Reviewing South Africa's malaria elimination strategy (2012-2018): progress, challenges and priorities

A review of historical trends in Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) complex composition, collection trends and environmental effects from 2009 to 2021 in Mpumalanga province, South Africa

South Africa is a frontline country for malaria elimination in the southern African region. It has three malaria-endemic provinces, each with its own transmission pattern. The elimination of malaria depends, in part, on controlling and/or eliminating vectors responsible for transmission. Sustained entomological surveillance is an important factor to consider when shifting from a control to elimination framework. The Ehlanzeni district in Mpumalanga province is a key entomological sentinel surveillance area. It is one of the malaria-endemic districts in South Africa with higher rates of malaria incidences. As such, entomological data about the Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) complex have been collected in this province over a substantial period. These data are stored in a pre-existing institutional database. An analysis of the trends that can be observed from this database has not been performed before. This retrospective (longitudinal) analysis provides a summary of the An. gambiae complex vector composition in this region from 2009 to 2021. Routine surveillance data were correlated with climatic data (obtained from the NASA LaRC POWER project database) for the same period to assess the role of climatic factors in vector dynamics. This review also identifies a number of limitations in the data collection process across the sampling period and provides recommendations on how to strengthen the database going forward. The most abundant member of the An. gambiae complex since 2009 in the province was An. merus Dönitz followed by An. arabiensis Patton. Collection methods used showed that human landing catches were successful for collecting An. arabiensis, while pit traps were the most effective in collecting An. merus and An. quadriannulatus Theobald. The latter two species were mainly collected in spring, whereas An. arabiensis abundance was larger during autumn collections. Vector abundance was not significantly correlated with annual climatic data. The information gained from this database provides insights into the vector dynamics of the Ehlanzeni district of the Mpumalanga province.

Application of multivariate binary logistic regression grouped outlier statistics and geospatial logistic model to identify villages having unusual health-seeking habits for childhood malaria in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis and prompt treatment of malaria in young children are crucial for preventing the serious stages of the disease. If delayed treatment-seeking habits are observed in certain areas, targeted campaigns and interventions can be implemented to improve the situation.

METHODS

This study applied multivariate binary logistic regression model diagnostics and geospatial logistic model to identify traditional authorities in Malawi where caregivers have unusual health-seeking behaviour for childhood malaria. The data from the 2021 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey were analysed using R software version 4.3.0 for regressions and STATA version 17 for data cleaning.

RESULTS

Both models showed significant variability in treatment-seeking habits of caregivers between villages. The mixed-effects logit model residual identified Vuso Jere, Kampingo Sibande, Ngabu, and Dzoole as outliers in the model. Despite characteristics that promote late reporting of malaria at clinics, most mothers in these traditional authorities sought treatment within twenty-four hours of the onset of malaria symptoms in their children. On the other hand, the geospatial logit model showed that late seeking of malaria treatment was prevalent in most areas of the country, except a few traditional authorities such as Mwakaboko, Mwenemisuku, Mwabulambya, Mmbelwa, Mwadzama, Zulu, Amidu, Kasisi, and Mabuka.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that using a combination of multivariate regression model residuals and geospatial statistics can help in identifying communities with distinct treatment-seeking patterns for childhood malaria within a population. Health policymakers could benefit from consulting traditional authorities who demonstrated early reporting for care in this study. This could help in understanding the best practices followed by mothers in those areas which can be replicated in regions where seeking care is delayed.

Molecular detection of sub-microscopic infections and Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 and 3 gene deletions in pre-elimination settings of South Africa

South Africa's efforts toward eliminating malaria have positioned the country in the pre-elimination stage. Imported and sub-microscopic cases still contribute to the persistence of malaria in regions of low transmission as identified in this study where diagnostics is built largely on the use of Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT). However, the presence of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion is known to interfere with the accuracy of diagnosis with the use of RDT. Malaria elimination and detection of Pfhrp2/3 gene deletion in the pre-elimination setting requires accurate molecular surveillance. With the core objective of this study being the determination of the presence sub-microscopic malaria cases and deleted Pfhrp2/3 gene markers, a total of 354 samples were collected from five districts of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. These samples were prepared for molecular analysis using primers and PCR conditions specific for amplification of 18S rRNA and msp-1gene. Positive amplicons were analysed for the presence of Pfhrp2/3 and flanking genes, along with Sanger sequencing and phylogenetic studies. Out of 354 samples collected 339 were tested negative with PfHRP2 based RDTs. Of these Pfhrp2 and Pfhrp3 gene deletions were confirmed in 94.7% (18/19) and 100% (19/19) respectively. High migration rate (75%) among the study participants was noted and phylogenetic analysis of sequenced isolates showed close evolutionary relatedness with India, United Kingdom, Iran, and Myanmar and China isolates. Molecular-based test is recommended as an essential surveillance tool for malaria management programs as the target focuses on elimination.

The Impact of Climatic Factors on Temporal Mosquito Distribution and Population Dynamics in an Area Targeted for Sterile Insect Technique Pilot Trials

It is widely accepted that climate affects the mosquito life history traits; however, its precise role in determining mosquito distribution and population dynamics is not fully understood. This study aimed to investigate the influence of various climatic factors on the temporal distribution of Anopheles arabiensis populations in Mamfene, South Africa between 2014 and 2019. Time series analysis, wavelet analysis, cross-correlation analysis, and regression model combined with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model were utilized to assess the relationship between climatic factors and An. arabiensis population density. In total 3826 adult An. arabiensis collected was used for the analysis. ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 0, 1)12 models closely described the trends observed in An. arabiensis population density and distribution. The wavelet coherence and time-lagged correlation analysis showed positive correlations between An. arabiensis population density and temperature (r = 0.537 ), humidity (r = 0.495) and rainfall (r = 0.298) whilst wind showed negative correlations (r = -0.466). The regression model showed that temperature (p = 0.00119), rainfall (p = 0.0436), and humidity (p = 0.0441) as significant predictors for forecasting An. arabiensis abundance. The extended ARIMA model (AIC = 102.08) was a better fit for predicting An. arabiensis abundance compared to the basic model. Anopheles arabiensis still remains the predominant malaria vector in the study area and climate variables were found to have varying effects on the distribution and abundance of An. arabiensis. This necessitates other complementary vector control strategies such as the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) which involves releasing sterile males into the environment to reduce mosquito populations. This requires timely mosquito and climate information to precisely target releases and enhance the effectiveness of the program, consequently reducing the malaria risk.

The Malaria Burden: A South African Perspective

Malaria is a deadly disease caused by protozoan pathogens of the Plasmodium parasite. Transmission to humans occurs through the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 247 million cases of malaria were recorded worldwide in 2021, with approximately 619 000 malaria deaths. The initial signs of malaria can be mild and challenging to diagnose due to the signs and symptoms being similar to those of other illnesses. The malaria burden remains largely concentrated in the WHO sub-Saharan African region and has been recognised as a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. This review aims to contribute to the existing knowledge on malaria in South Africa, a region within sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the epidemiology and life cycle of the malaria parasite as well as diagnostic approaches for detecting malaria. In addition, nonpharmacological and pharmacological interventions for treating and preventing malaria infections will also be discussed herein. While there has been a significant reduction in the global burden of this disease, malaria remains a public health issue in South Africa. As such, the implementation of effective preventative measures and strategies, early diagnosis, and appropriate treatment regimens are crucial to reducing the malaria burden in South Africa.

Evaluation of the malaria case surveillance system in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, 2022: a focus on DHIS2

BACKGROUND

South Africa set a target to eliminate malaria by 2023, with KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province the malaria-endemic province closest to achieving this goal. Objective two of the National Malaria Elimination Strategic Plan (NMESP) focused on strengthening surveillance systems to support the country's elimination efforts. Regular evaluations of the malaria surveillance systems against the targets of the NMESP objective are crucial in improving their performance and impact. This study aimed to assess whether the malaria surveillance system in KwaZulu-Natal Province meets the NMESP surveillance objective and goals.

METHODS

A mixed-methods cross-sectional study design was used to evaluate the malaria surveillance system, focusing on the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). The study assessed the data quality, timeliness, simplicity, and acceptability of the system. Key personnel from KZN's Provincial malaria control programme were interviewed using self-administered questionnaires to evaluate their perception of the system's simplicity and acceptability. Malaria case data from January 2016 to December 2020 were extracted from the DHIS2 and evaluated for data quality and timeliness.

RESULTS

The survey respondents generally found the DHIS2-based surveillance system acceptable (79%, 11/14) and easy to use (71%, 10/14), stating that they could readily find, extract, and share data (64%, 9/14). Overall data quality was good (88.9%), although some variables needed for case classification had low completeness and data availability. However, case notifications were not timely, with only 61% (2 622/4 329) of cases notified within 24 h of diagnosis. During the 5-year study period, the DHIS2 captured 4 333 malaria cases. The majority of cases (81%, 3 489/4 330) were categorized as imported, and predominately in males (67%, 2 914/4 333).

CONCLUSION

While the malaria surveillance system in KZN Province largely met the NMESP surveillance strategic goals, it failed to achieve the overarching surveillance objective of 100% notification of cases within 24 h of diagnosis. The majority of reported cases in KZN Province were classified as imported, emphasizing the importance of complete data for accurate case classification. Engaging with healthcare professionals responsible for case notification and disseminating aggregated data back to them is needed to encourage and improve notification timeliness.

Population structure and genetic connectivity of Plasmodium falciparum in pre-elimination settings of Southern Africa

To accelerate malaria elimination in the Southern African region by 2030, it is essential to prevent cross-border malaria transmission. However, countries within the region are highly interconnected due to human migration that aids in the movement of the parasite across geographical borders. It is therefore important to better understand Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics in the region, and identify major parasite source and sink populations, as well as cross-border blocks of high parasite connectivity. We performed a meta-analysis using collated parasite allelic data generated by microsatellite genotyping of malaria parasites from Namibia, Eswatini, South Africa, and Mozambique (N = 5,314). The overall number of unique alleles was significantly higher (P ≤ 0.01) in Namibia (mean A = 17.3 ± 1.46) compared to South Africa (mean A = 12.2 ± 1.22) and Eswatini (mean A = 13.3 ± 1.27, P ≤ 0.05), whilst the level of heterozygosity was not significantly different between countries. The proportion of polyclonal infections was highest for Namibia (77%), and lowest for Mozambique (64%). A was significant population structure was detected between parasites from the four countries, and patterns of gene flow showed that Mozambique was the major source area and Eswatini the major sink area of parasites between the countries. This study showed strong signals of parasite population structure and genetic connectivity between malaria parasite populations across national borders. This calls for strengthening the harmonization of malaria control and elimination efforts between countries in the southern African region. This data also proves its potential utility as an additional surveillance tool for malaria surveillance on both a national and regional level for the identification of imported cases and/or outbreaks, as well as monitoring for the potential spread of anti-malarial drug resistance as countries work towards malaria elimination.

Household living conditions and individual behaviours associated with malaria risk: a community-based survey in the Limpopo River Valley, 2020, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, implementation of multiple malaria control strategies in most countries has largely contributed to advance the global malaria elimination agenda. Nevertheless, in some regions, seasonal epidemics may adversely affect the health of local populations. In South Africa, Plasmodium falciparum malaria is still present, with the Vhembe District experiencing an incidence rate of 3.79 cases/1000 person-years in 2018, particularly in the Limpopo River Valley, bordering Zimbabwe. To elucidate the complexity of the mechanisms involved in local regular malaria outbreaks, a community-based survey was implemented in 2020 that focused on the relationship between housing conditions and malaria risky behaviours.

METHODS

The community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among the population of three study sites in the Vhembe District, which were selected based on malaria incidence rate, social and health characteristics of inhabitants. The household survey used a random sampling strategy, where data were collected through face-to-face questionnaires and field notes; to described the housing conditions (housing questionnaire), and focus on individual behaviours of household members. Statistical analyses were performed combining hierarchical classifications and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

In this study, 398 households were described, covering a population of 1681 inhabitants of all ages, and 439 adults who participated in community-based survey. The analysis of situations at risk of malaria showed that the influence of contextual factors, particularly those defined by the type of habitat, was significant. Housing conditions and poor living environments were factors of malaria exposure and history, regardless of site of investigation, individual preventive behaviours and personal characteristics of inhabitants. Multivariate models showed that, considering all personal characteristics or behaviours of inhabitants, housing conditions such as overcrowding pressures were significantly associated with individual malaria risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed the overwhelming weight of social and contextual factors on risk situations. Considering the Fundamental Causes Theory, malaria control policies based on health behaviour prevention, should reinforce access to care or promoting health education actions. Overarching economic development interventions in targeted geographical areas and populations have to be implemented, so that malaria control and elimination strategies can be efficiently and effectively managed.

An insight to better understanding cross border malaria in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Border malaria is a major obstacle for the malaria elimination in Saudi Arabia. Today, the southern border of Saudi Arabia is a region where malaria cases are resurging, and malaria control is dwindling mainly due to the humanitarian crisis and the conflict in Yemen. This study analyses the current border malaria epidemiology along the southern border of Saudi Arabia from 2015 to 2018.

METHODS

All reported cases maintained by the malaria elimination centres in Aledabi and Baish, Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia, from 2015 to 2018 were analysed to examine the epidemiological changes over time. Pearson's Chi-Square test of differences was utilized to assess differences between the characteristics of imported and local causes and between border cases. A logistic regression model was used to predict imported status was related to living along side of the border area.

RESULTS

A total of 3210 malaria cases were reported in Baish and Aledabi malaria centres between 2015 and 2018, of which 170 were classified as local cases and 3040 were classified as imported cases. Reported malaria cases were mainly among males, within the imported cases 61.5% (1868/3039) were residents of the border areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the complexity of cross-border malaria, creating a malaria buffer zone that covers a certain margin from both sides of the border would allow for a joint force, cross-border malaria elimination programme. To initiate a malaria elimination activity and cases reported as belonging to this zone, rather than being pushed from one country to the other, would allow malaria elimination staff to work collaboratively with local borderland residents and other stakeholders to come up with innovative solutions to combat malaria and reach malaria-free borders.

Perceived Health System Challenges of Implementing Cross-Border Malaria Preventive Measures at Ports of Entry in KwaZulu-Natal

Background

Cross-border movements, especially from a malaria-endemic neighbour, contribute to importation of malaria, as they provide favourable conditions for malaria transmission in the receiving country. In the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province of South Africa (SA), the uMkhanyakude district is one of the endemic malaria areas where the borders are characterised by frequent cross-border movements of travellers coming into the province, mostly from Mozambique. Many studies have suggested that regional efforts through the implementation of cross-border measures are needed in both the high- and low-endemic countries to effectively address imported malaria. The implementation of cross-border measures to prevent imported malaria has led to a significant decline in malaria cases in KZN and SA; however, those measures are subjected to various challenges.

Objective

This study sought to determine the health system challenges of implementing cross-border preventive measures for imported malaria at the Kosi Bay, Kwaphuza and Golela ports of entry in KZN.

Methods

This inquiry consisted of a mixed methods approach, of which the qualitative component is reported here. In-depth interviews were conducted with four purposively selected health officers working at the legal and illegal ports of entry of the KZN province. Data were coded manually and then analysed using thematic data and descriptive analyses.

Results

This study identified operational and prevention challenges. The related operational challenges included travellers' non-disclosure and refusal, uncontrolled cross-border movements and poor coverage as well as shortage of staff. The prevention challenges included lack of novelty in the existing cross-border preventive measures, insecurity and illegal migration. Concerning travellers' non-disclosure and refusal to cooperate, these issues occur at the legal ports of entry of Kosi Bay and Golela, where travellers were less cooperative in disclosing their health-related information to health border officers. They were more eager to cross and attend to their business. The findings revealed a lack of new ideas in the existing cross-border measures for the prevention of imported malaria, which some scientists considered as the reason for the failure of the elimination efforts in SA. Because of the porous borders and the shortage of staff to cover all the uncontrolled entries, travellers constantly crossed without any hindrances. Porous borders exposed the people living at the border areas and travellers to insecurity, promoted criminal activities and encouraged illegal migration.

Conclusion

Cross-border malaria preventive measures are meant to contribute to decreased travel-related disease. Failure to attain this purpose must be carefully examined and mitigation strategies implemented. The study revealed the challenges of implementing cross-border measures at the KZN ports of entry of Kosi Bay, Kwaphuza and Golela. The challenges occurred at the operational and prevention levels, which, if not effectively addressed, could impede the decrease of imported malaria in the malaria-endemic district of KZN and SA in general.

Malaria Vector Surveillance and Control in an Elimination Setting in South Africa

South Africa’s malaria elimination plans are aligned to the World Health Organization’s aim for a malaria-free world and include specific objectives within a specified time frame. These are proving difficult to achieve owing to the sporadic nature of locally acquired malaria in some affected districts, while other districts that were endemic for the disease are either malaria-free or very close to that goal. The WHO also specifies that continued measures to prevent the re-establishment of transmission are required in areas where elimination has been achieved. These measures include routine malaria vector surveillance in endemic districts that are free of malaria to assess receptivity and risk of reintroduction, which may prove difficult to justify in the face of competing public health priorities and limited resources. These issues are discussed here within the framework of vector surveillance and control and include recommendations on how they can be addressed going forward.

Predicting malaria outbreaks from sea surface temperature variability up to 9 months ahead in Limpopo, South Africa, using machine learning

Malaria is the cause of nearly half a million deaths worldwide each year, posing a great socioeconomic burden. Despite recent progress in understanding the influence of climate on malaria infection rates, climatic sources of predictability remain poorly understood and underexploited. Local weather variability alone provides predictive power at short lead times of 1-2 months, too short to adequately plan intervention measures. Here, we show that tropical climatic variability and associated sea surface temperature over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are valuable for predicting malaria in Limpopo, South Africa, up to three seasons ahead. Climatic precursors of malaria outbreaks are first identified via lag-regression analysis of climate data obtained from reanalysis and observational datasets with respect to the monthly malaria case count data provided from 1998-2020 by the Malaria Institute in Tzaneen, South Africa. Out of 11 sea surface temperature sectors analyzed, two regions, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean regions, emerge as the most robust precursors. The predictive value of these precursors is demonstrated by training a suite of machine-learning classification models to predict whether malaria case counts are above or below the median historical levels and assessing their skills in providing early warning predictions of malaria incidence with lead times ranging from 1 month to a year. Through the development of this prediction system, we find that past information about SST over the western Pacific Ocean offers impressive prediction skills (~80% accuracy) for up to three seasons (9 months) ahead. SST variability over the tropical Indian Ocean is also found to provide good skills up to two seasons (6 months) ahead. This outcome represents an extension of the effective prediction lead time by about one to two seasons compared to previous prediction systems that were more computationally costly compared to the machine learning techniques used in the current study. It also demonstrates the value of climatic information and the prediction framework developed herein for the early planning of interventions against malaria outbreaks.

To spray or target mosquitoes another way: focused entomological intelligence guides the implementation of indoor residual spraying in southern Mozambique

BACKGROUND

To eliminate malaria in southern Mozambique, the National Malaria Control Programme and its partners are scaling up indoor residual spraying (IRS) activities in two provinces, Gaza and Inhambane. An entomological surveillance planning tool (ESPT) was used to answer the programmatic question of whether IRS would be effective in target geographies, given limited information on local vector bionomics.

METHODS

Entomological intelligence was collected in six sentinel sites at the end of the rainy season (April-May 2018) and the beginning of the dry season (June-July 2018). The primary objective was to provide an 'entomological snapshot' by collecting question-based, timely and high-quality data within one single week in each location. Host-seeking behaviour (both indoors and outdoors) was monitored by human-baited tent traps. Indoor resting behaviour was quantified by pyrethrum spray catches and window exit traps.

RESULTS

Five different species or species groups were identified: Anopheles funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (66.0%), Anopheles gambiae s.l. (14.0%), Anopheles pharoensis (1.4%), Anopheles tenebrosus (14.1%) and Anopheles ziemanni (4.5%). Anopheles funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) was the major vector among its sibling species, and 1.9% were positive for Plasmodium falciparum infections. Anopheles arabiensis was the most abundant vector species within the An. gambiae complex, but none tested positive for P. falciparum infections. Some An. tenebrosus were positive for P. falciparum (1.3%). When evaluating behaviours that impact IRS efficacy, i.e. endophily, the known primary vector An. funestus s.s., was found to rest indoors-demonstrating at least part of its population will be impacted by the intervention if insecticides are selected to which this vector is susceptible. However, other vector species, including An. gambiae s.l., An. tenebrosus, An. pharoensis and An. ziemanni, showed exophilic and exophagic behaviours in several of the districts surveilled.

CONCLUSION

The targeted approach to entomological surveillance was successful in collecting question-based entomological intelligence to inform decision-making about the use of IRS in specific districts. Endophilic An. funestus s.s. was documented as being the most prevalent and primary malaria vector suggesting that IRS can reduce malaria transmission, but the presence of other vector species both indoors and outdoors suggests that alternative vector control interventions that target these gaps in protection may increase the impact of vector control in southern Mozambique.

Malaria risk and receptivity: Continuing development of insecticide resistance in the major malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Malaria incidence in South Africa is highest in the three endemic provinces: KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. The contribution to malaria transmission by several mosquito species, variation in their resting behaviours and low levels of insecticide resistance makes it necessary to periodically monitor Anopheles species assemblages and resistance phenotypes in vector populations. The aim of this study was therefore to assess Anopheles species assemblage in northern KwaZulu-Natal and to collect insecticide susceptibility data for An. arabiensis, the primary vector of malaria in that province. Anopheles specimens were collected from Mamfene, Jozini, northern KwaZulu-Natal from November 2019 to April 2021. Progeny of wild-collected An. arabiensis females were used for standard insecticide susceptibility tests and synergist bioassays. Anopheles arabiensis contributed 85.6% (n=11 062) of the total catches. Samples for subsequent insecticide susceptibility bioassays were selected from 212 An. arabiensis families. These showed low-level resistance to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin, and bendiocarb, as well as full susceptibility to pirimiphos-methyl. Synergist bioassays using piperonyl butoxide and triphenyl phosphate suggest oxygenase-based pyrethroid and esterase-mediated sequestration of bendiocarb. These low levels of resistance are unlikely to be operationally significant at present. It is concluded that northern KwaZulu-Natal Province remains receptive to malaria transmission despite ongoing control and elimination interventions. This is due to the perennial presence of the major vector An. arabiensis and other secondary vector species. The continued detection of low-frequency insecticide resistance phenotypes in An. arabiensis is cause for concern and requires periodic monitoring for changes in resistance frequency and intensity.

Exploring public awareness of the current and future malaria risk zones in South Africa under climate change: a pilot study

Although only a small proportion of the landmass of South Africa is classified as high risk for malaria, the country experiences on-going challenges relating to malaria outbreaks. Climate change poses a growing threat to this already dire situation. While considerable effort has been placed in public health campaigns in the highest-risk regions, and national malaria maps are updated to account for changing climate, malaria cases have increased. This pilot study considers the sub-population of South Africans who reside outside of the malaria area, yet have the means to travel into this high-risk region for vacation. Through the lens of the governmental "ABC of malaria prevention", we explore this sub-population's awareness of the current boundaries to the malaria area, perceptions of the future boundary under climate change, and their risk-taking behaviours relating to malaria transmission. Findings reveal that although respondents self-report a high level of awareness regarding malaria, and their boundary maps reveal the broad pattern of risk distribution, their specifics on details are lacking. This includes over-estimating both the current and future boundaries, beyond the realms of climate-topographic possibility. Despite over-estimating the region of malaria risk, the respondents reveal an alarming lack of caution when travelling to malaria areas. Despite being indicated for high-risk malaria areas, the majority of respondents did not use chemoprophylaxis, and many relied on far less-effective measures. This may in part be due to respondents relying on information from friends and family, rather than medical or governmental advice.

Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.

METHODS

A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.

RESULTS

Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

Estimating malaria chemoprevention and vector control coverage using program and campaign data: A scoping review of current practices and opportunities

Background

Accurate estimation of intervention coverage is a vital component of malaria program monitoring and evaluation, both for process evaluation (how well program targets are achieved), and impact evaluation (whether intervention coverage had an impact on malaria burden). There is growing interest in maximizing the utility of program data to generate interim estimates of intervention coverage in the periods between large-scale cross-sectional surveys (the gold standard). As such, this study aimed to identify relevant concepts and themes that may guide future optimization of intervention coverage estimation using routinely collected data, or data collected during and following intervention campaigns, with a particular focus on strategies to define the denominator.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of current practices to estimate malaria intervention coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs); indoor residual spray (IRS); intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); mass drug administration (MDA); and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions; case management was excluded. Multiple databases were searched for relevant articles published from January 1, 2015 to June 1, 2018. Additionally, we identified and included other guidance relevant to estimating population denominators, with a focus on innovative techniques.

Results

While program data have the potential to provide intervention coverage data, there are still substantial challenges in selecting appropriate denominators. The review identified a lack of consistency in how coverage was defined and reported for each intervention type, with denominator estimation methods not clearly or consistently reported, and denominator estimates rarely triangulated with other data sources to present the feasible range of denominator values and consequently the range of likely coverage estimates.

Conclusions

Though household survey-based estimates of intervention coverage remain the gold standard, efforts should be made to further standardize practices for generating interim measurements of intervention coverage from program data, and for estimating and reporting population denominators. This includes fully describing any projections or adjustments made to existing census or population data, exploring opportunities to validate available data by comparing with other sources, and explaining how the denominator has been restricted (or not) to reflect exclusion criteria.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reactive, targeted indoor residual spraying for malaria control in low-transmission settings: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Increasing insecticide costs and constrained malaria budgets could make universal vector control strategies, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS), unsustainable in low-transmission settings. We investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a reactive, targeted IRS strategy.

METHODS

This cluster-randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial compared reactive, targeted IRS with standard IRS practice in northeastern South Africa over two malaria seasons (2015-17). In standard IRS clusters, programme managers conducted annual mass spray campaigns prioritising areas using historical data, expert opinion, and other factors. In targeted IRS clusters, only houses of index cases (identified through passive surveillance) and their immediate neighbours were sprayed. The non-inferiority margin was 1 case per 1000 person-years. Health service costs of real-world implementation were modelled from primary and secondary data. Incremental costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) were estimated and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02556242.

FINDINGS

Malaria incidence was 0·95 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·58 to 1·32) in the standard IRS group and 1·05 per 1000 person-years (0·72 to 1·38) in the targeted IRS group, corresponding to a rate difference of 0·10 per 1000 person-years (-0·38 to 0·59), demonstrating non-inferiority for targeted IRS (p<0·0001). Per additional DALY incurred, targeted IRS saved US$7845 (2902 to 64 907), giving a 94-98% probability that switching to targeted IRS would be cost-effective relative to plausible cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa ($2637 to $3557 per DALY averted). Depending on the threshold used, targeted IRS would remain cost-effective at incidences of less than 2·0-2·7 per 1000 person-years. Findings were robust to plausible variation in other parameters.

INTERPRETATION

Targeted IRS was non-inferior, safe, less costly, and cost-effective compared with standard IRS in this very-low-transmission setting. Saved resources could be reallocated to other malaria control and elimination activities.

FUNDING

Joint Global Health Trials.

Parasite genetic diversity reflects continued residual malaria transmission in Vhembe District, a hotspot in the Limpopo Province of South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa aims to eliminate malaria transmission by 2023. However, despite sustained vector control efforts and case management interventions, the Vhembe District remains a malaria transmission hotspot. To better understand Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics in the area, this study characterized the genetic diversity of parasites circulating within the Vhembe District.

METHODS

A total of 1153 falciparum-positive rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) were randomly collected from seven clinics within the district, over three consecutive years (2016, 2017 and 2018) during the wet and dry malaria transmission seasons. Using 26 neutral microsatellite markers, differences in genetic diversity were described using a multiparameter scale of multiplicity of infection (MOI), inbreeding metric (Fws), number of unique alleles (A), expected heterozygosity (He), multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) and genetic differentiation, and were associated with temporal and geospatial variances.

RESULTS

A total of 747 (65%) samples were successfully genotyped. Moderate to high genetic diversity (mean He = 0.74 ± 0.03) was observed in the parasite population. This was ascribed to high allelic richness (mean A = 12.2 ± 1.2). The majority of samples (99%) had unique multi-locus genotypes, indicating high genetic diversity in the sample set. Complex infections were observed in 66% of samples (mean MOI = 2.13 ± 0.04), with 33% of infections showing high within-host diversity as described by the Fws metric. Low, but significant LD (standardised index of association, ISA = 0.08, P < 0.001) was observed that indicates recombination of distinct clones. Limited impact of temporal (F_ST range - 0.00005 to 0.0003) and spatial (F_ST = - 0.028 to 0.023) variation on genetic diversity existed during the sampling timeframe and study sites respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with the Vhembe District's classification as a 'high' transmission setting within South Africa, P. falciparum diversity in the area was moderate to high and complex. This study showed that genetic diversity within the parasite population reflects the continued residual transmission observed in the Vhembe District. This data can be used as a reference point for the assessment of the effectiveness of on-going interventions over time, the identification of imported cases and/or outbreaks, as well as monitoring for the potential spread of anti-malarial drug resistance.

Costing malaria interventions from pilots to elimination programmes

Background

Malaria programmes in countries with low transmission levels require evidence to optimize deployment of current and new tools to reach elimination with limited resources. Recent pilots of elimination strategies in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia produced evidence of their epidemiological impacts and costs. There is a need to generalize these findings to different epidemiological and health systems contexts.

Methods

Drawing on experience of implementing partners, operational documents and costing studies from these pilots, reference scenarios were defined for rapid reporting (RR), reactive case detection (RACD), mass drug administration (MDA), and in-door residual spraying (IRS). These generalized interventions from their trial implementation to one typical of programmatic delivery. In doing so, resource use due to interventions was isolated from research activities and was related to the pilot setting. Costing models developed around this reference implementation, standardized the scope of resources costed, the valuation of resource use, and the setting in which interventions were evaluated. Sensitivity analyses were used to inform generalizability of the estimates and model assumptions.

Results

Populated with local prices and resource use from the pilots, the models yielded an average annual economic cost per capita of $0.18 for RR, $0.75 for RACD, $4.28 for MDA (two rounds), and $1.79 for IRS (one round, 50% households). Intervention design and resource use at service delivery were key drivers of variation in costs of RR, MDA, and RACD. Scale was the most important parameter for IRS. Overall price level was a minor contributor, except for MDA where drugs accounted for 70% of the cost. The analyses showed that at implementation scales comparable to health facility catchment area, systematic correlations between model inputs characterizing implementation and setting produce large gradients in costs.

Conclusions

Prospective costing models are powerful tools to explore resource and cost implications of policy alternatives. By formalizing translation of operational data into an estimate of intervention cost, these models provide the methodological infrastructure to strengthen capacity gap for economic evaluation in endemic countries. The value of this approach for decision-making is enhanced when primary cost data collection is designed to enable analysis of the efficiency of operational inputs in relation to features of the trial or the setting, thus facilitating transferability.

Modelling Malaria Incidence in the Limpopo Province, South Africa: Comparison of Classical and Bayesian Methods of Estimation

Malaria infects and kills millions of people in Africa, predominantly in hot regions where temperatures during the day and night are typically high. In South Africa, Limpopo Province is the hottest province in the country and therefore prone to malaria incidence. The districts of Vhembe, Mopani and Sekhukhune are the hottest districts in the province. Malaria cases in these districts are common and malaria is among the leading causes of illness and deaths in these districts. Factors contributing to malaria incidence in Limpopo Province have not been deeply investigated, aside from the general knowledge that the province is the hottest in South Africa. Bayesian and classical methods of estimation have been applied and compared on the effect of climatic factors on malaria incidence. Credible and confidence intervals from a negative binomial model estimated via Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively, were utilized in the comparison process. Overall assumptions underpinning each method were given. The Bayesian method appeared more robust than the classical method in analysing malaria incidence in Limpopo Province. The classical method identified rainfall and temperature during the night to be significant predictors of malaria incidence in Mopani, Vhembe and Waterberg districts. However, the Bayesian method found rainfall, normalised difference vegetation index, elevation, temperatures during the day and night to be the significant predictors of malaria incidence in Mopani, Sekhukhune and Vhembe districts of Limpopo Province. Both methods affirmed that Vhembe district is more susceptible to malaria incidence, followed by Mopani district. We recommend that the Department of Health and Malaria Control Programme of South Africa allocate more resources for malaria control, prevention and elimination to Vhembe and Mopani districts of Limpopo Province.

High levels of imported asymptomatic malaria but limited local transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, a South African malaria-endemic province nearing malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

KwaZulu-Natal, one of South Africa's three malaria endemic provinces, is nearing malaria elimination, reporting fewer than 100 locally-acquired cases annually since 2010. Despite sustained implementation of essential interventions, including annual indoor residual spraying, prompt case detection using malaria rapid diagnostics tests and treatment with effective artemisinin-based combination therapy, low-level focal transmission persists in the province. This malaria prevalence and entomological survey was therefore undertaken to identify the drivers of this residual transmission.

METHODS

Malaria prevalence as well as malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices among community members and mobile migrant populations within uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal were assessed during a community-based malaria prevalence survey. All consenting participants were tested for malaria by both conventional and highly-sensitive falciparum-specific rapid diagnostic tests. Finger-prick filter-paper blood spots were also collected from all participants for downstream parasite genotyping analysis. Entomological investigations were conducted around the surveyed households, with potential breeding sites geolocated and larvae collected for species identification and insecticide susceptibility testing. A random selection of households were assessed for indoor residual spray quality by cone bioassay.

RESULTS

A low malaria prevalence was confirmed in the study area, with only 2% (67/2979) of the participants found to be malaria positive by both conventional and highly-sensitive falciparum-specific rapid diagnostic tests. Malaria prevalence however differed markedly between the border market and community (p < 0001), with the majority of the detected malaria carriers (65/67) identified as asymptomatic Mozambican nationals transiting through the informal border market from Mozambique to economic hubs within South Africa. Genomic analysis of the malaria isolates revealed a high degree of heterozygosity and limited genetic relatedness between the isolates supporting the hypothesis of limited local malaria transmission within the province. New potential vector breeding sites, potential vector populations with reduced insecticide susceptibility and areas with sub-optimal vector intervention coverage were identified during the entomological investigations.

CONCLUSION

If KwaZulu-Natal is to successfully halt local malaria transmission and prevent the re-introduction of malaria, greater efforts need to be placed on detecting and treating malaria carriers at both formal and informal border crossings with transmission blocking anti-malarials, while ensuring optimal coverage of vector control interventions is achieved.

Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa

This contribution aims to investigate the influence of monthly total rainfall variations on malaria transmission in the Limpopo Province. For this purpose, monthly total rainfall was interpolated from daily rainfall data from weather stations. Annual and seasonal trends, as well as cross-correlation analyses, were performed on time series of monthly total rainfall and monthly malaria cases in five districts of Limpopo Province for the period of 1998 to 2017. The time series analysis indicated that an average of 629.5 mm of rainfall was received over the period of study. The rainfall has an annual variation of about 0.46%. Rainfall amount varied within the five districts, with the northeastern part receiving more rainfall. Spearman's correlation analysis indicated that the total monthly rainfall with one to two months lagged effect is significant in malaria transmission across all the districts. The strongest correlation was noticed in Vhembe (r = 0.54; p-value = <0.001), Mopani (r = 0.53; p-value = <0.001), Waterberg (r = 0.40; p-value =< 0.001), Capricorn (r = 0.37; p-value = <0.001) and lowest in Sekhukhune (r = 0.36; p-value = <0.001). Seasonally, the results indicated that about 68% variation in malaria cases in summer-December, January, and February (DJF)-can be explained by spring-September, October, and November (SON)-rainfall in Vhembe district. Both annual and seasonal analyses indicated that there is variation in the effect of rainfall on malaria across the districts and it is seasonally dependent. Understanding the dynamics of climatic variables annually and seasonally is essential in providing answers to malaria transmission among other factors, particularly with respect to the abrupt spikes of the disease in the province.

Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model

Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.

Decadal epidemiology of malaria in KwaZulu-Natal, a province in South Africa targeting elimination

Background

Although malaria remains a noteworthy disease in South Africa, the provinces are at differing stages of the malaria elimination continuum. KwaZulu-Natal has consistently reported the lowest number of cases over the past 5 years and it is expected that the goal of elimination will be achieved in this province over the next few years. The study reports on few key indicators that realistically represents the provinces progress over the past decade. Local and imported morbidity and mortality is seen as the key indicator as is malaria in children under the age of five and pregnant women. The only vector control intervention in the province is indoor residual spraying (IRS) and this gives an estimate of the population protected by this intervention.

Methods

Trend analysis was used to examine the changing epidemiology in KwaZulu-Natal over the past decade from 2008 to 2018. The data used in this decadal analysis was obtained from the provincial Department of Health. Since malaria is a medically notifiable disease, all malaria cases diagnosed in the province are reported from health facilities and are captured in the malaria information system in the province.

Results

The results have shown that imported cases are on the increase whilst local cases are decreasing, in keeping with an elimination objective. Preventing secondary cases is the key to reaching elimination. Only 10% of the cases reported occur in children under 5 years whereas the cases in pregnant women account for about 1% of the reported cases. Over 85% of the houses receive IRS and this is also the same proportion of the population protected by the intervention.

Conclusion

Several challenges to elimination have been identified but these are not insurmountable. Although there are major impediments to achieving elimination, the changing epidemiology suggests that major strides have been made in the past 10 years and KwaZulu-Natal is on track to achieving this milestone in the next few years.

Applying next-generation sequencing to track falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies are increasingly being used to address a diverse range of biological and epidemiological questions. The current understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and parasite movement mainly relies on the analyses of epidemiologic data, e.g. case counts and self-reported travel history data. However, travel history data are often not routinely collected or are incomplete, lacking the necessary level of accuracy. Although genetic data from routinely collected field samples provides an unprecedented opportunity to track the spread of malaria parasites, it remains an underutilized resource for surveillance due to lack of local awareness and capacity, limited access to sensitive laboratory methods and associated computational tools and difficulty in interpreting genetic epidemiology data. In this review, the potential roles of NGS in better understanding of transmission patterns, accurately tracking parasite movement and addressing the emerging challenges of imported malaria in low transmission settings of sub-Saharan Africa are discussed. Furthermore, this review highlights the insights gained from malaria genomic research and challenges associated with integrating malaria genomics into existing surveillance tools to inform control and elimination strategies.

Anopheles parensis contributes to residual malaria transmission in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Understanding the contribution of outdoor-resting Anopheles mosquitoes to residual malaria transmission is important in terms of scaling up vector control towards malaria elimination in South Africa. The aim of this project was to assess the potential role of Anopheles parensis and other Anopheles species in residual malaria transmission, using sentinel surveillance sites in the uMkhanyakude District of northern KwaZulu-Natal Province.

METHODS

Monthly vector surveillance was conducted at the sentinel sites from January 2017 to May 2018. Outdoor-placed clay pot resting traps were used to collect male and female adult Anopheles mosquitoes. All Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus group specimens collected were identified to species and all females were screened for Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (CSP) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Samples showing infectivity for P. falciparum were further verified by a nested PCR and subsequent DNA sequence analysis.

RESULTS

From a sample of 491 anophelines, Anopheles arabiensis (n = 228) and An. parensis (n = 194) were the most abundant. Other species collected included Anopheles merus (n =11), Anopheles quadriannulatus (n = 10), Anopheles leesoni (n = 29), Anopheles rivulorum (n =18), and Anopheles vaneedeni (n =1). Of the 317 female specimens screened for P. falciparum CSP, one Anopheles arabiensis and one An. parensis showed positive by ELISA and Plasmodium nested PCR. For the An. parensis specimen, confirmation of its species identity was based on sequence analysis of the ITS2 region, and the presence of P. falciparum DNA was further confirmed by sequence analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Anopheles parensis is a potential vector of malaria in South Africa although its contribution to transmission is likely to be minimal at best owing to its strong zoophilic tendency. By contrast, An. arabiensis is a major vector that is primarily responsible for the bulk of residual malaria transmission in South Africa. As all recently collected sporozoite-positive Anopheles mosquitoes were found in outdoor-placed resting traps, it is necessary to introduce interventions that can be used to control outdoor-resting vector populations while maintaining the efficacy of South Africa's indoor house spraying operations.

Field-based evaluation of malaria outbreak detection and response in Mudzi and Goromonzi districts, Zimbabwe - 2017

National-level evaluations may fail to identify capacity improvements for detecting and responding to outbreaks which begin and are first detected at the local level. In response to this issue, we conducted a field-based assessment of the malaria outbreak surveillance system in Mashonaland East, Zimbabwe. We visited eleven clinics in Mudzi and Goromonzi districts. Twenty-one interviews were conducted with key informants from the provincial (n = 2), district (n = 7), and clinic (n = 12) levels. Interviews focused on surveillance system activities, preparedness, data quality, timeliness, stability, and usefulness. Main themes were captured utilising standard qualitative data analysis techniques. While the surveillance system detects malaria outbreaks at all levels, we identified several gaps. Clinics experience barriers to timely and reliable reporting of outbreaks to the district level and staff cross-training. Stability of resources, including transportation (33% of informants, n = 7) and staff capacity (48% of informants, n = 10), presented barriers. Strengthening these surveillance barriers may improve staff readiness to detect malaria outbreaks, resulting in timelier outbreak response and a reduction in malaria outbreaks, cases, and deaths. By focusing at the local level, our assessment approach provides a framework for identifying and addressing gaps that may be overlooked when utilising tools that evaluate surveillance capacity at the national level.

Safety and tolerability of single low-dose primaquine in a low-intensity transmission area in South Africa: an open-label, randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

To reduce onward falciparum malaria transmission, the World Health Organization recommends adding single low-dose (SLD) primaquine to artemisinin-based combination treatment in low transmission areas. However, uptake of this recommendation has been relatively slow given concerns about whether individual risks justify potential community benefit. This study was undertaken to generate comprehensive local data on the risk-benefit profile of SLD primaquine deployment in a pre-elimination area in South Africa.

METHODS

This randomized, controlled open-label trial investigated adding a single low primaquine dose on day 3 to standard artemether-lumefantrine treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Efficacy, safety and tolerability of artemether-lumefantrine and primaquine treatment were assessed on days 3, 7, 14, 28 and 42. Lumefantrine concentrations were assayed from dried blood spot samples collected on day 7.

RESULTS

Of 217 patients screened, 166 were enrolled with 140 randomized on day 3, 70 to each study arm (primaquine and no primaquine). No gametocytes were detected by either microscopy or PCR in any of the follow-up samples collected after randomization on day 3, precluding assessment of primaquine efficacy. Prevalence of the CYP2D6*4, CYP2D6*10 and CYP2D6*17 mutant alleles was low with allelic frequencies of 0.02, 0.11 and 0.16, respectively; none had the CYP2D6*4/*4 variant associated with null activity. Among 172 RDT-positive patients G6PD-genotyped, 24 (14%) carried the G6PD deficient (A-) variant. Median haemoglobin concentrations were similar between treatment arms throughout follow-up. A third of participants had a haemoglobin drop > 2 g/dL; this was not associated with primaquine treatment but may be associated with G6PD genotype [52.9% (9/17) with A- genotype vs. 31% (36/116) with other genotypes (p = 0.075)]. Day 7 lumefantrine concentrations and the number and nature of adverse events were similar between study arms; only one serious adverse event occurred (renal impairment in the no primaquine arm). The artemether-lumefantrine PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response rate was 100%, with only one re-infection found among the 128 patients who completed 42-day follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Safety, tolerability, CYP2D6 and G6PD variant data from this study support the deployment of the WHO-recommended SLD primaquine without G6PD testing to advance malaria elimination in South African districts with low-intensity residual transmission. Trial registration Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, PACTR201611001859416. Registered 11 November 2016, https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=1859.

A community-based education programme to reduce insecticide exposure from indoor residual spraying in Limpopo, South Africa

Background

Indoor residual spraying (IRS), the coating of interior walls of houses with insecticides, is common in malaria-endemic areas. While important in malaria control, IRS potentially exposes residents to harmful insecticides. The World Health Organization recommends steps to minimize exposure; however, no programme has focused on educating populations.

Methods

A dramatic presentation and song were developed by study personnel and performed by lay performers in order to spread awareness of the importance of IRS and to minimize insecticide exposure. Performances were staged at 16 sprayed villages in the Vhembe District of Limpopo, South Africa, at which 592 attendees completed short questionnaires before and after the performance about behaviors that might limit insecticide exposure. Overall indices of the attendees’ change in knowledge of precautions to take prior to and after spraying to prevent insecticide exposure were analyzed using hierarchical mixed models to assess the effect of the performance on change in participants’ knowledge.

Results

Approximately half of attendees lived in homes that had been sprayed for malaria and 62% were female. Over 90% thought it better to allow IRS prior to the presentation, but knowledge of proper precautions to prevent exposure was low. The proportion answering correctly about proper distance from home during spraying increased from 49.4% pre-performance to 62.0% post-performance (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.13, 1.41), and the proportion reporting correctly about home re-entry interval after spraying increased from 58.5 to 91.1% (RR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.35, 1.77). Attendees improved in their knowledge about precautions to take prior to and after spraying from mean of 57.9% correct to a mean of 69.7% (β = 12.1%, 95% CI 10.9, 13.4). Specifically, increased knowledge in closing cupboards, removing food and bedding from the home, covering immoveable items with plastic, and leading animals away from the home prior to spraying were observed, as was increased knowledge in sweeping the floors, proper disposal of dead insects, and discarding dirty washrags after spraying.

Conclusions

A dramatic presentation and song were able to increase the attendees’ knowledge of precautions to take prior to and after spraying in order to limit their insecticide exposure resulting from IRS. This approach to community education is promising and deserves additional study.

Assessing Kwa-Zulu-Natal's progress towards malaria elimination and its readiness for sub-national verification

Background

The South African province of KwaZulu-Natal is rapidly approaching elimination status for malaria with a steady decline in local cases. With the possibility of achieving elimination in reach, the KZN malaria control programme conducted a critical evaluation of its practices and protocols to identify potential challenges and priorities to achieving elimination. Three fundamental questions were addressed: (1) How close is KZN to malaria elimination; (2) Are all systems required to pursue subnational verification of elimination in place; and (3) What priority interventions must be implemented to reduce local cases to zero?

Methods

Based on the 2017 World Health Organization Framework for Elimination, twenty-eight requirements were identified, from which forty-nine indicators to grade elimination progress were further stratified. Malaria data were extracted from the surveillance system and other programme data sources to calculate each indicator and semi-quantitatively rate performance into one of four categories to assess the provinces elimination preparedness.

Results

Across the key components a number of gaps were elucidated based on specific indicators. Out of the 49 indicators across these key components, 10 indicators (20%) were rated as fully implemented/well implemented, 11 indicators (22%) were rated as partially done/somewhat implemented/activity needs to be strengthened, and 12 indicators (24%) were rated as not done at all/not implemented/poor performance. Sixteen indicators (33%) could not be calculated due to lack of data or missing data.

Conclusions

The critical self-evaluation of programme performance has allowed the KZN malaria programme to plan to address key issues moving forward. Based on the findings from the checklist review process, planning exercises were conducted to improve lower-rating indicators, and a monitoring and evaluation framework was created to assess progress on a monthly basis. This is scheduled to be reviewed annually to ensure continued progress toward meeting the elimination goal. In addition, multiple dissemination meetings were held with both provincial senior management and operational staff to ensure ownership of the checklist and its action plan at all levels.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2739-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Using participatory risk analysis to develop a song about malaria for young children in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Background

In 2015, malaria infected over 212 million people and killed over 429,000 individuals, mostly children under 5 years of age, with 90% of malaria cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim was to develop an age and culturally appropriate song for Tshivenda-speaking children under 5 years of age to decrease the risk of malaria in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Methods

Document review was used to identify appropriate disease determinants to decrease risk in children < 5 years old in the study area. These were used to develop lyrics and music for a song about malaria in line with the principles of participatory risk analysis. The age and cultural appropriateness of the song as well as disease determinants chosen were reviewed using a modified Delphi technique, by 10 purposively selected experts in malaria (4), Vhavenda music (3) and early childhood education (3). Thereafter, the song was translated into Tshivenda and reviewed by two focus groups living in the study area, one including female caregivers and pre-school teachers (n = 7) and a second comprising of male community based malaria control personnel (n = 5).

Results

The experts surveyed and both focus groups strongly supported the inclusion of knowledge about the link between mosquitoes and malaria and that children should know the signs of malaria to facilitate early diagnosis. Although the expert group felt that bed nets should not be mentioned, both focus groups suggested the inclusion of bed nets and it was observed that community members were purchasing their own nets. Focus group members also felt that young children should not be involved in internal residual spraying initiatives.

Conclusions

It was concluded that although risk communication on malaria prevention and treatment in young children should be aimed at caregivers, an age and culture appropriate song about malaria could be developed to help young children protect themselves. This song focused on understanding the link between mosquitoes and malaria, preventing exposure and recognising signs of disease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2320-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Changing distribution and abundance of the malaria vector Anopheles merus in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Background: The malaria vector Anopheles merus occurs in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. As its contribution to malaria transmission in South Africa has yet to be ascertained, an intensification of surveillance is necessary to provide baseline information on this species. The aim of this study was therefore to map An. merus breeding sites in the Ehlanzeni District of Mpumalanga Province and to assess qualitative trends in the distribution and relative abundance of this species over a 9-year period. Methods: The study was carried out during the period 2005-2014 in the four high-risk municipalities of Ehlanzeni District. Fifty-two breeding sites were chosen from all water bodies that produced anopheline mosquitoes. The study data were extracted from historical entomological records that are captured monthly. Results: Of the 15 058 Anopheles mosquitoes collected, 64% were An. merus. The abundance and distribution of An. merus increased throughout the four municipalities in Ehlanzeni District during the study period. Conclusion: The expanded distribution and increased abundance of An. merus in the Ehlanzeni District may contribute significantly to locally acquired malaria in Mpumalanga Province, likely necessitating the incorporation of additional vector control methods specifically directed against populations of this species.

A review of progress towards sub-national malaria elimination in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe (2011-2015): a qualitative study

Background

Malaria remains a public health problem in Zimbabwe. However, malaria elimination has become a foreseeable prospect with Matabeleland South Province making significant gains towards halting local malaria transmission. This study reviews malaria elimination progress and challenges to date utilizing the World Health Organization’s Malaria Programme Review framework.

Results

Between 2011 and 2015, malaria incidence was less than one case per 1000 population at risk in all districts save for Beitbridge and Gwanda. The majority of cases were from Beitbridge with local transmission in the same. Incidence declined in Bulilima (p = 0.01), Gwanda (p = 0.72) and Umzingwane (p = 0.44), increasing in Beitbridge (p = 0.35), Insiza (p = 0.79) and Mangwe (p = 0.60). Overall provincial incidence declined although this was not statistically significant. Malaria transmission was bimodal, with a major peak in April and a minor peak in October. A case based malaria surveillance system existed but was not real-time. Foci response guidelines were not domesticated. Artemisinin formed the backbone of case management regimens with primaquine for gametocyte clearance. Indoor residual spraying coverages were below the national target of 95% for rooms targeted for spraying.

Conclusion

Matabeleland South province has set precedence for targeting sub-national malaria elimination in Zimbabwe. This experience may prove useful for national scale up. There is need to improve surveillance, foci response and intensification of activities to halt residual malaria transmission in Beitbridge District.

Understanding human genetic factors influencing primaquine safety and efficacy to guide primaquine roll-out in a pre-elimination setting in southern Africa

Background

Primaquine (PQ) is recommended as an addition to standard malaria treatments in pre-elimination settings due to its pronounced activity against mature Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes, the parasite stage responsible for onward transmission to mosquitoes. However, PQ may trigger haemolysis in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient individuals. Additional human genetic factors, including polymorphisms in the human cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) complex, may negatively influence the efficacy of PQ. This study assessed the prevalence of G6PD deficiency and two important CYP2D6 variants in representative pre-elimination settings in South Africa, to inform malaria elimination strategies.

Methods

Volunteers (n = 248) attending six primary health care facilities in a malaria-endemic region of South Africa were enrolled between October and November 2015. G6PD status was determined phenotypically, using a CareStart™ G6PD rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and genotypically for two common African G6PD variants, namely A+ (A376G) and A− (G202A, A542T, G680T & T968C) by PCR, restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) and DNA sequencing. CYP2D6*4 and CYP2D6*17 variants were determined with PCR and RFLP.

Results

A prevalence of 13% (33/248) G6PD deficiency was observed in the cohort by G6PD RDT whilst by genotypic assessment, 32% (79/248) were A+ and 3.2% were A−, respectively. Among the male participants, 11% (6/55) were G6PD A− hemizygous; among females 1% (2/193) were G6PD A− homozygous and 16% (32/193) G6PD A− heterozygous. The strength of agreement between phenotyping and genotyping result was fair (Cohens Kappa κ = 0.310). The negative predictive value for the G6PD RDT for detecting hemizygous, homozygous and heterozygous individuals was 0.88 (95% CI 0.85–0.91), compared to the more sensitive genotyping. The CYP2D6*4 allele frequencies for CYP2D6*4 (inferred poor metabolizer phenotype) and CYP2D6*17 (inferred intermediate metabolizer phenotype) were 3.2 and 19.5%, respectively.

Conclusions

Phenotypic and genotypic analyses both detected low prevalence of G6PD deficiency and the CYP2D6*4 variants. These findings, combined with increasing data confirming safety of single low-dose PQ in individuals with African variants of G6PD deficiency, supports the deployment of single low-dose PQ as a gametocytocidal drug. PQ would pose minimal risks to the study populations and could be a useful elimination strategy in the study area.

Mapping road network communities for guiding disease surveillance and control strategies

Human mobility is increasing in its volume, speed and reach, leading to the movement and introduction of pathogens through infected travelers. An understanding of how areas are connected, the strength of these connections and how this translates into disease spread is valuable for planning surveillance and designing control and elimination strategies. While analyses have been undertaken to identify and map connectivity in global air, shipping and migration networks, such analyses have yet to be undertaken on the road networks that carry the vast majority of travellers in low and middle income settings. Here we present methods for identifying road connectivity communities, as well as mapping bridge areas between communities and key linkage routes. We apply these to Africa, and show how many highly-connected communities straddle national borders and when integrating malaria prevalence and population data as an example, the communities change, highlighting regions most strongly connected to areas of high burden. The approaches and results presented provide a flexible tool for supporting the design of disease surveillance and control strategies through mapping areas of high connectivity that form coherent units of intervention and key link routes between communities for targeting surveillance.

Evaluating Efficacy of Landsat-Derived Environmental Covariates for Predicting Malaria Distribution in Rural Villages of Vhembe District, South Africa

Malaria in South Africa is still a problem despite existing efforts to eradicate the disease. In the Vhembe District Municipality, malaria prevalence is still high, with a mean incidence rate of 328.2 per 100,0000 persons/year. This study aimed at evaluating environmental covariates, such as vegetation moisture and vegetation greenness, associated with malaria vector distribution for better predictability towards rapid and efficient disease management and control. The 2005 malaria incidence data combined with Landsat 5 ETM were used in this study. A total of nine remotely sensed covariates were derived, while pseudo-absences in the ratio of 1:2 (presence/absence) were generated at buffer distances of 0.5-20 km from known presence locations. A stepwise logistic regression model was applied to analyse the spatial distribution of malaria in the area. A buffer distance of 10 km yielded the highest classification accuracy of 82% at a threshold of 0.9. This model was significant (ρ < 0.05) and yielded a deviance (D²) of 36%. The significantly positive relationship (ρ < 0.05) between the soil-adjusted vegetation index and malaria distribution at all buffer distances suggests that malaria vector (Anopheles arabiensis) prefer productive and greener vegetation. The significant negative relationship between water/moisture index (a₁ index) and malaria distribution in buffer distances of 0.5, 10, and 20 km suggest that malaria distribution increases with a decrease in shortwave reflectance signal. The study has shown that suitable habitats of malaria vectors are generally found within a radius of 10 km in semi-arid environments, and this insight can be useful to aid efforts aimed at putting in place evidence-based preventative measures against malaria infections. Furthermore, this result is important in understanding malaria dynamics under the current climate and environmental changes. The study has also demonstrated the use of Landsat data and the ability to extract environmental conditions which favour the distribution of malaria vector (An. arabiensis) such as the canopy moisture content in vegetation, which serves as a surrogate for rainfall.

Interactive Malaria Education Intervention and Its Effect on Community Participant Knowledge: The Malaria Awareness Program in Vhembe District, Limpopo, South Africa

Malaria is preventable and treatable, yet remains the most prevalent parasitic endemic disease in Africa. This article analyzes prospective observational data from the Malaria Awareness Program (MAP), an interactive malaria education initiative led by home-based care workers to improve participant knowledge of malaria as a precursor to increased uptake of malaria control interventions in the Vhembe District, Limpopo, South Africa. Between 2012 and 2016, 1,330 individuals participated in MAP. MAP's effectiveness was measured through pre- and post-participation surveys assessing knowledge in malaria transmission, symptoms, prevention, and treatment. The primary analysis assessed differences in knowledge between individuals who completed MAP ( n = 499) and individuals who did not complete MAP ( n = 399). The adjusted odds of correct malaria knowledge score versus partially correct or incorrect score among MAP completers was 3.3 and 2.8 times greater for transmission and prevention, respectively ( p values<.001). A subanalysis assessed knowledge improvement among participants who completed both pre- and post-MAP intervention surveys ( n = 266). There was a 21.4% and 10.5% increase in the proportion of participants who cited correct malaria transmission and prevention methods, respectively. Future research should assess behavioral changes toward malaria prevention and treatment as a result of an intervention and examine incidence changes in the region.

malERA: An updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication

This paper summarises key advances and priorities since the 2011 presentation of the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA), with a focus on the combinations of intervention tools and strategies for elimination and their evaluation using modelling approaches. With an increasing number of countries embarking on malaria elimination programmes, national and local decisions to select combinations of tools and deployment strategies directed at malaria elimination must address rapidly changing transmission patterns across diverse geographic areas. However, not all of these approaches can be systematically evaluated in the field. Thus, there is potential for modelling to investigate appropriate 'packages' of combined interventions that include various forms of vector control, case management, surveillance, and population-based approaches for different settings, particularly at lower transmission levels. Modelling can help prioritise which intervention packages should be tested in field studies, suggest which intervention package should be used at a particular level or stratum of transmission intensity, estimate the risk of resurgence when scaling down specific interventions after local transmission is interrupted, and evaluate the risk and impact of parasite drug resistance and vector insecticide resistance. However, modelling intervention package deployment against a heterogeneous transmission background is a challenge. Further validation of malaria models should be pursued through an iterative process, whereby field data collected with the deployment of intervention packages is used to refine models and make them progressively more relevant for assessing and predicting elimination outcomes.

Serology reveals heterogeneity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in northeastern South Africa: implications for malaria elimination

Background

It is widely acknowledged that modifications to existing control interventions are required if South Africa is to achieve malaria elimination. Targeting indoor residual spraying (IRS) to areas where cases have been detected is one strategy currently under investigation in northeastern South Africa. This seroprevalence baseline study, nested within a targeted IRS trial, was undertaken to provide insights into malaria transmission dynamics in South Africa and evaluate whether sero-epidemiological practices have the potential to be routinely incorporated into elimination programmes.

Methods

Filter-paper blood spots, demographic and household survey data were collected from 2710 randomly selected households in 56 study wards located in the municipalities of Ba-Phalaborwa and Bushbuckridge. Blood spots were assayed for Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen-1 and merozoite surface protein-1₁₉ blood-stage antigens using an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Seroprevalence data were analysed using a reverse catalytic model to determine malaria seroconversion rates (SCR). Geospatial cluster analysis was used to investigate transmission heterogeneity while random effects logistic regression identified risk factors associated with malaria exposure.

Results

The overall SCR across the entire study site was 0.012 (95% CI 0.008–0.017) per year. Contrasting SCRs, corresponding to distinct geographical regions across the study site, ranging from <0.001 (95% CI <0.001–0.005) to 0.022 (95% CI 0.008–0.062) per annum revealed prominent transmission heterogeneity. Geospatial cluster analysis of household seroprevalence and age-adjusted antibody responses detected statistically significant (p < 0.05) spatial clusters of P. falciparum exposure. Formal secondary education was associated with lower malaria exposure in the sampled population (AOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56–0.95, p = 0.018).

Conclusions

Although overall transmission intensity and exposure to malaria was low across both study sites, malaria transmission intensity was highly heterogeneous and associated with low socio-economic status in the region. Findings suggest focal targeting of interventions has the potential to be an appropriate strategy to deploy in South Africa. Furthermore, routinely incorporating sero-epidemiological practices into elimination programmes may prove useful in monitoring malaria transmission intensity in South Africa, and other countries striving for malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1701-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.