Optimal control analysis of Ebola disease with control strategies of quarantine and vaccination

Multivalent viral particles elicit safe and efficient immunoprotection against Nipah Hendra and Ebola viruses

Experimental vaccines for the deadly zoonotic Nipah (NiV), Hendra (HeV), and Ebola (EBOV) viruses have focused on targeting individual viruses, although their geographical and bat reservoir host overlaps warrant creation of multivalent vaccines. Here we explored whether replication-incompetent pseudotyped vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) virions or NiV-based virus-like particles (VLPs) were suitable multivalent vaccine platforms by co-incorporating multiple surface glycoproteins from NiV, HeV, and EBOV onto these virions. We then enhanced the vaccines' thermotolerance using carbohydrates to enhance applicability in global regions that lack cold-chain infrastructure. Excitingly, in a Syrian hamster model of disease, the VSV multivalent vaccine elicited safe, strong, and protective neutralizing antibody responses against challenge with NiV, HeV, or EBOV. Our study provides proof-of-principle evidence that replication-incompetent multivalent viral particle vaccines are sufficient to provide protection against multiple zoonotic deadly viruses with high pandemic potential.

Optimal control strategies for the reliable and competitive mathematical analysis of Covid-19 pandemic model

To understand dynamics of the COVID-19 disease realistically, a new SEIAPHR model has been proposed in this article where the infectious individuals have been categorized as symptomatic, asymptomatic, and super-spreaders. The model has been investigated for existence of a unique solution. To measure the contagiousness of COVID-19, reproduction numberR 0 is also computed using next generation matrix method. It is shown that the model is locally stable at disease-free equilibrium point whenR 0 < 1 and unstable forR 0 > 1 . The model has been analyzed for global stability at both of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Sensitivity analysis is also included to examine the effect of parameters of the model on reproduction numberR 0 . A couple of optimal control problems have been designed to study the effect of control strategies for disease control and eradication from the society. Numerical results show that the adopted control approaches are much effective in reducing new infections.

TIM-1 Augments Cellular Entry of Ebola Virus Species and Mutants, Which Is Blocked by Recombinant TIM-1 Protein

Ebola virus, a member of the Filoviridae family, utilizes the attachment factors on host cells to support its entry and cause severe tissue damage. TIM-1 has been identified as a predominant attachment factor via interaction with phosphatidylserine (PS) localized on the viral envelope and glycoprotein (GP). In this study, we give the first demonstration that TIM-1 enhances the cellular entry of three species of Ebola virus, as well as those harboring GP mutations (A82V, T544I, and A82V T544I). Furthermore, two TIM-1 variants (i.e., TIM-1-359aa and TIM-1-364aa) had comparable effects on promoting Zaire Ebola virus (EBOV) attachment, internalization, and infection. Importantly, recombinant TIM-1 ectodomain (ECD) protein could decrease the infectivity of Ebola virus and display synergistic inhibitory effects with ADI-15946, a monoclonal antibody with broad neutralizing activity to Ebola virus. Of note, EBOV strains harboring GP mutations (K510E and D552N), which were refractory to antibody treatment, were still sensitive to TIM-1 protein-mediated impairment of infectivity, indicating that TIM-1 protein may represent an alternative therapeutic regimen when antibody evasion occurs. IMPORTANCE The viral genome has acquired numerous mutations with the potential to increase transmission during the 2013-to-2016 outbreak of Ebola virus. EBOV strains harboring GP mutations (A82V, T544I, and A82V T544I), which have been identified to increase viral infectivity in humans, have attracted our attention. Herein, we give the first report that polymorphic TIM-1 enhances the infectivity of three species of Ebola virus, as well as those harboring GP mutations (A82V, T544I, and A82V T544I). We show that recombinant TIM-1 ECD protein could decrease the infectivity of Ebola virus with or without a point mutation and displays synergistic inhibitory effects with ADI-15946. Furthermore, TIM-1 protein potently blocked cell entry of antibody-evading Ebola virus species. These findings highlight the role of TIM-1 in Ebola virus infection and indicate that TIM-1 protein represents a potential therapeutic avenue for Ebola virus and its mutated species.

EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE DYNAMICS WITH SOME PREVENTIVE MEASURES: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2018–2020 KIVU OUTBREAK

To fight against Ebola virus disease, several measures have been adopted. Among them, isolation, safe burial and vaccination occupy a prominent place. In this paper, we present a model which takes into account these three control strategies as well as the indirect transmission through a polluted environment. The asymptotic behavior of our model is achieved. Namely, we determine a threshold value [Formula: see text] of the control reproduction number [Formula: see text], below which the disease is eliminated in the long run. Whenever the value of [Formula: see text] ranges from [Formula: see text] and 1, we prove the existence of a backward bifurcation phenomenon, which corresponds to the case, where a locally asymptotically stable positive equilibrium co-exists with the disease-free equilibrium, which is also locally asymptotically stable. The existence of this bifurcation complicates the control of Ebola, since the requirement of [Formula: see text] below one, although necessary, is no longer sufficient for the elimination of Ebola, more efforts need to be deployed. When the value of [Formula: see text] is greater than one, we prove the existence of a unique endemic equilibrium, locally asymptotically stable. That is the disease may persist and become endemic. Numerically, we fit our model to the reported data for the 2018–2020 Kivu Ebola outbreak which occurred in Democratic Republic of Congo. Through the sensitivity analysis of the control reproduction number, we prove that the transmission rates of infected alive who are outside hospital are the most influential parameters. Numerically, we explore the usefulness of isolation, safe burial combined with vaccination and investigate the importance to combine the latter control strategies to the educational campaigns or/and case finding.

Mathematical analysis for the effect of voluntary vaccination on the propagation of Corona virus pandemic

In this manuscript, a new nonlinear model for the rapidly spreading Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is developed. We incorporate an additional class of vaccinated humans which ascertains the impact of vaccination strategy for susceptible humans. A complete mathematical analysis of this model is conducted to predict the dynamics of Corona virus in the population. The analysis proves the effectiveness of vaccination strategy employed and helps public health services to control or to reduce the burden of corona virus pandemic. We first prove the existence and uniqueness and then boundedness and positivity of solutions. Threshold parameter for the vaccination model is computed analytically. Stability of the proposed model at fixed points is investigated analytically with the help of threshold parameter to examine epidemiological relevance of the pandemic. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle from the theory of Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of both the equilibria. Two well known numerical techniques namely Runge-Kutta method of order 4 (RK4), and the Non-Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) method are employed to solve the system of ODE's and to validate our obtained theoretical results. For different coverage levels of voluntary vaccination, we explored a complete quantitative analysis of the model. To draw our conclusions, the effect of proposed vaccination on threshold parameter is studied numerically. It is claimed that Corona virus disease could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory vaccination measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effect of vaccination strategy on a disease dynamics.

Using Proper Mean Generation Intervals in Modeling of COVID-19

In susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models, with the exponentially distributed duration of exposed/infectious statuses, the mean generation interval (GI, time lag between infections of a primary case and its secondary case) equals the mean latent period (LP) plus the mean infectious period (IP). It was widely reported that the GI for COVID-19 is as short as 5 days. However, many works in top journals used longer LP or IP with the sum (i.e., GI), e.g., >7 days. This discrepancy will lead to overestimated basic reproductive number and exaggerated expectation of infection attack rate (AR) and control efficacy. We argue that it is important to use suitable epidemiological parameter values for proper estimation/prediction. Furthermore, we propose an epidemic model to assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 for Belgium, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We estimated a time-varying reproductive number [R0(t)] based on the COVID-19 deaths data and we found that Belgium has the highest AR followed by Israel and the UAE.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations

Nigeria is second to South Africa with the highest reported cases of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we employ an SEIR-based compartmental model to study and analyze the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Nigeria. The model incorporates different group of populations (that is, high- and- moderate risk populations) and is use to investigate the influence on each population on the overall transmission dynamics.The model, which is fitted well to the data, is qualitatively analyzed to evaluate the impacts of different schemes for controlstrategies. Mathematical analysis reveals that the model has two equilibria; i.e., disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is local asymptotic stability (LAS) if the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) is less than 1; and unstable for R 0 > 1 , and an endemic equilibrium (EE) which is globally asymptotic stability (LAS) whenever R 0 > 1 . Furthermore, we find that the model undergoes a phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB, a coexistence of stable DFE and stable EE even if the R 0 < 1 ). We employ Partial Rank Correlation coefficients (PRCCs) for sensitivity analyses to evaluate the model's parameters. Our results highlight that proper surveillance, especially movement of individuals from high risk to moderate risk population, testing, as well as imposition of other NPIs measures are vital strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 epidemic in Nigeria. Besides, in the absence of an exact solution for the proposed model, we solve the model with the well-known ODE45 numerical solver and the effective numerical schemes such as Euler (EM), Runge-Kutta of order 2 (RK-2), and Runge-Kutta of order 4 (RK-4) in order to establish approximate solutions and to show the physical features of the model. It has been shown that these numerical schemes are very effective and efficient to establish superb approximate solutions for differential equations.

Application of reinforcement learning for effective vaccination strategies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Since December 2019, the new coronavirus has raged in China and subsequently all over the world. From the first days, researchers have tried to discover vaccines to combat the epidemic. Several vaccines are now available as a result of the contributions of those researchers. As a matter of fact, the available vaccines should be used in effective and efficient manners to put the pandemic to an end. Hence, a major problem now is how to efficiently distribute these available vaccines among various components of the population. Using mathematical modeling and reinforcement learning control approaches, the present article aims to address this issue. To this end, a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-type model with additional vaccine components is proposed. The proposed mathematical model can be used to simulate the consequences of vaccination policies. Then, the suppression of the outbreak is taken to account. The main objective is to reduce the effects of Covid-19 and its domino effects which stem from its spreading and progression. Therefore, to reach optimal policies, reinforcement learning optimal control is implemented, and four different optimal strategies are extracted. Demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed methods, finally, numerical simulations are presented.

Determination and estimation of optimal quarantine duration for infectious diseases with application to data analysis of COVID-19

Quarantine measure is a commonly used nonpharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of the quarantine. Different from the existing methods that determine a constant quarantine duration for everyone, we develop an individualized quarantine rule that suggests different quarantine durations for individuals with different characteristics. The proposed quarantine rule is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the average quarantine duration of uninfected people with the constraint that the probability of symptom presentation for infected people attains the given value closing to 1. The optimal solution for the quarantine duration is obtained and estimated by some statistical methods with application to analyzing COVID‐19 data.

The value of infectious disease modeling and trend assessment: a public health perspective

INTRODUCTION

Disease outbreaks of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic H1N1, H7N9, H5N1, Ebola, Zika, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and recently COVID-19 have raised the attention of the public over the past half-century. Revealing the characteristics and epidemic trends are important parts of disease control. The biological scenarios including transmission characteristics can be constructed and translated into mathematical models, which can help to predict and gain a deeper understanding of diseases.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses the models for infectious diseases and highlights their values in the field of public health. This information will be of interest to mathematicians and clinicians, and make a significant contribution toward the development of more specific and effective models. Literature searches were performed using the online database of PubMed (inception to August 2020).

EXPERT OPINION

Modeling could contribute to infectious disease control by means of predicting the scales of disease epidemics, indicating the characteristics of disease transmission, evaluating the effectiveness of interventions or policies, and warning or forecasting during the pre-outbreak of diseases. With the development of theories and the ability of calculations, infectious disease modeling would play a much more important role in disease prevention and control of public health.

Enhanced surveillance and response approaches for pilgrims and local Saudi populations against emerging Nipah, Zika and Ebola viral diseases outbreaks threats

Increasing emergence and spread of Nipah, ZIKV and Ebola case and potential outbreaks threats have been reported in several regions around the globe. Yet, emerging Nipah, Ebola and Zika viral diseases outbreaks have been indirectly linked to substantially globalization of trade and travel, climate change and intense urbanization impact, healthcare and socioeconomic inequities as well in affected community settings. Although no case has been documented in Saudi Arabia, there is a great risk of sudden emergence of any of these viruses and others via introducing among pilgrims coming from endemic regions during ritual ceremonies of mass gatherings. Consequently, promoting and investing on new and sensitive proven effective and innovative surveillance and monitoring approaches, including enhanced risk communication, improved integrated vectors surveillance in addition to improved sustainable highly pathogens surveillance control programs to human motility and environmental sanitation strategies all represent 'One Health' approach implementation strategic core. Initiation, development and implementation leaded by Saudi government and international stakeholders' of new partnership, coordinated response leadership and resource mobilization for multidisciplinary and intersectorial advocacy on emerging viral disease outbreaks, accompanied with R&D roadmap and taskforce is crucial. More efforts in epidemiological and laboratory early screening and surveillance of highly pathogenic germs/microbes, and confirmation of asymptomatic and syndromic cases amongst suspected Hajj and Umrah pilgrims, local vulnerable populations and expatriate workers is vital in generating reliable data and data sharing platform for timely risk communication and tourist information update, appropriate immunization campaigns or safe and efficacious care delivery implementation. Moreover, increase Hajj/Umrah mass gathering emergency outbreak preparedness, pilgrims health education and engagement outreach, pre-, during and post programs coverage and effectiveness is needed through One Health approach integration in attaining pilgrims and local population health safety and security, in advancing Saudi sustainable health development goals.

Estimation of the Excess COVID-19 Cases in Seoul, South Korea by the Students Arriving from China

Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from China, a country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has arrived in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in the Korean home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students from China, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and performed a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the number of the infected individuals would reach 40-72 from 12 March-24 March with the arrival of 0.2% of pre-infectious individuals. Furthermore, the number of isolated individuals would peak at 40-64 from 13 March-27 March in Seoul, South Korea. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics by the international student from China were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusions: To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine of the individuals from countries with the virus risk are warranted along with other containment policies.

Optimal Impulse Vaccination Approach for an SIR Control Model with Short-Term Immunity

Vaccines are not administered on a continuous basis, but injections are practically introduced at discrete times often separated by an important number of time units, and this differs depending on the nature of the epidemic and its associated vaccine. In addition, especially when it comes to vaccination, most optimization approaches in the literature and those that have been subject to epidemic models have focused on treating problems that led to continuous vaccination schedules but their applicability remains debatable. In search of a more realistic methodology to resolve this issue, a control modeling design, where the control can be characterized analytically and then optimized, can definitely help to find an optimal regimen of pulsed vaccinations. Therefore, we propose a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) hybrid epidemic model with impulse vaccination control and a compartment that represents the number of vaccinated individuals supposed to not acquire sufficient immunity to become permanently recovered due to the short-term effect of vaccines. A basic reproduction number, when the control is defined as a constant parameter, is calculated. Since we also need to find the optimal values of this impulse control when it is defined as a function of time, we start by stating a general form of an impulse version of Pontryagin’s maximum principle that can be adapted to our case, and then we apply it to our model. Finally, we provide our numerical simulations that are obtained via an impulse progressive-regressive iterative scheme with fixed intervals between impulse times (theoretical example of an impulse at each week), and we conclude with a discussion of our results.

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of Ebola virus disease to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of Ebola virus disease according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to Ebola virus disease. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, Ebola virus disease can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria as in Sections 4 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (d) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for Ebola virus disease according to Article 8(3) criteria are some species of non‐human primates, pigs and rodents as susceptible species and some species of fruit bats as reservoir, as indicated in the present opinion.