Current efforts towards safe and effective live attenuated vaccines against African swine fever: challenges and prospects

The African swine fever virus MGF300-4L protein is associated with viral pathogenicity by promoting the autophagic degradation of IKKβ and increasing the stability of IκBα

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, often fatal viral disease caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), which imposes a substantial economic burden on the global pig industry. When screening for the virus replication-regulating genes in the left variable region of the ASFV genome, we observed a notable reduction in ASFV replication following the deletion of the MGF300-4L gene. However, the role of MGF300-4L in ASFV infection remains unexplored. In this study, we found that MGF300-4L could effectively inhibit the production of proinflammatory cytokines IL-1β and TNF-α, which are regulated by the NF-κB signaling pathway. Mechanistically, we demonstrated that MGF300-4L interacts with IKKβ and promotes its lysosomal degradation via the chaperone-mediated autophagy. Meanwhile, the interaction between MGF300-4L and IκBα competitively inhibits the binding of the E3 ligase β-TrCP to IκBα, thereby inhibiting the ubiquitination-dependent degradation of IκBα. Remarkably, although ASFV encodes other inhibitors of NF-κB, the MGF300-4L gene-deleted ASFV (Del4L) showed reduced virulence in pigs, indicating that MGF300-4L plays a critical role in ASFV pathogenicity. Importantly, the attenuation of Del4L was associated with a significant increase in the production of IL-1β and TNF-α early in the infection of pigs. Our findings provide insights into the functions of MGF300-4L in ASFV pathogenicity, suggesting that MGF300-4L could be a promising target for developing novel strategies and live attenuated vaccines against ASF.

The MGF300-2R Protein of African Swine Fever Virus Promotes IKKβ Ubiquitination by Recruiting the E3 Ubiquitin Ligase TRIM21

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, hemorrhagic, highly contagious disease in pigs caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV). Our previous study identified that the ASFV MGF300-2R protein functions as a virulence factor and found that MGF300-2R degrades IKKβ via selective autophagy. However, the E3 ubiquitin ligase responsible for IKKβ ubiquitination during autophagic degradation still remains unknown. In order to solve this problem, we first pulled down 328 proteins interacting with MGF300-2R through immunoprecipitation-mass spectrometry. Next, we analyzed and confirmed the interaction between the E3 ubiquitin ligase TRIM21 and MGF300-2R and demonstrated the catalytic role of TRIM21 in IKKβ ubiquitination. Finally, we indicated that the degradation of IKKβ by MGF300-2R was dependent on TRIM21. In summary, our results indicate TRIM21 is the E3 ubiquitin ligase involved in the degradation of IKKβ by MGF300-2R, thereby augmenting our understanding of the functions of MGF300-2R and offering insights into the rational design of live attenuated vaccines and antiviral strategies against ASF.

Discovery of a potent inhibitor, D-132, targeting AsfvPolX, via protein-DNA complex-guided pharmacophore screening and in vitro molecular characterizations

The heightened transmissibility and capacity of African swine fever virus (ASFV) induce fatal diseases in domestic pigs and wild boars, posing significant economic repercussions and global threats. Despite extensive research efforts, the development of potent vaccines or treatments for ASFV remains a persistent challenge. Recently, inhibiting the AsfvPolX, a key DNA repair enzyme, emerges as a feasible strategy to disrupt viral replication and control ASFV infections. In this study, a comprehensive approach involving pharmacophore-based inhibitor screening, coupled with biochemical and biophysical analyses, were implemented to identify, characterize, and validate potential inhibitors targeting AsfvPolX. The constructed pharmacophore model, Phar-PolX-S, demonstrated efficacy in identifying a potent inhibitor, D-132 (IC50 = 2.8 ± 0.2 µM), disrupting the formation of the AsfvPolX-DNA complex. Notably, D-132 exhibited strong binding to AsfvPolX (KD = 6.9 ± 2.2 µM) through a slow-on-fast-off binding mechanism. Employing molecular modeling, it was elucidated that D-132 predominantly binds in-between the palm and finger domains of AsfvPolX, with crucial residues (R42, N48, Q98, E100, F102, and F116) identified as hotspots for structure-based inhibitor optimization. Distinctively characterized by a 1,2,5,6-tetrathiocane with modifications at the 3 and 8 positions involving ethanesulfonates, D-132 holds considerable promise as a lead compound for the development of innovative agents to combat ASFV infections.

CRISPR/Cas14 and G-Quadruplex DNAzyme-Driven Biosensor for Paper-Based Colorimetric Detection of African Swine Fever Virus

The highly contagious nature and 100% fatality rate contribute to the ongoing and expanding impact of the African swine fever virus (ASFV), causing significant economic losses worldwide. Herein, we developed a cascaded colorimetric detection using the combination of a CRISPR/Cas14a system, G-quadruplex DNAzyme, and microfluidic paper-based analytical device. This CRISPR/Cas14a-G4 biosensor could detect ASFV as low as 5 copies/μL and differentiate the wild-type and mutated ASFV DNA with 2-nt difference. Moreover, this approach was employed to detect ASFV in porcine plasma. A broad linear detection range was observed, and the limit of detection in spiked porcine plasma was calculated to be as low as 42-85 copies/μL. Our results indicate that the developed paper platform exhibits the advantages of high sensitivity, excellent specificity, and low cost, making it promising for clinical applications in the field of DNA disease detection and suitable for popularization in low-resourced areas.

Saccharomyces cerevisiae oral immunization in mice using multi-antigen of the African swine fever virus elicits a robust immune response

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is one of the most complex viruses. ASFV is a serious threat to the global swine industry because no commercial vaccines against this virus are currently available except in Vietnam. Moreover, ASFV is highly stable in the environment and can survive in water, feed, and aerosols for a long time. ASFV is transmitted through the digestive and respiratory tract. Mucosal immunity is the first line of defense against ASFV. Saccharomyces cerevisiae (SC), which has been certified by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and has a generally recognized as safe status in the food industry, was used for oral immunization in this study. ASFV antigens were effectively expressed in recombinant SC strains with high DNA copy numbers and stable growth though surface display technology and chromosome engineering (δ-integration). The recombinant SC strains containing eight ASFV antigens-KP177R, E183L, E199L, CP204L, E248R, EP402R, B602L, and B646L- induced strong humoral and mucosal immune responses in mice. There was no antigenic competition, and these antigens induced Th1 and Th2 cellular immune responses. Therefore, the oral immunization strategy using recombinant SC strains containing multiple ASFV antigens demonstrate potential for future testing in swine, including challenge studies to evaluate its efficacy as a vaccine against ASFV.

A Cell-Adapted Live-Attenuated Vaccine Candidate Protects Pigs against the Homologous Strain VNUA-ASFV-05L1, a Representative Strain of the Contemporary Pandemic African Swine Fever Virus

African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal and highly contagious transboundary animal disease with the potential for rapid international spread. Currently, there is no ASF vaccine commercially available. All infected animals must be isolated and culled immediately upon the confirmation of the presence of the virus. Studies leading to the rational development of protective ASF vaccines are urgently needed. Here, we generated a safe and efficacious live-attenuated vaccine (LAV) VNUA-ASFV-LAVL2 by serially passaging a field isolate (VNUA-ASFV-05L1, genotype II) in porcine alveolar macrophages (PAMs, 65 passages) and an immortalized porcine alveolar macrophage cell line (3D4/21, 55 passages). VNUA-ASFV-LAVL2 can efficiently replicate in both PAMs and 3D4/21 cells. It provides 100% protection, even with the low dose of 102 HAD50, to the vaccinated pigs against the challenge of contemporary pandemic ASFV field isolate. Pigs vaccinated with this LAV in a dose range of 102 to 105 HAD50 remained clinically healthy during both the 28-day observation period of immunization and the 28-day observation period of challenge. VNUA-ASFV-LAVL2 was eliminated from blood by 28 days post-inoculation (DPI), and from feces or oral fluids by 17 DPI. Although the vaccine strain in serum remained a safe and attenuated phenotype after five passages in swine, a reversion-to-virulence study using blood or tissue homogenates at peak viremia will be conducted in the future. ASFV-specific IgG antibodies and significant cellular immunity were detected in vaccinated pigs before the ASFV challenge. These results indicate that the VNUA-ASFV-LAVL2 strain is a safe and efficacious LAV against the genotype II ASFV strain responsible for current ASF outbreaks in Asia.

The MGF300-2R protein of African swine fever virus is associated with viral pathogenicity by promoting the autophagic degradation of IKKα and IKKβ through the recruitment of TOLLIP

The multigene family genes (MGFs) in the left variable region (LVR) of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) genome have been reported to be involved in viral replication in primary porcine alveolar macrophages (PAMs) and virulence in pigs. However, the exact functions of key MGFs in the LVR that regulate the replication and virulence of ASFV remain unclear. In this study, we identified the MGF300-2R gene to be critical for viral replication in PAMs by deleting different sets of MGFs in the LVR from the highly virulent strain ASFV HLJ/18 (ASFV-WT). The ASFV mutant lacking the MGF300-2R gene (Del2R) showed a 1-log reduction in viral titer, and induced higher IL-1β and TNF-α production in PAMs than did ASFV-WT. Mechanistically, the MGF300-2R protein was found to interact with and degrade IKKα and IKKβ via the selective autophagy pathway. Furthermore, we showed that MGF300-2R promoted the K27-linked polyubiquitination of IKKα and IKKβ, which subsequently served as a recognition signal for the cargo receptor TOLLIP-mediated selective autophagic degradation. Importantly, Del2R exhibited a significant reduction in both replication and virulence compared with ASFV-WT in pigs, likely due to the increased IL-1β and TNF-α, indicating that MGF300-2R is a virulence determinant. These findings reveal that MGF300-2R suppresses host innate immune responses by mediating the degradation of IKKα and IKKβ, which provides clues to paving the way for the rational design of live attenuated vaccines to control ASF.

A Safe and Efficient Double-Gene-Deleted Live Attenuated Immersion Vaccine to Prevent the Disease Caused by the Infectious Spleen and Kidney Necrosis Virus

Infectious diseases seriously threaten sustainable aquaculture development, resulting in more than $10 billion in economic losses annually. Immersion vaccines are emerging as the key technology for aquatic disease prevention and control. Here, a safe and efficacious candidate immersion vaccine strain (Δorf103r/tk) of infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus (ISKNV), in which the orf103r and tk genes were knocked out by homologous recombination, is described. Δorf103r/tk was severely attenuated in mandarin fish (Siniperca chuatsi), inducing mild histological lesions, a mortality rate of only 3%, and eliminated within 21 days. A single Δorf103r/tk immersion-administered dose provided long-lasting protection rates over 95% against lethal ISKNV challenge. Δorf103r/tk also robustly stimulated the innate and adaptive immune responses. For example, interferon expression was significantly upregulated, and the production of specific neutralizing antibodies against ISKNV was markedly induced postimmunization. This work provides proof-of-principle evidence for orf103r- and tk-deficient ISKNV for immersion vaccine development to prevent ISKNV disease in aquaculture production. IMPORTANCE Global aquaculture production reached a record of 122.6 million tons in 2020, with a total value of 281.5 billion U.S. dollars (USD). However, approximately 10% of farmed aquatic animal production is lost due to various infectious diseases, resulting in more than 10 billion USD of economic waste every year. Therefore, the development of vaccines to prevent and control aquatic infectious diseases is of great significance. Infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus (ISKNV) infection occurs in more than 50 species of freshwater and marine fish and has caused great economic losses to the mandarin fish farming industry in China during the past few decades. Thus, it is listed as a certifiable disease by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Herein, a safe and efficient double-gene-deleted live attenuated immersion vaccine against ISKNV was developed, providing an example for the development of aquatic gene-deleted live attenuated immersion vaccine.

African Swine Fever Virus MGF505-7R Interacts with Interferon Regulatory Factor 9 to Evade the Type I Interferon Signaling Pathway and Promote Viral Replication

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute and severe infectious disease caused by the ASF virus (ASFV). The mortality rate of ASF in pigs can reach 100%, causing huge economic losses to the pig industry. Here, we found that ASFV protein MGF505-7R inhibited the beta interferon (IFN-β)-mediated Janus-activated kinase-signal transducer and activation of transcription (JAK-STAT) signaling. Our results demonstrate that MGF505-7R inhibited interferon-stimulated gene factor 3 (ISGF3)-mediated IFN-stimulated response element (ISRE) promoter activity. Importantly, we observed that MGF505-7R inhibits ISGF3 heterotrimer formation by interacting with interferon regulatory factor 9 (IRF9) and inhibits the nuclear translocation of ISGF3. Moreover, to demonstrate the role of MGF505-7R in IFN-I signal transduction during ASFV infection, we constructed and evaluated ASFV-ΔMGF505-7R recombinant viruses. ASFV-ΔMGF505-7R restored STAT2 and STAT1 phosphorylation, alleviated the inhibition of ISGF3 nuclear translocation, and showed increased susceptibility to IFN-β, unlike the parental GZ201801 strain. In conclusion, our study shows that ASFV protein MGF505-7R plays a key role in evading IFN-I-mediated innate immunity, revealing a new mode of evasion for ASFV. IMPORTANCE ASF, caused by ASFV, is currently prevalent in Eurasia, with mortality rates reaching 100% in pigs. At present, there are no safe or effective vaccines against ASFV. In this study, we found that the ASFV protein MGF505-7R hinders IFN-β signaling by interacting with IRF9 and inhibiting the formation of ISGF3 heterotrimers. Of note, we demonstrated that MGF505-7R plays a role in the immune evasion of ASFV in infected hosts and that recombinant viruses alleviated the effect on type I IFN (IFN-I) signaling and exhibited increased susceptibility to IFN-β. This study provides a theoretical basis for developing vaccines against ASFV using strains with MGF505-7R gene deletions.

Summary of the Current Status of African Swine Fever Vaccine Development in China

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal and contagious disease of domestic pigs and wild boars. There is still no credible commercially available vaccine. The only existing one, issued in Vietnam, is actually used in limited quantities in limited areas, for large-scale clinical evaluation. ASF virus is a large complex virus, not inducing full neutralizing antibodies, with multiple genotypes and a lack of comprehensive research on virus infection and immunity. Since it was first reported in China in August 2018, ASF has spread rapidly across the country. To prevent, control, further purify and eradicate ASF, joint scientific and technological research on ASF vaccines has been carried out in China. In the past 4 years (2018–2022), several groups in China have been funded for the research and development of various types of ASF vaccines, achieving marked progress and reaching certain milestones. Here, we have provided a comprehensive and systematic summary of all of the relevant data regarding the current status of the development of ASF vaccines in China to provide a reference for further progress worldwide. At present, the further clinical application of the ASF vaccine still needs a lot of tests and research accumulation.

Multiple-probe-assisted DNA capture and amplification for high-throughput African swine fever virus detection

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most devastating infectious diseases affecting domestic pigs and wild boar. The grave socio-economic impact of African swine fever infection at a global level makes large-scale rapid and robust diagnosis a critical step towards effective control. Here, we describe multiple-probe-assisted DNA capture and amplification technology (MADCAT) - a novel, sensitive, simple, and high-throughput method for detecting ASFV directly from whole blood or other complex matrices. Through a unique DNA capture approach which specifically captures the target DNA onto 96-well plate for subsequent amplification, MADCAT abandons the complicated extraction protocol and achieves ultrafast and high-throughput detection. The sample-to-result time for 96 samples is about 90 min, as compared with the 3-4 h time of the conventional real-time qPCR method. The limit of detection (LOD) of MADCAT is 0.5 copies/μL blood and is 5 times more sensitive than an extraction-based qPCR assay when testing serially diluted whole blood samples. The assay is 100% specific against other common swine pathogens. In the clinical diagnosis of 96 field samples, all 22 positive samples were correctly identified with lower Ct values than extraction-based qPCR, confirming its high diagnostic sensitivity (100%). Owing to its high-throughput, specific high sensitivity, and direct detection features, MADCAT shows great potential for use in large-scale ASFV surveillance and monitoring for effective disease control. KEY POINTS: • No nucleic acid extraction, 100% capture efficiency, and high-throughput • Ultra-high sensitivity of 0.5 DNA copies/μL or 6 DNA copies/reaction • The sample-to-answer time for 96 samples is about 90 min.

Patterns of ASFV Transmission in Domestic Pigs in Serbia

The first case of African swine fever in domestic pigs in Serbia was in 2019. The following year, the disease was confirmed in wild boar. Thenceforth, ASF has been continuously reported in both wild and domestic pigs. The outbreaks in domestic pigs could not be linked directly to wild boars, even though wild boars were endemically infected, and reservoirs for ASF. This study aimed to investigate outbreaks and routes of transmission in domestic pigs in a region of central Serbia where no outbreaks in wild boar were reported. Fourteen outbreaks of ASF on backyard farms with low biosecurity were traced back, and no connection to wild boar was found. The epidemic investigation covered 2094 holdings, with 24,368 pigs, out of which 1882 were tested for ASF. In surrounding hunting grounds, field searches were conducted. Dead wild boars were found, and 138 hunted wild boars were negative for ASFV. It was concluded that outbreaks in 2021 were provoked by the illegal trade of live animals and pig products. Even though infective pressure from wild boars is assumed, no positive cases have been found, while the ASFV spreads within the domestic swine population evidenced in four recent outbreaks in 2022.

Identification of Two Novel Linear B Cell Epitopes on the CD2v Protein of African Swine Fever Virus Using Monoclonal Antibodies

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly infectious viral pathogen that endangers the global pig industry, and no effective vaccine is available thus far. The CD2v protein is a glycoprotein on the outer envelope of ASFV, which mediates the transmission of the virus in the blood and recognition of the virus serotype, playing an important role in ASFV vaccine development and disease prevention. Here, we generated two specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), 6C11 and 8F12 (subtype IgG1/kappa-type), against the ASFV CD2v extracellular domain (CD2v-ex, GenBank: MK128995.1, 1-588 bp) and characterized their specificity. Peptide scanning technology was used to identify the epitopes recognized by mAbs 6C11 and 8F12. As a result, two novel B cell epitopes, 38DINGVSWN45 and 134GTNTNIY140, were defined. Amino acid sequence alignment showed that the defined epitopes were conserved in all referenced ASFV strains from various regions of China including the highly pathogenic, epidemic strain, Georgia2007/1 (NC_044959.2), with the same noted substitutions compared to the four foreign ASFV wild-type strains. This study provides important reference values for the design and development of an ASFV vaccine and useful biological materials for the functional study of the CD2v protein by deletion analysis.

Modulation of Host Antiviral Innate Immunity by African Swine Fever Virus: A Review

African swine fever (ASF), caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a highly contagious and fatal disease found in swine. However, the viral proteins and mechanisms responsible for immune evasion are poorly understood, which has severely hindered the development of vaccines. This review mainly focuses on studies involving the innate antiviral immune response of the host and summarizes the latest studies on ASFV genes involved in interferon (IFN) signaling and inflammatory responses. We analyzed the effects of candidate viral proteins on ASFV infection, replication and pathogenicity and identified potential molecular targets for novel ASFV vaccines. These efforts will contribute to the construction of novel vaccines and wonder therapeutics for ASF.

The 24.5-kb Left Variable Region Is Not a Determinant for African Swine Fever Virus to Replicate in Primary Porcine Alveolar Macrophages

African swine fever (ASF) is a widespread hemorrhagic and highly contagious infectious disease caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), currently threatening the pig industry worldwide. Here, we demonstrated that the cell-adapted strain ASFV-P121 with a 24.5-kb deletion in the left variable region (LVR) lost the ability to replicate in primary porcine alveolar macrophages (PAMs). To explore whether this deletion determines the inability of ASFV-P121 replication in PAMs, a mutant virus (ASFV-ΔLVR) with the same LVR deletion as ASFV-P121 was constructed based on the wild-type ASFV HLJ/18 (ASFV-WT). However, the growth titer of ASFV-ΔLVR only reduced 10-fold compared with ASFV-WT in PAMs. Furthermore, we found that the large deletion of the LVR does not affect the formation of virus factories and virion morphogenesis. These findings reveal important implications for analyzing the molecular mechanism of ASFV cell tropism change.

African Swine Fever Control and Prevention: An Update on Vaccine Development

African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal and highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs, listed as a notifiable disease reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Despite its limited host range and absent zoonotic potential, the socio-economic and environmental impact of ASF is very high, representing a serious threat to the global swine industry and the many stakeholders involved. Currently, only control and eradication measures based mainly on early detection and strict stamping-out policies are available, however, the rapid spread of the disease in new countries, and in new regions in countries already affected, show these strategies to be lacking. In this review, we discuss approaches to ASF vaccinology, with emphasis on the advances made over the last decade, including the development of virulence-associated gene deleted strains such as the very promising ASFV-G-ΔI177L/ΔLVR, that replicates efficiently in a stable porcine epithelial cell line, and the cross-protecting BA71ΔCD2 capable of stably growing in the commercial COS-1 cell line, or the naturally attenuated Lv17/WB/Rie1 which shows solid protection in wild boar. We also consider the key constraints involved in the scale-up and commercialization of promising live attenuated and virus-vectored vaccine candidates, namely cross-protection, safety, lack of suitable animal models, compatibility with wildlife immunization, availability of established and licensed cell lines, and differentiating infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) strategy.

The Development of a Multiplex Real-Time Quantitative PCR Assay for the Differential Detection of the Wild-Type Strain and the MGF505-2R, EP402R and I177L Gene-Deleted Strain of the African Swine Fever Virus

Simple Summary

African swine fever (ASF) was first reported in August 2018 in China, and the naturally gene-deleted ASFV strain was first identified in 2020 in this country. The vaccine candidates that deleted some virulent genes from the virulent parental strains have also been reported in many countries. To differentiate the wild-type and gene-deleted ASFV strains, four pairs of specific primers and TaqMan probes targeting the ASFV B646L (p72), I177L, MGF505-2R and EP402R (CD2v) genes were designed. After optimizing the reaction conditions, a multiplex real-time qPCR assay for the differential detection of the wild-type and gene-deleted ASFV strains was developed. The assay was further used to test 4239 clinical samples, and 534 samples were positive for ASFV, of which 30 samples lacked B646L, I177L, MGF505-2R and/or EP402R genes. The assay showed high specificity, sensitivity and repeatability, and it provided a reliable method for evaluating ASFV in clinical samples.

Abstract

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes African swine fever (ASF), a devastating hemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs and wild boars. Currently, the MGF505R, EP402R (CD2v) and I177L gene-deleted ASFV strains were confirmed to be the ideal vaccine candidate strains. To develop an assay for differentiating the wild-type and gene-deleted ASFV strains, four pairs of specific primers and TaqMan probes targeting the ASFV B646L (p72), I177L, MGF505-2R and EP402R (CD2v) genes were designed. A multiplex real-time qPCR assay for the differential detection of the wild-type and gene-deleted ASFV strains was developed after optimizing the reaction conditions, including the annealing temperature, primer concentration and probe concentration. The results showed that the multiplex real-time qPCR assay can specifically test the ASFV B646L (p72), I177L, MGF505-2R and EP402R (CD2v) genes with a limit of detection (LOD) of 32.1 copies/μL for the B646L (p72) gene, and 3.21 copies/μL for the I177L, MGF505-2R and EP402R (CD2v) genes. However, the assay cannot test for the classical swine fever virus (CSFV), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV), porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2), PCV3 and pseudorabies virus (PRV). The assay demonstrated good repeatability and reproducibility with coefficients of variation (CV) less than 1.56% for both the intra- and inter-assay. The assay was used to test 4239 clinical samples, and the results showed that 12.60% (534/4239) samples were positive for ASFV, of which 10 samples lacked the EP402R gene, 6 samples lacked the MGF505-2R gene and 14 samples lacked the EP402R and MGF505-2R genes. The results indicated that the multiplex real-time qPCR developed in this study can provide a rapid, sensitive and specific diagnostic tool for the differential detection of the ASFV B646L, I177L, MGF505-2R and EP402R genes.

Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.