Risk Stratification for Second Primary Lung Cancer

Second primary malignancy for early-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma by SEER17 registries

OBJECTIVE

Investigating treatment modalities' association with second primary malignancy risk in early-stage head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

METHODS

Data of 5-year survivors of early-stage (stages I-II, seventh TNM staging manual) HNSCC from 2000 to 2020 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Standardized incidence ratio and excess absolute risk were used to assess second primary malignancy (SPM) development externally. Relative risk was estimated to compare SPM risk within groups. Fine-Gray's model estimated cumulative incidence of second primary malignancy.

RESULTS

Overall, 8957 5-year survivors with early-stage HNSCC were enrolled. Patients receiving definitive radiotherapy had poorer survival than surgery patients. Surgery correlated with lower risk of second primary malignancy (RR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.99), especially for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (RR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.39-0.82). Differences in the risk of second primary malignancy among subgroups based on clinical characteristics were not significant. Treatment modalities did not significantly affect risk of second primary malignancy within each subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery led to better survival and lower risk of second primary malignancy compared to definitive radiotherapy in 5-year survivors. Incidence and sites of second primary malignancy varied by primary sites, emphasizing targeted long-term surveillance's importance.

Secondary Analysis of the Rate of Second Primary Lung Cancer From Cancer and Leukemia Group B 140503 (Alliance) Trial of Lobar Versus Sublobar Resection for T1aN0 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned co-primary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical trial updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported.Patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who undergo curative surgical resection are at risk for developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). Cancer and Leukemia Group B 140503 (Alliance) was a multicenter, international, randomized, phase III trial in patients with stage T1aN0 NSCLC (using the TNM staging system seventh edition) and demonstrated the noninferiority for disease-free survival between sublobar resection (SLR) and lobar resection (LR). After surgery, patients underwent computed tomography surveillance as defined by the protocol. The determination of a SPLC was done by the treating physician and recorded in the study database. We performed an analysis of the rate of SPLC (per patient per year) and the 5-year cumulative incidence in the study population and within the SLR and LR arms. Median follow-up was 7 years. The rate per patient per year in the study population, in the SLR arm, and in the LR arm was 3.4% (95% CI, 2.9 to 4.1), 3.8% (95% CI, 2.9 to 4.9), and 3.1% (95% CI, 2.4 to 4.1), respectively. The estimated 5-year cumulative incidence of SPLC in the study population, SLR arm, and LR arm was 15.9% (95% CI, 12.9 to 18.9), 17.2% (95% CI, 12.7 to 21.5), and 14.7% (95% CI, 10.6 to 18.7), respectively.

Enhanced Survival with Lymphadenectomy in Early-Stage Metachronous Second Primary Lung Cancer: A Retrospective Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Lymphadenectomy is a cornerstone in the surgical management of resectable primary lung cancer. However, its prognostic significance in early-stage metachronous second primary lung cancer (MSPLC) remains poorly understood. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of lymphadenectomy in these patients using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the SEER Database for patients surgically treated for stage I MSPLC between 2004 and 2015. Propensity score-matching was employed to create comparable cohorts, and the Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival after lymphadenectomy compared to non-lymphadenectomy. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Among 920 identified patients with MSPLC, 574 (62.4%) underwent lymphadenectomy. Propensity score-matching yielded 255 patients in both the lymphadenectomy and non-lymphadenectomy groups. Over a median follow-up of 38 months, the 5-year overall survival probability after a diagnosis of MSPLC was 58.7% in the lymphadenectomy group and 43.9% in the non-lymphadenectomy group (HR: 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.90; p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

In this population-based study, lymphadenectomy is associated with prolonged overall survival in patients with stage I MSPLC. These findings suggest the potential benefit of incorporating lymphadenectomy into the surgical management of MSPLC, providing valuable guidance for thoracic surgeons in clinical decision-making.

Risk model-based management for second primary lung cancer among lung cancer survivors through a validated risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

Recent therapeutic advances and screening technologies have improved survival among patients with lung cancer, who are now at high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model (called SPLC-RAT) was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT was evaluated in a hospital-based cohort of lung cancer survivors.

METHODS

The authors analyzed data from 8448 ever-smoking patients diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1997-2006 at Mayo Clinic, with each patient followed for SPLC through 2018. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT and further explored the potential of improving SPLC detection through risk model-based surveillance using SPLC-RAT versus existing clinical surveillance guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 8448 IPLC patients, 483 (5.7%) developed SPLC over 26,470 person-years. The application of SPLC-RAT showed high discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.81). When the cohort was stratified by a 10-year risk threshold of ≥5.6% (i.e., 80th percentile from the SPLC-RAT development cohort), the observed SPLC incidence was significantly elevated in the high-risk versus low-risk subgroup (13.1% vs. 1.1%, p < 1 × 10-6 ). The risk-based surveillance through SPLC-RAT (≥5.6% threshold) outperformed the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines with higher sensitivity (86.4% vs. 79.4%) and specificity (38.9% vs. 30.4%) and required 20% fewer computed tomography follow-ups needed to detect one SPLC (162 vs. 202).

CONCLUSION

In a large, hospital-based cohort, the authors validated the predictive performance of SPLC-RAT in identifying high-risk survivors of SPLC and showed its potential to improve SPLC detection through risk-based surveillance.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Lung cancer survivors have a high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, no evidence-based guidelines for SPLC surveillance are available for lung cancer survivors. Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. Using a large, real-world cohort of lung cancer survivors, we showed the high predictive accuracy and risk-stratification ability of the SPLC risk-prediction model. Furthermore, we demonstrated the potential to enhance efficiency in detecting SPLC using risk model-based surveillance strategies compared to the existing consensus-based clinical guidelines, including the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Personal history of cancer as a risk factor for second primary lung cancer: Implications for lung cancer screening

BACKGROUND

Personal history of cancer is an independent risk factor for lung cancer but is omitted from existing lung cancer screening eligibility criteria. In this study, we assess the lung cancer risk among cancer survivors and discuss potential implications for screening.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, secondary analysis of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry and the MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). We estimated the standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for lung cancer by site of first primary cancer using data from SEER. We assessed the lung cancer risk among head and neck cancer survivors from MDACC using cumulative incidence and compared the risk ratios (RR) by individuals' screening eligibility status.

RESULTS

Other than first primary lung cancer (SIR: 5.10, 95% CI: 5.01-5.18), cancer survivors in SEER with personal history of head and neck cancer (SIR: 3.71, 95% CI: 3.63-3.80) had the highest risk of developing second primary lung cancer, followed by bladder (SIR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.81-1.90) and esophageal cancers (SIR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.61-1.96). Head and neck cancer survivors had higher risk to develop lung cancer compared to the National Lung Screening Trial's subjects, (781 vs. 572 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). Head and neck cancer survivors ineligible for lung cancer screening seen at MDACC had significantly higher lung cancer risk than head and neck cancer survivors from SEER (RR: 1.9, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Personal history of cancer, primarily head and neck cancer, is an independent risk factor for lung cancer and may be considered as an eligibility criterion in future lung cancer screening recommendations.

Incidence and risk of remnant gastric cancer after gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a population-based study from the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) constitutes a major global health problem, of which remnant gastric cancer (RGC) occurs less frequently. The rate of RGCs after gastrectomy for GC is increasing recently due to improved survival and screening, however, their incidence and risk have not been reported in the U.S.

POPULATION

The objective of this study was to evaluate the incidence and elevated risk of RGC after GC gastrectomy in this population, and to identify the risk factors.

METHODS

Patients underwent gastrectomy for first primary GC in 2000-2015 and those who developed RGC were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Fine-Gray regression was used to estimate the cumulative incidence and to identify risk factors. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated by Poisson regression to compare the risk with the general population.

RESULTS

Among 21,566 patients included in the cohort, 227 developed RGC. The 20-year cumulative incidence of RGC was 1.88%. Multivariate analysis revealed that older age, invasion depth, male sex, marital status, and lower income are independent risk factors for RGC development. SIR was 7.70 overall and > 4.5 in each stratum.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative incidence and risk for RGCs increased continuously in patients underwent GC gastrectomy. Close and lifelong endoscopy surveillance should be recommended for patients who received GC gastrectomy, especially those with high-risk factors.

Software Application Profile: dynamicLM-a tool for performing dynamic risk prediction using a landmark supermodel for survival data under competing risks

MOTIVATION

Providing a dynamic assessment of prognosis is essential for improved personalized medicine. The landmark model for survival data provides a potentially powerful solution to the dynamic prediction of disease progression. However, a general framework and a flexible implementation of the model that incorporates various outcomes, such as competing events, have been lacking. We present an R package, dynamicLM, a user-friendly tool for the landmark model for the dynamic prediction of survival data under competing risks, which includes various functions for data preparation, model development, prediction and evaluation of predictive performance.

IMPLEMENTATION

dynamicLM as an R package.

GENERAL FEATURES

The package includes options for incorporating time-varying covariates, capturing time-dependent effects of predictors and fitting a cause-specific landmark model for time-to-event data with or without competing risks. Tools for evaluating the prediction performance include time-dependent area under the ROC curve, Brier Score and calibration.

AVAILABILITY

Available on GitHub [https://github.com/thehanlab/dynamicLM].

Characteristics and classification of first primary cancer patients with second primary cancer: a population-based cohort study

Cancer survivors have an increased risk of developing subsequent primary tumors. However, the characteristics of first primary cancers (FPCs) with various types of second primary cancers (SPCs) are poorly understood, which hinders screening strategies. We analyzed data from 1,893,258 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to characterize and classify of FPC patients with subsequent SPCs at the pan-cancer level. In total, 3% of patients had SPC, with varied incidence rates observed depending on the types of FPC. Their onset patterns of SPC and diversity of SPC varied. Based on the diversity of the high-incidence sites of SPC, we classified FPCs into two categories: FPCs that require whole-body screening and those that need screening of particular body parts. Moreover, according to the different timing of high incidence of SPCs, our system classifies FPCs into two subtypes: FPCs that require long-term monitoring for the occurrence of SPCs and those that require screening at specific time points for SPCs. Furthermore, we identified 11 anatomical sites where over half of FPC types are prone to SPC occurrence at these locations. The risk factors for SPC occurrence in different FPC types and prognostic factors were also elucidated. Overall, we characterize and classify of FPC patients with subsequent SPCs at the pan-cancer level, which can guide the development of distinct screening strategies for each FPC type.

A pairwise radiomics algorithm-lesion pair relation estimation model for distinguishing multiple primary lung cancer from intrapulmonary metastasis

Background

Distinguishing multiple primary lung cancer (MPLC) from intrapulmonary metastasis (IPM) is critical for their disparate treatment strategy and prognosis. This study aimed to establish a non-invasive model to make the differentiation pre-operatively.

Methods

We retrospectively studied 168 patients with multiple lung cancers (307 pairs of lesions) including 118 cases for modeling and internal validation, and 50 cases for independent external validation. Radiomic features on computed tomography (CT) were extracted to calculate the absolute deviation of paired lesions. Features were then selected by correlation coefficients and random forest classifier 5-fold cross-validation, based on which the lesion pair relation estimation (PRE) model was developed. A major voting strategy was used to decide diagnosis for cases with multiple pairs of lesions. Cases from another institute were included as the external validation set for the PRE model to compete with two experienced clinicians.

Results

Seven radiomic features were selected for the PRE model construction. With major voting strategy, the mean area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the training versus internal validation versus external validation cohort to distinguish MPLC were 0.983 versus 0.844 versus 0.793, 0.942 versus 0.846 versus 0.760, 0.905 versus 0.728 versus 0.727, and 0.962 versus 0.910 versus 0.769, respectively. AUCs of the two clinicians were 0.619 and 0.580.

Conclusions

The CT radiomic feature-based lesion PRE model is potentially an accurate diagnostic tool for the differentiation of MPLC and IPM, which could help with clinical decision making.

Second Primary Lung Cancer Among Lung Cancer Survivors Who Never Smoked

Importance

Lung cancer among never-smokers accounts for 25% of all lung cancers in the US; recent therapeutic advances have improved survival among patients with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC), who are now at high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). As smoking rates continue to decline in the US, it is critical to examine more closely the epidemiology of lung cancer among patients who never smoked, including their risk for SPLC.

Objective

To estimate and compare the cumulative SPLC incidence among lung cancer survivors who have never smoked vs those who have ever smoked.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based prospective cohort study used data from the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC), which enrolled participants between April 18, 1993, and December 31, 1996, with follow-up through July 1, 2017. Eligible individuals for this study were aged 45 to 75 years and had complete smoking data at baseline. These participants were followed up for IPLC and further SPLC development through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. The data were analyzed from July 1, 2022, to January 31, 2023.

Exposures

Never-smoking vs ever-smoking exposure at MEC enrollment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The study had 2 primary outcomes: (1) 10-year cumulative incidence of IPLC in the entire study cohort and 10-year cumulative incidence of SPLC among patients with IPLC and (2) standardized incidence ratio (SIR) (calculated as the SPLC incidence divided by the IPLC incidence) by smoking history.

Results

Among 211 414 MEC participants, 7161 (3.96%) developed IPLC over 4 038 007 person-years, and 163 (2.28%) developed SPLC over 16 470 person-years. Of the participants with IPLC, the mean (SD) age at cohort enrollment was 63.6 (7.7) years, 4031 (56.3%) were male, and 3131 (43.7%) were female. The 10-year cumulative IPLC incidence was 2.40% (95% CI, 2.31%-2.49%) among ever-smokers, which was 7 times higher than never-smokers (0.34%; 95% CI, 0.30%-0.37%). However, the 10-year cumulative SPLC incidence following IPLC was as high among never-smokers (2.84%; 95% CI, 1.50%-4.18%) as ever-smokers (2.72%; 95% CI, 2.24%-3.20%), which led to a substantially higher SIR for never-smokers (14.50; 95% CI, 8.73-22.65) vs ever-smokers (3.50; 95% CI, 2.95-4.12).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings indicate that SPLC risk among lung cancer survivors who never smoked is as high as among those with IPLC who ever-smoked, highlighting the need to identify risk factors for SPLC among patients who never smoked and to develop a targeted surveillance strategy.

Prognostic factors, treatment decisions, and nomograms for patients with second primary lung cancer following colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Colorectal cancer (CRC) survival rates continue to improve, but the risk of developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) has also increased. The most common type of SPM observed after CRC is lung cancer. In this study, we explored the prognostic factors and clinical management decisions of patients with second primary lung cancer after colorectal cancer (SPLC-CRC). We identified the data of 1637 patients with SPLC-CRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015. Cox regression modeling was used to construct a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of SPLC-CRC patients. The Fine-Gray competing risk model was used to determine the association between factors and cancer-specific mortality. After this, survival analyses were performed to assess the benefit of each treatment method on overall survival (OS). According to a multivariate analysis, age, gender, surgery, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for the first primary malignancy (FPM), whereas age, primary site, TNM stage, tumor size, and treatment were independent prognostic factors for the second primary malignancy (SPM). For the training cohort column chart as well as the validation cohort column chart, using the concordance index of OS, 0.7611 and 0.7605 were calculated. A Fine-Gray competing risk model and survival analysis showed that there is a significant correlation between the treatment of FPM and the improvement in SPM survival rates, FPM-diagnosed patients who undergo surgery in different pathological stages exhibit higher overall survival rates, Patients in stages II, III, and IV benefit from combined surgery and chemotherapy. SPM surgery (P < 0.001, HR = 0.230, 95%CI 0.032-0.426) was a protective factor for lung cancer-specific mortality. Patients with local, regional, and even distant metastases may benefit more from SPM surgery (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). In patients who did not undergo SPM surgery, radiotherapy (P < 0.001) and chemotherapy (P = 0.008) improved OS. Treatment strategy for the first tumor affects the prognosis of the second tumor significantly. SPLC-CRC is treated primarily with surgery, regardless of whether the patient has metastases, as surgery may improve outcomes. In the event that a patient is unable to undergo surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy should be considered. Treatment decisions for SPLC-CRC patients may be influenced by these findings.

Ten-Year Follow-up Results of Pure Ground-Glass Opacity-Featured Lung Adenocarcinomas After Surgery

BACKGROUND

Previously, we have demonstrated that the 5-year recurrence-free survival after surgery of pure ground-glass opacity (GGO)-featured lung adenocarcinoma is 100%. This study aimed to reveal the long-term outcomes of these patients 10 years after surgery.

METHODS

Lung adenocarcinoma patients who underwent surgery between December 2007 and December 2013 were reviewed. Patients with pure GGO-featured lung adenocarcinoma were enrolled. Postoperative survival and the risk of developing second primary lung cancer were analyzed.

RESULTS

Overall, 308 cases of pure GGO-featured lung adenocarcinomas were included. Of these patients, 226 (73.4%) were female, 268 (87.0%) were nonsmokers, and 187 (60.7%) underwent sublobar resection. The median follow-up period after surgery was 112 months. The 10-year recurrence-free survival rate of these patients was 100%, and 10-year overall survival rate was 96.9%. Both 5-year and 10-year lung cancer-specific survival were 100%. There was no difference in 10-year recurrence-free survival rates between patients who underwent lobectomy or sublobar resection (P = .697). EGFR mutations were detected in 55.6% (84 of 151) of patients who underwent mutational analysis. The risk of developing secondary primary lung cancer for pure GGO-featured lung adenocarcinoma patients at 10 years after resection was 2.4%, and was not correlated with EGFR mutation status (P = .452).

CONCLUSIONS

No recurrence was observed in patients with pure GGO-featured lung adenocarcinomas 10 years after surgery, even when pathologically evaluated as invasive adenocarcinoma. Pure GGO can be cured by surgery. Surgery is recommended for the appropriate time window with the view to cure. Our study emphasizes that radiologic pure GGO-featured lung adenocarcinomas should be distinguished from other lung adenocarcinomas.

Clinical characteristics and prostate-cancer-specific mortality of competitive risk nomogram in the second primary prostate cancer

Background

With the development of early diagnosis and treatment, the second primary malignancy (SPM) attracts increasing attention. The second primary prostate cancer (spPCa) is an important class of SPM, but remains poorly understood.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 3,322 patients with spPCa diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Chi-square test was applied to compare demographic and clinical variables and analyze causes of death. Multivariate competitive risk regression model was used to identify risk factors associated with prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and these factors were enrolled to build a nomogram of competitive risk. The C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to evaluate the discrimination ability of our nomogram.

Results

The median follow-up (interquartile range, IQR) time was 47 (24-75) months, and the median (IQR) diagnosis interval between the first primary cancer (FPC) and spPCa was 32 (16-57) months. We found that the three most common sites of SPM were the urinary system, digestive system, and skin. Through multivariate competitive risk analysis, we enrolled race (p < 0.05), tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (p < 0.001), Gleason score (p < 0.05), surgery (p = 0.002), and radiotherapy (p = 0.032) to construct the model to predict the outcomes of spPCa. The C-index was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.813-0.899) and 0.905 (95% CI, 0.941-0.868) in the training and validation set, respectively. Moreover, both the calibration curve and DCA illustrated that our nomogram performed well in predicting PCSM.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we identified four risk factors associated with the prognosis of spPCa and construct a competing risk nomogram, which performed well in predicting the 3-, 5-, and 10-year PCSM.

Comparison of stereotactic body radiation therapy versus surgery for multiple primary lung cancers after prior radical resection: A multicenter retrospective study

Background

Patients who previously underwent surgical resection of initial primary lung cancer are at a high risk of developing multiple primary lung cancers (MPLCs). The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy and safety between stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) and surgery for MPLCs patients after prior radical resection for the first lung cancers.

Methods

In this multicenter retrospective study, eligible MPLC patients with tumor diameter of 5.0 cm or less at N0M0 who underwent SBRT or reoperation between January 2013 and August 2020 were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the 3-year locoregional recurrence and treatment-related toxicity. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rates. The χ² test was adapted to assess the difference of categorical variables between the two subgroup patients.

Results

A total of 203 (73 in the SBRT group and 130 in the surgery group) patients from three academic cancer centers were evaluated with a median follow-up of 38.3 months. The cumulative 1-, 2-, and 3-year incidences of locoregional recurrence were 5.6 %, 7.0 % and 13.1 % in the SBRT group versus 3.2 %, 4.8 % and 7.4 % in the surgery group, respectively [hazard ratio (HR), 1.97; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.74-5.24; P = 0.14]. The cancer-specific survival rates were 95.9 %, 94.5 % and 88.1 % versus 96.9 %, 94.6 % and 93.8 % in the SBRT and surgery groups respectively (HR, 1.72; 95 % CI, 0.67-4.44; P = 0.23). In the SBRT group, two patients (2.7 %) suffered from grade 3 radiation pneumonitis, while in the surgery group, grade 3 complications occurred in four (3.1 %) patients, and four cases were expired due to pneumonia or pulmonary heart disease within 90 days after surgery.

Conclusions

SBRT is an effective therapeutic option with limited toxicity compared to surgery for patients with MPLCs after prior radical surgical resection, and it could be considered as an alternative treatment for those patients.

Risk-based screening for second primary extrapulmonary malignancies in stage I lung cancer patients: A study based on SEER database

OBJECTIVES

We conducted this study to identify the risk for second primary malignancy (SPM), especially for second primary extrapulmonary malignancy (SPEM), in resected stage I lung cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Resected stage I lung cancer patients were retrospectively enrolled from the SEER database (2008-2017). Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was used to evaluate the relative risk of SPM of patients as compared to general population. Competing risk model was utilized to identify the risk factors for SPEM of increased risk (rSPEM). A simplified nomogram based on the factors was developed to stratify patients at different risks of rSPEM.

RESULTS

A total of 14,495 patients were enrolled, and 1779 (12.27%) patients developed SPM during follow-up, of which 896 (50.37%) were SPEM. Enrolled patients had higher risk of SPM than general population (SIR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.83 - 2.01). The yearly morbidity of SPM was about 3% - 4% over time. The three most frequent SPEM were prostate cancer, breast cancer, and urinary bladder cancer. The competing-risk multivariable analysis showed that increasing age, male, and white race were independent risk factors for rSPEM. The simplified nomogram showed favorable performance in stratifying patients at different risks of rSPEM (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The risk of SPM in stage I lung cancer patients was high. Risk factors for rSPEM were identified and the corresponding simplified nomogram based on the risk factors could discriminate patients at different risks well. The nomogram might help physicians to make more appropriate screening strategy for the SPEM.

Incidence and risk outcomes of second primary malignancy of patients with post-operative colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the incidence and the risk factors of incidence for second primary malignancies (SPMs) onset among survivors diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

A large population-based cohort study was performed. Data of patients diagnosed with CRC was identified and extracted from 8 cancer registries of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 1990 to December 2017. The outcome of interest was percentage and common sites of SPM onset after primary CRC diagnosis. The cumulative incidence and standardize incidence rates (SIRs) were also reported. Afterwards, we estimated sub-distribution hazards ratios (SHRs) and relative risks (RRs) for SPM occurrence using multivariable competing-risk and Poisson regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 152,402 patients with CRC were included to analyze. Overall, 23,816 patients of all CRC survivors (15.6%) were reported SPM occurrence. The highest proportion of SPMs development after primary CRC diagnosis was second CRC, followed by lung and bronchus cancer among all survivors. Also, CRC survivors were more susceptible to develop second gastrointestinal cancers (GICs). Besides, pelvic cancers were analyzed with a relative high proportion among patients who received RT in comparison to those without RT. The cumulative incidence of all SPMs onset was 22.16% (95% CI: 21.82-22.49%) after near 30-year follow-up. Several factors including older age, male, married status, and localized stage of CRC were related to the high risk of SPMs onset. In treatment-specific analyses, RT was related to a higher cumulative incidence of SPMs occurrence (all SPMs: 14.08% vs. 8.72%; GICs: 2.67% vs. 2.04%; CRC: 1.01% vs. 1.57%; all p < 0.01). Furthermore, the increased risk of SPMs onset was found among patients who received RT than patients within the NRT group (SHR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.32-1.71), p < 0.01; RR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.45-1.79, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The present study described the incidence pattern of SPM among CRC survivors and identified the risk factors of the SPM onset. RT treatment for patients diagnosed with CRC may increase the risk of SPMs occurrence. The findings suggest the need for long-term follow-up surveillance for these patients.

Lung cancer screening

Randomised controlled trials, including the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and the NELSON trial, have shown reduced mortality with lung cancer screening with low-dose CT compared with chest radiography or no screening. Although research has provided clarity on key issues of lung cancer screening, uncertainty remains about aspects that might be critical to optimise clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This Review brings together current evidence on lung cancer screening, including an overview of clinical trials, considerations regarding the identification of individuals who benefit from lung cancer screening, management of screen-detected findings, smoking cessation interventions, cost-effectiveness, the role of artificial intelligence and biomarkers, and current challenges, solutions, and opportunities surrounding the implementation of lung cancer screening programmes from an international perspective. Further research into risk models for patient selection, personalised screening intervals, novel biomarkers, integrated cardiovascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessments, smoking cessation interventions, and artificial intelligence for lung nodule detection and risk stratification are key opportunities to increase the efficiency of lung cancer screening and ensure equity of access.

Association between radiotherapy for surgically treated oral cavity cancer and secondary lung cancer

Background

There is limited research on the incidence of secondary lung cancer (SLC) after radiotherapy (RT) for oral cavity cancer (OCC). Therefore, we investigated the association between RT for OCC and the risk of SLC and the overall survival of these patients.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with OCC between 1975 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The cumulative incidence of SLC, relative risk (RR) of RT vs. no RT (NRT), standardized incidence ratios (SIR), and survival outcomes were assessed.

Results

A total of 10,936 patients with OCC were included. Of these, 429 (3.92%) patients developed SLC, where 136 (5.02%) received RT and 293 (3.56%) did not. The cumulative incidence of SLC during follow-up was 6.89% and 4.84% in the RT and NRT patients, respectively. RT was associated with a higher risk of SLC. In the subset analysis, the results showed that a higher risk of developing SLC among patients with index OCC in most subgroups. Dynamic RR and SIR revealed a decreased risk of SLC with increasing latency time. No difference was observed in the 10-year survival rates for patients with SLC who received RT or not or compared with primary lung cancer.

Conclusion

RT was associated with a higher risk of SLC, and patients diagnosed with OCC could be followed for 5-10 years after diagnosis.

Association between postoperative radiotherapy for young-onset head and neck cancer and long-term risk of second primary malignancy: a population-based study

Background

Second primary malignancy (SPM) represents the leading long-term cause of death among patients with index head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to quantify the association between postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the risk of SPM development for index HNSCC among adolescent and young patients, who are particularly vulnerable to radiation-associated impacts due to their increased tissue susceptibilities and longer life expectancies.

Methods

This study was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to collect the data of 5 year survivors of index young-onset HNSCC from 1975 to 2011. The outcome of interest was SPM, a new, metachronous malignancy after the index HNSCC. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) were used to quantify the PORT-associated risks externally, and relative risks (RRs) were estimated by the multivariate Poisson regression analysis to quantify the PORT-associated risks internally.

Results

Of the included 2771 5 year survivors with index young-onset HNSCCs, the receipt of PORT (37.6%) was associated with higher risk of SPMs (RR, 1.23; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.43). PORT-associated risks were elevated for the majority of sites, including head and neck (RR, 1.19; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.50) and lung (RR, 1.67; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.34). With regarding to the subsites of head and neck, RRs were above unity in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (RR, 1.68; 95% CI 1.39 to 2.03) and laryngeal SCC (RR, 1.02; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.43). A relatively greater RR was observed for patients younger than 35 years (RR, 1.44, 95% CI 0.37 to 5.57) and those diagnosed with localized diseases (RR, 1.16, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.5). PORT-associated risks were increased remarkably after 15 years of follow-up (RR, 1.24; 95% CI 0.97 to 1.58).

Conclusions

An association was discovered between PORT treatment and increased long-term risk of SPM among patients with index young-onset HNSCC. The findings suggest long-term follow-up surveillance for these patients, particularly those with oral cavity SCC or laryngeal SCC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03544-y.

Treating with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors (TKIs) Accompanying Lower Incidence of Second Primary Cancers

Lung cancer survivors are at risk of developing second primary cancers (SPCs). Although some risk factors for the development of SPCs have been addressed, their impacts have not been clarified. This study, based on Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), a nationwide database, was designed to investigate the risk factors for SPCs in patients with initial lung cancer and identify the impacts of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment on the development of SPCs. In this study, 37,954 individuals were included, of whom 2819 had SPCs. These patients were further divided into the second primary lung cancers (SPLC) and second primary extrapulmonary cancer (SPEC) groups. Among the patients with lung cancer without SPCs, those aged <65 years accounted for 53.15%. Patients aged ≥65 years accounted for 40.18% and 53.24% in the SPLC and SPEC groups, respectively. Females accounted for 50.3% of patients without SPC, 54% of the SPLC group, and 44.3% of the SPEC group. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models showed increased hazard ratios for smoking, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, and lower HRs for surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and TKIs. Patients undergoing surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were associated with a lower risk of SPCs. Treatment with EGFR TKIs was a significant and independent factor associated with lower incidence of SPCs. This study may encourage researchers to establish predictive models based on our results to assess the risk factors for SPCs, and therefore, early screening and intervention could be applied, and the SPCs-related mortality and relevant medical costs could be reduced.

Analysis of prognosis and treatment decisions for patients with second primary lung cancer following esophageal cancer

Introduction

As the long-term prognosis of esophageal cancer (EC) is improving, concerns of a second primary malignancy (SPM) have increased. However, research on lung cancer as the SPM after EC is limited. Therefore, we aimed to explore the prognostic factors and clinical treatment decisions of patients with second primary lung cancer following esophageal cancer (SPLC-EC).

Materials and methods

We identified the data of 715 patients with SPLC-EC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 1975 to 2016. We established a nomogram through Cox regression modelling to predict the prognosis of patients with SPLC-EC. We determined the association between factors and cancer-specific mortality using the Fine-Gray competing risk model. Then, we performed survival analysis to evaluate the benefits of different treatment methods for overall survival (OS).

Results

The multivariate analysis indicated that sex, insurance recode, age, surgery and chemotherapy 0for first primary malignancy (FPM), primary site, stage, and surgery for SPM were independent prognostic factors for OS. Using concordance indices for OS, the nomogram of our cohort showed a higher value than the SEER historic-stage nomogram (0.8805 versus 0.7370). The Fine-Gray competing risk model indicated that surgery for FPM and SPM was the independent prognostic factor for EC-specific mortality (P=0.016, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.532) and LC-specific mortality (p=0.016, HR=0.457), respectively (p<0.001). Compared to the patient group having distant metastasis, patients with localized and regional metastasis benefitted from undergoing surgery for SPM (P<0.001, P<0.001, respectively). For patients without surgery for SPM, radiotherapy (P<0.001) and chemotherapy (P<0.001) could improve OS.

Conclusions

Surgery remains the mainstay for managing SPLC-EC, especially for localized and regional tumors. However, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are recommended for patients who cannot undergo surgery. These findings can have implications in the treatment decision-making for patients with SPLC-EC.

Brief Report: Contralateral Lobectomy for Second Primary NSCLC: Perioperative and Long-Term Outcomes

Introduction

Anatomical resection-often by lobectomy-is the standard of care for patients with early stage NSCLC. With increased diagnosis, survival, and prevalence of persons with early stage NSCLC, the incidence of second primary NSCLC, and consequently, the need for contralateral lobectomy for a metachronous cancer, is increasing. Perioperative outcomes after contralateral lobectomy are unknown.

Methods

Among patients who underwent contralateral lobectomy for second primary NSCLC during 1995 to 2020, we evaluated 90-day mortality and major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo grades 3-5) rates and their association with clinicopathologic variables, including the year of contralateral lobectomy and duration between lobectomies.

Results

A total of 98 patients underwent contralateral lobectomy for second primary NSCLC; 51 during an early time period (1995-2009) and 47 from a late time period (2010-2020). There were five mortalities and 23 patients with major morbidities after contralateral lobectomy; both rates decreased in 2010 to 2020 compared with 1995 to 2009 (mortality 10%-0%, major morbidity 35%-11%). Major morbidity was associated with an interval of less than 1 year between lobectomies, a diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide <80%, and right lower lobe resections. Mortality was associated with squamous cell carcinoma. Patients who underwent contralateral lobectomy for stage I NSCLC had 74% (95% confidence interval: 64%-85%) 3-year overall survival and 15% (95% confidence interval: 6.5%-24%) 3-year lung cancer cumulative incidence of death.

Conclusions

Contralateral lobectomy for second primary early stage NSCLC was associated with poor outcomes before 2010. Since 2010, perioperative and long-term outcomes of contralateral lobectomy have been comparable with reported outcomes after unilateral lobectomy.

The Survival Impact of Second Primary Lung Cancer in Patients With Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer survivors have a high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC), but little is known about the survival impact of SPLC diagnosis.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 138 969 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER), who were surgically treated for initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1988-2013. Each patient was followed from the date of IPLC diagnosis to SPLC diagnosis (for those with SPLC) and last vital status through 2016. We performed multivariable Cox regression to evaluate the association between overall survival and SPLC diagnosis as a time-varying predictor. To investigate potential effect modification, we tested interaction between SPLC and IPLC stage. Using data from the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC) (n = 1540 IPLC patients with surgery), we evaluated the survival impact of SPLC by smoking status. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

A total of 12 115 (8.7%) patients developed SPLC in SEER over 700 421 person-years of follow-up. Compared with patients with single primary lung cancer, those with SPLC had statistically significantly reduced overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.06 to 2.17; P < .001). The effect of SPLC on reduced survival was more pronounced among patients with early stage IPLC vs advanced-stage IPLC (HR = 2.14, 95% CI = 2.08 to 2.20, vs HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.70, respectively; Pinteraction < .001). Analysis using MEC data showed that the effect of SPLC on reduced survival was statistically significantly larger among persons who actively smoked at initial diagnosis vs those who formerly or never smoked (HR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.48 to 3.61, vs HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 0.98 to 2.03, respectively; Pinteraction = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

SPLC diagnosis is statistically significantly associated with decreased survival in SEER and MEC. Intensive surveillance targeting patients with early stage IPLC and active smoking at IPLC diagnosis may lead to a larger survival benefit.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Second Primary Small Cell Lung Cancer After Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A SEER-Based Study

Background

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) survivors are at an increased risk of developing second primary malignancies, such as small cell lung cancer. This paper sought to establish a prognostic nomogram to assess overall survival (OS) in patients with second primary small cell lung cancer (SPSCLC) after NSCLC.

Methods

420 patients who developed SPSCLC after NSCLC were randomly split into the training and validation groups. A nomogram was established by stepwise regression. Area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots were applied to assess the prognostic performance of the nomogram. Concordance index (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to compare the nomogram with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th staging system. Survival risk classification was constructed based on the nomogram.

Results

Five variables were chosen to construct the nomogram. The AUC showed that it had a satisfactory discrimination ability. All calibration plots displayed good concordance between nomogram and observation. The C-index, IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomogram was superior to the AJCC 8th staging system. The Kaplan-Meier curves suggested huge differences in prognosis among the three risk groups.

Conclusion

This study build a nomogram and risk stratification system for predicting probabilities of OS in patients with SPSCLC after NSCLC, which can help clinicians in individualized survival assessment and treatment decisions.

Surgical Issues for Operable Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Surgical care for early stage non-small-cell lung cancer continuously evolves with new procedures, techniques and care pathways. The most obvious recent change was the transition to minimally invasive procedures, but numerous other aspects of care have also been refined to improve safety and tolerability. These care advancements are essential as we move into an era with increased early detection as a result of screening and greater indications for the use of adjuvant and neoadjuvant strategies.

Nomogram to predict cause-specific mortality of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma undergoing surgery: a competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

Rectal adenocarcinoma is one of major public health problems, severely threatening people's health and life. Cox proportional hazard models have been applied in previous studies widely to analyze survival data. However, such models ignore competing risks and treat them as censored, resulting in excessive statistical errors. Therefore, a competing-risk model was applied with the aim of decreasing risk of bias and thereby obtaining more-accurate results and establishing a competing-risk nomogram for better guiding clinical practice.

METHODS

A total of 22,879 rectal adenocarcinoma cases who underwent primary-site surgical resection were collected from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. Death due to rectal adenocarcinoma (DRA) and death due to other causes (DOC) were two competing endpoint events in the competing-risk regression analysis. The cumulative incidence function for DRA and DOC at each time point was calculated. Gray's test was applied in the univariate analysis and Gray's proportional subdistribution hazard model was adopted in the multivariable analysis to recognize significant differences among groups and obtain significant factors that could affect patients' prognosis. Next, A competing-risk nomogram was established predicting the cause-specific outcome of rectal adenocarcinoma cases. Finally, we plotted calibration curve and calculated concordance indexes (c-index) to evaluate the model performance.

RESULTS

22,879 patients were included finally. The results showed that age, race, marital status, chemotherapy, AJCC stage, tumor size, and number of metastasis lymph nodes were significant prognostic factors for postoperative rectal adenocarcinoma patients. We further successfully constructed a competing-risk nomogram to predict the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cause-specific mortality of rectal adenocarcinoma patients. The calibration curve and C-index indicated that the competing-risk nomogram model had satisfactory prognostic ability.

CONCLUSION

Competing-risk analysis could help us obtain more-accurate results for rectal adenocarcinoma patients who had undergone surgery, which could definitely help clinicians obtain accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients and make better clinical decisions.

Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Permanent Stoma after Laparoscopic Intersphincteric Resection

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors for the development of a permanent stoma in laparoscopic intersphincteric resection (LS-ISR) for ultralow rectal adenocarcinoma and to develop and validate a prediction model to predict the probability of permanent stoma after surgery.

METHODS

A primary cohort consisting of 301 consecutive patients who underwent LS-ISR was enrolled in this study. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors and develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. An independent validation cohort contained 91 consecutive patients from January 2012 to January 2019.

RESULTS

The permanent stoma rate was 11.3% (34/301) in the primary cohort and 18.7% (17/91) in the validation cohort. Multivariable analysis revealed that nCRT (OR, 3.195; 95% CI, 1.169-8.733; P=0.024), ASA score of 3 (OR, 5.062; 95% CI, 1.877-13.646; P=0.001), distant metastasis (OR, 14.645; 95% CI, 3.186-67.315; P=0.001), and anastomotic leakage (OR, 11.308; 95% CI, 3.650-35.035; P<0.001) were independent risk factors for permanent stoma, and a nomogram was established. The AUCs of the nomogram were 0.842 and 0.858 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed good calibration in both cohorts. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a nomogram for ultralow rectal adenocarcinoma patients who underwent LS-ISR, and the nomogram could help surgeons identify which patients are at a higher risk of a permanent stoma after surgery.

Smoking Cessation After Lung Cancer Diagnosis and the Risk of Second Primary Lung Cancer: The Multiethnic Cohort Study

Background

Smoking cessation reduces lung cancer mortality. However, little is known about whether diagnosis of lung cancer impacts changes in smoking behaviors. Furthermore, the effects of smoking cessation on the risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC) have not been established yet. This study aims to examine smoking behavior changes after initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) diagnosis and estimate the effect of smoking cessation on SPLC risk following IPLC diagnosis.

Methods

The study cohort consisted of 986 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort Study who were free of lung cancer and active smokers at baseline (1993-1996), provided 10-year follow-up smoking data (2003-2008), and were diagnosed with IPLC in 1993-2017. The primary outcome was a change in smoking status from “current” at baseline to “former” at 10-year follow-up (ie, smoking cessation), analyzed using logistic regression. The second outcome was SPLC incidence after smoking cessation, estimated using cause-specific Cox regression. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

Results

Among 986 current smokers at baseline, 51.1% reported smoking cessation at 10-year follow-up. The smoking cessation rate was statistically significantly higher (80.6%) for those diagnosed with IPLC between baseline and 10-year follow-up vs those without IPLC diagnosis (45.4%) during the 10-year period (adjusted odds ratio = 5.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.38 to 7.98; P < .001). Incidence of SPLC was statistically significantly lower among the 504 participants who reported smoking cessation at follow-up compared with those without smoking cessation (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.14 to 0.67; P = .003).

Conclusion

Lung cancer diagnosis has a statistically significant impact on smoking cessation. Quitting smoking after IPLC diagnosis may reduce the risk of developing a subsequent malignancy in the lungs.

Does irradiation for initial primary lung cancer affect the risk of metachronous second primary lung cancer?

Several studies have reported inconsistent results about second primary lung cancer (SPLC) after irradiation for initial primary lung cancer (IPLC). The present study aims to assess the effect of ionising radiation on the risk of SPLC. The study population came from SEER database, and included a population-based cohort of 21,397 individuals diagnosed with IPLC between 2004 and 2009 who survived more than 7 years after the initial diagnosis. The first aim was to estimate the risk of SPLC in different periods and the cumulative risk of SPLC. Subsequently, a generalized additive model with Poisson regression analysis and a proportional sub-distribution hazard model was used to determine whether radiation affected the risk of SPLC. Until Dec 2016, there were 488 individuals who developed SPLC, 5368 individuals who died, and there were 15,541 alive individuals, respectively. The risk of SPLC was found to gradually decline with the extent of follow-up time. Age and histology were the two main risk factors of developing SPLC in Poisson regression and competing risk analyses. In Poisson regression analysis, radiation had no significant effect on the risk of developing SPLC (adjusted OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.54, 1.19, P = 0.28). When considered competing risk of all-cause death, the risk of SPLC in the radiation group was similar to that in the non-radiation group (adjusted sHR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.56, 1.13, P = 0.21). The risk of SPLC was different during different follow-up time. Irradiation for IPLC seemingly did not affect the risk of developing SPLC.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool for Second Primary Lung Cancer

Background

With advancing therapeutics, lung cancer (LC) survivors are rapidly increasing in number. Although mounting evidence suggests LC survivors have high risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC), there is no validated prediction model available for clinical use to identify high-risk LC survivors for SPLC.

Methods

Using data from 6325 ever-smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1993-2017, we developed a prediction model for 10-year SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis using cause-specific Cox regression. We evaluated the model’s clinical utility using decision curve analysis and externally validated it using 2 population-based data—Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)—that included 2963 and 2844 IPLC (101 and 93 SPLC cases), respectively.

Results

Over 14 063 person-years, 145 (2.3%) ever-smoking IPLC patients developed SPLC in MEC. Our prediction model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy (Brier score = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4 to 3.3) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics [AUC] = 81.9%, 95% CI = 78.2% to 85.5%) based on bootstrap validation in MEC. Stratification by the estimated risk quartiles showed that the observed SPLC incidence was statistically significantly higher in the 4th vs 1st quartile (9.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001). Decision curve analysis indicated that in a wide range of 10-year risk thresholds from 1% to 20%, the model yielded a larger net-benefit vs hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios. External validation using PLCO and NLST showed an AUC of 78.8% (95% CI = 74.6% to 82.9%) and 72.7% (95% CI = 67.7% to 77.7%), respectively.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a SPLC prediction model based on large population-based cohorts. The proposed prediction model can help identify high-risk LC patients for SPLC and can be incorporated into clinical decision making for SPLC surveillance and screening.

Second pulmonary resection for a second primary lung cancer: analysis of morbidity and survival

OBJECTIVES

Evaluating morbidity and survival of patients operated on for a second primary non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

Retrospective collection of data from patients operated on for a second NSCLC between 2009 and 2018.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients met the inclusion criteria. At the time of second pulmonary resection, the median time between the 2 surgeries was 25 months (5-44.5 months). Patients' median age was 65 years (61-68 years). Median tumour size was 16 mm (10-22 mm). Thoracoscopy was used in 75% of cases. The resection was a pneumonectomy (n = 1), bilobectomy (n = 1), lobectomy (n = 15), segmentectomy (n = 32) or wedge resection (n = 3). The length of stay was 7 days (5-9 days). Mortality was null and morbidity was 36.5%, mainly from grade I-II complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The median follow-up was 28 months (13-50 months). The median overall survival was 67 months (95% confidence interval 60.8-73.1 months). Survival at 5 years and specific survival were 71.1% and 67.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A second surgical resection of either synchronous or metachronous NSCLC has a morbidity that is not superior to the morbidity of the first operation. The new tumour is usually diagnosed at an early stage. An anatomical sublobar resection is most likely the best compromise. It might also be considered for the first operation when there is a suspicious synchronous lesion that may require surgery at a later stage.

Risk of secondary neoplasms after external-beam radiation therapy treatment of pediatric low-grade gliomas: a SEER analysis, 1973-2015

OBJECTIVE

Although past studies have associated external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with higher incidences of secondary neoplasms (SNs), its effect on SN development from pediatric low-grade gliomas (LGGs), defined as WHO grade I and II gliomas of astrocytic or oligodendrocytic origin, is not well understood. Utilizing a national cancer registry, the authors sought to characterize the risk of SN development after EBRT treatment of pediatric LGG.

METHODS

A total of 1245 pediatric patient (aged 0-17 years) records from 1973 to 2015 were assembled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariable and multivariable subdistribution hazard regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic impact of demographic, tumor, and treatment-related covariates. Propensity score matching was used to balance baseline characteristics. Cumulative incidence analyses measured the time to, and rate of, SN development, stratified by receipt of EBRT and controlled for competing mortality risk. The Fine and Gray semiparametric model was used to estimate future SN risk in EBRT- and non-EBRT-treated pediatric patients.

RESULTS

In this study, 366 patients received EBRT and 879 did not. Forty-six patients developed SNs after an LGG diagnosis, and 27 of these patients received EBRT (OR 3.61, 95% CI 1.90-6.95; p < 0.001). For patients alive 30 years from the initial LGG diagnosis, the absolute risk of SN development in the EBRT-treated cohort was 12.61% (95% CI 8.31-13.00) compared with 4.99% (95% CI 4.38-12.23) in the non-EBRT-treated cohort (p = 0.013). Cumulative incidence curves that were adjusted for competing events still demonstrated higher rates of SN development in the EBRT-treated patients with LGGs. After matching across available covariates and again adjusting for the competing risk of mortality, a clear association between EBRT and SN development remained (subhazard ratio 2.26, 95% CI 1.21-4.20; p = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiation therapy was associated with an increased risk of future SNs for pediatric patients surviving LGGs. These data suggest that the long-term implications of EBRT should be considered when making treatment decisions for this patient population.

Therapeutic method for early-stage second primary non-small lung cancer: analysis of a population-based database

BACKGROUND

Early-stage non-small lung cancer patients may survive long enough to develop second primary lung cancers. However, few studies have accurately described the therapeutic method, evaluation or prognostic factors for long-term survival in this complex clinical scenario.

METHODS

Patients who had first and second primary non-small lung cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2015 were evaluated. Patients were included when their tumors were pathologically diagnosed as non-small lung cancer and in the early-stage (less than 3 cm and with no lymph node metastasis). Therapeutic methods were categorized as lobectomy, sublobectomy or no surgery. The influence of different therapeutic methods on the overall survival rate was compared.

RESULTS

For the first primary tumor, patients who underwent lobectomy achieved superior survival benefits compared with patients who underwent sublobectomy. For the second primary tumor, long-term survival was similar in patients who underwent lobectomy and those who underwent sublobectomy treatment. The multivariate analysis indicated that age, disease-free time interval, sex, and first and second types of surgery were independent prognostic factors for long-term survival. Our results showed that the 5-year overall survival rate was 91.9% when the disease-free interval exceeded 24 months.

CONCLUSION

Lobectomy for the first primary tumor followed by sublobectomy for the second primary tumor may be a beneficial therapeutic method for patients. If the disease-free interval exceeds 24 months, the second primary tumor will have no influence on the natural course for patients diagnosed with a first primary non-small lung cancer.

Tobacco Smoking and Risk of Second Primary Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Lung cancer survivors are at high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, SPLC risk factors have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. We examined the risk factors for SPLC across multiple epidemiologic cohorts and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on reducing SPLC risk.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 7059 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) diagnosed with an initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) between 1993 and 2017. Cause-specific proportional hazards models estimated SPLC risk. We conducted validation studies using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 3423 IPLC cases) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (N = 4731 IPLC cases) cohorts and pooled the SPLC risk estimates using random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 163 MEC cases (2.3%) developed SPLC. Smoking pack-years (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18 per 10 pack-years, p < 0.001) and smoking intensity (HR = 1.30 per 10 cigarettes per day, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased SPLC risk. Individuals who met the 2013 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's screening criteria at IPLC diagnosis also had an increased SPLC risk (HR = 1.92; p < 0.001). Validation studies with the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition revealed consistent results. Meta-analysis yielded pooled HRs of 1.16 per 10 pack-years (pmeta < 0.001), 1.25 per 10 cigarettes per day (pmeta < 0.001), and 1.99 (pmeta < 0.001) for meeting the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's criteria. In MEC, smoking cessation after IPLC diagnosis was associated with an 83% reduction in SPLC risk (HR = 0.17; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for SPLC. Smoking cessation may reduce the risk of SPLC. Additional strategies for SPLC surveillance and screening are warranted.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Resected Adenocarcinoma In Situ and Minimally Invasive Adenocarcinoma of the Lung

INTRODUCTION

The WHO classification of lung tumors defines adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA) as cancers with no or limited histologic invasive components. The probability of patients with AIS or MIA being recurrence free for 5 years postoperatively has been found to be 100%. This study aimed to analyze the prognosis of patients with AIS or MIA after more than 5 postoperative years.

METHODS

We reviewed the pathologic findings of 4768 patients who underwent resection for lung cancer between 1998 and 2010. Of these, 524 patients with curative resection for AIS (207 cases, 39.5%) and MIA (317 cases, 60.5%) were included. Postoperative recurrence, survival, and development of secondary primary lung cancer (SPLC) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the included patients, 342 (65.3%) were of female sex, 333 (63.5%) were nonsmokers, and 229 (43.7%) underwent sublobar resection. Average pathologic total tumor diameter was 15.2 plus or minus 5.5 mm. Median postoperative follow-up period was 100 months (range: 1-237). No recurrence of lung cancer was observed for either AIS or MIA cases. Estimated 10-year postoperative disease-specific survival rates were 100% and 100% (p = 0.72), and overall survival rates were 95.3% and 97.8% (p = 0.94) for AIS and MIA cases, respectively. Estimated incidence rates of metachronous SPLC at 10 years after surgery were 5.6% and 7.7% for AIS and MIA, respectively (p = 0.45), and these were not correlated with the EGFR mutation status.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the development of metachronous SPLC should be noted, the risk of recurrence is quite low at more than 5 years after resection of AIS and MIA. This finding strengthens the clinical value of distinguishing AIS and MIA from other adenocarcinomas of the lung.

Metabolomic profiling for second primary lung cancer: A pilot case-control study

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer survivors have a high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). While national screening guidelines have been established for initial primary lung cancer (IPLC), no consensus guidelines exist for SPLC. Furthermore, the factors that contribute to SPLC risk have not been established. This study examines the potential for using serum metabolomics to identify metabolite biomarkers that differ between SPLC cases and IPLC controls.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this pilot case-control study, we applied an untargeted metabolomics approach based on ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectroscopy (UPLC-MS/MS) to serum samples of 82 SPLC cases and 82 frequency matched IPLC controls enrolled in the Boston Lung Cancer Study. Random forest and unconditional logistic regression models identified metabolites associated with SPLC. Candidate metabolites were integrated into a SPLC risk prediction model and the model performance was evaluated through a risk stratification approach.

RESULTS

The untargeted analysis detected 1008 named and 316 unnamed metabolites among all study participants. Metabolites that were significantly associated with SPLC (False Discovery Rate q-value < 0.2) included 5-methylthioadenosine (odds ratio [OR] = 2.04, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.39-3.01; P = 2.8 × 10^-4) and phenylacetylglutamine (OR = 2.65, 95 % CI 1.56-4.51; P = 3.2 × 10^-4), each exhibiting approximately 1.5-fold increased levels among SPLC cases versus IPLC controls. In stratifying the study participants across quartiles of estimated SPLC risk, the risk prediction model identified a significantly higher proportion of SPLC cases in the fourth compared to the first quartile (68.3 % versus 39.0 %; P = 0.044).

CONCLUSION

SPLC cases may have distinct metabolomic profiles compared to those in IPLC patients without SPLC. A risk stratification approach integrating metabolomics may be useful for distinguishing patients based on SPLC risk. Prospective validation studies are needed to further evaluate the potential for leveraging metabolomics in SPLC surveillance and screening.

Second primary pleomorphic carcinoma arising from the pneumonectomy cavity of non-small cell lung cancer: A case report

Here, we report a thirteen years’ survivor of initial primary lung cancer, who successfully diagnosed with second primary lung cancer(SPLC). It was arising from the pneumonectomy cavity of a non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC). Few cases of SPLC associated with the post-pneumonectomy cavity have been reported in the literature. The histologic results of SPLC was metastatic pleomorphic carcinoma. It is a rare type of lung cancer; which incidence has been reported to range from 0.1% to 0.4% among all lung cancers. Based on regular follow-up with chest computed tomography(CT) and an understanding of post-pneumonectomy changes, the second primary pleomorphic carcinoma was correctly diagnosed and appropriately treated.

Three metachronous primary lung cancers in a chronic smoker: A case report and review of the literature

RATIONALE

Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Smoking is major risk factor for initial and subsequent lung cancer especially in active smokers. Treatment of subsequent lung cancer depends on whether it is synchronous or metachronous. We report a rare case of triple metachronous lung cancer and review of literature of patients with triple metachronous cancers. This will be the second case reported of triple metachronous lung cancer.

PATIENT CONCERNS

A 60-year-old male, active smoker with diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and peripheral arterial disease presented with cough and hemoptysis. Initial computed tomography (CT) scan showed right upper lobe spiculated mass.

DIAGNOSIS

He underwent transthoracic needle biopsy for right upper lobe mass, showing primary lung adenocarcinoma (ADC)-Stage-IIIA. He continued to smoke and 9-years later had new left upper lobe spiculated nodule, which on surgical resection showed squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)-Stage-IA1. Despite counselling on smoking cessation, he was unable to quit. Six months later, he presented with shortness of breath and CT chest showing right hilar adenopathy in right upper and lower lobes. He underwent transbronchial biopsies of lesion which showed small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC).

INTERVENTIONS

His initial lung ADC-Stage-IIIA, was treated with chemotherapy, weekly thoracic radiation and additional chemotherapy cycles. Nine years later, his left upper lobe mass showing SCC-Stage-IA1 was deemed curative after apical resection and he was kept on surveillance. Six months later, after diagnosis of SCLC in right upper and lower lobe, patient was not a candidate for systemic chemotherapy due to poor performance status and opted for hospice care.

OUTCOMES

His initial lung ADC-Stage-IIIA showed complete radiological response with chemotherapy and radiation. Subsequent SCC-Stage-IA1 was deemed curative after resection. Due to his poor performance status, he was not a candidate for chemotherapy for SCLC and patient opted for hospice care.

LESSONS

Smoking is a major risk factor for developing lung cancer and with continued smoking, patients are at higher risk for developing subsequent primary lung cancers. We recommend, patients with lung cancer must quit smoking, and those who do not, should remain on long-term surveillance.

Perioperative CRP: A novel inflammation-based classification in gastric cancer for recurrence and chemotherapy benefit

Background

Perioperative C‐reactive protein (CRP) levels have effects on the prognosis of cancer patients. We intended to determine the prognostic value of combining the two for gastric cancer (GC).

Methods

Data were extracted from a clinical trial. By calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and the C‐index, the predictive value of CRPs among different time points, including preoperative (pre‐CRP), postoperative days 1, 3, and 5 (post‐CRPs), and postoperative maximum CRP (post‐CRP_max), was derived. Multivariate analysis was performed to further explore the independent variates for recurrence‐free survival (RFS).

Results

Finally, 401 patients were available in the present study. For RFS, higher AUC (0.692) and concordance index (0.678) of pre‐CRP were observed when compared with those of post‐CRPs. Further, among post‐CRPs, post‐CRP_max had the highest predictive values (AUC: 0.591; concordance index: 0.585) among the other post‐CRPs. The threshold values in predicting RFS for pre‐CRP and post‐CRP_max were 3.1 mg/L and 77.1 mg/L. Multivariate analysis showed both pre‐CRP≥3.1 mg/L (high‐pre‐CRP) and post‐CRP_max≥77.1 mg/L (high‐post‐CRP_max) were risk factors for RFS. Postoperative chemotherapy benefit was further analyzed for patients with stage II/III GC and indicated that patients with pre‐CRP<3.1 mg/L had better prognosis without benefit from postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), p = 0.557. In high‐pre‐CRP patients, only patients with post‐CRP_max≥77.1 mg/L but not post‐CRP_max<77.1 mg/L benefited from postoperative ACT (RFS: 33.2% vs 49.9% for non‐chemotherapy group and chemotherapy group, respectively, p = 0.037). Analyses for overall survival obtained the similar outcomes.

Conclusions

Both high‐pre‐CRP and high‐post‐CRP_max are associated with worse prognosis in GC. ACT seems to only improve the prognosis for stage II/III GC with pre‐CRP≥3.1 mg/L and post‐CRP_max≥77.1 mg/L after radical gastrectomy. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and explore the potential mechanism.

Molecular characterization of breast cancer: a potential novel immune-related lncRNAs signature

Background

Accumulating evidence has demonstrated that immune-related lncRNAs (IRLs) are commonly aberrantly expressed in breast cancer (BC). Thus, we aimed to establish an IRL-based tool to improve prognosis prediction in BC patients.

Methods

We obtained IRL expression profiles in large BC cohorts (N = 911) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Then, in light of the correlation between each IRL and recurrence-free survival (RFS), we screened prognostic IRL signatures to construct a novel RFS nomogram via a Cox regression model. Subsequently, the performance of the IRL-based model was evaluated through discrimination, calibration ability, risk stratification ability and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

A total of 52 IRLs were obtained from TCGA. Based on multivariate Cox regression analyses, four IRLs (A1BG-AS1, AC004477.3, AC004585.1 and AC004854.2) and two risk parameters (tumor subtype and TNM stage) were utilized as independent indicators to develop a novel prognostic model. In terms of predictive accuracy, the IRL-based model was distinctly superior to the TNM staging system (AUC: 0.728 VS 0.673, P = 0.010). DCA indicated that our nomogram had favorable clinical practicability. In addition, risk stratification analysis showed that the IRL-based tool efficiently divided BC patients into high- and low-risk groups (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

A novel IRL-based model was constructed to predict the risk of 5-year RFS in BC. Our model can improve the predictive power of the TNM staging system and identify high-risk patients with tumor recurrence to implement more appropriate treatment strategies.

Statistical inference for decision curve analysis, with applications to cataract diagnosis

Statistical learning methods are widely used in medical literature for the purpose of diagnosis or prediction. Conventional accuracy assessment via sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves does not fully account for clinical utility of a specific model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) becomes a novel complement as it incorporates a clinical judgment of the relative value of benefits (treating a true positive case) and harms (treating a false positive case) associated with prediction models. The preference of a patient or a policy-maker is formulated statistically as the underlying threshold probability, above which the patient would choose to be treated. Net benefit is then calculated for possible threshold probability, which places benefits and harms on the same scale. We consider the inference problems for DCA in this paper. Interval estimation procedure and inference methodology are provided after we derive the relevant asymptotic properties. Our formulation can accommodate the classification problems with multiple categories. We carry out numerical studies to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An eye disease dataset is analyzed to illustrate our proposals.

Repeated anatomical pulmonary resection for metachronous ipsilateral second non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the surgical outcomes of repeated pulmonary resection for metachronous ipsilateral second non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

A retrospective review identified 104 (3.6%) patients who underwent surgical resection for ipsilateral metachronous second NSCLC. Repeated anatomical (reanatomical) resection was defined as a metachronous anatomical surgery for secondary NSCLC after ipsilateral primary major lung resection for NSCLC. Operative morbidity or other clinicopathologic factors were analyzed by a multivariable model. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven (74%) patients were diagnosed as second primary cases. The 3-year OS after metachronous surgery for ipsilateral second NSCLC was 80.1%, and that of reanatomical resection was equivalent to the other procedures (reanatomical: 81.8%, others: 78.2%, P = .816), whereas reanatomical resection (n = 56) was a significant predictor of postoperative severe morbidity after ipsilateral second pulmonary resection (P = .036) that was found in 23 (41%) patients. When this procedure was classified into 2 groups, ie, completion pneumonectomy (CP; n = 26) and other reanatomical resection to avoid CP (non-CP; n = 32), non-CP was significant on the right side (P = .011), whereas intrapericardial procedure was employed frequently for both (CP: 85%, non-CP: 47%). In contrast, the oncologic outcome (3-year OS; 75.8% vs 87.1%, P = .881) and several surgical outcomes including morbidities were similar between CP and non-CP.

CONCLUSIONS

Reanatomical pulmonary resection showed acceptable oncologic outcomes for metachronous ipsilateral second NSCLC. The non-CP procedure was technically challenging; however, both oncologic and surgical results were feasible compared with the CP. This procedure might be a promising novel strategy for properly selected ipsilateral second NSCLC.

The rates of second lung cancers and the survival of surgically-resected second primary lung cancers in patients undergoing resection of an initial primary lung cancer

BACKGROUND

The Lung Cancer Screening Trial demonstrated improved overall survival (OS) and lung cancer specific survival (LCSS), likely due to finding early-stage NSCLC. The purpose of our investigation is to evaluate whether long-term surveillance strategies (4+ years after surgical resection of the initial lung cancer(1LC)) would be beneficial in NSCLC patients by assessing the rates of second lung cancers(2LC) and the OS/LCSS in patients undergoing definitive surgery in 1LC as compared to 2LC (>48 months after 1LC) populations.

METHODS

SEER13/18 database was reviewed for patients during 1998-2013. Log-rank tests were used to determine the OS/LCSS differences between the 1LC and 2LC in the entire surgical group(EG) and in those having an early-stage resectable tumors (ESR, tumors <4 cm, node negative). Joinpoint analysis was used to determine rates of second cancers 4-10 year after 1LC using SEER-9 during years 1985-2014.

RESULTS

The rate of 2LCs was significantly less than all other second cancers until 2001 when the incidence of 2LCs increased sharply and became significantly greater than all other second cancers in females starting in year 2005 and in men starting in year 2010. OS/LCSS, adjusted for propensity score by using inverse probability weighting, demonstrated similar OS, but worse LCSS for 2LCs in the EG, but similar OS/LCSSs in the ESR group.

CONCLUSION

Because the rate of 2LCs are increasing and because the OS/LCSS of the 1LC and 2LC are similar in early-stage lesions, we feel that continued surveillance of patients in order to find early-stage disease may be beneficial.

Life-long follow-up of second primary lung and extra-pulmonary cancer in lung cancer patients is needed

Background: Lung cancer (LC) patients are at high risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC). This study aimed to explore the risk factors associated with SPC and provide an individualized risk prediction model for LC patients. Methods: Initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2011 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A Fine-Gray multivariate competing-risk model was used to estimate the risk of SPC, and the model was assessed regarding discrimination and calibration. A nomogram was designed for clinical convenience to predict the 3-, 5-, and 10- year probabilities of developing SPCs. Results: A total of 142,491 IPLC patients were considered in this study and 14,374(10.01%) developed SPC within a maximum study period of approximately 19 years. Seven independent prognostic factors were identified according to the competing-risk model, and the SEER summary stage and surgery were the strongest predictors. The model was well calibrated and had good discrimination ability(C-index = 0.746). Conclusions: LC survivors had an increased risk of SPC and factors associated with good prognosis often predicted SPC. Consideration should be given to increasing the duration of routine follow-up even after 10 years of initial diagnosis for those at the highest risk and site-specific follow-up strategy is also required.

Comprehensive analysis of autophagy-related prognostic genes in breast cancer

Accumulating evidence revealed that autophagy played vital roles in breast cancer (BC) progression. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of autophagy-related genes (ARGs) and develop a ARG-based model to evaluate 5-year overall survival (OS) in BC patients. We acquired ARG expression profiling in a large BC cohort (N = 1007) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The correlation between ARGs and OS was confirmed by the LASSO and Cox regression analyses. A predictive model was established based on independent prognostic variables. Thus, time-dependent receiver operating curve (ROC), calibration plot, decision curve and subgroup analysis were conducted to determine the predictive performance of ARG-based model. Four ARGs (ATG4A, IFNG, NRG1 and SERPINA1) were identified using the LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A ARG-based model was constructed based on the four ARGs and two clinicopathological risk factors (age and TNM stage), dividing patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The 5-year OS of patients in the low-risk group was higher than that in the high-risk group (P < 0.0001). Time-dependent ROC at 5 years indicated that the four ARG-based tool had better prognostic accuracy than TNM stage in the training cohort (AUC: 0.731 vs 0.640, P < 0.01) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.804 vs 0.671, P < 0.01). The mutation frequencies of the four ARGs (ATG4A, IFNG, NRG1 and SERPINA1) were 0.9%, 2.8%, 8% and 1.3%, respectively. We built and verified a novel four ARG-based nomogram, a credible approach to predict 5-year OS in BC, which can assist oncologists in determining effective therapeutic strategies.