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Fitzmaurice C, Allen C, Barber RM, Barregard L, Bhutta ZA, Brenner H, Dicker DJ, Chimed-Orchir O, Dandona R, Dandona L, Fleming T, Forouzanfar MH, Hancock J, Hay RJ, Hunter-Merrill R, Huynh C, Hosgood HD, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Khubchandani J, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Lan Q, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Lopez AD, MacIntyre MF, Marczak L, Marquez N, Mokdad AH, Pinho C, Pourmalek F, Salomon JA, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Sartorius B, Schwartz SM, Shackelford KA, Shibuya K, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Sun J, Takahashi K, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Westerman R, Zeeb H, Zoeckler L, Abd-Allah F, Ahmed MB, Alabed S, Alam NK, Aldhahri SF, Alem G, Alemayohu MA, Ali R, Al-Raddadi R, Amare A, Amoako Y, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Atnafu N, Awasthi A, Saleem HB, Barac A, Bedi N, Bensenor I, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu B, Binagwaho A, Boneya D, Campos-Nonato I, Castañeda-Orjuela C, Catalá-López F, Chiang P, Chibueze C, Chitheer A, Choi JY, Cowie B, Damtew S, das Neves J, Dey S, Dharmaratne S, Dhillon P, Ding E, Driscoll T, Ekwueme D, Endries AY, Farvid M, Farzadfar F, Fernandes J, Fischer F, G/Hiwot TT, Gebru A, Gopalani S, Hailu A, Horino M, Horita N, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Inoue M, Islami F, Jakovljevic M, James S, Javanbakht M, Jee SH, Kasaeian A, Kedir MS, Khader YS, Khang YH, Kim D, Leigh J, Linn S, Lunevicius R, El Razek HMA, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Markos D, Melaku YA, Meles KG, Mendoza W, Mengiste DT, Meretoja TJ, Miller TR, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Moradi-Lakeh M, Nagel G, Nand D, Le Nguyen Q, Nolte S, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji KE, Oren E, Pa M, Park EK, Pereira DM, Plass D, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahman M, Rana SM, Søreide K, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, She J, Shiue I, Shore HR, Shrime MG, So S, Soneji S, Stathopoulou V, Stroumpoulis K, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadese F, Tedla BA, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Tran BX, Ukwaja KN, Uzochukwu BSC, Vlassov VV, Weiderpass E, Wubshet Terefe M, Yebyo HG, Yimam HH, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zenebe ZM, Murray CJL, Naghavi M. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol 2017; 3:524-548. [PMID: 27918777 PMCID: PMC6103527 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2797] [Impact Index Per Article: 399.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christina Fitzmaurice
- Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle2Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christine Allen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ryan M Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Daniel J Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Tom Fleming
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jamie Hancock
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Roderick J Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England
| | | | - Chantal Huynh
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - H Dean Hosgood
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Global Health Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, New York
| | - Catherine O Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | | | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | - Michael Kutz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Qing Lan
- National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Heidi J Larson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England
| | - Xiaofeng Liang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alan D Lopez
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Michael F MacIntyre
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Laurie Marczak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Neal Marquez
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christine Pinho
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Joshua A Salomon
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | | | - Logan Sandar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Katya A Shackelford
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jeff Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Caitlyn Steiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jiandong Sun
- Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ken Takahashi
- University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joseph A Wagner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Hajo Zeeb
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany
| | - Leo Zoeckler
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Muktar Beshir Ahmed
- College of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Samer Alabed
- College of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, England
| | - Noore K Alam
- Queensland Health Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Saleh Fahed Aldhahri
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Girma Alem
- Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
| | | | - Raghib Ali
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Rajaa Al-Raddadi
- Public Health Directorate, Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jeddah, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Azmeraw Amare
- School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia37Bahir Dar University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Yaw Amoako
- Department of Medicine, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital Ghana, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Al Artaman
- Department of Community Health Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Hamid Asayesh
- Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Niguse Atnafu
- College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Department of Nursing, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia
| | - Ashish Awasthi
- Department of Biostatistics, Nayati Multi Super Speciality Hospital, Mathura, India
| | - Huda Ba Saleem
- Department of Community Medicine, Aden Cancer Registry, and Research Center Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Aden University, Aden, Yemen
| | - Aleksandra Barac
- Clinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Clinical Center of Serbia, Faculty of Medicine University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Neeraj Bedi
- Department of Epidemiology, Tropical Disease Unit, College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | - Isabela Bensenor
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of São Paul, São Paul, Brazil
| | - Adugnaw Berhane
- College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia)
| | - Eduardo Bernabé
- Division of Population and Patient Health, King's College London Dental Institute, London, England
| | | | - Agnes Binagwaho
- University of Global Health Equit, Kigali, Rwanda51Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Dube Boneya
- Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain55Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Peggy Chiang
- Clinical Governance Unit, Gold Coast Health, Southport, Queensland, Australia
| | - Chioma Chibueze
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Benjamin Cowie
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Solomon Damtew
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia)
| | - José das Neves
- i3S-Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Suhojit Dey
- Indian Institute of Public Health-Delhi, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, India
| | - Samath Dharmaratne
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - Preet Dhillon
- Centre for Chronic Conditions and Injuries, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, India
| | - Eric Ding
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Tim Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Donatus Ekwueme
- Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Maryam Farvid
- Department of Nutrition, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts71Harvard/MGH Center on Genomics, Vulnerable Populations, and Health Disparities, Mongan Institute for Health Policy, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Joao Fernandes
- Center for Biotechnology and Fine Chemistry-Associate Laboratory, Faculty of Biotechnology, Catholic University of Portugal, Porto, Portugal
| | | | | | | | - Sameer Gopalani
- Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Federated States of Micronesia
| | | | - Masako Horino
- Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health, Carson City
| | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Abdullatif Husseini
- Institute of Community and Public Health, Birzeit University, Birzeit, Palestine
| | | | | | - Farhad Islami
- Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Spencer James
- Emergency Medicine, Denver Health/University of Colorado, Denver
| | - Mehdi Javanbakht
- Health Economics Group, Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England
| | | | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Muktar Sano Kedir
- Department of Pharmacy, College of Health Sciences, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia
| | - Yousef S Khader
- Department of Community Medicine, Public Health and Family Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology Irbid, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea92Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Science, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - James Leigh
- Asbestos Disease Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Shai Linn
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Social Welfare and Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
| | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Fars, Iran
| | | | - Wagner Marcenes
- Division of Population and Patient Health, King's College London Dental Institute, London, England
| | - Desalegn Markos
- College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Assela, Ethiopia
| | | | - Kidanu G Meles
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Health Science, School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Comprehensive Cancer Center, Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland105Center for Population Health Research, The Curtin University, Calverton, Maryland
| | - Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
- Faculty of Education, Ishik University, Erbil, Iraq107Faculty of Education, University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq
| | - Alireza Mohammadi
- Neuroscience Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Department of Community Medicine, Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | | | - Felix A Ogbo
- Centre for Health Research, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
| | - Kelechi E Oladimeji
- Department of Public Health Medicine, College of Health Science, Howard College Campus, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Eyal Oren
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health University of Arizona, Tucson
| | - Mahesh Pa
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, JSS Medical College, JSS University, Mysore, India
| | | | | | - Dietrich Plass
- Department of Environmental Hygiene, German Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Amir Radfar
- College of Graduate Heath Study, A. T. Still University, Kirksville, Missouri
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore Pakistan
| | | | | | - Kjetil Søreide
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway128Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma Centre, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Monika Sawhney
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Professions, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Jun She
- Fudan University Shanghai, China
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England
| | - Hirbo Roba Shore
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Mark G Shrime
- Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Samuel So
- Asian Liver Center, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
| | - Samir Soneji
- The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, New Hampshire139Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Dartmouth Medical School, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, New Hampshire
| | | | | | | | - Bryan L Sykes
- Department of Criminology, Law & Society, University of California Irvine, Irvine
| | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
| | - Fentaw Tadese
- Department of Public Health, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | | | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia147School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - J S Thakur
- Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | | | | | | | | | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Department of Research, Group of Etiological Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo154Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden155Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland156Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Mamo Wubshet Terefe
- Department of Public Health, St. Paul's Hospital Millenium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Mustafa Z Younis
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi
| | | | - Zoubida Zaidi
- Department of Epidemiology, University Hospital of Setif, Algeria
| | | | | | | | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
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