Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Connecting the dots: An updated review of the role of autoimmunity in narcolepsy and emerging immunotherapeutic approaches

BACKGROUND

Narcolepsy type 1 (NT1) is a chronic disorder characterized by pathological daytime sleepiness and cataplexy due to the disappearance of orexin immunoreactive neurons in the hypothalamus. Genetic and environmental factors point towards a potential role for inflammation and autoimmunity in the pathogenesis of the disease. This study aims to comprehensively review the latest evidence on the autoinflammatory mechanisms and immunomodulatory treatments aimed at suspected autoimmune pathways in NT1.

METHODS

Recent relevant literature in the field of narcolepsy, its autoimmune hypothesis, and purposed immunomodulatory treatments were reviewed.

RESULTS

Narcolepsy is strongly linked to specific HLA alleles and T-cell receptor polymorphisms. Furthermore, animal studies and autopsies have found infiltration of T cells in the hypothalamus, supporting T cell-mediated immunity. However, the role of autoantibodies has yet to be definitively established. Increased risk of NT1 after H1N1 infection and vaccination supports the autoimmune hypothesis, and the potential role of coronavirus disease 2019 and vaccination in triggering autoimmune neurodegeneration is a recent finding. Alterations in cytokine levels, gut microbiota, and microglial activation indicate a potential role for inflammation in the disease's development. Reports of using immunotherapies in NT1 patients are limited and inconsistent. Early treatment with IVIg, corticosteroids, plasmapheresis, and monoclonal antibodies has seldomly shown some potential benefits in some studies.

CONCLUSION

The current body of literature supports that narcolepsy is an autoimmune disorder most likely caused by T-cell involvement. However, the potential for immunomodulatory treatments to reverse the autoinflammatory process remains understudied. Further clinical controlled trials may provide valuable insights into this area.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050.

Methods

Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts.

Findings

Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431-564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9-129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192-253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107-124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964-1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9-49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65-69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4-60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600-91 600).

Interpretation

Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.

Methods

In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model.

Findings

Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling.

Interpretation

Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Effect of famotidine on cognitive and behavioral dysfunctions induced in post-COVID-19 infection: A randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled study

OBJECTIVES

This is an investigation of the efficacy and safety of famotidine, a selective histamine H2 receptor antagonist, on improvement of cognitive impairment, depression and anxiety symptoms developing post-COVID-19, in a 12-week, randomized controlled trial.

METHODS

A total of 50 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 and a score ≤ 23 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) test or a score ≤ 22 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) were randomly assigned to either the famotidine (40 mg twice daily) or the placebo group. Changes in MMSE scores at weeks 6 and 12 were the primary outcome, while changes in other scales were the secondary outcomes. Participants and evaluators were blinded.

RESULTS

At weeks 6 and 12, patients in the famotidine group had significantly higher MMSE scores (p = 0.014, p < 0.001, respectively). Regarding the MoCA scale, the famotidine group had a significantly higher score at weeks 6 and 12 (p = 0.001, p < 0.001, respectively). Considering the HAM-D scale (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale), at weeks 6 and 12, the famotidine group experienced a larger reduction (p = 0.009, p = 0.02, respectively). Additionally, comparison of the HAM-A scale scores (Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale) at weeks 6 and 12 showed a statistically significant larger reduction in the famotidine group (p = 0.04, p = 0.02, respectively). The two groups did not differ in the frequency of adverse effects.

CONCLUSION

Our study supports safety and efficacy of famotidine in treating cognitive impairment, depression and anxiety symptoms induced by COVID-19.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was registered at the Iranian registry of clinical trials (IRCT: www.irct.ir; registration number: IRCT20090117001556N138).

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in advanced cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of efficacy and review of characteristics

OBJECTIVES

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are one of the most promising approaches toward advanced melanoma. Here, we aimed to perform a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the efficacy of all studied ICIs.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search to identify the relevant publications (PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42023470649). Then we performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of different ICIs for metastatic melanoma. We used Cochrane's tool to assess the quality of studies. The outcome measures were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

Twenty reports of RCTs entered our systematic review, 18 of which were included in our data analysis. ICIs showed improved survival compared with control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.43-0.71; P<0.001). Using a meta-regression, we found a significant relation between patients' mean age and their OS (P<0.001, R 2  = 100.00%). Also, our analysis revealed greater HR for CTLA-4 inhibitors than PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors (HR = 0.71, 95%CI: 0.63-0.79, P<0.001 vs. HR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.46-0.79, P<0.001). The effect sizes of different types of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors were comparable.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that ICI-based immunotherapy is associated with enhanced OS, PFS, and RFS (P < 0.001) and will assist clinicians in choosing the optimal approach toward treating metastatic melanoma.

Direct Mechanical Thrombectomy Versus Prior Bridging Intravenous Thrombolysis in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The current guideline recommends using an intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator (IV tPA) prior to mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in eligible acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with emergent large vessel occlusion (ELVO). Some recent studies found no significant differences in the long-term functional outcomes between bridging therapy (BT, i.e., IV tPA prior to MT) and direct MT (dMT).

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the safety and functional outcomes between BT and dMT in AIS patients with ELVO who were eligible for IV tPA administration. Based on the ELVO location, patients were categorized as the anterior group (occlusion of the anterior circulation), or the combined group (occlusion of the anterior and/or posterior circulation). A subgroup analysis was performed based on the study type, i.e., RCT and non-RCT.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies (3985 patients) matched the eligibility criteria. Comparing the BT and dMT groups, no significant differences in terms of mortality and good functional outcome were observed at 90 days. Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhagic (sICH) events were more frequent in BT patients in the combined group (OR = 0.73, p = 0.02); this result remained significant only in the non-RCT subgroup (OR = 0.67, p = 0.03). The RCT subgroup had a significantly higher rate of successful revascularization in BT patients (OR = 0.73, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis uncovered no significant differences in functional outcome and mortality rate at 90 days between dMT and BT in patients with AIS who had ELVO. Although BT performed better in terms of successful recanalization rate, there is a risk of increased sICH rate in this group.

COVID-19 and MAFLD/NAFLD: An updated review

The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing and places a substantial burden on healthcare systems worldwide. As we further shed light on different disease characteristics, we identify more and more groups of people at higher risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes. Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) (previously non-alcoholic fatty liver disease or NAFLD) is a common metabolic disorder characterized by fat accumulation and liver fibrosis. Given its close correlation with metabolic syndrome, an established risk factor for severe COVID-19, it is necessary to investigate its interplay with the novel coronavirus. In this study, we review the available data on COVID-19 prognosis, treatment and prevention options in patients with MAFLD, and the effect that the disease and the pandemic have on MAFLD care. Furthermore, we point out the gaps in the current literature to accentuate the work that needs to be done to improve MAFLD care during the pandemic and beyond.

The clinical significance of biliary findings in magnetic resonance enterography of patients with inflammatory bowel disease

PURPOSE

Given the association of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), we aimed to investigate the clinical relevance of abnormal hepatobiliary findings on magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) of IBD patients considering the risk of over- or underestimation of PSC at MRE.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Using the MRE dataset of patients referring to a tertiary hospital and the National Registry of Crohn's and Colitis, 69 MREs, including 23 IBD-PSC, 23 IBD-without PSC, and 23 healthy controls (HC), were retrospectively reviewed by 2 experienced radiologists blinded to the clinical data, to evaluate hepatobiliary abnormalities. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated.

RESULTS

Bile duct irregularities were the most common finding in the IBD-PSC group, with a frequency of 91%. Intra- and extrahepatic bile duct (IHBD and EHBD) irregularities were observed in 87% and 78% of PSC patients, respectively. Higher frequency of IHBD and EHBD wall thickening, bile duct dilation, EHBD stricture, and periportal oedema were observed in the IBD-PSC group. Peribiliary T2-weighted hyperintensities and contrast-enhancement were significantly more common in the IBD-PSC group than in the IBD and HC groups (48% and 35%, respectively) (p < 0.001). Detection of biliary irregularities on MRE had a specificity of 94% (95% CI: 82-99%), a sensitivity of 91% (95% CI: 72-99%), and a positive likelihood ratio of 14.0 (95% CI: 4.7-42.1) for the diagnosis of PSC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasizes the importance of assessing and reporting hepatobiliary abnormalities visible in the MRE of patients with IBD to avoid a delayed diagnosis of PSC.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Imaging of intestinal vasculitis focusing on MR and CT enterography: a two-way street between radiologic findings and clinical data

Diagnosis of intestinal vasculitis is often challenging due to the non-specific clinical and imaging findings. Vasculitides with gastrointestinal (GI) manifestations are rare, but their diagnosis holds immense significance as late or missed recognition can result in high mortality rates. Given the resemblance of radiologic findings with some other entities, GI vasculitis is often overlooked on small bowel studies done using computed tomography/magnetic resonance enterography (CTE/MRE). Hereon, we reviewed radiologic findings of vasculitis with gastrointestinal involvement on CTE and MRE. The variety of findings on MRE/CTE depend upon the size of the involved vessels. Signs of intestinal ischemia, e.g., mural thickening, submucosal edema, mural hyperenhancement, and restricted diffusion on diffusion-weighted imaging, are common in intestinal vasculitis. Involvement of the abdominal aorta and the major visceral arteries is presented as concentric mural thickening, transmural calcification, luminal stenosis, occlusion, aneurysmal changes, and collateral vessels. Such findings can be observed particularly in large- and medium-vessel vasculitis. The presence of extra-intestinal findings, including within the liver, kidneys, or spleen in the form of focal areas of infarction or heterogeneous enhancement due to microvascular involvement, can be another radiologic clue in diagnosis of vasculitis. The link between the clinical/laboratory findings and MRE/CTE abnormalities needs to be corresponded when it comes to the diagnosis of intestinal vasculitis.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Artificial Intelligence in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Current Status and Future Perspectives: A State-of-the-Art Review

Investigation of the potential applications of artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques, is an exponentially growing field in medicine and healthcare. These methods can be critical in providing high-quality care to patients with chronic rheumatological diseases lacking an optimal treatment, like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), which is the second most prevalent autoimmune disease. Herein, following reviewing the basic concepts of AI, we summarize the advances in its applications in RA clinical practice and research. We provide directions for future investigations in this field after reviewing the current knowledge gaps and technical and ethical challenges in applying AI. Automated models have been largely used to improve RA diagnosis since the early 2000s, and they have used a wide variety of techniques, e.g., support vector machine, random forest, and artificial neural networks. AI algorithms can facilitate screening and identification of susceptible groups, diagnosis using omics, imaging, clinical, and sensor data, patient detection within electronic health record (EHR), i.e., phenotyping, treatment response assessment, monitoring disease course, determining prognosis, novel drug discovery, and enhancing basic science research. They can also aid in risk assessment for incidence of comorbidities, e.g., cardiovascular diseases, in patients with RA. However, the proposed models may vary significantly in their performance and reliability. Despite the promising results achieved by AI models in enhancing early diagnosis and management of patients with RA, they are not fully ready to be incorporated into clinical practice. Future investigations are required to ensure development of reliable and generalizable algorithms while they carefully look for any potential source of bias or misconduct. We showed that a growing body of evidence supports the potential role of AI in revolutionizing screening, diagnosis, and management of patients with RA. However, multiple obstacles hinder clinical applications of AI models. Incorporating the machine and/or deep learning algorithms into real-world settings would be a key step in the progress of AI in medicine.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19-induced silent myocarditis and newly developed hypertension in a 3-year-old boy

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 myocarditis occurs in 7-28% of patients admitted in the hospital with or without multisystem inflammatory syndrome. It may present as fulminant myocarditis. Dilated cardiomyopathy as a sequela of COVID-19 myocarditis has been reported in the pediatric population. However, to date, no case of silent COVID-19 myocarditis progressing to dilated cardiomyopathy has been reported in children. Furthermore, although newly developed hypertension as a sequela of COVID-19 infection has been reported in adults, there is no report of newly developed COVID-induced hypertension in children. We report a 3-year-old boy with silent COVID-19 myocarditis progressing to dilated cardiomyopathy and newly developed systemic hypertension.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 3-year-old boy was referred to the emergency department because of respiratory distress. The parents gave a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the child 5 months ago that was manifested as fever and cough, for which he was treated as an outpatient. Echocardiographic examination revealed a severe decrease in left ventricular systolic function in favor of dilated cardiomyopathy. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging established the diagnosis of myocarditis. The patient left ventricular systolic function did not improve after 2 weeks of intravenous inotropic support. Therefore, the child was transferred to another tertiary center with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and pediatric cardiac transplantation facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 can induce silent myocarditis with progression to dilated cardiomyopathy and newly developed systemic hypertension. Thus, a thorough examination of the heart and measurement of blood pressure are mandatory in every child with COVID-19 infection. Cardiac MR is an indispensable tool in the diagnosis, follow-up, and prognostication of COVID-19 myocarditis. Moreover, four-chamber speckle tracking strain imaging showed apical rocking in all the four heart chambers in this child with opposite direction in the failed left ventricle compared with other cardiac chambers. Lastly, the presence of septal flash on M-mode echocardiography, apical rocking and prestretch-rebound stretch patterns on longitudinal strain imaging of the failed left ventricle in this child may be of predictive value for response to cardiac resynchronization therapy.

Exercise-induced increase in blood-based brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in people with multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis of exercise intervention trials

Background

Exercise training may affect the blood levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), but meta-analyses have not yet been performed comparing pre- and post-intervention BDNF concentrations in patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS).

Objective

To perform a meta-analysis to study the influence of exercise on BDNF levels and define components that modulate them across clinical trials of exercise training in adults living with multiple sclerosis (MS).

Method

Five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, PEDro database, CINAHL) were searched up to June 2021. According to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, we included 13 articles in the meta-analysis, including 271 subjects. To investigate sources of heterogeneity, subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis were conducted. We performed the meta-analysis to compare pre- and post-exercise peripheral levels of BDNF in PwMS.

Results

Post-exercise concentrations of serum BDNF were significantly higher than pre-intervention levels (Standardized Mean Difference (SMD): 0.33, 95% CI: [0.04; 0.61], p-value = 0.02). Meta-regression indicated that the quality of the included studies based on the PEDro assessment tool might be a source of heterogeneity, while no significant effect was found for chronological age and disease severity according to the expanded disability status scale.

Conclusion

This systematic review and meta-analysis shows that physical activity increases peripheral levels of BDNF in PwMS. More research on the effect of different modes of exercise on BDNF levels in PwMS is warranted.

Circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor as a potential biomarker in stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Stroke, an acute cerebrovascular event, is a leading cause of disability, placing a significant psycho-socioeconomic burden worldwide. The adaptation and reorganization process following any neuronal damage is regarded as neuroplasticity. Among many factors believed to attribute to this process, Brain-derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) is a neurotrophin coordinating neuroplasticity after various neurological disorders such as stroke.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search in the main electronic medical databases in January 2021. Primarily we want to compare BDNF levels between patients with stroke and healthy controls (HC). Additional aims included investigation of (1) longitudinal changes in the BDNF levels post-stroke, (2) effects of physical training, (3) repeated transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), and presence of depression on BDNF levels in patients with stroke.

Results

Among 6243 reviewed records from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus, 62 studies were eligible for inclusion in our systematic review. Subjects with stroke, n = 1856, showed lower BDNF levels compared to HC, n = 1191 (SMD [95%CI] = − 1.04 [− 1.49 to − 0.58]). No significant difference was detected in the level of BDNF through time points past stroke. BDNF levels were lower in the patients with depression compared to non-depressed subjects (SMD [95%CI] = − 0.60 [− 1.10 to − 0.10]). Physical training had an immediate positive effect on the BDNF levels and not statistically significant effect in the long term; SMD [95%CI] = 0.49 [0.09 to 0.88]) and SMD [95%CI] = 0.02 [− 0.43 to 0.47]). Lastly, rTMS showed no effect on the level of BDNF with 0.00 SMD.

Conclusions

Our study confirms that stroke significantly decreases the level of BDNF in various domains such as cognition, affect, and motor function. As BDNF is the major representative of neuroplasticity within nervous system, it is believed that stroke has a significant impact on the CNS regeneration, which is permanent if left untreated. This effect is intensified with coexisting conditions such as depression which further decrease the BDNF level but the net impact yet needs to be discovered. We also conclude that exercise and some interventions such as different medications could effectively reverse the damage but further studies are crucial to reach the exact modality and dosage for their optimal effect.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03312-y.

Universal Accreditation System (UAS): An Innovative Education and Research Credit Appraisal by USERN

The article's abstract is not available.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index of endocarditis: the global burden of disease study 1990-2019

AIMS

Endocarditis accounts for significant morbidity and mortality. Timely diagnosis and prompt treatment are of paramount importance for optimal patient outcome. However, only few studies have assessed quality of care (QoC) in endocarditis. We aimed to describe QoC and changes in epidemiological features of endocarditis from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using primary indices of mortality, incidence, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life year, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we calculated four secondary measures. Principal component analysis was performed to calculate QoC index (QCI), scored on a scale of 0-100 with higher values indicating better QoC, for different locations, age groups, and genders from 1990 to 2019. The all-ages incidence rate of endocarditis was estimated to increase significantly from 1990 to 2019, while mortality rate did not change. The age-standardized QCI was 73.6% globally, with higher values in high-income countries than in low-income countries. High-income North America (82.0%) and Asia Pacific (81.1%) had the highest QCI, whereas Eastern Europe (43.3%) had the lowest. Globally, the 30-49 and 95+ age groups had the highest (91.3%) and the lowest (71.7%) QCI, respectively. In most countries, particularly those with lower socio-demographic index, women had better QCI.

CONCLUSION

This is the first global assessment of QCI, shedding light on the current trends and highlighting the necessity of improving the endocarditis QoC, mainly by timely case detection, adherence to antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, utilizing targeted antibiotics and advanced treatments, in the African region and resolving gender inequality in selected countries.

Pentoxifylline for treatment of major depression after percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Near one-fifth of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) develop major depressive disorder (MDD), an independent risk factor of mortality in these patients. We investigated the efficacy of oral pentoxifylline in treating MDD in CAD patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in a 6-week trial.

METHODS

We only included patients with mild to moderate MDD (having a score between 14 and 17 on the Hamilton depression rating scale (HAM-D)). Sixty-four CAD patients undergoing PCI or CABG aged 40-60 years were randomly assigned to either the pentoxifylline (800 mg daily) or the placebo group. The outcome was assessed with the HAM-D at weeks 2, 4, and 6.

RESULTS

Patients receiving pentoxifylline had greater improvement in HAM-D scores from baseline at each follow-up than patients receiving placebo (p-value = 0.036 at week 2, p-value < 0.001 at week 4, and p-value < 0.001 at week 6). We found a significant effect for treatment, time, and time×treatment interaction in depression improvement (p-value < 0.001). Rate of remission, treatment response, and adverse effects did not differ between the two groups.

DISCUSSION

Our study supports the safety and efficacy of pentoxifylline in treatment of MDD in CAD patients. However, further investigations are required to confirm the generalizability of our results since the results need to be interpreted cautiously because of the imitated range of disease severity for inclusion. This trial was registered with the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials (www.irct.ir; No. IRCT20090117001556N132).

Immune modulations and immunotherapies for Alzheimer's disease: a comprehensive review

Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common cause of dementia, is characterized by progressive cognitive and memory impairment ensued from neuronal dysfunction and eventual death. Intraneuronal deposition of tau proteins and extracellular senile amyloid-β plaques have ruled as the supreme postulations of AD for a relatively long time, and accordingly, a wide range of therapeutics, especially immunotherapies have been implemented. However, none of them resulted in significant positive cognitive outcomes. Especially, the repetitive failure of anti-amyloid therapies proves the inefficiency of the amyloid cascade hypothesis, suggesting that it is time to reconsider this hypothesis. Thus, for the time being, the focus is being shifted to neuroinflammation as a third core pathology in AD. Neuroinflammation was previously considered a result of the two aforementioned phenomena, but new studies suggest that it might play a causal role in the pathogenesis of AD. Neuroinflammation can act as a double-edged sword in the pathogenesis of AD, and the activation of glial cells is indispensable for mediating such attenuating or detrimental effects. The association of immune-related genes polymorphisms with the clinical phenotype of AD as well as the protective effect of anti-inflammatory drugs like nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs supports the possible causal role of neuroinflammation in AD. Here, we comprehensively review immune-based therapeutic approaches toward AD, including monoclonal antibodies and vaccines. We also discuss their efficacy and underlying reasons for shortcomings. Lastly, we highlight the capacity of modulating the neuroimmune interactions and targeting neuroinflammation as a promising opportunity for finding optimal treatments for AD.

Orthopedic management of myelomeningocele with a multidisciplinary approach: a systematic review of the literature

Background

Myelomeningocele (MMC) is the most common and severe form of spina bifida and imposes a significant burden on patients and the healthcare system. Recently, the multidisciplinary management of MMC has become popular. Herein, we aimed to review the orthopedic management, outcomes, and complications of the of patients with MMC eyeing a multidisciplinary approach.

Methods

We searched PubMed and EMBASE to find relevant studies published before August 2020. All studies that included clinical management of MMC patients and published earlier than 2000 were considered for review on the condition that they reported at least one orthopedic intervention and the rate of complications. We excluded review articles, case reports, case series, letters, commentaries, editorials, and conference abstracts. The primary and secondary goals of our review were to report the outcomes and complication rates of multidisciplinary management for MMC patients.

Results

Twenty-six studies included data for the management of 229,791 patients with MMC and were selected. Sixteen studies reported multidisciplinary management in addition to orthopedic management. From those, 11 (42.31%) included urologic management, 13 (50%) neurosurgical management, 11 (42.31%) neurologic management, and 5 (19.23%) gastrointestinal management. All studies included postnatal operations and related management. No randomized clinical trial was found in our search.

Conclusion

Orthopedic approaches play a key role in MMC management by alleviating spinal deformities, particularly scoliosis, and hip, foot, and ankle complications. However, the most appropriate management, whether surgical or non-surgical, may vary for different patients, given disease severity and the age of patients.

Graphical abstract

Long Non-Coding RNAs in Diagnosis, Treatment, Prognosis, and Progression of Glioma: A State-of-the-Art Review

Glioma is the most common malignant central nervous system tumor with significant mortality and morbidity. Despite considerable advances, the exact molecular pathways involved in tumor progression are not fully elucidated, and patients commonly face a poor prognosis. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have recently drawn extra attention for their potential roles in different types of cancer as well as non-malignant diseases. More than 200 lncRNAs have been reported to be associated with glioma. We aimed to assess the roles of the most investigated lncRNAs in different stages of tumor progression and the mediating molecular pathways in addition to their clinical applications. lncRNAs are involved in different stages of tumor formation, invasion, and progression, including regulating the cell cycle, apoptosis, autophagy, epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, tumor stemness, angiogenesis, the integrity of the blood-tumor-brain barrier, tumor metabolism, and immunological responses. The well-known oncogenic lncRNAs, which are upregulated in glioma, are H19, HOTAIR, PVT1, UCA1, XIST, CRNDE, FOXD2-AS1, ANRIL, HOXA11-AS, TP73-AS1, and DANCR. On the other hand, MEG3, GAS5, CCASC2, and TUSC7 are tumor suppressor lncRNAs, which are downregulated. While most studies reported oncogenic effects for MALAT1, TUG1, and NEAT1, there are some controversies regarding these lncRNAs. Expression levels of lncRNAs can be associated with tumor grade, survival, treatment response (chemotherapy drugs or radiotherapy), and overall prognosis. Moreover, circulatory levels of lncRNAs, such as MALAT1, H19, HOTAIR, NEAT1, TUG1, GAS5, LINK-A, and TUSC7, can provide non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic tools. Modulation of expression of lncRNAs using antisense oligonucleotides can lead to novel therapeutics. Notably, a profound understanding of the underlying molecular pathways involved in the function of lncRNAs is required to develop novel therapeutic targets. More investigations with large sample sizes and increased focus on in-vivo models are required to expand our understanding of the potential roles and application of lncRNAs in glioma.

International Scientific Collaboration Is Needed to Bridge Science to Society: USERN2020 Consensus Statement

Scientific collaboration has been a critical aspect of the development of all fields of science, particularly clinical medicine. It is well understood that myriads of benefits can be yielded by interdisciplinary and international collaboration. For instance, our rapidly growing knowledge on COVID-19 and vaccine development could not be attained without expanded collaborative activities. However, achieving fruitful results requires mastering specific tactics in collaborative efforts. These activities can enhance our knowledge, which ultimately benefits society. In addition to tackling the issue of the invisible border between different countries, institutes, and disciplines, the border between the scientific community and society needs to be addressed as well. International and transdisciplinary approaches can potentially be the best solution for bridging science and society. The Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN) is a non-governmental, non-profit organization and network to promote professional, scientific research and education worldwide. The fifth annual congress of USERN was held in Tehran, Iran, in a hybrid manner on November 7–10, 2020, with key aims of bridging science to society and facilitating borderless science. Among speakers of the congress, a group of top scientists unanimously agreed on The USERN 2020 consensus, which is drafted with the goal of connecting society with scientific scholars and facilitating international and interdisciplinary scientific activities in all fields, including clinical medicine.

Novel Variants of DOCK8 Deficiency in a Case Series of Iranian Patients

BACKGROUND

Dedicator of Cytokinesis 8 (DOCK8) deficiency, the most frequent cause of autosomal recessive hyper immunoglobulin (Ig)E syndrome, is a rare combined immunodeficiency.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we report seven patients with consanguineous parents with five novel variants within the DOCK8 gene.

METHODS

For genetic analysis, we performed Whole Exome Sequencing (WES), or targeted sequencing by means of Next-generation sequencing (NGS) for some of the patients. For others, Sanger sequencing, Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS), or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used.

RESULTS

We report five novel variants within the DOCK8 gene: three deletions (deletion of exons 4-12, 24-30, and 22-27), one frameshift (LRG_196:g.189315dup;p.(Leu1052Profs*7)), and a splice region variant (LRG_196t1:c.741+5G>T). Patients presented with skin lesions, food allergy, candidiasis, otitis, recurrent respiratory infections, short stature, aortic aneurism, gynecomastia, and coarse facial features. Patients had leukocytosis, eosinophilia, lymphopenia, and monocytosis, elevated IgE, IgG, IgA , reduced IgM and IgA levels. Patients had a low percentage of CD3+ and CD4+ cells, and a high percentage of CD19+, CD27+CD19+, and recent thymic emigrants T cells. The percentage of natural killer cells was increased in one of the patients while it was decreased in another patient. One patient died due to disseminated intravascular coagulation after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

CONCLUSION

We reported novel variants within the DOCK8 gene and highlighted risk of aneurysms in these patients, which have been rarely reported in these patients.

Neuronal and glial CSF biomarkers in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease associated with inflammatory demyelination and astroglial activation, with neuronal and axonal damage as the leading factors of disability. We aimed to perform a meta-analysis to determine changes in CSF levels of neuronal and glial biomarkers, including neurofilament light chain (NFL), total tau (t-tau), chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and S100B in various groups of MS (MS versus controls, clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) versus controls, CIS versus MS, relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) versus progressive MS (PMS), and MS in relapse versus remission. According to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, we included 64 articles in the meta-analysis, including 4071 subjects. For investigation of sources of heterogeneity, subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis were conducted. Meta-analyses were performed for comparisons including at least three individual datasets. NFL, GFAP, t-tau, CHI3L1, and S100B were higher in MS and NFL, t-tau, and CHI3L1 were also elevated in CIS patients than controls. CHI3L1 was the only marker with higher levels in MS than CIS. GFAP levels were higher in PMS versus RRMS, and NFL, t-tau, and CHI3L1 did not differ between different subtypes. Only levels of NFL were higher in patients in relapse than remission. Meta-regression showed influence of sex and disease severity on NFL and t-tau levels, respectively and disease duration on both. Added to the role of these biomarkers in determining prognosis and treatment response, to conclude, they may serve in diagnosis of MS and distinguishing different subtypes.

The Hybrid USERN 2020 Congress: New Standards for Events in Practice

The article's abstract is not available.

Exercise-induced electrocardiographic changes after treadmill exercise testing in healthy children: A comprehensive study

Background:

Aims and Objectives:

Materials and Methods:

Results:

Conclusion:

Socialization During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Social and Scientific Networks During Social Distancing

In the COVID-19 era, while we are encouraged to be physically far away from each other, social and scientific networking is needed more than ever. The dire consequences of social distancing can be diminished by social networking. Social media, a quintessential component of social networking, facilitates the dissemination of reliable information and fighting against misinformation by health authorities. Distance learning, telemedicine, and telehealth are among the most prominent applications of networking during this pandemic. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of collaborative scientific efforts. In this chapter, we summarize the advantages of harnessing both social and scientific networking in minimizing the harms of this pandemic. We also discuss the extra collaborative measures we can take in our fight against COVID-19, particularly in the scientific field.

DiGeorge syndrome and anomalous right aortic arch with arch-on-arch and figure-of-eight configurations: Aortic sac maldevelopment and left brachiocephalic artery abnormal remodeling

We report a 6-month-old female infant with deletion of chromosome 22q11.2 (DiGeorge/VFS TUPLE 1), normal atrial arrangement with concordant atrioventricular connection, pulmonary atresia, large subaortic ventricular septal defect, diminutive native pulmonary arteries, a characteristic weird-shape right aortic arch with arch-on-arch appearance and figure of 8 configuration. We presented the cardiac computed tomographic angiographic and cardiac angiographic features. Using Autodesk 3ds Max 2018 software, we explained and illustrated the speculative embryologic etiology of this bizarre aortic archanomaly with the extensive abnormal remodeling of the left brachiocephalic artery, based on a “five-embryonic aortic arches” concept. As to the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first report of a genetically confirmed case of DiGeorge syndrome and an exceedingly rare type of right aortic arch anomaly with embryologic explanation according to the “five-embryonic-aortic-arches” concept. It seems that the constellation of pulmonary atresia, bizarreshaped right aortic arch due to abnormal development of the aortic sac, and abnormal remodeling of the left brachiocephalic artery may be strongly suggestive of DiGeorge syndrome.

U100: An Innovative USERN Platform for Education and Research Without Borders

The article's abstract is no available.

Cardiovascular disease in COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 10,898 patients and proposal of a triage risk stratification tool

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has drastically affected global health. Despite several studies, there is yet a dearth of data regarding the mechanisms of cardiac injury, clinical presentation, risk factors, and treatment of COVID-19-associated cardiovascular disease. This systematic review and meta-analysis is aimed at defining the clinical, electrocardiographic, and pathologic spectrum of cardiovascular disease (CVD), frequency of elevated cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers, and their frequency and relationship with severity of the disease and mortality in COVID-19 patients and to develop a triage risk stratification tool (TRST) that can serve as a guide for the timely recognition of the high-risk patients and mechanism-targeted therapy. We conducted an online search in databases of PubMed and Embase to identify relevant studies. Data selection was in concordance with PRISMA guidelines. Results were presented as pooled frequencies, odds ratio, standardized mean difference (SMD), and forest and funnel plots.

RESULTS

We gathered a total of 54 studies and included 35 of them in our meta-analysis. Acute cardiac injury occurred in more than 25% of cases, mortality was 20 times higher, and admission to intensive care unit increased by 13.5 times. Hypertension was the most common pre-existing comorbidity with a frequency of 29.2%, followed by diabetes mellitus (13.5%). The deceased group of patients had higher cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers, with statistically significant SMD, compared with survivors. Pediatric patients were predominantly mildly affected. However, less frequently, the presentation was very similar to Kawasaki disease or Kawasaki shock syndrome. This latter presentation hass been called as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide spectrum of cardiac involvement in COVID-19 patients, and hence a Triage Risk Stratification Tool can serve as a guide for the timely recognition of the high-risk patients and mechanism-targeted therapy.

Sulforaphane as an adjunctive treatment for irritability in children with autism spectrum disorder: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial

AIM

Irritability related to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) complicates the management of ASD patients at home and in clinical settings. In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, we aimed to investigate the beneficial effects of adjuvant treatment with risperidone and sulforaphane in alleviating the irritability of children with ASD.

METHODS

Sixty drug-free patients aged 4-12 years were randomly assigned to one of two groups receiving risperidone plus sulforaphane or placebo. Risperidone was started with a daily dose of 0.25 mg in patients weighing <20 kg and 0.5 mg in those weighing ≥20 kg and increased stepwise to reach a maximum of 1 mg (<20 kg), 2.5 mg (20-45 kg), and 3.5 mg (>45 kg). Sulforaphane was administered at a daily dose of 50 μmol (≤45 kg) or 100 μmol (>45 kg). The participants were assessed with the Aberrant Behavior Checklist - Community Edition at baseline and at Weeks 5 and 10.

RESULTS

Compared to the placebo group, ASD patients in the sulforaphane group showed greater improvements in Irritability score (primary outcome measure; P = 0.001) and Hyperactivity/Noncompliance score (secondary outcome measure; P = 0.015), and significant Time × Treatment effect for Irritability (P = 0.007) and Hyperactivity/Noncompliance (P = 0.008). However, no difference was seen in improvements in the other secondary measures: Lethargy/Social Interaction score, Stereotypic Behavior score, Inappropriate Speech score, and frequency of adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the safety and efficacy of sulforaphane as an adjuvant to risperidone for improvement of irritability and hyperactivity symptoms in children with ASD.

All together to Fight COVID-19

Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), named a pandemic by the WHO, is the current global health crisis. National and international collaboration are indispensable for combating COVID-19 and other similar potential outbreaks. International efforts to tackle this complex problem have led to remarkable scientific advances. Yet, as a global society, we can and must take additional measures to fight this pandemic. Undoubtedly, our approach toward COVID-19 was not perfect, and testing has not been deployed fast enough to arrest the epidemic early on. It is critical that we revise our approaches to be more prepared for pandemics as a united body by promoting global cooperation and commitment.

Cytokine Alterations in Schizophrenia: An Updated Review

Schizophrenia, a multisystem disorder with an unknown etiology, is associated with several immune dysfunctions, including abnormal levels of circulating cytokines. In this review, we investigated the changes of cytokines in schizophrenic patients, their connection with behavioral symptoms severity and their potential clinical implications. We also assessed the possible causative role of abnormal cytokine levels in schizophrenia pathogenesis. Based on meta-analyses, we categorized cytokines according to their changes in schizophrenic patients into four groups: (1) increased cytokines, including interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, IL-1β, IL-12, and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β, (2) non-altered cytokines, including IL-2, IL-4, and IL-17, (3) increased or non-altered cytokines, including IL-8 and interferon (IFN)-γ, and (4) IL-10 with increased, decreased, and non-altered levels. Notably, alterations in cytokines may be variable in four different categories of SP, including first-episode and drug-naïve, first-episode and non-drug-naïve, stable chronic, and chronic in acute relapse. Furthermore, disease duration, symptoms severity, incidence of aggression, and cognitive abilities are correlated with levels of certain cytokines. Clinical implications of investigating the levels of cytokine in schizophrenic patients include early diagnosis, novel therapeutic targets development, patient stratification for choosing the best therapeutic protocol, and predicting the prognosis and treatment response. The levels of IL-6, IL-8, IFN-γ, IL-2 are related to the treatment response. The available evidence shows a potential causative role for cytokines in schizophrenia development. There is a substantial need for studies investigating the levels of cytokines before disease development and delineating the therapeutic implications of the disrupted cytokine levels in schizophrenia.