Clinical and metabolomic predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a population at intermediate cardiometabolic risk

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate and reversion to normoglycemia in people with impaired fasting glucose: a 5-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The present body of evidence regarding the correlation between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the reversal of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to normoglycemia remains constrained. Consequently, the objective of our study is to examine the relationship between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in individuals with IFG.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study consecutively collected data from 24,541 non-selective participants with IFG at Rich Healthcare Group in China from January 2010 to 2016. We aimed to investigate the association between baseline eGFR and reversion to normoglycemia using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Through the utilization of a Cox proportional hazards regression model featuring cubical spline smoothing, we were able to ascertain the non-linear correlation between eGFR and the return to normoglycemia. Furthermore, various sensitivity and subgroup analyses were carried out, and a competing risk multivariate Cox regression was employed to examine the progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.

RESULTS

In our study, comprising 24,541 participants, the average age was 49.25 ± 13.77 years, with 66.28% being male. The baseline eGFR mean was 104.16 ± 15.78 ml/min per 1.73 m2. During a median follow-up period of 2.89 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 45.50%. Upon controlling for covariates, our findings indicated a positive correlation between eGFR and the probability of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 1.008, 95% CI 1.006-1.009). In addition, a non-linear association was observed between eGFR and the likelihood of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. The inflection point of eGFR was found to be 111.962 ml/min per 1.73 m2, with HRs of 1.003 (95% CI 1.001, 1.005) on the left side of the point and 1.019 (95% CI 1.015, 1.022) on the right side. Our robust results were supported by competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our investigation indicate a favorable and non-linear correlation between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in Chinese individuals with IFG. Specifically, a reduction in renal function at an early stage in these patients may considerably diminish the likelihood of attaining normoglycemia.

Elevated triglyceride-glucose-body mass index associated with lower probability of future regression to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes: a 5-year cohort study

Objective

Despite the clear association of TyG-BMI with prediabetes and the progression of diabetes, no study to date has examined the relationship between TyG-BMI and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia.

Methods

25,279 participants with prediabetes who had physical examinations between 2010 and 2016 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. The relationship between baseline TyG-BMI and regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model in this study. Additionally, the nonlinear association between TyG-BMI and the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia was investigated using the Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function. Competing risk multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted, with progression to diabetes as a competing risk for prediabetes reversal to normoglycemia. Furthermore, subgroup analyses and a series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, the results showed that TyG-BMI was negatively associated with the probability of returning to normoglycemia (per 10 units, HR=0.970, 95% CI: 0.965, 0.976). They were also nonlinearly related, with an inflection point for TyG-BMI of 196.46. The effect size (HR) for TyG-BMI to the right of the inflection point (TyG-BMI ≥ 196.46) and the probability of return of normoglycemia was 0.962 (95% CI: 0.954, 0.970, per 10 units). In addition, the competing risks model found a negative correlation between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia (SHR=0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of our results.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated a negative and nonlinear relationship between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes. Through active intervention, the combined reduction of BMI and TG levels to bring TyG-BMI down to 196.46 could significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes: an analysis based on data from a retrospective cohort study

The available evidence on the connection between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and the reversion from prediabetes (Pre-DM) to normoglycemia is currently limited. The present research sought to examine the connection between HDL-C levels and the regression from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in a population of Chinese adults. This historical cohort study collected 15,420 Pre-DM patients in China who underwent health screening between 2010 and 2016. The present research used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to investigate the connection between HDL-C levels and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was employed to ascertain the nonlinear association between HDL-C and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. Furthermore, a set of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were employed. Following the adjustment of covariates, the findings revealed a positive connection between HDL-C levels and the likelihood of reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia (HR 1.898, 95% CI 1.758-2.048, P < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a non-linear relationship between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in both genders, and the inflection point of HDL-C was 1.540 mmol/L in males and 1.620 mmol/L in females. We found a strong positive correlation between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia on the left of the inflection point (Male: HR 2.783, 95% CI 2.373-3.263; Female: HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.802-2.727). Our sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Subgroup analyses indicated that patients with SBP < 140 mmHg and ever smoker exhibited a more pronounced correlation between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. In contrast, a less robust correlation was observed among patients with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, current and never smokers. This study provides evidence of a positive and nonlinear association between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in Chinese patients. Implementing intensified intervention measures to control the HDL-C levels of patients with Pre-DM around the inflection point may substantially enhance the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia.

Association between non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio and reversion to normoglycemia in people with impaired fasting glucose: a 5-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between the non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio (non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio) and changes in glycemic status as well as the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been well established. However, there is a lack of evidence concerning the association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the reversal of normoglycemia in individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Therefore, this study aimed to examine the connection between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia among people with IFG.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined data collected from 15,524 non-selective participants with IFG at the Rich Healthcare Group in China between January 2010 and 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to investigate the connection between the baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of reverting to normoglycemia. We were able to discover the non-linear association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubical spline smoothing. We also performed several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. A competing risk multivariate Cox regression was utilized as well to examine the development to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.

RESULTS

In our study, a total of 15,524 individuals participated, with a mean age of 50.9 ± 13.5 years, and 64.7% were male. The average baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was 2.9 ± 0.9. Over a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 41.8%. After adjusting for covariates, our findings revealed a negative association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.74). Notably, we identified a non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. We found an inflection point at a non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio of 3.1, with HRs of 0.63 (95% CI 0.69, 0.74) on the left side and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74, 0.83) on the right side of the point. Competing risks multivariate Cox's regression, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis consistently supported our robust results.

CONCLUSION

Our study has revealed a negative and non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese people with IFG. Specifically, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was below 3.1, a significant and negative association with reversion to normoglycemia was observed. Furthermore, keeping the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio below 3.1 significantly elevated the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio is associated with regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes in adults: a 5-year cohort study in China

OBJECTIVE

The current body of evidence on the association between the ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia remains limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia in patients with prediabetes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 15,107 individuals with prediabetes from 32 Chinese districts and 11 cities who completed health checks from 2010 to 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model examined baseline TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting determined the non-linear connection between TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia. We also ran sensitivity and subgroup analysis. By characterizing progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemic event, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model with competing risks was created.

RESULTS

Upon adjusting for covariates, the findings indicate a negative association between TG/HDL-c and the likelihood of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 0.869, 95%CI:0.842-0.897). Additionally, a non-linear relationship between TG/HDL-c and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia was observed, with an inflection point of 1.675. The HR on the left side of the inflection point was 0.748 (95%CI:0.699, 0.801). The robustness of our results was confirmed through competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and a series of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

The present study reveals a negative and non-linear correlation between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia among Chinese individuals with prediabetes. The findings of this study are anticipated to serve as a valuable resource for clinicians in managing dyslipidemia in prediabetic patients. Interventions aimed at reducing the TG/HDL-c ratio through the reduction of TG or elevation of HDL-c levels may substantially enhance the likelihood of achieving normoglycemia in individuals with prediabetes.

Association between body mass index and reversion to normoglycemia from impaired fasting glucose among Chinese adults: a 5-year cohort study

Objective

Evidence regarding the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes is still limited. The purpose of our study is to survey the link of BMI on reversion to normoglycemia among patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG).

Methods

This study, a retrospective cohort, covered 32 regions and 11 cities in China and collected 258,74 IFG patients who underwent a health check from 2010 to 2016. We investigated the association between baseline BMI and reversion to normoglycemia in patients with IFG using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. The nonlinear relationship between BMI and reversion to normoglycemia was determined using a Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting. In addition, we also performed a series of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses. A competing risk multivariate Cox regression was performed using progression to diabetes as a competing risk for reversal of normoglycemic events.

Results

After adjusting covariates, the results showed that BMI was negatively related to the probability of reversion to normoglycemia (HR=0.977, 95%CI:0.971-0.984). Compared with participants with normal BMI(<24kg/m²), overweight (BMI:24-28kg/m²) participants with IFG had a 9.9% lower probability of returning to normoglycemia (HR=0.901,95%CI:0.863-0.939), while obese patients (BMI ≥ 28kg/m²) had a 16.9% decreased probability of reverting from IFG to normoglycemia (HR=0.831,95%CI:0.780-0.886). There was also a nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of BMI was 21.7kg/m². The effect sizes (HR) on the left sides of the inflection point were 0.972(95%CI:0.964-0.980). The competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of our results.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates a negative and nonlinear relationship between BMI and reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese patients with IFG. Minimizing BMI to 21.7 kg/m² in patients with IFG through aggressive intervention may significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Metabolomic markers of glucose regulation after a lifestyle intervention in prediabetes

INTRODUCTION

Disentangling the specific factors that regulate glycemia from prediabetes to normoglycemia could improve type 2 diabetes prevention strategies. Metabolomics provides substantial insights into the biological understanding of environmental factors such as diet. This study aimed to identify metabolomic markers of regression to normoglycemia in the context of a lifestyle intervention (LSI) in individuals with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a single-arm intervention study with 24 weeks of follow-up. Eligible study participants had at least one prediabetes criteria according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines, and body mass index between 25 and 45 kg/m². LSI refers to a hypocaloric diet and >150 min of physical activity per week. Regression to normoglycemia (RNGR) was defined as achieving hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <5.5% in the final visit. Baseline and postintervention plasma metabolomic profiles were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. To select metabolites associated with RNGR, we conducted the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-penalized regressions.

RESULTS

The final sample was composed of 82 study participants. Changes in three metabolites were significantly associated with regression to normoglycemia; N-acetyl-D-galactosamine (OR=0.54; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.82), putrescine (OR=0.90, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.98), and 7-methylguanine (OR=1.06; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.17), independent of HbA1c and weight loss. In addition, metabolomic perturbations due to LSI displayed enrichment of taurine and hypotaurine metabolism pathway (p=0.03) compatible with biomarkers of protein consumption, lower red meat and animal fats and higher seafood and vegetables.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from this study suggests that specific metabolomic markers have an influence on glucose regulation in individuals with prediabetes after 24 weeks of LSI independently of other treatment effects such as weight loss.

Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index and Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese People With Normal Glycemic Level: A Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

It has been proved that triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) is a readily available and clinically significant indicator of insulin resistance (IR). Nevertheless, the association between TyG-BMI and incident Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains uncertain. This study aimed to study the relationship between TyG-BMI and T2DM and explore the predictive characteristics of TyG-BMI.

METHODS

Our study was conducted as a longitudinal cohort study. 8,430 men and 7,034 women were enrolled and analyzed. They were both non-diabetic subjects with normal glycemic levels. Follow-up lasted for 13 years, from 1994 to 2016. To make the number of TyG-BMI in each group similar, the subjects were divided into four groups with 3866 subjects in each group.

RESULTS

During the 13-year follow-up period, 373 subjects were diagnosed with incident T2DM. Our multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TyG-BMI was an independent predictor of incident T2DM. In addition, our research identified four specific groups, young people (18-44 years old), women, the non-hypertensive population and non-drinkers were at significantly higher risk of developing TyG-BMI-related diabetes (P-interaction< 0.05). The best threshold TyG-BMI for predicting incident T2DM was 197.2987 (area under the curve 0.7738).

CONCLUSIONS

Our longitudinal cohort study demonstrated the positive correlation between baseline TyG-BMI and risk of incident T2DM in Japanese with normal glycemic levels, and this risk was significantly higher in the young people, women, the non-hypertensive population and non-drinkers.

Plasma metabolomic profiling in subclinical atherosclerosis: the Diabetes Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Incidence rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are increasing, partly driven by the diabetes epidemic. Novel prediction tools and modifiable treatment targets are needed to enhance risk assessment and management. Plasma metabolite associations with subclinical atherosclerosis were investigated in the Diabetes Heart Study (DHS), a cohort enriched for type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

The analysis included 700 DHS participants, 438 African Americans (AAs), and 262 European Americans (EAs), in whom coronary artery calcium (CAC) was assessed using ECG-gated computed tomography. Plasma metabolomics using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry identified 853 known metabolites. An ancestry-specific marginal model incorporating generalized estimating equations examined associations between metabolites and CAC (log-transformed (CAC + 1) as outcome measure). Models were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, diabetes duration, date of plasma collection, time between plasma collection and CT exam, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and statin use.

RESULTS

At an FDR-corrected p-value < 0.05, 33 metabolites were associated with CAC in AAs and 36 in EAs. The androgenic steroids, fatty acid, phosphatidylcholine, and bile acid metabolism subpathways were associated with CAC in AAs, whereas fatty acid, lysoplasmalogen, and branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) subpathways were associated with CAC in EAs.

CONCLUSIONS

Strikingly different metabolic signatures were associated with subclinical coronary atherosclerosis in AA and EA DHS participants.

A Higher Serum Anion Gap Is Associated with the Risk of Progressing to Impaired Fasting Glucose and Diabetes

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a reversible intermediate hyperglycemia stage with an increasing risk of diabetes and related complications. Our study was designed to identify the relationship between the serum anion gap and the risk of progressing to impaired fasting glucose and diabetes. Here, we performed a prospective, population-based study among 1191 Chinese individuals aged 22-87 years who took health examinations annually between 2006 and 2012 including clinical features and plasma metabolites. All of the participants had no history of diabetes or related chronic complications. Logistic regression analysis was designed to examine the associations between clinical and metabolomic factors and the risk of developing IFG or diabetes. Among them, 58 subjects whose fasting glucose were between 6.1 and 7 mmol/L were diagnosed as IFG or diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), potassium, and albumin at baseline, the participants in the upper tertiles of serum anion gap (SAG) had higher odds of progressing to IFG or diabetes than those in the lower tertiles. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was analyzed, and the optimal cutoff level for the anion gap to predict incident IFG or diabetes was 13.76 mmol/L, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.623. Our data demonstrate that a higher serum anion gap is associated with the risk of developing IFG or diabetes.