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Zhao H, He L, Liu C, Shan X, Gui C, Zhang L, Yu Y, Xiao Y, Xue J, Zhang K, Luo B. Self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from the global burden of disease study 2019: A 30-year assessment. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 243:117826. [PMID: 38081341 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2023] [Revised: 08/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/06/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The impact of global warming on health due to climate change is increasingly studied, but the global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature is still limited. This study aimed to systematically assess the burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature globally or by region and climate zone from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We obtained the global, regional, and national deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature was estimated by age, sex, climate zone, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and the healthcare access and quality index (HAQ). Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in ASMR and ASDR were calculated for 1990-2019 using the Joinpoint model. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the global deaths and DALYs related to self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature increased from 20,002 (95% UI, 9243 to 41,928) and 1,107,216 (95% UI, 512,062 to 2,319,477) to 26,459 (95% UI, 13,574 to 47,265) and 1,382,487 (95% UI, 722,060 to 2,474,441), respectively. However, the ASMR and ASDR showed varying degrees of decreasing trends, with decreases of 13.36% and 12.66%, respectively. The ASMR was high and declining in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, SDI and HAQ index were negatively correlated with ASMR in 204 countries and regions. CONCLUSIONS The global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributed to high temperature has decreased over the past 30 years, but the number of deaths and DALYs continues to rise. Climate change continues to make heat stress a significant risk factor for self-harm and interpersonal violence worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Zhao
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Li He
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Ce Liu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaobing Shan
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Chunyan Gui
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Ling Zhang
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Yunhui Yu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Ya Xiao
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Jia Xue
- Factor Inwentash School of Social Work, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5S 1V4, Canada
| | - Kai Zhang
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, 12144, USA.
| | - Bin Luo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 200030, People's Republic of China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, 200030, People's Republic of China.
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Martinson E, Chang HH, D’Souza RR, Ebelt S, Scovronick N. Association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States, 2015-2021. Environ Epidemiol 2023; 7:e267. [PMID: 38912390 PMCID: PMC11189680 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Here, we investigate the association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States between 2015 and 2021. Methods We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study. Data on fatal police shootings were from the Washington Post's Fatal Force database and temperature data were from Daymet. Results A 5°C increase in maximum same-day temperature was associated with a 1.033 (95% CI = 1.002, 1.065) increased odds of a fatal police shooting. In stratified analyses, the strongest associations were observed in victims who were armed (OR, 1.052 [95% CI = 1.017, 1.088), White (OR, 1.052 [95% CI = 1.006, 1.100), or aged 45+ (OR, 1.110 [95% CI = 1.044, 1.181]). In additional subgroup analyses, relative risks were also generally higher among those who were armed. Conclusions There is evidence of an association between outdoor temperature and fatal police shootings in the United States, particularly when the victims were reported as armed. This study cannot determine if the associations are a result of any specific causes (e.g., increased police aggression or other factors).
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen Martinson
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Howard H. Chang
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Rohan R. D’Souza
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Stefanie Ebelt
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
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Rahman MM, Lorenzo M, Ban-Weiss G, Hasan Z, Azzouz M, Eckel SP, Conti DV, Lurmann F, Schlaerth H, Johnston J, Ko J, Palinkas L, Hurlburt M, Silva S, Gauderman WJ, McConnell R, Garcia E. Ambient temperature and air pollution associations with suicide and homicide mortality in California: A statewide case-crossover study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 874:162462. [PMID: 36858215 PMCID: PMC10465171 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Revised: 02/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Higher ambient temperature and air pollution may contribute to increased risk of behaviors harmful to oneself or to others; however, quantitative evidence is limited. We examined the relationship of deaths due to suicide and homicide with temperature and air pollution in California-a state prone to high levels of both exposures. METHOD California death certificates from 2014 to 2019 were used to identify deaths due to suicide and homicide. Residential data for decedents were used to assign exposure to daily temperature (maximum[Tmax], minimum[Tmin]) and daily average air pollution concentrations (particulate matter <10 μm[PM10] and < 2.5 μm[PM2.5], nitrogen dioxide[NO2], ozone[O3]). Tmin served as a surrogate for nighttime temperature. A time-stratified case-crossover study design using conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of daily exposure to temperature and air pollutants on suicide and homicide mortality, adjusting for relative humidity. Effect modification by sex and age was assessed. RESULTS We observed 24,387 deaths due to suicide and 10,767 deaths due to homicide. We found a monotonic temperature association for both outcomes. A 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-2 and Tmin at lag-0 was associated with 3.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 %-5.2 %) and 3.8 % (95%CI: 0.9 %-6.8 %) increased odds of death due to suicide, respectively. The increased odds of homicide mortality per 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-0 and Tmin at lag-1 were 4.9 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-8.1 %) and 6.2 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-11.0 %), respectively. No air pollutant associations were statistically significant. Temperature associations were robust after adjustment for PM2.5. Some temperature effects were larger among women for suicide and men for homicide mortality, and among those over age 65 years for both outcomes. CONCLUSION Risk of suicide and homicide mortality increases with increasing daily ambient temperatures. Findings have public health relevance given anticipated increases in temperatures due to global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Mostafijur Rahman
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Melissa Lorenzo
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - George Ban-Weiss
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Zainab Hasan
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Mehjar Azzouz
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Sandrah P Eckel
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - David V Conti
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | | | - Hannah Schlaerth
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Jill Johnston
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Joseph Ko
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Lawrence Palinkas
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Suzanne Dworak Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Michael Hurlburt
- Suzanne Dworak Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Sam Silva
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - W James Gauderman
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Rob McConnell
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Erika Garcia
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
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Hou K, Zhang L, Xu X, Yang F, Chen B, Hu W, Shu R. High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:158846. [PMID: 36122719 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Revised: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Urban crime (UC) seriously affects the security and stability of the communities and society. However, the effects of external temperatures on the risk of UC are still confusing. We quantitatively estimated the effects of high and low temperatures on UC in Chicago. After controlling for the confounding factors, we found that high temperature has a positive promoting effect on UC, for non-domestic crime, the effect occurs at lag day 0 with a maximum risk of 1.40 (95%CI, 1.34-1.46) compared to a risk of 1 at temperature of -12.3 °C, and decreased as the lag day increased. The effect of low temperature is not significant for UC. Heat waves above the 99th percentile with a duration of 4.5-5.5 days exert a significant positive impact on non-domestic crime of UC. Our findings confirm the adverse promotion effect of high temperature on UC risk, and effective individual behavior guidance and administrative intervention are of great significance for reducing the risk of UC under specific high temperature environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kun Hou
- School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
| | - Liqiang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Xia Xu
- Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Feng Yang
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Baozhang Chen
- School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Wei Hu
- College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang, China
| | - Rui Shu
- School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
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5
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Le VTH, Berman JD, Tran QA, Wattenberg EV, Alexander BH. The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013-2019). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:13906. [PMID: 36360786 PMCID: PMC9657037 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192113906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Revised: 10/17/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vu Thuy Huong Le
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam
| | - Jesse D. Berman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
| | - Quynh Anh Tran
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam
| | - Elizabeth V. Wattenberg
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
| | - Bruce H. Alexander
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
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Palinkas LA, Hurlburt MS, Fernandez C, De Leon J, Yu K, Salinas E, Garcia E, Johnston J, Rahman MM, Silva SJ, McConnell RS. Vulnerable, Resilient, or Both? A Qualitative Study of Adaptation Resources and Behaviors to Heat Waves and Health Outcomes of Low-Income Residents of Urban Heat Islands. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:11090. [PMID: 36078804 PMCID: PMC9517765 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191711090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 08/19/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Little is known of how low-income residents of urban heat islands engage their knowledge, attitudes, behaviors, and resources to mitigate the health impacts of heat waves. In this qualitative study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 adults in two such neighborhoods in Los Angeles California to explore their adaptation resources and behaviors, the impacts of heat waves on physical and mental health, and threat assessments of future heat waves. Eighty percent of participants received advanced warning of heat waves from television news and social media. The most common resource was air conditioning (AC) units or fans. However, one-third of participants lacked AC, and many of those with AC engaged in limited use due primarily to the high cost of electricity. Adaptation behaviors include staying hydrated, remaining indoors or going to cooler locations, reducing energy usage, and consuming certain foods and drinks. Most of the participants reported some physical or mental health problem or symptom during heat waves, suggesting vulnerability to heat waves. Almost all participants asserted that heat waves were likely to increase in frequency and intensity with adverse health effects for vulnerable populations. Despite limited resources, low-income residents of urban heat islands utilize a wide range of behaviors to minimize the severity of health impacts, suggesting they are both vulnerable and resilient to heat waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lawrence A. Palinkas
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Michael S. Hurlburt
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Cecilia Fernandez
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Jessenia De Leon
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Kexin Yu
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Erika Salinas
- Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Erika Garcia
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Jill Johnston
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Md. Mostafijur Rahman
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - Sam J. Silva
- Department of Earth Sciences, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA
| | - Rob S. McConnell
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
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7
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Potgieter A, Fabris-Rotelli IN, Breetzke G, Wright CY. The association between weather and crime in a township setting in South Africa. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:865-874. [PMID: 35061073 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02242-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2021] [Revised: 11/22/2021] [Accepted: 01/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The association between various meteorological parameters and crime is well-established in developed contexts. In contrast in this study, we investigated the association between three weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and three categories of crime in the developing township of Khayelitsha, in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Distributed lag non-linear modelling was used to identify temporal relationships between temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and violent, property and sexual crime over a 10-year period (2006-2016). We found hot days (defined as [Formula: see text] 25 °C) increased the cumulative relative risk of violent crime by up to 32% but were also found to be associated with a lagged increase in violent crime for at least a week thereafter. On very cold days (defined as [Formula: see text]), the cumulative relative risk of property crime increased by up to 50% whereas on very rainy days (defined as [Formula: see text]) the risk of property crime surprisingly increased by 40%. These findings provide some additional evidence for the relationship between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour in a developing context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arminn Potgieter
- Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | - Gregory Breetzke
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.
| | - Caradee Y Wright
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa
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Berman JD, Bayham J, Burkhardt J. Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 U.S. counties. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110181. [PMID: 32971077 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2020] [Revised: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Violent behavior is influenced by individual and societal characteristics, but the role of environmental factors is less understood. Our aims were to use national-level data to identify the association between criminal behavior and short-term temperature conditions, including the departure of daily temperatures from normal conditions. METHODS We conducted a multi-stage hierarchical time-series model across 436 U.S. counties and 14-years representing 100.4 million people to investigate the association between daily mean temperature and daily mean temperatures departing from normal conditions with violent and non-violent crime counts. First-stage comparisons were made within counties to control for population and geographic heterogeneities, while a second stage combined estimates. We evaluated differences in risk based on county sociodemographic characteristics and estimated non-linear exposure-response relationships. RESULTS We observed a total of 9.0 million violent crimes and 20.9 million non-violent property crimes between 2000 through 2013. We estimated that each 10 °C increase in daily temperature or daily departure from long-term normal temperatures were associated with 11.92% (95% PI: 11.57, 12.27) and 10.37% (95% PI: 10.05, 10.69) increase in the risk of violent crime, respectively. Similar, but lower in magnitude trends, were observed for property crime risks. We found that crime risk plateaus and decreases at high daily temperatures, but for temperatures departing from normal, the association with crime increased linearly. Seasonal variations showed that anomalously warm temperatures days during cool months had the greatest risk. CONCLUSIONS Our study revealed an association between higher temperatures and high departure from normal temperatures with both violent and non-violent crime risk, regardless of community-type. However, our findings on seasonal and daily trends suggest that daily mean temperature may impact crime by affecting routine activities and behavior, as opposed to a temperature-aggression relationship. These results may advance public response and planning to prevent violent behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- J D Berman
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
| | - J Bayham
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - J Burkhardt
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
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9
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Frumkin H, Das MB, Negev M, Rogers BC, Bertollini R, Dora C, Desai S. Protecting health in dry cities: considerations for policy makers. BMJ 2020; 371:m2936. [PMID: 33127838 PMCID: PMC7596730 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m2936] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Howard Frumkin
- School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Maitreyi Bordia Das
- Global Programs (Urban, Resilience, Land), The World Bank, Washington DC, USA
| | - Maya Negev
- School of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | | | | | - Carlos Dora
- Environmental Health Governance, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sonalde Desai
- Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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10
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Xu R, Xiong X, Abramson MJ, Li S, Guo Y. Ambient temperature and intentional homicide: A multi-city case-crossover study in the US. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 143:105992. [PMID: 32738768 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2020] [Revised: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There has been an increasing interest in the association between ambient temperature and violence and crime, in the context of global warming. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily ambient temperature and intentional homicide-a proxy for overall inter-personal violence. METHODS We collected daily weather and crime data from 9 large US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Louisville, New York, Tucson and Virginia Beach) from 2007 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used. The associations were quantified by conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for relative humidity, precipitation and effects of public holidays. City-specific odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the attributable fractions in each city. RESULTS Based on 19,523 intentional homicide cases, we found a linear temperature-homicide association. Every 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3-15.0%] and 8.8% (95% CI: 1.5-16.6%) increase in intentional homicide over lag 0-7 days in Chicago and New York, respectively. The association was not statistically significant in the other seven cities and seemed to be stronger for cases that happened during the hot season, at night (18:00-06:00) and on the street. During the study period, 8.7% (95%CI: 4.3-12.7%) and 7.1% (95% CI: 1.4-12.0%) intentional homicide cases could be attributed to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to 488 and 316 excess cases in Chicago and New York, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that the interpersonal violence might increase with temperature in some US cities. We also provide some insights into the mechanisms and targeted prevention strategies for heat-related violence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rongbin Xu
- School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, Shandong, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia
| | - Xiuqin Xiong
- Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Michael J Abramson
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, Shandong, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia.
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