Control measures to prevent the increase of paratuberculosis prevalence in dairy cattle herds: an individual-based modelling approach

Invited Review: Improved control of Johne's disease in dairy cattle through advancements in diagnostics, testing and management of young stock

Johne's disease (JD; paratuberculosis) control programs have been regionally implemented across the globe, but few have successfully eradicated the pathogen (Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)) causing this disease. The limited success may partly be attributed to excluding young stock (calves and replacement heifers or bulls) from testing strategies aimed at identifying MAP-infected cattle. Young stock can shed MAP in feces and can have detectable MAP-specific antibodies in blood, as confirmed in experimentally and naturally infected cattle. Furthermore, MAP transmission causes new infections in young stock. Calves and heifers are often included in JD management strategies on dairy farms but excluded from conventional diagnostic tests due to a presumed lag between infection and detection of MAP shedding and/or MAP-specific serum antibodies. We summarize evidence of MAP shedding early in the course of infection and discuss promising diagnostics, testing and management strategies to support inclusion of young stock in JD control programs. Improvements in fecal Polymerase Chain Reaction, interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) enable earlier detection of MAP and specific early immune responses. Studies on IGRA and ELISA have focused on evaluation of new antigens and optimal age of testing. There are new diagnostics, including phage-based tests to detect viable MAP, and gene expression patterns and metabolomics to detect MAP-infected young stock. In addition, refinements in testing and management of calves and heifers may enable reductions in MAP prevalence. We provide recommendations for dairy farmers, researchers, veterinarians, and other stakeholders that may improve JD control programs with an objective to control and potentially eradicate JD. Additionally, we have identified the most pressing gaps in knowledge that currently hamper inclusion of young stock in JD prevention and control programs. In summary, transmission among young stock may cause new MAP infections, and appropriate use of new diagnostic tests, testing and management strategies for young stock may improve the efficacy of JD control programs.

Rewiring cattle movements to limit infection spread

Cattle tracing databases have become major resources for representing demographic processes of livestock and assessing potential risk of infections spreading by trade. The herds registered in these databases are nodes of a network of commercial movements, which can be altered to lower the risk of disease transmission. In this study, we develop an algorithm aimed at reducing the number of infected animals and herds, by rewiring specific movements responsible for trade flows from high- to low-prevalence herds. The algorithm is coupled with a generic computational model based on the French cattle movement tracing database (BDNI), and used to describe different scenarios for the spread of infection within and between herds from a recent outbreak (epidemic) or a five-year-old outbreak (endemic). Results show that rewiring successfully contains infections to a limited number of herds, especially if the outbreak is recent and the estimation of disease prevalence frequent, while the respective impact of the parameters of the algorithm depend on the infection parameters. Allowing any animal movement from high to low-prevalence herds reduces the effectiveness of the algorithm in epidemic settings, while frequent and fine-grained prevalence assessments improve the impact of the algorithm in endemic settings. Our approach focusing on a few commercial movements is expected to lead to substantial improvements in the control of a targeted disease, although changes in the network structure should be monitored for potential vulnerabilities to other diseases. This general algorithm could be applied to any network of controlled individual movements liable to spread disease.

Comparison of Machine Learning Tree-Based Algorithms to Predict Future Paratuberculosis ELISA Results Using Repeat Milk Tests

Machine learning algorithms have been applied to various animal husbandry and veterinary-related problems; however, its use in Johne's disease diagnosis and control is still in its infancy. The following proof-of-concept study explores the application of tree-based (decision trees and random forest) algorithms to analyze repeat milk testing data from 1197 Canadian dairy cows and the algorithms' ability to predict future Johne's test results. The random forest models using milk component testing results alongside past Johne's results demonstrated a good predictive performance for a future Johne's ELISA result with a dichotomous outcome (positive vs. negative). The final random forest model yielded a kappa of 0.626, a roc AUC of 0.915, a sensitivity of 72%, and a specificity of 98%. The positive predictive and negative predictive values were 0.81 and 0.97, respectively. The decision tree models provided an interpretable alternative to the random forest algorithms with a slight decrease in model sensitivity. The results of this research suggest a promising avenue for future targeted Johne's testing schemes. Further research is needed to validate these techniques in real-world settings and explore their incorporation in prevention and control programs.

Investigating effective testing strategies for the control of Johne's disease in western Canadian cow-calf herds using an agent-based simulation model

Johne's disease is an insidious infectious disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's disease can have important implications for animal welfare and risks causing economic losses in affected herds due to reduced productivity, premature culling and replacement, and veterinary costs. Despite the limited accuracy of diagnostic tools, testing and culling is the primary option for controlling Johne's disease in beef herds. However, evidence to inform specific test and cull strategies is lacking. In this study, a stochastic, continuous-time agent-based model was developed to investigate Johne's disease and potential control options in a typical western Canadian cow-calf herd. The objective of this study was to compare different testing and culling scenarios that included varying the testing method and frequency as well as the number and risk profile of animals targeted for testing using the model. The relative effectiveness of each testing scenario was determined by the simulated prevalence of cattle shedding MAP after a 10-year testing period. A second objective was to compare the direct testing costs of each scenario to identify least-cost options that are the most effective at reducing within-herd disease prevalence. Whole herd testing with individual PCR at frequencies of 6 or 12 months were the most effective options for reducing disease prevalence. Scenarios that were also effective at reducing prevalence but with the lowest total testing costs included testing the whole herd with individual PCR every 24 months and testing the whole herd with pooled PCR every 12 months. The most effective method with the lowest annual testing cost per unit of prevalence reduction was individual PCR on the whole herd every 24 months. Individual PCR testing only cows that had not already been tested 4 times also ranked well when considering both final estimated prevalence at 10 years and cost per unit of gain. A more in-depth economic analysis is needed to compare the cost of testing to the cost of disease, taking into account costs of culling, replacements and impacts on calf crops, and to determine if testing is an economically attractive option for commercial cow-calf operations.

Modelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis between Irish dairy cattle herds

Bovine paratuberculosis is an endemic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). Map is mainly transmitted between herds through movement of infected but undetected animals. Our objective was to investigate the effect of observed herd characteristics on Map spread on a national scale in Ireland. Herd characteristics included herd size, number of breeding bulls introduced, number of animals purchased and sold, and number of herds the focal herd purchases from and sells to. We used these characteristics to classify herds in accordance with their probability of becoming infected and of spreading infection to other herds. A stochastic individual-based model was used to represent herd demography and Map infection dynamics of each dairy cattle herd in Ireland. Data on herd size and composition, as well as birth, death, and culling events were used to characterize herd demography. Herds were connected with each other through observed animal trade movements. Data consisted of 13 353 herds, with 4 494 768 dairy female animals, and 72 991 breeding bulls. We showed that the probability of an infected animal being introduced into the herd increases both with an increasing number of animals that enter a herd via trade and number of herds from which animals are sourced. Herds that both buy and sell a lot of animals pose the highest infection risk to other herds and could therefore play an important role in Map spread between herds.

Effective control of Johne’s disease in large Czech dairy herds

Introduction

Johne’s disease, caused by infection with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), causes economic losses in dairy herds due to reduced milk production and premature culling. A test-and-cull strategy coupled with changes in calf rearing management preventing new infections has been introduced into infected herds to control MAP prevalence. This study appraised the effectiveness of these practice changes.

Material and Methods

In 19 large dairy herds (of a median 470 milk-producing cows), implementing MAP control measures for 3–7 years, a serum ELISA was used to detect infected cows in their dry-off period. The number of ELISA-positive animals per year (EPAY) was calculated and statistical analysis was used to test whether the EPAY total decreased during the control period and to analyse the EPAY in relationship to the duration of the control programme.

Results

Statistical support was found for a decrease of EPAY over time (P < 0.01, odds ratio 0.756) and in 14 herds a significant fall in the percentages of EPAY during the test period (P ≤ 0.05) was noted.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the control measures in place to reduce MAP infection in herds with initial EPAY ≥3.36%. The missing decreasing trend in the remaining five herds with low average initial EPAY suggested the need for additional measures to reduce the number of infected animals in these herds.

Development and Validation of a Novel ELISA for the Specific Detection of Antibodies against Mycobacterium avium Subspecies paratuberculosis Based on a Chimeric Polyprotein

Bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The optimization of detection tests specific for MAP is crucial to improve PTB control. In this work, we aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic tool based on an ELISA to specifically detect anti-MAP antibodies from bovine serum samples. For that purpose, we designed a recombinant polyprotein containing four specific antigens from MAP and optimized the ELISA. The validation consisted of the assessment of 10 sera from PTB-infected and healthy bovines with different OD values. The diagnostic performance of the polyprotein-ELISA was evaluated by testing 130 bovine serum samples (47 healthy, 48 MAP-infected, and 35 M. bovis-infected bovines). The ELISA using the polyprotein yielded an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.9912 (95% CI, 0.9758–1.007; P < 0.0001). Moreover, for this ELISA, the cut-off selected from the ROC curve based on the point with a sensitivity of 95.56% (95% CI, 0.8485–0.9946) and specificity of 97.92 (95% CI, 0.8893–0.9995) was 0.3328. Similar results were obtained with an ELISA using the commercial Paratuberculosis Protoplasmatic Antigen (PPA). However, the ELISA with the polyprotein antigen showed a better performance against sera from animals infected with Mycobacterium bovis compared to the ELISA with PPA: lower cross-reactivity (2.85% versus 25.71%). These results demonstrate a very low cross-reactivity of the polyprotein with antibodies present in serum samples from animals infected with M. bovis. The designed polyprotein and the validated ELISA could be very useful for the specific identification of MAP-infected animals in herds.

Rewiring cattle trade movements helps to control bovine paratuberculosis at a regional scale

Paratuberculosis is a worldwide disease mainly introduced through trade. Due to the low sensitivity of diagnostic tests, it is difficult to protect herds from purchasing infected animals. Our objective was to assess if rewiring trade networks to promote risk-based movements could reduce the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) between dairy cattle herds at a regional scale. Two levels of control strategies were assessed. At the between-herd scale, trade rewiring aimed to prevent animals from high-risk herds moving into low-risk herds. At the within-herd scale, complementary additional measures were considered based on the herd infection status, aiming to limit the within-herd spread by reducing calf exposure to adult faeces and culling more rapidly after positive test results. We used a stochastic individual-based and between-herd mechanistic epidemiological model adapted to the 12,857 dairy cattle herds located in Brittany, western France. We compared the regional spread of MAP using observed trade movements against a rewiring algorithm rendering trade movements risk-based. All females over two years old were tested. Based on the results, and taking into account the low test sensitivity, herds were annually assigned one of three statuses: A if the estimated true prevalence was below 7%, B if it ranged from 7 to 21 %, C otherwise. We also identified herds with a high probability of being MAP-free (AAA herds that had obtained an A status over three consecutive years) to assess the effect of decreasing their risk of purchasing infected animals on MAP regional spread. We showed that movement rewiring to prevent the sale of animals from high to low-prevalence herds reduces MAP regional spread. Targeting AAA herds made it possible to minimize the control effort to decrease MAP regional spread. However, animals purchased by AAA herds should have a moderate to high probability of being MAP-free, especially if the risk of purchasing animals from herds of unknown status cannot be managed. Improved hygiene and early culling of positive animals were relevant complementary on-farm control options to further decrease MAP spread. Future studies should identify how to define herd statuses to target optimal control measure combinations that could reduce the spread of MAP on a regional scale most effectively.

The Occurrence of Mycobacterium avium Subspecies paratuberculosis Positive Milk Antibody ELISA Results in Dairy Cattle under Varying Time Periods after Skin Testing for Bovine Tuberculosis

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) are used to screen cows for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infections, informing Johne's disease (JD) management practices in dairy herds. The causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), Mycobacterium bovis, and MAP share multiple antigens. Moreover, Mycobacterium avium subspecies avium is used in the single intradermal cervical comparative tests (SICCT) that are routinely used in early detection of cows infected with bTB. Although these are different types of immune responses, potentially the SICCT may interfere with the levels of MAP antibodies. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between the SICCT-MAP milk ELISA testing interval and apparent prevalence of JD risk statuses. Data from 51 herds were used, totalling 46,738 cow observations. The Poisson models showed that MAP milk ELISA testing at 14 day intervals post-SICCT statistically significantly increased the odds of detecting JD-positive cows compared to JD testing 85+ days post-SICCT. The odds ratio (OR) started at 2.5 in the first 14 day interval post-SICCT, increasing each two-week period to an OR of 4.0 at 57-70 days, to subsequently drop. Additionally, a herd history of bTB increased the odds of detecting JD-positive cows (OR = 1.2); this was relatively limited compared to the magnitude of the post-SICCT effect.

Short communication: Seroprevalence of paratuberculosis in Italian water buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) in the region of Campania

Paratuberculosis is a chronic enteric disease affecting virtually all ruminants, but only anecdotal information is currently available about the occurrence of this disease in water buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis). We carried out a survey study aimed at determining the prevalence of paratuberculosis in 2 provinces in the region of Campania, Italy, where about half of all Italian buffaloes are reared. From May 2017 to December 2018, we collected 201,175 individual serum samples from 995 buffalo herds. The sera were collected from animals over 24 mo old and were tested using a commercial ELISA test. The herd-level apparent prevalence result was 54.7%, and the animal-level apparent prevalence was 1.8%. The herd-level true prevalence was estimated using a Bayesian approach, demonstrating a high herd-level prevalence of paratuberculosis in water buffaloes from the Campania area. These findings suggest that the urgent adoption of paratuberculosis herd-control programs for water buffaloes in this area would be beneficial.

Modelling transmission and control of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis within Irish dairy herds with compact spring calving

Paratuberculosis is a chronic bacterial infection of the intestine in cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). To better understand Map transmission in Irish dairy herds, we adapted the French stochastic individual-based epidemiological simulation model to account for seasonal herd demographics. We investigated the probability of Map persistence over time, the within-herd prevalence over time, and the relative importance of transmission pathways, and assessed the relative effectiveness of test-and-cull control strategies. We investigated the impact on model outputs of calf separation from cows (calves grazed on pasture adjacent to cows vs. were completely separated from cows) and test-and-cull. Test-and-cull scenarios consisted of highly test-positive cows culled within 13 or 4 weeks after detection, and calf born to highly test-positive cows kept vs removed. We simulated a typical Irish dairy herd with on average 82 lactating cows, 112 animals in total. Each scenario was iterated 1000 times to adjust variation caused by stochasticity. Map was introduced in the fully naive herd through the purchase of a moderately infectious primiparous cow. Infection was considered to persist when at least one infected animal remained in the herd or when Map was present in the environment. The probability of Map persistence 15 years after introduction ranged between 32.2-42.7 % when calves and cows had contact on pasture, and between 18.9-29.4 % when calves and cows were separated on pasture. The most effective control strategy was to cull highly test-positive cows within four weeks of detection (absolute 10 % lower persistence compared to scenarios without control). Removing the offspring of highly test-positive dams did not affect either Map persistence or within-herd prevalence of Map. Mean prevalence 15 years after Map introduction was highest (63.5 %) when calves and cows had contact on pasture. Mean prevalence was 15 % lower (absolute decrease) when cows were culled within 13 weeks of a high test-positive result, and 28 % lower when culled within 4 weeks. Around calving, the infection rate was high, with calves being infected in utero or via the general indoor environment (most important transmission routes). For the remainder of the year, the incidence rate was relatively low with most calves being infected on pasture when in contact with cows. Testing and culling was an effective control strategy when it was used prior to the calving period to minimize the number of highly infectious cows present when calves were born.

How mechanistic modelling supports decision making for the control of enzootic infectious diseases

Controlling enzootic diseases, which generate a large cumulative burden and are often unregulated, is needed for sustainable farming, competitive agri-food chains, and veterinary public health. We discuss the benefits and challenges of mechanistic epidemiological modelling for livestock enzootics, with particular emphasis on the need for interdisciplinary approaches. We focus on issues arising when modelling pathogen spread at various scales (from farm to the region) to better assess disease control and propose targeted options. We discuss in particular the inclusion of farmers' strategic decision-making, the integration of within-host scale to refine intervention targeting, and the need to ground models on data.

Reviewing age-structured epidemiological models of cattle diseases tailored to support management decisions: Guidance for the future

Mechanistic simulation models are being increasingly used as tools to assist with animal health decision-making in the cattle sector. We reviewed scientific literature for studies reporting age-structured cattle management models in application to infectious diseases. Our emphasis was on papers dedicated to support decision making in the field. In this systematic review we considered 1290 manuscripts and identified 76 eligible studies. These are based on 52 individual models from 10 countries addressing 9 different pathogens. We provide an overview of these models and present in detail their theoretical foundations, design paradigms and incorporated processes. We propose a structure of the characteristics of cattle disease models using three main features: [1] biological processes, [2] farming-related processes and [3] pathogen-related processes. It would be of benefit if future cattle disease models were to follow this structure to facilitate science communication and to allow increased model transparency.

Control of paratuberculosis: who, why and how. A review of 48 countries

Paratuberculosis, a chronic disease affecting ruminant livestock, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). It has direct and indirect economic costs, impacts animal welfare and arouses public health concerns. In a survey of 48 countries we found paratuberculosis to be very common in livestock. In about half the countries more than 20% of herds and flocks were infected with MAP. Most countries had large ruminant populations (millions), several types of farmed ruminants, multiple husbandry systems and tens of thousands of individual farms, creating challenges for disease control. In addition, numerous species of free-living wildlife were infected. Paratuberculosis was notifiable in most countries, but formal control programs were present in only 22 countries. Generally, these were the more highly developed countries with advanced veterinary services. Of the countries without a formal control program for paratuberculosis, 76% were in South and Central America, Asia and Africa while 20% were in Europe. Control programs were justified most commonly on animal health grounds, but protecting market access and public health were other factors. Prevalence reduction was the major objective in most countries, but Norway and Sweden aimed to eradicate the disease, so surveillance and response were their major objectives. Government funding was involved in about two thirds of countries, but operations tended to be funded by farmers and their organizations and not by government alone. The majority of countries (60%) had voluntary control programs. Generally, programs were supported by incentives for joining, financial compensation and/or penalties for non-participation. Performance indicators, structure, leadership, practices and tools used in control programs are also presented. Securing funding for long-term control activities was a widespread problem. Control programs were reported to be successful in 16 (73%) of the 22 countries. Recommendations are made for future control programs, including a primary goal of establishing an international code for paratuberculosis, leading to universal acknowledgment of the principles and methods of control in relation to endemic and transboundary disease. An holistic approach across all ruminant livestock industries and long-term commitment is required for control of paratuberculosis.

A review of paratuberculosis in dairy herds - Part 2: On-farm control

Bovine paratuberculosis is a chronic infectious disease of cattle, caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). This is the second in a two-part review of the epidemiology and control of paratuberculosis in dairy herds. Several negative production effects associated with MAP infection have been described, but perhaps the most significant concern in relation to the importance of paratuberculosis as a disease of dairy cattle is the potential link with Crohn's disease in humans. Milk is considered a potential transmission route to humans and it is recognised that pasteurisation does not necessarily eliminate the bacterium. Therefore, control must also include reduction of the levels of MAP in bulk milk supplied from dairy farms. There is little field evidence in support of specific control measures, although several studies seem to show a decreased prevalence associated with the implementation of a combined management and test-and-cull programme. Improvements in vaccination efficacy and reduced tuberculosis (TB) test interference may increase uptake of vaccination as a control option. Farmer adoption of best practice recommendations at farm level for the control of endemic diseases can be challenging. Improved understanding of farmer behaviour and decision making will help in developing improved communication strategies which may be more efficacious in affecting behavioural change on farm.