Beyond national indicators: adapting the Demographic and Health Surveys' sampling strategies and questions to better inform subnational malaria intervention policy

Population Genomics of Plasmodium malariae from Four African Countries

Plasmodium malariae is geographically widespread but neglected and may become more prevalent as P. falciparum declines. We completed the largest genomic study of African P. malariae to-date by performing hybrid capture and sequencing of 77 isolates from Cameroon (n=7), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (n=16), Nigeria (n=4), and Tanzania (n=50) collected between 2015 and 2021. There is no evidence of geographic population structure. Nucleotide diversity was significantly lower than in co-localized P. falciparum isolates, while linkage disequilibrium was significantly higher. Genome-wide selection scans identified no erythrocyte invasion ligands or antimalarial resistance orthologs as top hits; however, targeted analyses of these loci revealed evidence of selective sweeps around four erythrocyte invasion ligands and six antimalarial resistance orthologs. Demographic inference modeling suggests that African P. malariae is recovering from a bottleneck. Altogether, these results suggest that P. malariae is genomically atypical among human Plasmodium spp. and panmictic in Africa.

Red blood cell dynamics during malaria infection challenge the assumptions of mathematical models of infection dynamics

For decades, mathematical models have been used to understand the course and outcome of malaria infections (i.e., infection dynamics) and the evolutionary dynamics of the parasites that cause them. A key conclusion of these models is that red blood cell (RBC) availability is a fundamental driver of infection dynamics and parasite trait evolution. The extent to which this conclusion holds will in part depend on model assumptions about the host-mediated processes that regulate RBC availability i.e., removal of uninfected RBCs and supply of RBCs. Diverse mathematical functions have been used to describe host-mediated RBC supply and clearance, but it remains unclear whether they adequately capture the dynamics of RBC supply and clearance during infection. Here, we use a unique dataset, comprising time-series measurements of erythrocyte (i.e., mature RBC) and reticulocyte (i.e., newly supplied RBC) densities during Plasmodium chabaudi malaria infection, and a quantitative data-transformation scheme to elucidate whether RBC dynamics conform to common model assumptions. We found that RBC clearance and supply are not well described by mathematical functions commonly used to model these processes. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of both processes vary with parasite growth rate in a manner again not captured by existing models. Together, these finding suggest that new model formulations are required if we are to explain and ultimately predict the within-host population dynamics and evolution of malaria parasites.

Community perspective and healthcare assessment in malaria endemic states of India: a cross-sectional study protocol

INTRODUCTION

India's contribution to the malaria burden was highest in South-East Asia Region in 2021, accounting for 79% of the estimated malaria cases and 83% of malaria-related deaths. Intensified Malaria Control Programme supported by Global Funds to Fight against AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has deployed crucial interventions to reduce the overall burden of malaria in India. Evaluation of utilisation of malaria elimination interventions by the community and assessment of the healthcare system is underway in eleven high malaria endemic states in India. Health system preparedness for malaria elimination, logistics, and supply chain management of diagnostic kits and anti-malarial drugs in addition to the knowledge, attitude and practice of the healthcare workers is also being assessed.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is being undertaken in 11 malaria endemic states with a variable annual parasite incidence of malaria. In total, 47 districts (administrative unit of malaria control operations) covering 37 976 households are to be interviewed and assessed. We present here the protocol following which the study is being undertaken at the behest and approval of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in India.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No patients were involved in the study. Study findings will be shared with Institutional ethics board of National Institute for Malaria Research New Delhi (NIMR) in a timely, comprehensive, accurate, unbiased, unambiguous and transparent manner and to the National Vector-borne Disease (Malaria) Control Programme officers and the Community public who participated. Important findings will be communicated through community outreach meetings which are existing in the Health system. Results will be informed to study participants via local fieldwork supervised by District Malaria Officers. Also findings will be published in reputed journals based on Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) publication policy.The ICMR-NIMR ethics committee approved the study via letter No. NIMR/ECM/2023/Feb/14 dated 24 April 2023 for version 5. All standard ethical practices will be followed.

High-Throughput Genotyping of Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon via Molecular Inversion Probes

Plasmodium vivax transmission occurs throughout the tropics and is an emerging threat in areas of Plasmodium falciparum decline, causing relapse infections that complicate treatment and control. Targeted sequencing for P. falciparum has been widely deployed to detect population structure and the geographic spread of antimalarial and diagnostic resistance. However, there are fewer such tools for P. vivax . Leveraging global variation data, we designed four molecular inversion probe (MIP) genotyping panels targeting geographically differentiating SNPs, neutral SNPs, putative antimalarial resistance genes, and vaccine candidate genes. We deployed these MIP panels on 866 infections from the Peruvian Amazon and identified transmission networks with clonality (IBD>0.99), copy number variation in Pvdbp and multiple Pvrbps , fixation of putative antimalarial resistance, and balancing selection in 13 vaccine candidate genes. Our MIP panels are the broadest genotyping panel currently available and are poised for successful deployment in other regions of P. vivax transmission.

Malaria in under-five children: prevalence and multi-factor analysis of high-risk African countries

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a significant public health challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly affecting under-five (UN5) children. Despite global efforts to control the disease, its prevalence in high-risk African countries continues to be alarming, with records of substantial morbidity and mortality rates. Understanding the association of multiple childhood, maternal, and household factors with malaria prevalence, especially among vulnerable young populations, is crucial for effective intervention strategies.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the prevalence of malaria among UN5 children in selected high-risk SSA countries and analyzes its association with various childhood, maternal, and household factors.

METHODS

Data from the Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) spanning from 2010 to 2023 were analyzed. A weighted sample of 35,624 UN5 children from seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) known for high malaria prevalence was considered in the analyses. Descriptive statistics and modified Poisson regression analysis were used to assess the association of multiple factors with malaria prevalence. Stata version 15 software was used in analyzing the data and statistical significance was set at a 5% significance level.

RESULTS

The overall pooled prevalence of malaria among the studied population was 26.2%, with substantial country-specific variations observed. In terms of child factors, a child's age was significantly associated with malaria prevalence (APR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.007-1.012). Children of mothers with higher education levels (APR for higher education = 0.586, 95% CI: 0.425-0.806) and Fansidar uptake during pregnancy (APR = 0.731, 95% CI: 0.666-0.802) were associated with lower malaria risk. Children from middle-wealth (APR = 0.783, 95% CI: 0.706-0.869) and rich (APR = 0.499, 95% CI: 0.426-0.584) households had considerably lower malaria prevalence compared to those from poor households. Additionally, rural residency was associated with a higher risk of malaria compared to urban residency (APR = 1.545, 95% CI: 1.255-1.903).

CONCLUSION

The study highlights a notable malaria prevalence among under-five (UN5) children in high-risk SSA countries, influenced significantly by factors such as maternal education, Fansidar uptake during pregnancy, socioeconomic status, and residency. These findings underscore the importance of targeted malaria prevention strategies that address these key determinants to effectively reduce the malaria burden in this vulnerable population.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for infection among children in Uganda: a serial cross-sectional study

Background

Understanding COVID-19's impact on children is vital for public health policy, yet age-specific data is scarce, especially in Uganda. This study examines SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and risk factors among Ugandan children at two timepoints, along with COVID-19-related knowledge and practices in households, including adult vaccination status.

Methods

Baseline surveys were conducted in 12 communities from April to May 2021 (post-Alpha wave) and follow-up surveys in 32 communities from November 2021 to March 2022 (Omicron wave). Household questionnaires and blood samples were collected to test for malaria by microscopy and for SARS-CoV-2 using a Luminex assay. Seroprevalence was estimated at both the survey and community level. Mixed-effects logistic regression models assessed the association between individual and household factors and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in children, adjusting for household clustering.

Results

More households reported disruptions in daily life at baseline compared to follow-up, though economic impacts lingered. By the follow-up survey, 52.7% of adults had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Overall seroprevalence in children was higher at follow-up compared to baseline (71.6% versus 19.2%, p < 0.001). Seroprevalence in children ranged across communities from 6-37% at baseline and 50-90% at follow-up. At baseline, children from the poorest households were more likely to be infected. Increasing age remained the only consistent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion at both timepoints.

Conclusions

Results indicate that a larger number of children were infected by the Delta and Omicron waves of COVID-19 compared to the Alpha wave. This study is the largest seroprevalence survey in children in Uganda, providing evidence that most children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the vaccine was widely available to pediatric populations. Pediatric infections were vastly underreported by case counts, highlighting the importance of seroprevalence surveys in assessing disease burden when testing and reporting rates are limited and many cases are mild or asymptomatic.

Evidence of artemisinin partial resistance in North-western Tanzania: clinical and drug resistance markers study

Background

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the recommended antimalarial drugs for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. The recent emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Rwanda, Uganda and Eritrea is of great concern. In Tanzania, a nationwide molecular malaria surveillance in 2021 showed a high prevalence of the Kelch13 (K13) 561H mutation in Plasmodium falciparum from the north-western region, close to the border with Rwanda and Uganda. This study was conducted in 2022 to evaluate the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria and to confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania.

Methods

This single-arm study evaluated the efficacy of AL and ASAQ in eligible children aged six months to 10 years at Bukangara Dispensary in Karagwe District, Kagera Region. Clinical and parasitological responses were monitored for 28 days according to standard WHO protocol. Mutations in K13 gene and extended haplotypes with these mutations were analysed using Sanger and whole genome sequencing data, respectively.

Findings

176 children (88 in each AL and ASAQ group) were enrolled and all achieved the defined outcomes. PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) was 98.3% (95% CI: 90.8-100) and 100.0% (95% CI: 95.8-100) for AL and ASAQ, respectively. Parasitaemia on day 3 was observed in 11/88 (12.5%) and 17/88 (19.3%) in the AL and ASAQ groups, respectively. The half-life of parasitaemia was significantly higher (>6.5 hrs) in patients with parasitaemia on day 3 and/or mutations in K13 gene at enrolment. Most patients with parasitaemia on day 3 (8/11 = 72.7% in the AL group and 10/17 = 58.8% in the ASAQ group) had 561H mutation at enrolment. The parasites with K13 mutations were not similar to those from south-east Asia and Rwanda, but had the same core haplotype of a new 561H haplotype reported in Kagera in 2021.

Interpretation

These findings confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania. A context-specific strategy to respond to artemisinin partial resistance is urgently needed. Although both AL and ASAQ showed high efficacy, increased vigilance for reduced efficacy of these ACTs and detection of ART-R in other parts of the country is critical.

Longitudinal changes in iron homeostasis in human experimental and clinical malaria

Background

The interaction between iron deficiency and malaria is incompletely understood. We evaluated longitudinal changes in iron homeostasis in volunteers enrolled in malaria volunteer infection studies (VIS) and in Malaysian patients with falciparum and vivax malaria.

Methods

We retrieved samples and associated data from 55 participants enrolled in malaria VIS, and 171 malaria patients and 30 healthy controls enrolled in clinical studies in Malaysia. Ferritin, hepcidin, erythropoietin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) were measured by ELISA.

Results

In the VIS, participants' parasitaemia was correlated with baseline mean corpuscular volume (MCV), but not iron status (ferritin, hepcidin or sTfR). Ferritin, hepcidin and sTfR all increased during the VIS. Ferritin and hepcidin normalised by day 28, while sTfR remained elevated. In VIS participants, baseline iron status (ferritin) was associated with post-treatment increases in liver transaminase levels. In Malaysian malaria patients, hepcidin and ferritin were elevated on admission compared to healthy controls, while sTfR increased following admission. Hepcidin normalised by day 28; however, ferritin and sTfR both remained elevated 4 weeks following admission.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate that parasitaemia is associated with an individual's MCV rather than iron status. The persistent elevation in sTfR 4 weeks post-infection in both malaria VIS and clinical malaria may reflect a causal link between malaria and iron deficiency.

First detection of Anopheles stephensi in Ghana using molecular surveillance

The invasive Anopheles stephensi mosquito has been rapidly expanding in range in Africa over the last decade, spreading from the Indian sub-continent to several East African countries (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia and Kenya) and now in West Africa, Nigeria. The rapid expansion of this invasive vector poses a major threat to current malaria control and elimination efforts. In line with the WHO's strategy to stop the spread of this invasive species by enhancing surveillance and control measures in Africa, we incorporated morphological and molecular surveillance of An. stephensi into routine entomological surveillance of malaria vectors in the city of Accra, Ghana. Here, we report on the first detection of An. stephensi in Ghana. An. stephensi mosquitoes were confirmed using PCR and sequencing of the ITS2 regions. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased surveillance and response strategies to mitigate the spread of An. stephensi in Ghana.

Spatial Optimization Methods for Malaria Risk Mapping in Sub-Saharan African Cities Using Demographic and Health Surveys

Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, are affected by the rapid urban growth and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this context, intra-urban malaria risk maps act as a key decision-making tool for targeting malaria control interventions, especially in resource-limited settings. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide a consistent malaria data source for mapping malaria risk at the national scale, but their use is limited at the intra-urban scale because survey cluster coordinates are randomly displaced for ethical reasons. In this research, we focus on predicting intra-urban malaria risk in SSA cities-Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Kampala and Ouagadougou-and investigate the use of spatial optimization methods to overcome the effect of DHS spatial displacement. We modeled malaria risk using a random forest regressor and remotely sensed covariates depicting the urban climate, the land cover and the land use, and we tested several spatial optimization approaches. The use of spatial optimization mitigated the effects of DHS spatial displacement on predictive performance. However, this comes at a higher computational cost, and the percentage of variance explained in our models remained low (around 30%-40%), which suggests that these methods cannot entirely overcome the limited quality of epidemiological data. Building on our results, we highlight potential adaptations to the DHS sampling strategy that would make them more reliable for predicting malaria risk at the intra-urban scale.

Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

For their 2021-2025 National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP), Nigeria's National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP), in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed a targeted approach to intervention deployment at the local government area (LGA) level as part of the High Burden to High Impact response. Mathematical models of malaria transmission were used to predict the impact of proposed intervention strategies on malaria burden.

METHODS

An agent-based model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission was used to simulate malaria morbidity and mortality in Nigeria's 774 LGAs under four possible intervention strategies from 2020 to 2030. The scenarios represented the previously implemented plan (business-as-usual), the NMSP at an 80% or higher coverage level and two prioritized plans according to the resources available to Nigeria. LGAs were clustered into 22 epidemiological archetypes using monthly rainfall, temperature suitability index, vector abundance, pre-2010 parasite prevalence, and pre-2010 vector control coverage. Routine incidence data were used to parameterize seasonality in each archetype. Each LGA's baseline malaria transmission intensity was calibrated to parasite prevalence in children under the age of five years measured in the 2010 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). Intervention coverage in the 2010-2019 period was obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey, MIS, the NMEP, and post-campaign surveys.

RESULTS

Pursuing a business-as-usual strategy was projected to result in a 5% and 9% increase in malaria incidence in 2025 and 2030 compared with 2020, while deaths were projected to remain unchanged by 2030. The greatest intervention impact was associated with the NMSP scenario with 80% or greater coverage of standard interventions coupled with intermittent preventive treatment in infants and extension of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to 404 LGAs, compared to 80 LGAs in 2019. The budget-prioritized scenario with SMC expansion to 310 LGAs, high bed net coverage with new formulations, and increase in effective case management rate at the same pace as historical levels was adopted as an adequate alternative for the resources available.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamical models can be applied for relative assessment of the impact of intervention scenarios but improved subnational data collection systems are required to allow increased confidence in predictions at sub-national level.

Two decades of molecular surveillance in Senegal reveal changes in known drug resistance mutations associated with historical drug use and seasonal malaria chemoprevention

Drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum is a major threat to malaria control efforts. We analyzed data from two decades (2000-2020) of continuous molecular surveillance of P. falciparum parasite strains in Senegal to determine how historical changes in drug administration policy may have affected parasite evolution. We profiled several known drug resistance markers and their surrounding haplotypes using a combination of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular surveillance and whole-genome sequence (WGS) based population genomics. We observed rapid changes in drug resistance markers associated with the withdrawal of chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in 2003. We also observed a rapid increase in Pfcrt K76T and decline in Pfdhps A437G starting in 2014, which we hypothesize may reflect changes in resistance or fitness caused by seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Parasite populations evolve rapidly in response to drug use, and SMC preventive efficacy should be closely monitored.

Exploring computer-aided health decision-making on cervical cancer interventions through deliberative interviews in Ethiopia

Cervical cancer is a significant disease burden in Ethiopia. Mathematical models and computer simulations on disease dynamics can support effective resource allocation. The objectives of this work are (i) to explore the perspectives of health decision-makers on computer-aided predictions supporting cervical cancer interventions, (ii) to identify their information needs from these predictions, and (iii) their willingness to apply the results in their work. We conducted deliberative interviews with 15 health decision-makers and advisors in Ethiopia in autumn 2019. We analyze the data using a five steps framework approach drawing on thematic analysis and find that Ethiopian health decision-makers are willing to use computer-aided predictions in their decisions. Data on HPV prevalence and the cervical cancer burden are scarce but valued highly and decision-makers are particularly interested in the identification of local HPV hotspots. Data-driven mathematical models and computer simulations may increasingly influence health decision-making in Ethiopia.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar, 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Despite high coverage of malaria interventions, malaria elimination in Zanzibar remains elusive, with the annual number of cases increasing gradually over the last 3 years.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of the study were to (1) assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar between 2015 and 2020 and (2) identify malaria hotspots that would allow Zanzibar to develop an epidemiological stratification for more effective and granular intervention targeting.

METHODS

In this study, we analysed data routinely collected by Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification (MCN) system. The system collects sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all malaria cases. Cases are passively detected at health facilities (ie, primary index cases) and through case follow-up and reactive case detection (ie, secondary cases). Analyses were performed to identify the spatial heterogeneity of case reporting at shehia (ward) level during transmission seasons.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2015 to 30 April 2020, the MCN system reported 22 686 index cases. Number of cases reported showed a declining trends from 2015 to 2016, followed by an increase from 2017 to 2020. More than 40% of cases had a travel history outside Zanzibar in the month prior to testing positive for malaria. The proportion of followed up index cases was approximately 70% for all years. Out of 387 shehias, 79 (20.4%) were identified as malaria hotspots in any given year; these hotspots reported 52% of all index cases during the study period. Of the 79 hotspot shehias, 12 were hotspots in more than 4 years, that is, considered temporally stable, reporting 14.5% of all index cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm that the scale-up of malaria interventions has greatly reduced malaria transmission in Zanzibar since 2006. Analyses identified hotspots, some of which were stable across multiple years. Malaria efforts should progress from a universal intervention coverage approach to an approach that is more tailored to a select number of hotspot shehias.

Creating interventions to transition long-lasting insecticide net distribution in Ghana

OBJECTIVE

Mass long-lasting insecticide net (LLIN) distribution campaigns are rolled out, as a part of the Ghana Malaria Strategic plan (2021-2025) which seeks to protect at least 80% of the population at risk with effective malaria prevention interventions. Although the mass LLIN distribution campaign indicates a comprehensive stakeholder engagement approach, it does not systematically transition into the basic primary healthcare structures within the Ghana Health Services. This paper presents the process and outcome of creating an innovative social intervention, which focuses on community mobilisation and capacity building of community health officers.

METHODS

This study employed a concurrent triangulation mixed methods approach conducted across six districts in Eastern and Volta regions, Ghana. Findings were synthesised, grouped and further distilled to guide the participatory cocreation workshops. Cocreation involved participatory learning in action technique which is a practical, adaptive research strategy which enabled diverse groups and individuals to learn, work and act together in a cooperative manner.

RESULTS

The results suggest the establishment of a Community Health Advocacy Team (CHAT). This would be necessary in efforts aimed at transitioning LLIN distribution campaign in communities. The role of the CHAT would be centred on key elements of community/social mobilisation and capacity building, all nested in a social and behaviour change communication strategies.

CONCLUSION

The research team is in the process of assessing the acceptability and feasibility of the CHAT intervention with all stakeholders in the various communities. Assessment of the effectiveness of the CHAT intervention would be done at a later time.