Ordinal vs dichotomous analyses of modified Rankin Scale, 5-year outcome, and cost of stroke

Machine learning for early dynamic prediction of functional outcome after stroke

BACKGROUND

Prediction of outcome after stroke is critical for treatment planning and resource allocation but is complicated by fluctuations during the first days after onset. We propose a machine learning model that can provide hourly predictions based on the integration of continuous variables acquired within 72 h of hospital admission.

METHODS

We analyzed 2492 admissions for ischemic stroke in the Geneva University Hospital from 01.01.2018 to 31.12.2021, amounting to 2'131'752 unique data points. We developed a transformer model that continuously included clinical, physiological, imaging, and biological data recorded within 72 h of admission. This model was trained to generate hourly predictions of mortality and morbidity. Shapley additive explanations were used to identify the most relevant predictors to explain outcomes for each patient. The MIMIC-III database was used for external validation.

RESULTS

Our transformer model predicts mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.830 (95% CI 0.763-0.885) on admission, reaching 0.893 (95% CI 0.839-0.933) 72 h later for a 3-month outcome. Validated in an independent cohort, it outperforms all static models. Based on their mean explanatory weights, the top predictors included continuous clinical evaluation, baseline patient characteristics, timing from admission to acute treatment, and markers of inflammation and organ dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of our transformer model demonstrates the potential of machine learning models integrating clinical, physiological, imaging, and biological variables over time after stroke. The clinical applicability of our model is further strengthened by access to hourly updated predictions along with accompanying explanations.

The effect of frailty on mortality and functional outcomes in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Limited data in patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH) showed that frailty was associated with mortality; however, there was insufficient data on functional outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the effect of frailty on overall mortality and 90-day functional outcomes in SICH.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of 1223 patients diagnosed with SICH from January 2014 to December 2020. Frailty was defined as a clinical frailty scale (CFS) score of 4-9. Binary cut-offs were defined using receiver operating curve analysis. 90-day poor functional outcomes (PFO) were defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≥3, and utility-weighted mRS (UW-mRS) were based on previous validated studies respectively. Regression analyses were conducted to investigate the association between frailty and outcomes. Confounders adjusted for included demographics, cardiovascular risk factors and haematoma characteristics.

RESULTS

1091 patients met the inclusion criterion. 167 (15.3 %) had 30-day mortality and 730 (66.9 %) had 90-day PFO. Frailty was significantly associated with lower overall survival (HR: 1.54; 95 % CI: 1.11-2.14, p=0.010), 90-day PFO (OR: 1.90; 95 % CI: 1.32-2.74; p<0.001) and poorer UW-mRS (β: -0.06; 95 % CI: (-0.08 to -0.04); p<0.001) even after adjusting for confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty was significantly associated with greater mortality and PFO after incident SICH, even after adjusting for a priori confounders. Frail male individuals may be predisposed to poorer outcomes from higher prevalence of cortical atrophy. The use of CFS in younger individuals may aid management by predicting outcomes after incident SICH. Identifying frail individuals with incident SICH could aid in decision-making and the surgical management of SICH.

Contemporary Statistics of Acute Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack in 2021: Insights From the CRCS-K-NIH Registry

This report presents the latest statistics on the stroke population in South Korea, sourced from the Clinical Research Collaborations for Stroke in Korea-National Institute for Health (CRCS-K-NIH), a comprehensive, nationwide, multicenter stroke registry. The Korean cohort, unlike western populations, shows a male-to-female ratio of 1.5, attributed to lower risk factors in Korean women. The average ages for men and women are 67 and 73 years, respectively. Hypertension is the most common risk factor (67%), consistent with global trends, but there is a higher prevalence of diabetes (35%) and smoking (21%). The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (19%) is lower than in western populations, suggesting effective prevention strategies in the general population. A high incidence of large artery atherosclerosis (38%) is observed, likely due to prevalent intracranial arterial disease in East Asians and advanced imaging techniques. There has been a decrease in intravenous thrombolysis rates, from 12% in 2017-2019 to 10% in 2021, with no improvements in door-to-needle and door-to-puncture times, worsened by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the use of aspirin plus clopidogrel for non-cardioembolic stroke and direct oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation is well-established, the application of direct oral anticoagulants for non-atrial fibrillation cardioembolic strokes in the acute phase requires further research. The incidence of early neurological deterioration (13%) and the cumulative incidence of recurrent stroke at 3 months (3%) align with global figures. Favorable outcomes at 3 months (63%) are comparable internationally, yet the lack of improvement in dependency at 3 months highlights the need for advancements in acute stroke care.

Collateral-based selection for endovascular treatment of acute ischaemic stroke in the late window (MR CLEAN-LATE): 2-year follow-up of a phase 3, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The MR CLEAN-LATE trial provided evidence for the safety and efficacy of endovascular treatment for acute ischaemic stroke within the late window (after 6-24 h) in patients who were preselected based on the presence of collateral flow on CT angiography. We aimed to evaluate clinical outcomes 2 years after randomisation.

METHODS

MR CLEAN-LATE was a phase 3, multicentre, open-label, blinded-endpoint, randomised controlled trial conducted at 18 stroke intervention centres in the Netherlands. If endovascular treatment could be initiated within 6-24 h of symptom onset or last seen well, patients (aged 18 years or older) with an acute ischaemic stroke due to a large vessel occlusion in the anterior circulation and at least some collateral flow in the affected middle cerebral artery territory on CT angiography were randomly assigned (1:1) to either endovascular treatment with best medical treatment (endovascular treatment group) or best medical treatment alone (control group). Web-based randomisation, stratified by centre, was performed with the use of permuted blocks (block size eight to 20). The researchers who collected clinical outcomes and analysed the results were masked to treatment allocation; treating physicians, local investigators, and patients were aware of the received treatment. The primary outcome of MR CLEAN-LATE was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days after randomisation. For this 2-year prespecified analysis, the primary outcome was mRS score at 2 years (minus 3 months to plus 6 months). Primary and safety analyses were performed based on the modified intention-to-treat principle, and included patients who provided (deferred) consent or died before consent could be obtained. Missing data were handled with multiple imputation by chained equations. The trial is completed and is registered at ISRCTN, ISRCTN19922220.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 2, 2018, and Jan 27, 2022, 535 patients were randomly assigned in the MR CLEAN-LATE trial, of whom 502 (94%) gave deferred consent and comprised the modified intention-to-treat population (255 in the endovascular treatment group and 247 in the control group). 261 (52%) patients were female and 241 (48%) were male. Data for mRS score at 2 years were available for 226 (89%) patients in the endovascular treatment group and for 202 (82%) patients in the control group. The median mRS score at 2 years was 4 (IQR 2-6) in the endovascular treatment group and 6 (2-6) in the control group. The endovascular treatment group demonstrated a shift towards better functional outcomes on the mRS (adjusted common odds ratio 1·41 [95% CI 1·00-1·99]; p=0·049). All-cause mortality at 2 years was 34% (87 of 255) in the endovascular treatment group and 41% (101 of 247) in the control group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·81 [95% CI 0·60-1·08]; p=0·15). Major vascular events (ie, transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and cardiac events) were reported between 90 days and 2 years in 23 patients in the endovascular treatment group and 13 patients in the control group.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that the effectiveness of late-window (after 6-24 h) endovascular treatment in improving clinical outcomes is sustained for up to 2 years in a population preselected based on the presence of collateral flow on CT angiography. This finding might be important for prompting further evaluations of cost-effectiveness, health-care policy development, and clinical decision making.

FUNDING

The Dutch Organization for Health Research and Health Innovation (ZonMW), Collaboration for New Treatments of Acute Stroke Consortium, Dutch Heart Foundation, Stryker, Medtronic, Cerenovus, Health Holland Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, and the Netherlands Brain Foundation.

Role of Stroke Scales and Scores in Cerebrovascular Disease

This article provides a comprehensive review of widely utilized stroke scales in both routine clinical settings and research. These scales are crucial for planning treatment, predicting outcomes, and helping stroke patients recover. They also play a pivotal role in planning, executing, and comprehending stroke clinical trials. Each scale presents distinct advantages and limitations, and the authors explore these aspects within the article. The authors' intention is to provide the reader with practical insights for a clear understanding of these scales, and their effective use in their clinical practice.

Prompt closure versus gradual weaning of external ventricular drain for hydrocephalus following aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a statistical analysis plan for the DRAIN randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Insertion of an external ventricular drain (EVD) is a first-line treatment of acute hydrocephalus caused by aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). Once the patient is clinically stable, the EVD is either removed or replaced by a permanent internal shunt. The optimal strategy for cessation of the EVD is unknown. Prompt closure carries a risk of acute hydrocephalus or redundant shunt implantations, whereas gradual weaning may increase the risk of EVD-related infections.

METHODS

DRAIN (Danish RAndomised Trial of External Ventricular Drainage Cessation IN Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Haemorrhage) is an international multicentre randomised clinical trial comparing prompt closure versus gradual weaning of the EVD after aSAH. The primary outcome is a composite of VP-shunt implantation, all-cause mortality, or EVD-related infection. Secondary outcomes are serious adverse events excluding mortality and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L). Exploratory outcomes are modified Rankin Scale, Fatigue Severity Scale, Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended, and length of stay in the neurointensive care unit and hospital. Outcome assessment will be performed 6 months after ictus. Based on the sample size calculation (event proportion 80% in the gradual weaning group, relative risk reduction 20%, alpha 5%, power 80%), 122 participants are required in each intervention group. Outcome assessment for the primary outcome, statistical analyses, and conclusion drawing will be blinded. Two independent statistical analyses and reports will be tracked using a version control system, and both will be published. Based on the final statistical report, the blinded steering group will formulate two abstracts.

CONCLUSION

We present a pre-defined statistical analysis plan for the randomised DRAIN trial, which limits bias, p-hacking, and data-driven interpretations. This statistical analysis plan is accompanied by tables with simulated data, which increases transparency and reproducibility.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03948256. Registered on May 13, 2019.

The extracellular-to-total body water ratio reflects improvement in the activities of daily living in patients who experienced acute stroke

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relationship between bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) parameters, including the extracellular water-to-total body water ratio (ECW/TBW), and the activities of daily living (ADL) improvement, in patients who experienced acute stroke.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 307 patients (mean age, 72 years; 39 % female) who experienced acute stroke and were admitted to the stroke unit of the Nippon Medical School Hospital (Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan) between April 2021 and March 2022. The Functional Independence Measure (FIM) was assessed at initial rehabilitation and discharge, and FIM effectiveness was calculated as ADL improvement in the participating acute care hospitals. BIA markers included the skeletal muscle mass index (SMI), phase angle (PhA), and ECW/TBW. Multiple linear regression models were used to estimate the relationship between the FIM effectiveness and each BIA marker.

RESULTS

The mean (±SD) FIM effectiveness was 0.45 ± 0.36. The proportions of low SMI (male, <7.0 kg/m2; female, <5.7 kg/m2) and low PhA (male <5.36 degrees, female <3.85 degrees), were 48.9 % and 43.3 %, respectively. In addition, the proportions of of low (<0.36), normal (0.36-0.40), and high (>0.4) ECW/TBW ratios were 1.3 %, 78.5 %, and 20.2 %, respectively. After adjustments for demographic and clinical variables, low PhA, low ECW/TBW, and high ECW/TBW were all significantly associated with FIM effectiveness (P < 0.05), with β coefficients of -0.126, -0.089, and -0.117, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Low and High ECW/TBW and low PhA levels were negatively correlated with improvements in ADL. The ECW/TBW ratio may be an additional indicator of rehabilitation trainability in patients who experience acute stroke.

Outcomes and safety of endovascular treatment from 6 to 24 hours in patients with a pre-stroke moderate disability (mRS 3): a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Approximately 30% of patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion have pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores ≥2. We aimed to investigate the safety and outcomes of endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients with AIS with moderate pre-stroke disability (mRS score 3) in an extended time frame (ie, 6-24 hours from the last time known well).

METHODS

Data were collected from five centers in Europe and the USA from January 2018 to January 2023 and included 180 patients who underwent EVT in an extended time frame. Patients were divided into two groups of 90 each (Group 1: pre-mRS 0-2; Group 2: pre-mRS 3; 71% women, mean age 80.3±11.9 years). Primary outcomes were: (1) 3-month good clinical outcome (Group 1: mRS 0-2, Group 2: mRS 0-3) and ΔmRS; (2) any hemorrhagic transformation (HT); and (3) symptomatic HT. Secondary outcomes were successful and complete recanalization after EVT and 3-month mortality.

RESULTS

No between-group differences were found in the 3-month good clinical outcome (26.6% vs 25.5%, P=0.974), any HT (26.6% vs 22%, P=0.733), and symptomatic HT (8.9 vs 4.4%, P=0.232). Unexpectedly, ΔmRS was significantly smaller in Group 2 compared with Group 1 (1.64±1.61 vs 2.97±1.69, P<0.001). No between-group differences were found in secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Patients with pre-stroke mRS 3 are likely to have similar outcomes after EVT in the extended time frame to those with pre-stroke mRS 0-2, with no difference in safety.

Developing machine learning models to predict multi-class functional outcomes and death three months after stroke in Sweden

Globally, stroke is the third-leading cause of mortality and disability combined, and one of the costliest diseases in society. More accurate predictions of stroke outcomes can guide healthcare organizations in allocating appropriate resources to improve care and reduce both the economic and social burden of the disease. We aim to develop and evaluate the performance and explainability of three supervised machine learning models and the traditional multinomial logistic regression (mLR) in predicting functional dependence and death three months after stroke, using routinely-collected data. This prognostic study included adult patients, registered in the Swedish Stroke Registry (Riksstroke) from 2015 to 2020. Riksstroke contains information on stroke care and outcomes among patients treated in hospitals in Sweden. Prognostic factors (features) included demographic characteristics, pre-stroke functional status, cardiovascular risk factors, medications, acute care, stroke type, and severity. The outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale at three months after stroke (a scale of 0-2 indicates independent, 3-5 dependent, and 6 dead). Outcome prediction models included support vector machines, artificial neural networks (ANN), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and mLR. The models were trained and evaluated on 75% and 25% of the dataset, respectively. Model predictions were explained using SHAP values. The study included 102,135 patients (85.8% ischemic stroke, 53.3% male, mean age 75.8 years, and median NIHSS of 3). All models demonstrated similar overall accuracy (69%-70%). The ANN and XGBoost models performed significantly better than the mLR in classifying dependence with F1-scores of 0.603 (95% CI; 0.594-0.611) and 0.577 (95% CI; 0.568-0.586), versus 0.544 (95% CI; 0.545-0.563) for the mLR model. The factors that contributed most to the predictions were expectedly similar in the models, based on clinical knowledge. Our ANN and XGBoost models showed a modest improvement in prediction performance and explainability compared to mLR using routinely-collected data. Their improved ability to predict functional dependence may be of particular importance for the planning and organization of acute stroke care and rehabilitation.

Sex-Related Differences in Mortality, Delayed Cerebral Ischemia, and Functional Outcomes in Patients with Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background/Objective: Sex-related differences among patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and their potential clinical implications have been insufficiently investigated. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: Sex-specific differences in patients with aSAH, including mortality, delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), and functional outcomes were assessed. The functional outcome was dichotomized into favorable or unfavorable based on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), and Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE). Results: Overall, 2823 studies were identified in EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed, and by manual search on 14 February 2024. After an initial assessment, 74 studies were included in the meta-analysis. In the analysis of mortality, including 18,534 aSAH patients, no statistically significant differences could be detected (risk ratio (RR) 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90-1.09; p = 0.91). In contrast, the risk analysis for DCI, including 23,864 aSAH patients, showed an 11% relative risk reduction in DCI in males versus females (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.97; p = 0.01). The functional outcome analysis (favorable vs. unfavorable), including 7739 aSAH patients, showed a tendency towards better functional outcomes in men than women; however, this did not reach statistical significance (RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.98-1.07; p = 0.34). Conclusions: In conclusion, the available data suggest that sex/gender may play a significant role in the risk of DCI in patients with aSAH, emphasizing the need for sex-specific management strategies.

Factors Associated With Premature Termination of Hyperacute Stroke Trials: A Review

BACKGROUND

We performed a review of acute stroke trials to determine features associated with premature termination of trial enrollment, defined by the authors as not meeting preplanned sample size.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE was searched for randomized clinical stroke trials published in 9 major clinical journals between 2013 and 2022. We included randomized clinical trials that were phase 2 or 3 with a preplanned sample size ≥100 and a time-to-treatment within 24 hours of onset for transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage. Data were abstracted on trial features including trial design, inclusion criteria, imaging, location and number of sites, masking, treatment complexity, control group (standard therapy, placebo), industry involvement, and preplanned stopping rules (futility and efficacy). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select the most important factors associated with premature termination; then, a multivariable logistic regression was fit including only the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator selected variables. Of 1475 studies assessed, 98 trials met eligibility criteria. Forty-five (46%) trials were prematurely terminated, of which 27% were stopped for benefit/efficacy, 20% for lack of money/slow enrollment, 18% for futility, 16% for newly available evidence, 17% for other reasons, and 4% due to harm. Complex trials (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.76 [95% CI, 1.13-7.49]), presence of a futility rule (aOR, 4.43 [95% CI, 1.62-17.91]), and exclusion of prestroke dependency (none/slight disability only; aOR, 2.19 [95% CI, 0.84-6.72] versus dependency allowed) were identified as the strongest predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of acute stroke trials were terminated prematurely. Broadening inclusion criteria and simplifying trial design may decrease the likelihood of unplanned termination, whereas planned futility analyses may appropriately terminate trials early, saving money and resources.

Statistical analyses of ordinal outcomes in randomised controlled trials: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) aim to estimate the causal effect of one or more interventions relative to a control. One type of outcome that can be of interest in an RCT is an ordinal outcome, which is useful to answer clinical questions regarding complex and evolving patient states. The target parameter of interest for an ordinal outcome depends on the research question and the assumptions the analyst is willing to make. This review aimed to provide an overview of how ordinal outcomes have been used and analysed in RCTs.

METHODS

The review included RCTs with an ordinal primary or secondary outcome published between 2017 and 2022 in four highly ranked medical journals (the British Medical Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, and the Journal of the American Medical Association) identified through PubMed. Details regarding the study setting, design, the target parameter, and statistical methods used to analyse the ordinal outcome were extracted.

RESULTS

The search identified 309 studies, of which 144 were eligible for inclusion. The most used target parameter was an odds ratio, reported in 78 (54%) studies. The ordinal outcome was dichotomised for analysis in 47 ( 33 % ) studies, and the most common statistical model used to analyse the ordinal outcome on the full ordinal scale was the proportional odds model (64 [ 44 % ] studies). Notably, 86 (60%) studies did not explicitly check or describe the robustness of the assumptions for the statistical method(s) used.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this review indicate that in RCTs that use an ordinal outcome, there is variation in the target parameter and the analytical approaches used, with many dichotomising the ordinal outcome. Few studies provided assurance regarding the appropriateness of the assumptions and methods used to analyse the ordinal outcome. More guidance is needed to improve the transparent reporting of the analysis of ordinal outcomes in future trials.

Combination therapy of Epidermal Growth Factor and Growth Hormone-Releasing Hexapeptide in acute ischemic stroke: a phase I/II non-blinded, randomized clinical trial

Objective

This study tested the hypothesis that a neuroprotective combined therapy based on epidermal growth factor (EGF) and growth hormone-releasing hexapeptide (GHRP6) could be safe for acute ischemic stroke patients, admitting up to 30% of serious adverse events (SAE) with proven causality.

Methods

A multi-centric, randomized, open-label, controlled, phase I-II clinical trial with parallel groups was conducted (July 2017 to January 2018). Patients aged 18-80 years with a computed tomography-confirmed ischemic stroke and less than 12 h from the onset of symptoms were randomly assigned to the study groups I (75 μg rEGF + 3.5 mg GHRP6 i.v., n=10), II (75 μg rEGF + 5 mg GHRP6 i.v., n=10), or III (standard care control, n=16). Combined therapy was given BID for 7 days. The primary endpoint was safety over 6 months. Secondary endpoints included neurological (NIHSS) and functional [Barthel index and modified Rankin scale (mRS)] outcomes.

Results

The study population had a mean age of 66 ± 11 years, with 21 men (58.3%), a baseline median NIHSS score of 9 (95% CI: 8-11), and a mean time to treatment of 7.3 ± 2.8 h. Analyses were conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. SAEs were reported in 9 of 16 (56.2%) patients in the control group, 3 of 10 (30%) patients in Group I (odds ratio (OR): 0.33; 95% CI: 0.06-1.78), and 2 of 10 (20%) patients in Group II (OR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.03-1.22); only two events in one patient in Group I were attributed to the intervention treatment. Compliance with the study hypothesis was greater than 0.90 in each group. Patients treated with EGF + GHRP6 had a favorable neurological and functional evolution at both 90 and 180 days, as evidenced by the inferential analysis of NIHSS, Barthel, and mRS and by their moderate to strong effect size. At 6 months, proportion analysis evidenced a higher survival rate for patients treated with the combined therapy. Ancillary analysis including merged treated groups and utility-weighted mRS also showed a benefit of this combined therapy.

Conclusion

EGF + GHRP6 therapy was safe. The functional benefits of treatment in this study supported a Phase III study.

Clinical Trial Registration

RPCEC00000214 of the Cuban Public Registry of Clinical Trials, Unique identifier: IG/CIGB-845I/IC/1601.

Doctors and nurses subjective predictions of 6-month outcome compared to actual 6-month outcome for adult patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) in neurocritical care: An observational study

Background

Acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage is a devastating form of stroke. Prognostication after ICH may be influenced by clinicians' subjective opinions.

Purpose

To evaluate subjective predictions of 6-month outcome by clinicians' for ICH patients in a neurocritical care using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and compare these to actual 6-month outcome.

Method

We included clinicians' predictions of 6-month outcome in the first 48 h for 52 adults with ICH and compared to actual 6-month outcome using descriptive statistics and multilevel binomial logistic regression.

Results

35/52 patients (66%) had a poor 6-month outcome (mRS 4-6); 19/52 (36%) had died. 324 predictions were included. For good (mRS 0-3) versus poor (mRS 4-6), outcome, accuracy of predictions was 68% and exact agreement 29%. mRS 6 and mRS 4 received the most correct predictions. Comparing job roles, predictions of death were underestimated, by doctors (12%) and nurses (13%) compared with actual mortality (36%). Predictions of vital status showed no significant difference between doctors and nurses: OR = 1.24 {CI; 0.50-3.05}; (p = 0.64) or good versus poor outcome: OR = 1.65 {CI; 0.98-2.79}; (p = 0.06). When predicted and actual 6-month outcome were compared, job role did not significantly relate to correct predictions of good versus poor outcome: OR = 1.13 {CI;0.67-1.90}; (p = 0.65) or for vital status: OR = 1.11 {CI; 0.47-2.61}; p = 0.81).

Conclusions

Early prognostication is challenging. Doctors and nurses were most likely to correctly predict poor outcome but tended to err on the side of optimism for mortality, suggesting an absence of clinical nihilism in relation to ICH.

Identification of Anterior Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke During the Emergency Call: Protocol for a Controlled, Nonrandomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Endovascular thrombectomy (ET), combined with intravenous thrombolysis if possible, is an effective treatment option for patients with stroke who have confirmed anterior large vessel occlusion (aLVO). However, ET is mainly limited to comprehensive stroke centers (CSCs), resulting in a lack of ET capacity in remote, sparsely populated areas. Most stroke networks use the "Drip and Ship" or "Mothership" strategy, resulting in either delayed ET or intravenous thrombolysis, respectively.

OBJECTIVE

This study protocol introduces the Leitstellen-Basierte Erkennung von Schlaganfall-Patienten für eine Thrombektomie und daraufhin abgestimmte Optimierung der Rettungskette (LESTOR) strategy, developed to optimize the preclinical part of the stroke chain of survival to improve the clinical outcome of patients with suspected aLVO stroke. This involves refining the dispatch strategy for identifying patients with acute aLVO stroke using a phone-based aLVO query. This includes dispatching emergency physicians and emergency medical services (EMS) to urban emergency sites, as well as dispatching helicopter EMS to remote areas. If a highly suspected aLVO is identified after a standardized aLVO score evaluation during a structured examination at the emergency scene, prompt transport to a CSC should be prioritized.

METHODS

The LESTOR study is a controlled, nonrandomized study implementing the LESTOR strategy, with a stepped-wedge, cluster trial design in 6 districts in southwest Germany. In an interprofessional, iterative approach, an aLVO query or dispatch protocol intended for use by dispatchers, followed by a coordinated aLVO examination score for use by EMS, is being developed, evaluated, and pretested in a simulation study. After the training of all participating health care professionals with the corresponding final aLVO query, the LESTOR strategy is being implemented stepwise. Patients otherwise receive usual stroke care in both the control and intervention groups. The primary outcome is the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days in patients with stroke receiving endovascular treatment. We will use a generalized linear mixed model for data analysis. This study is accompanied by a cost-effectiveness analysis and a qualitative process evaluation.

RESULTS

This paper describes and discusses the protocol for this controlled, nonrandomized LESTOR study. Enrollment was completed in June 2023. Data analysis is ongoing and the first results are expected to be submitted for publication in 2024. The project started in April 2020 and will end in February 2024.

CONCLUSIONS

We expect that the intervention will improve the clinical outcome of patients with aLVO stroke, especially outside the catchment areas of CSCs. The results of the accompanying process evaluation and the cost-effectiveness analysis will provide further insights into the implementation process and allow for a better interpretation of the results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00022152; https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00022152.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/51683.

Clipping versus coiling: A critical re-examination of a decades old controversy

BACKGROUND

Two major studies, The International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial and the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial, compare the long-term outcomes of clipping and coiling. Although these demonstrated coiling's initial benefits, rebleeding and retreatment rates as well as converging patient outcomes sparked controversy regarding its durability. This article will critically examine the available evidence for and against clipping and coiling of intracranial aneurysms. Critics of endovascular treatment state that the initial benefit seen with endovascular coiling decreases over the duration of follow-up and eventually functional outcomes of both treatment modalities are similar. Combined with the increased rate of retreatment and rebleeding, these trials reveal that coiling is not as durable and not as effective as a long-term treatment compared to clipping. Also, due to the cost of devices following endovascular treatment and prolonged hospitalization following clipping, the financial burden has been considered controversial.

SUMMARY/KEY MESSAGES

Short-term outcomes reveal better morbidity and mortality outcomes following coiling. Despite the higher rates of retreatment and rebleeding with coiling, there was no significant change in functional outcomes following retreatment. Furthermore, examining more recent trials reveals a decreased rate of recurrence and rebleeding with improved technology and expertise. Functional outcomes deteriorate for both cohorts over time while recent results revealed improved long-term cognitive outcomes and levels of health-related quality of life after coiling in comparison to clipping. The expense of longer hospital stays following clipping must be balanced against the expense of endovascular devices in coiling.

Minimal Clinically Important Difference of Scales Reported in Stroke Trials: A Review

There is a growing awareness of the significance of using minimum clinically important differences (MCIDs) in stroke research. An MCID is the smallest change in an outcome measure that is considered clinically meaningful. This review is the first to provide a comprehensive summary of various scales and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) used in stroke research and their MCID values reported in the literature, including a concise overview of the concept of and methods for determining MCIDs in stroke research. Despite the controversies and limitations surrounding the estimation of MCIDs, their importance in modern clinical trials cannot be overstated. Anchor-based and distribution-based methods are recommended for estimating MCIDs, with patient self-evaluation being a crucial component in capturing the patient's perspective on their health. A combination of methods can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the clinical relevance of treatment effects, and incorporating the patient's perspective can enhance the care of stroke patients.

Endovascular Thrombectomy With or Without Thrombolysis for Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

To this date, whether to administer intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) prior to endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for stroke patients still stirs some debate. We aimed to systematically update the evidence from randomized trials comparing EVT alone vs EVT with bridging IVT.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing EVT with or without IVT in patients presenting with stroke secondary to a large vessel occlusion. We conducted meta-analyses using random-effects models to compare functional independence, mortality, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), between EVT and EVT with IVT. We assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool and certainty of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach.

Results

Of 11,111 citations, we included 6 studies with a total of 2336 participants. We found low-certainty evidence of possibly a small decrease in the proportion of patients with functional independence (risk difference [RD] -2.0%, 95% CI -5.9% to 2.0%), low-certainty evidence that there is possibly a small increase in mortality (RD 1.0%, 95% CI -2.2% to 4.7%), and moderate-certainty evidence that there is probably a decrease in sICH (RD -1.0%, 95% CI -1.6% to .7%) for patients with EVT alone compared to EVT plus IVT, respectively.

Conclusion

Low-certainty evidence shows that there is possibly a small decrease in functional independence, low-certainty evidence shows that there is possibly a small increase in mortality, and moderate-certainty evidence that there is probably a decrease in sICH for patients with EVT alone compared to EVT plus IVT.

Imperfect Patients: Disparities in Treatment of Stroke Patients with Premorbid Disability

BACKGROUND

Despite the high proportion of stroke patients with a pre-existing impairment, patients with disabilities are often excluded from stroke treatment trials. Trials are designed for "perfect patients": patients who are functionally independent and thus generally younger with fewer comorbidities; ironically, such patients are less likely to experience stroke than those with premorbid disability. Exclusionary practices in trials may translate into disparities in stroke care in practice. Through a review of literature, our purpose is to illuminate how people with disabilities are treated across the care continuum following a stroke.

METHODS

We completed a qualitative systematized review of articles pertaining to the care of patients with premorbid disability and stroke and their outcomes. Using a critical disability studies' theoretical lens, we analyzed inequity across the stroke care continuum.

FINDINGS

Among 24 included studies, we found evidence that people with disabilities did not receive equitable access to treatment ranging from being admitted to stroke units to receiving post-stroke rehabilitation. However, observational studies suggest that stroke therapies may be beneficial in selected patients with disabilities when measures of success are framed more achievable (e.g. return to pre-stroke status). This leaves us concerned about how people with pre-existing impairments might be structurally disabled within current systems of stroke care.

CONCLUSION

We use our critical disability studies' theoretical lens to argue that an intersectional approach to stroke treatment is much needed if we are to remedy structural inequities embedded throughout the care continuum.

Association Between Admission Ionized Calcium Level and Neurological Outcome of Patients with Isolated Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Pathophysiological processes following initial insult are complex and not fully understood. Ionized calcium (Ca++) is an essential cofactor in the coagulation cascade and platelet aggregation, and hypocalcemia may contribute to the progression of intracranial bleeding. On the other hand, Ca++ is an important mediator of cell damage after TBI and cellular hypocalcemia may have a neuroprotective effect after brain injury. We hypothesized that early hypocalcemia might have an adverse effect on the neurological outcome of patients suffering from isolated severe TBI. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between admission Ca++ level and the neurological outcome of these patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, single-center, cohort study of all patients admitted between January 2014 and December 2020 due to isolated severe TBI, which was defined as head abbreviated injury score ≥ 4 and an absence of severe (abbreviated injury score > 2) extracranial injuries. The primary outcome was a favorable neurological status at discharge, defined by a modified Rankin Scale of 0-2. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine whether admission hypocalcemia (Ca++  < 1.16 mmol L-1) is an independent predictor of neurological status at discharge.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 201 patients. Hypocalcemia was common among patients with isolated severe TBI (73.1%). Most of the patients had mild hypocalcemia (1 < Ca++  < 1.16 mmol L-1), and only 13 (6.5%) patients had Ca++  ≤ 1.00 mmol L-1. In the entire cohort, hypocalcemia was independently associated with higher rates of good neurological status at discharge (adjusted odds ratio of 3.03, 95% confidence interval 1.11-8.33, p = 0.03). In the subgroup of 81 patients with an admission Glasgow Coma Scale > 8, 52 (64.2%) had hypocalcemia. Good neurological status at discharge was recorded in 28 (53.8%) of hypocalcemic patients compared with 14 (17.2%) of those with normal Ca++ (p = 0.002). In multivariate analyses, hypocalcemia was independently associated with good neurological status at discharge (adjusted odds ratio of 6.67, 95% confidence interval 1.39-33.33, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that among patients with isolated severe TBI, mild admission hypocalcemia is associated with better neurological status at hospital discharge. The prognostic value of Ca++ may be greater among patients with admission Glasgow Coma Scale > 8. Trials are needed to investigate the role of hypocalcemia in brain injury.

Stroke lesion size - Still a useful biomarker for stroke severity and outcome in times of high-dimensional models

BACKGROUND

The volumetric size of a brain lesion is a frequently used stroke biomarker. It stands out among most imaging biomarkers for being a one-dimensional variable that is applicable in simple statistical models. In times of machine learning algorithms, the question arises of whether such a simple variable is still useful, or whether high-dimensional models on spatial lesion information are superior.

METHODS

We included 753 first-ever anterior circulation ischemic stroke patients (age 68.4±15.2 years; NIHSS at 24 h 4.4±5.1; modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3-months median[IQR] 1[0.75;3]) and traced lesions on diffusion-weighted MRI. In an out-of-sample model validation scheme, we predicted stroke severity as measured by NIHSS 24 h and functional stroke outcome as measured by mRS at 3 months either from spatial lesion features or lesion size.

RESULTS

For stroke severity, the best regression model based on lesion size performed significantly above chance (p < 0.0001) with R2 = 0.322, but models with spatial lesion features performed significantly better with R2 = 0.363 (t(752) = 2.889; p = 0.004). For stroke outcome, the best classification model based on lesion size again performed significantly above chance (p < 0.0001) with an accuracy of 62.8%, which was not different from the best model with spatial lesion features (62.6%, p = 0.80). With smaller training data sets of only 150 or 50 patients, the performance of high-dimensional models with spatial lesion features decreased up to the point of being equivalent or even inferior to models trained on lesion size. The combination of lesion size and spatial lesion features in one model did not improve predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Lesion size is a decent biomarker for stroke outcome and severity that is slightly inferior to spatial lesion features but is particularly suited in studies with small samples. When low-dimensional models are desired, lesion size provides a viable proxy biomarker for spatial lesion features, whereas high-precision prediction models in personalised prognostic medicine should operate with high-dimensional spatial imaging features in large samples.

Associations of Multimorbidity With Stroke Severity, Subtype, Premorbid Disability, and Early Mortality: Oxford Vascular Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients with multimorbidity are underrepresented in clinical trials. Inclusion in stroke trials is often limited by exclusion based on premorbid disability, concerns about worse poststroke outcomes in acute treatment trials, and a possibly increased proportion of hemorrhagic vs ischemic stroke in prevention trials. Multimorbidity is associated with an increased mortality after stroke, but it is unclear whether this is driven by an increased stroke severity or is confounded by particular stroke subtypes or premorbid disability. We aimed to determine the independent association of multimorbidity with stroke severity taking account of these main potential confounders.

METHODS

In a population-based incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2017), prestroke multimorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI]; unweighted/weighted) in all first-in-study strokes was related to postacute severity (≈24 hours; NIH Stroke Scale [NIHSS]), stroke subtype (hemorrhagic vs ischemic; Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment [TOAST]), and premorbid disability (modified Rankin scale [mRS] score ≥2) using age-adjusted/sex-adjusted logistic and linear regression models and to 90-day mortality using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Among 2,492 patients (mean/SD age = 74.5/13.9 years; 1,216/48.8% male; 2,160/86.7% ischemic strokes; mean/SD NIHSS = 5.7/7.1), 1,402 (56.2%) had at least 1 CCI comorbidity, and 700 (28.1%) had multimorbidity. Although multimorbidity was strongly related to premorbid mRS ≥2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per CCI comorbidity 1.42, 1.31-1.54, p < 0.001), and comorbidity burden was crudely associated with an increased severity of ischemic stroke (OR per comorbidity 1.12, 1.01-1.23 for NIHSS 5-9, p = 0.027; 1.15, 1.06-1.26 for NIHSS ≥10; p = 0.001), no association with severity remained after stratification by TOAST subtype (aOR 1.02, 0.90-1.14, p = 0.78 for NIHSS 5-9 vs 0-4; 0.99, 0.91-1.07, p = 0.75 for NIHSS ≥10 vs 0-4), or within any individual subtype. The proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage vs ischemic stroke was lower in patients with multimorbidity (aOR per comorbidity 0.80, 0.70-0.92, p < 0.001), and multimorbidity was only weakly associated with 90-day mortality after adjustment for age, sex, severity, and premorbid disability (adjusted hazard ratio per comorbidity 1.09, 1.04-1.14, p < 0.001). Results were unchanged using the weighted CCI.

DISCUSSION

Multimorbidity is common in patients with stroke and is strongly related to premorbid disability but is not independently associated with an increased ischemic stroke severity. Greater inclusion of patients with multimorbidity is unlikely therefore to undermine the effectiveness of interventions in clinical trials but would increase external validity.

Autonomic function may mediate the neuroprotection of remote ischemic postconditioning in stroke: A randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of remote ischemic postconditioning (RIPostC) on the prognosis of acute ischemic stroke(AIS) patients and investigate the mediating role of autonomic function in the neuroprotection of RIPostC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

132 AIS patients were randomized into two groups. Patients received four cycles of 5-min inflation to a pressure of 200 mmHg(i.e., RIPostC) or patients' diastolic BP(i.e., shame), followed by 5 min of deflation on healthy upper limbs once a day for 30 days. The main outcome was neurological outcome including the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and Barthel index(BI). The second outcome measure was autonomic function measured by heart rate variability(HRV).

RESULTS

Compared with the baseline, the post-intervention NIHSS score was significantly reduced in both groups (P<0.001). NIHSS score was significantly lower in the control group than intervention group at day 7.[RIPostC:3(1,5) versus shame:2(1,4); P=0.030]. mRS scored lower in the intervention group compared with the control group at day 90 follow-up(RIPostC:0.5±2.0 versus shame:1.0±2.0;P=0.016). The goodness-of-fit test revealed a significant difference between the generalized estimating equation model of mRS and BI scores of uncontrolled-HRV and controlled-HRV(P<0.05, both). The results of bootstrap revealed a complete mediation effect of HRV between group on mRS[indirect effect: -0.267 (LLCI = -0.549, ULCI = -0.048), the direct effect: -0.443 (LLCI = -0.831, ULCI = 0.118)].

CONCLUSION

This is the first human-based study providing evidence for a mediation role of autonomic function between RIpostC and prognosis in AIS patients. It indicated that RIPostC could improve the neurological outcome of AIS patients. Autonomic function may play a mediating role in this association.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The clinical trials registration number for this study is NCT02777099 (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier).

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular thrombectomy with alteplase versus endovascular thrombectomy alone for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion

BACKGROUND

Recent randomized trials have suggested that endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) alone may provide similar functional outcomes as the current standard of care, EVT combined with intravenous alteplase treatment, for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion. We conducted an economic evaluation of these 2 therapeutic options.

METHODS

We constructed a decision analytic model with a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients to assess the cost-effectiveness of EVT with intravenous alteplase treatment versus EVT alone for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion from both the societal and public health care payer perspectives. We used studies and data published in 2009-2021 for model inputs, and acquired cost data for Canada and China, representing high- and middle-income countries, respectively. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using a lifetime horizon and accounted for uncertainty using 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. All costs are reported in 2021 Canadian dollars.

RESULTS

In Canada, the difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained between EVT with alteplase and EVT alone was 0.10 from both the societal and health care payer perspectives. The difference in cost was $2847 from a societal perspective and $2767 from the payer perspective. In China, the difference in QALYs gained was 0.07 from both perspectives, and the difference in cost was $1550 from the societal perspective and $1607 from the payer perspective. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the distributions of modified Rankin Scale scores at 90 days after stroke were the most influential factor on ICERs. For Canada, compared to EVT alone, the probability that EVT with alteplase would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per QALY gained was 58.7% from a societal perspective and 58.4% from a payer perspective. The corresponding values for at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $47 185 (3 times the Chinese gross domestic product per capita in 2021) were 65.2% and 67.4%.

INTERPRETATION

For patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion eligible for immediate treatment with both EVT alone and EVT with intravenous alteplase treatment, it is uncertain whether EVT with alteplase is cost-effective compared to EVT alone in Canada and China.

Arachnoid granulations may be protective against the development of shunt dependent chronic hydrocephalus after aneurysm subarachnoid hemorrhage*

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Chronic hydrocephalus may develop as a sequela of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, requiring long-term cerebrospinal fluid shunting. Several clinical predictors of chronic hydrocephalus and shunt dependence have been proposed. However, no anatomical predictors have been identified.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed including 61 patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Clinical characteristics were noted for each patient including presentation World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade, modified Fischer grade, aneurysm characteristics, requirement for acute and chronic cerebrospinal fluid diversion, and 3-month modified Rankin scale. CT images were evaluated to determine the Evans' index and to enumerate the number of arachnoid granulations. Association between the clinical characteristics with ventriculoperitoneal shunt insertion and the 3-month modified Rankin scale were assessed.

RESULTS

The initial Evans' index was positively associated with mFisher grade and age, but not the number of arachnoid granulations. 16.4% patients required insertion of a ventriculoperitoneal shunt. The number of arachnoid granulations were a significant negative predictor of ventriculoperitoneal shunt insertion [OR: 0.251 (95% CI:0.073-0.862; p = 0.028)]. There was significant difference in the number of arachnoid granulations between those with and without ventriculoperitoneal shunt (p = 0.002). No patient with greater than 4 arachnoid granulations required a ventriculoperitoneal shunt, irrespective of severity of initial grade.

CONCLUSION

Arachnoid granulations may be protective against the development of shunt dependent chronic hydrocephalus after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. This is irrespective of presenting hemorrhage severity. This is a potentially novel radiologic biomarker and anatomic predictor of shunt dependence.

Endovascular treatment of acute ischemic stroke in patients with pre-morbid disability: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Trials of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) for acute stroke have excluded patients with pre-morbid disability. Observational studies may help inform consideration of EVT in this population. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and safety of EVT in patients with pre-morbid disability.

METHODS

According to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies describing outcomes in patients with pre-morbid disability (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 2-5), treated with EVT or medical management (MM). Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool outcomes including 90-day return to baseline mRS, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH), and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

We analyzed 14 studies of patients with pre-morbid disability (mRS 2-5, 1373 EVT and 253 MM). The rate of return to baseline mRS was 30.0% (95% CI 25.3% to 34.7%) in patients treated with EVT. Compared with medical therapy, EVT was associated with a higher likelihood of return to baseline mRS (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.04) and a trend towards lower mortality (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.02), with similar odds of sICH (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.49 to 2.08). In studies comparing patients with versus without pre-morbid disability treated with EVT, similar results were found except that pre-morbid disability, when defined more strictly as mRS 3-5, was associated with mortality (OR 3.49, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In eligible patients with pre-morbid disability, observational studies suggest that EVT carries a higher chance of return to baseline mRS compared with patients treated with MM or without pre-morbid disability, although with higher mortality than patients without pre-morbid disability. These findings argue against the routine exclusion of such patients from EVT and merit validation with randomized trials.

Can flat-detector CT after successful endovascular treatment predict long-term outcome in patients with large vessel occlusion? An Alberta Stroke Programme Early CT Score-based study

PURPOSE

Recent studies postulate a high prognostic value of the Alberta Stroke Programme Early CT Score (ASPECTS) applied on non-contrast whole-brain flat-detector CT (FDCT) after successful endovascular treatment (EVT). The aim of this study was the evaluation of long-term patient outcome after endovascular treatment using postinterventional FDCT.

METHODS

Using a local database (Stroke Research Consortium in Northern Bavaria, STAMINA), 517 patients with successful endovascular treatment (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (mTICI) ≥ 2B) due to acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) and large vessel occlusion (LVO) of the anterior circulation were recruited retrospectively. In all cases, non-contrast FDCT after EVT was analysed with special focus at ASPECTS. These results were correlated with the functional outcome in long-term (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) shift from pre-stroke to 90 days after discharge).

RESULTS

A significant difference in FDCT-ASPECTS compared to the subgroup of favourable vs. unfavourable outcome (Δ mRS) (median ASPECTS 10 (10-9) vs. median ASPECTS 9 (10-7); p = 0,001) could be demonstrated. Multivariable regression analysis revealed FDCT-ASPECTS (OR 0.234, 95% CI - 0.102-0.008, p = 0.022) along with the NHISS at admission (OR 0.169, 95% CI 0.003-0.018, p = 0.008) as independent factors for a favourable outcome. Cut-off point for a favourable outcome (Δ mRS) was identified at an ASPECTS ≥ 8 (sensitivity 90.6%, specificity 35%).

CONCLUSION

For patients with LVO and successful EVT, FDCT-ASPECTS was found to be highly reliable in predicting long-term outcome.

Impact of Very Small Aneurysm Size and Anterior Communicating Segment Location on Outcome after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Very small anterior communicating artery aneurysms (vsACoA) of <5 mm in size are detected in a considerable number of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Single-center studies report that vsACoA harbor particular risks when treated.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical and radiological outcome(s) of patients with aSAH diagnosed with vsACoA after aneurysm treatment and at discharge.

METHODS

Information on n = 1868 patients was collected in the Swiss Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Outcome Study registry between 2009 and 2014. The presence of a new focal neurological deficit at discharge, functional status (modified Rankin scale), mortality rates, and procedural complications (in-hospital rebleeding and presence of a new stroke on computed tomography) was assessed for vsACoA and compared with the results observed for aneurysms in other locations and with diameters of 5 to 25 mm.

RESULTS

This study analyzed n = 1258 patients with aSAH, n = 439 of which had a documented ruptured ACoA. ACoA location was found in 38% (n = 144/384) of all very small ruptured aneurysms. A higher in-hospital bleeding rate was found in vsACoA compared with non-ACoA locations (2.8 vs 2.1%), especially when endovascularly treated (2.1% vs 0.5%). In multivariate analysis, aneurysm size of 5 to 25 mm, and not ACoA location, was an independent risk factor for a new focal neurological deficit and a higher modified Rankin scale at discharge. Neither very small aneurysm size nor ACoA location was associated with higher mortality rates at discharge or the occurrence of a peri-interventional stroke.

CONCLUSION

Very small ruptured ACoA have a higher in-hospital rebleeding rate but are not associated with worse morbidity or mortality.

Clopidogrel with Aspirin versus Aspirin Alone following Intravenous Thrombolysis in Minor Stroke: A 1-Year Follow-Up Study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate the long-term effect of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) using clopidogrel plus aspirin versus aspirin monotherapy after intravenous thrombolysis on functional outcomes in patients with minor stroke.

METHODS

Patients with acute ischemic stroke with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤ 5 who received either DAPT or aspirin monotherapy following recombinant tissue plasminogen activator intravenous thrombolysis were studied. Data recorded between January 2017 and December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary efficacy outcome was functional improvement at 1 year, measured by a 1-point decrease across modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. Secondary outcomes included complete rehabilitation (mRS = 0), an excellent outcome (mRS = 0-1), and a favorable outcome (mRS = 0-2) at 1 year, as well as the rates of stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality within 1 year.

RESULTS

A total of 238 patients were included, and follow-up data were available for 205 patients (86.1%). The distribution of 1-year outcomes on the mRS favored DAPT over aspirin monotherapy (adjusted common odds ratio (OR), 2.19; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-4.28; p = 0.022). Patients who received DAPT, compared with those receiving aspirin alone, were more likely to achieve complete rehabilitation (adjusted OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.21-4.95; p = 0.013) at the 1-year follow-up. Additionally, the percentages of an excellent outcome and a favorable outcome did not differ, and the rates of stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality were comparable during the 1-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Clopidogrel with aspirin following intravenous thrombolysis was associated with improved functional outcome at the 1-year follow-up for patients with minor stroke, and it did not increase the stroke recurrence rate and mortality.

Made to measure—Selecting outcomes in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage research

There has been limited new high-level evidence generated to guide aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) management in the past decade. The choice of outcome measures used in aSAH clinical trials may be one of the factors hindering progress. In this narrative review we consider the current process for determining “what” to measure in aSAH and identify some of the shortcomings of these approaches. A consideration of the unique clinical course of aSAH is then discussed and how this impacts on selecting the best timepoints to assess change in the chosen constructs. We also review the how to critically appraise different measurement instruments and some of the issues with how these are applied in the context of aSAH. We conclude with current initiatives to improve outcome selection in aSAH and future directions in the research agenda.

Efficacy and safety of mechanical thrombectomy in acute stroke patients with pre-morbid disability

INTRODUCTION –

Patients with pre-morbid disability have been generally excluded from randomized controlled trials of mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke. However, stroke physicians commonly encounter such patients in practice, and face challenging treatment decisions when caring for them.

AREAS COVERED –

We review the literature on the safety and efficacy of thrombectomy in patients with pre-morbid disability. Recent clinical-epidemiological studies have highlighted the adverse outcomes that come with each increment of additional post-stroke disability in these patients. Several observational studies - both case series and registry-based studies - have helped demonstrate the comparable safety of thrombectomy in patients with pre-morbid disability as in those without, complementing similar data on thrombolysis. These data also suggest similar rates of successful recanalization, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and return to pre-stroke level of disability when treated with mechanical thrombectomy, although they have higher mortality.

EXPERT OPINION –

In the absence of high-quality evidence, we recommend pursuing shared decision-making with patients or family members and being upfront about the uncertain evidence. Available observational data underline the potential for a substantial proportion of these patients to return to their pre-morbid state, do not indicate a greater rate of treatment-related complications, and do not support routinely excluding these patients from thrombectomy.

Repeated Measures of Modified Rankin Scale Scores to Assess Functional Recovery From Stroke: AFFINITY Study Findings

Background

Function after acute stroke using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) is usually assessed at a point in time. The analytical implications of serial mRS measurements to evaluate functional recovery over time is not completely understood. We compare repeated‐measures and single‐measure analyses of the mRS from a randomized clinical trial.

Methods and Results

Serial mRS data from AFFINITY (Assessment of Fluoxetine in Stroke Recovery), a double‐blind placebo randomized clinical trial of fluoxetine following stroke (n=1280) were analyzed to identify demographic and clinical associations with functional recovery (reduction in mRS) over 12 months. Associations were identified using single‐measure (day 365) and repeated‐measures (days 28, 90, 180, and 365) partial proportional odds logistic regression. Ninety‐five percent of participants experienced a reduction in mRS after 12 months. Functional recovery was associated with age at stroke <70 years; no prestroke history of diabetes, coronary heart disease, or ischemic stroke; prestroke history of depression, a relationship partner, living with others, independence, or paid employment; no fluoxetine intervention; ischemic stroke (compared with hemorrhagic); stroke treatment in Vietnam (compared with Australia or New Zealand); longer time since current stroke; and lower baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale & Patient Health Questionnaire‐9 scores. Direction of associations was largely concordant between single‐measure and repeated‐measures models. Association strength and variance was generally smaller in the repeated‐measures model compared with the single‐measure model.

Conclusions

Repeated‐measures may improve trial precision in identifying trial associations and effects. Further repeated‐measures stroke analyses are required to prove methodological value.

Registration

URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au; Unique identifier: ACTRN12611000774921.

Associations between pre-stroke physical activity and physical quality of life three months after stroke in patients with mild disability

Background

Much is known about the association between physical activity and the occurrence of stroke. However, the evidence about the correlation between pre-stroke physical activity and post-stroke quality of life remains inconsistent. Thus, there is a high public health relevance to the topic.

Aim

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between pre-stroke physical activity and physical quality of life after three months.

Methods

Data arises from 858 patients with stroke included a prospective single-centre observational cohort study in Augsburg, Germany, between September 2018 and November 2019. The participants were recruited at the Department of Neurology and Clinical Neurophysiology, University Hospital of Augsburg after their stroke event. The level of physical activity was determined following the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire at baseline. Physical quality of life was assessed three months after hospital discharge using the German version of the Stroke Impact Scale (SIS). A multiple linear regression model and a quantile regression were carried out.

Results

A total of 497 patients were included in the analysis (mean age 69.6, 58.8% male), 26.2% had a high, 18.9% a moderate and 54.9% a low level of pre-stroke physical activity. Patients with high pre-stroke physical activity had a significantly better physical quality of life three months after stroke in the SIS physical domain (beta = 4.1) and in the SIS subdomains hand function (beta = 5.6), mobility (beta = 4.1) and activities of daily living (beta = 3.7). In the physical domain and the subdomain mobility, the effect was especially strong for persons with low physical quality of life after three months.

Conclusion

Pre-stroke physical activity seems to have an important and positive association with physical quality of life after three months in patients with mild disability. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Comparing Poor and Favorable Outcome Prediction With Machine Learning After Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose

Outcome prediction after mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and large vessel occlusion (LVO) is commonly performed by focusing on favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale, mRS 0–2) after 3 months but poor outcome representing severe disability and mortality (mRS 5 and 6) might be of equal importance for clinical decision-making.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed patients with AIS and LVO undergoing MT from 2009 to 2018. Prognostic variables were grouped in baseline clinical (A), MRI-derived variables including mismatch [apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and time-to-maximum (Tmax) lesion volume] (B), and variables reflecting speed and extent of reperfusion (C) [modified treatment in cerebral ischemia (mTICI) score and time from onset to mTICI]. Three different scenarios were analyzed: (1) baseline clinical parameters only, (2) baseline clinical and MRI-derived parameters, and (3) all baseline clinical, imaging-derived, and reperfusion-associated parameters. For each scenario, we assessed prediction for favorable and poor outcome with seven different machine learning algorithms.

Results

In 210 patients, prediction of favorable outcome was improved after including speed and extent of recanalization [highest area under the curve (AUC) 0.73] compared to using baseline clinical variables only (highest AUC 0.67). Prediction of poor outcome remained stable by using baseline clinical variables only (highest AUC 0.71) and did not improve further by additional variables. Prediction of favorable and poor outcomes was not improved by adding MR-mismatch variables. Most important baseline clinical variables for both outcomes were age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and premorbid mRS.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that a prediction of poor outcome after AIS and MT could be made based on clinical baseline variables only. Speed and extent of MT did improve prediction for a favorable outcome but is not relevant for poor outcome. An MR mismatch with small ischemic core and larger penumbral tissue showed no predictive importance.

Improving Visualization Methods of Utility-Weighted Disability Outcomes for Stroke Trials

Background

The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) is the most common endpoint in acute stroke trials, but its power is limited when analyzed dichotomously and its indication of effect size is challenging to interpret when analyzed ordinally. To address these issues, the utility-weighted-mRS (UW-mRS) has been developed as a patient-centered, linear scale. However, appropriate data visualizations of UW-mRS results are needed, as current stacked bar chart displays do not convey crucial utility-weighting information.

Design/Methods

Two UW-mRS display formats were devised: (1) Utility Staircase charts, and (2) choropleth-stacked-bar-charts (CSBCs). In Utility Staircase displays, mRS segment height reflects the utility value of each mRS level. In CSBCs, mRS segment color intensity reflects the utility of each mRS level. Utility Staircase and CSBC figures were generated for 15 randomized comparisons of acute ischemic/hemorrhagic stroke therapies, including fibrinolysis, endovascular reperfusion, blood pressure moderation, and hemicraniectomy. Display accuracy in showing utility outcomes was assessed with the Tufte-lie-factor and ease-of-use assessed by formal ratings completed by a panel of 4 neurologists and emergency physicians and one nurse-coordinator.

Results

The Utility Staircase and CSBC displays rapidly conveyed patient-centered valuation of trial outcome distributions not available in conventional ordinal stacked bar charts. Tufte-lie-factor (LF) scores indicated "substantial distortion" of utility-valued outcomes for 93% (14/15) of conventional stacked bar charts, vs. "no distortion" for all Utility Staircase and CSBC displays. Clinician ratings on the Figural Display Questionnaire indicated that utility information encoded in row height (Utility Staircase display) was more readily assimilated than that conveyed in segment hue intensity (CSBC), both superior to conventional stacked bar charts.

Conclusions

Utility Staircase displays are an efficient graphical format for conveying utility weighted-modified Rankin Scale primary endpoint results of acute stroke trials, and choropleth-stacked-bar-charts a good alternative. Both are more accurate in depicting quantitative, health-related quality of life results and preferred by clinician users for utility results visualization, compared with conventional stacked bar charts.

Understanding the effect of categorization of a continuous predictor with application to neuro-oncology

Many neuro-oncology studies commonly assess the association between a prognostic factor (predictor) and disease or outcome, such as the association between age and glioma. Predictors can be continuous (eg, age) or categorical (eg, race/ethnicity). Effects of categorical predictors are frequently easier to visualize and interpret than effects of continuous variables. This makes it an attractive, and seemingly justifiable, option to subdivide the continuous predictors into categories (eg, age <50 years vs age ≥50 years). However, this approach results in loss of information (and power) compared to the continuous version. This review outlines the use cases for continuous and categorized predictors and provides tips and pitfalls for interpretation of these approaches.

Endovascular Treatment and Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Premorbid Disability or Dementia: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

Patients with premorbid disability or dementia have generally been excluded from randomized controlled trials of reperfusion therapies such as thrombolysis and endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke. Consequently, stroke physicians face treatment dilemmas in caring for such patients. In this scientific statement, we review the literature on acute ischemic stroke in patients with premorbid disability or dementia and propose principles to guide clinicians, clinician-scientists, and policymakers on the use of acute stroke therapies in these populations. Recent clinical-epidemiological studies have demonstrated challenges in our concept and measurement of premorbid disability or dementia while highlighting the significant proportion of the general stroke population that falls under this umbrella, risking exclusion from therapies. Such studies have also helped clarify the adverse long-term clinical and health economic consequences with each increment of additional poststroke disability in these patients, underscoring the importance of finding strategies to mitigate such additional disability. Several observational studies, both case series and registry-based studies, have helped demonstrate the comparable safety of endovascular therapy in patients with premorbid disability or dementia and in those without, complementing similar data on thrombolysis. These data also suggest that such patients have a substantial potential to retain their prestroke level of disability when treated, despite their generally worse prognosis overall, although this remains to be validated in higher-quality registries and clinical trials. By pairing pragmatic and transparent decision-making in clinical practice with an active pursuit of high-quality research, we can work toward a more inclusive paradigm of patient-centered care for this often-neglected patient population.

Seeing the good in the bad: actual clinical outcome of thrombectomy stroke patients with formally unfavorable outcome

Purpose

Clinical outcome of stroke patients is usually classified into favorable (modified Rankin scale (mRS) 0–2) and unfavorable (mRS 3–5) outcome according to the modified Rankin scale. We took a closer look at the clinical course of thrombectomy stroke patients with formal unfavorable outcome and assessed whether we could achieve our treatment goals and/or neurological improvement in these patients.

Methods

We studied 107 patients with occlusions in the terminal carotid artery or the M1 segment of the middle cerebral artery, in whom complete recanalization (eTICI 3) could be achieved, and who had an mRS of 3–5 at 90 days. We analyzed whether an individual treatment goal (i.e., preventing aphasia) and neurological improvement (NIHSS) could be achieved. In addition, we examined whether there was clinical improvement on the mRS.

Results

The treatment goal was achieved in 52% (53/103) and neurological improvement in 65% (67/103). mRS 90 days post-stroke was better than mRS upon admission in 36% (38/107) and better than or equal to mRS upon admission in 80% (86/107). Of the 93 patients with known pre-stroke mRS, 18% (17/93) already had an mRS ≥ 3, with 15 of these 17 patients having a worse mRS on admission than before. Of these 17 patients, 18% regained baseline, and 24% improved from admission.

Conclusion

Dichotomizing the mRS into favorable and unfavorable outcome does not do justice to the full spectrum of stroke. Patients with formal unfavorable outcome after mRS can improve neurologically, achieve treatment goals, and even regain their admission or pre-stroke mRS.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00234-022-02920-1.

Combined Approach to Eptifibatide and Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Because of Large Vessel Occlusion: A Matched-Control Analysis

BACKGROUND

In patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy (MT), adjunctive antithrombotic might improve angiographic reperfusion, reduce the risk of distal emboli and reocclusion but possibly expose patients to a higher intracranial hemorrhage risk. This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of combined MT plus eptifibatide for acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

This was a propensity-matched analysis of data from 2 prospective trials in Chinese populations: the ANGEL-ACT trial (Endovascular Treatment Key Technique and Emergency Workflow Improvement of Acute Ischemic Stroke) in 111 hospitals between November 2017 and March 2019, and the EPOCH trial (Eptifibatide in Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke) in 15 hospitals between April 2019 and March 2020. The primary efficacy outcome was good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) at 3 months. Secondary efficacy outcomes included the distribution of 3-month modified Rankin Scale scores and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 5-6) and successful recanalization. The safety outcomes included any intracranial hemorrhage, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, and 3-month mortality. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to account for within-hospital clustering in adjusted analyses.

RESULTS

Eighty-one combination arm EPOCH subjects were matched with 81 ANGEL-ACT noneptifibatide patients. Compared with the no eptifibatide group, the eptifibatide group had significantly higher rates of successful recanalization (91.3% versus 81.5%; P=0.043) and 3-month good outcomes (53.1% versus 33.3%; P=0.016). No significant difference was found in the remaining outcome measures between the 2 groups. All outcome measures of propensity score matching were consistent with mixed-effects logistic regression models in the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

This matched-control study demonstrated that MT combined with eptifibatide did not raise major safety concerns and showed a trend of better efficacy outcomes compared with MT alone. Overall, eptifibatide shows potential as a periprocedural adjunctive antithrombotic therapy when combined with MT. Further randomized controlled trials of MT plus eptifibatide should be prioritized.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03844594 (EPOCH), NCT03370939 (ANGEL-ACT).

Thrombectomy is a cost-saving procedure up to 24 h after onset

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

The treatment of ischemic stroke due to large-vessel occlusion has been revolutionized by mechanical thrombectomy (MT), as multiple trials have consistently shown improved functional outcomes compared to standard medical management both in the early and late time windows after symptom onset. However, MT is an interventional procedure that is more costly than best supportive care (BSC).

METHODS

We set out to study the cost-utility and budget impact of MT + BSC versus BSC alone for large-vessel occlusion using a combined decision tree and Markov model. The analysis was conducted from a Belgian payer perspective over a lifetime horizon, and health states were defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). The treatment effect of MT + BSC combined clinical outcomes from all published early and late treatment window studies showing improved mRS after 90 days. Resource use and utilities were informed by an observational Belgian study of 569 stroke patients. Long-term mRS transitions were sourced from the Oxford Vascular study.

RESULTS

MT + BSC generated 1.31 additional quality-adjusted life years and resulted in cost savings of €10,216 per patient over lifetime. Deterministic sensitivity analyses demonstrated dominance of MT over a wide range of parameter inputs. In a Belgian setting, adding MT to BSC within an early time window for 1575 eligible stroke patients every year produced cost savings between €6.3 million (year 1) and €14.6 million (year 5), or a total cost saving of €56.2 million over 5 years.

CONCLUSION

Mechanical thrombectomy is a highly cost-effective treatment for ischemic stroke patients, providing quality-adjusted survival at lower health care cost, both when given in an early time window, as well as in a late time window.

Pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte/monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as prognostic biomarkers in glioma patients

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the ability for pre-treatment NLR and MLR to predict overall survival (OS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and to explore their relationship with clinicopathological parameters.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of pretreatment NLR and MLR from 64 glioma patients.

RESULTS

Higher pretreatment NLR (>4.7) predicted higher mean admission mRS (p < 0.001) and 6-month mRS (p = 0.02). Higher pretreatment MLR (>0.35) was a risk factor for poorer OS in glioma patients (p = 0.024). Higher pretreatment NLR was significantly associated with larger tumor diameter (p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

NLR and MLR can serve as prognostic markers to predict functional outcomes and OS in glioma patients.

A New Classification System for Postinterventional Cerebral Hyperdensity: The Influence on Hemorrhagic Transformation and Clinical Prognosis in Acute Stroke

Background

Postinterventional cerebral hyperdensity (PCHD) is commonly seen in acute ischemic patients after mechanical thrombectomy. We propose a new classification of PCHD to investigate its correlation with hemorrhagic transformation (HT). The clinical prognosis of PCHD was further studied.

Methods

Data from 189 acute stroke patients were analyzed retrospectively. According to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study criteria (ECASS), HT was classified as hemorrhagic infarction (HI-1 and HI-2) and parenchymal hematoma (pH-1 and pH-2). Referring to the classification of HT, PCHD was classified as PCHD-1, PCHD-2, PCHD-3, and PCHD-4. The prognosis included early neurological deterioration (END) and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months.

Results

The incidence of HT was 14.8% (12/81) in the no-PCHD group and 77.8% (84/108) in the PCHD group. PCHD was highly correlated with HT (r = 0.751, p < 0.01). After stepwise regression analysis, PCHD and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission were found to be independent factors for END (p < 0.001, p = 0.015, respectively). The area of curves (AUC) of PCHD, the NIHSS at admission, and the combined model were 0.810, 0.667, and 0.832, respectively. The optimal diagnostic cutoff of PCHD for END was PCHD > 2. PCHD, the NIHSS score at admission, and good vascular recanalization (VR) were independently associated with 3-month mRS (all p < 0.05). The AUC of PCHD, the NIHSS at admission, good VR, and the combined model were 0.779, 0.733, 0.565, and 0.867, respectively. And the best cutoff of PCHD for the mRS was PCHD > 1.

Conclusion

The relationship of PCHD and HT suggested PCHD was an early risk indicator for HT. The occurrence of PCHD-3 and PCHD-4 was a strong predictor for END. PCHD-1 is considered to be relatively benign in relation to the 3-month mRS.

Stroke Center Designations, Neurointerventionalist Demand, and the Finances of Stroke Thrombectomy in the United States

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

This article aims to provide an update on the designation of stroke centers, neurointerventionalist demand, and cost-effectiveness of stroke thrombectomy in the United States.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are now more than 1,660 stroke centers certified by national accrediting bodies in the United States, 306 of which are designated as thrombectomy-capable or comprehensive stroke centers. Considering the amount of nationally certified centers and the number of patients with acute stroke eligible for thrombectomy, each center would be responsible for 64 to 104 thrombectomies per year. As a result, there is a growing demand placed on neurointerventionalists, who have the ability to alter the trajectory of large vessel occlusive strokes. Numbers needed to achieve functional independence after stroke thrombectomy at 90 days range from 3.2 to 7.4 patients in the early time window and 2.8 to 3.6 patients in the extended time window in appropriately selected candidates. With the low number needed to treat, in a variety of valued-based calculations and cost-effectiveness analyses, stroke thrombectomy has proved to be both clinically effective and cost-effective.

SUMMARY

Advancements in the early recognition and treatment of stroke have been paralleled by a remodeling of health care systems to ensure best practices in a timely manner. Stroke center-accrediting bodies provide oversight to safeguard these standards. As successful trial data from high volume centers transform into real-world experience, we must continue to re-evaluate cost-effectiveness, strike a balance between sufficient case volumes to maintain clinical excellence vs the burden and burnout associated with call responsibilities, and improve access to care for all.

Ketamine for critically ill patients with severe acute brain injury: Protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis of randomised clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

Intensive care for patients with severe acute brain injury aims both to treat the immediate consequences of the injury and to prevent and treat secondary brain injury to ensure a good functional outcome. Sedation may be used to facilitate mechanical ventilation, for treating agitation, and for controlling intracranial pressure. Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist with sedative, analgesic, and potentially neuroprotective properties. We describe a protocol for a systematic review of randomised clinical trials assessing the beneficial and harmful effects of ketamine for patients with severe acute brain injury.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will systematically search international databases for randomised clinical trials, including CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and trial registries. Two authors will independently review and select trials for inclusion, and extract data. We will compare ketamine by any regimen versus placebo, no intervention, or other sedatives or analgesics for patients with severe acute brain injury. The primary outcomes will be functional outcome at maximal follow up, quality of life, and serious adverse events. We will also assess secondary and exploratory outcomes. The extracted data will be analysed using Review Manager and Trials Sequential Analysis. Evidence certainty will be graded using GRADE.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The results of the systematic review will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication. With the review, we hope to inform future randomised clinical trials and improve clinical practice.

PROSPERO NO

CRD42021210447.

Assessment of Discrepancies Between Follow-up Infarct Volume and 90-Day Outcomes Among Patients With Ischemic Stroke Who Received Endovascular Therapy

IMPORTANCE

Some patients have poor outcomes despite small infarcts after endovascular therapy (EVT), while others with large infarcts do well. Understanding why these discrepancies occur may help to optimize EVT outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To validate exploratory findings from the Endovascular Treatment for Small Core and Anterior Circulation Proximal Occlusion with Emphasis on Minimizing CT to Recanalization Times (ESCAPE) trial regarding pretreatment, treatment-related, and posttreatment factors associated with discrepancies between follow-up infarct volume (FIV) and 90-day functional outcome.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of the Safety and Efficacy of Nerinetide in Subjects Undergoing Endovascular Thrombectomy for Stroke (ESCAPE-NA1) trial, a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, international, multicenter trial conducted from March 2017 to August 2019. Patients who participated in ESCAPE-NA1 and had available 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores and 24-hour to 48-hour posttreatment follow-up parenchymal imaging were included.

EXPOSURES

Small FIV (volume ≤25th percentile) and large FIV (volume ≥75th percentile) on 24-hour computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging. Baseline factors, outcomes, treatments, and poststroke serious adverse events (SAEs) were compared between discrepant cases (ie, patients with 90-day mRS score ≥3 despite small FIV or those with mRS scores ≤2 despite large FIV) and nondiscrepant cases.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Area under the curve (AUC) and goodness of fit of prespecified logistic models, including pretreatment (eg, age, cancer, vascular risk factors) and treatment-related and posttreatment (eg, SAEs) factors, were compared with stepwise regression-derived models for ability to identify small FIV with higher mRS score and large FIV with lower mRS score.

RESULTS

Among 1091 patients (median [IQR] age, 70.8 [60.8-79.8] years; 549 [49.7%] women; median [IQR] FIV, 24.9 mL [6.6-92.2 mL]), 42 of 287 patients (14.6%) with FIV of 7 mL or less (ie, ≤25th percentile) had an mRS score of at least 3; 65 of 275 patients (23.6%) with FIV of 92 mL or greater (ie, ≥75th percentile) had an mRS score of 2 or less. Prespecified models of pretreatment factors (ie, age, cancer, vascular risk factors) associated with low FIV and higher mRS score performed similarly to models selected by stepwise regression (AUC, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95] vs 0.93 [95% CI, 0.90-0.95]; P = .42). SAEs, specifically infarct in new territory, recurrent stroke, pneumonia, and congestive heart failure, were associated with low FIV and higher mRS scores; stepwise models also identified 24-hour hemoglobin as treatment-related/posttreatment factor (AUC, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90-0.95] vs 0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.96]; P = .14). Younger age was associated with high FIV and lower mRS score; stepwise models identified absence of diabetes and higher baseline hemoglobin as additional pretreatment factors (AUC, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.70-0.82] vs 0.77 [95% CI, 0.71-0.83]; P = .82). Absence of SAEs, especially stroke progression, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and pneumonia, was associated with high FIV and lower mRS score2; stepwise models also identified 24-hour hemoglobin level, glucose, and diastolic blood pressure as posttreatment factors associated with discrepant cases (AUC, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.74-0.87] vs 0.79 [95% CI, 0.72-0.86]; P = .92).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, discrepancies between functional outcome and post-EVT infarct volume were associated with differences in pretreatment factors, such as age and comorbidities, and posttreatment complications related to index stroke evolution, secondary prevention, and quality of stroke unit care. Besides preventing such complications, optimization of blood pressure, glucose levels, and hemoglobin levels are potentially modifiable factors meriting further study.

Admission Glasgow Coma Scale Score as a Predictor of Outcome in Patients Without Traumatic Brain Injury

BACKGROUND

The Glasgow Coma Scale was developed in 1974 as an injury severity score to assess and predict outcome after traumatic brain injury. The tool is now used to score depth of impaired consciousness in patients with and without traumatic brain injury. However, evidence supporting the use of the Glasgow Coma Scale in the latter group is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To assess Glasgow Coma Scale score on hospital admission as a predictor of outcome in patients without traumatic brain injury.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from 3507 patients admitted to 4 hospitals between October 2015 and October 2019. Patients with a primary diagnosis of traumatic brain injury were excluded from this study.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 3507 participants in the study was 57 years. Participants were primarily female (52%), White (77%), and non-Hispanic (89%). On admission, 90% of patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 3 and 72% had a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13 to 15 (mild injury). Generalized estimating equation modeling indicated that admission Glasgow Coma Scale score did not predict modified Rankin Scale score at discharge in patients not diagnosed with traumatic brain injury (Glasgow Coma Scale score <8: z = -7.89, P < .001; Glasgow Coma Scale score 8-12: z = -4.17, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The Glasgow Coma Scale is not recommended for use in patients without traumatic brain injury; clinicians should use a more appropriate and validated clinical assessment instrument for this patient population.

From Three-Months to Five-Years: Sustaining Long-Term Benefits of Endovascular Therapy for Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose: During the months and years post-stroke, treatment benefits from endovascular therapy (EVT) may be magnified by disability-related differences in morbidity/mortality or may be eroded by recurrent strokes and non-stroke-related disability/mortality. Understanding the extent to which EVT benefits may be sustained at 5 years, and the factors influencing this outcome, may help us better promote the sustenance of EVT benefits until 5 years post-stroke and beyond.

Methods: In this review, undertaken 5 years after EVT became the standard of care, we searched PubMed and EMBASE to examine the current state of the literature on 5-year post-stroke outcomes, with particular attention to modifiable factors that influence outcomes between 3 months and 5 years post-EVT.

Results: Prospective cohorts and follow-up data from EVT trials indicate that 3-month EVT benefits will likely translate into lower 5-year disability, mortality, institutionalization, and care costs and higher quality of life. However, these group-level data by no means guarantee maintenance of 3-month benefits for individual patients. We identify factors and associated “action items” for stroke teams/systems at three specific levels (medical care, individual psychosocioeconomic, and larger societal/environmental levels) that influence the long-term EVT outcome of a patient. Medical action items include optimizing stroke rehabilitation, clinical follow-up, secondary stroke prevention, infection prevention/control, and post-stroke depression care. Psychosocioeconomic aspects include addressing access to primary care, specialist clinics, and rehabilitation; affordability of healthy lifestyle choices and preventative therapies; and optimization of family/social support and return-to-work options. High-level societal efforts include improving accessibility of public/private spaces and transportation, empowering/engaging persons with disability in society, and investing in treatments/technologies to mitigate consequences of post-stroke disability.

Conclusions: In the longtime horizon from 3 months to 5 years, several factors in the medical and societal spheres could negate EVT benefits. However, many factors can be leveraged to preserve or magnify treatment benefits, with opportunities to share responsibility with widening circles of care around the patient.