The past, present and future use of epidemiological intelligence to plan malaria vector control and parasite prevention in Uganda

Simulating the Impacts of Augmenting Intensive Vector Control with Mass Drug Administration or Test-and-Treat Strategies on the Malaria Infectious Reservoir

Highly effective vector control can reduce malaria burden significantly, but individuals with parasitemia provide a potential reservoir for onward transmission. We performed an empirical, non-parametric simulation based on cohort data from Tororo District, Uganda-an area with historically high but recently reduced malaria transmission-to estimate the effects of mass drug administration (MDA) and test-and-treat on parasite prevalence. We estimate that a single round of MDA would have accelerated declines in parasite prevalence dramatically over 2 years (cumulative parasite prevalence ratio [PPR], 0.34). This decline was mostly during the first year of administration (PPR, 0.23) and waned by 23 months (PPR, 0.74). Test-and-treat using a highly sensitive diagnostic had nearly the same effect as MDA at 1 year (PPR, 0.27) and required many fewer treatments. The impact of test-and-treat using a standard diagnostic was modest (PPR, 0.58 at 1 year). Our analysis suggests that in areas experiencing a dramatic reduction in malaria prevalence, MDA or test-and-treat with a highly sensitive diagnostic may be an effective way of reducing or eliminating the infectious reservoir temporarily. However, for sustained benefits, repeated rounds of the intervention or additional interventions are required.

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections

BACKGROUND

Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.

METHODS

Regression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).

RESULTS

Maximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.

CONCLUSIONS

The short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.

Delayed outbreak detection: a wake-up call to evaluate a surveillance system

During May, 83 of the 120 districts in Uganda had reported malaria cases above the upper limit of the normal channel. Across all districts, cases had exceeded malaria normal channel upper limits for an average of six months. Yet no alarms had been raised! Starting in 2000, Uganda adopted the World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy for disease reporting, including for malaria. Even early on, however, it was unclear how effectively IDSR and DHIS2 were being used in Uganda. Outbreaks were consistently detected late, but the underlying cause of the late detection was unclear. Suspecting there might be gaps in the surveillance system that were not immediately obvious, the Uganda FETP was asked to evaluate the malaria surveillance system in Uganda. This case study teaches trainees in Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs, public health students, public health workers who may participate in evaluation of public health surveillance systems, and others who are interested in this topic on reasons, steps, and attributes and uses the surveillance evaluation approach to identify gaps and facilitates discussion of practical solutions for improving a public health surveillance system.

Asymptomatic malaria infection prevailing risks for human health and malaria elimination

There has been a consistent rise in malaria cases in the last few years. The existing malaria control measures are challenged by insecticide resistance in the mosquito vector, drug résistance in parasite populations, and asymptomatic malaria (ASM) in healthy individuals. The absence of apparent malaria symptoms and the presence of low parasitemia makes ASM a hidden reservoir for malaria transmission and an impediment in malaria elimination efforts. This review focuses on ASM in malaria-endemic countries and the past and present research trends from those geographical locations. The harmful impacts of asymptomatic malaria on human health and its contribution to disease transmission are highlighted. We discuss certain crucial genetic changes in the parasite and host immune response necessary for maintaining low parasitemia leading to long-term parasite survival in the host. Since the chronic health effects and the potential roles for disease transmission of ASM remain mostly unknown to significant populations, we offer proposals for developing general awareness. We also suggest advanced technology-based diagnostic methods, and treatment strategies to eliminate ASM.

Opening the 'black box' of collaborative improvement: a qualitative evaluation of a pilot intervention to improve quality of malaria surveillance data in public health centres in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Demand for high-quality surveillance data for malaria, and other diseases, is greater than ever before. In Uganda, the primary source of malaria surveillance data is the Health Management Information System (HMIS). However, HMIS data may be incomplete, inaccurate or delayed. Collaborative improvement (CI) is a quality improvement intervention developed in high-income countries, which has been advocated for low-resource settings. In Kayunga, Uganda, a pilot study of CI was conducted in five public health centres, documenting a positive effect on the quality of HMIS and malaria surveillance data. A qualitative evaluation was conducted concurrently to investigate the mechanisms of effect and unintended consequences of the intervention, aiming to inform future implementation of CI.

METHODS

The study intervention targeted health workers, including brief in-service training, plus CI with 'plan-do-study-act' (PDSA) cycles emphasizing self-reflection and group action, periodic learning sessions, and coaching from a CI mentor. Health workers collected data on standard HMIS out-patient registers. The qualitative evaluation (July 2015 to September 2016) included ethnographic observations at each health centre (over 12-14 weeks), in-depth interviews with health workers and stakeholders (n = 20), and focus group discussions with health workers (n = 6).

RESULTS

The results suggest that the intervention did facilitate improvement in data quality, but through unexpected mechanisms. The CI intervention was implemented as planned, but the PDSA cycles were driven largely by the CI mentor, not the health workers. In this context, characterized by a rigid hierarchy within the health system of limited culture of self-reflection and inadequate training and supervision, CI became an effective form of high-quality training with frequent supervisory visits. Health workers appeared motivated to improve data collection habits by their loyalty to the CI mentor and the potential for economic benefits, rather than a desire for self-improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

CI is a promising method of quality improvement and could have a positive impact on malaria surveillance data. However, successful scale-up of CI in similar settings may require deployment of highly skilled mentors. Further research, focusing on the effectiveness of 'real world' mentors using robust study designs, will be required to determine whether CI can be translated effectively and sustainably to low-resource settings.

The Relationship Between Market Environment Dimensions and Availability of Malaria Pills in Uganda

Introduction

This study sought to examine the contribution of relationship building (in terms of collaboration, information sharing and supply chain interdependence) on the availability of malaria treatment pills in public hospitals in Sub-Saharan Africa using data from Uganda.

Methods

By means of a cross-sectional survey research design, the study used a questionnaire strategy to collect quantitative data. Out of the 320 questionnaires that were distributed in 40 public hospitals, 283 were answered and returned, which yielded an 88% response rate. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to establish the relationship between measured variables and latent constructs.

Results

Drawing on the survey results, the confirmatory factor analysist and the Structural Equation Modelling clearly demonstrate that relationship building (in terms of collaboration, information sharing and supply chain interdependence) significantly influences the availability of Artemisinin-based combination therapies in public general hospitals in Uganda.

Conclusion

Policy-makers should focus on developing cheaper information technology tools to exchange information regarding stock levels, forecasting, quantification, orders, and dispensing. This study developed a measurement model for an inter-hospital relationship, using relational view theory, and it employs dimensions in terms of information sharing and supply chain interdependence to predict and explain the availability of malaria pills in government hospitals.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019

BACKGROUND

As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period.

METHODS

Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index.

RESULTS

An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions.

CONCLUSION

Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Changing malaria fever test positivity among paediatric admissions to Tororo district hospital, Uganda 2012-2019

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) promotes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) for malaria control in endemic countries. However, long-term impact data of vector control interventions is rarely measured empirically.

METHODS

Surveillance data was collected from paediatric admissions at Tororo district hospital for the period January 2012 to December 2019, during which LLIN and IRS campaigns were implemented in the district. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) among febrile admissions aged 1 month to 14 years was aggregated at baseline and three intervention periods (first LLIN campaign; Bendiocarb IRS; and Actellic IRS + second LLIN campaign) and compared using before-and-after analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was used to determine the effect of IRS (Bendiocarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN campaign on monthly TPR compared to the combined baseline and first LLIN campaign periods controlling for age, rainfall, type of malaria test performed. The mean and median ages were examined between intervention intervals and as trend since January 2012.

RESULTS

Among 28,049 febrile admissions between January 2012 and December 2019, TPR decreased from 60% at baseline (January 2012-October 2013) to 31% during the final period of Actellic IRS and LLIN (June 2016-December 2019). Comparing intervention intervals to the baseline TPR (60.3%), TPR was higher during the first LLIN period (67.3%, difference 7.0%; 95% CI 5.2%, 8.8%, p < 0.001), and lower during the Bendiocarb IRS (43.5%, difference - 16.8%; 95% CI - 18.7%, - 14.9%) and Actellic IRS (31.3%, difference - 29.0%; 95% CI - 30.3%, - 27.6%, p < 0.001) periods. ITSA confirmed a significant decrease in the level and trend of TPR during the IRS (Bendicarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN period compared to the pre-IRS (baseline + first LLIN) period. The age of children with positive test results significantly increased with time from a mean of 24 months at baseline to 39 months during the final IRS and LLIN period.

CONCLUSION

IRS can have a dramatic impact on hospital paediatric admissions harbouring malaria infection. The sustained expansion of effective vector control leads to an increase in the age of malaria positive febrile paediatric admissions. However, despite large reductions, malaria test-positive admissions continued to be concentrated in children aged under five years. Despite high coverage of IRS and LLIN, these vector control measures failed to interrupt transmission in Tororo district. Using simple, cost-effective hospital surveillance, it is possible to monitor the public health impacts of IRS in combination with LLIN.

The Impact of Multiple Rounds of Indoor Residual Spraying on Malaria Incidence and Hemoglobin Levels in a High-Transmission Setting

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is widely used as a vector control measure, although there are conflicting findings of its effectiveness in reducing malaria incidence. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of multiple IRS rounds on malaria incidence and hemoglobin levels in a cohort of children in rural southeastern Uganda.

METHODS

The study was based upon a dynamic cohort of children aged 0.5-10 years enrolled from August 2011 to June 2017 in Nagongera Subcounty. Confirmed malaria infections and hemoglobin levels were recorded over time for each participant. After each of 4 rounds of IRS, malaria incidence, hemoglobin levels, and parasite density were evaluated and compared with pre-IRS levels. Analyses were carried out at the participant level while accounting for repeated measures and clustering by household.

RESULTS

Incidence rate ratios comparing post-IRS to pre-IRS incidence rates for age groups 0-3, 3-5, and 5-11 were 0.108 (95% confidence interval [CI], .078-.149), 0.173 (95% CI, .136-.222), and 0.226 (95% CI, .187-.274), respectively. The mean hemoglobin levels significantly increased from 11.01 (pre-IRS) to 12.18 g/dL (post-IRS).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the policy recommendation of IRS usage in a stable and perennial transmission area to rapidly reduce malaria transmission.

Non-invasive surveillance of Plasmodium infection by real-time PCR analysis of ethanol preserved faeces from Ugandan school children with intestinal schistosomiasis

Background

As part of ongoing co-surveillance of intestinal schistosomiasis and malaria in Ugandan school children, a non-invasive detection method for amplification of Plasmodium DNA using real-time (rt)PCR analysis of ethanol preserved faeces (EPF) was assessed. For diagnostic tabulations, results were compared to rtPCR analysis of dried blood spots (DBS) and field-based point-of-care (POC) rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs).

Methods

A total of 247 school children from 5 primary schools along the shoreline of Lake Albert were examined with matched EPF and DBS obtained. Mean prevalence and prevalence by school was calculated by detection of Plasmodium DNA by rtPCR using a 18S rDNA Taqman^® probe. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were tabulated and compared against RDTs.

Results

By rtPCR of EPF and DBS, 158 (63.9%; 95% CI 57.8–69.7) and 198 (80.1%, 95% CI 74.7–84.6) children were positive for Plasmodium spp. By RDT, 138 (55.8%; 95% CI 49.6–61.9) and 45 (18.2%; 95% CI 13.9–23.5) children were positive for Plasmodium falciparum, and with non-P. falciparum co-infections, respectively. Using RDT results as a convenient field-based reference, the sensitivity of rtPCR of EPF and DBS was 73.1% (95% CI 65.2–79.8) and 94.2% (95% CI 88.9–97.0) while specificity was 47.7% (95% CI 38.5–57.0) and 37.6% (95% CI 29.0–46.9), respectively. With one exception, school prevalence estimated by analysis of EPF was higher than that by RDT. Positive and negative predictive values were compared and discussed.

Conclusions

In this high transmission setting, EPF sampling with rtPCR analysis has satisfactory diagnostic performance in estimation of mean prevalence and prevalence by school upon direct comparison with POC-RDTs. Although analysis of EPF was judged inferior to that of DBS, it permits an alternative non-invasive sampling regime that could be implemented alongside general monitoring and surveillance for other faecal parasites. EPF analysis may also have future value in passive surveillance of low transmission settings.

The 2015-2016 malaria epidemic in Northern Uganda; What are the implications for malaria control interventions?

Vector control and effective case management are currently the backbone strategies of malaria control. Kitgum district, an area of perennial holoendemic malaria transmission intensity in Northern Uganda, appears to have experienced a malaria epidemic in 2015. This study aimed to describe the malaria trends in Kitgum General Hospital from 2011 to 2017 in relation to climatic factors and the application of population-based malaria control interventions. Hospital records were examined retrospectively to calculate malaria normal channels, malaria cases per 1000 population, test positivity rates (TPR) and to enumerate pregnancy malaria, hospitalizations and deaths. Climatic factors (humidity, temperature and rainfall) and population-based malaria control interventions that had been applied during this period were described. Kitgum district experienced an epidemic between the years 2015 and 2016; the malaria burden rose above the established normal channels. At its peak the number of malaria cases attending KGH was over 20 times above the normal channels. The total number of cases per 1000 population increased from 7 in 2014 to 113 in 2015 and 114 in 2016 (p value for trend <0.0001). Similarly, TPR increased from 10.5% to 54.6% between 2014 and 2016 (p value for trend <0.0001). This trend was also observed for malaria attributable hospitalizations, and malaria in pregnancy. There were no significant changes in any of the climatic factors assessed (p value = 0.92, 0.99, 0.52 for relative humidity, max temperature, and rainfall, respectively). The malaria upsurge occurred in conjunction with a general decline in the use and application of malaria control interventions. Specifically, indoor residual spraying was interrupted in 2014. In response to the epidemic, IRS was reapplied together with mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) in 2017. Subsequently, there was a decline in all malaria indicators. The epidemic in Kitgum occurred in association with the interruption of IRS and appears to have abated following its re-introduction alongside LLINs. The study suggests that to enable malaria elimination in areas of high malaria transmission intensity, effective control measures may need to be sustained for the long-term.

A cross-sectional study of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection burden and risk factors in general population children in 12 villages in northern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is an important cause of morbidity in northern Uganda. This study was undertaken to assess village-, household-, and individual-level risk factors of asymptomatic falciparum malaria in children in 12 villages in northern Uganda.

METHODS

Between 10/2011 and 02/2014, 1006 apparently healthy children under 16 years old were enrolled in 12 villages using a stratified, multi-stage, cluster survey design and assessed for P. falciparum malaria infection using the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and thick film microscopy (TFM), and structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Associations between weighted P. falciparum malaria prevalence (pfPR), based on RDT, and covariates were estimated as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95% CIs) using logistic models accounting for the survey design.

RESULTS

Among 942 (93.5%) children successfully tested, pfPR was 52.4% by RDT and 32.7% by TFM. Overall pfPR was lower in villages where indoor residual insecticide spray (IRS) was, versus not, implemented (18.4% versus 75.2%, P < 0.0001). However, pfPR was heterogeneous both within IRS (10.6-34.8%) and non-IRS villages (63.6-86.2%). Elevated pfPR was associated with having a sibling who was RDT positive (OR 5.39, 95% CI 2.94-9.90, P = 0.0006) and reporting a fever at enrollment (aOR 4.80, 95% CI 1.94-11.9, P = 0.0094). Decreased pfPR was associated with living in an IRS village (adjusted OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.04-0.07, P < 0.0001), in a household with one (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.30-0.76) or more than one child below 5 years (aOR 0.23, 95% CI 0.12-0.44, Ptrend = 0.014), and reporting keeping a goat inside or near the house (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.29-0.62, P = 0.0021).

CONCLUSIONS

The results show high but heterogeneous pfPR in villages in northern Uganda, confirm significantly decreased pfPR associated with IRS implementation, and suggest significant associations with some household characteristics. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors influencing malaria heterogeneity in villages in Uganda.

Interactions between climatic changes and intervention effects on malaria spatio-temporal dynamics in Uganda

Background

Although malaria burden in Uganda has declined since 2009 following the scale-up of interventions, the disease is still the leading cause of hospitalization and death. Transmission remains high and is driven by suitable weather conditions. There is a real concern that intervention gains may be reversed by climatic changes in the country. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate on the spatio-temporal trends of malaria incidence in Uganda during 2013–2017.

Methods

Bayesian spatio-temporal negative binomial models were fitted on district-aggregated monthly malaria cases, reported by two age groups, defined by a cut-off age of 5 years. Weather data was obtained from remote sensing sources including rainfall, day land surface temperature (LSTD) and night land surface temperature (LSTN), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), altitude, land cover, and distance to water bodies. Spatial and temporal correlations were taken into account by assuming a conditional autoregressive and a first-order autoregressive process on district and monthly specific random effects, respectively. Fourier trigonometric functions modeled seasonal fluctuations in malaria transmission. The effects of climatic changes on the malaria incidence changes between 2013 and 2017 were estimated by modeling the difference in time varying climatic conditions at the two time points and adjusting for the effects of intervention coverage, socio-economic status and health seeking behavior.

Results

Malaria incidence declined steadily from 2013 to 2015 and then increased in 2016. The decrease was by over 38% and 20% in children <5 years and individuals ≥5 years, respectively. Temporal trends depict a strong bi-annual seasonal pattern with two peaks during April–June and October–December. The annual average of rainfall, LSTD and LSTN increased by 3.7 mm, 2.2 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively, between 2013 and 2017, whereas NDVI decreased by 6.8%. On the one hand, the increase in LSTD and decrease in NDVI were associated with a reduction in the incidence decline. On the other hand, malaria interventions and treatment seeking behavior had reverse effects, that were stronger compared to the effects of climatic changes. Important interactions between interventions with NDVI and LSTD suggest a varying impact of interventions on malaria burden in different climatic conditions.

Conclusion

Climatic changes in Uganda during the last five years contributed to a favorable environment for malaria transmission, and had a detrimental effect on malaria reduction gains achieved through interventions scale-up efforts. The NMCP should create synergies with the National Meteorological Authority with an ultimate goal of developing a Malaria Early Warning System to mitigate adverse climatic change effects on malaria risk in the country.

Use of epidemiological and entomological tools in the control and elimination of malaria in Ethiopia

Malaria is the leading public health problem in Ethiopia where over 75% of the land surface is at risk with varying intensities depending on altitude and season. Although the mortality because of malaria infection has declined much during the last 15–20 years, some researchers worry that this success story may not be sustainable. Past notable achievements in the reduction of malaria disease burden could be reversed in the future. To interrupt, or even to eliminate malaria transmission in Ethiopia, there is a need to implement a wide range of interventions that include insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, improved control of residual malaria transmission, and improved diagnostics, enhanced surveillance, and methods to deal with the emergence of resistance both to drugs and to insecticides. Developments during the past years with increasing awareness about the role of very low levels of malaria prevalence can sustain infections, may also demand that tools not used in the routine control efforts to reduce or eliminate malaria, should now be made available in places where malaria transmission occurs.

Low prevalence of laboratory-confirmed malaria in clinically diagnosed adult women from the Wakiso district of Uganda

Background

The malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has fallen substantially. Nevertheless, malaria remains a serious health concern, and Uganda ranks third in SSA in total malaria burden. Epidemiological studies of adult malaria in Uganda are scarce and little is known about rates of malaria in non-pregnant adult women. This pilot study assessed malaria prevalence among adult women from Wakiso district, historically a highly malaria endemic region.

Methods

Adult women using public health services were screened for malaria, HIV and pregnancy. A physician-selected subset of women presenting to the Outpatient Department of Entebbe General Hospital (EGH) with current fever (axillary temperature ≥37.5 °C) or self-reporting fever during the previous 24 h, and a positive thick smear for malaria in the EGH laboratory were enrolled (n = 86). Women who self-identified as pregnant or HIV-positive were excluded from screening. Malaria infection was then assessed using HRP2/pLDH rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in all participants. Repeat microscopy and PCR were performed at a research laboratory for a subset of participants. In addition, 104 women without a history of fever were assessed for asymptomatic parasitaemia using RDT, and a subset of these women screened for parasitaemia using microscopy (40 women) and PCR (40 women).

Results

Of 86 women diagnosed with malaria by EGH, only two (2.3%) had malaria confirmed using RDT, subsequently identified as a Plasmodium falciparum infection by research microscopy and PCR. Subset analysis of hospital diagnosed RDT-negative participants detected one sub-microscopic infection with Plasmodium ovale. Compared to RDT, sensitivity, specificity and PPV of hospital microscopy were 100% (CI 19.8–100), 0% (CI 0–5.32) and 2.33% (CI 0.403–8.94) respectively. Compared to PCR, sensitivity, specificity and PPV of hospital microscopy were 100% (CI 31.0–100), 0% (CI 0–34.5) and 23.1% (CI 6.16–54.0), respectively. No malaria was detected among asymptomatic women using RDT, research microscopy or PCR.

Conclusions

Malaria prevalence among adult women appears to be low in Wakiso, but is masked by high rates of malaria overdiagnosis. More accurate malaria testing is urgently needed in public hospitals in this region to identify true causes of febrile illness and reduce unnecessary provision of anti-malarial therapy.

Assessing the effects of malaria interventions on the geographical distribution of parasitaemia risk in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Burkina Faso conducted its first nationally representative household malaria survey in 2010/2011. The survey collected among others, information on malaria interventions, treatment choices and malaria parasite prevalence in children aged 6-59 months.

METHODS

In this study, Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to assess the effects of health interventions related to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spray (IRS), artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) coverage associated with childhood malaria parasite risk at national and sub-national level, after taking into account geographical disparities of climatic/environmental and socio-economic factors. Several ITN coverage measures were calculated and Bayesian variable selection was used to identify the most important ones. Parasitaemia risk depicting spatial patterns of infections were estimated.

RESULTS

The results show that the predicted population-adjusted parasitaemia risk ranges from 4.04 % in Kadiogo province to 82 % in Kompienga province. The effect of ITN coverage was not important at national level; however ITNs have an important protective effect in Ouagadougou as well as in three districts in the western part of the country with high parasitaemia prevalence and low to moderate coverage. There is a large variation in ACT coverage between the districts. Although at national level the ACT effects on parasitaemia risk was not important, at sub-national level 18 districts around Ouagadougou deliver effective treatment.

CONCLUSION

The produced maps show great variations in parasitaemia risk across the country and identify the districts where interventions are being effective. These outputs are valuable tools that can help improve malaria control in Burkina Faso.

Narrative review of current context of malaria and management strategies in Uganda (Part I)

In accordance with international targets, the Uganda National Malaria Control Strategic Plan established specific targets to be achieved by 2010. For children under five, this included increasing the number of children sleeping under mosquito nets and those receiving a first-line antimalarial to 85%, and decreasing case fatality to 2%. This narrative review offers contextual information relevant to malaria management in Uganda since the advent of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) as first-line antimalarial treatment in 2004. A comprehensive search using key words and phrases was conducted using the web search engines Google and Google Scholar, as well as the databases of PubMed, ERIC, EMBASE, CINAHL, OvidSP (MEDLINE), PSYC Info, Springer Link, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched. A total of 147 relevant international and Ugandan literature sources meeting the inclusion criteria were included. This review provides an insightful understanding on six topic areas: global and local priorities, malarial pathology, disease burden, malaria control, treatment guidelines for uncomplicated malaria, and role of the health system in accessing antimalarial medicines. Plasmodium falciparum remains the most common cause of malaria in Uganda, with children under five being most vulnerable due to their underdeveloped immunity. While international efforts to scale up malaria control measures have resulted in considerable decline in malaria incidence and mortality in several regions of sub-Saharan Africa, this benefit has yet to be substantiated for Uganda. At the local level, key initiatives have included implementation of a new antimalarial drug policy in 2004 and strengthening of government health systems and programs. Examples of such programs include removal of user fees, training of frontline health workers, providing free ACT from government systems and subsidized ACT from licensed private outlets, and introduction of the integrated community case management program to bring diagnostics and treatment for malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea closer to the community. However despite notable efforts, Uganda is far from achieving its 2010 targets. Several challenges in the delivery of care and treatment remain, with those most vulnerable and living in rural settings remaining at greatest risk from malaria morbidity and mortality.

The skeletal manifestation of malaria: An epidemiological approach using documented skeletal collections

OBJECTIVES

Recent studies in paleopathology have shown promise in associating some skeletal lesions with malarial infection. However, malaria's skeletal manifestation has never been confirmed using a large clinical reference sample from an endemic area for malaria with known individual causes of death.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To pinpoint evidence of malaria infection on ancient skeletal remains, this study uses an epidemiological approach to compare skeletal lesions in a modern reference sample of 98 individuals from Uganda, where malaria is holoendemic, to a similar modern sample of 106 individuals from a malaria-free area.

RESULTS

Five porous skeletal lesions are identified that appear more frequently in the endemic area population, especially in anemic individuals. These appear on the cranium, vertebral column, and humeral and femoral necks. Periostitis also associates strongly with individuals in the endemic population; however, linear enamel hypoplasias show an inverse association. The identified lesions are tested for their association with each other, and then tested individually for their diagnostic power through measures of sensitivity and specificity. A diagnostic outcome algorithm is formed from the remaining skeletal lesions and their inter-lesion associations.

DISCUSSION

Several etiological explanations for the characteristic malarial skeletal lesions are explored, including severe malarial anemia, an imbalance in bone remodeling, and extramedullary erythropoiesis. The importance of careful differential diagnoses between other infectious and noninfectious causes of these lesions is discussed, including the potential for coinfection of malaria with other infectious diseases. The findings of this study are pivotal in establishing diagnostic criteria by which we can identify the prevalence and impact of malaria on past populations.