The potential of precision psychiatry: what is in reach?

Development and initial evaluation of a clinical prediction model for risk of treatment resistance in first-episode psychosis: Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment (SPIRIT)

BACKGROUND

A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication.

AIMS

To develop and evaluate a model that could predict the risk of TRS in routine clinical practice.

METHOD

We used data from two UK-based FEP cohorts (GAP and AESOP-10) to develop and internally validate a prognostic model that supports identification of patients at high-risk of TRS soon after FEP diagnosis. Using sociodemographic and clinical predictors, a model for predicting risk of TRS was developed based on penalised logistic regression, with missing data handled using multiple imputation. Internal validation was undertaken via bootstrapping, obtaining optimism-adjusted estimates of the model's performance. Interviews and focus groups with clinicians were conducted to establish clinically relevant risk thresholds and understand the acceptability and perceived utility of the model.

RESULTS

We included seven factors in the prediction model that are predominantly assessed in clinical practice in patients with FEP. The model predicted treatment resistance among the 1081 patients with reasonable accuracy; the model's C-statistic was 0.727 (95% CI 0.723-0.732) prior to shrinkage and 0.687 after adjustment for optimism. Calibration was good (expected/observed ratio: 0.999; calibration-in-the-large: 0.000584) after adjustment for optimism.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated a prediction model with reasonably good predictive metrics. Clinicians, patients and carers were involved in the development process. External validation of the tool is needed followed by co-design methodology to support implementation in early intervention services.

Classifying autism in a clinical population based on motion synchrony: a proof-of-concept study using real-life diagnostic interviews

Predictive modeling strategies are increasingly studied as a means to overcome clinical bottlenecks in the diagnostic classification of autism spectrum disorder. However, while some findings are promising in the light of diagnostic marker research, many of these approaches lack the scalability for adequate and effective translation to everyday clinical practice. In this study, our aim was to explore the use of objective computer vision video analysis of real-world autism diagnostic interviews in a clinical sample of children and young individuals in the transition to adulthood to predict diagnosis. Specifically, we trained a support vector machine learning model on interpersonal synchrony data recorded in Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS-2) interviews of patient-clinician dyads. Our model was able to classify dyads involving an autistic patient (n = 56) with a balanced accuracy of 63.4% against dyads including a patient with other psychiatric diagnoses (n = 38). Further analyses revealed no significant associations between our classification metrics with clinical ratings. We argue that, given the above-chance performance of our classifier in a highly heterogeneous sample both in age and diagnosis, with few adjustments this highly scalable approach presents a viable route for future diagnostic marker research in autism.

The social determinants of mental health and disorder: evidence, prevention and recommendations

People exposed to more unfavourable social circumstances are more vulnerable to poor mental health over their life course, in ways that are often determined by structural factors which generate and perpetuate intergenerational cycles of disadvantage and poor health. Addressing these challenges is an imperative matter of social justice. In this paper we provide a roadmap to address the social determinants that cause mental ill health. Relying as far as possible on high-quality evidence, we first map out the literature that supports a causal link between social determinants and later mental health outcomes. Given the breadth of this topic, we focus on the most pervasive social determinants across the life course, and those that are common across major mental disorders. We draw primarily on the available evidence from the Global North, acknowledging that other global contexts will face both similar and unique sets of social determinants that will require equitable attention. Much of our evidence focuses on mental health in groups who are marginalized, and thus often exposed to a multitude of intersecting social risk factors. These groups include refugees, asylum seekers and displaced persons, as well as ethnoracial minoritized groups; lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ+) groups; and those living in poverty. We then introduce a preventive framework for conceptualizing the link between social determinants and mental health and disorder, which can guide much needed primary prevention strategies capable of reducing inequalities and improving population mental health. Following this, we provide a review of the evidence concerning candidate preventive strategies to intervene on social determinants of mental health. These interventions fall broadly within the scope of universal, selected and indicated primary prevention strategies, but we also briefly review important secondary and tertiary strategies to promote recovery in those with existing mental disorders. Finally, we provide seven key recommendations, framed around social justice, which constitute a roadmap for action in research, policy and public health. Adoption of these recommendations would provide an opportunity to advance efforts to intervene on modifiable social determinants that affect population mental health.

Predicting long-term outcome in anorexia nervosa: a machine learning analysis of brain structure at different stages of weight recovery

BACKGROUND

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is characterized by sizable, widespread gray matter (GM) reductions in the acutely underweight state. However, evidence for persistent alterations after weight-restoration has been surprisingly scarce despite high relapse rates, frequent transitions to other psychiatric disorders, and generally unfavorable outcome. While most studies investigated brain regions separately (univariate analysis), psychiatric disorders can be conceptualized as brain network disorders characterized by multivariate alterations with only subtle local effects. We tested for persistent multivariate structural brain alterations in weight-restored individuals with a history of AN, investigated their putative biological substrate and relation with 1-year treatment outcome.

METHODS

We trained machine learning models on regional GM measures to classify healthy controls (HC) (N = 289) from individuals at three stages of AN: underweight patients starting intensive treatment (N = 165, used as baseline), patients after partial weight-restoration (N = 115), and former patients after stable and full weight-restoration (N = 89). Alterations after weight-restoration were related to treatment outcome and characterized both anatomically and functionally.

RESULTS

Patients could be classified from HC when underweight (ROC-AUC = 0.90) but also after partial weight-restoration (ROC-AUC = 0.64). Alterations after partial weight-restoration were more pronounced in patients with worse outcome and were not detected in long-term weight-recovered individuals, i.e. those with favorable outcome. These alterations were more pronounced in regions with greater functional connectivity, not merely explained by body mass index, and even increases in cortical thickness were observed (insula, lateral orbitofrontal, temporal pole).

CONCLUSIONS

Analyzing persistent multivariate brain structural alterations after weight-restoration might help to develop personalized interventions after discharge from inpatient treatment.

Challenges and Ethical Considerations to Successfully Implement Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Medicine and Neuroscience: a Narrative Review

This narrative review discusses how the safe and effective use of clinical artificial intelligence (AI) prediction tools requires recognition of the importance of human intelligence. Human intelligence, creativity, situational awareness, and professional knowledge, are required for successful implementation. The implementation of clinical AI prediction tools may change the workflow in medical practice resulting in new challenges and safety implications. Human understanding of how a clinical AI prediction tool performs in routine and exceptional situations is fundamental to successful implementation. Physicians must be involved in all aspects of the selection, implementation, and ongoing product monitoring of clinical AI prediction tools.

The role of pharmacogenomics in precision psychiatry

The field of psychiatry is facing an important paradigm shift in the provision of clinical care and mental health service organization toward personalization and integration of multimodal data science. This approach, termed precision psychiatry, aims at identifying subgroups of patients more prone to the development of a certain phenotype, such as symptoms or severe mental disorders (risk detection), and/or to guide treatment selection. Pharmacogenomics and computational psychiatry are two fundamental tools of precision psychiatry, which have seen increasing levels of integration in clinical settings. Here we present a brief overview of these two applications of precision psychiatry in clinical settings.

Deep phenotyping towards precision psychiatry of first-episode depression - the Brain Drugs-Depression cohort

BACKGROUND

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is a heterogenous brain disorder, with potentially multiple psychosocial and biological disease mechanisms. This is also a plausible explanation for why patients do not respond equally well to treatment with first- or second-line antidepressants, i.e., one-third to one-half of patients do not remit in response to first- or second-line treatment. To map MDD heterogeneity and markers of treatment response to enable a precision medicine approach, we will acquire several possible predictive markers across several domains, e.g., psychosocial, biochemical, and neuroimaging.

METHODS

All patients are examined before receiving a standardised treatment package for adults aged 18-65 with first-episode depression in six public outpatient clinics in the Capital Region of Denmark. From this population, we will recruit a cohort of 800 patients for whom we will acquire clinical, cognitive, psychometric, and biological data. A subgroup (subcohort I, n = 600) will additionally provide neuroimaging data, i.e., Magnetic Resonance Imaging, and Electroencephalogram, and a subgroup of patients from subcohort I unmedicated at inclusion (subcohort II, n = 60) will also undergo a brain Positron Emission Tomography with the [¹¹C]-UCB-J tracer binding to the presynaptic glycoprotein-SV2A. Subcohort allocation is based on eligibility and willingness to participate. The treatment package typically lasts six months. Depression severity is assessed with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (QIDS) at baseline, and 6, 12 and 18 months after treatment initiation. The primary outcome is remission (QIDS ≤ 5) and clinical improvement (≥ 50% reduction in QIDS) after 6 months. Secondary endpoints include remission at 12 and 18 months and %-change in QIDS, 10-item Symptom Checklist, 5-item WHO Well-Being Index, and modified Disability Scale from baseline through follow-up. We also assess psychotherapy and medication side-effects. We will use machine learning to determine a combination of characteristics that best predict treatment outcomes and statistical models to investigate the association between individual measures and clinical outcomes. We will assess associations between patient characteristics, treatment choices, and clinical outcomes using path analysis, enabling us to estimate the effect of treatment choices and timing on the clinical outcome.

DISCUSSION

The BrainDrugs-Depression study is a real-world deep-phenotyping clinical cohort study of first-episode MDD patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at clinicaltrials.gov November 15th, 2022 (NCT05616559).

Restoring the missing person to personalized medicine and precision psychiatry

Precision psychiatry has emerged as part of the shift to personalized medicine and builds on frameworks such as the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health Research Domain Criteria (RDoC), multilevel biological "omics" data and, most recently, computational psychiatry. The shift is prompted by the realization that a one-size-fits all approach is inadequate to guide clinical care because people differ in ways that are not captured by broad diagnostic categories. One of the first steps in developing this personalized approach to treatment was the use of genetic markers to guide pharmacotherapeutics based on predictions of pharmacological response or non-response, and the potential risk of adverse drug reactions. Advances in technology have made a greater degree of specificity or precision potentially more attainable. To date, however, the search for precision has largely focused on biological parameters. Psychiatric disorders involve multi-level dynamics that require measures of phenomenological, psychological, behavioral, social structural, and cultural dimensions. This points to the need to develop more fine-grained analyses of experience, self-construal, illness narratives, interpersonal interactional dynamics, and social contexts and determinants of health. In this paper, we review the limitations of precision psychiatry arguing that it cannot reach its goal if it does not include core elements of the processes that give rise to psychopathological states, which include the agency and experience of the person. Drawing from contemporary systems biology, social epidemiology, developmental psychology, and cognitive science, we propose a cultural-ecosocial approach to integrating precision psychiatry with person-centered care.

Novel and emerging treatments for major depression

Depression is common, costly, debilitating, and associated with increased risk of suicide. It is one of the leading global public health problems. Although existing available pharmacological treatments can be effective, their onset of action can take up to 6 weeks, side-effects are common, and recovery can require treatment with multiple different agents. Although psychosocial interventions might also be recommended, more effective treatments than those currently available are needed for people with moderate or severe depression. In the past 10 years, treatment trials have developed and tested many new targeted interventions. In this Review, we assess novel and emerging biological treatments for major depressive disorder, evaluate their putative brain and body mechanisms, and highlight how close each might be to clinical use.

Rethinking Immunity and Cognition in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

It is well known that schizophrenia is associated with cognitive impairment, reduced cortical grey matter and increased circulating concentrations of inflammatory cytokines. However, the relationship between these findings is not clear. We outline the influential neuroinflammatory hypotheses that raised cytokines provoke a damaging immune response in microglia that results in reduced grey matter and associated cognitive performance. We investigated whether such an interaction might be detectable in the prodromal period as illness emerges from the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Meta-analyses suggest that compared with controls, impaired cognition and reduced grey matter are already present by the prodrome and that greater decrements are present in those who later develop symptoms. In contrast, the few cytokine studies report no abnormalities in CHR-P except that interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were raised versus controls and to a greater extent in the future patients, in one study. We noted that cognitive impairment and less cortical grey matter are more severe in schizophrenia than in affective disorders, but that increased cytokine levels are similarly prevalent across disorders. We found no studies correlating cytokine levels with cognitive impairment in CHR-P but such correlations seem unlikely given the minimal relationship reported in a recent meta-analysis of the many cytokine-cognition studies in established illness. From this and other evidence, we conclude that neuroinflammation is not a core feature of schizophrenia nor a substrate for reduced grey matter volume or cognitive function. We draw attention instead to the emerging evidence that brain-resident immune cells and signalling molecules such as Tregs and IL-6, which are influenced by schizophrenia risk genes, regulate and are necessary for the development and function of neuron-glia interaction. We suggest that cognitive impairment in schizophrenia can be seen as a convergence of genetic and immune-neurodevelopmental dysregulation whereas raised cytokines are a consequence of impaired Tregs control of systemic inflammation.