Models of effectiveness of interventions against malaria transmitted by Anopheles albimanus

AnophelesModel: An R package to interface mosquito bionomics, human exposure and intervention effects with models of malaria intervention impact

In recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies. To facilitate this process and make model predictions of intervention impact available for different geographical regions, we developed AnophelesModel. AnophelesModel is an online, open-access R package that quantifies the impact of vector control interventions depending on mosquito species and location-specific characteristics. In addition, it includes a previously published, comprehensive, curated database of field entomological data from over 50 Anopheles species, field data on mosquito and human behaviour, and estimates of vector control effectiveness. Using the input data, the package parameterizes a discrete-time, state transition model of the mosquito oviposition cycle and infers species-specific impacts of various interventions on vectorial capacity. In addition, it offers formatted outputs ready to use in downstream analyses and by other models of malaria transmission for accurate representation of the vector-specific components. Using AnophelesModel, we show how the key implications for intervention impact change for various vectors and locations. The package facilitates quantitative comparisons of likely intervention impacts in different geographical settings varying in vector compositions, and can thus guide towards more robust and efficient malaria control recommendations. The AnophelesModel R package is available under a GPL-3.0 license at https://github.com/SwissTPH/AnophelesModel.

Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission

Most mathematical models that assess the vectorial capacity of disease-transmitting insects typically focus on the influence of climatic factors to predict variations across different times and locations, or examine the impact of vector control interventions to forecast their potential effectiveness. We combine features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. This model considers how vector control tools affect vectors at each stage of their feeding cycle, and incorporates host availability and preference. Applying this model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe, we show that African horse sickness virus (AHSV) has a higher peak predicted vectorial capacity than bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). However, AHSV has a shorter average infectious period due to high mortality; therefore, the overall basic reproduction number of AHSV is similar to BTV. A comparable relationship exists between SBV and EHDV, with both viruses showing similar basic reproduction numbers. Focusing on AHSV transmission in the UK, insecticide-treated stable netting is shown to significantly reduce vectorial capacity of Culicoides, even at low coverage levels. However, untreated stable netting is likely to have limited impact. Overall, this model can be used to consider both climate and vector control interventions either currently utilised or for potential use in an outbreak, and could help guide policy makers seeking to mitigate the impact of climate change on disease control.

Field evaluation of a volatile pyrethroid spatial repellent and etofenprox treated clothing for outdoor protection against forest malaria vectors in Cambodia

Cambodia's goal to eliminate malaria by 2025 is challenged by persistent transmission in forest and forest fringe areas, where people are exposed to Anopheles mosquito bites during the day and night. Volatile pyrethroid spatial repellents (VPSRs) and insecticide-treated clothing (ITC) could address these gaps. This study evaluated the outdoor application of one passive transfluthrin-based VPSR, four etofenprox-ITCs paired with a picaridin topical repellent, and a combination of VPSR and ITC against wild Anopheles landing in Cambodia. A 7 × 7 Latin-square study was conducted over 49 collection nights in temporary open structures in Mondulkiri Province. All interventions substantially reduced Anopheles landing, with protective efficacy ranging from 61 to 95%. Mathematical modeling showed significant reductions in vectoral capacity, especially with the combined ITC and VPSR and VPSR alone, albeit with decreased effectiveness over time. These interventions have the potential to reduce outdoor and daytime Anopheles biting, offering valuable contributions to malaria elimination efforts in Cambodia and the Greater Mekong Subregion, contingent upon achieving effective coverage and adherence.

Evaluating human landing catches as a measure of mosquito biting and the importance of considering additional modes of action

Entomological evaluations of vector control tools often use human landing catches (HLCs) as a standard measure of a direct human-vector contact. However, some tools have additional characteristics, such as mortality, and HLCS are not sensitive for measuring other effects beyond landing inhibition. Therefore, additional measures may need to be considered when evaluating these tools for public health use. This study has two main aims (1) the evaluate the accuracy of HLCs as a proxy for feeding and (2) to compare the predicted reduction in vectorial capacity when we do and do not consider these additional characteristics. To achieve this, we analyse previously published semi-field data from an experiment which used HLCs and another where mosquitoes were allowed to feed in the presence of different dosages of the volatile pyrethroid spatial repellent, transfluthrin. We compare results for two mathematical models: one which only considers the reduction in feeding effect and one which also considers mortality before and after feeding (using data gathered by the aspiration of mosquitoes after the semi-field feeding/landing period and 24 h survival monitoring). These Bayesian hierarchical models are parameterised using Bayesian inference. We observe that, for susceptible mosquitoes, reduction in landing is underestimated by HLCs. For knockdown resistant mosquitoes the relationship is less clear; with HLCs sometimes appearing to overestimate this characteristic. We find HLCs tend to under-predict the relative reduction in vectorial capacity in susceptible mosquitoes while over-predicting this impact in knockdown-resistant mosquitoes. Models without secondary effects have lower predicted relative reductions in vectorial capacities. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering additional characteristics to reduction in biting of volatile pyrethroid spatial repellents. We recommend that these are considered when evaluating novel vector control tools.

Optimizing malaria vector control in the Greater Mekong Subregion: a systematic review and mathematical modelling study to identify desirable intervention characteristics

BACKGROUND

In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), new vector-control tools are needed to target mosquitoes that bite outside during the daytime and night-time to advance malaria elimination.

METHODS

We conducted systematic literature searches to generate a bionomic dataset of the main malaria vectors in the GMS, including human blood index (HBI), parity proportion, sac proportion (proportion with uncontracted ovary sacs, indicating the amount of time until they returned to host seeking after oviposition) and the resting period duration. We then performed global sensitivity analyses to assess the influence of bionomics and intervention characteristics on vectorial capacity.

RESULTS

Our review showed that Anopheles minimus, An. sinensis, An. maculatus and An. sundaicus display opportunistic blood-feeding behaviour, while An. dirus is more anthropophilic. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that environmental, climatic and sampling factors influence the proportion of parous mosquitoes, and resting duration varies seasonally. Sensitivity analysis highlighted HBI and parity proportion as the most influential bionomic parameters, followed by resting duration. Killing before feeding is always a desirable characteristic across all settings in the GMS. Disarming is also a desirable characteristic in settings with a low HBI. Repelling is only an effective strategy in settings with a low HBI and low parity proportion. Killing after feeding is only a desirable characteristic if the HBI and parity proportions in the setting are high.

CONCLUSIONS

Although in general adopting tools that kill before feeding would have the largest community-level effect on reducing outdoor transmission, other modes of action can be effective. Current tools in development which target outdoor biting mosquitoes should be implemented in different settings dependent on their characteristics.

Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use

In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings without significant seasonal pattern, we introduce a simple mathematical model that can be easily adapted to reported case numbers similar to that collected by surveillance systems in various countries. The model includes case management, vector control, mass drug administration and reactive case detection interventions and is implemented in both deterministic and stochastic frameworks. It is available as an R package to enable users to calibrate and simulate it with their own data. Although we only illustrate its use on fictitious data, by simulating and comparing the impact of various intervention combinations on malaria risk and burden, this model could be a useful tool for strategic planning, implementation and resource mobilization.

Inference for entomological semi-field experiments: Fitting a mathematical model assessing personal and community protection of vector-control interventions

The effectiveness of vector-control tools is often assessed by experiments as a reduction in mosquito landings using human landing catches (HLCs). However, HLCs alone only quantify a single characteristic and therefore do not provide information on the overall impacts of the intervention product. Using data from a recent semi-field study which used time-stratified HLCs, aspiration of non-landing mosquitoes, and blood feeding, we suggest a Bayesian inference approach for fitting such data to a stochastic model. This model considers both personal protection, through a reduction in biting, and community protection, from mosquito mortality and disarming (prolonged inhibition of blood feeding). Parameter estimates are then used to predict the reduction of vectorial capacity induced by etofenpox-treated clothing, picaridin topical repellents, transfluthrin spatial repellents and metofluthrin spatial repellents, as well as combined interventions for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Anopleles minimus. Overall, all interventions had both personal and community effects, preventing biting and killing or disarming mosquitoes. This led to large estimated reductions in the vectorial capacity, with substantial impact even at low coverage. As the interventions aged, fewer mosquitoes were killed; however the impact of some interventions changed from killing to disarming mosquitoes. Overall, this inference method allows for additional modes of action, rather than just reduction in biting, to be parameterised and highlights the tools assessed as promising malaria interventions.

Acceptability, Feasibility, Drug Safety, and Effectiveness of a Pilot Mass Drug Administration with a Single Round of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine Plus Primaquine and Indoor Residual Spraying in Communities with Malaria Transmission in Haiti, 2018

For a malaria elimination strategy, Haiti's National Malaria Control Program piloted a mass drug administration (MDA) with indoor residual spraying (IRS) in 12 high-transmission areas across five communes after implementing community case management and strengthened surveillance. The MDA distributed sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and single low-dose primaquine to eligible residents during house visits. The IRS campaign applied pirimiphos-methyl insecticide on walls of eligible houses. Pre- and post-campaign cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess acceptability, feasibility, drug safety, and effectiveness of the combined interventions. Stated acceptability for MDA before the campaign was 99.2%; MDA coverage estimated at 10 weeks post-campaign was 89.6%. Similarly, stated acceptability of IRS at baseline was 99.9%; however, household IRS coverage was 48.9% because of the high number of ineligible houses. Effectiveness measured by Plasmodium falciparum prevalence at baseline and 10 weeks post-campaign were similar: 1.31% versus 1.43%, respectively. Prevalence of serological markers were similar at 10 weeks post-campaign compared with baseline, and increased at 6 months. No severe adverse events associated with the MDA were identified in the pilot; there were severe adverse events in a separate, subsequent campaign. Both MDA and IRS are acceptable and feasible interventions in Haiti. Although a significant impact of a single round of MDA/IRS on malaria transmission was not found using a standard pre- and post-intervention comparison, it is possible there was blunting of the peak transmission. Seasonal malaria transmission patterns, suboptimal IRS coverage, and low baseline parasitemia may have limited the effectiveness or the ability to measure effectiveness.

Impact of malaria control interventions on malaria infection and anaemia in low malaria transmission settings: a cross-sectional population-based study in Sudan

BACKGROUND

The past two decades were associated with innovation and strengthening of malaria control interventions, which have been increasingly adopted at large scale. Impact evaluations of these interventions were mostly performed in moderate or high malaria transmission areas. This study aimed to evaluate the use and performance of malaria interventions in low transmission areas on malaria infections and anaemia.

METHODS

Data from the 2016 Sudan malaria indicator survey was used. Multi-level logistic regression analysis was used to assess the strength of association between real-life community-level utilization of malaria interventions [diagnosis, artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)] and the study outcomes: malaria infections and anaemia (both overall and moderate-to-severe anaemia).

RESULTS

The study analysis involved 26,469 individuals over 242 clusters. Malaria infection rate was 7.6%, overall anaemia prevalence was 47.5% and moderate-to-severe anaemia prevalence was 4.5%. The average community-level utilization was 31.5% for malaria diagnosis, 29.9% for ACTs and 35.7% for LLINs. The odds of malaria infection was significantly reduced by 14% for each 10% increase in the utilization of malaria diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) per 10% utilization 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95, p = 0.004). However, the odds of infection was positively associated with the utilization of LLINs at community-level (aOR per 10% utilization 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29, p < 0.001). No association between malaria infection and utilization of ACTs was identified (aOR per 10% utilization 0.97, 95% CI 0.91-1.04, p = 0.413). None of the interventions was associated with overall anaemia nor moderate-to-severe anaemia.

CONCLUSION

There was strong evidence that utilization of malaria diagnosis at the community level was highly protective against malaria infection. No protective effect was seen for community utilization of ACTs or LLINs. No association was established between any of the interventions and overall anaemia or moderate-to-severe anaemia. This lack of effectiveness could be due to the low utilization of interventions or the low level of malaria transmission in the study area. Identification and response to barriers of access and low utilization of malaria interventions are crucial. It is crucial to ensure that every suspected malaria case is tested in a timely way, notably in low transmission settings.

Spatial, environmental, and individual associations with Anopheles albimanus salivary antigen IgG in Haitian children

IgG serology can be utilized to estimate exposure to Anopheline malaria vectors and the Plasmodium species they transmit. A multiplex bead-based assay simultaneously detected IgG to Anopheles albimanus salivary gland extract (SGE) and four Plasmodium falciparum antigens (CSP, LSA-1, PfAMA1, and PfMSP1) in 11,541 children enrolled at 350 schools across Haiti in 2016. Logistic regression estimated odds of an above-median anti-SGE IgG response adjusting for individual- and environmental-level covariates. Spatial analysis detected statistically significant clusters of schools with students having high anti-SGE IgG levels, and spatial interpolation estimated anti-SGE IgG levels in unsampled locations. Boys had 11% (95% CI: 0.81, 0.98) lower odds of high anti-SGE IgG compared to girls, and children seropositive for PfMSP1 had 53% (95% CI: 1.17, 2.00) higher odds compared to PfMSP1 seronegatives. Compared to the lowest elevation, quartiles 2-4 of higher elevation were associated with successively lower odds (0.81, 0.43, and 0.34, respectively) of high anti-SGE IgG. Seven significant clusters of schools were detected in Haiti, while spatially interpolated results provided a comprehensive picture of anti-SGE IgG levels in the study area. Exposure to malaria vectors by IgG serology with SGE is a proxy to approximate vector biting in children and identify risk factors for vector exposure.

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.

Evaluation of the durability and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets in Nicaragua

BACKGROUND

Vector control for malaria prevention relies most often on the use of insecticide-treated bed net (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying. Little is known about the longevity of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in the Americas. The physical integrity and insecticide retention of LLINs over time were monitored after a bed net distribution campaign to assess community practices around LLIN care and use in Waspam, northeastern Nicaragua.

METHODS

At least 30 nets were collected at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months post distribution. Physical integrity was measured by counting holes and classifying nets into categories (good, damaged, and too torn) depending on a proportionate hole index (pHI). Insecticide bioefficacy was assessed using cone bioassays, and insecticide content measured using a cyanopyrethroid field test (CFT).

RESULTS

At 6 months, 87.3 % of LLINs were in good physical condition, while by 36 months this decreased to 20.6 %, with 38.2 % considered 'too torn.' The median pHI increased from 7 at the 6-month time point to 480.5 by 36 months. After 36 months of use, median mortality in cone bioassays was 2 % (range: 0-6 %) compared to 16 % (range: 2-70 %) at 6 months. There was a decrease in the level of deltamethrin detected on the surface of the LLINs with 100 % of tested LLINs tested at 12 months and 24 months crossing the threshold for being considered a failed net by CFT.

CONCLUSIONS

This first comprehensive analysis of LLIN durability in Central America revealed rapid loss of chemical bioefficacy and progressive physical damage over a 36-month period. Use of these findings to guide future LLIN interventions in malaria elimination settings in Nicaragua, and potentially elsewhere in the Americas, could help optimize the successful implementation of vector control strategies.

Predicting the impact of outdoor vector control interventions on malaria transmission intensity from semi-field studies

BACKGROUND

Semi-field experiments with human landing catch (HLC) measure as the outcome are an important step in the development of novel vector control interventions against outdoor transmission of malaria since they provide good estimates of personal protection. However, it is often infeasible to determine whether the reduction in HLC counts is due to mosquito mortality or repellency, especially considering that spatial repellents based on volatile pyrethroids might induce both. Due to the vastly different impact of repellency and mortality on transmission, the community-level impact of spatial repellents can not be estimated from such semi-field experiments.

METHODS

We present a new stochastic model that is able to estimate for any product inhibiting outdoor biting, its repelling effect versus its killing and disarming (preventing host-seeking until the next night) effects, based only on time-stratified HLC data from controlled semi-field experiments. For parameter inference, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to account for nightly variation of semi-field experimental conditions. We estimate the impact of the products on the vectorial capacity of the given Anopheles species using an existing mathematical model. With this methodology, we analysed data from recent semi-field studies in Kenya and Tanzania on the impact of transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons, the odour-baited Suna trap and their combination (push-pull system) on HLC of Anopheles arabiensis in the peridomestic area.

RESULTS

Complementing previous analyses of personal protection, we found that the transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons act mainly by killing or disarming mosquitoes. Depending on the actual ratio of disarming versus killing, the vectorial capacity of An. arabiensis is reduced by 41 to 96% at 70% coverage with the transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and by 38 to 82% at the same coverage with the push-pull system, under the assumption of a similar impact on biting indoors compared to outdoors.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this analysis of semi-field data suggest that transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons are a promising tool against malaria transmission by An. arabiensis in the peridomestic area, since they provide both personal and community protection. Our modelling framework can estimate the community-level impact of any tool intervening during the mosquito host-seeking state using data from only semi-field experiments with time-stratified HLC.

Effects of seasonality and land use on the diversity, relative abundance, and distribution of mosquitoes on St. Kitts, West Indies

BACKGROUND

Mosquito surveys that collect local data on mosquito species' abundances provide baseline data to help understand potential host-pathogen-mosquito relationships, predict disease transmission, and target mosquito control efforts.

METHODS

We conducted an adult mosquito survey from November 2017 to March 2019 on St. Kitts, using Biogents Sentinel 2 traps, set monthly and run for 48-h intervals. We collected mosquitoes from a total of 30 sites distributed across agricultural, mangrove, rainforest, scrub and urban land covers. We investigated spatial variation in mosquito species richness across the island using a hierarchical Bayesian multi-species occupancy model. We developed a mixed effects negative binomial regression model to predict the effects of spatial variation in land cover, and seasonal variation in precipitation on observed counts of the most abundant mosquito species observed.

RESULTS

There was high variation among sites in mosquito community structure, and variation in site level richness that correlated with scrub forest, agricultural, and urban land covers. The four most abundant species were Aedes taeniorhynchus, Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegpyti and Deinocerites magnus, and their relative abundance varied with season and land cover. Aedes aegypti was the most commonly occurring mosquito on the island, with a 90% probability of occurring at between 24 and 30 (median = 26) sites. Mangroves yielded the most mosquitoes, with Ae. taeniorhynchus, Cx. quinquefasciatus and De. magnus predominating. Psorophora pygmaea and Toxorhynchites guadeloupensis were only captured in scrub habitat. Capture rates in rainforests were low. Our count models also suggested the extent to which monthly average precipitation influenced counts varied according to species.

CONCLUSIONS

There is high seasonality in mosquito abundances, and land cover influences the diversity, distribution, and relative abundance of species on St. Kitts. Further, human-adapted mosquito species (e.g. Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus) that are known vectors for many human relevant pathogens (e.g. chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses in the case of Ae. aegypti; West Nile, Spondweni, Oropouche virus, and equine encephalitic viruses in the case of Cx. quinqefasciatus) are the most wide-spread (across land covers) and the least responsive to seasonal variation in precipitation.

Attrition, physical integrity and insecticidal activity of long-lasting insecticidal nets in sub-Saharan Africa and modelling of their impact on vectorial capacity

Background

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the primary malaria prevention and control intervention in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. While LLINs are expected to last at least 3 years under normal use conditions, they can lose effectiveness because they fall out of use, are discarded, repurposed, physically damaged, or lose insecticidal activity. The contributions of these different interrelated factors to durability of nets and their protection against malaria have been unclear.

Methods

Starting in 2009, LLIN durability studies were conducted in seven countries in Africa over 5 years. WHO-recommended measures of attrition, LLIN use, insecticidal activity, and physical integrity were recorded for eight different net brands. These data were combined with analyses of experimental hut data on feeding inhibition and killing effects of LLINs on both susceptible and pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors to estimate the protection against malaria transmission—in terms of vectorial capacity (VC)—provided by each net cohort over time. Impact on VC was then compared in hypothetical scenarios where one durability outcome measure was set at the best possible level while keeping the others at the observed levels.

Results

There was more variability in decay of protection over time by country than by net brand for three measures of durability (ratios of variance components 4.6, 4.4, and 1.8 times for LLIN survival, use, and integrity, respectively). In some countries, LLIN attrition was slow, but use declined rapidly. Non-use of LLINs generally had more effect on LLIN impact on VC than did attrition, hole formation, or insecticide loss.

Conclusions

There is much more variation in LLIN durability among countries than among net brands. Low levels of use may have a larger impact on effectiveness than does variation in attrition or LLIN degradation. The estimated entomological effects of chemical decay are relatively small, with physical decay probably more important as a driver of attrition and non-use than as a direct cause of loss of effect. Efforts to maximize LLIN impact in operational settings should focus on increasing LLIN usage, including through improvements in LLIN physical integrity. Further research is needed to understand household decisions related to LLIN use, including the influence of net durability and the presence of other nets in the household.

Risk Factors for Malaria Infection and Seropositivity in the Elimination Area of Grand'Anse, Haiti: A Case-Control Study among Febrile Individuals Seeking Treatment at Public Health Facilities

The island of Hispaniola aims to eliminate malaria by 2025; however, there are limited data to describe epidemiologic risk factors for malaria in this setting. A prospective case–control study was conducted at four health facilities in southwest Haiti, aiming to describe factors influencing the risk of current and past malaria infection. Cases were defined as individuals attending facilities with current or recent fever and positive malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT), while controls were those with current or recent fever and RDT negative. Serological markers of recent and cumulative exposure to Plasmodium were assessed using the multiplex bead assay from dried blood spots and used for alternate case definitions. Kuldorff’s spatial scan statistic was used to identify local clusters of infection or exposure. Logistic regression models were used to assess potential risk factors for RDT positivity and recent exposure markers, including age-group, gender, and recruiting health facility as group-matching variables. A total of 192 cases (RDT positive) and 915 controls (RDT negative) were recruited. Consistent spatial clusters were identified for all three infection and exposure metrics, indicating temporal stability of malaria transmission at these sites. Risk factors included remoteness from health facilities and household construction, furthermore, insecticide-treated net ownership or use was associated with reduced odds of RDT positivity. These findings indicate the malaria risk in Grand’Anse is driven primarily by location. Travel, occupation, and other behavioral factors were not associated with malaria. These data can support the National Malaria Program to refine and target their intervention approaches, and to move toward elimination.