Biological function integrated prediction of severe radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a nested case control study

Advancing precision rheumatology: applications of machine learning for rheumatoid arthritis management

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease causing progressive joint damage. Early diagnosis and treatment is critical, but remains challenging due to RA complexity and heterogeneity. Machine learning (ML) techniques may enhance RA management by identifying patterns within multidimensional biomedical data to improve classification, diagnosis, and treatment predictions. In this review, we summarize the applications of ML for RA management. Emerging studies or applications have developed diagnostic and predictive models for RA that utilize a variety of data modalities, including electronic health records, imaging, and multi-omics data. High-performance supervised learning models have demonstrated an Area Under the Curve (AUC) exceeding 0.85, which is used for identifying RA patients and predicting treatment responses. Unsupervised learning has revealed potential RA subtypes. Ongoing research is integrating multimodal data with deep learning to further improve performance. However, key challenges remain regarding model overfitting, generalizability, validation in clinical settings, and interpretability. Small sample sizes and lack of diverse population testing risks overestimating model performance. Prospective studies evaluating real-world clinical utility are lacking. Enhancing model interpretability is critical for clinician acceptance. In summary, while ML shows promise for transforming RA management through earlier diagnosis and optimized treatment, larger scale multisite data, prospective clinical validation of interpretable models, and testing across diverse populations is still needed. As these gaps are addressed, ML may pave the way towards precision medicine in RA.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Predict the Use of Surgery in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

OBJECTIVE

One in five patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) rely on surgery to restore joint function. However, variable response to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) complicates surgical planning, and it is difficult to predict which patients may ultimately require surgery. We used machine learning to develop predictive models for the likelihood of undergoing an operation related to RA and which type of operation patients who require surgery undergo.

METHODS

We used electronic health record data to train two extreme gradient boosting machine learning models. The first model predicted patients' probabilities of undergoing surgery ≥5 years after their initial clinic visit. The second model predicted whether patients who underwent surgery would undergo a major joint replacement versus a less intensive procedure. Predictors included demographics, comorbidities, and medication data. The primary outcome was model discrimination, measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

We identified 5,481 patients, of whom 278 (5.1%) underwent surgery. There was no significant difference in the frequency of DMARD or steroid prescriptions between patients who did and did not have surgery, though nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug prescriptions were more common among patients who did have surgery (P = 0.03). The model predicting use of surgery had an AUC of 0.90 ± 0.02. The model predicting type of surgery had an AUC of 0.58 ± 0.10.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive models using clinical data have the potential to facilitate identification of patients who may undergo rheumatoid-related surgery, but not what type of procedure they will need. Integrating similar models into practice has the potential to improve surgical planning.

Artificial Intelligence in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Current Status and Future Perspectives: A State-of-the-Art Review

Investigation of the potential applications of artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques, is an exponentially growing field in medicine and healthcare. These methods can be critical in providing high-quality care to patients with chronic rheumatological diseases lacking an optimal treatment, like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), which is the second most prevalent autoimmune disease. Herein, following reviewing the basic concepts of AI, we summarize the advances in its applications in RA clinical practice and research. We provide directions for future investigations in this field after reviewing the current knowledge gaps and technical and ethical challenges in applying AI. Automated models have been largely used to improve RA diagnosis since the early 2000s, and they have used a wide variety of techniques, e.g., support vector machine, random forest, and artificial neural networks. AI algorithms can facilitate screening and identification of susceptible groups, diagnosis using omics, imaging, clinical, and sensor data, patient detection within electronic health record (EHR), i.e., phenotyping, treatment response assessment, monitoring disease course, determining prognosis, novel drug discovery, and enhancing basic science research. They can also aid in risk assessment for incidence of comorbidities, e.g., cardiovascular diseases, in patients with RA. However, the proposed models may vary significantly in their performance and reliability. Despite the promising results achieved by AI models in enhancing early diagnosis and management of patients with RA, they are not fully ready to be incorporated into clinical practice. Future investigations are required to ensure development of reliable and generalizable algorithms while they carefully look for any potential source of bias or misconduct. We showed that a growing body of evidence supports the potential role of AI in revolutionizing screening, diagnosis, and management of patients with RA. However, multiple obstacles hinder clinical applications of AI models. Incorporating the machine and/or deep learning algorithms into real-world settings would be a key step in the progress of AI in medicine.

Machine learning approaches for the genomic prediction of rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) are autoimmune rheumatic diseases that share a complex genetic background and common clinical features. This study's purpose was to construct machine learning (ML) models for the genomic prediction of RA and SLE.

METHODS

A total of 2,094 patients with RA and 2,190 patients with SLE were enrolled from the Taichung Veterans General Hospital cohort of the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data were obtained using Taiwan Biobank version 2 array. The ML methods used were logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), gradient tree boosting (GTB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values were calculated to clarify the contribution of each SNPs. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) imputation was performed using the HLA Genotype Imputation with Attribute Bagging package.

RESULTS

Compared with LR (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.8247), the RF approach (AUC = 0.9844), SVM (AUC = 0.9828), GTB (AUC = 0.9932), and XGB (AUC = 0.9919) exhibited significantly better prediction performance. The top 20 genes by feature importance and SHAP values included HLA class II alleles. We found that imputed HLA-DQA1*05:01, DQB1*0201 and DRB1*0301 were associated with SLE; HLA-DQA1*03:03, DQB1*0401, DRB1*0405 were more frequently observed in patients with RA.

CONCLUSIONS

We established ML methods for genomic prediction of RA and SLE. Genetic variations at HLA-DQA1, HLA-DQB1, and HLA-DRB1 were crucial for differentiating RA from SLE. Future studies are required to verify our results and explore their mechanistic explanation.

Machine learning approaches to improve disease management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis: review and future directions

INTRODUCTION

Although the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has improved in major way over the last decades, this disease still leads to an important burden for patients and society, and there is a need to develop more personalized approaches. Machine learning (ML) methods are more and more used in health-related studies and can be applied to different sorts of data (clinical, radiological, or 'omics' data). Such approaches may improve the management of patients with RA.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we propose a review regarding ML approaches applied to RA. A scoping literature search was performed in PubMed, in September 2021 using the following MeSH terms: 'arthritis, rheumatoid' and 'machine learning'. Based on this search, the usefulness of ML methods for RA diagnosis, monitoring, and prediction of response to treatment and RA outcomes, is discussed.

EXPERT OPINION

ML methods have the potential to revolutionize RA-related research and improve disease management and patient care. Nevertheless, these models are not yet ready to contribute fully to rheumatologists' daily practice. Indeed, these methods raise technical, methodological, and ethical issues, which should be addressed properly to allow their implementation. Collaboration between data scientists, clinical researchers, and physicians is therefore required to move this field forward.

Molecular and Cellular Heterogeneity in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Mechanisms and Clinical Implications

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that exhibits significant clinical heterogeneity. There are various treatments for rheumatoid arthritis, including disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), glucocorticoids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and inflammatory cytokine inhibitors (ICI), typically associated with differentiated clinical effects and characteristics. Personalized responsiveness is observed to the standard treatment due to the pathophysiological heterogeneity in rheumatoid arthritis, resulting in an overall poor prognosis. Understanding the role of individual variation in cellular and molecular mechanisms related to rheumatoid arthritis will considerably improve clinical care and patient outcomes. In this review, we discuss the source of pathophysiological heterogeneity derived from genetic, molecular, and cellular heterogeneity and their possible impact on precision medicine and personalized treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. We provide emphasized description of the heterogeneity derived from mast cells, monocyte cell, macrophage fibroblast-like synoviocytes and, interactions within immune cells and with inflammatory cytokines, as well as the potential as a new therapeutic target to develop a novel treatment approach. Finally, we summarize the latest clinical trials of treatment options for rheumatoid arthritis and provide a suggestive framework for implementing preclinical and clinical experimental results into clinical practice.

Personalized prediction of disease activity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using an adaptive deep neural network

Background

Deep neural networks learn from former experiences on a large scale and can be used to predict future disease activity as potential clinical decision support. AdaptiveNet is a novel adaptive recurrent neural network optimized to deal with heterogeneous and missing clinical data.

Objective

We investigate AdaptiveNet for the prediction of individual disease activity in patients from a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) registry.

Methods

Demographic and disease characteristics from over 9500 patients and 65.000 visits from the Swiss Quality Management (SCQM) database were used to train and evaluate the network. Patient characteristics, clinical and patient reported outcomes, laboratory values and medication were used as input features. DAS28-BSR served as a target to predict active RA and future numeric individual disease activity by classification and regression.

Results

AdaptiveNet predicted active disease defined as DAS28-BSR >2.6 at the next visit with an overall accuracy of 75.6% (SD +- 0.7%) and a sensitivity and specificity of 84.2% (SD +- 1.6%) and 61.5% (SD +- 3.6%), respectively. Prediction performance was significantly higher in patients with a disease duration >3 years and positive rheumatoid factor. Regression allowed forecasting individual DAS28-BSR values with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.9 (SD +- 0.05). This corresponds to a 8% deviation between estimated and real DAS28-BSR values. Compared to linear regression, random forest and support vector machines, AdaptiveNet showed an increased performance of over 7% in MSE. Medication played a minor role in the prediction of RA disease activity.

Conclusion

AdaptiveNet has a superior capacity to predict numeric RA disease activity compared to classical machine learning architectures. All investigated models had limitations in low specificity.

A systematic review of the applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning in autoimmune diseases

Autoimmune diseases are chronic, multifactorial conditions. Through machine learning (ML), a branch of the wider field of artificial intelligence, it is possible to extract patterns within patient data, and exploit these patterns to predict patient outcomes for improved clinical management. Here, we surveyed the use of ML methods to address clinical problems in autoimmune disease. A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, embase and computers and applied sciences complete databases. Relevant papers included "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence" and the autoimmune diseases search term(s) in their title, abstract or key words. Exclusion criteria: studies not written in English, no real human patient data included, publication prior to 2001, studies that were not peer reviewed, non-autoimmune disease comorbidity research and review papers. 169 (of 702) studies met the criteria for inclusion. Support vector machines and random forests were the most popular ML methods used. ML models using data on multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease were most common. A small proportion of studies (7.7% or 13/169) combined different data types in the modelling process. Cross-validation, combined with a separate testing set for more robust model evaluation occurred in 8.3% of papers (14/169). The field may benefit from adopting a best practice of validation, cross-validation and independent testing of ML models. Many models achieved good predictive results in simple scenarios (e.g. classification of cases and controls). Progression to more complex predictive models may be achievable in future through integration of multiple data types.

Comparison of methods to construct a genetic risk score for prediction of rheumatoid arthritis in the population-based Nord-Trøndelag Health Study, Norway

Objectives

To evaluate selection methods among published single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with RA to construct predictive genetic risk scores (GRSs) in a population-based setting.

Methods

The Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study is a prospective cohort study among the whole adult population of northern Trøndelag, Norway. Participants in HUNT2 (1995–1997) and HUNT3 (2006–2008) were included (489 RA cases, 61 584 controls). The initial SNP selection from relevant genome-wide studies included 269 SNPs from 30 studies. Following different selection criteria, SNPs were weighted by published odds ratios. The sum of each person’s carriage of all weighted susceptibility variants was calculated for each GRS.

Results

The best-fitting risk score included 27 SNPs [weighted genetic risk score 27 (wGRS27)] and was identified using P-value selection criterion ≤5 × 10−8, the largest possible SNP selection without high linkage disequilibrium (r2 < 0.8), and lasso regression to select for positive coefficients. In a logistic regression model adjusted for gender, age and ever smoking, wGRS27 was associated with RA [odds ratio 1.86 (95% CI 1.71, 2.04) for each s.d. increase, P < 0.001]. The AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.74, 0.78). The positive and negative predictive values were 1.6% and 99.7%, respectively, and the positive predictive value was not improved in sensitivity analyses subselecting participants to illustrate settings with increased RA prevalences. Other schemes selected more SNPs but resulted in GRSs with lower predictive ability.

Conclusion

Constructing a wGRS based on a smaller selection of informative SNPs improved predictive ability. Even with a relatively high AUC, the low PPV illustrates that there was a large overlap in risk variants among RA patients and controls, precluding clinical usefulness.

'RA and the microbiome: do host genetic factors provide the link?

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease, characterised by painful synovium inflammation, bony erosions, immune activation and the circulation of autoantibodies. Despite recent advances in therapeutics enabling disease suppression, there is a considerable demand for alternative therapeutic strategies as well as optimising those available at present. The relatively low concordance rate between monozygotic twins, 20–30% contrasts with heritability estimates of ∼65%, indicating a substantive role of other risk factors in RA pathogenesis. There is established evidence that RA has an infective component to its aetiology. More recently, differences in the commensal microbiota in RA compared to controls have been identified. Studies have shown that the gut, oral and lung microbiota is different in new onset treatment naïve, and established RA patients, compared to controls. Key taxonomic associations are an increase in abundance of Porphyromonas gingivalis and Prevotella copri in RA patients, compared to healthy controls. Host genetics may provide the link between disease and the microbiome. Genetic influence may be mediated by the host immune system; a differential response to RA associated taxa is suggested. The gut microbiome contains elements which are as much as 30% heritable. A better understanding of the influence of host genetics will shed light onto the role of the microbiome in RA. Here we review the role of the microbiome in RA through the lens of host genetics, and consider future research areas addressing microbiome study design and bioinformatics approaches.

•

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects 1% of the population and is highly debilitating.

•

RA is ~65% heritable, yet the concordance rate between monozygotic twins is just 20–30%, indicating a substantive role of other risk factors.

•

Studies have shown that the gut, oral and lung microbiome is different in treatment naïve and established RA patients, compared to controls.

•

Current findings suggest an important influence of host genetics on the microbiome, which may contribute to RA via the host immune system.

•

Associations of the microbiome with RA described thus far are confounded by host genetics, and future studies need to take account of this.

Genetic-Driven Druggable Target Identification and Validation

Choosing the right biological target is the critical primary decision for the development of new drugs. Systematic genetic association testing of both human diseases and quantitative traits, along with resultant findings of coincident associations between them, is becoming a powerful approach to infer drug targetable candidates and generate in vitro tests to identify compounds that can modulate them therapeutically. Here, we discuss opportunities and challenges, and infer criteria for the optimal use of genetic findings in the drug discovery pipeline.