during pediatric hospitalization can be implemented by using quality improvement methods. The next steps should be focused on sustainability and the spread of screening. Interventions with greater involvement of interdisciplinary health care team members will foster process sustainability and allow for the spread of screening interventions to the wider hospitalized pediatric population.

Factors that affect GP referral of a child with intellectual disability for a mild illness: A discrete choice experiment

BACKGROUND

General practitioners (GP) report multiple challenges when treating individuals with intellectual disabilities which may influence referral rates. The study aimed to establish factors that influence GP's decision-making when referring a child with intellectual disabilities to the emergency department.

METHOD

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used in health research to further understand complex decision making. A DCE was designed to assess the relative importance of factors that may influence a GP's (N = 157) decision to refer.

RESULTS

A random parameters model indicated that perceived limited parental capacity to manage an illness was the most important factor in the decision to refer a child to the ED, followed by a repeat visit, a referral request from the parent, and a Friday afternoon appointment.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the factors that influence referral is important for service improvement and to strengthen primary care provision for this population and their families.

Factors associated with hospital admission and 30-day readmission for children less than 18 years of age in 2018 in France: a one-year nationwide observational study

BACKGROUND

Nationwide data for children for short-stay hospitalisation (SSH) and associated factors are scarce. This retrospective study of children in France < 18 years of age followed after their birth or birthday in 2018 focused on at least one annual SSH, stay < 1 night or ≥ 1 night, or 30-day readmission ≥ 1 night.

METHODS

Children were selected from the national health data system (SNDS), which includes data on long-term chronic disease (LTD) status with full reimbursement and complementary universal coverage based on low household income (CMUC). Uni and multivariate quasi-Poisson regression were applied for each outcome.

RESULTS

Among 13.211 million children (94.4% population, 51.2% boys), CMUC was identified for 17.5% and at least one LTD for 4% (0-<1 year: 1.5%; 14-<18 year: 5.2%). The most frequent LTDs were pervasive developmental diseases (0.53%), asthma (0.24%), epilepsy (0.17%), and type 1 diabetes (0.15%). At least one SSH was found for 8.8%: SSH < 1 night (4.9%), SSH ≥ 1 night (4.5%), readmission (0.4%). Children with at least one SSH were younger (median 6 vs. 9 years) and more often had CMUC (21%), a LTD (12%), an emergency department (ED) visit (56%), or various primary healthcare visits than all children. Those with a SSH ≥1 night vs. < 1 night were older (median: 9 vs. 4 years). They had the same frequency of LTD (13.4%) but more often an ED visit (78% vs. 42%). Children with readmissions were younger (median 3 years). They had the highest levels of CMUC (29.3%), LTD (34%), EDs in their municipality (35% vs. 29% for the whole population) and ED visits (87%). In adjusted analysis, each outcome was significantly less frequent among girls than boys and more frequent for children with CMUC. LTDs with the largest association with SSH < 1 night were cystic fibrosis, sickle cell diseases (SCD), diabetes type 1, those with SSH ≥1 night type 1 diabetes epilepsy and SCD, and those for readmissions lymphoid leukaemia, malignant neoplasm of the brain, and SCD. Among all SSH admissions of children < 10 years, 25.8% were potentially preventable.

CONCLUSION

Higher SSH and readmission rates were found for children with certain LTD living in low-income households, suggesting the need or increase of specific policy actions and research.

Multicountry review: developmental surveillance, assessment and care by outpatient paediatricians

BACKGROUND

Care of young children with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD) is a major component of paediatric outpatient practice. However, cross-country practice reviews to date have been limited, and available data demonstrate missed opportunities for early identification, particularly in vulnerable population subgroups.

METHODS

Multicountry review of national paediatric body guidance related to developmental surveillance, early identification and early childhood intervention together with review of outpatient paediatrician practices for developmental assessment of children aged 0-5 years with/at risk of NDDs. Review included five countries with comparable nationalised universal child healthcare systems (ie, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the UK). Data were collected using a combination of published and grey literature review, supplemented by additional local sources with descriptive review of relevant data points.

RESULTS

Countries had broadly similar systems for early identification of young children with NDDs alongside universal child health surveillance. However, variation existed in national paediatric guidance, paediatric developmental training and practice, including variable roles of paediatricians in developmental surveillance at primary care level. Data on coverage of developmental surveillance, content and quality of paediatric development assessment practices were notably lacking.

CONCLUSION

Paediatricians play an important role in ensuring equitable access to early identification and intervention for young children with/at risk of NDDs. However, strengthening paediatric outpatient care of children with NDD requires clearer guidance across contexts; training that is responsive to shifting roles within interdisciplinary models of developmental assessment and improved data to enhance equity and quality of developmental assessment for children with/at risk of NDDs.

Child characteristics and health conditions associated with paediatric hospitalisations and length of stay: a population-based study

Background

Paediatric hospital length of stay (LoS) is often used as a benchmark for resource use of hospitalisations. Previous studies have mostly focused on LoS of admissions for specific conditions or medical specialties. We aimed to conduct an evaluation of LoS of all paediatric hospitalisations exploring the frequency and characteristics; and associated childhood conditions.

Methods

This population-based cross-sectional study included all hospital admissions in children aged <16 years between January 2017 and December 2019 in New South Wales, Australia. LoS was categorised into: day or overnight stay, 2-7, 8-21 and ≥ 22 days. Socio-demographic and health service characteristics of each individual admission by LoS and age groups were evaluated.

Findings

A total of 324,083 children had 518,768 admissions comprising 1,064,032 bed days. Most admissions wereday/overnight stays (71.9%) or 2-7 days (25.3%). While LoS >7 days represented 2.8% of total admissions, they accounted for 27% of total bed days. Children aged 1-4 years had the highest proportion of admissions (35%), with a majority lasting ≤7 days, whereas 45.6% of admissions ≥22 days were for children aged ≥12 years. Respiratory conditions, diseases of the digestive system and traumatic injuries were the most common reasons for hospitalization. LoS >7 days were more common in children from most disadvantaged backgrounds, residing further from hospital and those aged ≥12 years with mental health conditions.

Interpretation

The majority of paediatric hospitalizations are for short stay and require programs that target acute conditions that can be managed in primary care. Interventions such as care coordination, tailored models of care and enhanced outpatient/community treatment programs for high-risk groups will help reduce extended LoS and improving child health and well-being.

Funding

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Hospital service use for young people with chronic health conditions: A population-based matched retrospective cohort study

AIM

This study aims to identify the hospitalised morbidity associated with three common chronic health conditions among young people using a population-based matched cohort.

METHODS

A population-level matched case-comparison retrospective cohort study of young people aged ≤18 years hospitalised with asthma, type 1 diabetes (T1D) or epilepsy during 2005-2018 in New South Wales, Australia using linked birth, health and mortality records. The comparison cohort was matched on age, sex and residential postcode. Adjusted rate ratios (ARR) were calculated by sex and age group.

RESULTS

There were 65 055 young people hospitalised with asthma, 6648 with epilepsy, and 2209 with T1D. Young people with epilepsy (ARR 10.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.98-12.02), T1D (ARR 8.64; 95% CI 7.72-9.67) or asthma (ARR 4.39; 95% CI 4.26-4.53) all had a higher risk of hospitalisation than matched peers. Admission risk was highest for males (ARR 11.00; 95% CI 9.64-12.56) and females with epilepsy (ARR 10.83; 95% CI 9.54-12.29) compared to peers. The highest admission risk by age group was for young people aged 10-14 years (ARR 5.50; 95% CI 4.77-6.34) living with asthma, children aged ≤4 years (ARR 12.68; 95% CI 11.35-14.17) for those living with epilepsy, and children aged 5-9 years (ARR 9.12; 95% CI 7.69-10.81) for those living with T1D compared to peers.

CONCLUSIONS

The results will guide health service planning and highlight opportunities for better management of chronic health conditions, such as further care integration between acute, primary and community health services for young people.

Determinants of accident and emergency attendances and emergency admissions in infants: birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is limited understanding of the drivers of increasing infant accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and emergency hospital admissions across England. We examine variations in use of emergency hospital services among infants by local areas in England and investigate the extent to which infant and socio-economic factors explain these variations.

METHODS

Birth cohort study using linked administrative Hospital Episode Statistics data in England. Singleton live births between 1-April-2012 and 31-March-2019 were followed up for 1 year; from 1-April-2013 (from the discharge date of their birth admission) until their first birthday, death or 31-March-2019. Mixed effects negative binomial models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios for A&E attendances and emergency admissions and mixed effects logistic regression models estimated odds ratio of conversion (the proportion of infants subsequently admitted after attending A&E). Models were adjusted for individual-level factors and included a random effect for local authority (LA).

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 3,665,414 births in 150 English LAs. Rates of A&E attendances and emergency admissions were highest amongst: infants born < 32 weeks gestation; with presence of congenital anomaly; and to mothers < 20-years-old. Area-level deprivation was positively associated with A&E attendance rates, but not associated with conversion probability. A&E attendance rates were highest in the North East (916 per 1000 child-years, 95%CI: 911 to 921) and London (876 per 1000, 95%CI: 874 to 879), yet London had the lowest emergency admission rates (232 per 1000, 95%CI: 231 to 234) and conversion probability (25% vs 39% in South West). Adjusting for individual-level factors did not significantly affect variability in A&E attendance and emergency admission rates by local authority.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers of A&E attendances and emergency admissions include individual-level factors such being born premature, with congenital anomaly and from socio-economically disadvantaged young parent families. Support for such vulnerable infants and families should be provided alongside preventative health care in primary and community care settings. The impact of these services requires further investigation. Substantial geographical variations in rates were not explained by individual-level factors. This suggests more detailed understanding of local and underlying service-level factors would provide targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.

Healthcare utilisation and unmet health needs in children with intellectual disability: a propensity score matching approach using longitudinal cohort data

BACKGROUND

Health disparities for children with intellectual disabilities can be challenging to measure due to many other factors that can impact health and healthcare use. The aim of the current study was to use longitudinal cohort data to compare children with intellectual disability (ID) in Ireland between 2006 and 2014 on healthcare utilisation and unmet need, at ages 9 and 13, using a propensity score matching (PSM) approach.

METHODS

Using data from the Growing up in Ireland study, PSM was used to identify an appropriate control sample to compare with a sample of children with ID (n = 124). Participants were matched on variables that are known to influence healthcare utilisation to reduce the impact of confounding variables between groups so that differences between the groups can be estimated. Logistic regression was used to estimate effects at ages 9 and 13.

RESULTS

Children with ID were no more likely to have visited a general practitioner or emergency department in the past 12 months than children without ID. They did have a greater likelihood of visiting a doctor in a hospital in the past 12 months and of having an overnight stay in hospital by age 9. Primary caregivers of children with ID were more likely to report unmet health needs at ages 9 and 13.

CONCLUSIONS

This approach is a novel means of comparing healthcare use in this population by balancing the impact of other factors that may result in inequities, to which children with ID may be more vulnerable.

Impact of covid-19 on primary care contacts with children and young people aged 0-24 years in England; longitudinal trends study 2015-2020

Background: The NHS response to covid-19 altered provision and access to primary care. Aim: To examine the impact of covid-19 on general practitioner (GP) contacts with children and young people in England. Design and Setting: Longitudinal trends analysis using electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Methods: We included all children and young people younger than 25 years registered with a GP. We compared the number of total, remote and face-to-face contacts during the first UK lockdown (March to June 2020) with the mean contacts for comparable weeks from 2015 to 2019. Results: We examined 47 607 765 GP contacts with 4 307 120 million children and young people. GP contacts fell 41% during the first lockdown compared with previous years. Children aged 1-14 had greater falls in total contacts (>50%) compared with infants and 15-24s. Face-to-face contacts fell by 88% with the greatest falls occurring among children aged 1-14 (> 90%). Remote contacts more than doubled, increasing most in infants (over 2.5 fold). Total contacts for respiratory illnesses fell by 74% whereas contacts for common non-transmissible conditions shifted largely to remote, mitigating the total fall (31%). Conclusion: During the covid-19 pandemic, children and young people’s contact with GPs fell, particularly for face-to-face assessment. This may be explained by a lower prevalence of respiratory illnesses due to fewer social contacts and changing health care seeking behaviour. The large shift to remote contacts mitigated total falls in contacts for some age groups and for common non-transmissible conditions.

Social and ethnic group differences in healthcare use by children aged 0-14 years: a population-based cohort study in England from 2007 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

To describe social and ethnic group differences in children's use of healthcare services in England, from 2007 to 2017.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective cohort study.

SETTING/PATIENTS

We performed individual-level linkage of electronic health records from general practices and hospitals in England by creating an open cohort linking data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics. 1 484 455 children aged 0-14 years were assigned to five composite ethnic groups and five ordered groups based on postcode mapped to index of multiple deprivation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-standardised annual general practitioner (GP) consultation, outpatient attendance, emergency department (ED) visit and emergency and elective hospital admission rates per 1000 child-years.

RESULTS

In 2016/2017, children from the most deprived group had fewer GP consultations (1765 vs 1854 per 1000 child-years) and outpatient attendances than children in the least deprived group (705 vs 741 per 1000 child-years). At the end of the study period, children from the most deprived group had more ED visits (447 vs 314 per 1000 child-years) and emergency admissions (100 vs 76 per 1000 child-years) than children from the least deprived group.In 2016/2017, children from black and Asian ethnic groups had more GP consultations than children from white ethnic groups (1961 and 2397 vs 1824 per 1000 child-years, respectively). However, outpatient attendances were lower in children from black ethnic groups than in children from white ethnic groups (732 vs 809 per 1000 child-years). By 2016/2017, there were no differences in outpatient, ED and in-patient activity between children from white and Asian ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2007 and 2017, children living in more deprived areas of England made greater use of emergency services and received less scheduled care than children from affluent neighbourhoods. Children from Asian and black ethnic groups continued to consult GPs more frequently than children from white ethnic groups, though black children had significantly lower outpatient attendance rates than white children across the study period. Our findings suggest substantial levels of unmet need among children living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Further work is needed to determine if healthcare utilisation among children from Asian and black ethnic groups is proportionate to need.

Impact of Digital Educational Interventions to Support Parents Caring for Acutely Ill Children at Home and Factors That Affect Their Use: Protocol for a Systematic Review

Background

Urgent and emergency care health services are overburdened, and the use of these services by acutely ill infants and children is increasing. A large proportion of these visits could be sufficiently addressed by other health care professionals. Uncertainty about the severity of a child’s symptoms is one of many factors that play a role in parents’ decisions to take their children to emergency services, demonstrating the need for improved support for health literacy. Digital interventions are a potential tool to improve parents’ knowledge, confidence, and self-efficacy at managing acute childhood illness. However, existing systematic reviews related to this topic need to be updated and expanded to provide a contemporary review of the impact, usability, and limitations of these solutions.

Objective

The purpose of this systematic review protocol is to present the method for an evaluation of the impact, usability, and limitations of different types of digital educational interventions to support parents caring for acutely ill children at home.

Methods

The review will be structured using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols (PRISMA-P) and Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome (PICO) frameworks. Five databases will be systematically searched for studies published in English during and after 2014: Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, APA PsycNet, and Web of Science. Two reviewers will independently screen references’ titles and abstracts, select studies for inclusion based on the eligibility criteria, and extract the data into a standardized form. Any disagreements will be discussed and resolved by a third reviewer if necessary. Risk of bias of all studies will be assessed using the Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT), and a descriptive analysis will be used to evaluate the outcomes reported.

Results

The systematic review will commence during 2021.

Conclusions

This systematic review will summarize the impact, usability, and limitations of digital interventions for parents with acutely ill children. It will provide an overview of the field; identify reported impacts on health and behavioral outcomes as well as parental knowledge, satisfaction, and decision making; and identify the factors that affect use to help inform the development of more effective and sustainable interventions.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/27504

Policy of free GP care for children under 6 years: The impact on emergency department attendance

Universal health coverage (UHC) aims to improve child health. Ireland, the only country in the European Union without universal access to primary care, introduced general practitioner (GP) care at no charge for children aged under six in 2015. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of this policy on attendance at the emergency department (ED). A difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis was applied to visit records of 367,000 paediatric patients at five hospitals over a period of five years, with treatment and control differentiated by age. DiD was also used to assess if GP referrals and the severity of presentations altered as a consequence of this policy. While existing research estimates that this policy increased attendance by children aged under six at general practice by over 25%, this policy did not lead to a reduction in ED attendance. Hospital level effects on attendance varied from no impact to increased attendance by children aged under six of 28.9%. While increased GP referrals, particularly for injury and medical reasons, indicated more patients presented to their GP prior to ED attendance, walk-ins without referral did not decrease. Attendance increased at both regional hospitals, which also had the highest proportion of GP referred visits. While the marginal probability of a visit being GP referred increased at four of the five hospitals in this study, only in two of these can the entire effect be attributed to the introduction of this policy (effects 1.4 and 1.8 percentage points). Previous unmet need, capacity constraints in general practice, regional variability in the GP to population ratio, restricted hours of access to GPs, coupled with faster access to diagnostics in the ED setting, may explain variability in the effect and why the expected reduction in ED attendances did not occur.

A Unified Theoretical Framework of Learning Theories to Inform and Guide Public Health Continuing Medical Education Research and Practice

Continuing medical education (CME) emerged at the start of the 20th century as a means of maintaining clinical competence among health care practitioners. However, evidence indicates that CME is often poorly developed and inappropriately used. Consequently, there has been increasing interest in the literature in evaluating wider contexts at play in CME development and delivery. In this article, the authors present a unified theoretical framework, grounded in learning theories, to explore the role of contextual factors in public health CME for health care practitioners. Discussion with pedagogical experts together with a narrative review of learning theories within medical and social science literature informed the framework's development. The need to consider sociocultural theories of learning within medical education restricted suitable theories to those that recognized contexts beyond the individual learner; adopted a systems approach to evaluate interactions between contexts and learner; and considered learning as more than mere acquisition of knowledge. Through a process of rigorous critical analysis, two theoretical models emerged as contextually appropriate: Biggs principle of constructive alignment and Bronfenbrenner bioecological model of human development. Biggs principle offers theoretical clarity surrounding interactive factors that encourage lifelong learning, whereas the Bronfenbrenner model expands on these factor's roles across multiple system levels. The authors explore how unification into a single framework complements each model while elaborating on its fundamental and practical applications. The unified theoretical framework presented in this article addresses the limitations of isolated frameworks and allows for the exploration of the applicability of wider learning theories in CME research.

Primary care and all-cause mortality in urban China: a mixed-level analysis

BACKGROUND

There is still a lack of evidence focusing on primary care supply in developing countries where the educational achievement of primary care practitioners is relatively low.

OBJECTIVES

By using a nationally representative longitudinal and prospective cohort study, this study examined whether primary care supply, measured by the availability and the number of community health centres (CHCs), was associated with 4-year mortality risk among community-dwelling participants aged 45 and above in urban China.

METHODS

Using the 2011 and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS), we conducted a longitudinal mixed-level logistic analysis to study the impact of the availability and the number of CHC on 4-year follow-up mortality risk, after adjusting community- and individual-level covariates.

RESULTS

Individuals living in communities with CHC were 31% less likely to die during the 4-year follow-up (P < 0.05) conditional on community-level characteristics, including the basic facilities availability, population size and physical area, and individuals' socio-demographic and health characteristics and health behaviours. Also, an increased number of community-level CHC was shown to decrease residents' 4-year mortality risk significantly (odds ratio = 0.82, P < 0.05). Furthermore, the association was more pronounced among adults aged 65 and above.

CONCLUSION

This study provides additional evidence of the health-promoting effect of primary care supply among urban residents in China. Improving primary care coverage in China should be necessary to improve health care access, thus promoting population health.

[The impact of primary healthcare and the reduction of primary health care-sensitive hospital admissions]

This study aimed to analyze the association between quality of primary healthcare (PHC) in Brazilian municipalities (counties) and the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions. This was an ecological study with analysis of nationwide secondary data. The quality of the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions was based on assessment of the National Program for Improvement of Access and Quality of Basic Care (PMAQ-AB). The analysis used a hierarchical explanatory model, with the number of the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions hospitalizations in the year 2014 as the dependent variable and sociodemographic and health system data as the independent variables. The measure of association between the number of hospitalizations and quality of PHC was calculated with negative binomial regression with robust variance and the total population as offset, with significance set at 20% in the univariate analysis and 5% in the multivariate analysis. The mean number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions during the target period was 359.97 hospitalizations per municipality. The quality of PHC showed a negative association with the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions. Municipalities with lower quality of PHC (quartile 1) showed 21.2% more number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions than municipalities with higher quality (95%CI: 1.09-1.34). The results showed that quality of PHC in Brazil reduced hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions, even in contexts of social vulnerability.

Factors that influence family and parental preferences and decision making for unscheduled paediatric healthcare - systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Health systems offer access to unscheduled care through numerous routes; however, it is typically provided by general practitioners (GPs), by emergency medicine doctors in in emergency departments (EDs) and by GPs in out-of-hours GP services such as practitioner cooperatives. Unscheduled healthcare constitutes a substantial portion of healthcare delivery. A systematic review was conducted to establish the factors that influence parents' decision making when seeking unscheduled healthcare for their children. The systematic review question was "What are the factors that influence the decision making of parents and families seeking unscheduled paediatric healthcare?"

METHOD

Five databases (CINAHL, PubMed, SCOPUS, PsycInfo, EconLit) and four grey literature databases (Proquest, Lenus, OpenGrey, Google Scholar) were searched. The titles and abstracts of 3746 articles were screened and full-text screening was performed on 177 of these articles. Fifty-six papers were selected for inclusion in the review. Data relating to different types of unscheduled health services (namely primary care, the emergency department and out-of-hours services) were extracted from these articles. A narrative approach was used to synthesise the extracted data.

RESULTS

Several factors were identified as influencing parental preferences and decision making when seeking unscheduled healthcare for their children. A number of the included studies identified pre-disposing factors such as race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) as impacting the healthcare-seeking behaviour of parents. Unscheduled healthcare use was often initiated by the parent's perception that the child's condition was urgent and their need for reassurance. The choice of unscheduled service was influenced by a myriad of factors such as: waiting times, availability of GP appointments, location of the ED, and the relationship that the parent or caregiver had with their GP.

CONCLUSION

Policy and planning initiatives do not always reflect how patients negotiate the health system as a single entity with numerous entry points. Altering patients' behaviour through public health initiatives that seek to improve, for instance, health literacy or reducing emergency hospital admissions through preventative primary care requires an understanding of the relative importance of factors that influence behaviour and decision making, and the interactions between these factors.

Trends in healthcare use in children aged less than 15 years: a population-based cohort study in England from 2007 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

To describe changing use of primary care in relation to use of urgent care and planned hospital services by children aged less than 15 years in England in the decade following major primary care reforms from 2007 to 2017 DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We used linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to study children's primary care consultations and use of hospital care including emergency department (ED) visits, emergency and elective admissions to hospital and outpatient visits to specialists.

RESULTS

Between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2017, there were 7 604 024 general practitioner (GP) consultations, 981 684 ED visits, 287 719 emergency hospital admissions, 2 253 533 outpatient visits and 194 034 elective admissions among 1 484 455 children aged less than 15 years. Age-standardised GP consultation rates fell (-1.0%/year) to 1864 per 1000 child-years in 2017 in all age bands except infants rising by 1%/year to 6722 per 1000/child-years in 2017. ED visit rates increased by 1.6%/year to 369 per 1000 child-years in 2017, with steeper rises of 3.9%/year in infants (780 per 1000 child-years in 2017). Emergency hospital admission rates rose steadily by 3%/year to 86 per 1000 child-years and outpatient visit rates rose to 724 per 1000 child-years in 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past decade since National Health Service primary care reforms, GP consultation rates have fallen for all children, except for infants. Children's use of hospital urgent and outpatient care has risen in all ages, especially infants. These changes signify the need for better access and provision of specialist and community-based support for families with young children.

Cost-effectiveness of using an extensively hydrolyzed casein formula supplemented with Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG in managing IgE-mediated cow's milk protein allergy in the UK

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of using an extensively hydrolyzed casein formula (eHCF) plus the probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (eHCF plus LGG; Nutramigen* LGG^®) compared to an eHCF alone as first-line dietary management for Immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) in the UK. Methods: Decision modelling was undertaken to estimate the probability of IgE-mediated cow's milk allergic infants being symptom free (i.e. not experiencing urticaria, eczema, asthma or rhinoconjunctivitis) and developing tolerance to cow's milk by 5 years. The model also estimated the cost (at 2016/2017 prices) of healthcare resource use funded by the UK's National Health Service (NHS) over 5 years after starting a formula, as well as the relative cost-effectiveness of the two dietary formulae. Results: At 5 years after the start of a formula the probability of being symptom free was estimated to be 0.97 and 0.76 among infants who were originally fed eHCF plus LGG and an eHCF alone, respectively. This encompassed the probability of children being asthma free at 5 years after the start of treatment, which was 0.99 and 0.91 in the eHCF plus LGG and eHCF alone groups, respectively. Additionally, the probability of acquiring tolerance to cow's milk was estimated to be 0.94 and 0.66 among infants who were originally fed eHCF plus LGG and an eHCF alone, respectively. The estimated total healthcare cost over 5 years of initially feeding infants with eHCF plus LGG was less than that of feeding infants with an eHCF alone (£4229 versus £5136 per patient). Conclusions: First-line management of newly diagnosed infants with IgE-mediated CMPA with eHCF plus LGG instead of an eHCF alone improves outcome, releases healthcare resources for alternative use, reduces the NHS cost of patient management and thereby affords a cost-effective dietetic strategy to the NHS.

Prediction of 30-day pediatric unplanned hospitalizations using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups risk adjustment system

Background

The Johns Hopkins ACG System is widely used to predict patient healthcare service use and costs. Most applications have focused on adult populations. In this study, we evaluated the use of the ACG software to predict pediatric unplanned hospital admission in a given month, based on the past year’s clinical information captured by electronic health records (EHRs).

Methods and findings

EHR data from a multi-state pediatric integrated delivery system were obtained for 920,051 patients with at least one physician visit during January 2009 to December 2016. Over this interval an average of 0.36% of patients each month had an unplanned hospitalization. In a 70% training sample, we used the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to generate regression coefficients for demographic, clinical predictors derived from the ACG system, and prior year hospitalizations. Applying these coefficients to a 30% test sample to generate risk scores, we found that the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.82. Omitting prior hospitalizations decreased the AUC from 0.82 to 0.80, and increased under-estimation of hospitalizations at the greater risk levels. Patients in the top 5% of risk scores accounted for 43% and the top 1% of risk scores accounted for 20% of all unplanned hospitalizations.

Conclusions

A predictive model based on 12-months of demographic and clinical data using the ACG system has excellent predictive performance for 30-day pediatric unplanned hospitalization. This model may be useful in population health and care management applications targeting patients likely to be hospitalized. External validation at other institutions should be done to confirm our results.