What matters: non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Europe

COVID-19 pandemic impact on gynecologic cancer treatment pathways in a Finnish tertiary center

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 and new guidelines during the pandemic affected the gynecologic cancer treatment pathways, resulting in recorded delays and modifications in the treatment protocols. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in one of the major gynecologic cancer care centers in Finland, Tampere University Hospital.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Our retrospective register study included 909 patients that were new gynecologic cancer cases (uterine, cervical, vulvar, vaginal, or ovarian) referred to the Tampere University Hospital Gynecologic Oncology Outpatient Clinic between March 17th, 2018, and March 15th, 2022. The patients were divided into two separate groups depending on their time of referral: time before COVID (March 17th, 2018, to March 15th, 2020), and during COVID (March 16th, 2020, to March 15th, 2022). These groups were compared in terms of patient characteristics, different cancer types and stages, symptoms, and treatment methods.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients generally suffered from cancer symptoms longer (p < 0.003) and were more likely to be overweight (p = 0.035). The improved multidisciplinary team meeting gave the patients a faster route to their first intervention during COVID (p < 0.05). An insignificant shift toward nonsurgical first interventions and non-curative intent was seen during COVID, but the multidisciplinary team treatment plans were mostly implemented accordingly on both eras. No decrease was seen in the number of new gynecologic cancer cases, and the one-year overall survival remained the same in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly alter treatment pathways in gynecologic cancer care at Tampere University Hospital. The number of new patients and given treatments remained relatively stable. During COVID, access from referral to cancer treatment was significantly accelerated, which is likely confounded by changes to the multidisciplinary team protocol made in early 2021.

Positive vaccine beliefs linked to reduced mental stress in healthcare professionals during COVID-19: a retrospective study

Background and aim

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant adverse effect on the mental health of healthcare professionals. This study aims to assess the effects of the prolonged pandemic on burnout and mood disorders and to evaluate the influence of positive vaccination beliefs on these factors at a medical center during the extended COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

This retrospective study analyzed the results of an online questionnaire survey including burnout status and mood disorders from 2020 to 2022. The factors related to mood moderate/severe disorders and the impact of the positive vaccine belief were also explored.

Results

The initial analysis revealed that healthcare professionals continued to experience significant levels of personal and work-related burnout, along with mood disorders. However, the scores and the percentage of moderate to severe burnout gradually decreased. Notably, the percentage of individuals with moderate to severe mood disorders also gradually declined (2020: 13.4%, 2021: 12.3%, 2022: 11.1%). The number of participants who need professional interventions decreased from 56.2% in 2020 to 45.9% in 2021, and 46% in 2022. Multivariate analysis revealed a positive vaccine belief was associated with a lower risk of moderate/severe mood disorders, with odd ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 0.38 (0.28 - 0.52) and 0.41 (0.30 - 0.52) in the 2021 and 2022 cohorts, respectively. Further investigation revealed that age over 50 was linked to a positive vaccine belief in 2021 and 2022. Within the 2022 cohort, working as nurses was identified as the independent factor associated with a less positive belief, with the OR and 95% CI of 0.49 (0.27 - 0.90).

Conclusion

The findings of the present study suggest burnout and mood disorders are still significant during the pandemic. A positive vaccine belief may mitigate pandemic-related mental distress. Further interventions to enhance the belief combined with other supporting measures are important in a long fight against the pandemic.

Assessing marginal effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across Africa: a hybrid modeling study

Since 2019, a new strain of coronavirus has challenged global health systems. Due its fragile healthcare systems, Africa was predicted to be the most affected continent. However, past experiences of African countries with epidemics and other factors, including actions taken by governments, have contributed to reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to assess the marginal impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in fifteen African countries during the pre-vaccination period. To describe the transmission dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2 spread, an extended time-dependent SEIR model was used. The transmission rate of each infectious stage was obtained using a logistic model with NPI intensity as a covariate. The results revealed that the effects of NPIs varied between countries. Overall, restrictive measures related to assembly had, in most countries, the largest reducing effects on the pre-symptomatic and mild transmission, while the transmission by severe individuals is influenced by privacy measures (more than $10\%$). Countries should develop efficient alternatives to assembly restrictions to preserve the economic sector. This involves e.g. training in digital tools and strengthening digital infrastructures.

Importations of SARS-CoV-2 lineages decline after nonpharmaceutical interventions in phylogeographic analyses

During the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, before vaccines were available, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as reducing contacts or antigenic testing were used to control viral spread. Quantifying their success is therefore key for future pandemic preparedness. Using 1.8 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from systematic surveillance, we study viral lineage importations into Germany for the third pandemic wave from late 2020 to early 2021, using large-scale Bayesian phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis with a longitudinal assessment of lineage importation dynamics over multiple sampling strategies. All major nationwide NPIs were followed by fewer importations, with the strongest decreases seen for free rapid tests, the strengthening of regulations on mask-wearing in public transport and stores, as well as on internal movements and gatherings. Most SARS-CoV-2 lineages first appeared in the three most populous states with most cases, and spread from there within the country. Importations rose before and peaked shortly after the Christmas holidays. The substantial effects of free rapid tests and obligatory medical/surgical mask-wearing suggests these as key for pandemic preparedness, given their relatively few negative socioeconomic effects. The approach relates environmental factors at the host population level to viral lineage dissemination, facilitating similar analyses of rapidly evolving pathogens in the future.

Assessing the perceived effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-Cov-2 transmission risk: an experimental study in Europe

We conduct a large (N = 6567) online experiment to measure the features of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that citizens of six European countries perceive to lower the risk of transmission of SARS-Cov-2 the most. We collected data in Bulgaria (n = 1069), France (n = 1108), Poland (n = 1104), Italy (n = 1087), Spain (n = 1102) and Sweden (n = 1097). Based on the features of the most widely adopted public health guidelines to reduce SARS-Cov-2 transmission (mask wearing vs not, outdoor vs indoor contact, short vs 90 min meetings, few vs many people present, and physical distancing of 1 or 2 m), we conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate the public's perceived risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in scenarios that presented mutually exclusive constellations of these features. Our findings indicate that participants' perception of transmission risk was most influenced by the NPI attributes of mask-wearing and outdoor meetings and the least by NPI attributes that focus on physical distancing, meeting duration, and meeting size. Differentiating by country, gender, age, cognitive style (reflective or intuitive), and perceived freight of COVID-19 moreover allowed us to identify important differences between subgroups. Our findings highlight the importance of improving health policy communication and citizens' health literacy about the design of NPIs and the transmission risk of SARS-Cov-2 and potentially future viruses.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and the Multi-Hit Hypothesis of Oncogenesis

Cancer is a complex and dynamic disease. The "hallmarks of cancer" were proposed by Hanahan and Weinberg (2000) as a group of biological competencies that human cells attain as they progress from normalcy to neoplastic transformation. These competencies include self-sufficiency in proliferative signaling, insensitivity to growth-suppressive signals and immune surveillance, the ability to evade cell death, enabling replicative immortality, reprogramming energy metabolism, inducing angiogenesis, and activating tissue invasion and metastasis. Underlying these competencies are genome instability, which expedites their acquisition, and inflammation, which fosters their function(s). Additionally, cancer exhibits another dimension of complexity: a heterogeneous repertoire of infiltrating and resident host cells, secreted factors, and extracellular matrix, known as the tumor microenvironment, that through a dynamic and reciprocal relationship with cancer cells supports immortality, local invasion, and metastatic dissemination. This staggering intricacy calls for caution when advising all people with cancer (or a previous history of cancer) to receive the COVID-19 primary vaccine series plus additional booster doses. Moreover, because these patients were not included in the pivotal clinical trials, considerable uncertainty remains regarding vaccine efficacy, safety, and the risk of interactions with anticancer therapies, which could reduce the value and innocuity of either medical treatment. After reviewing the available literature, we are particularly concerned that certain COVID-19 vaccines may generate a pro-tumorigenic milieu (i.e., a specific environment that could lead to neoplastic transformation) that predisposes some (stable) oncologic patients and survivors to cancer progression, recurrence, and/or metastasis. This hypothesis is based on biological plausibility and fulfillment of the multi-hit hypothesis of oncogenesis (i.e., induction of lymphopenia and inflammation, downregulation of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) expression, activation of oncogenic cascades, sequestration of tumor suppressor proteins, dysregulation of the RNA-G quadruplex-protein binding system, alteration of type I interferon responses, unsilencing of retrotransposable elements, etc.) together with growing evidence and safety reports filed to Vaccine Adverse Effects Report System (VAERS) suggesting that some cancer patients experienced disease exacerbation or recurrence following COVID-19 vaccination. In light of the above and because some of these concerns (i.e., alteration of oncogenic pathways, promotion of inflammatory cascades, and dysregulation of the renin-angiotensin system) also apply to cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, we encourage the scientific and medical community to urgently evaluate the impact of both COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination on cancer biology and tumor registries, adjusting public health recommendations accordingly.

Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 during Seven Consecutive Epidemiological Waves (2020-2022) in the North Bačka District, Serbia

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a threat to global public health. The purpose of this research was to determine the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in the North Bačka district while observing seven pandemic waves. The cross-sectional study was based on data from the COVID-19 surveillance database of the Institute for Public Health of Vojvodina during the period from March 2020 to December 2022. A total of 38,685 primary infections and 4067 reinfections caused by SARS-CoV-2 were notified. Pandemic waves caused by the Delta variant (cumulative incidence rate of 2482.37/100,000) and by the Omicron variant (cumulative incidence rate of 2994.45/100,000) emerged as significant focal points during the surveillance period. Over the course of three consecutive years (2020-2022), women were more affected (50.11%, 54.03%, and 55.68%, respectively). The highest incidence rates in age-specific categories were recorded in 2021 for the age group 40-49 (1345.32 per 10,000 inhabitants), while in 2022, they shifted towards the elderly population. Regarding vaccination status at the time of diagnosis, in 2021, around 15% of patients were vaccinated, while in 2022, the number increased to 37%. The most widely received vaccine was BBIBP-CorV (67.45%), followed by BNT162b2 (19.81%), Gam-COVID-Vac (9.31%), and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (3.42%) vaccine. The implementation of stringent public health measures and their mitigation, together with the emergence of new variants, influenced the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic waves in the North Bačka district. Notably, throughout the study period, the working-age population was the most affected, along with females, with a mild clinical presentation dominating. Reinfections were most frequently recorded during the latter pandemic waves. Dealing with this pandemic has provided some valuable lessons for the development of future strategies in the case of a similar public health crisis.

Using Regional Sero-Epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 Anti-S Antibodies in the Dominican Republic to Inform Targeted Public Health Response

Incidence of COVID-19 has been associated with sociodemographic factors. We investigated variations in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence at sub-national levels in the Dominican Republic and assessed potential factors influencing variation in regional-level seroprevalence. Data were collected in a three-stage cross-sectional national serosurvey from June to October 2021. Seroprevalence of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-S) was estimated and adjusted for selection probability, age, and sex. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of covariates on seropositivity for anti-S and correlates of 80% protection (PT80) against symptomatic infection for the ancestral and Delta strains. A total of 6683 participants from 134 clusters in all 10 regions were enrolled. Anti-S, PT80 for the ancestral and Delta strains odds ratio varied across regions, Enriquillo presented significant higher odds for all outcomes compared with Yuma. Compared to being unvaccinated, receiving ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a significantly higher odds of anti-S positivity (OR 85.94, [10.95-674.33]) and PT80 for the ancestral (OR 4.78, [2.15-10.62]) and Delta strains (OR 3.08, [1.57-9.65]) nationally and also for each region. Our results can help inform regional-level public health response, such as strategies to increase vaccination coverage in areas with low population immunity against currently circulating strains.

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number R 0 and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to R 0 . The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

The city-wide full-scale interactive application of sewage surveillance programme for assisting real-time COVID-19 pandemic control - A case study in Hong Kong

The paper discusses the implementation of Hong Kong's tailor-made sewage surveillance programme led by the Government, which has demonstrated how an efficient and well-organized sewage surveillance system can complement conventional epidemiological surveillance to facilitate the planning of intervention strategies and actions for combating COVID-19 pandemic in real-time. This included the setting up of a comprehensive sewerage network-based SARS-CoV-2 virus surveillance programme with 154 stationary sites covering 6 million people (or 80 % of the total population), and employing an intensive monitoring programme to take samples from each stationary site every 2 days. From 1 January to 22 May 2022, the daily confirmed case count started with 17 cases per day on 1 January to a maximum of 76,991 cases on 3 March and dropped to 237 cases on 22 May. During this period, a total of 270 "Restriction-Testing Declaration" (RTD) operations at high-risk residential areas were conducted based on the sewage virus testing results, where over 26,500 confirmed cases were detected with a majority being asymptomatic. In addition, Compulsory Testing Notices (CTN) were issued to residents, and the distribution of Rapid Antigen Test kits was adopted as alternatives to RTD operations in areas of moderate risk. These measures formulated a tiered and cost-effective approach to combat the disease in the local setting. Some ongoing and future enhancement efforts to improve efficacy are discussed from the perspective of wastewater-based epidemiology. Forecast models on case counts based on sewage virus testing results were also developed with R2 of 0.9669-0.9775, which estimated that up to 22 May 2022, around 2,000,000 people (~67 % higher than the total number of 1,200,000 reported to the health authority, due to various constraints or limitations) had potentially contracted the disease, which is believed to be reflecting the real situation occurring in a highly urbanized metropolis like Hong Kong.

Co-production of a feasibility trial of pacing interventions for Long COVID

BACKGROUND

The high incidence of COVID-19 globally has led to a large prevalence of Long COVID but there is a lack of evidence-based treatments. There is a need to evaluate existing treatments for symptoms associated with Long COVID. However, there is first a need to evaluate the feasibility of undertaking randomised controlled trials of interventions for the condition. We aimed to co-produce a feasibility study of non-pharmacological interventions to support people with Long COVID.

METHODS

A consensus workshop on research prioritisation was conducted with patients and other stakeholders. This was followed by the co-production of the feasibility trial with a group of patient partners, which included the design of the study, the selection of interventions, and the production of dissemination strategies.

RESULTS

The consensus workshop was attended by 23 stakeholders, including six patients. The consensus from the workshop was to develop a clinical trial platform that focused on testing different pacing interventions and resources. For the co-production of the feasibility trial, patient partners selected three pacing resources to evaluate (video, mobile application, and book) and co-designed feasibility study processes, study materials and undertook usability testing of the digital trial platform.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this paper reports the principles and process used to co-produce a feasibility study of pacing interventions for Long COVID. Co-production was effective and influenced important aspects of the study.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and urban vehicle mobility in Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control human mobility are important in preventing COVID-19 transmission. These interventions must also help effectively control the urban mobility of vehicles, which can be a safer travel mode during the pandemic, at any time and place. However, few studies have identified the effectiveness of vehicle mobility in terms of time and place. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at both local and national levels on intra- and inter-urban vehicle mobility by time of day in Seoul, South Korea, by applying the autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables. The study found that social distancing measures at the national level were effective for intra-urban vehicle mobility, especially at night-time, but not for inter-urban mobility. Information provision with emergency text messages by cell phone was effective in reducing vehicle mobility in daytime and night-time, but not during morning peak hours. At the local level, both restrictions on late-night transit operations and stricter social distancing measures were mostly significant in reducing night-time mobility only in intra-urban areas. The study also indicates when (what time of the day), where (which area within the city), and which combination strategy could be more effective in containing urban vehicle mobility. This study recommends that restrictions on human mobility should also be extended to vehicle mobility, especially in inter-urban areas and during morning peak hours, by systematically designing diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Predicted Impacts of Booster, Immunity Decline, Vaccination Strategies, and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Outcomes in France

The major economic and health consequences of COVID-19 called for various protective measures and mass vaccination campaigns. A previsional model was used to predict the future impacts of various measure combinations on COVID-19 mortality over a 400-day period in France. Calibrated on previous national hospitalization and mortality data, an agent-based epidemiological model was used to predict individual and combined effects of booster doses, vaccination of refractory adults, and vaccination of children, according to infection severity, immunity waning, and graded non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio and rapid immunity waning, booster doses would reduce COVID-19-related deaths by 50-70% with intensive NPIs and 93% with moderate NPIs. Vaccination of initially-refractory adults or children ≥5 years would half the number of deaths whatever the infection severity or degree of immunity waning. Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio, rapid immunity waning, moderate NPIs and booster doses, vaccinating children ≥12 years, ≥5 years, and ≥6 months would result in 6212, 3084, and 3018 deaths, respectively (vs. 87,552, 64,002, and 48,954 deaths without booster, respectively). In the same conditions, deaths would be 2696 if all adults and children ≥12 years were vaccinated and 2606 if all adults and children ≥6 months were vaccinated (vs. 11,404 and 3624 without booster, respectively). The model dealt successfully with single measures or complex combinations. It can help choosing them according to future epidemic features, vaccination extensions, and population immune status.

COVID-19 and isolation: Risks and implications in the scenario of new variants

With the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2, questions about transmissibility, vaccine efficacy, and impact on mortality are important to support decision-making in public health measures. Modifications related to transmissibility combined with the fact that much of the population has already been partially exposed to infection and/or vaccination, have stimulated recommendations to reduce the isolation period for COVID-19. However, these new guidelines have raised questions about their effectiveness in reducing contamination and minimizing impact in work environments. Therefore, a collaborative task force was developed to review the subject in a non-systematic manner, answering questions about SARS-CoV-2 variants, COVID-19 vaccines, isolation/quarantine periods, testing to end the isolation period, and the use of masks as mitigation procedures. Overall, COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing severe illness and death but are less effective in preventing infection in the case of the Omicron variant. Any strategy that is adopted to reduce the isolation period should take into consideration the epidemiological situation of the geographical region, individual clinical characteristics, and mask for source control. The use of tests for isolation withdrawal should be evaluated with caution, due to results depending on various conditions and may not be reliable.

Investigating COVID-19 Vaccine Impact on the Risk of Hospitalisation through the Analysis of National Surveillance Data Collected in Belgium

The national vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 started in January 2021 in Belgium. In the present study, we aimed to use national hospitalisation surveillance data to investigate the recent evolution of vaccine impact on the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation. We analysed aggregated data from 27,608 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between October 2021 and February 2022, stratified by age category and vaccination status. For each period, vaccination status, and age group, we estimated risk ratios (RR) corresponding to the ratio between the probability of being hospitalised following SARS-CoV-2 infection if belonging to the vaccinated population and the same probability if belonging to the unvaccinated population. In October 2021, a relatively high RR was estimated for vaccinated people > 75 years old, possibly reflecting waning immunity within this group, which was vaccinated early in 2021 and invited to receive the booster vaccination at that time. In January 2022, a RR increase was observed in all age categories coinciding with the dominance of the Omicron variant. Despite the absence of control for factors like comorbidities, previous infections, or time since the last administered vaccine, we showed that such real-time aggregated data make it possible to approximate trends in vaccine impact over time.