Epidemiology of influenza A 2009 H1N1 virus pandemic in the U.S

The impact of lockdown strategies on the basic reproductive number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Saudi Arabia

Background & Objectives

In late December 2019, an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS COV-2) occurred in the city of Wuhan, the capital of the Hubei province in the central part of the People’s Republic of China (Ren et al., 2020). In Saudi Arabia, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in March 2, 2020. In March 8, 2020, the Saudi authorities adopted the lockdown strategy to contain the disease. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the various phases of the lockdown strategy in Saudi Arabia and its impact on the basic reproductive number (R0) of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Material and Methods

The timeline of the COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia was divided into three-time intervals. Google Mobility Community Reports (2020) was used to estimate the changes in community mobility during the various phases of the lockdown. The basic reproductive number (R0) of the COVID-19 outbreak was calculated daily using the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) model based on the Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH) daily reports. This is a standard system to determine the spread of the virus on the basis of infection rate, quarantine rate as well as confirmation rate. The mean values of the calculated R0 during each interval were compared using one-way ANOVA test.

Results

There was no statistically significant difference between the mean values of the different phases of the lockdown (P > 0.05). Moreover, mean R0 value of the second interval was 0.09 higher than the initial interval with free community mobility. Furthermore, the mean R0 values of the third interval with the full lockdown was 0.28 higher than the initial interval.

Conclusion

Early implementation of lockdown strategy combined with other social distancing strategies help in containing infectious outbreaks in their early phases. Continuous assessment of such strategies’ effectiveness provides decision makers with precious information needed to justify their application when considering their economic impact.

A quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in the Menoufia governorate, Egypt

BACKGROUND

The poultry industry in Egypt has been suffering from endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 since 2006. However, the emergence of H9N2, H5N8, and H5N2 in 2011, 2016, and 2019 respectively, has aggravated the situation. Our objective was to evaluate how effective are the mitigation strategies by a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model which used daily outbreak data of HPAI-H5N1 subtype in Egypt, stratified by different successive epidemic waves from 2006 to 2016.

RESULTS

By applying the epidemiologic problem-oriented approach methodology, a conceptual scenario tree was drawn based on the knowledgebase. Monte Carlo simulations of QRA parameters based on outbreak data were performed using @Risk software based on a scenario-driven decision tree. In poultry farms, the expected probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence is 48% due to failure of mitigation strategies in 90% of the time during Monte Carlo simulations. Failure of efficacy of these mitigations will raise prevalence to 70% with missed vaccination, while failure in detection by surveillance activities will raise it to 99%. In backyard poultry farms, the likelihood of still having a high HPAI-H5N1 prevalence in different poultry types due to failure of passive and active surveillance varies between domestic, mixed and reservoir. In mixed poultry, the probability of HPAI-H5N1 not detected by surveillance was the highest with a mean and a SD of 16.8 × 10-3 and 3.26 × 10-01 respectively. The sensitivity analysis ranking for the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 in poultry farms due to missed vaccination, failure to be detected by passive and active surveillance was examined. Among poultry farms, increasing vaccination by 1 SD will decrease the prevalence by 14%, while active and passive surveillance decreases prevalence by 12, and 6%, respectively. In backyard, the active surveillance had high impact in decreasing the prevalence by 16% in domestic chicken. Whereas the passive surveillance had less impact in decreasing prevalence by 14% in mixed poultry and 3% in domestic chicken.

CONCLUSION

It could be concluded that the applied strategies were not effective in controlling the spread of the HPAI-H5N1 virus. Public health officials should take into consideration the evaluation of their control strategies in their response.

Protective efficacy of mucosal and subcutaneous immunization with DnaJ-ΔA146Ply against influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae co-infection in mice

Respiratory tract coinfections, specifically involving influenza A virus (IAV) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae), remain a major health problem worldwide. Secondary bacterial pneumonia is a common complication and an important cause of mortality related to seasonal and pandemic influenza infections. Vaccination is a basic control strategy against influenza and S. pneumoniae. The fusion protein DnaJ-ΔA146Ply is a vaccine candidate which can induce immune responses against pneumococcal infections via mucosal and subcutaneous immunization in mice. In the present study, we established a co-infection model using mouse-adapted laboratory strains of IAV (PR8) and S. pneumoniae (19F) in mice intranasally and subcutaneously immunized with DnaJ-ΔA146Ply. Our results showed that vaccinated mice suffered decreased weight loss compared with control mice. The survival rates were higher in intranasally and subcutaneously immunized mice than in control mice. In addition, the bacterial loads in nasal washes and lung homogenates were lower in vaccinated mice than in control mice. Furthermore, lung damage was alleviated in vaccinated mice compared with control mice, with less broken alveoli and less proinflammatory cytokine production. Taken together, these results indicate that vaccination with DnaJ-ΔA146Ply shows protective potential against influenza and S. pneumoniae co-infection in mice.

Case fatality risk of influenza A (H1N1pdm09): a systematic review

BACKGROUND

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, uncertainty surrounding the seriousness of human infections with the H1N1pdm09 virus hindered appropriate public health response. One measure of seriousness is the case fatality risk, defined as the probability of mortality among people classified as cases.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of the case fatality risk of the pandemic influenza H1N1pdm09 virus. Only studies that reported population-based estimates were included.

RESULTS

We included 77 estimates of the case fatality risk from 50 published studies, about one-third of which were published within the first 9 months of the pandemic. We identified very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates, ranging from less than 1 to more than 10,000 deaths per 100,000 cases or infections. The choice of case definition in the denominator accounted for substantial heterogeneity, with the higher estimates based on laboratory-confirmed cases (point estimates = 0-13,500 per 100,000 cases) compared with symptomatic cases (point estimates = 0-1,200 per 100,000 cases) or infections (point estimates = 1-10 per 100,000 infections). Risk based on symptomatic cases increased substantially with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights the difficulty in estimating the seriousness of infection with a novel influenza virus using the case fatality risk. In addition, substantial variability in age-specific estimates complicates the interpretation of the overall case fatality risk and comparisons among populations. A consensus is needed on how to define and measure the seriousness of infection before the next pandemic.

Challenges faced by public health nursing leaders in hyperturbulent times

OBJECTIVE

This study discusses the challenges and characteristics of effective public health nursing leaders in local health departments and barriers to effective leadership during the hyperturbulent conditions of 2008-2010.

DESIGN AND SAMPLE

Participants were drawn from a purposive sample of seven directors of nursing (DON) in six county LHDs in two states for this qualitative study using inductive methods.

MEASURES

Semistructured telephone interviews were conducted, using open-ended questions. Data analysis consisted of coding, pattern identification, and theme development, assisted by the use of ATLAS.ti™. Credibility was achieved through intercoder agreement and resonance of the findings with participants.

RESULTS

Two underlying challenges emerged: leadership dissonance and leading through ambiguity. Three key effective leadership attributes identified were as follows: collaborative change management, life-long learning, and being visionary. DONs identified extrinsic and intrinsic barriers to leadership effectiveness and leading change in public health systems and PHN practice.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest ways to support PHN leaders in order to overcome barriers to effective leadership such as defined leadership competencies, continuing education, and mentorship opportunities.