On the quarantine period for ebola virus

A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Outbreak Response Immunization Programs

The impact of outbreak response immunization (ORI) can be estimated by comparing observed outcomes to modelled counterfactual scenarios without ORI, but the most appropriate metrics depend on stakeholder needs and data availability. This study developed a framework for using mathematical models to assess the impact of ORI for vaccine-preventable diseases. Framework development involved (1) the assessment of impact metrics based on stakeholder interviews and literature reviews determining data availability and capacity to capture as model outcomes; (2) mapping investment in ORI elements to model parameters to define scenarios; (3) developing a system for engaging stakeholders and formulating model questions, performing analyses, and interpreting results; and (4) example applications for different settings and pathogens. The metrics identified as most useful were health impacts, economic impacts, and the risk of severe outbreaks. Scenario categories included investment in the response scale, response speed, and vaccine targeting. The framework defines four phases: (1) problem framing and data sourcing (identification of stakeholder needs, metrics, and scenarios); (2) model choice; (3) model implementation; and (4) interpretation and communication. The use of the framework is demonstrated by application to two outbreaks, measles in Papua New Guinea and Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The framework is a systematic way to engage with stakeholders and ensure that an analysis is fit for purpose, makes the best use of available data, and uses suitable modelling methodology.

"Low-risk groups" deserve more attention than "high-risk groups" in imported COVID-19 cases

Objective

To estimate the optimal quarantine period for inbound travelers and identify key risk factors to provide scientific reference for emerging infectious diseases.

Methods

A parametric survival analysis model was used to calculate the time interval between entry and first positive nucleic acid test of imported cases in Guangzhou, to identify the influencing factors. And the COVID-19 epidemic risk prediction model based on multiple risk factors among inbound travelers was constructed.

Results

The approximate 95th percentile of the time interval was 14 days. Multivariate analysis found that the mean time interval for inbound travelers in entry/exit high-risk occupations was 29% shorter (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.46, p < 0.0001) than that of low-risk occupations, those from Africa were 37% shorter (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.78, p = 0.01) than those from Asia, those who were fully vaccinated were 1.88 times higher (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.13-3.12, p = 0.01) than that of those who were unvaccinated, and those in other VOC periods were lower than in the Delta period. Decision tree analysis showed that a combined entry/exit low-risk occupation group with Delta period could create a high indigenous epidemic risk by 0.24.

Conclusion

Different strata of imported cases can result in varying degrees of risk of indigenous outbreaks. "low-risk groups" with entry/exit low-risk occupations, fully vaccinated, or from Asia deserve more attention than "high-risk groups."

Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2

Background: The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study has provided unbiased estimates of swab-positivity in England approximately monthly since May 2020 using RT-PCR testing of self-administered throat and nose swabs. However, estimating infection incidence requires an understanding of the persistence of RT-PCR swab-positivity in the community. Methods: During round 8 of REACT-1 from 6 January to 22 January 2021, we collected up to two additional swabs from 896 initially RT-PCR positive individuals approximately 6 and 9 days after their initial swab. Results: Test sensitivity and duration of positivity were estimated using an exponential decay model, for all participants and for subsets by initial N-gene cycle threshold (Ct) value, symptom status, lineage and age. A P-spline model was used to estimate infection incidence for the entire duration of the REACT-1 study. REACT-1 test sensitivity was estimated at 0.79 (0.77, 0.81) with median duration of positivity at 9.7 (8.9, 10.6) days. We found greater duration of positivity in those exhibiting symptoms, with low N-gene Ct values, or infected with the Alpha variant. Test sensitivity was found to be higher for those who were pre-symptomatic or with low N-gene Ct values. Compared to swab-positivity, our estimates of infection incidence included sharper features with evident transient increases around the time of changes in social distancing measures. Conclusions: These results validate previous efforts to estimate incidence of SARS-CoV-2 from swab-positivity data and provide a reliable means to obtain community infection estimates to inform policy response.

Advances and insights in the diagnosis of viral infections

Viral infections are the most common among diseases that globally require around 60 percent of medical care. However, in the heat of the pandemic, there was a lack of medical equipment and inpatient facilities to provide all patients with viral infections. The detection of viral infections is possible in three general ways such as (i) direct virus detection, which is performed immediately 1-3 days after the infection, (ii) determination of antibodies against some virus proteins mainly observed during/after virus incubation period, (iii) detection of virus-induced disease when specific tissue changes in the organism. This review surveys some global pandemics from 1889 to 2020, virus types, which induced these pandemics, and symptoms of some viral diseases. Non-analytical methods such as radiology and microscopy also are overviewed. This review overlooks molecular analysis methods such as nucleic acid amplification, antibody-antigen complex determination, CRISPR-Cas system-based viral genome determination methods. Methods widely used in the certificated diagnostic laboratory for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, B, C, HIV, and other viruses during a viral pandemic are outlined. A comprehensive overview of molecular analytical methods has shown that the assay's sensitivity, accuracy, and suitability for virus detection depends on the choice of the number of regions in the viral open reading frame (ORF) genome sequence and the validity of the selected analytical method.

Investigating the impact of quarantine on mental health: insights from the COVID-19 international border surveillance study in Canada

BACKGROUND

Nations throughout the world are imposing mandatory quarantine on those entering the country. Although such measures may be effective in reducing the importation of COVID-19, the mental health implications remain unclear.

AIMS

This study sought to assess mental well-being and factors associated with changes in mental health in individuals subject to mandatory quarantine following travel.

METHOD

Travellers arriving at a large, urban international airport completed online questionnaires on arrival and days 7 and 14 of mandated quarantine. Questionnaire items, such as travel history, mental health, attitudes toward COVID-19, and protection behaviours, were drawn from the World Health Organization Survey Tool for COVID-19.

RESULTS

There was a clinically significant decline in mental health over the course of quarantine among the 10 965 eligible participants. Poor mental health was reported by 5.1% of participants on arrival and 26% on day 7 of quarantine. Factors associated with a greater decline in mental health were younger age, female gender, negative views toward quarantine measures and engaging in fewer COVID-19 prevention behaviours. For instance, travellers who stated that they rarely wore masks had nearly three times higher odds of developing poor mental health.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the widespread use of quarantine may be effective in limiting the spread of COVID-19, the mental health implications are profound and have largely been ignored in policy decisions. Psychiatry has a role to play in contributing to the public policy debate to ensure that all aspects of health and well-being are reflected in decisions to isolate people from others.

Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases in human communities. This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of the quarantine of individuals suspected of being exposed to disease on the spread of the 2014-2015 outbreaks of Ebola viral disease. It is assumed that quarantine is imperfect (i.e., individuals can acquire infection during quarantine). In the absence of quarantine, the model is shown to exhibit global dynamics with respect to the disease-free and its unique endemic equilibrium when a certain epidemiological threshold (denoted byR 0 ) is either less than or greater than unity. Thus, unlike the full model with imperfect quarantine (which is known to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation), the version of the model with no quarantine does not undergo a backward bifurcation. Using data relevant to the 2014-2015 Ebola transmission dynamics in the three West African countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), uncertainty analysis of the model show that, although the current level and effectiveness of quarantine can lead to significant reduction in disease burden, they fail to bring the associated quarantine reproduction number (R 0 Q ) to a value less than unity (which is needed to make effective disease control or elimination feasible). This reduction ofR 0 Q is, however, very possible with a modest increase in quarantine rate and effectiveness. It is further shown, via sensitivity analysis, that the parameters related to the effectiveness of quarantine (namely the parameter associated with the reduction in infectiousness of infected quarantined individuals and the contact rate during quarantine) are the main drivers of the disease transmission dynamics. Overall, this study shows that the singular implementation of a quarantine intervention strategy can lead to the effective control or elimination of Ebola viral disease in a community if its coverage and effectiveness levels are high enough.

Constructing Ebola transmission chains from West Africa and estimating model parameters using internet sources

During the recent Ebola crisis in West Africa, individual person-level details of disease onset, transmissions, and outcomes such as survival or death were reported in online news media. We set out to document disease transmission chains for Ebola, with the goal of generating a timely account that could be used for surveillance, mathematical modeling, and public health decision-making. By accessing public web pages only, such as locally produced newspapers and blogs, we created a transmission chain involving two Ebola clusters in West Africa that compared favorably with other published transmission chains, and derived parameters for a mathematical model of Ebola disease transmission that were not statistically different from those derived from published sources. We present a protocol for responsibly gleaning epidemiological facts, transmission model parameters, and useful details from affected communities using mostly indigenously produced sources. After comparing our transmission parameters to published parameters, we discuss additional benefits of our method, such as gaining practical information about the affected community, its infrastructure, politics, and culture. We also briefly compare our method to similar efforts that used mostly non-indigenous online sources to generate epidemiological information.

[Ebola virus disease: Update]

The first known Ebola outbreak occurred in 1976. Since then, 24 limited outbreaks had been reported in Central Africa, but never affecting more than 425 persons. The current outbreak in Western Africa is the largest in history with 28,220 reported cases and 11,291 deaths. The magnitude of the epidemic has caused worldwide alarm. For the first time, evacuated patients were treated outside Africa, and secondary cases have occurred in Spain and the United States. Since the start of the current epidemic, our knowledge about the epidemiology, clinical picture, laboratory findings, and virology of Ebola virus disease has considerably expanded. For the first time, experimental treatment has been tried, and there have been spectacular advances in vaccine development. A review is presented of these advances in the knowledge of Ebola virus disease.