Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis

The projected economic burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil by 2030

OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of overweight increases the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and, consequently, the costs of health care systems. In this study, we aimed to project the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil between 2021 and 2030.

METHODS

A cohort simulation of adults (17-117 years) using multistate lifetable modeling was used to estimate the costs of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil. The projections of direct health care costs (outpatient and inpatient expenses in the Unified Health System) and indirect costs (years of productive life lost) considered different trajectories of the prevalence of overweight between 2021 and 2030.

RESULTS

In 2019, the prevalence of overweight was 55.4% in the adult Brazilian population. We estimate that around 1.8 billion international dollars (Int$) would be spent on the direct health care cost of NCDs between 2021 and 2030, through the continued increase in overweight prevalence observed between 2006 and 2020. The indirect costs over the same time would be approximately 20.1 billion Int$. We estimate that halving the annual increase in body mass index slope from the beginning of 2021 until 2030 would save 20.2 million Int$ direct and indirect costs by 2030. In the scenario of keeping the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 constant until 2030, the savings would be 40.8 million Int$. Finally, in the scenario of a 6.7% reduction in the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 (to be achieved gradually until 2030), 74.1 million Int$ would be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the high economic burden of overweight in the Brazilian adult population.

Sodium intake according to NOVA food classification in Brazil: trends from 2002 to 2018

Excessive sodium intake is a major global public health issue and the identification of dietary sources and temporal trends in its consumption are a key to effective sodium reduction policies. This study aims to update estimates of sodium intake and its dietary sources in Brazil according to the NOVA food classification system. Records of 7-day food purchases of households from the Brazilian Household Budgets Survey of 2002-2003, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018 were converted into nutrients using food composition tables and the mean availability was estimated per 2,000kcal/day. Mean daily sodium available for consumption in Brazilian households has increased from 3.9 to 4.7g per 2,000kcal, from 2002-2003 to 2017-2018, over twice the recommended levels of sodium intake. From 2002-2003 to 2017-2018, the processed culinary ingredients, including table salt, represented the largest dietary source of sodium, although their participation in dietary sodium was reduced by 17% (66.6% to 55%), while the percentage of dietary sodium from processed foods increased by 20.3% and from ultra-processed foods increased by 47.6% (11.3% to 13.6% and 17% to 25.1%, respectively). In conclusion, the total household sodium availability remains high and has increased over time in Brazil, yet the participation of different dietary sources of sodium have gradually changed.

Avoidable diet-related deaths and cost-of-illness with culturally optimized modifications in diet: The case of Brazil

BACKGROUND

Dietary risk factors have an important impact on premature deaths and disabilities due to non-communicable diseases. In this study, we perform diet optimization to design different dietary scenarios taking into account food prices and preferences and evaluate the number of deaths that would be prevented as well as the economic burden and costs from the health system that would be saved in Brazil.

METHODS

We used dietary intake and food prices data from the nationwide Household Budget Survey (HBS) and the National Dietary Survey (NDS) 2017-2018. Linear programming models were performed to design five scenarios which different sets of key diet modifications at the least deviation from the baseline consumption. Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the health impacts of optimized dietary changes on mortality and the economic impacts on morbidity (hospitalizations) and premature deaths.

RESULTS

The optimized diets were, on average, more expensive than the baseline diets, varying from Int$ (international dollar) 0.02/day to 0.52/day/adult. The number of deaths prevented or postponed varied from 12,750 (10,178-15,225) to 57,341 (48,573-66,298) according to the different scenarios. The diet modifications would save from 50 to 219 million in hospitalizations and from 239 to 804 million yearly in productivity losses with the reduction of premature deaths.

CONCLUSION

A substantial number of deaths and costs due to hospitalization and productivity losses would be avoidable even with small changes in diets. However, even the cheapest intervention might be prohibitive for deprived families, yet subsidies and social policies could contribute to improving diets.

Modelling the impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent the main cause of death in Mexico, while high blood pressure is suffered by about half of the adult population. Sodium intake is one of the main risk factors for these diseases. The Mexican adult population consumes about 3.1 g/day, an amount that exceeds what is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) < 2 g sodium/day. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing sodium intake on CVD mortality in Mexico using a scenario simulation model.

METHODS

The Integrated Model of Preventable Risk (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) due to CVD in the Mexican adult population following the following sodium intake reduction scenarios: (a) according to the WHO recommendations; (b) an "optimistic" reduction of 30%; and (c) an "intermediate" reduction of 10%.

RESULTS

The results show that a total of 27,700 CVD deaths could be prevented or postponed for scenario A, 13,900 deaths for scenario B, and 5,800 for scenario C. For all scenarios, the highest percentages of DPP by type of CVD are related to ischemic heart disease, hypertensive disease, and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that if Mexico considers implementing policies with greater impact to reduce sodium/salt consumption, a significant number of deaths from CVD could be prevented or postponed.

Estimated Impact of Achieving the Australian National Sodium Reduction Targets on Blood Pressure, Chronic Kidney Disease Burden and Healthcare Costs: A Modelling Study

Excess sodium intake raises blood pressure which increases the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to estimate the impact of reduced sodium intake on future CKD burden in Australia. A multi-cohort proportional multistate lifetable model was developed to estimate the potential impact on CKD burden and health expenditure if the Australian Suggested Dietary Target (SDT) and the National Preventive Health Strategy 2021-2030 (NPHS) sodium target were achieved. Outcomes were projected to 2030 and over the lifetime of adults alive in 2019. Achieving the SDT and NPHS targets could lower population mean systolic blood pressure by 2.1 mmHg and 1.7 mmHg, respectively. Compared to normal routines, attaining the SDT and NPHS target by 2030 could prevent 59,220 (95% UI, 53,140-65,500) and 49,890 (44,377-55,569) incident CKD events, respectively, while postponing 568 (479-652) and 511 (426-590) CKD deaths, respectively. Over the lifetime, this generated 199,488 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and AUD 644 million in CKD healthcare savings for the SDT and 170,425 HALYs and AUD 514 million for the NPHS. CKD due to hypertension and CKD due to other/unspecified causes were the principal contributors to the HALY gains. Lowering sodium consumption in Australia could deliver substantial CKD health and economic benefits.

The direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular diseases (such as coronary heart disease and stroke) by sex and age group, attributed to the excessive consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat in Brazil.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data for estimating the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) corresponding to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans-fat were obtained from the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018. The calculation of direct costs for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) was made from the accounting sum of costs with hospitalizations and outpatient care found in the National Health System (Hospital Information System and Outpatient Information System), from 2017 to 2019, including the costs of treatment, such as medical consultations, medical procedures, and drugs. Regarding the indirect costs, they were measured by the loss of human capital, given the premature death, resulting in loss of productivity. To define the attributable costs, they were multiplied by the PAF.

RESULTS

Higher burden of CVD attributable to the consumption of salt, saturated fat and trans fat were observed in younger individuals, which progressively decreased with advancing age, but still generated economic costs in the order of US$ 7.18 billion, in addition to 1.53 million productive years of life lost (YLL) to premature death, if considering salt as an inducer. Although attributable burden of CVD is higher among younger individuals, the highest costs are associated with males aged 45 to 74 years old for direct costs and 45 to 64 years old for indirect costs.

CONCLUSION

The attributable fractions to consumption of salt are the ones that cause the most effects on CVD, followed by saturated fat and trans fat, with direct and indirect costs being higher for males.

Health economic impacts associated with the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil

Introduction

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is among the main risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to estimate the financial costs of hospitalizations and procedures of high and medium complexity for NCDs attributable to the consumption of SSBs in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) in 2019.

Methods

This ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 and the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS). The attributable costs were estimated from the population-attributable fraction (PAF) and the costs in the treatment of chronic diseases [type 2 diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease (IHD)], stratified by sex, age group, level of complexity of treatment, and federative units.

Results

In 2019, in Brazil, US$ 14,116,240.55 were the costs of hospitalizations and procedures of high and medium complexity in the treatment of NCDs attributable to the consumption of SSBs. These values were higher in males (US$ 8,469,265.14) and the southeast and southern regions, mainly in the state of São Paulo. However, when evaluating these results at a rate per 10,000 inhabitants, it was observed that the states of Paraná, Tocantins, and Roraima had higher costs per 10,000 inhabitants. Regarding the age groups, higher costs were observed in the older age groups.

Conclusion

This study revealed the high financial impact of the NCDs treatment attributed to the consumption of SSBs in Brazil and the variability among Brazilian macro-regions. The results demonstrate the urgency and need for the expansion of policies to reduce the consumption of SSBs in Brazil with strategies that consider regional particularities.

Dietary sodium intake remains high in Brazil: Data from the Brazilian National Dietary Surveys, 2008-2009 and 2017-2018

Reducing salt intake is considered one of the most cost-effective interventions to decrease morbidity and mortality resulting from noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to describe changes in sodium intake in the Brazilian population using data from the National Dietary Surveys (NDS) conducted in 2008-2009 and 2017-2018. We hypothesized that over the 10-year period evaluated, sodium intake has remained high in Brazil. Nationwide representative samples of 34,003 and 46,164 individuals (aged ≥10 years) from NDS 2008-2009 and 2017-2018, respectively, were evaluated. Food consumption data were obtained from 2 nonconsecutive food records (NDS 2008-2009) and two 24-hour food recalls (NDS 2017-2018). Trends, percentiles of distribution, and proportions of the population exceeding the age-specific tolerable upper intake level for sodium were estimated. Dietary sodium intake was also estimated as a function of energy intake (mg/1000 kcal). Overall, mean crude daily sodium intake was slightly lower in 2017-2018 than in 2008-2009 (2489 mg/d vs. 2529 mg/d). The decrease in sodium intake (mg/day) was statistically significant (P < .05) only among female adolescents and subjects in the highest income level. Additionally, an overall statistically significant increase in dietary sodium density was observed independent of age, sex, and income level for energy-adjusted data (P < .05). Our findings indicate that sodium intake has not significantly changed over time in the Brazilian population; thus, policies aimed at reducing sodium intake in Brazil are necessary.

A Program Evaluation of a Dietary Sodium Reduction Research Consortium of Five Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Latin America

Excess dietary sodium is a global public health priority, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where rates of hypertension and cardiovascular disease are high. The International Development Research Centre funded a research consortium of five Latin American countries (LAC) to inform public health policy for dietary sodium reduction (2016-2020). The objective of this study was to determine the outcomes of this funding on short-term (e.g., research, capacity building) and intermediary outcomes (e.g., policies). A summative program evaluation was conducted, using a logic model and multiple data sources including document review, surveys and interviews. Researchers from Argentina, Costa Rica, Brazil, Peru and Paraguay produced a significant amount of scientific evidence to guide decision making on sodium policy related to its content in foods, consumer behaviors (social marketing), and the health and economic benefits of dietary reduction. A substantive number of knowledge translation products were produced. The funding enabled training opportunities for researchers who developed skills that can be scaled-up to other critical nutrients and health issues. It was unexpected that intermediary policy changes would occur, however several countries demonstrated early policy improvements derived from this research. A funded research consortium of LAC is a practical approach to invoke policy innovations.

Reducing Sodium Consumption in Mexico: A Strategy to Decrease the Morbidity and Mortality of Cardiovascular Diseases

Hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are important public health problems in Mexico. High sodium intake is linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of developing CVD. International organizations suggest consuming <2 g of sodium/day; however, the Mexican population consumes amounts above what is recommended: 3.1 g/day. Although efforts have been made to mitigate this problem, interventions are needed to improve cardiovascular health. This policy brief offers a short review of the current sodium consumption situation in Mexico and the importance of why decision makers should consider actions to reduce consumption. Recommendations to reduce sodium/salt intake include: Reformulation of ultra-processed-foods, promote the use warning labels, communication campaign, reduce the use of table salt, and monitor sodium intake.