Arenavirus infection correlates with lower survival of its natural rodent host in a long-term capture-mark-recapture study

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

Twenty-nine years of continuous monthly capture-mark-recapture data of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) in Morogoro, Tanzania

The multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) is the most-studied rodent species in sub-Saharan Africa, where it is an important pest species in agriculture and carrier of zoonotic diseases (e.g. Lassa virus). Here, we provide a unique dataset that consists of twenty-nine years of continuous monthly capture-mark-recapture entries on one 3 ha mosaic field (MOSA) in Morogoro, Tanzania. It is one of the most accurate and long-running capture-recapture time series on a small mammal species worldwide and unique to Africa. The database can be used by ecologists to test hypotheses on the population dynamics of small mammals (e.g. to test the effect of climate change), or to validate new algorithms on real long-term field data (e.g. new survival analyses techniques). It is also useful for both scientists and decision-makers who want to optimize rodent control strategies and predict outbreaks of multimammate mice.

RIG-I and MDA5 Protect Mice From Pichinde Virus Infection by Controlling Viral Replication and Regulating Immune Responses to the Infection

RIG-I and MDA5 are major cytoplasmic innate-immune sensor proteins that recognize aberrant double-stranded RNAs generated during virus infection to activate type 1 interferon (IFN-I) and IFN-stimulated gene (ISG) expressions to control virus infection. The roles of RIG-I and MDA5 in controlling replication of Pichinde virus (PICV), a mammarenavirus, in mice have not been examined. Here, we showed that MDA5 single knockout (SKO) and RIG-I/MDA5 double knockout (DKO) mice are highly susceptible to PICV infection as evidenced by their significant reduction in body weights during the course of the infection, validating the important roles of these innate-immune sensor proteins in controlling PICV infection. Compared to the wildtype mice, SKO and DKO mice infected with PICV had significantly higher virus titers and lower IFN-I expressions early in the infection but appeared to exhibit a late and heightened level of adaptive immune responses to clear the infection. When a recombinant rPICV mutant virus (rPICV-NPmut) that lacks the ability to suppress IFN-I was used to infect mice, as expected, there were heightened levels of IFN-I and ISG expressions in the wild-type mice, whereas infected SKO and DKO mice showed delayed mouse growth kinetics and relatively low, delayed, and transient levels of innate and adaptive immune responses to this viral infection. Taken together, our data suggest that PICV infection triggers activation of immune sensors that include but might not be necessarily limited to RIG-I and MDA5 to stimulate effective innate and adaptive immune responses to control virus infection in mice.

Linking Behavior, Co-infection Patterns, and Viral Infection Risk With the Whole Gastrointestinal Helminth Community Structure in Mastomys natalensis

Infection probability, load, and community structure of helminths varies strongly between and within animal populations. This can be ascribed to environmental stochasticity or due to individual characteristics of the host such as their age or sex. Other, but understudied, factors are the hosts' behavior and co-infection patterns. In this study, we used the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to investigate how the hosts' sex, age, exploration behavior, and viral infection history affects their infection risk, parasitic load, and community structure of gastrointestinal helminths. We hypothesized that the hosts' exploration behavior would play a key role in the risk for infection by different gastrointestinal helminths, whereby highly explorative individuals would have a higher infection risk leading to a wider diversity of helminths and a larger load compared to less explorative individuals. Fieldwork was performed in Morogoro, Tanzania, where we trapped a total of 214 individual mice. Their exploratory behavior was characterized using a hole-board test after which we collected the helminths inside their gastrointestinal tract. During our study, we found helminths belonging to eight different genera: Hymenolepis sp., Protospirura muricola, Syphacia sp., Trichuris mastomysi, Gongylonema sp., Pterygodermatites sp., Raillietina sp., and Inermicapsifer sp. and one family: Trichostrongylidae. Hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) was used to investigate the effect of the different host-related factors on the infection probability, parasite load, and community structure of these helminths. Our results show that species richness was higher in adults and in females compared to juveniles and males, respectively. Contrary to our expectations, we found that less explorative individuals had higher infection probability with different helminths resulting in a higher diversity, which could be due to a higher exposure rate to these helminths and/or behavioral modification due to the infection.

The effects of personality on survival and trappability in a wild mouse during a population cycle

The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) theory provides an evolutionary explanation for the existence of consistent among-individual variation in behaviour, or animal personality. Herein, individuals with a fast lifestyle are considered to be bolder and should take more risks resulting in a lower life expectancy compared to shyer individuals with a slower lifestyle. However, this assumption depends on the levels of intra-specific competition that the individuals experience which has rarely been tested in species that experience large changes in competition on a very short time scale. We used the multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to study the POLS assumption by investigating the effects of two personality traits (exploration and stress-sensitivity) on survival, maturation (a proxy for reproductive investment) and recapture probability during one population cycle (N_individuals = 201). Such a cycle consists of two phases in which the levels of intra-specific competition vary drastically. We found that only one personality trait, namely stress-sensitivity, had a negative effect on both survival and recapture probability but none of them affected maturation. This suggests that less stress-sensitive individuals take more risks in the wild and have a higher survival probability compared to high stress-sensitive individuals. However, the effect of personality on survival was only present during the population decrease phase, when the levels of intra-specific competition are high due to a scarcity of food. This suggests that seasonal changes in competition might be important in the evolution and maintenance of animal personalities in species whose population dynamics have a clear seasonal component.

Effects of forest disturbance on the fitness of an endemic rodent in a biodiversity hotspot

Praomys delectorum occurs abundantly in both disturbed and intact forests in the Ukaguru Mountains within the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), Morogoro, Tanzania. While previous studies have reported that anthropogenic disturbances such as grazing, wood cutting, and harvesting have a positive effect on the population density of P. delectorum, the impact of habitat disturbance on its demographic traits is still unknown. We performed a capture-mark-recapture study in both disturbed and intact forests from June 2018 to February 2020 in order to investigate the effects of habitat disturbance on abundance and two demographic traits: survival and maturation of P. delectorum in the Ukaguru Mountains. We found no variation in abundance or maturation between intact and disturbed forests, but habitat type did affect survival. However, this effect was sex-dependent since female survival was higher in disturbed forests, while male survival remained similar across the two forest types potentially due to differences in predation pressure or food availability between the two habitats. Continuous demographic monitoring of P. delectorum in EAM is necessary given that the increasing human population surrounding the landscape is leading to higher deforestation rates and expansion of the pine plantation in the forest reserve.

Immunity, parasites, genetics and sex hormones: contributors to mild inflammatory responses in COVID-19?

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has killed over two hundred thousand people by end of April, 2020. America and Europe top in deaths from COVID-19 whereas the numbers are lower in Africa for unclear reasons. Emerging evidence suggests the role of hyperactive immune responses characterised by high pro-inflammatory cytokines in severe cases of COVID-19 and deaths. In this perspective, we explore the possible factors that may contribute to mild inflammatory responses in some cases of COVID-19 by focusing on immune education, parasites, sex hormones and chronic diseases, as well as genetic tolerance. To build our perspective, evidence is also extracted from wild rodents due to their multi-tasking immune responses as a result of constant exposure to pathogens.

Fitness of the pestiferous small rodent Mastomys natalensis in an agroecosystem in Mayuge district, Lake Victoria Crescent, Uganda

A 2.5-year study was conducted to understand the fitness of Mastomys natalensis in an agroecosystem in relationship with environmental predictors. The study was conducted in Mayuge district, in the Lake Victoria Crescent zone in Eastern Uganda. Fitness was measured in terms of survival, maturation and capture probability and estimated using multi-event capture-recapture models. Survival rates were higher after high rainfall in the previous month and increased with increasing population density of the animals. Maturation rate, on the other hand, showed no significant association with any predictor variables, while capture probability was significantly associated with sex of the animals, with higher capture probability for males. The results demonstrate that the fitness of M. natalensis in an agroecosystem is dependent on rainfall, sex and current population density. The aforementioned results were associated with increasing vegetation which provides cover for animal nesting and abundant food for the animals during rainfall periods and thus increased survival, high mobility in males in search for mates thus exposing animals to high chances of being captured and increased prey saturation at high population density resulting in high animal survival. These results have important implications for the timing of management strategies, i.e. control efforts should be enforced during the rainfall seasons to prevent high population buildup in the succeeding seasons.

When to vaccinate a fluctuating wildlife population: Is timing everything?

Wildlife vaccination is an important tool for managing the burden of infectious disease in human populations, domesticated livestock and various iconic wildlife. Although substantial progress has been made in the field of vaccine designs for wildlife, there is a gap in our understanding of how to time wildlife vaccination, relative to host demography, to best protect a population.We use a mathematical model and computer simulations to assess the outcomes of vaccination campaigns that deploy vaccines once per annual population cycle.Optimal timing of vaccination is an important consideration in animals with short to intermediate life spans and a short birthing season. Vaccines that are deployed shortly after the birthing season best protect the host population.The importance of timing is greater in wildlife pathogens that have a high rate of transmission and a short recovery period. Vaccinating at the end of the birthing season best reduces the mean abundance of pathogen-infected hosts. Delaying vaccination until later in the year can facilitate pathogen elimination. Policy Implications. Tuning wildlife vaccination campaigns to host demography and pathogen traits can substantially increase the effectiveness of a campaign. Our results suggest that, for a fluctuating population, vaccinating at, or shortly after, the end of the birthing season, best protects the population against an invading pathogen. If the pathogen is already endemic, delaying vaccination until after the birthing season is over can help facilitate pathogen elimination. Our results highlight the need to better understand and predict host demography in wildlife populations that are targeted for vaccination.

Next-generation serology: integrating cross-sectional and capture-recapture approaches to infer disease dynamics

Two approaches have been classically used in disease ecology to estimate epidemiological parameters from field studies: cross-sectional sampling from unmarked individuals and longitudinal capture-recapture setups, which generally involve more limited numbers of marked individuals due to cost and logistical constraints. Although the benefits of longitudinal setups are increasingly acknowledged in the disease ecology community, cross-sectional data remain largely overrepresented in the literature, probably because of the inherent costs of longitudinal surveys. In this context, we used simulated data to compare the performances of cross-sectional and longitudinal designs to estimate the force of infection (i.e., the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected). Then, inspired from recent method developments in quantitative ecology, we explore the benefits of integrating both cross-sectional (seroprevalences) and longitudinal (individuals histories) data sets. In doing so, we investigate the effects of host species life history, antibody persistence, and degree of a priori knowledge and uncertainty on demographic and epidemiological parameters, as those are expected to affect in different ways the level of inference possible from the data. Our results highlight how those elements are important to consider in determining optimal sampling designs. In the case of long-lived species exposed to infectious agents resulting in persistent antibody responses, integrated designs are especially valuable as they benefit from the performances of longitudinal designs even with relatively small longitudinal sample sizes. As an illustration, we apply this approach to a combination of empirical and simulated data inspired from a case of bats exposed to a rabies virus. Overall, this work highlights that serology field studies could greatly benefit from the opportunity of integrating cross-sectional and longitudinal designs.

Density dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host

A key aim in wildlife disease ecology is to understand how host and parasite characteristics influence parasite transmission and persistence. Variation in host population density can have strong impacts on transmission and outbreaks, and theory predicts particular transmission-density patterns depending on how parasites are transmitted between individuals. Here, we present the results of a study on the dynamics of Morogoro arenavirus in a population of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis). This widespread African rodent, which is also the reservoir host of Lassa arenavirus in West Africa, is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations driven by food availability. We investigated to what degree virus transmission changes with host population density and how the virus might be able to persist during periods of low host density. A seven-year capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in Tanzania where rodents were trapped monthly and screened for the presence of antibodies against Morogoro virus. Observed seasonal seroprevalence patterns were compared with those generated by mathematical transmission models to test different hypotheses regarding the degree of density dependence and the role of chronically infected individuals. We observed that Morogoro virus seroprevalence correlates positively with host density with a lag of 1-4 months. Model results suggest that the observed seasonal seroprevalence dynamics can be best explained by a combination of vertical and horizontal transmission and that a small number of animals need to be infected chronically to ensure viral persistence. Transmission dynamics and viral persistence were best explained by the existence of both acutely and chronically infected individuals and by seasonally changing transmission rates. Due to the presence of chronically infected rodents, rodent control is unlikely to be a feasible approach for eliminating arenaviruses such as Lassa virus from Mastomys populations.

Relationship between population density and viral infection: A role for personality?

Conspecific density and animal personality (consistent among-individual differences in behavior) may both play an important role in disease ecology. Nevertheless, both factors have rarely been studied together but may provide insightful information in understanding pathogen transmission dynamics. In this study, we investigated how both personality and density affect viral infections both direct and indirectly, using the multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) and Morogoro arenavirus (MORV) as a model system. Using a replicated semi-natural experiment, we found a positive correlation between MORV antibody presence and density, suggesting that MORV infection is density-dependent. Surprisingly, slower explorers were more likely to have antibodies against MORV compared to highly explorative individuals. However, exploration was positively correlated with density which may suggest a negative, indirect effect of density on MORV infection. We have shown here that in order to better understand disease ecology, both personality and density should be taken into account.

Hemorrhagic Fever-Causing Arenaviruses: Lethal Pathogens and Potent Immune Suppressors

Hemorrhagic fevers (HF) resulting from pathogenic arenaviral infections have traditionally been neglected as tropical diseases primarily affecting African and South American regions. There are currently no FDA-approved vaccines for arenaviruses, and treatments have been limited to supportive therapy and use of non-specific nucleoside analogs, such as Ribavirin. Outbreaks of arenaviral infections have been limited to certain geographic areas that are endemic but known cases of exportation of arenaviruses from endemic regions and socioeconomic challenges for local control of rodent reservoirs raise serious concerns about the potential for larger outbreaks in the future. This review synthesizes current knowledge about arenaviral evolution, ecology, transmission patterns, life cycle, modulation of host immunity, disease pathogenesis, as well as discusses recent development of preventative and therapeutic pursuits against this group of deadly viral pathogens.