Prognostication after intracerebral hemorrhage: a review

Non-Invasive Brain Stimulation to Improve Functional Recovery and Predict Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Narrative Review

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a leading cause of stroke-related mortality and long-term disability, with initial ICH volume, age, location of the hemorrhage, and clinical severity being key predictors of outcome. While clinical scores incorporating these elements are validated and exhibit good inter-rater reliability, their accuracy in predicting long-term recovery remains suboptimal. Non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) has emerged as a potential adjunct for improving both prognostication and functional recovery in ICH survivors. Despite promising results, heterogeneity in stimulation protocols, patients' populations, and outcome measures have prevented NIBS implementation in clinical practice. This narrative review summarizes the available evidence on the association between NIBS, outcome prediction and functional recovery, discussing current challenges and future perspectives.

ICH-PRNet: a cross-modal intracerebral haemorrhage prognostic prediction method using joint-attention interaction mechanism

Accurately predicting intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) prognosis is a critical and indispensable step in the clinical management of patients post-ICH. Recently, integrating artificial intelligence, particularly deep learning, has significantly enhanced prediction accuracy and alleviated neurosurgeons from the burden of manual prognosis assessment. However, uni-modal methods have shown suboptimal performance due to the intricate pathophysiology of the ICH. On the other hand, existing cross-modal approaches that incorporate tabular data have often failed to effectively extract complementary information and cross-modal features between modalities, thereby limiting their prognostic capabilities. This study introduces a novel cross-modal network, ICH-PRNet, designed to predict ICH prognosis outcomes. Specifically, we propose a joint-attention interaction encoder that effectively integrates computed tomography images and clinical texts within a unified representational space. Additionally, we define a multi-loss function comprising three components to comprehensively optimize cross-modal fusion capabilities. To balance the training process, we employ a self-adaptive dynamic prioritization algorithm that adjusts the weights of each component, accordingly. Our model, through these innovative designs, establishes robust semantic connections between modalities and uncovers rich, complementary cross-modal information, thereby achieving superior prediction results. Extensive experimental results and comparisons with state-of-the-art methods on both in-house and publicly available datasets unequivocally demonstrate the superiority and efficacy of the proposed method. Our code is at https://github.com/YU-deep/ICH-PRNet.git.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction for In-Hospital Mortality After Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage Using Real-World Clinical and Image Data

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) techniques are widely employed across various domains to achieve accurate predictions. This study assessed the effectiveness of ML in predicting early mortality risk among patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in real-world settings.

METHODS AND RESULTS

ML-based models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality in 527 patients with ICH using raw brain imaging data from brain computed tomography and clinical data. The models' performances were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots, comparing them with traditional risk scores such as the ICH score and ICH grading scale. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to examine the post-ICH survival rates, stratified by ML-based risk assessment. The net benefit of ML-based models was evaluated using decision curve analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86-0.95) for the ICH score, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.97) for the ICH grading scale, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.91) for the ML-based model fitted with raw image data only, and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.76-0.93) for the ML-based model fitted using clinical data without specialist expertise. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased significantly to 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-0.99) when the ML model was fitted using clinical and image data assessed by specialists. All ML-based models demonstrated good calibration, and the survival rates showed significant differences between risk groups. Decision curve analysis indicated the highest net benefit when utilizing the findings assessed by specialists.

CONCLUSIONS

ML-based prediction models exhibit satisfactory performance in predicting post-ICH in-hospital mortality when utilizing raw imaging data or nonspecialist input. Nevertheless, incorporating specialist expertise notably improves performance.

Integrating parent voices into research at the extremes of prematurity: what are we doing and where should we go?

When a baby is born premature, a landscape of potential problems replaces an imagined future. Outcomes become the measures of success. Researchers are recognizing that we need the direct input of parents to select meaningful outcomes. In this article, we describe how researchers and clinicians in neonatology have historically defined outcomes and the limitations of these methods. We chart the integration of stakeholders-patients and parents-into outcomes selection. 'Parent-important outcomes' are those deemed most important by parents, as the voices of their children. We outline a path toward determining parent-important outcomes in neonatology through mixed methods research. We conclude by suggesting how parent-important outcomes can be integrated into neonatal follow up research and clinical trial design. Ultimately, all researchers of prematurity aim in some way to improve outcomes that parents and patients care about. We hope this article will remind us of this beacon.

A Survey of Surrogates and Health Care Professionals Indicates Support of Cognitive Motor Dissociation-Assisted Prognostication

BACKGROUND

Prognostication of patients with acute disorders of consciousness is imprecise but more accurate technology-supported predictions, such as cognitive motor dissociation (CMD), are emerging. CMD refers to the detection of willful brain activation following motor commands using functional magnetic resonance imaging or machine learning-supported analysis of the electroencephalogram in clinically unresponsive patients. CMD is associated with long-term recovery, but acceptance by surrogates and health care professionals is uncertain. The objective of this study was to determine receptiveness for CMD to inform goals of care (GoC) decisions and research participation among health care professionals and surrogates of behaviorally unresponsive patients.

METHODS

This was a two-center study of surrogates of and health care professionals caring for unconscious patients with severe neurological injury who were enrolled in two prospective US-based studies. Participants completed a 13-item survey to assess demographics, religiosity, minimal acceptable level of recovery, enthusiasm for research participation, and receptiveness for CMD to support GoC decisions.

RESULTS

Completed surveys were obtained from 196 participants (133 health care professionals and 63 surrogates). Across all respondents, 93% indicated that they would want their loved one or the patient they cared for to participate in a research study that supports recovery of consciousness if CMD were detected, compared to 58% if CMD were not detected. Health care professionals were more likely than surrogates to change GoC with a positive (78% vs. 59%, p = 0.005) or negative (83% vs. 59%, p = 0.0002) CMD result. Participants who reported religion was the most important part of their life were least likely to change GoC with or without CMD. Participants who identified as Black (odds ratio [OR] 0.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.04-0.36) or Hispanic/Latino (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.2-0.75) and those for whom religion was the most important part of their life (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05-0.64) were more likely to accept a lower minimum level of recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

Technology-supported prognostication and enthusiasm for clinical trial participation was supported across a diverse spectrum of health care professionals and surrogate decision-makers. Education for surrogates and health care professionals should accompany integration of technology-supported prognostication.

Predictive Accuracy of Clinicians Estimates of Death and Recovery after Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Pre-Specified Analysis in INTERACT3 Study

INTRODUCTION

Accurately predicting a patient's prognosis is an important component of decision-making in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to determine clinicians' ability to predict survival, functional recovery, and return to premorbid activities in patients with ICH.

METHODS

Pre-specified secondary analysis of the third intensive care bundle with blood pressure reduction in acute cerebral hemorrhage trial (INTERACT3), an international, multicenter, stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial. Clinician perspectives on prognosis were collected at hospital admission and Day 7 (or before discharge). Prognosis questions were the likelihood of (i) survival at 48 h and 6 months, (ii) favorable functional outcome (recovery walking and self-care), and (iii) return to usual activities at 6 months. Clinician predictions were compared with actual outcomes.

RESULTS

Most clinician participants were from neurosurgery (75%) with a median of 8 working years (IQR 5-14) of experience. Of the 6,305 randomized patients who survived 48 h, 213 (3.4%) were predicted to die (positive predictive value [PPV] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-0.99). Of 5,435 patients who survived 6 months, 209 (3.8%) were predicted to die (PPV 0.93, 95% CI: 0.92-0.93). Predictions on the favorable functional outcome (PPV 0.54, 95% CI: 0.52-0.56) and satisfied ability to return to usual activities (PPV 0.50, 95% CI: 0.49-0.52) were poor. Prediction accuracy varied by working years and region of practice.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ICH, clinician estimates of death are very good but conversely they are poor in predicting higher levels of functional recovery and activities.

Clinical and subclinical acute brain injury caused by invasive cardiovascular procedures

Over the past 50 years, the number and invasiveness of percutaneous cardiovascular procedures globally have increased substantially. However, cardiovascular interventions are inherently associated with a risk of acute brain injury, both periprocedurally and postprocedurally, which impairs medical outcomes and increases health-care costs. Current international clinical guidelines generally do not cover the area of acute brain injury related to cardiovascular invasive procedures. In this international Consensus Statement, we compile the available knowledge (including data on prevalence, pathophysiology, risk factors, clinical presentation and management) to formulate consensus recommendations on the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of acute brain injury caused by cardiovascular interventions. We also identify knowledge gaps and possible future directions in clinical research into acute brain injury related to cardiovascular interventions.

Recovery of consciousness after acute brain injury: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Disorders of consciousness (DoC) are frequently encountered in both, acute and chronic brain injuries. In many countries, early withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments is common practice for these patients even though the accuracy of predicting recovery is debated and delayed recovery can be seen. In this review, we will discuss theoretical concepts of consciousness and pathophysiology, explore effective strategies for management, and discuss the accurate prediction of long-term clinical outcomes. We will also address research challenges.

MAIN TEXT

DoC are characterized by alterations in arousal and/or content, being classified as coma, unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state, minimally conscious state, and confusional state. Patients with willful modulation of brain activity detectable by functional MRI or EEG but not by behavioral examination is a state also known as covert consciousness or cognitive motor dissociation. This state may be as common as every 4th or 5th patient without behavioral evidence of verbal command following and has been identified as an independent predictor of long-term functional recovery. Underlying mechanisms are uncertain but intact arousal and thalamocortical projections maybe be essential. Insights into the mechanisms underlying DoC will be of major importance as these will provide a framework to conceptualize treatment approaches, including medical, mechanical, or electoral brain stimulation.

CONCLUSIONS

We are beginning to gain insights into the underlying mechanisms of DoC, identifying novel advanced prognostication tools to improve the accuracy of recovery predictions, and are starting to conceptualize targeted treatments to support the recovery of DoC patients. It is essential to determine how these advancements can be implemented and benefit DoC patients across a range of clinical settings and global societal systems. The Curing Coma Campaign has highlighted major gaps knowledge and provides a roadmap to advance the field of coma science with the goal to support the recovery of patients with DoC.

Acute Myocardial Injury in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Secondary Observational Analysis of the FAST Trial

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial injury is associated with poor outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke, but its prognostic significance in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage remains unclear. We investigated whether acute myocardial injury and the direction of the cardiac troponin I (cTnI) change (rising versus falling) affect post-intracerebral hemorrhage outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We re-analyzed the FAST (Factor-Seven-for-Acute-Hemorrhagic-Stroke) trial. Acute myocardial injury was defined as at least 1 cTnI value above the upper reference limit with a rise/fall of >20%. Logistic regression tested for associations (1) between acute myocardial injury (presence versus absence) and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 4-6) and mortality at 15 and 90 days; (2) among 3 groups (rising versus falling versus no acute myocardial injury) and outcomes. Among the 841 FAST participants, 785 patients were included. Acute myocardial injury was detected in 29% (n=227); 170 had rising cTnI. At 15 and 90 days, respectively, those with acute myocardial injury had higher odds of poor outcome (adjusted odds ratio) ([aOR] 2.3 [95% CI, 1.3-3.9]); and adjusted odds ratio 2.5 [95% CI, 1.6-3.9];, and higher odds of mortality (adjusted odds ratio 2.4 [95% CI, 1.4-4.3]; and adjusted odds ratio 2.2 [CI, 1.3-3.6]) than patients without. There was no interaction between FAST group assignment and myocardial injury, and associations between myocardial injury and outcomes were consistent across group assignments. Rising cTnI was associated with the highest risk of poor outcomes and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this secondary analysis of the FAST trial, acute myocardial injury was common and associated with poor outcomes. The direction of the cTnI change might provide additional risk stratification after intracerebral hemorrhage.

Benefits of Neurosurgical Teleconsults in the Management of Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Transfers and Transportation Cost Reduction

BACKGROUND

Our study explores the efficacy and economic benefits of neurosurgical teleconsultations in managing intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), focusing on reducing unnecessary patient transfers and associated costs.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-savings analysis at our institution of a previously published pilot study involving a cohort of patients with ICH who were potential candidates for airlift to our tertiary care center but instead received neurosurgical consultation via teleconsultation to avoid the transfer. Data on patient demographics, distances, and costs were collected and analyzed to assess the economic impact of teleconsultations.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 14 patients; we noted significant cost savings from avoiding interhospital transfers, ranging from $84,346.52 to $120,495.03 per patient. Teleconsultations facilitated immediate, collaborative decision-making between healthcare providers at community hospitals and a tertiary care center, reducing the need for expensive air transportation and unnecessary hospital transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

Neurosurgical teleconsultations offer a cost-effective alternative to traditional patient transfer methods for ICH management, providing substantial economic benefits while maintaining high physician and patient-family satisfaction levels. This study underscores the potential of our teleneurosurgery program to significantly reduce costs by reducing unnecessary financial burdens on patients' families and healthcare systems.

Impact of Aphasia on Brain Activation to Motor Commands in Patients with Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Brain activation to motor commands is seen in 15% of clinically unresponsive patients with acute brain injury. This state called cognitive motor dissociation (CMD) is detectable by electroencephalogram (EEG) or functional magnetic resonance imaging, predicts long-term recovery, and is recommended by recent guidelines to support prognostication. However, false negative CMD results are a particular concern, and occult aphasia in clinically unresponsive patients may be a major factor. This study aimed to quantify the impact of aphasia on CMD testing.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 61 intensive care unit patients admitted with acute primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who had behavioral evidence of command following or were able to mimic motor commands. All patients underwent an EEG-based motor command paradigm used to detect CMD and comprehensive aphasia assessments. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of brain activation, including aphasia types and associations with recovery of independence (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended score ≥ 4).

RESULTS

Of 61 patients, 50 completed aphasia and the EEG-based motor command paradigm. A total of 72% (n = 36) were diagnosed with aphasia. Patients with impaired comprehension (i.e., receptive or global aphasia) were less likely to show brain activation than those with intact comprehension (odds ratio [OR] 0.23 [95% confidence interval 0.05-0.89], p = 0.04). Brain activation was independently associated with Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended ≥ 4 by 12 months (OR 2.4 [95% confidence interval 1.2-5.0], p = 0.01) accounting for the Functional Outcome in Patients with Primary ICH score (OR1.3 [95% confidence interval 1.0-1.8], p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Brain activation to motor commands is four times less likely for patients with primary ICH with impaired comprehension. False negative results due to occult receptive aphasia need to be considered when interpreting CMD testing. Early detection of brain activation may help predict long-term recovery in conscious patients with ICH.

Sex Differences in Perihematomal Edema Volume and Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Although larger hematoma volume is associated with worse outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the association between perihematomal edema (PHE) volume and outcome remains uncertain, as does the impact of sex on PHE and outcome. Here we aimed to determine whether larger PHE volume is associated with worse outcome and whether PHE volume trajectories differ by sex.

METHODS

We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Factor VIIa for Acute Hemorrhagic Stroke Treatment (FAST) trial, which randomized patients with ICH to receive recombinant activated factor VIIa or placebo. Computerized planimetry calculated PHE and ICH volumes on serial computed tomography (CT) scans (at baseline [within 3 h of onset], at 24 h, and at 72 h). Generalized estimating equations examined interactions between sex, CT time points, and FAST treatment arm on PHE and ICH volumes. Mixed and multivariable logistic models examined associations between sex, PHE, and outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 781 patients with supratentorial ICH (mean age 65 years) were included. Compared to women (n = 296), men (n = 485) had similar median ICH (14.9 vs. 13.6 mL, p = 0.053) and PHE volumes (11.1 vs. 10.5 mL, p = 0.56) at baseline but larger ICH and PHE volumes at 24 h (19.0 vs. 14.0 mL, p < 0.001; 22.2 vs. 15.7 mL, p < 0.001) and 72 h (16.0 vs. 11.8 mL, p < 0.001; 28.7 vs. 19.9 mL, p < 0.001). Men had higher absolute early PHE expansion (p < 0.001) and more hematoma expansion (growth ≥ 33% or 6 mL at 24 h, 33% vs. 22%, p < 0.001). An interaction between sex and CT time points on PHE volume (p < 0.001), but not on ICH volume, confirmed a steeper PHE trajectory in men. PHE expansion (per 5 mL, odds radio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.28), but not sex, was associated with poor outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Early PHE expansion and trajectory in men were significantly higher. PHE expansion was associated with poor outcomes independent of sex. Mechanisms leading to sex differences in PHE trajectories merit further investigation.

Intracerebral haemorrhage in multiple sclerosis: assessing the impact of disease-modifying medications

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disorder that significantly impacts the central nervous system, leading to a range of complications. While intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) is a rare but highly morbid complication, more common CNS complications include progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) and other CNS infections. This severe form of stroke, known for its high morbidity and mortality rates, presents a critical challenge in the management of MS. The use of disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) in treating MS introduces a nuanced aspect to patient care, with certain medications like Dimethyl Fumarate and Fingolimod showing potential in reducing the risk of ICH, while others such as Alemtuzumab and Mitoxantrone are associated with an increased risk. Understanding the intricate relationship between these DMDs, the pathophysiological mechanisms of ICH, and the individualised aspects of each patient's condition is paramount. Factors such as genetic predispositions, existing comorbidities, and lifestyle choices play a crucial role in tailoring treatment approaches, emphasising the importance of a personalised, vigilant therapeutic strategy. The necessity for ongoing and detailed research cannot be overstated. It is crucial to explore the long-term effects of DMDs on ICH occurrence and prognosis in MS patients, aiming to refine clinical practices and promote patient-centric, informed therapeutic decisions. This approach ensures that the management of MS is not only comprehensive but also adaptable to the evolving understanding of the disease and its treatments.

Deep learning survival model predicts outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage from initial CT scan

BACKGROUND

Predicting functional impairment after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) provides valuable information for planning of patient care and rehabilitation strategies. Current prognostic tools are limited in making long term predictions and require multiple expert-defined inputs and interpretation that make their clinical implementation challenging. This study aimed to predict long term functional impairment of ICH patients from admission non-contrast CT scans, leveraging deep learning models in a survival analysis framework.

METHODS

We used the admission non-contrast CT scans from 882 patients from the Massachusetts General Hospital ICH Study for training, hyperparameter optimization, and model selection, and 146 patients from the Yale New Haven ICH Study for external validation of a deep learning model predicting functional outcome. Disability (modified Rankin scale [mRS] > 2), severe disability (mRS > 4), and dependent living status were assessed via telephone interviews after 6, 12, and 24 months. The prediction methods were evaluated by the c-index and compared with ICH score and FUNC score.

RESULTS

Using non-contrast CT, our deep learning model achieved higher prediction accuracy of post-ICH dependent living, disability, and severe disability by 6, 12, and 24 months (c-index 0.742 [95% CI -0.700 to 0.778], 0.712 [95% CI -0.674 to 0.752], 0.779 [95% CI -0.733 to 0.832] respectively) compared with the ICH score (c-index 0.673 [95% CI -0.662 to 0.688], 0.647 [95% CI -0.637 to 0.661] and 0.697 [95% CI -0.675 to 0.717]) and FUNC score (c-index 0.701 [95% CI- 0.698 to 0.723], 0.668 [95% CI -0.657 to 0.680] and 0.727 [95% CI -0.708 to 0.753]). In the external independent Yale-ICH cohort, similar performance metrics were obtained for disability and severe disability (c-index 0.725 [95% CI -0.673 to 0.781] and 0.747 [95% CI -0.676 to 0.807], respectively). Similar AUC of predicting each outcome at 6 months, 1 and 2 years after ICH was achieved compared with ICH score and FUNC score.

CONCLUSION

We developed a generalizable deep learning model to predict onset of dependent living and disability after ICH, which could help to guide treatment decisions, advise relatives in the acute setting, optimize rehabilitation strategies, and anticipate long-term care needs.

Functional outcome improvement from 3 to 12 months after intracerebral hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Most intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) trials assessed outcome at 3 months but the recovery trajectory of ICH survivors may continue up to 1 year after the index event. We aimed to describe the predictors of functional outcome improvement from 3 to 12 months after ICH.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients admitted to six European Stroke Centers for supratentorial ICH. Functional outcome was measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 and 12 months. Predictors of functional outcome improvement were explored with binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

We included 703 patients, of whom 245 (34.9%) died within 3 months. Among survivors, 131 (28.6%) had an mRS improvement, 78 (17.0%) had a worse mRS and 249 (54.4%) had a stable functional status at 12 months. Older age and the presence of baseline disability (defined as pre-stroke mRS > 1), were associated with lower odds of functional outcome improvement (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.98 per year increase, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.96-1.00, p = 0.017 and OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25-0.81, p = 0.008 respectively). Conversely, deep ICH location increased the probability of long term mRS improvement (OR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.07-2.61, p = 0.023). Patients with mild-moderate disability at 3 months (mRS 2-3) had the highest odds of improvement at 12 months (OR 8.76, 95% CI 3.68-20.86, p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Long term recovery is common after ICH and associated with age, baseline functional status, mRS at 3 months and hematoma location. Our findings might inform future trials and improve long-term prognostication in clinical practice.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication.

METHODS

A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format.

RESULTS

Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

Doctors and nurses subjective predictions of 6-month outcome compared to actual 6-month outcome for adult patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) in neurocritical care: An observational study

Background

Acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage is a devastating form of stroke. Prognostication after ICH may be influenced by clinicians' subjective opinions.

Purpose

To evaluate subjective predictions of 6-month outcome by clinicians' for ICH patients in a neurocritical care using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and compare these to actual 6-month outcome.

Method

We included clinicians' predictions of 6-month outcome in the first 48 h for 52 adults with ICH and compared to actual 6-month outcome using descriptive statistics and multilevel binomial logistic regression.

Results

35/52 patients (66%) had a poor 6-month outcome (mRS 4-6); 19/52 (36%) had died. 324 predictions were included. For good (mRS 0-3) versus poor (mRS 4-6), outcome, accuracy of predictions was 68% and exact agreement 29%. mRS 6 and mRS 4 received the most correct predictions. Comparing job roles, predictions of death were underestimated, by doctors (12%) and nurses (13%) compared with actual mortality (36%). Predictions of vital status showed no significant difference between doctors and nurses: OR = 1.24 {CI; 0.50-3.05}; (p = 0.64) or good versus poor outcome: OR = 1.65 {CI; 0.98-2.79}; (p = 0.06). When predicted and actual 6-month outcome were compared, job role did not significantly relate to correct predictions of good versus poor outcome: OR = 1.13 {CI;0.67-1.90}; (p = 0.65) or for vital status: OR = 1.11 {CI; 0.47-2.61}; p = 0.81).

Conclusions

Early prognostication is challenging. Doctors and nurses were most likely to correctly predict poor outcome but tended to err on the side of optimism for mortality, suggesting an absence of clinical nihilism in relation to ICH.

Clinical Grading Scales and Neuroprognostication in Acute Brain Injury

Prediction of neurological clinical outcome after acute brain injury is critical because it helps guide discussions with patients and families and informs treatment plans and allocation of resources. Numerous clinical grading scales have been published that aim to support prognostication after acute brain injury. However, the development and validation of clinical scales lack a standardized approach. This in turn makes it difficult for clinicians to rely on prognostic grading scales and to integrate them into clinical practice. In this review, we discuss quality measures of score development and validation and summarize available scales to prognosticate outcomes after acute brain injury. These include scales developed for patients with coma, cardiac arrest, ischemic stroke, nontraumatic intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and traumatic brain injury; for each scale, we discuss available validation studies.

Hydrocephalus is an independent factor affecting morbidity and mortality of ICH patients: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Despite advances in our knowledge of the causes, preventions, and treatments of stroke, it continues to be a leading cause of death and disability. The most common type of stroke-related morbidity and mortality is intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Many prognostication scores include an intraventricular extension (IVH) after ICH because it affects mortality independently. Although it is a direct result of IVH and results in significant damage, hydrocephalus (HC) has never been taken into account when calculating prognostication scores. This study aimed to evaluate the significance of hydrocephalus on the outcomes of ICH patients by meta-analysis.

Methods

Studies that compared the rates of mortality and/or morbidity in patients with ICH, ICH with IVH (ICH ​+ ​IVH), and ICH with IVH and HC (ICH ​+ ​IVH ​+ ​HC) were identified. A meta-analysis was performed by using Mantel-Haezel Risk Ratio at 95% significance.

Results

This meta-analysis included thirteen studies. The findings indicate that ICH ​+ ​IVH ​+ ​HC has higher long-term (90-day) and short-term (30-day) mortality risks than ICH (4.26 and 2.30 higher risks, respectively) and ICH ​+ ​IVH (1.96 and 1.54 higher risks). Patients with ICH ​+ ​IVH ​+ ​HC have lower rates of short-term (3 months) and long-term (6 months) good functional outcomes than those with ICH (0.66 and 0.38 times) or ICH ​+ ​IVH (0.76 and 0.54 times). Confounding variables included vascular comorbidities, haemorrhage volume, midline shift, and an initial GCS score below 8.

Conclusion

Hydrocephalus causes a poorer prognosis in ICH patients. Thus, it is reasonable to suggest the inclusion of hydrocephalus in ICH prognostication scoring systems.

Outcomes after inter-hospital transfer of intensive care patients with haemorrhagic stroke: a 5-year retrospective review

BACKGROUND

Inter-hospital transfer (IHT) of intensive care patients is a limited resource. We assessed the outcomes of patients with haemorrhagic stroke requiring IHT and intensive care and aimed to identify early prognostic factors of poor neurological outcome.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of patients admitted to a single tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) with haemorrhagic stroke after IHT between January 2014 and December 2018. Primary outcome was poor neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≥4 at time of discharge from hospital or rehabilitation unit). Secondary outcomes were mortality rate, rate of intervention, rate of organ donation surgery (ODS) and potentially avoidable transfer (PAT). PAT was defined as transfer where the patient did not receive an intervention and had a poor neurological outcome.

RESULTS

Ninety patients were included in this study, 48 with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and 42 with subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Fifty-one (56.7%) patients had a poor neurological outcome, including 30 (33%) who died. Factors significantly associated with poor neurological outcome included age > 80 years, lower presenting Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) and bilaterally fixed and dilated pupils. Stepwise logistic regression demonstrated history of hypertension as significantly associated with poor neurological outcome in patients with ICH (P = 0.021). Seven (7.8%) patients had ODS. Sixty-four (71.1%) patients received intervention and 20 (22.2%) transfers were potentially avoidable.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients in this cohort are at high risk of poor neurological outcome. Prognostic factors identified in this study may help referring, retrieval and receiving clinicians to discuss futility prior to pursuing IHT.

Heart Rate Variability for Outcome Prediction in Intracerebral and Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review

This systematic review presents clinical evidence on the association of heart rate variability with outcome prediction in intracerebral and subarachnoid hemorrhages. The literature search led to the retrieval of 19 significant studies. Outcome prediction included functional outcome, cardiovascular complications, secondary brain injury, and mortality. Various aspects of heart rate recording and analysis, based on linear time and frequency domains and a non-linear entropy approach, are reviewed. Heart rate variability was consistently associated with poor functional outcome and mortality, while controversial results were found regarding the association between heart rate variability and secondary brain injury and cardiovascular complications.

Prediction of poor outcome in stroke patients using radiomics analysis of intraparenchymal and intraventricular hemorrhage and clinical factors

PURPOSE

To build three prognostic models using radiomics analysis of the hemorrhagic lesions, clinical variables, and their combination, to predict the outcome of stroke patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighty-three sICH patients were included. Among them, 40 patients (48.2%) had poor prognosis with modified Rankin scale (mRS) of 5 and 6 at discharge, and the prognostic model was built to differentiate mRS ≤ 4 vs. 5 + 6. The region of interest (ROI) of intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH) and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) were separately segmented. Features were extracted using PyRadiomics, and the support vector machine was applied to select features and build radiomics models based on IPH and IPH + IVH. The clinical models were built using multivariate logistic regression, and then the radiomics scores were combined with clinical variables to build the combined model.

RESULTS

When using IPH, the AUC for radiomics, clinical, and combined model was 0.78, 0.82, and 0.87, respectively. When using IPH + IVH, the AUC was increased to 0.80, 0.84, and 0.90, respectively. The combined model had a significantly improved AUC compared to the radiomics by DeLong test. A clinical prognostic model based on the ICH score of 0-1 only achieved AUC of 0.71.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined model using the radiomics score derived from IPH + IVH and the clinical factors could achieve a high accuracy in prediction of sICH patients with poor outcome, which may be used to assist in making the decision about the optimal care.

Strokes and Predictors of Outcomes

Stroke is a leading cause of long-term disability and fifth leading cause of death. Acute ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage, the 3 subtypes of strokes, have varying treatment modalities. Common themes in management advocate for early interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality but not all perception is supported through randomized controlled trials. Each stroke subtype has varying premorbid-related and ictus-related outcome predictive models that have differing sensitivities and specificities.

Copeptin Implementation on Stroke Prognosis

Predicting functional outcome following stroke is considered to be of key importance in an attempt to optimize overall stroke care. Although clinical prognostic tools have been widely implemented, optimal blood biomarkers might be able to yield additional information regarding each stroke survivor's propensity for recovery. Copeptin seems to have interesting prognostic potential poststroke. The present review aims to explore the prognostic significance of copeptin in stroke patients. Literature research of two databases (MEDLINE and Scopus) was conducted to trace all relevant studies published between 16 February 2012 and 16 February 2022 that focused on the utility of copeptin as a prognostic marker in acute stroke setting. 25 studies have been identified and included in the present review. The predictive ability of copeptin regarding both functional outcome and mortality appears to be in the range of established clinical variables, thus highlighting the added value of copeptin evaluation in stroke management. Apart from acute ischemic stroke, the discriminatory accuracy of the biomarker was also demonstrated among patients with transient ischemic attack, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Overall, copeptin represents a powerful prognostic tool, the clinical implementation of which is expected to significantly facilitate the individualized management of stroke patients.

Added value of non-contrast CT and CT perfusion markers for prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage expansion and outcome

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that the combined analysis of non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CT perfusion (CTP) imaging markers improves prediction of hematoma expansion (HE) and outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

Retrospective, single-center analysis of patients with primary ICH undergoing NCCT and CTP within 6 h from onset. NCCT images were assessed for the presence of intrahematomal hypodensity and shape irregularity. Perihematomal cerebral blood volume and spot sign were assessed on CTP. The main outcomes of the analysis were HE (growth > 6 mL and/or > 33%) and poor functional prognosis (90 days modified Rankin Scale 3-6). Predictors of HE and outcome were explored with logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 150 subjects were included (median age 68, 47.1% males) of whom 54 (36%) had HE and 52 (34.7%) had poor outcome. The number of imaging markers on baseline imaging was independently associated with HE (odds ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.17, p < 0.001) and outcome (odds ratio 1.64, 95% CI 1.06-2.56, p = 0.027). Patients with the simultaneous presence of all the four markers had the highest risk of HE and unfavorable prognosis (mean predicted probability of 91% and 79% respectively). The combined-markers analysis outperformed the sensitivity of the single markers analyzed separately. In particular, the presence of at least one marker identified patients with HE and poor outcome with 91% and 87% sensitivity respectively.

CONCLUSION

NCCT and CTP markers provide additional yield in the prediction of HE and ICH outcome.

KEY POINTS

• Perihematomal hypoperfusion is associated with hematoma expansion and poor outcome in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. • Non-contrast CT and CT perfusion markers improve prediction of hematoma expansion and unfavorable prognosis. • A multimodal CT protocol including CT perfusion will help the identification of patients at high risk of clinical deterioration and poor outcome.

Surgery for spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:

To assess the efficacy and safety of surgery plus standard medical management, compared to standard medical management alone, in people with spontaneous supratentorial ICH, and to assess whether the effect of surgery differs according to the surgical technique.

Computed tomography in acute intracerebral hemorrhage: neuroimaging predictors of hematoma expansion and outcome

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) accounts for 10–20% of all strokes worldwide and is associated with serious outcomes, including a 30-day mortality rate of up to 40%. Neuroimaging is pivotal in diagnosing ICH as early detection and determination of underlying cause, and risk for expansion/rebleeding is essential in providing the correct treatment. Non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) is the most used modality for detection of ICH, identification of prognostic markers and measurements of hematoma volume, all of which are of major importance to predict outcome. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality and functional outcome for ICH patients are baseline hematoma volume and hematoma expansion. Even so, exact hematoma measurement is rare in clinical routine practice, primarily due to a lack of tools available for fast, effective, and reliable volumetric tools. In this educational review, we discuss neuroimaging findings for ICH from NCCT images, and their prognostic value, as well as the use of semi-automatic and fully automated hematoma volumetric methods and assessment of hematoma expansion in prognostic studies.

Plasma PRPC Levels Correlate With Severity and Prognosis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Background

Cellular prion protein (PRPC) exerts brain-protective effects. We determined the relationship between plasma PRPC levels and disease severity plus clinical outcome after acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods

A total of 138 ICH patients and 138 healthy controls were included in this prospective, observational study. Hematoma volume and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score were used to assess disease severity. Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) scores of 1–3 and 4–5 at 90 days after stroke were defined as a poor outcome and good outcome, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, we discerned the relation of plasma PRPC levels to disease severity and poor outcome. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was built to evaluate the prognostic predictive capability.

Results

Plasma PRPC levels in ICH patients were significantly higher than those in healthy controls (median, 4.20 vs. 2.02 ng/ml; P &lt; 0.001), and were independently correlated with GCS score (r = −0.645, P &lt; 0.001) and hematoma volume (r = 0.627, P &lt; 0.001). Plasma PRPC levels were highly correlated with GOS score (r = −0.762, P &lt; 0.001), and were substantially higher in patients with poor outcomes than in those with the good outcomes. Using maximum Youden index, plasma PRPC levels &gt;3.893 ng/ml distinguished the risk of poor outcome at 90 days, with a sensitivity of 86.4% and a specificity of 65.8% (area under the curve, 0.809; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.737–0.881, P &lt; 0.001). Plasma PRPC levels &gt;3.893 ng/ml were independently associated with a poor 90-day outcome with an odds ratio of 12.278 (95% CI, 5.101–29.554).

Conclusion

Elevated plasma PRPC levels are significantly associated with disease severity and poor 90-day outcome in ICH patients, indicating that plasma PRPC may be used as a potential prognostic biomarker after ICH.

Mesenchymal Stem Cell Application and Its Therapeutic Mechanisms in Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), a common lethal subtype of stroke accounting for nearly 10–15% of the total stroke disease and affecting two million people worldwide, has a high mortality and disability rate and, thus, a major socioeconomic burden. However, there is no effective treatment available currently. The role of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in regenerative medicine is well known owing to the simplicity of acquisition from various sources, low immunogenicity, adaptation to the autogenic and allogeneic systems, immunomodulation, self-recovery by secreting extracellular vesicles (EVs), regenerative repair, and antioxidative stress. MSC therapy provides an increasingly attractive therapeutic approach for ICH. Recently, the functions of MSCs such as neuroprotection, anti-inflammation, and improvement in synaptic plasticity have been widely researched in human and rodent models of ICH. MSC transplantation has been proven to improve ICH-induced injury, including the damage of nerve cells and oligodendrocytes, the activation of microglia and astrocytes, and the destruction of blood vessels. The improvement and recovery of neurological functions in rodent ICH models were demonstrated via the mechanisms such as neurogenesis, angiogenesis, anti-inflammation, anti-apoptosis, and synaptic plasticity. Here, we discuss the pathological mechanisms following ICH and the therapeutic mechanisms of MSC-based therapy to unravel new cues for future therapeutic strategies. Furthermore, some potential strategies for enhancing the therapeutic function of MSC transplantation have also been suggested.

Predictive Nomogram for Unfavorable Outcome of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The goal of this retrospective study was to evaluate the effect of surgical timing on patient outcomes after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We also identified risk factors associated with poor prognosis.

METHODS

We reviewed all patients who underwent surgery for ICH between January 2014 and January 2021. The outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 6 months after the surgery. Patients with mRS 0-2 were considered having favorable outcomes, and those with mRS 3-5 were considered having unfavorable outcomes. The relationships of surgical timing with the risk of unfavorable outcomes were identified using the interaction and stratified analyses, and generalized additive and logistic regression models. A nomogram was established and evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, plotted decision curve, and calibration curve.

RESULTS

We identified 53 patients with favorable outcomes and 144 with unfavorable outcomes. The number of cases who underwent surgery at >12 hours and <36 hours in the favorable outcome group was more than that in the unfavorable outcome group (P < 0.001). When the time to operating room (TOR) was less than 21 hours, a shorter TOR was associated with unfavorable outcomes, using the smoothing spline analysis (odds ratio = 0.8, P < 0.001). Finally, we developed a nomogram using systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR for predicting the unfavorable outcome. The area under the curve, accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of nomogram were 0.90, 0.87, 0.72, and 0.93, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Surgical timing between 12 and 26 hours after ICH was associated with favorable outcomes. The nomogram including systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR was reliable for predicting the ICH outcome.

Machine learning model prediction of 6-month functional outcome in elderly patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has an increasing incidence and a worse outcome in elderly patients. The ability to predict the functional outcome in these patients can be helpful in supporting treatment decisions and establishing prognostic expectations. We evaluated the performance of a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 6-month functional status in elderly patients with ICH leveraging the predictive value of the clinical characteristics at hospital admission. Data were extracted by a retrospective multicentric database of patients ≥ 70 years of age consecutively admitted for the management of spontaneous ICH between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2019. Relevant demographic, clinical, and radiological variables were selected by a feature selection algorithm (Boruta) and used to build a ML model. Outcome was determined according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at 6 months from ICH: dead (GOS 1), poor outcome (GOS 2–3: vegetative status/severe disability), and good outcome (GOS 4–5: moderate disability/good recovery). Ten features were selected by Boruta with the following relative importance order in the ML model: Glasgow Coma Scale, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ICH score, ICH volume, pupillary status, brainstem location, age, anticoagulant/antiplatelet agents, intraventricular hemorrhage, and cerebellar location. Random forest prediction model, evaluated on the hold-out test set, achieved an AUC of 0.96 (0.94–0.98), 0.89 (0.86–0.93), and 0.93 (0.90–0.95) for dead, poor, and good outcome classes, respectively, demonstrating high discriminative ability. A random forest classifier was successfully trained and internally validated to stratify elderly patients with spontaneous ICH into prognostic subclasses. The predictive value is enhanced by the ability of ML model to identify synergy among variables.

Early Deterioration, Hematoma Expansion, and Outcomes in Deep Versus Lobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The FAST Trial

BACKGROUND

In patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), it is unclear whether early neurological deterioration, hematoma expansion (HE), and outcome vary by supratentorial ICH location (deep versus lobar). Herein, we assessed these relationships in a clinical trial cohort that underwent brain imaging early after symptom onset. We hypothesized that HE would occur more frequently, and outcome would be worse in patients with deep ICH.

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of the FAST (Factor-VII-for-Acute-Hemorrhagic-Stroke-Treatment) trial including all patients with supratentorial hemorrhage. Enrolled patients underwent brain imaging within 3 hours of symptom onset and 24 hours after randomization. Multivariable regression was used to test the association between ICH location and 3 outcomes: HE (increase of ≥33% or 6mL), early neurological deterioration (decrease in Glasgow Coma Scale score ≥2 points or increase in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale ≥4 points within 24 hours of admission), and 90-day outcome (modified Rankin Scale).

RESULTS

Of 841 FAST trial patients, we included 728 (mean age 64 years, 38% women) with supratentorial hemorrhages (deep n=623, lobar n=105). HE (44 versus 27%, P=0.001) and early neurological deterioration (31 versus 17%, P=0.001) were more common in lobar hemorrhages. Deep hemorrhages were smaller than lobar hemorrhages at baseline (12 versus 35mL, P<0.001) and 24 hours (14 versus 38mL, P<0.001). Unadjusted 90-day outcome was worse in lobar compared with deep ICH (median modified Rankin Scale score 5 versus 4, P=0.03). However, when adjusting for variables included in the ICH score including ICH volume, deep location was associated with worse and lobar location with better outcome (odds ratio lobar location, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.38-0.89]; P=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In this secondary analysis of randomized trial patients, lobar ICH location was associated with larger ICH volume, more HE and early neurological deterioration, and worse outcome than deep ICH. After adjustment for prognostic variables, however, deep ICH was associated with worse outcome, likely due to their proximity to eloquent brain structures.

Delayed perihematomal hypoperfusion is associated with poor outcome in intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to characterize the temporal evolution and prognostic significance of perihematomal perfusion in acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

A single-centre prospective cohort of patients with primary spontaneous ICH receives computed tomography perfusion (CTP) within 6 h from onset (T0) and at 7 days (T7). Cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV) and mean transit time (MTT) were measured in the manually outlined perihematomal low-density area. Poor functional prognosis (modified Rankin Scale 3-6) at 90 days was the outcome of interest, and predictors were explored with multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients were studied, of whom 52 (34.7%) had a mRS 3-6 at 90 days. Perihematomal perfusion decreased from T0 to T7 in all patients, but the magnitude of CBF and CBV reduction was larger in patients with unfavourable outcome (median CBF change -7.8 vs. -6.0 ml/100 g/min, p < .001, and median CBV change -0.5 vs. -0.4 ml/100 g, p = .010, respectively). This finding remained significant after adjustment for confounders (odds ratio [OR] for 1 ml/100 g/min CBF reduction: 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.15-1.55), p < .001; OR for 0.1 ml/100 g CBV reduction: 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.35, p = .004). The presence of CBF < 20 ml/100 g/min at T7 was then demonstrated as an independent predictor of poor functional outcome (adjusted OR: 2.45, 95% CI 1.08-5-54, p = .032).

CONCLUSION

Perihaemorrhagic hypoperfusion becomes more severe in the days following acute ICH and is independently associated with poorer outcome. Understanding the underlying biological mechanisms responsible for delayed decrease in perihematomal perfusion is a necessary step towards outcome improvement in patients with ICH.