The global, regional, and national disease burden of breast cancer attributable to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Global, regional, and national temporal trends in metabolism-related ischemic stroke mortality and disability from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Stroke ranks as the second leading cause of mortality and the third leading cause of disability worldwide. Nonetheless, the evolving burden of ischemic stroke attributable to various metabolic risk factors remains inadequately elucidated. A thorough grasp of these trends is crucial for a nuanced comprehension of stroke epidemiology and the formulation of effective preventive and interventional measures.

METHOD

Based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD), we analyzed national temporal trends in the burden of metabolism-associated ischemic stroke in 204 countries and territories globally from 1990-2021, as measured by the average annual percentage change (AAPC), using join-point regression models. The burden of disease was assessed using age-standardized (ASR) mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per 100 000 population. Cross-country inequalities in ischemic stroke burden were quantified using standard health equity methods and changes in ischemic stroke burden were projected to 2045.

RESULTS

Globally, the ASR for ischemic stroke mortality linked to overall dietary metabolic risk declined by an average of 1.6% annually, while the ASR for disability-adjusted life years saw an average annual decrease of 1.3%. High systolic blood pressure remained a primary contributor to metabolism-related ischemic stroke, accounting for 57.9% of deaths and 58.0% of disability in 2021. Disparities associated with the sociodemographic index (SDI) diminished, with the gap in DALYs between countries with the highest and lowest SDIs narrowing from 592.2 (95% CI: 440.2-744.4) to 480.4 (95% CI: 309.7-651.2) in 2021. Projections indicate a continued decline in overall metabolism-related ischemic stroke deaths, mortality rates, and ASRs through 2045, although an increase in DALYs and ASRs is anticipated within the male population.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of metabolic risk-associated ischemic stroke has generally been decreasing from 2019 to 2021. This study highlights significant challenges in controlling and managing metabolic risk-associated ischemic stroke, including an increase in the number of cases in certain countries and regions, as well as an uneven distribution worldwide. These findings may provide valuable insights for the development of improved public health policies and the rational allocation of healthcare resources.

Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM.

METHODS

Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns.

RESULTS

In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions.

CONCLUSION

LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.

Incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of female breast cancer in China, 2022

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is ranked among the most prevalent malignancies in the Chinese female population. However, comprehensive reports detailing the latest epidemiological data and attributable disease burden have not been extensively documented.

METHODS

In 2018, high-quality cancer surveillance data were recorded in 700 population-based cancer registries in China. We extracted data on female breast cancers (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision [ICD-10]: C50) and estimated the incidence and mortality in 2022 according to the baseline data and corresponding trends from 2010 to 2018. Pathological types were classified according to the ICD for Oncology, 3rd Edition codes. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of the years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).

RESULTS

In 2022, approximately 357,200 new female breast cancer cases and 75,000 deaths occurred in China, accounting for 15.59% and 7.94% of total new cancer cases and deaths, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 33.04 per 100,000. When analyzed by pathological type, the ASIRs for papillary neoplasms, invasive breast carcinoma, rare and salivary gland-type tumors, and other types were 1.13, 29.79, 0.24, and 1.88 per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 6.10 per 100,000. A total of 2,628,000 DALYs were found to be attributable to female breast cancer in China, comprising 2,278,300 YLLs and 349,700 YLDs. The ASIR, ASMR, and age-standardized rate (ASR) for DALYs in urban areas were consistently higher than those in rural areas. We observed a four-fold increase in the ASIR and ASR for DALYs and an eight-fold increase in the ASMR among females over 55 years compared with those aged under 55 years.

CONCLUSION

These data provide invaluable insights into the latest epidemiology of female breast cancer in China and highlight the urgency for disease prevention and control strategy formulation.

Trend analysis of stroke subtypes mortality attributable to high body-mass index in China from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of stroke disability associated with high BMI has significantly increased over the past three decades. However, it remains uncertain whether high body-mass index (BMI) exerts a similar impact on the disease burden of different stroke subtypes. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends of stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Data on stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China was extracted in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated using the linear regression and age-period-cohort framework.

RESULTS

The changing trend of ASMR on stroke attributable to high BMI in China differed among subtypes, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95%CI of 2.04 (1.86 to 2.21) for ischemic stroke (IS), 0.36 (-0.03 to 0.75) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and - 4.62 (-5.44 to -3.78) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Net and local drift analyses revealed a gradual increase in the proportion of older people with IS and a gradual increase in the proportion of younger people with hemorrhagic strokes. The cohort and period rate ratios varied by subtype, showing an increasing trend for IS and ICH but a decreasing trend for SAH. The stroke mortality attributable to high BMI increased significantly with age for IS and ICH, peaking between ages 50-70 for SAH. Notably, males had higher ASMR related to stroke but exhibited slighter declines or higher growth compared to females in China. Moreover, the population affected by fatal strokes tended to be older among females but more evenly distributed across a wider age range encompassing both younger and older individuals.

CONCLUSION

The research findings indicate a rising trend in the ASMR of stroke and subtypes attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019, with different patterns of change for different subtypes, genders and ages. Consequently, it is imperative for public health authorities in China to formulate guidelines for specific stroke subtypes, genders and ages to prevent the burden of stroke attributable to high BMI.

Global, regional, and national burden of female cancers in women of child-bearing age, 1990-2021: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021

Background

The global status of women's health is underestimated, particularly the burden on women of child-bearing age (WCBA). We aim to investigate the pattern and trend of female cancers among WCBA from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 on the incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of four major female cancers (breast, cervical, uterine, and ovarian cancer) among WCBA (15-49 years) in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) in the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates of female cancers, by age and socio-demographic index (SDI), were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation between age-standardised rates and SDI.

Findings

In 2021, an estimated 1,013,475 new cases of overall female cancers were reported globally, with a significant increase in age-standardised incidence rate (EAPC 0.16%), and a decrease in age-standardised DALY rate (-0.73%) from 1990 to 2021. Annual increase trends of age-standardised incidence rate were observed in all cancers, except for that in cervical cancer. Contrary, the age-standardised DALY rate decreased in all cancers. Breast and cervical cancers were prevalent among WCBA worldwide, followed by ovarian and uterine cancers, with regional disparities in the burden of four female cancers. In addition, the age-standardised incidence rates of breast, ovarian, and uterine cancers basically showed a consistent upward trend with increasing SDI, while both the age-standardised incidence and DALY rates in cervical cancer exhibited downward trends with SDI. Age-specific rates of female cancers increased with age in 2021, with the most significant changes observed in younger age groups, except for uterine cancer.

Interpretation

The rising global incidence of female cancers, coupled with regional variations in DALYs, underscores the urgent need for innovative prevention and healthcare strategies to mitigate the burden among WCBA worldwide.

Funding

This study was supported by the Science Foundation for Young Scholars of Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (NO. 2022QN44 and NO. 2022QN18); the Key R&D Projects of Sichuan Provincial Department of Science and Technology (NO. 2023YFS0196); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82303701).

Trends in the global, regional, and national burden of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2019: an observational study with 30-year global data

BACKGROUND

Testicular cancer (TC) is currently the most common malignancy in young and middle-aged men. A comprehensive assessment of TC burden is in lack.

METHOD

Global incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of TC from 1990 to 2019 were obtained. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify trends in TC changes during the period. Relationships between disease burden and age, socio-demographic index (SDI) levels, human development index (HDI) were further analyzed.

RESULTS

Globally, incident cases of TC more than doubled from 1990 to 2019, together with an increasing of global age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TC from 1.9 to 2.8. The age-standardized deaths rates (ASDR) remained stable from 0.31 to 0.28. The similar results were reflected in the DALYs. In 2019, the highest ASIR were found in Southern Latin America, Central Europe and Western Europe. Analogously, the highest ASDR were found in Southern Latin America followed by Central Latin America and Central Europe. The burden of incidence increased with SDI, appropriately reached a peak at about 0.78, and then declined. Similarly, the burden of deaths increased with SDI, met a maximum at about 0.7.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of TC has increased significantly, while the ASDR has been relatively stable and slightly decreased. The disease burden of TC is shifting to regions and countries with moderate to high levels of development. TC remains a rapidly growing global health problem, and new changes in TC burden should be considered when formulating new TC control policies.

Analysis and projections of disease burden for different risk factors and sexes of ischemic stroke in young adults in China

To estimate the rate of death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and project the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to relevant risk factors in young adults age 20-49 years by sex in China. Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used. The age-standardized mortality (ASMR), age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. We also used the NORDPRED model to predict ASMR for ischemic stroke due to related risk factors in Chinese young adults over the next 10 years. From 1990 to 2019, the general age-standardized mortality [from 2.39 (1.97 to 2.99) in 1990 to 1.8 (1.41 to 2.18) in 2019, EAPC = - 1.23] and DALYs rates (from 171.7 (140.34 to 212.36) in 1990 to 144.4 (114.29 to 177.37) in 2019, EAPC = - 0.86) decreased for ischemic stroke in young adults in China. ASMR and ASDR decreased for all level 1 risk factors (including behavioral, environmental/occupational, and metabolic) from 1990 to 2019, with the slightest decrease for metabolic risks [ASMR from 1.86 (1.39 to 2.41) in 1990 to 1.53 (1.15 to 1.92) in 2019, ASDR from 133.68 (99.96 to 173.89) in 1990 to 123.54 (92.96 to 156.98) in 2019] and the largest decrease for environmental/occupational risks [ASMR from 1.57 (1.26 to 1.98) in 1990 to 1.03 (0.78 to 1.29) in 2019, ASDR from 110.91 (88.44 to 138.34) in 1990 to 80.03 (61.87 to 100.33) in 2019]. In general, high body-mass index, high red meat intake, and ambient particulate matter pollution contributed to the large increase in ASMR and ASDR between 1990 and 2019. Significant reductions in ASMR and ASDR were observed in low vegetables intake, household air pollution from solid fuels, lead exposure, and low fiber intake. In addition, there were sex differences in the ranking of ASMR attributable to risks in ischemic stroke. The disease burden of ischemic stroke attributable to relevant risk factors in young adults in China is greater and has a faster growth trend or a slower decline trend in males than in females (except for secondhand smoke). The apparent increasing trend of ASMR attributable to high fasting plasma glucose, high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high red meat intake was observed in males but not in females. The projected analysis showed an increasing trend in ASMR between 1990 and 2030 for all specific metabolic risks for males, but a decreasing trend for females. ASMR attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2030 for both males and females. The burden of ischemic stroke in young adults in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Specific risk factors associated with the burden of ischemic stroke varied between the sexes. Corresponding measures need to be developed in China to reduce the disease burden of ischemic stroke among young adults.

Changing Patterns of Stroke and Subtypes Attributable to High Systolic Blood Pressure in China From 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether high systolic blood pressure had a similar effect on the disease burden of stroke subtypes. The aim of our study is to compare the long-term trends of stroke subtypes and sex groups attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data about the age-standardized mortality rate and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate of stroke subtypes attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China were extracted in GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019. The trends in the age-standardized mortality rate and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate were calculated using the liner regression and age-period-cohort method, adjusted for age, period, and cohort.

RESULTS

The estimated annual percentage change for mortality of stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure was different from subtypes, with an estimated annual percentage change and 95% CI of 0.56 (0.37-0.74) for ischemic stroke (IS), -1.52 (-1.97 to -1.07) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and -7.02 (-7.86 to -6.17) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The curve of the net drifts showed a downward trend for intracerebral hemorrhage and SAH, but that showed a stable trend for IS. The curve of local drifts showed a slow upward trend with age for IS, a slow downward trend for intracerebral hemorrhage, and a sharp downward trend for SAH. The drift curves showed different trends for males and females. The proportion of stroke mortality in young males was gradually increasing. The cohort rate ratio varied by subtypes, with the greatest decline for SAH, a slight decrease for intracerebral hemorrhage, and a slight increase for IS. The period rate ratio had decreased over the past 3 decades, with the greatest decline for SAH and the weakest decrease for IS. Moreover, both the period and cohort rate ratios for IS mortality due to high systolic blood pressure in males have increased significantly over the past 3 decades.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provided strong evidence that the disease burden of stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure varied by subtypes and sex in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality rate and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate decreased for hemorrhagic stroke but increased for IS. Males had a higher mortality and exposure risk but a slighter decreasing trend than females. Our study suggested that greater attention should be given to the prevention of the burden of IS attributable to systolic blood pressure in China, especially for males.

The global burden of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes attributable to low physical activity, 1990-2019: an analysis from the global burden of disease study

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) account for the majority of the burden of noncommunicable disease caused by low physical activity (LPA). In order to inform future interventions, this study aims to assess the burden and trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CVD and T2D attributable to LPA by year, location, sex, and age from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Mortality, DALYs, and their age-standardised rates (ASMR, ASDR) for CVD and T2D attributable to LPA were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated using linear regression model to describe the trend over time.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths caused by both CVD and T2D due to LPA increased significantly globally. However, the overall ASMR and ASDR for CVD declined over this same period [EAPC for ASMR (CVD) = -1.44 (95% CI: -1.50-1.38), EAPC for ASDR (CVD) = -1.30 (95% CI: -1.35 to -1.25)]. In terms of disparities, ASMR (CVD) and ASDR (CVD) in North Africa and the Middle East were consistently higher than the global average; also, the sex difference in ASMR was greatest in Central Asia. ASMR among people aged 25-44 in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region has increased significantly over the past three decades. ASMR (T2D) due to LPA showed an increasing trend year by year, with EAPC = 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.39), and this rate increased faster in males than in females. Consistent with cardiovascular diseases, ASMR of type 2 diabetes attributable to LPA increased among people aged 25-44, while decreased in other age groups in high SDI region.

Conclusion

Interventions targeting LPA are warranted in controlling the burden of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes. Countries should adapt strategies to their local contexts, considering the sex and age differences among their populations. The 25-44 age group should be given special attention to prevent the disease burden from worsening among younger people.

Effect and mechanism of paclitaxel loaded on magnetic Fe3O4@mSiO2-NH2-FA nanocomposites to MCF-7 cells

Magnetic Fe₃O₄ nanoparticles were prepared via a simple hydrothermal method and utilized to load paclitaxel. The average particle size of Fe₃O₄ nanoparticles was found to be 20.2 ± 3.0 nm, and the calculated saturation magnetization reached 129.38 emu/g, verifying superparamagnetism of nanomaterials. The specific surface area and pore volume were 84.756 m²/g and 0.265 cm³/g, respectively. Subsequently, Fe₃O₄@mSiO₂ nanoparticles were successfully fabricated using the Fe₃O₄ nanoparticles as precursors with an average size of 27.81 nm. The relevant saturation magnetization, zeta potential, and specific surface area of Fe₃O₄@mSiO₂-NH₂-FA were respectively 76.3 emu/g, -14.1 mV, and 324.410 m²/g. The pore volume and average adsorption pore size were 0.369 cm³/g and 4.548 nm, respectively. Compared to free paclitaxel, the solubility and stability of nanoparticles loaded with paclitaxel were improved. The drug loading efficiency and drug load of the nanoformulation were 44.26 and 11.38%, respectively. The Fe₃O₄@mSiO₂-NH₂-FA nanocomposites were easy to construct with excellent active targeting performance, pH sensitivity, and sustained-release effect. The nanoformulation also showed good biocompatibility, where the cell viability remained at 73.8% when the concentration reached 1200 μg/mL. The nanoformulation induced cell death through apoptosis, as confirmed by AO/EB staining and flow cytometry. Western blotting results suggested that the nanoformulation could induce iron death by inhibiting Glutathione Peroxidase 4 (GPX4) activity or decreasing Ferritin Heavy Chain 1 (FTH1) expression. Subsequently, the expression of HIF-1α was upregulated owing to the accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), thus affecting the expression of apoptosis-related proteins regulated by p53, inducing cell apoptosis.

Thyroid cancer burden and risk factors in China from 1990-2019: a systematic analysis using the global burden of disease study

Background

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine system malignancy with a rapidly increasing incidence in China. Epidemiological data on TC at the national level are lacking. This study aimed to quantify the TC disease burden in China between 1990 and 2019 and evaluate the current status and trends of the disease burden attributed to a high body mass index (HBMI).

Methods

The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study dataset was used to explore the TC disease burden. Age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), deaths (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were considered and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated as a measure of the average change in age-standardized rates. The trend in TC-related mortality and DALYs attributed to an HBMI, accounting for different age groups and sexes, was examined.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, the ASDR and DALYs for TC decreased by 0.02/100000 and 1.17/100000, respectively. The ASPR and ASIR increased by 9.88/100000 and 1.04/100000, respectively. The EAPC for ASDR, age-standardized rates of DALYs, ASPR, and ASIR were 0.06 (95% CI: -0.09, 0.21), -0.20 (95% CI: -0.31, -0.10), 3.52 (95% CI: 3.35, 3.68), and 2.73 (95% CI: 2.58, 2.88), respectively. TC-related deaths, DALYs, and their prevalence and incidence in China increased by 118%, 350%, 81%, and 290%, respectively. The disease burden of TC was higher among male than female patients in different age groups, with varying distributions. The disease burden attributed to HBMI gradually increased over the past 30 years according to age-standardized DALYs, particularly in male patients.

Conclusion

The TC burden has increased in China over the past 30 years, and population aging poses a challenge to TC prevention and control. HBMI has become an important factor in the TC disease burden and further research should focus on reducing the disease burden among Chinese male patients with TC.

Physical activity and cancer risk: a dose-response analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

Adopting a healthy lifestyle, including regular physical activity, is widely believed to decrease cancer risk. This study aimed to quantitatively establish the dose-response relationships between total physical activity and the risk of breast, colon, lung, gastric, and liver cancers.

METHODS

A systematic review and dose-response analysis were conducted using PubMed and Embase from January 1, 1980 to March 20, 2023. Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between physical activity and the risks of any of the 5 outcomes were included. The search was confined to publications in the English language with a specific focus on human studies. Physical activity is standardized by using the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database.

RESULTS

A total of 98 studies, involving a combined population of 16,418,361 individuals, were included in the analysis. Among the included studies, 57 focused on breast cancer, 17 on lung cancer, 23 on colon cancer, 5 on gastric cancer, and 7 on liver cancer. Overall, elevated levels of physical activity exhibited an inverse correlation with the risk of cancer. The dose-response curve for lung cancer exhibited a non-linear pattern, with the greatest benefit risk reduction observed at 13,200 MET-minutes/week of physical activity, resulting in a 14.7% reduction in risk (relative risk 0.853, uncertainty interval 0.798 to 0.912) compared to the inactive population. In contrast, the dose-response curves for colon, gastric, breast, and liver cancers showed linear associations, indicating that heightened levels of total physical activity were consistently associated with reduced cancer risks. However, the increase in physical activity yielded a smaller risk reduction for colon and gastric cancers compared to breast and liver cancers. Compared to individuals with insufficient activity (total activity level < 600 MET-minutes/week), individuals with high levels of activity (≥ 8,000 MET-minutes/week) experienced a 10.3% (0.897, 0.860 to 0.934) risk reduction for breast cancer; 5.9% (0.941, 0.884 to 1.001) for lung cancer; 7.1% (0.929, 0.909 to 0.949) for colon cancer; 5.1% (0.949, 0.908 to 0.992) for gastric cancer; 17.1% (0.829, 0.760 to 0.903) for liver cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between total physical activity and the risk of breast, gastric, liver, colon, and lung cancers.

Changes in the disease burden of breast cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projections: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

To investigate the secular trends in breast cancer burden with attributable risk factors, and make projections over time, which would contribute to the control and prevention of breast cancer.

METHODS

We extracted detailed data on breast cancer incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), as well as the attributable risk factors in China from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the changing trends. The national DALYs attributable to Socio-demographic Index (SDI) values were also presented. Projections to 2030 were estimated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of breast cancer incident cases increased fourfold to 375,484, with deaths and DALYs over doubling to 96.306 and 2,957,454, respectively. The ASIR (EAPC = 2.84; 95% CI, 2.74-2.95) and ASMR (EAPC = 0.06; 95% CI, 0.00-0.12) increased, while the ASDR decreased with the EAPC of -0.13 (95% CI, -0.19 to -0.06) at the same period. The ASDR varied across provincial regions, which appeared to be in a wave-like upcurve with SDI values increasing. High body mass index became the first contribution to breast cancer DALYs for females in 2019, and alcohol use for males. Breast Cancer incident cases and deaths would increase to 587.7 and 125.6 thousand in 2030, of which there will be 577.1 and 122.7 thousand for females, and 10.6 and 2.9 thousand for males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer remains a major public health problem in China. The absolute burden has been increasing over time, and varied across sex and regions. To control the potential risk factors and develop specific strategies will help to reduce the disease burden.

The Global Burden of Disease attributable to low physical activity and its trends from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Introduction

Low physical activity (LPA) is associated with several major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and premature mortality. In this study, we aimed to assess the global burden and trends in disease attributable to LPA (DALPA) from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Annual age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and death rates of DALPA [all-cause and five specific causes (ischaemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, colon and rectal cancer, and breast cancer)] by sex, age, geographical region and social deprivation index (SDI) score from 1990 to 2019 were available from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the changing trend. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to explore the relationship between DALYs/death rates of DALPA and sociodemographic factors.

Results

Globally, in 2019, the age-standardized DALYs and death rates of DALPA were 198.42/100,000 (95% UI: 108.16/100,000-360.32/100,000) and 11.10/100,000 (95% UI: 5.66/100,000-19.51/100,000), respectively. There were 15.74 million (8.51-28.61) DALYs and 0.83 million (0.43-1.47) deaths attributable to LPA. Overall, age-standardized DALYs and death rates presented significant downward trends with EAPCs [-0.68% (95% CI: -0.85- -0.50%) for DALYs and -1.00% (95% CI: -1.13- -0.86%) for deaths] from 1990 to 2019. However, age-standardized DALYs and death rates of diabetes mellitus attributable to LPA were substantially increased [EAPC: 0.76% (95% CI: 0.70-0.82%) for DALYs and 0.33% (95% CI: 0.21-0.51%) for deaths]. In the 15-49 age group, DALPA presented significant upward trends [EAPC: 0.74% (95% CI: 0.58-0.91%) for DALYs and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.1-0.51%) for deaths]. The GLM revealed that higher gross domestic product and current health expenditure (% of GDP) were negatively associated with DALYs and death rates of DALPA.

Conclusion

Although global age-standardized DALYs and death rates of DALPA presented downward trends, they still cause a heavy burden worldwide. These rates showed upward trends in the diabetic and 15-49 age groups, which need more attention and health interventions.

The Global Incidence, Mortality, and Burden of Breast Cancer in 2019: Correlation With Smoking, Drinking, and Drug Use

Background

Female breast cancer (FBC) is the most common type of cancer and is associated with a considerable disease burden as well as significant mortality rates. The present study aimed to provide an update on the incidence, mortality, and burden of FBC in 2019, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study.

Materials

The incidence, death rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), the age-standardized rates (ASR) of FBC in 204 countries, and a variety of classifications, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Data on tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and drug use were collected. The incidence, mortality, and burden of FBC were registered and compared between regions. Associations between age-standardized incidence rates and age-standardized mortality rates of FBC with smoking, drinking, and drug use were determined.

Results

The highest incidence of FBC was observed in countries with a high socioeconomic status such as those of the European continent. Despite the lower incidence of FBC in countries with a low socio-demographic index (SDI), mortality rates secondary to FBC are higher in these countries than in high-income countries. The highest age-standardized mortality rate has been reported in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO), followed by the African Region (AFRO). The highest age-standardized rates of DALY and YLL per 100,000 population in 2019 were observed in lower-income countries, while the highest ASR of YLD per 100,000 population was reported in high-income countries.

Conclusion

The present GBD-based study provides a comprehensive review of the incidence, mortality, and burden of FBC in 2019. The incidence of FBC is higher in regions with a higher socioeconomic status, whereas mortality rates and DALYs are higher in poorly developed regions. We suggest better screening measures and early detection programs for the latter regions.