Prospective External Validation of the Pediatric Risk Assessment Score in Predicting Perioperative Mortality in Children Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

Creation of a Pediatric Sedation Risk Assessment Scoring System: A Novel Method to Stratify Risk

This study aimed to create a pediatric sedation scoring system independent of the American Society of Anesthesiology Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification that is predictive of adverse events, facilitates objective stratification, and resource allocation. Multivariable regression and machine learning algorithm analysis of 134,973 sedation encounters logged in to the Pediatric Sedation Research Consortium (PSRC) database between July 2007 and June 2011. Patient and procedure variables were correlated with adverse events with resultant β -regression coefficients used to assign point values to each variable. Point values were then summed to create a risk assessment score. Validation of the model was performed with the 2011 to 2013 PSRC database followed by calculation of ROC curves and positive predictive values. Factors identified and resultant point values are as follows: 1 point: age ≤ 6 months, cardiac diagnosis, asthma, weight less than 5th percentile or greater than 95 th , and computed tomography (CT) scan; 2 points: magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) and weight greater than 99th percentile; 4 points: magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); 5 points: trisomy 21 and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD); 7 points: cough at the time of examination; and 18 points: bronchoscopy. Sum of patient and procedural values produced total risk assessment scores. Total risk assessment score of 5 had a sensitivity of 82.69% and a specificity of 26.22%, while risk assessment score of 11 had a sensitivity of 12.70% but a specificity of 95.29%. Inclusion of ASA-PS value did not improve model sensitivity or specificity and was thus excluded. Higher risk assessment scores predicted increased likelihood of adverse events during sedation. The score can be used to triage patients independent of ASA-PS with site-specific cut-off values used to determine appropriate sedation resource allocation.

A systematic review of neurological airway respiratory cardiovascular other-surgical severity (NARCO-SS) score as a pediatric perioperative scoring system

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify and synthesize the available evidence of the neurological airway respiratory cardiovascular other-surgical severity (NARCO-SS) score as compared to other pediatric specific perioperative scoring systems.

DESIGN

This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) statement. All studies in all languages comparing NARCO-SS with pediatric perioperative scoring systems against outcomes were included. Records were screened and data were extracted by three independent reviewers into standardized pilot-tested extraction templates.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic searches were performed in MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and CINAHL (from inception to February 2023).

REVIEW METHODS

The references were uploaded to a validated software for systematic reviews (Rayyan) and screened against the inclusion criteria. Full text of included studies were reviewed and the available data were tabulated. We conducted Risk of Bias analysis on the included studies using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

A meta-analysis could not be performed due to differences in outcome definitions across the included studies. Correlations between NARCO-SS scores, ASA-PS scores and the predefined outcomes of each study were presented as a narrative synthesis. The included studies were determined to have a high risk of bias using the PROBAST.

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified a need for high-quality studies assessing NARCO-SS before recommendations for clinical practice can be made. Addressing its limitations and enhancing the NARCO-SS through targeted refinements of its individual descriptive categories could potentially lead to improvement in its overall predictive accuracy and facilitate wider adoption into clinical practice.

Comparison of the PCPLC Database to NSQIP-P: A Patient Matched Comparison of Surgical Complications Following Repair of Anorectal Malformation

BACKGROUND

Anorectal malformations (ARM) are rare and heterogenous which creates a challenge in conducting research and offering recommendations for best practice. The Pediatric Colorectal and Pelvic Learning Consortium (PCPLC) was formed in 2016 to address this challenge and created a shared national data registry to collect information about pediatric colorectal patients. There has been no external validation of the data collected. We sought to evaluate the database by performing a patient matched analysis comparing 30-day outcomes identified in the PCPLC registry with the NSQIP-P database for patients undergoing surgical repair of ARM.

METHODS

Patients captured in the PCPLC database from 2016 to 2021 at institutions also participating in NSQIP-P who underwent ARM repair younger than 12 months old were reviewed for 30-day complications. These patients were matched to their NSQIP-P record using their hospital identification number, and records were compared for concordance in identified complications.

RESULTS

A total of 591 patient records met inclusion criteria in the PCPLC database. Of these, 180 patients were also reviewed by NSQIP-P. One hundred and fifty-six patient records had no complications recorded. Twenty-four patient records had a complication listed in one or both databases. There was a 91 % concordance rate between databases. When excluding complications not tracked in the PCPLC registry, this agreement improved to 93 %.

CONCLUSION

Including all patients evaluated for this subpopulation, a 91 % concordance rate was observed when comparing PCPLC collected complications to NSQIP-P. Future efforts can focus on further validating the data within the PCPLC for other patient populations.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

V.

Abdalgadir E, Saad A, Saad MM, Saad El-Tanekhy A, Saadi C, Saadu T, Saber M, Sabir Yassin FM, Sabo VY, Sabra TA, Saeid DA, Safar A, Sagboze S, Sahnoun L, Salahu BM, Salami K, Salawu AI, Saleh H, Saleh IA, Saleh KM, Salele AM, Salem F, Salem O, Salih MAIA, Salisu I, Sall M, SAMB CF, Sangak IA, Sanoussi NM, Sanya D, Sanyang AB, Sarpong P, SARR JN, Schnaubelt R, Searyoh K, SECK NF, Secka AS, Seif M, Seilbea Y, Semret Hailu B, Sepenu P, Sewlall J, Seyi-Olajide J, Shai S, Shalaby AMO, SHAPHAT IBRAHIM, Shava G, Sheidu Owuda A, Sheshe AA, Shetiwy M, Shezi N, Shihab MH, Shitakumuna H, Shitaye N, Shitta AH, Sholadoye TT, Shouasha P, Shu'aibu NG, Shuiap NM, Sibeko B, Sikhakhane S, Sikwete G, Sime Gizaw H, Simelane N, Simon E, Singh U, SIRAJALDIN A, Siriboe E, Siyothula T, Siyotula T, Smart-Yeboah A, SMITH S, Solala S, Soliman EA, Solo CE, Sombéwendin Charles I, Sonaike M, Songden DZ, Sottie D, Soualili Z, Soula E, Souleymane S, SOWANDE OA, Spytko A, Srir DOM, Ssebuguzi L, Stegmann GF, Strauss L, Struwig E, Succi M, Suleiman AR, Suliman M, Swartz M, Taha TM, Takai IU, Takou BH, Takrouney MH, Takure A, TALABI AO, Tall M, Taute C, Tawfik M, Taylor J, Tembe DS, Temesgen F, Tesfaye E, Theko D, Thiart M, Thompson R, Thuer L, Tientcheu Fabrice T, Tilahun ZB, Tilahun Woldetsadik T, Timo M, Timotews N, Tjiyokola D, Tolani MA, TOUABTI S, Traoré D, Tsegha LJ, Tseli M, Tumuhimbise C, Tumukunde J, Tunkara SFS, Turshan L, Turton E, Uchendu CC, UDIE GU, UDOSEN JE, Ugalahi M, Ugwu EM, UGWU IE, Ugwu JO, Ugwunne CA, Ukpabio UE, Umar AM, UMEH CL, Ungen R, Usang U, Usenbo T, Usman MI, UWAYESU R, Van Aswegen B, van der Byl A, van der Linde P, van der Walt S, van Schalkwyk HP, van Tonder C, van Vuuren S, van Wyk J, van Zyl S, Wabule A, Wacays A, Waheed Mowafy G, Waisiko B, Walawah D, Walithandia E, Wamwaki J, Wataaka N, Wessels N, Wessels N, Williams E, WILLIAMS O, Woldegiorgis A, Wolfaardt G, Wondossen M, Woodun R, Workineh ST, Wubetu S, Yahia M, Yakubu H, Yakubu SY, Yalewu DZ, YAMEOGO TAC, Yeboah F, YENYI AHUKA LONGOMBE T, Younes E, Young C, Younis N, Younus TYI, YUSUF STEPHEN, Zaki F, Zbida I, Zenda T, ZERIZER Y, Zingoni K, Zitouni H, ZONGO PV, Zubi A, Zulu N, Zulu N, Yakubu H, Yakubu SY, Yalewu DZ, YAMEOGO TAC, Yeboah F, YENYI AHUKA LONGOMBE T, Younes E, Young C, Younis N, Younus TYI, YUSUF STEPHEN, Zaki F, Zbida I, Zenda T, ZERIZER Y, Zingoni K, Zitouni H, ZONGO PV, Zubi A, Zulu N, Zulu N. Outcomes after surgery for children in Africa (ASOS-Paeds): a 14-day prospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Safe anaesthesia and surgery are a public health imperative. There are few data describing outcomes for children undergoing anaesthesia and surgery in Africa. We aimed to get robust epidemiological data to describe patient care and outcomes for children undergoing anaesthesia and surgery in hospitals in Africa.

METHODS

This study was a 14-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study of children (aged <18 years) undergoing surgery in Africa. We recruited as many hospitals as possible across all levels of care (first, second, and third) providing surgical treatment. Each hospital recruited all eligible children for a 14-day period commencing on the date chosen by each participating hospital within the study recruitment period from Jan 15 to Dec 23, 2022. Data were collected prospectively for consecutive patients on paper case record forms. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery and the secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality within 30 days after surgery. We also collected hospital-level data describing equipment, facilities, and protocols available. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05061407.

FINDINGS

We recruited 8625 children from 249 hospitals in 31 African countries. The mean age was 6·1 (SD 4·9) years, with 5675 (66·0%) of 8600 children being male. Most children (6110 [71·2%] of 8579 patients) were from category 1 of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status score undergoing elective surgery (5325 [61·9%] of 8604 patients). Postoperative complications occurred in 1532 (18·0%) of 8515 children, predominated by infections (971 [11·4%] of 8538 children). Deaths occurred in 199 (2·3%) of 8596 patients, 169 (84·9%) of 199 patients following emergency surgeries. Deaths following postoperative complications occurred in 166 (10·8%) of 1530 complications. Operating rooms were reported as safe for anaesthesia and surgery for neonates (121 [54·3%] of 223 hospitals), infants (147 [65·9%] of 223 hospitals), and children younger than 6 years (188 [84·3%] of 223 hospitals).

INTERPRETATION

Outcomes following anaesthesia and surgery for children in Africa are poor, with complication rates up to four-fold higher (18% vs 4·4-14%) and mortality rates 11-fold higher than high-income countries in a crude, unadjusted comparison (23·15 deaths vs 2·18 deaths per 1000 children). To improve surgical outcomes for children in Africa, we need health system strengthening, provision of safe environments for anaesthesia and surgery, and strategies to address the high rate of failure to rescue.

FUNDING

Jan Pretorius Research Fund of the South African Society of Anaesthesiologists and Association of Anesthesiologists of Uganda.

Retrospective analysis of neurological findings in esophageal atresia: Allostatic load of disease complexity, cumulative sedation, and anesthesia exposure

BACKGROUND

There is limited knowledge regarding the impact of perioperative critical care on frequency of neurological imaging findings following esophageal atresia (EA) repair.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of infants (n = 70) following EA repair at a single institution (2009-2020). Sex, gestational age at birth, type of surgical repair, underlying disease severity, and frequency of neurologic imaging findings were obtained. We quantified the length of postoperative pain/sedation treatment and anesthesia exposure in the first year of life. Data were presented as numerical sums and percentages, while associations were measured using Spearman's Rho.

RESULTS

Vertebral/spinal cord imaging was performed in all infants revealing abnormalities in 44% (31/70). Cranial/brain imaging findings were identified in 67% (22/33) of infants in the context of clinically indicated imaging (47%; 33/70). Long-gap EA patients (n = 16) received 10 times longer postoperative pain/sedation treatment and twice the anesthesia exposure compared with short-gap EA patients (n = 54). The frequency of neurologic imaging findings did not correlate with underlying disease severity scores, length of pain/sedation treatment, or cumulative anesthesia exposure. Lack of associations between clinical measures and imaging findings should be interpreted with caution given possible underestimation of cranial/brain findings.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose that all infants with EA undergo brain imaging in addition to routine spinal imaging given the high burden of abnormal brain/cranial findings in our cohort. Quantification of pain/sedation and anesthesia exposure in long-gap EA patients could be used as indirect markers in future studies assessing the risk of neurological sequelae as evidenced by early abnormalities on brain imaging.

A machine-learning approach for decision support and risk stratification of pediatric perioperative patients based on the APRICOT dataset

BACKGROUND

Pediatric anesthesia has evolved to a high level of patient safety, yet a small chance remains for serious perioperative complications, even in those traditionally considered at low risk. In practice, prediction of at-risk patients currently relies on the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) score, despite reported inconsistencies with this method.

AIMS

The goal of this study was to develop predictive models that can classify children as low risk for anesthesia at the time of surgical booking and after anesthetic assessment on the procedure day.

METHODS

Our dataset was derived from APRICOT, a prospective observational cohort study conducted by 261 European institutions in 2014 and 2015. We included only the first procedure, ASA-PS classification I to III, and perioperative adverse events not classified as drug errors, reducing the total number of records to 30 325 with an adverse event rate of 4.43%. From this dataset, a stratified train:test split of 70:30 was used to develop predictive machine learning algorithms that could identify children in ASA-PS class I to III at low risk for severe perioperative critical events that included respiratory, cardiac, allergic, and neurological complications.

RESULTS

Our selected models achieved accuracies of >0.9, areas under the receiver operating curve of 0.6-0.7, and negative predictive values >95%. Gradient boosting models were the best performing for both the booking phase and the day-of-surgery phase.

CONCLUSIONS

This work demonstrates that prediction of patients at low risk of critical PAEs can be made on an individual, rather than population-based, level by using machine learning. Our approach yielded two models that accommodate wide clinical variability and, with further development, are potentially generalizable to many surgical centers.

Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Technologies in the Construction of Surgical Risk Prediction Model for Patients with Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

The objective of this work was to predict the risk of mortality rate in patients with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) based on the risk prediction model of CABG using artificial intelligence (AI) and big data technologies. The clinical data of 2,364 patients undergoing CABG in our hospital from January 2019 to August 2021 were collected in this work. Based on AI and big data technology, business requirement analysis, system requirement analysis, complication prediction module, big data mining technology, and model building are carried out, respectively; the successful CABG risk prediction system includes case feature analysis service, risk warning service, and case retrieval service. The commonly used precision, recall, and F1-score were adopted to evaluate the quality of the gradient-boosted tree (GBT) model. The analysis proved that the GBT model was the best in terms of precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). According to the CABG risk prediction model, 1,382 patients had a score of <0, 463 patients had a score of 0 ≤ score ≤ 2, 252 patients had a score of 2 < score ≤ 5, and 267 patients had a score of >5, which were stratified into four groups: A, B, C, and D. The actual number of in-hospital deaths was 25, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.05%. The mortality rate predicted by the CABG risk prediction model was 2.67 ± 1.82% (95% confidential interval (CI) (2.87-2.98)), which was higher than the actual value. The CABG risk prediction model showed the credible results only in group B with AUC = 0.763 > 0.7. In group B, 3 patients actually died, the actual mortality rate was 0.33%, and the predicted mortality rate was 0.96 ± 0.78 (95% CI (0.82-0.87)), which overestimated the mortality rate of patients in group B. It successfully constructed a CABG risk prediction model based on the AI and big data technologies, which would overestimate the mortality of patients with intermediate risk, and it is suitable for different types of heart diseases through continuous research and development and innovation, and provides clinical guidance value.

Tracheostomy, Feeding-Tube, and In-Hospital Postoperative Mortality in Children: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Neuromuscular/neurologic disease confers increased risk of perioperative mortality in children. Some patients require tracheostomy and/or feeding tubes to ameliorate upper airway obstruction or respiratory failure and reduce aspiration risk. Empiric differences between patients with and without these devices and their association with postoperative mortality have not been previously assessed.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study using the Pediatric Health Information System measured 3- and 30-day in-hospital postsurgical mortality among children 1 month to 18 years of age with neuromuscular/neurologic disease at 44 US children's hospitals, from April 2016 to October 2018. We summarized differences between patients presenting for surgery with and without these devices using standardized differences. Then, we calculated 3- and 30-day mortality among patients with tracheostomy, feeding tube, both, and neither device, overall and stratified by important exposures, using Fisher exact test to test whether differences were significant.

RESULTS

There were 43,193 eligible patients. Unadjusted 3-day mortality was 1.3% (549/43,193); 30-day mortality was 2.7% (1168/43,193). Most (79.1%) used neither a feeding tube or tracheostomy, 1.2% had tracheostomy only, 15.5% had feeding tube only, and 4.2% used both devices. Compared to children with neither device, children using either or both devices were more likely to have multiple CCCs, dysphagia, chronic pulmonary disease, cerebral palsy, obstructive sleep apnea, or malnutrition, and a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay within the previous year. They were less likely to present for high-risk surgeries (33% vs 57%). Having a feeding tube was associated with decreased 3-day mortality overall compared to having neither device (0.9% vs 1.3%, P = .003), and among children having low-risk surgery, and surgery during urgent or emergent hospitalizations. Having both devices was associated with decreased 3-day mortality among children having low-risk surgery (0.8% vs 1.9%; P = .013), and during urgent or emergent hospitalizations (1.6% vs 2.9%; P = .023). For 30-day mortality, having a feeding tube or both devices was associated with lower mortality when the data were stratified by the number of CCCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients requiring tracheostomy, feeding tube, or both are generally sicker than patients without these devices. Despite this, having a feeding tube was associated with lower 3-day mortality overall and lower 30-day mortality when the data were stratified by the number of CCCs. Having both devices was associated with lower 3-day mortality in patients presenting for low-risk surgery, and surgery during urgent or emergent hospitalizations.

Validation of Automated Data Extraction From the Electronic Medical Record to Provide a Pediatric Risk Assessment Score

BACKGROUND

Although the rate of pediatric postoperative mortality is low, the development and validation of perioperative risk assessment models have allowed for the stratification of those at highest risk, including the Pediatric Risk Assessment (PRAm) score. The clinical application of such tools requires manual data entry, which may be inaccurate or incomplete, compromise efficiency, and increase physicians' clerical obligations. We aimed to create an electronically derived, automated PRAm score and to evaluate its agreement with the original American College of Surgery National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP)-derived and validated score.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational study of children <18 years who underwent noncardiac surgery from 2017 through 2021 at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH). An automated PRAm score was developed via electronic derivation of International Classification of Disease (ICD) -9 and -10 codes. The primary outcome was agreement and correlation among PRAm scores obtained via automation, NSQIP data, and manual physician entry from the same BCH cohort. The secondary outcome was discriminatory ability of the 3 PRAm versions. Fleiss Kappa, Spearman correlation (rho), and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses with area under the curve (AUC) were applied accordingly.

RESULTS

Of the 6014 patients with NSQIP and automated PRAm scores (manual scores: n = 5267), the rate of 30-day mortality was 0.18% (n = 11). Agreement and correlation were greater between the NSQIP and automated scores (rho = 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.79; P <.001; ICC = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.79-0.81; Fleiss kappa = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.65-0.67) versus the NSQIP and manual scores (rho = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.74; P < .001; ICC = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.79; Fleiss kappa = 0.56; 95% CI, 0.54-0.57). ROC analysis with AUC showed the manual score to have the greatest discrimination (AUC = 0.976; 95% CI, 0.959,0.993) compared to the NSQIP (AUC = 0.904; 95% CI, 0.792-0.999) and automated (AUC = 0.880; 95% CI, 0.769-0.999) scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of an electronically derived, automated PRAm score that maintains good discrimination for 30-day mortality in neonates, infants, and children after noncardiac surgery is feasible. The automated PRAm score may reduce the preoperative clerical workload and provide an efficient and accurate means by which to risk stratify neonatal and pediatric surgical patients with the goal of improving clinical outcomes and resource utilization.

Development and validation of a national perioperative mortality risk model for pediatric surgery: The New Zealand pediatric surgical risk tool (NZRISK-pediatric): NZRISK-Pediatric

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models are well established as an adjunct to perioperative decision making, but few exist for pediatric surgical outcomes. The majority of risk tools do not feature Australasian data and do not estimate mortality risk beyond 30-days. Our aim was to develop and validate a model for mortality risk prediction in children (age <18yrs) at 30-days, 90-days and 1 year following all types of surgery using a national database.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The New Zealand Ministry of Health National Minimum Dataset was accessed to obtain clinical and demographic data for all children having surgery between June 1st 2011 and July 1st 2016. Three quarters of the data were used to derive 3 models to predict 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality risk, and the remaining data used for validation. We constructed 3 models using data from 135 217 patients, validating a total of 11 covariates for risk prediction. Included were neonate, prematurity, ASA-PS status, heart and lung disease, active malignancy, sepsis, surgical type, surgical severity score, surgical urgency, ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation. All models showed excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.947, 0.933 and 0.908 respectively) and calibration statistics (calibration slopes of 0.778, 1.125, 1.153, Brier scores of 0.001, 0.002, 0.003 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Combining objective data with severity indices, NZRISK-Paed presents a risk stratification model which is intuitive and practical. Application of 30-day, 90-day and 1-year percentage mortality risk aids in longer-term planning, shared decision-making and allocation of resource to the individual and to high needs populations. Risk prediction tools add an objective measure to pre-operative assessment but few exist for pediatric surgery and none predict mortality beyond 30-days.

Infant Perioperative Risk Factors and Adverse Brain Findings Following Long-Gap Esophageal Atresia Repair

Recent findings implicate brain vulnerability following long-gap esophageal atresia (LGEA) repair. We explored the relationship between easily quantifiable clinical measures and previously reported brain findings in a pilot cohort of infants following LGEA repair. MRI measures (number of qualitative brain findings; normalized brain and corpus callosum volumes) were previously reported in term-born and early-to-late premature infants (n = 13/group) <1 year following LGEA repair with the Foker process. The severity of underlying disease was classified by an (1) American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) physical status and (2) Pediatric Risk Assessment (PRAm) scores. Additional clinical end-point measures included: anesthesia exposure (number of events; cumulative minimal alveolar concentration (MAC) exposure in hours), length (in days) of postoperative intubated sedation, paralysis, antibiotic, steroid, and total parenteral nutrition (TPN) treatment. Associations between clinical end-point measures and brain MRI data were tested using Spearman rho and multivariable linear regression. Premature infants were more critically ill per ASA scores, which showed a positive association with the number of cranial MRI findings. Clinical end-point measures together significantly predicted the number of cranial MRI findings for both term-born and premature infant groups, but none of the individual clinical measures did on their own. Listed easily quantifiable clinical end-point measures could be used together as indirect markers in assessing the risk of brain abnormalities following LGEA repair.

Perioperative mortality in pediatric patients: a systematic review of risk assessment tools for use in the preoperative setting

BACKGROUND

There are multiple preoperative risk scores for pediatric mortality. The aim of this study was to systematically describe and compare the existing studies of patient-specific multispecialty risk prediction scores for perioperative mortality in pediatric populations, with the goal of guiding clinicians on which may be most appropriate for use in the preoperative setting.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of published journal articles that presented the development, extension/updating, and/or validation of a risk score which predicted all-cause mortality (up to 30 days postoperatively) in pediatric patients undergoing a procedure in which anesthesia was used. Scores needed to be applicable to surgeries in more than one non-cardiac surgical specialty and had to be able to be calculated by the anesthesiologist at the time of the pre-anesthetic assessment. Two investigators independently screened studies for inclusion and assessed study quality in the domains of clinical applicability, feasibility/ease of use in the clinical setting, and risk of bias.

RESULTS

A total of 1,681 titles were retrieved. Of these, 10 studies met inclusion criteria: nine reported the development and validation of scores, and one was an external validation of an existing score. Seven studies used varying years of multicenter data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program - Pediatric Participant Use File for development and/or validation. The unadjusted rate of mortality in the studies ranged from 0.3% to 3.6%. The preoperative predictors of mortality used in score development included patient demographics, preoperative therapies, and chronic conditions, among others. All models showed good discrimination upon validation (AUC > 0.8). Most risk scores had high or unclear risks of bias.

CONCLUSION

There are numerous scores available for the prediction of mortality in pediatric populations, all of which exhibited good performance. However, many have high or unclear risks of bias, and most have not undergone external validation.

Perioperative critical events and morbidity associated with anesthesia in early life: Subgroup analysis of United Kingdom participation in the NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE) prospective multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

The NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE) prospective observational study reported critical events requiring intervention during 35.2% of 6542 anesthetic episodes in 5609 infants up to 60 weeks postmenstrual age. The United Kingdom (UK) was one of 31 participating countries.

METHODS

Subgroup analysis of UK NECTARINE cases (12.8% of cohort) to identify perioperative critical events that triggered medical interventions. Secondary aims were to describe UK practice, identify factors more commonly associated with critical events, and compare 30-day morbidity and mortality between participating UK and nonUK centers.

RESULTS

Seventeen UK centers recruited 722 patients (68.7% male, 36.1% born preterm, and 48.1% congenital anomalies) undergoing anesthesia for 876 surgical or diagnostic procedures at 25-60 weeks postmenstrual age. Repeat anesthesia/surgery was common: 17.6% patients prior to and 14.4% during the recruitment period. Perioperative critical events triggered interventions in 300/876 (34.3%) cases. Cardiovascular instability (16.9% of cases) and/or reduced oxygenation (11.4%) were more common in younger patients and those with co-morbidities or requiring preoperative intensive support. A higher proportion of UK than nonUK cases were graded as ASA-Physical Status scores >2 or requiring urgent or emergency procedures, and 39% required postoperative intensive care. Thirty-day morbidity (complications in 17.2%) and mortality (8/715, 1.1%) did not differ from nonUK participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative critical events and co-morbidities are common in neonates and young infants. Thirty-day morbidity and mortality data did not demonstrate national differences in outcome. Identifying factors associated with increased risk informs preoperative assessment, resource allocation, and discussions between clinicians and families.

From the Ground Up: Esophageal Atresia Types, Disease Severity Stratification and Survival Rates at a Single Institution

Esophageal atresia (EA), although a rare congenital anomaly, represents one of the most common gastrointestinal birth defects. There is a gap in our knowledge regarding the impact of perioperative critical care in infants born with EA. This study addresses EA types, disease severity stratification, and mortality in a retrospective cohort at a single institution. Institutional Review Board approved our retrospective cross-sectional study of term-born (n = 53) and premature infants (28–37 weeks of gestation; n = 31) that underwent primary surgical repair of EA at a single institution from 2009–2020. Demographic and clinical data were obtained from the electronic medical record, Powerchart (Cerner, London, UK). Patients were categorized by (i) sex, (ii) gestational age at birth, (iii) types of EA (in relation to respiratory tract anomalies), (iv) co-occurring congenital anomalies, (v) severity of disease (viz. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) and Pediatric Risk Assessment (PRAm) scores), (vi) type of surgical repair for EA (primary anastomosis vs. Foker process), and (vii) survival rate classification using Spitz and Waterston scores. Data were presented as numerical sums and percentages. The frequency of anatomical types of EA in our cohort parallels that of the literature: 9.5% (8/84) type A, 9.5% (8/84) type B, 80% (67/84) type C, and 1% (1/84) type D. Long-gap EA accounts for 88% (7/8) type A, 75% (6/8) type B, and 13% (9/67) type C in the cohort studied. Our novel results show a nearly equal distribution of sex per each EA type, and gestational age (term-born vs. premature) by anatomical EA type. PRAm scoring showed a wider range of disease severity (3–9) than ASA scores (III and IV). The survival rate in our EA cohort dramatically increased in comparison to the literature in previous decades. This retrospective analysis at a single institution shows incidence of EA per sex and gestational status for anatomical types (EA type A-D) and by surgical approach (primary anastomosis vs. Foker process for short-gap vs. long-gap EA, respectively). Despite its wider range, PRAm score was not more useful in predicting disease severity in comparison to ASA score. Increased survival rates over the last decade suggest a potential need to assess unique operative and perioperative risks in this unique population of patients. Presented findings also represent a foundation for future clinical studies of outcomes in infants born with EA.

Pediatric surgical quality improvement in low- and middle-income countries: What data to collect?

BACKGROUND

As surgical access expands in low- and middle-income countries, risk-adjusted outcomes data are needed to measure and improve surgical quality. Existing data collection tools in high-income countries are complex and may be burdensome to implement in low and middle income countries. This study determined the minimum dataset needed for adequate risk adjustment to predict perioperative mortality using data collected in a low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

All patients admitted to the pediatric surgery ward at Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda, from January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2018 were included. Studies were performed modelling the effects of reducing data granularity and reducing number of variables on the area under the receiver operating curve.

RESULTS

Of the 3,194 patients included, 1,941(61%) were male, 957(30%) were neonates, 1,714 (54%) had an operation, and the overall mortality rate was 14%. Granularity reduction analyses found that measuring age in ranges was equivalent to recording age in days (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.776; 95% confidence interval, 0.754%-0.798%, vs 0.815, 95% confidence interval, 0.794%-0.837%). Variable reduction analyses found that models with 3 predictor variables (diagnosis, procedure, and district) reached a maximum area under the receiver operating curve of 0.915 (95% confidence interval, 0.903%-0.928%), which was equivalent to the model using all available predictor variables (area under the receiver operating curve = 0.932; 95% confidence interval, 0.922%-0.943%). For all 3-variable models, the primary diagnosis contributed most to predictive ability (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Effective risk adjustment for perioperative mortality can be performed in low and middle income countries using minimal, objective variables often already part of the patient's medical record. This approach can be used by clinicians, hospital administrators, and policymakers low- and middle-income countries looking to begin data collection to track and improve patient outcomes.

Life-Threatening Bleeding in Children: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of our study was to describe children with life-threatening bleeding.

DESIGN

We conducted a prospective observational study of children with life-threatening bleeding events.

SETTING

Twenty-four childrens hospitals in the United States, Canada, and Italy participated.

SUBJECTS

Children 0-17 years old who received greater than 40 mL/kg total blood products over 6 hours or were transfused under massive transfusion protocol were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Children were compared according bleeding etiology: trauma, operative, or medical.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Patient characteristics, therapies administered, and clinical outcomes were analyzed. Among 449 enrolled children, 55.0% were male, and the median age was 7.3 years. Bleeding etiology was 46.1% trauma, 34.1% operative, and 19.8% medical. Prior to the life-threatening bleeding event, most had age-adjusted hypotension (61.2%), and 25% were hypothermic. Children with medical bleeding had higher median Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores (18) compared with children with trauma (11) and operative bleeding (12). Median Glasgow Coma Scale scores were lower for children with trauma (3) compared with operative (14) or medical bleeding (10.5). Median time from bleeding onset to first transfusion was 8 minutes for RBCs, 34 minutes for plasma, and 42 minutes for platelets. Postevent acute respiratory distress syndrome (20.3%) and acute kidney injury (18.5%) were common. Twenty-eight-day mortality was 37.5% and higher among children with medical bleeding (65.2%) compared with trauma (36.1%) and operative (23.8%). There were 82 hemorrhage deaths; 65.8% occurred by 6 hours and 86.5% by 24 hours.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient characteristics and outcomes among children with life-threatening bleeding varied by cause of bleeding. Mortality was high, and death from hemorrhage in this population occurred rapidly.

Outcomes of Laparoscopic Versus Open Resection of Meckel's Diverticulum

BACKGROUND

Meckel's Diverticulum (MD) is a common congenital anomaly accounting for half of pediatric gastrointestinal bleeds. No large-scale studies exist comparing open and laparoscopic surgery and conversion rates remain high. We sought to compare postoperative outcomes associated with each approach and to determine risk factors for conversion.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

NSQIP-Pediatric was used to identify patients who underwent a MD resection from 2012 to 2018. Outcomes between patients treated with a laparoscopic versus open versus laparoscopic converted to open (LCO) surgery were compared. Chi-square tests and adjusted logistic regression analysis were used to determine significance and factors associated with conversion.

RESULTS

Six hundred eighty-one patients were identified, 295 (43.3%) underwent open, 267 (39.2%) laparoscopic, and 119 (17.5%) LCO resection. Patients undergoing laparoscopic compared to open procedures had shorter length of stay (LOS; 3 versus 4, P= 0.009), and similar morbidities (10.5% versus 16.6%, P= 0.164) and operative times (71.6 versus 76.6 mins, P= 0.449) on adjusted analysis. Patients with LCO compared to open procedures had similar LOS (4 versus 4, P= 0.334) and morbidities (14.3% versus 16.6%, P= 0.358), but longer operative times (90.1 versus 76.6 mins, P= 0.002) on adjusted analysis. Patients with laparoscopic and LCO procedures had fewer unplanned intubations compared to open procedures (0.0% versus 0.0% versus 2.4%, P= 0.011) and lower mortality (0.0% versus 0.0% versus 1.7%, P= 0.046) on univariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Laparoscopic MD resection has shorter LOS and similar complications and operative time compared to an open approach while LCO resection increases operative time but not LOS or morbidities.

Trends in mortality rate in patients with congenital heart disease undergoing noncardiac surgical procedures at children's hospitals

Advances made in pediatric cardiology, cardiac surgery and critical care have significantly improved the survival rate of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) leading to an increase in children with CHD presenting for noncardiac surgical procedures. This study aims (1) to describe the trend and perioperative mortality rates in patients with CHD undergoing noncardiac surgical procedures at children's hospitals over the past 5 years and (2) to describe the patient characteristics and the most common type of surgical procedures. The Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS) is an administrative database that contains inpatient, observation, and outpatient surgical data from 52 freestanding children's hospitals. Thirty-nine of the 52 hospitals submitted data on all types of patient encounters for the duration of the study from 2015 to 2019. The total numbers of non-cardiac surgical encounters among patients with history of a CHD diagnosis significantly increased each year from 38,272 in 2015 to 45,993 in 2019 (P < 0.001). Despite the increase in case numbers, there has been a significant decline in mortality rates to the most recent incidence of 1.06% in 2019. Careful patient selection and medical optimization of patients aligned with specific expertise at dedicated children's hospitals may lead to improvement in mortality rate. Future studies comparing the outcomes of patients with cardiac disease based on hospital type and volume as well as type of providers may help determine the future of care including potential need for regionalization of noncardiac care for this vulnerable patient population.

Best practice & research clinical anesthesiology: Safety and quality in perioperative anesthesia care. Update on safety in pediatric anesthesia

Pediatric anesthesia is large part of anesthesia clinical practice. Children, parents and anesthesiologists fear anesthesia because of the risk of acute morbidity and mortality. Modern anesthesia in otherwise healthy children above 1 year of age in developed countries has become very safe due to recent advance in pharmacology, intensive education, and training as well as centralization of care. In contrast, anesthesia in these children in low-income countries is associated with a high risk of mortality due to lack of basic resources and adequate training of health care providers. Anesthesia for neonates and toddlers is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Anesthesia-related (near) critical incidents occur in 5% of anesthetic procedures and are largely dependent on the skills and up-to-date knowledge of the whole perioperative team in the specific needs for children. An investment in continuous medical education of the perioperative staff is required and international standard operating protocols for common procedures and critical situations should be defined.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Morbidity in Pediatric Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery: An Institutional Experience

BACKGROUND

Utilizing the intrinsic surgical risk (ISR) and the patient's chronic and acute conditions, this study aims to develop and validate a comprehensive predictive model of perioperative morbidity in children undergoing noncardiac surgery.

METHODS

Following institutional review board (IRB) approval at a tertiary care children's hospital, data for all noncardiac surgical encounters for a derivation dataset from July 2017 to December 2018 including 16,724 cases and for a validation dataset from January 2019 to December 2019 including 9043 cases were collected retrospectively. The primary outcome was a composite morbidity score defined by unplanned transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU), acute respiratory failure requiring intubation, postoperative need for noninvasive or invasive positive pressure ventilation, or cardiac arrest. Internal model validation was performed using 1000 bootstrap resamples, and external validation was performed using the 2019 validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 1519 surgical cases (9.1%) experienced the defined composite morbidity. Using multivariable logistic regression, the Risk Assessment of Morbidity in Pediatric Surgery (RAMPS) score was developed with very good predictive ability in the derivation cohort (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.805; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.795-0.816), very good internal validity using 1000 bootstrap resamples (bias-corrected Nagelkerke R = 0.21 and Brier score = 0.07), and good external validity (AUC = 0.783; 95% CI, 0.770-0.797). The included variables are age <5 years, critically ill, chronic condition indicator (CCI) ≥3, significant CCI ≥2, and ISR quartile ≥3. The RAMPS score ranges from 0 to 10, with the risk of composite morbidity ranging from 1.8% to 42.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The RAMPS score provides the ability to identify a high-risk cohort of pediatric patients using a 5-component tool, and it demonstrated good internal and external validity and generalizability. It also provides an opportunity to improve perioperative planning with the intent of improving both individual-patient outcomes and the appropriate allocation of health care resources.

Integration of the Intrinsic Surgical Risk With Patient Comorbidities and Severity of Congenital Cardiac Disease Does Not Improve Risk Stratification in Children Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to estimate the surgical risk of noncardiac procedures on the incidence of 30-day mortality in children with congenital heart disease.

METHODS

Children with congenital heart disease undergoing noncardiac surgery from 2012 to 2016 and included in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Pediatric database were included in the derivation cohort, while the 2017 database was used as a validation cohort. Intrinsic surgical risk quartiles were built utilizing 30-day mortality rates for each Current Procedural Terminology code and relative value units to create 2 groups defined as low surgical risk (quartiles 1-3) and high surgical risk procedures (quartile 4). We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the predictors for 30-day mortality including patient comorbidities and intrinsic surgical risk. A partially external validation of the model was performed using the 2017 version of the database.

RESULTS

We included 37,658 children with congenital heart disease undergoing noncardiac surgery with an incidence of overall 30-day mortality of 1.7% in the derivation cohort and 1.5% in the validation cohort (n = 13,129). Intrinsic surgical risk of procedures represented by Current Procedural Terminology procedural codes and relative value units risk quartiles was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted P < .001). Predicted probability of 30-day mortality ranges from 0.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2-0.2) with no comorbidities to 39.6% (95% CI, 23.2-56.0) when all comorbidities were present among high surgical risk procedures and from 0.3% (95% CI, 0.3-0.3) to 54.8% (95% CI, 39.4-70.1) among low surgical risk procedures. An excellent discrimination was reported for the multivariable model with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85-0.88). High surgical risk was not associated with increased odds of 30-day mortality after adjustment for all other predictors (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.75, 95% CI, 0.62-0.91). We also estimated the discriminative ability of a model that does not include the surgical risk (0.86 [95% CI, 0.84-0.88], with P value for the direct comparison of the AUC of the 2 models = 0.831). The multivariable model obtained from an external validation cohort reported an optimism corrected AUC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that integration of intrinsic surgical risk to comorbidities and severity of cardiac disease does not improve prediction of 30-day mortality in children undergoing noncardiac surgery. In children with congenital heart disease, patient comorbidities, and severity of the cardiac lesion are the predominant predictors of 30-day mortality.