Estimating completeness of national and subnational death reporting in Brazil: application of record linkage methods

Mortality risk and burden of aortic aneurysm and dissection attributable to low temperatures: A nationwide case-crossover analysis in Brazil, a predominantly tropical country

BACKGROUND

Low temperatures are adverse contributors to cardiovascular diseases, but the associations between short-term exposure to cold and the risk of death from aortic dissection and aneurysm remain unclear, particularly in tropical regions.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted based on 123,951 records of deaths caused by aortic dissection and aneurysms extracted from the national Mortality Information System in Brazil between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

Relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the aortic-related deaths associated with low ambient temperatures were estimated using the conditional logistic model combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Subgroup analyses were performed by age group, sex, race, education level, and residential region. Furthermore, this study calculated the number and fraction of aortic-related deaths attributed to temperatures below the temperature threshold to quantify the cold-related mortality burden of aortic diseases.

RESULTS

During the study period, aortic-related deaths and mortality rates in Brazil exhibited a steady increase, rising from 4419 (2.66/100,000) in 2000 to 8152 (3.88/100,000) in 2019. Under the identified temperature threshold (26 °C), per 1 °C decrease in daily mean temperature was associated with a 4.77 % (95 % CI: 4.35, 5.19) increase in mortality risk of aortic-related diseases over lag 0-3 days. Females, individuals aged 50 years or older, Asian and Black race, and northern residents were more susceptible to low temperatures. Low temperatures were responsible for 19.10 % (95 % CI: 17.71, 20.45) of aortic-related deaths in Brazil.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights that low temperatures were associated with an increased risk of aortic-related deaths, with a remarkable burden even in this predominantly tropical country.

Exploring factors and trends in place of death by cancer: a population-based study in Brazil

Background

The place of death profoundly affects end-of-life care quality, particularly in cancer. Assisting individuals at home enhances support, privacy, and control, reducing healthcare costs. This study seeks to elucidate factors associated and trends in place of death by cancer in Brazil.

Methods

Using data obtained from the National Mortality Information System, this study extracted tumour topography, sociodemographic characteristics, and the place of death (outcome classified into hospital or home death) by cancer in Brazil from 2002 to 2021.

Findings

The analysis included 3,677,415 cases, with 82.3% of deaths occurring in hospitals and 17.7% at home. Most participants were male (53.1%), had gastrointestinal tumours (32.2%), and resided in the Southeastern region (48.7%). Home deaths were more frequent in the Northeastern (30.2%) and Northern (24.8%) regions compared to the Southern (17.1%) and Southeastern (12.2%) regions. A strong inverse correlation was found between home deaths and the Human Development Index of the region. Over the years, there was a reduction in home deaths, followed by a recent increase. Individuals with no formal education, indigenous individuals, and patients from the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions had higher rates of home deaths, while patients with haematological malignancies had lower rates compared to those with gastrointestinal tumours.

Interpretation

The minority of deaths by cancer in Brazil occur at home, with distinct trends over time. Home death was associated with regional, racial and educational level differences.

Funding

No funding.

Prevalence and risk of stillbirth according to biologic vulnerability phenotypes in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and risk of stillbirths by biologic vulnerability phenotypes in a cohort of pregnant women in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, 2017-2019.

METHODS

Retrospective population-based cohort study. Fetuses were assessed as small for gestational age (SGA), large for gestational age (LGA), adequate for gestational age (AGA), preterm (PT) as less than 37 weeks of gestation, non-PT (NPT) as 37 weeks of gestation or more, low birth weight (LBW) as less than 2500 g, and non-LBW (NLBW) as 2500 g or more. Relative risks (RR) with robust variance were estimated using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

In all 442 782 pregnancies, including 2321 (0.5%) stillbirths, were included. About 85% (n = 1983) of stillbirths had at least one characteristic of vulnerability, compared with 21% (n = 92524) of live births. Fetuses with all three markers of vulnerability had the highest adjusted RR of stillbirth-SGA + LBW + PT (RR 155.00; 95% confidence interval [CI] 136.29-176.30) and LGA + LBW + PT (RR 262.04; 95% CI 206.10-333.16) when compared with AGA + NLBW + NPT.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that the simultaneous presence of prematurity, low birth weight, and abnormal intrauterine growth presented a higher risk of stillbirths. To accelerate progress towards reducing preventable stillbirths, one must identify the circumstances of greatest biologic vulnerability.

The rising trends of self-harm in Brazil: an ecological analysis of notifications, hospitalisations, and mortality between 2011 and 2022

Background

Self-harm is considered an important public health issue and is comprised by a wide range of definitions and behaviours. It is estimated that suicide affects more than 700,000 individuals every year, although, globally, there is a lack of evidence on other self-harm behaviour, such as attempted suicide. The objective of this study is to report and examine temporal trends of notifications, hospitalisations related to self-harm and suicide rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2022, as well as investigating differences in sociodemographic characteristics, methods, and region.

Methods

This ecological study used secondary, Brazilian Health Information System data between 2011 and 2022. Self-harm notifications were collected from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN); self-harm hospitalisations from the Hospital Information System (SIH), and suicide data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). We calculated self-harm notifications, hospitalisations, and suicide rates by sex, age, race, region, and overall. We assessed time-related trends using Joinpoint regression analyses.

Findings

From 2011 to 2022, 720,480 self-harm notifications, 104,458 self-harm hospitalisations, and 147,698 suicides were recorded in Brazil. In this period, self-harm notifications (AAPC: 21.13 (CI: 17.50, 25.33)) and suicide (AAPC: 3.70 (CI: 3.05, 4.38)) have increased in the country. Male adults (25-59 years old) and the elderly (>60 years old) continue to be the groups most affected by suicide, with respective rates of 9.59 and 8.60/100,000 in 2022. However, the largest percentage increases have been seen in young people (AAPC: 6.14 (CI: 4.57, 7.88)). The Indigenous population had the highest self-harm notification (103.72, 10,000) and suicide (16.58/100,000) rates, but the lowest hospitalisation rates (1.14/100,000) in 2022), compared to the overall population (70.06, 7.27, and 4.69/100,000, respectively, in 2022).

Interpretation

The observed trend of increased self-harm notifications and suicide rates suggests the need for a greater allocation of resources to strategies to prevent self-harm and suicide. The Indigenous population seems to be the group with less access to healthcare.

Funding

Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01MH128911-01. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases between 1990 and 2019, considering five etiologies (hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol use, NAFLD and other causes), age, gender, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

METHODS

Data on liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases accounted for 1,472,011 (95% UI 1,374,608-1,578,731) deaths worldwide, compared to 1,012,975 (948,941-1,073,877) deaths in 1990. Despite an increase in absolute deaths, the age-standardized death rate declined from 24.43 (22.93-25.73) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 18.00 (19.31-16.80) per 100,000 population in 2019. Eastern sub-Saharan Africa exhibited the highest age-standardized death rate (44.15 [38.47-51.91] per 100,000 population), while Australasia had the lowest rate (5.48 [5.05-5.93] deaths per 100,000 population in 2019). The age-standardized incidence rate of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases attributed to hepatitis B virus has declined since 1990, but incidence rates for other etiologies have increased. Age-standardized death and DALYs rates progressively decreased with higher SDI across different GBD regions and countries. Mortality due to liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased with age in 2019, and the death rate among males was estimated 1.51 times higher than that among females globally.

CONCLUSION

Liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases continues to pose a significant global public health challenge. Effective disease control, prevention, and treatment strategies should account for variations in risk factors, age, gender, and regional disparities.

Mortality trend due to chronic kidney disease in Brazil: an ecological study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze chronic kidney disease mortality in Brazil according to sex, age group and region of residence, from 2009 to 2020.

METHODS

This was a time series study having deaths as its unit of analysis, based on Mortality Information System data. The mortality rate was standardized using the direct method and the temporal trend was analyzed using the Prais-Winsten method.

RESULTS

There was a rising trend in chronic kidney disease mortality, ranging from 2.82, in 2009, to 3.24 in 2020 (average annual increase 1.29%; 95%CI 0.73;1.85), with a greater increase in males (1.14% per year; 95%CI 0.52;1.76), those aged 75 years and over (2.23% per year; 95%CI 1.87; 2.60) and in the Northern Region (3.86% per year; 95%CI 1.86;5.90) and Northeast Region (3.36% per year; 95%CI 2.24;4.50).

CONCLUSION

Chronic kidney disease mortality showed a rising trend in the period, with sociodemographic disparities.

MAIN RESULTS

A rising mortality trend was found for both sexes, with a greater increase in males, those aged over 75 years and in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil; mortality was highest in the Midwest region throughout the entire period.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICES

The results point to the need to implement public policies with guidelines for addressing chronic kidney disease, focused on strengthening Primary Health Care (PHC).

PERSPECTIVES

Expanding access to health services, health education and integration between PHC, health surveillance and specialized care are strategies that would possibly prove to be efficient in managing this chronic health condition.

Factors associated with the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities: A data-driven non-linear model

Studies evaluating the local quality of death certification in Brazil focused on completeness of death reporting or inappropriate coding of causes of death, with few investigating missing data. We aimed to use missing and unexpected values in core topics to assess the quality of death certification in Brazilian municipalities, to evaluate its correlation with the percentage of garbage codes, and to employ a data-driven approach with non-linear models to investigate the association of the socioeconomic and health infrastructure context with quality of death statistics among municipalities. This retrospective study used data from the Mortality Information System (2010-2017), and municipal data regarding healthcare infrastructure, socioeconomic characteristics, and death rates. Quality of death certification was assessed by missing or unexpected values in the following core topics: dates of occurrence, registration, and birth, place of occurrence, certifier, sex, and marital status. Models were fit to classify municipalities according to the quality of death certification (poor quality defined as death records with missing or unexpected values in core topics ≥ 80%). Municipalities with poor quality of death certification (43.9%) presented larger populations, lower death rates, lower socioeconomic index, healthcare infrastructure with fewer beds and physicians, and higher proportion of public healthcare facilities. The correlation coefficients between quality of death certification assessed by missing or unexpected values and the proportion of garbage codes were weak (0.11-0.49), but stronger for municipalities with lower socioeconomic scores. The model that best fitted the data was the random forest classifier (ROC AUC = 0.76; precision-recall AUC = 0.78). This innovative way of assessing the quality of death certification could help quality improvement initiatives to include the correctness of essential fields, in addition to garbage coding or completeness of records, especially in municipalities with lower socioeconomic status where garbage coding and the correctness of core topics appear to be related issues.

Avaliação dos dados de mortes por COVID-19 nas bases dos cartórios do RC-Arpen, SIVEP-Gripe e SIM no Brasil em 2020

Este estudo compara os registros de óbitos por COVID-19 em 2020 para todo o território nacional. Utilizamos três bases distintas: Registro Civil (RC-Arpen), Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe). Há discordâncias entre os números de mortes por COVID-19 divulgados pelas diversas bases e essas diferenças variam em cada Unidade da Federação. A base do RC-Arpen é atualizada mais rapidamente que as outras duas bases do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde - DATASUS (SIM e SIVEP-Gripe), além de ser mais indicada para monitoramentos e pesquisas que abrangem períodos mais recentes. Apesar da atualização mais lenta, as bases do DATASUS apresentam números geograficamente similares e divulgam dados mais detalhados sobre as mortes. Esse detalhamento das informações torna as bases do DATASUS mais adequadas para pesquisas que demandam mais informações sobre o paciente e o tratamento.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010

OBJECTIVE

To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count.

METHODS

This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps.

RESULTS

Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country.

CONCLUSION

The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Impact of Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a natural experiment study using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has a disproportionate effect on mortality among the poorest people. We assessed the impact on CVD and all-cause mortality of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme (BFP).

METHODS

We linked administrative data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort with BFP receipt and national mortality data. We followed individuals who applied for BFP between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2015, until 31 December 2015. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of BFP on all-age and premature (30-69 years) CVD and all-cause mortality. We conducted stratified analyses by levels of material deprivation and access to healthcare. We checked the robustness of our findings by restricting the analysis to municipalities with better mortality data and by using alternative statistical methods.

RESULTS

We studied 17 981 582 individuals, of whom 4 855 324 were aged 30-69 years. Three-quarters (76.2%) received BFP, with a mean follow-up post-award of 2.6 years. We detected 106 807 deaths by all causes, of which 60 893 were premature; and 23 389 CVD deaths, of which 15 292 were premature. BFP was associated with reductions in premature all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98], premature CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.92-1.00) and all-age CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-1.00) but not all-age all-cause mortality (HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.98-1.02). In stratified and robustness analyses, BFP was consistently associated with mortality reductions for individuals living in the two most deprived quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

BFP appears to have a small to null effect on premature CVD and all-cause mortality in the short term; the long-term impact remains unknown.

Analysis of the completeness of self-harm and suicide records in Pernambuco, Brazil, 2014-2016

INTRODUCTION

Suicides and suicide attempts are major public health problems, and coping strategies are hampered by insufficient or inadequate notifications. Data accuracy influences the formulation of public and mental health policies and suicide prevention strategies. The objective of this study was to analyze the completeness of self-harm and suicide records in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, 2014-2016.

METHODS

This is an evaluative study with a descriptive design. The data were collected from suicide attempt records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and suicide records from the Mortality Information System. Probabilistic linkage was used to relate these databases, and the degree of completeness of the variables was calculated. Completeness was classified into the following categories: good (≥ 75.1%), regular (50.1%-75.0%), low (25.1%-50.0%), and very low (≤ 25.0%).

RESULTS

In the analyzed period, 1,404 notifications of self-harm were studied, with an overall mean completeness of 86.2%. In addition, 1,050 suicide records were analyzed, with an overall mean completeness of 95.8%. Most variables referring to suicide attempts had good completeness, with the exception of the variables "occupation" and "education." The completeness of all suicide-related variables was rated as good. After linkage, a significant improvement was observed in the degree of completeness of the variable "occupation".

CONCLUSION

The results of this study showed that the completeness of self-harm and suicide variables improved from the first to the last year. The integration of data from different information systems provides an opportunity to improve suicide prevention programs and the quality of available information. Continuous efforts to increase the completeness and reliability of suicide surveillance systems are fundamental to describe the epidemiological profile and, consequently, plan preventive actions, in addition to contributing to the development and reformulation of strategies aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality related to suicidal behavior.

Excess Mortality due to natural causes among whites and blacks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Excess Mortality by all causes considers deaths directly related to COVID-19 and those attributed to conditions caused by the pandemic. When stratified by social dimensions, such as race/color, it allows for the evaluation of more vulnerable populations. The study estimated the excess mortality by natural causes, separating the white and black populations in 2020.

METHODS

Public civil registration data on deaths observed in 2020, corrected for under registration, were used. The expected number of deaths was estimated based on the mortality rates observed in 2019, applied to the estimated population in 2020. The difference between the values expected and observed and the proportion of excess was considered the excess mortality.

RESULTS

The present study found an excess of 270,321 deaths (22.2% above the expected) in 2020. Every state of Brazil reported deaths above the corresponding expected figure. The excess was higher for men (25.2%) than for women (19.0%). Blacks showed an excess of 27.8%, as compared to whites at 17.6%. In both sexes and all age groups, excess was higher in the black population, especially in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions. São Paulo, the largest in population number, had twice as much excess death in the black population (25.1%) than in the white population (11.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study showed racial disparities in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. The higher excess found for the black suggests an intrinsic relationship with the socioeconomic situation, further exposing the Brazilian reality, in which social and structural inequality is evident.

Biases arising from linked administrative data for epidemiological research: a conceptual framework from registration to analyses

Linked administrative data offer a rich source of information that can be harnessed to describe patterns of disease, understand their causes and evaluate interventions. However, administrative data are primarily collected for operational reasons such as recording vital events for legal purposes, and planning, provision and monitoring of services. The processes involved in generating and linking administrative datasets may generate sources of bias that are often not adequately considered by researchers. We provide a framework describing these biases, drawing on our experiences of using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (100MCohort) which contains records of more than 131 million people whose families applied for social assistance between 2001 and 2018. Datasets for epidemiological research were derived by linking the 100MCohort to health-related databases such as the Mortality Information System and the Hospital Information System. Using the framework, we demonstrate how selection and misclassification biases may be introduced in three different stages: registering and recording of people's life events and use of services, linkage across administrative databases, and cleaning and coding of variables from derived datasets. Finally, we suggest eight recommendations which may reduce biases when analysing data from administrative sources.

Análise da qualidade da informação sobre óbitos por neoplasias no Brasil, entre 2009 e 2019

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a qualidade das informações sobre mortalidade por neoplasias no âmbito do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Métodos: Estudo descritivo observacional com avaliação da qualidade do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, com desfecho referente aos dados de óbitos por neoplasias ocorridos entre os anos de 2009 e 2019 na população brasileira (≥15 anos). A qualidade da informação (QI) foi mensurada para o Brasil e para as Unidades Federativas por meio das dimensões: cobertura, especificidade e completude dos dados. Resultados: A qualidade da dimensão cobertura variou entre “boa” e “excelente” nas abrangências nacional e estadual. A dimensão especificidade foi classificada como inadequada predominantemente nos Estados das Regiões Norte e Nordeste. A proporção de causas mal definidas foi classificada como de “baixa” qualidade na maioria das unidades de análise ao longo da série. A completude dos dados variou de acordo com o indicador utilizado, os indicadores sexo e idade mostraram-se “excelentes” para todo o período e unidades de análise, a escolaridade apresentou variação de qualidade tanto nas unidades como nos períodos e o estado civil apresentou melhoria da qualidade de seu registro ao longo do período, assim como o indicador raça/cor. Conclusões: A qualidade dos dados de mortalidade por neoplasias na população brasileira (≥15 anos) é, em sua maioria, adequada, mas há lacunas importantes que merecem ser preenchidas, pois a ampliação da QI busca dar visibilidade à condição de saúde da população brasileira, bem como propor ações públicas para sua melhoria.

Analysis of quality of information about deaths from neoplasms in Brazil between 2009 and 2019

ABSTRACT Objective To assess the quality of information about mortality from neoplasm within the Mortality Information System. Methods: Descriptive observational study evaluating the quality of the Mortality Information System, with an outcome referring to data on deaths from neoplasm between 2009 and 2019 in the Brazilian population (≥15 years). Information Quality (IQ) was measured through coverage, specificity and completeness of data, at national and state level. Results: The quality of the coverage dimension ranged from “good” to “excellent” in the national and state coverages. Specificity was classified as inadequate mainly in the states of the North and Northeast regions. The proportion of ill-defined causes was classified as “poor” quality in most units of analysis throughout the series. Data completeness varied according to indicator. Gender and age indicators were proven “excellent” for the entire period and units of analysis, while educational level varied in quality across units and periods, marital status had its quality improved over the period, as well as ethnicity/skin color. Conclusions: The quality of data on mortality from neoplasm in the Brazilian population (≥15 years) is mostly adequate, but there are important gaps to be filled, as the expansion of IQ seeks to give visibility to the health condition of the Brazilian population and to propose public actions for its improvement.

Birthweight, gestational age and familial confounding in sex differences in infant mortality: a matched co-twin control study of Brazilian male-female twin pairs identified by population data linkage

BACKGROUND

In infancy, males are at higher risk of dying than females. Birthweight and gestational age are potential confounders or mediators but are also familial and correlated, posing epidemiological challenges that can be addressed by studying male-female twin pairs.

METHODS

We studied 28 558 male-female twin pairs born in Brazil between 2012 and 2016, by linking their birth and death records. Using a co-twin control study matched for gestational age and familial factors, we applied logistic regression with random effects (to account for paired data) to study the association between male sex and infant death, adjusting for: birthweight, within- and between-pair effects of birthweight, birth order and gestational age, including interactions. The main outcome was infant mortality (0-365 days) stratified by neonatal (early and late) and postneonatal deaths.

RESULTS

Males were 100 g heavier and more at risk of infant death than their female co-twins before [odds ratio (OR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.49, P = 0.001] and after (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.39-1.83, P <0.001) adjusting for birthweight and birth order. When adjusting for birthweight within-pair difference and mean separately, the OR attenuated to 1.40 (95% CI: 1.21-1.61, P <0.001), with evidence of familial confounding (likelihood ratio test, P <0.001). We found evidence of interaction (P = 0.001) between male sex and gestational age for early neonatal death.

CONCLUSIONS

After matching for gestational age and familial factors by design and controlling for birthweight and birth order, males remain at greater risk of infant death than their female co-twins. Birthweight's role as a confounder can be partially explained by familial factors.

Estimation of all-cause excess mortality by age-specific mortality patterns for countries with incomplete vital statistics: a population-based study of the case of Peru during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

All-cause excess mortality is a comprehensive measure of the combined direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on mortality. Estimates are usually derived from Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems, but these do not include non-registered deaths, which may be affected by changes in vital registration coverage over time.

METHODS

Our analytical framework and empirical strategy account for registered mortality and under-registration. This provides a better estimate of the actual mortality impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. We use population and crude mortality rate projections from Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI, in Spanish), individual-level registered COVID-19 deaths from the Ministry of Health (MoH), and individual-level registered deaths by region and age since 2017 from the National Electronic Deaths Register (SINADEF, in Spanish).We develop a novel framework combining different estimates and using quasi-Poisson models to estimate total excess mortality across regions and age groups. Also, we use logistic mixed-effects models to estimate the coverage of the new SINADEF system.

FINDINGS

We estimate that registered mortality underestimates national mortality by 37•1% (95% CI 23% - 48•5%) across 26 regions and nine age groups. We estimate total all-cause excess mortality during the period of analysis at 173,099 (95% CI 153,669 - 187,488) of which 108,943 (95% CI 96,507 - 118,261) were captured by the vital registration system. Deaths at age 60 and over accounted for 74•1% (95% CI 73•9% - 74•7%) of total excess deaths, and there were fewer deaths than expected in younger age groups. Lima region, on the Pacific coast and including the national capital, accounts for the highest share of excess deaths, 87,781 (95% CI 82,294 - 92,504), while in the opposite side regions of Apurimac and Huancavelica account for less than 300 excess deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Estimating excess mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Peru must take under-registration of mortality into account. Combining demographic trends with data from administrative registries reduces uncertainty and measurement errors. In countries like Peru, this is likely to produce significantly higher estimates of excess mortality than studies that do not take these effects into account.

FUNDING

None.

Racial disparity in excess mortality in Brazil during COVID-19 times

We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality by race/skin color in Brazil, between epidemiological weeks 12 and 50 of 2020. We compared the 2020-point estimate and the expected point-estimate applying 2019 mortality rates to the 2020 population. There was an excess of 187,002 deaths (+20.2%) compared to the expected. Excess mortality was 26.3% (23.3%-29.3%) among blacks/browns compared to 15.1% (14.1%-16.1%) among whites (58.9% of excess among black/browns). Age-standardized rates increased from 377 to 419/100,000 among blacks/browns compared to 328 to 398/100,000 in whites, resulting in 9% relative risk. Excess mortality in Brazil depicts a considerable gap, with increased mortality in all age-groups in the black/brown population.

Generating age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration data: two applications of the empirical completeness method

Background

The study aims to assess two approaches that apply the empirical completeness method to generate age-specific mortality statistics from incomplete death registration systems.

Methods

We use the empirical completeness method to calculate all-age death registration completeness, which is used with a model life table to generate mortality statistics and age-specific completeness using (1) the conventional method and (2) the equivalent deaths method. The results are compared with a capture-recapture (C-RC) study and three alternative mortality estimates for Brazilian states, and C-RC studies in Thailand, Oman and Vietnam, which independently estimate the level and age pattern of mortality or completeness.

Results

The empirical completeness method produces similar estimates of all-age completeness of registration to the C-RC studies. Compared with C-RC studies, at 15-59 years, the conventional method’s estimates of mortality and completeness are more concordant, while at 60-84 years the equivalent death method’s estimates are closer. Estimates of life expectancy from the two approaches each have similar concordance with the C-RC studies. For male adult mortality in Brazilian states, there is relatively strong average correlation of this study's estimates with three alternative estimates.

Conclusions

The two approaches produce mortality statistics from incomplete data that are mostly concordant with C-RC studies, and can be most usefully applied to subnational populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00262-3.