Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991-2019

Malaria treatment for prevention: a modelling study of the impact of routine case management on malaria prevalence and burden

BACKGROUND

Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.

METHODS

Leveraging the OpenMalaria stochastic agent-based transmission model, we first simulated an array of transmission intensities with baseline effective treatment coverages of 28%, 44%, and 54% incorporated to reflect the 2023 coverage distribution across Africa, as estimated by the Malaria Atlas Project. We assessed the impact of increasing coverage to as high as 60%, the highest 2023 estimate on the continent. Subsequently, we performed simulations resembling the specific subnational endemicities of Kenya, Mozambique, and Benin, using the Malaria Atlas Project estimates of intervention coverages to reproduce historical subnational prevalence. We estimated the impact of increasing effective treatment coverage in these example settings in terms of prevalence reduction and clinical cases averted in children under 5 years old and the total population.

RESULTS

The most significant prevalence reduction - up to 50% - was observed in young children from lower transmission settings (prevalence below 0.2), alongside a 35% reduction in incidence, when increasing effective treatment from 28% to 60%. A nonlinear relationship between baseline transmission intensity and the impact of treatment was observed. Increasing effective treatment coverage to 60% reduced the risk in high-risk areas (prevalence in children under 5 years old > 0.3), affecting 39% of young children in Benin and 20% in Mozambique previously living in those areas. In Kenya where most of the population lives in areas with prevalence below 0.15, and case management is fairly high (53.9%), 0.39% of children were estimated to transition to lower-risk areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving case management directly reduces the burden of illness, but these results suggest it also reduces transmission, especially for young children. With vector control interventions, enhancing case management can be an important tool for reducing transmission intensity over time.

The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments

Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression. We simulate gene drive releases in sixteen ~ 12,000 km2 areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 71.6-98.4% across areas, while impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results show that different strategies for gene drive implementation may be required across different African settings.

Effects of drug pressure and human migration on antimalarial resistance in circulating Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites in Ecuador

Antimalarial resistance in Plasmodium falciparum is a public health problem in the fight against malaria in Ecuador. Characterizing the molecular epidemiology of drug resistance genes helps to understand the emergence and spread of resistant parasites. In this study, the effects of drug pressure and human migration on antimalarial resistance in P. falciparum were evaluated. Sixty-seven samples from northwestern Ecuador from the 2019-2021 period were analyzed. SNPs in Pfcrt , Pfdhps , Pfdhfr , Pfmdr-1 , Pfk13 and Pfaat1 were identified by Sanger sequencing and whole-genome sequencing. A comparison of the frequencies of the haplotypes was made with data from the 2013-2015 period. Also, nucleotide and haplotype diversity were calculated. The frequencies of the mutant haplotypes, CVM ET in Pfcrt and C I C N I in Pfdhfr , increased. NED F S D F Y in Pfmdr-1 was detected for the first time. While the wild-type haplotypes, SAKAA in Pfdhps and MYRIC in Pfk13 , remained dominant. Interestingly, the A16 V mutation in Pfdhfr that gives resistance to proguanil is reported in Ecuador. In conclusion, parasites resistant to chloroquine ( Pfcrt ) and pyrimethamine ( Pfdhfr ) increased in recent years, while parasites sensitive to sulfadoxine ( Pfdhps ) and artemisinin ( Pfk13 ) prevail in Ecuador. Therefore, the current treatment is still useful against P. falciparum . The frequent human migration between Ecuador and Colombia has likely contributed to the spread of resistant parasites. Keys words : Plasmodium falciparum , resistance, antimalarial, selective pressure, human migration.

Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology

BACKGROUND

Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Factors influencing patients' adherence to malaria artemisinin-based combination therapy in Kamuli District, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Patients' adherence to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is a malaria control strategy. Studies report varied experiences regarding patients' adherence to ACT. The study aimed at determining factors influencing patients' adherence to ACT for malaria in Kamuli, Uganda.

METHODS

In a longitudinal study, 1266 participants at 8 public health facilities were enrolled. Equal numbers (422) were assigned to the three arms (no follow-up, day 2 and day 4). To establish the mean difference between groups, Student t-test was used and a chi-square test was used for proportionality. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish the influence of predictor variables on the dependent variable. Statistical significance was established at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 844 patients were analysed. The median age was 20 years, majority (64.3%) were females. Overall patients' adherence was 588/844 (69.7%). At bivariate level, age (t-test = 2.258, p = 0.024), household head (χ2 = 14.484, p = 0.002), employment status (χ2 = 35.886, p < 0.0001), patients' preference of ACT to other anti-malarials (χ2 = 15.981, p < 0.0001), giving a patient/caregiver instructions on how to take the medication (χ2 = 7.134, p = 0.011), being satisfied with getting ACT at facility (χ2 = 48.261, p < 0.0001), patient/caregiver knowing the drug prescribed (χ2 = 5.483, p = 0.019), patient history of saving ACT medicines (χ2 = 39.242, p < 0.0001), and patient ever shared ACT medicines (χ2 = 30.893, p < 0.0001) were all associated with patients' adherence to ACT. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that adhering to ACT is 3.063 times higher for someone satisfied with getting ACT at the facility (OR = 3.063; p < 0.0001), 4.088 times for someone with history of saving ACT medicines (OR = 4.088; p < 0.0001), 2.134 times for someone who shared ACT (OR = 2.134; p = 0.03), and 2.817 times for someone with a household head (OR = 2.817; p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Patients' adherence to ACT is generally good in the studied population. However, patients' tendencies to save ACT for future use and sharing among family members is a threat, amidst the benefits associated with adherence. There is a need to educate all about adherence to medicines as prescribed, and tighten government medicine supply chain to avoid stock-outs.

Adherence to Anti-Malarial Treatment in Malaria Endemic Areas of Bangladesh

Ensuring adherence to antimalarial treatment is crucial for achieving a radical cure and elimination of malaria, especially in hard-to-reach areas. We conducted this study to assess the current scenario of drug adherence in four endemic sub-districts of Bangladesh. Among 110 enrolled participants, 70% were mono-infected with Plasmodium falciparum and the remaining 30% with P. vivax. The overall treatment adherence frequency was 92.7% (95% CI: 83.0-96.3%). A total of eight participants were found to be nonadherent to treatment and all of them were from Bandarban. Level of nonadherence was equally observed in two age groups: 11-17 and 18+ years. However, male participants (n = 6) were found to be more nonadherent than females (n = 2). Among 7.3% with nonadherence to treatment, a single participant with P. falciparum mono-infection refused to take medication and became nonadherent. Remaining participants stated that they were feeling well and going to work, thus leaving treatment course uncompleted. Although overall compliance with malaria medication seems good, a gradual increase in noncompliance to P. vivax malaria treatment suggests that the National Malaria Elimination Program must be enhanced and monitored to fulfil the projected malaria elimination goal before 2030 from Bangladesh.

An archetypes approach to malaria intervention impact mapping: a new framework and example application

BACKGROUND

As both mechanistic and geospatial malaria modeling methods become more integrated into malaria policy decisions, there is increasing demand for strategies that combine these two methods. This paper introduces a novel archetypes-based methodology for generating high-resolution intervention impact maps based on mechanistic model simulations. An example configuration of the framework is described and explored.

METHODS

First, dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques were applied to rasterized geospatial environmental and mosquito covariates to find archetypal malaria transmission patterns. Next, mechanistic models were run on a representative site from each archetype to assess intervention impact. Finally, these mechanistic results were reprojected onto each pixel to generate full maps of intervention impact. The example configuration used ERA5 and Malaria Atlas Project covariates, singular value decomposition, k-means clustering, and the Institute for Disease Modeling's EMOD model to explore a range of three-year malaria interventions primarily focused on vector control and case management.

RESULTS

Rainfall, temperature, and mosquito abundance layers were clustered into ten transmission archetypes with distinct properties. Example intervention impact curves and maps highlighted archetype-specific variation in efficacy of vector control interventions. A sensitivity analysis showed that the procedure for selecting representative sites to simulate worked well in all but one archetype.

CONCLUSION

This paper introduces a novel methodology which combines the richness of spatiotemporal mapping with the rigor of mechanistic modeling to create a multi-purpose infrastructure for answering a broad range of important questions in the malaria policy space. It is flexible and adaptable to a range of input covariates, mechanistic models, and mapping strategies and can be adapted to the modelers' setting of choice.

Practices of herbal management of malaria among trading mothers in Shai Osudoku District, Accra

Background

Malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity in the world. It is a significant health concern in most developing countries, including Ghana. Even though there are several orthodox medications used for decades in treating malaria effectively, a substantial number of individuals in developing countries are resorting to the use of herbs in the treatment of malaria. The study aim at exploring the practices of herbal management of malaria among trading mothers in Shai Osudoku District, Accra.

Methods

A qualitative approach with an exploratory, descriptive design was adopted in analyzing the research problem. Purposive sampling technique was used to select twenty (20) participants to partake in a face-face interview, guided by a semi-structured interview guide. The data were transcribed verbatim and analysed by adopting content analysis.

Results

Two significant themes and seven subthemes were generated following the analysis of this study. The main themes were; preferences for herbal malaria treatment and the practices and effectiveness of herbal medicine used for malaria treatment. It was worth noting that the women’s cultural beliefs did not influence their preference for herbal malaria treatment. The main challenge associated with the herbal malaria treatment was inappropriate dosage specification.

Conclusion

This study discovered that several factors influenced participants’ preferences for malaria treatment. Participants further listed some traditional ways of treating malaria which implies that there is herbal malaria practice. However, literature in this area is inadequate, and most herbs lack specifications for use. It is therefore recommended that future research focus on scientific herbal malaria treatment. Also, regulating bodies should ensure that quality herbal drugs are sold for consumption.

Drug-drug Interactions of Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies in Malaria Treatment: A narrative review of the literature

Artemisinin is an antimalarial compound derived from the plant Artemisia annua L., also known as sweet wormwood. According to the World Health Organization, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is an essential treatment for malaria, specifically Plasmodium falciparum, which accounts for most of malaria related mortality. ACT used to treat uncomplicated malaria include artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. Although the mechanism of action and clinical capabilities of artemisinin in malaria treatment are widely known, more information on the potential for drug interactions needs to be further investigated. Some studies show pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic drug interactions with HIV-antiviral treatment but few studies have been conducted on most other drug classes. Based on known genotypes of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, CYP2B6 and CYP3A are primarily involved in the metabolism of artemisinin and its derivatives. Reduced functions in these enzymes can lead to subtherapeutic concentrations of the active metabolite dihydroartemisinin that may cause treatment failure which has been shown in some studies with cardiovascular, antibiotic, and antiparasitic drugs. Although the clinical importance remains unclear to date, clinicians should be aware of potential drug-drug interactions and monitor patients on ACT closely. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Therapeutic efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest burden of malaria in the world. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) have been the cornerstone in the efforts to reduce the global burden of malaria. In the effort to facilitate early detection of resistance for artemisinin derivatives and partner drugs, WHO recommends monitoring of ACT's efficacy in the malaria endemic countries. The present systematic meta-analysis study summarises the evidence of therapeutic efficacy of the commonly used artemisinin-based combinations for the treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa after more than a decade since the introduction of the drugs.

METHODS

Fifty two studies carried out from 2010 to 2020 on the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine or dihydro-artemisinin piperaquine or artesunate amodiaquine in patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa were searched for using the Google Scholar, Cochrane Central Register of controlled trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, Medline, LILACS, and EMBASE online data bases. Data was extracted by two independent reviewers. Random analysis effect was performed in STATA 13. Heterogeneity was established using I2 statistics.

RESULTS

Based on per protocol analysis, unadjusted cure rates in malaria infected patients treated with artemether-lumefantrine (ALU), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHP) were 89%, 94% and 91% respectively. However, the cure rates after PCR correction were 98% for ALU, 99% for ASAQ and 99% for DHP.

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis reports the overall high malaria treatment success for artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine above the WHO threshold value in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Effectiveness and safety of artesunate-amodiaquine versus artemether-lumefantrine for home-based treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria among children 6-120 months in Yaoundé, Cameroon: a randomized trial

Background

Many studies have reported high efficacy and safety of artesunate-amodiaquine (AS-AQ) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) when administered under direct observation in Cameroon. There is paucity of data to support their continuous use in home-based treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Cameroon. Hence, this study aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of AS-AQ versus AL for home-based treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria among children 6–120 months in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Methods

A two-arm, open-label, randomized, controlled trial comparing the equivalence of AS-AQ (experimental group) and AL (control group) was carried out from May 2019 to April 2020 at two secondary hospitals in Yaoundé. Participants were randomized to receive either AS-AQ or AL. After the first dose, antimalarial drugs were given at home, rather than under direct observation by a study staff. The conventional on-treatment and post-treatment laboratory and clinical evaluations were not done until day 3 of the full antimalarial treatment course. The evaluation of effectiveness was mainly based on per protocol polymerase chain reaction adjusted adequate clinical and parasitological response (PP PCR adjusted ACPR) on day 28 post-treatment. Safety was based on assessment of adverse events (AEs) and severe adverse events (SAEs) from day 1 to day 28.

Results

A total of 242 children were randomized to receive AS-AQ (n = 114) and AL (n = 128). The PP PCR adjusted day 28 cure rates were [AS-AQ = 96.9% (95% CI, 91.2–99.4) versus AL = 95.5% (95% CI, 89.9–98.5), P = 0.797]. Expected mild to moderate adverse events were reported in both arms [AS-AQ = 83 (84.7%) versus AL = 99 (86.1%), P = 0.774]. The most common adverse events included: transient changes of hematologic indices and fever.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that AS-AQ and AL are effective and safe for home management of malaria in Yaoundé. The evidence from this study supports the parallel use of the two drugs in routine practice. However, the findings from this study do not describe the likely duration of antimalarial effectiveness in holoendemic areas where multiple courses of treatment might be required.

Trial registration: This study is a randomized controlled trial and it was retrospectively registered on 23/09/2020 at ClinicalTrials.gov with registration number NCT04565184.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07101-2.

Resistance to Antimalarial Monotherapy Is Cyclic

Malaria is a prevalent parasitic disease that is estimated to kill between one and two million people-mostly children-every year. Here, we query PubMed for malaria drug resistance and plot the yearly citations of 14 common antimalarials. Remarkably, most antimalarial drugs display cyclic resistance patterns, rising and falling over four decades. The antimalarial drugs that exhibit cyclic resistance are quinine, chloroquine, mefloquine, amodiaquine, artesunate, artemether, sulfadoxine, doxycycline, halofantrine, piperaquine, pyrimethamine, atovaquone, artemisinin, and dihydroartemisinin. Exceptionally, the resistance of the two latter drugs can also correlate with a linear rise. Our predicted antimalarial drug resistance is consistent with clinical data reported by the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and validates our methodology. Notably, the cyclical resistance suggests that most antimalarial drugs are sustainable in the end. Furthermore, cyclic resistance is clinically relevant and discourages routine monotherapy, in particular, while resistance is on the rise. Finally, cyclic resistance encourages the combination of antimalarial drugs at distinct phases of resistance.

Molecular identification and anti-malarial drug resistance profile of Plasmodium falciparum from patients attending Kisoro Hospital, southwestern Uganda

Background

The evolution of malaria infection has necessitated the development of highly sensitive diagnostic assays, as well as the use of dried blood spots (DBS) as a potential source of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) yield for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. This study identified the different Plasmodium species in malaria-positive patients, and the anti-malarial drug resistance profile for Plasmodium falciparum using DBS samples collected from patients attending Kisoro Hospital in Kisoro district, Southwestern Uganda.

Methods

The blood samples were prospectively collected from patients diagnosed with malaria to make DBS, which were then used to extract DNA for real-time PCR and high-resolution melting (HRM) analysis. Plasmodium species were identified by comparing the control and test samples using HRM-PCR derivative curves. Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine (CQ) resistance transporter (pfcrt) and kelch13 to screen the samples for anti-malarial resistance markers. The HRM-PCR derivative curve was used to present a summary distribution of the different Plasmodium species as well as the anti-malarial drug profile.

Results

Of the 152 participants sampled, 98 (64.5%) were females. The average age of the participants was 34.9 years (range: 2 months–81 years). There were 134 samples that showed PCR amplification, confirming the species as Plasmodium. Plasmodium falciparum (N = 122), Plasmodium malariae (N = 6), Plasmodium ovale (N = 4), and Plasmodium vivax (N = 2) were the various Plasmodium species and their proportions. The results showed that 87 (71.3%) of the samples were sensitive strains/wild type (CVMNK), 4 (3.3%) were resistant haplotypes (SVMNT), and 31 (25.4%) were resistant haplotypes (CVIET). Kelch13 C580Y mutation was not detected.

Conclusion

The community served by Kisoro hospital has a high Plasmodium species burden, according to this study. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species, and it has shown that resistance to chloroquine is decreasing in the region. Based on this, molecular identification of Plasmodium species is critical for better clinical management. Besides, DBS is an appropriate medium for DNA preservation and storage for future epidemiological studies.

Current and emerging strategies to combat antimalarial resistance

INTRODUCTION

Since the spread of chloroquine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum in the 1960s, recommendations have been made on how to respond to antimalarial resistance. Only with the advent of artemisinin partial resistance were large scale efforts made in the Greater Mekong Subregion to carry out recommendations in a coordinated and well-funded manner. Independent emergence of parasites partially resistant to artemisinins has now been reported in Rwanda.

AREAS COVERED

We reviewed past recommendations and activities to respond to resistance as well as the research ongoing into new ways to stop or delay the spread of resistant parasites.

EXPERT OPINION

Inadequate information limits the options and support for a strong, coordinated response to artemisinin partial resistance in Africa, making better phenotypic and genotypic surveillance a priority. A response to resistance needs to address factors that may have hastened the emergence and could speed the spread, including overuse of drugs and lack of access to quality treatment. New ways to use the existing treatments in the response to resistance such as multiple first-lines are currently impeded by the limited number of drugs available.

Mapping partner drug resistance to guide antimalarial combination therapy policies in sub-Saharan Africa

Resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) threatens the global control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. ACTs combine artemisinin-derived compounds with partner drugs to enable multiple mechanisms of clearance. Although ACTs remain widely effective in sub-Saharan Africa, long-standing circulation of parasite alleles associated with reduced partner drug susceptibility may contribute to the development of clinical resistance. We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model to data from over 500 molecular surveys to predict the prevalence and frequency of four key markers in transporter genes (pfcrt 76T and pfmdr1 86Y, 184F, and 1246Y) in first-level administrative divisions in sub-Saharan Africa from the uptake of ACTs (2004 to 2009) to their widespread usage (2010 to 2018). Our models estimated that the pfcrt 76T mutation decreased in prevalence in 90% of regions; the pfmdr1 N86 and D1246 wild-type genotypes increased in prevalence in 96% and 82% of regions, respectively; and there was no significant directional selection at the pfmdr1 Y184F locus. Rainfall seasonality was the strongest predictor of the prevalence of wild-type genotypes, with other covariates, including first-line drug policy and transmission intensity more weakly associated. We lastly identified regions of high priority for enhanced surveillance that could signify decreased susceptibility to the local first-line ACT. Our results can be used to infer the degree of molecular resistance and magnitude of wild-type reversion in regions without survey data to inform therapeutic policy decisions.