1
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Ngonghala CN, Enright H, Prosper O, Zhao R. Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics and economic growth. Math Biosci 2024; 372:109189. [PMID: 38580079 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 03/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
The mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity in many countries. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. It uncovers varied effects of malaria and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (R0) on both malaria and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. The study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in an equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even when R0 is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations for effective malaria control from the study include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
| | - Hope Enright
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN 56001, USA
| | - Olivia Prosper
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37916, USA
| | - Ruijun Zhao
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN 56001, USA
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2
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de Souza WM, Weaver SC. Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases. Nat Rev Microbiol 2024:10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0. [PMID: 38486116 DOI: 10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M de Souza
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Scott C Weaver
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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3
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Morgan Bustamante BL, Fejerman L, May L, Martínez-López B. Community-acquired Staphylococcus aureus skin and soft tissue infection risk assessment using hotspot analysis and risk maps: the case of California emergency departments. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:123. [PMID: 38195461 PMCID: PMC10775506 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17336-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Community-acquired Staphylococcus aureus (CA-Sa) skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) are historically associated with densely populated urban areas experiencing high poverty rates, intravenous drug use, and homelessness. However, the epidemiology of CA-Sa SSTIs in the United States has been poorly understood since the plateau of the Community-acquired Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic in 2010. This study examines the spatial variation of CA-Sa SSTIs in a large, geographically heterogeneous population and identifies neighborhood characteristics associated with increased infection risk. METHODS Using a unique neighborhood boundary, California Medical Service Study Areas, a hotspot analysis, and estimates of neighborhood infection risk ratios were conducted for all CA-Sa SSTIs presented in non-Federal California emergency departments between 2016 and 2019. A Bayesian Poisson regression model evaluated the association between neighborhood-level infection risk and population structure, neighborhood poverty rates, and being a healthcare shortage area. RESULTS Emergency departments in more rural and mountainous parts of California experienced a higher burden of CA-Sa SSTIs between 2016 and 2019. Neighborhoods with high infection rates were more likely to have a high percentage of adults living below the federal poverty level and be a designated healthcare shortage area. Measures of population structure were not associated with infection risk in California neighborhoods. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlight a potential change in the epidemiology of CA-Sa SSTIs in California emergency departments. Future studies should investigate the CA-Sa burden in other geographies to identify whether this shift in epidemiology holds across other states and populations. Further, a more thorough evaluation of potential mechanisms for the clustering of infections seen across California neighborhoods is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brittany L Morgan Bustamante
- Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Veterinary Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
| | - Laura Fejerman
- Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Larissa May
- Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Beatriz Martínez-López
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Veterinary Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
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4
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Rohr JR, Sack A, Bakhoum S, Barrett CB, Lopez-Carr D, Chamberlin AJ, Civitello DJ, Diatta C, Doruska MJ, De Leo GA, Haggerty CJE, Jones IJ, Jouanard N, Lund AJ, Ly AT, Ndione RA, Remais JV, Riveau G, Schacht AM, Seck M, Senghor S, Sokolow SH, Wolfe C. A planetary health innovation for disease, food and water challenges in Africa. Nature 2023:10.1038/s41586-023-06313-z. [PMID: 37438520 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06313-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
Many communities in low- and middle-income countries globally lack sustainable, cost-effective and mutually beneficial solutions for infectious disease, food, water and poverty challenges, despite their inherent interdependence1-7. Here we provide support for the hypothesis that agricultural development and fertilizer use in West Africa increase the burden of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis by fuelling the growth of submerged aquatic vegetation that chokes out water access points and serves as habitat for freshwater snails that transmit Schistosoma parasites to more than 200 million people globally8-10. In a cluster randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03187366) in which we removed invasive submerged vegetation from water points at 8 of 16 villages (that is, clusters), control sites had 1.46 times higher intestinal Schistosoma infection rates in schoolchildren and lower open water access than removal sites. Vegetation removal did not have any detectable long-term adverse effects on local water quality or freshwater biodiversity. In feeding trials, the removed vegetation was as effective as traditional livestock feed but 41 to 179 times cheaper and converting the vegetation to compost provided private crop production and total (public health plus crop production benefits) benefit-to-cost ratios as high as 4.0 and 8.8, respectively. Thus, the approach yielded an economic incentive-with important public health co-benefits-to maintain cleared waterways and return nutrients captured in aquatic plants back to agriculture with promise of breaking poverty-disease traps. To facilitate targeting and scaling of the intervention, we lay the foundation for using remote sensing technology to detect snail habitats. By offering a rare, profitable, win-win approach to addressing food and water access, poverty alleviation, infectious disease control and environmental sustainability, we hope to inspire the interdisciplinary search for planetary health solutions11 to the many and formidable, co-dependent global grand challenges of the twenty-first century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason R Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
| | - Alexandra Sack
- Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Sidy Bakhoum
- Department of Animal Biology, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Christopher B Barrett
- Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - David Lopez-Carr
- Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Andrew J Chamberlin
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Cledor Diatta
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Molly J Doruska
- Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Giulio A De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - Christopher J E Haggerty
- Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Isabel J Jones
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Nicolas Jouanard
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
- Station d'Innovation Aquacole, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Andrea J Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Colorado School of Public Health, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Amadou T Ly
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Raphael A Ndione
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Justin V Remais
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
- Université Lille, CNRS, INSERM, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1019-UMR 9017-CIIL-Center for Infection and Immunité of Lille, Lille, France
| | - Anne-Marie Schacht
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Momy Seck
- Station d'Innovation Aquacole, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Simon Senghor
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale Espoir pour la Santé, Saint-Louis, Senegal
| | - Susanne H Sokolow
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Caitlin Wolfe
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
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5
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Malik B, Hasan Farooqui H, Bhattacharyya S. Disparity in socio-economic status explains the pattern of self-medication of antibiotics in India: understanding from game-theoretic perspective. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:211872. [PMID: 35154800 PMCID: PMC8826305 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2022] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
The emergence of antimicrobial resistance has raised great concern for public health in many lower-income countries including India. Socio-economic determinants like poverty, health expenditure and awareness accelerate this emergence by influencing individuals' attitudes and healthcare practices such as self-medication. This self-medication practice is highly prevalent in many countries, where antibiotics are available without prescriptions. Thus, complex dynamics of drug- resistance driven by economy, human behaviour, and disease epidemiology poses a serious threat to the community, which has been less emphasized in prior studies. Here, we formulate a game-theoretic model of human choices in self-medication integrating economic growth and disease transmission processes. We show that this adaptive behaviour emerges spontaneously in the population through a self-reinforcing process and continual feedback from the economy, resulting in the emergence of resistance as externalities of human choice under resource constraints situations. We identify that the disparity between social-optimum and individual interest in self-medication is primarily driven by the effectiveness of treatment, health awareness and public health interventions. Frequent multiple-peaks of resistant strains are also observed when individuals imitate others more readily and self-medication is more likely. Our model exemplifies that timely public health intervention for financial risk protection, and antibiotic stewardship policies can improve the epidemiological situation and prevent economic collapse.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bhawna Malik
- Disease Modelling Lab, Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Greater Noida, India
| | - Habib Hasan Farooqui
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India
- College of Medicine, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Samit Bhattacharyya
- Disease Modelling Lab, Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Greater Noida, India
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6
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Maniyar CB, Kumar A, Mishra DR. Continuous and Synoptic Assessment of Indian Inland Waters for Harmful Algae Blooms. HARMFUL ALGAE 2022; 111:102160. [PMID: 35016766 DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2021.102160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2021] [Revised: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (CyanoHABs) are progressively becoming a major water quality, socioeconomic, and health hazard worldwide. In India, there are frequent episodes of severe CyanoHABs, which are left untreated due to a lack of awareness and monitoring infrastructure, affecting the economy of the country gravely. In this study, for the first time, we present a country-wide analysis of CyanoHABs in India by developing a novel interactive cloud-based dashboard called "CyanoKhoj" in Google Earth Engine (GEE) which uses Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) remotely sensed datasets. The main goal of this study was to showcase the utility of CyanoKhoj for rapid monitoring and discuss the widespread CyanoHABs problems across India. We demonstrate the utility of Cyanokhoj by including select case studies of lakes and reservoirs geographically spread across five states: Bargi and Gandhisagar Dams in Madhya Pradesh, Hirakud Reservoir in Odisha, Ukai Dam in Gujarat, Linganamakki Reservoir in Karnataka, and Pulicat Lake in Tamil Nadu. These sites were studied from September to November 2018 using CyanoKhoj, which is capable of near-real-time monitoring and country-wide assessment of CyanoHABs. We used CyanoKhoj to prepare spatiotemporal maps of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) content and Cyanobacterial Cell Density (CCD) to study the local spread of the CyanoHABs and their phenology in these waterbodies. A first-ever all-India CCD map is also presented for the year 2018, which highlights the spatial spread of CyanoHABs throughout the country (32 large waterbodies across India with severe bloom: CCD>2,500,000). Results indicate that CyanoHABs are most prevalent in nutrient-rich waterbodies prone to industrial and other nutrient-rich discharges. A clear temporal evolution of the blooms showed that they are dominant during the post-monsoon season (September-October) when the nutrient concentrations in the waterbodies are at their peak, and they begin to decline towards winter (November-December). CyanoKhoj is an open-source tool that can have a significant broader impact in mapping CyanoHABs not only throughout cyanobacteria data-scarce India, but on a global level using archived and future Sentinel-3A/B OLCI data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chintan B Maniyar
- Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Department, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS), ISRO, India; Department of Geography, University of Georgia, GA, USA
| | - Abhishek Kumar
- Department of Geography, University of Georgia, GA, USA; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA, USA.
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7
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Martcheva M, Tuncer N, Ngonghala CN. Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective. JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS 2021; 15:342-366. [PMID: 34182892 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 06/12/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maia Martcheva
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Necibe Tuncer
- Department of Mathematics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
| | - Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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8
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Xiang L, Tang M, Yin Z, Zheng M, Lu S. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Growth: Theory and Simulation. Front Public Health 2021; 9:741525. [PMID: 34604164 PMCID: PMC8484314 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.741525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound consequences on world economy. In order to explore the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic growth and the effects of different policy responses, this paper combines economic theory with epidemiological model to construct an interdisciplinary model, in which labor supply is dynamically constrained by pandemic conditions. Analysis of model equilibrium suggests that outbreaks of infectious disease reduce labor supply and negatively affect economic output. The accumulation of health capital can suppress the spread of disease and improve the recovery rate of infected individuals, which will alleviate the labor supply constraint caused by the pandemic and lead to an increase in output and consumption. The model is then calibrated to Chinese economy. The simulation results imply that government's public health policy can enhance the role of health capital in promoting economic growth. But the marginal effect of certain policies is diminishing. Therefore, the government needs to balance pandemic prevention and control costs and marginal benefits when formulating public health policies. When the pandemic is under control, the resumption of production is feasible and the economic stimulus package could lead to economic recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lijin Xiang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Mingli Tang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Zhichao Yin
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Mengmeng Zheng
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Shuang Lu
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
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9
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Jnawali K, Tyshenko MG, Oraby T. Mitigating the externality of diseases of poverty through health aid. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2021; 8:211450. [PMID: 34659788 PMCID: PMC8511770 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2021] [Accepted: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Externality exists in healthcare when an individual benefits from others being healthy as it reduces the probability of getting sick from illness. Healthy workers are considered to be the more productive labourers leading to a country's positive economic growth over time. Several research studies have modelled disease transmission and its economic impact on a single country in isolation. We developed a two-country disease-economy model that explores disease transmission and cross-border infection of disease for its impacts. The model includes aspects of a worsening and rapid transmission of disease juxtaposed by positive impacts to the economy from tourism. We found that high friction affects the gross domestic product (GDP) of the lower-income country more than the higher-income country. Health aid from one country to another can substantially help grow the GDP of both countries due to the positive externality of disease reduction. Disease has less impact to both economies if the relative cost of treatment over an alternative (e.g. vaccination) is lower than the baseline value. Providing medical supplies to another country, adopting moderate friction between the countries, and finding treatments with lower costs result in the best scenario to preserve the GDP of both countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamal Jnawali
- Department of Mathematics, State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego 13126-3599, NY, USA
| | | | - Tamer Oraby
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas—Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA
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10
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Yin Z, Chen X, Wang Z, Xiang L. Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis. Front Public Health 2021; 9:748041. [PMID: 34589466 PMCID: PMC8473739 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.748041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhichao Yin
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaoxu Chen
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
| | - Zongshu Wang
- Chow Yei Ching School of Graduate Studies, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR China
| | - Lijin Xiang
- School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China
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11
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Borgerson C, Fisher BL, Razafindrapaoly BN, Rasolofoniaina BJR, Randriamanetsy JM, Razafindrapaoly BL, Rajaona D, Herrera P, Van Itterbeeck J, Martinez KM, Aardema ML. A nutrient‐rich traditional insect for improving food security and reducing biodiversity loss in Madagascar and
sub‐Saharan
Africa. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Cortni Borgerson
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) Maroantsetra Madagascar
| | - Brian L. Fisher
- California Academy of the Sciences San Francisco California USA
- Madagascar Biodiversity Center Parc Botanique et Zoologique de Tsimbazaza Antananarivo Madagascar
| | | | | | | | | | - Delox Rajaona
- Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY) Maroantsetra Madagascar
| | - Patsy Herrera
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Department of Biology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
| | | | - Kenneth M. Martinez
- Department of Anthropology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
| | - Matthew L. Aardema
- Department of Biology Montclair State University Montclair New Jersey USA
- Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics American Museum of Natural History New York New York USA
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12
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann C. Miller
- Ann C. Miller and Matthew H. Bonds are with the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Blavatnik Institute at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, and the health care nongovernmental organization PIVOT, Ranomafana, Madagascar
| | - Matthew H. Bonds
- Ann C. Miller and Matthew H. Bonds are with the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Blavatnik Institute at Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, and the health care nongovernmental organization PIVOT, Ranomafana, Madagascar
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13
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Sun TA, Hilker FM. Analyzing the mutual feedbacks between lake pollution and human behaviour in a mathematical social-ecological model. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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14
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Hoover CM, Sokolow SH, Kemp J, Sanchirico JN, Lund AJ, Jones IJ, Higginson T, Riveau G, Savaya A, Coyle S, Wood CL, Micheli F, Casagrandi R, Mari L, Gatto M, Rinaldo A, Perez-Saez J, Rohr JR, Sagi A, Remais JV, De Leo GA. Modelled effects of prawn aquaculture on poverty alleviation and schistosomiasis control. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2020; 2:611-620. [PMID: 33313425 PMCID: PMC7731924 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0301-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2018] [Accepted: 04/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Recent evidence suggests that snail predators may aid efforts to control the human parasitic disease schistosomiasis by eating aquatic snail species that serve as intermediate hosts of the parasite. Potential synergies between schistosomiasis control and aquaculture of giant prawns are evaluated using an integrated bio-economic-epidemiologic model. Combinations of stocking density and aquaculture cycle length that maximize cumulative, discounted profit are identified for two prawn species in sub-Saharan Africa: the endemic, non-domesticated Macrobrachium vollenhovenii, and the non-native, domesticated Macrobrachium rosenbergii. At profit maximizing densities, both M. rosenbergii and M. vollenhovenii may substantially reduce intermediate host snail populations and aid schistosomiasis control efforts. Control strategies drawing on both prawn aquaculture to reduce intermediate host snail populations and mass drug administration to treat infected individuals are found to be superior to either strategy alone. Integrated aquaculture-based interventions can be a win-win strategy in terms of health and sustainable development in schistosomiasis endemic regions of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Hoover
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment and Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
| | - Jonas Kemp
- Program in Human Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
| | - James N. Sanchirico
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616 USA
| | - Andrea J. Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
| | - Isabel J. Jones
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA
| | - Tyler Higginson
- Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Monterey, CA 93940 USA
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Biomedical Research Center EPLS, Saint Louis, Senegal
| | - Amit Savaya
- Department of Life Sciences and the National Institute for Biotechnology in the Negev, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Shawn Coyle
- Kentucky State University, Aquaculture Division, Aquaculture Research Center, Frankfort, KY 40601 USA
| | - Chelsea L. Wood
- University of Washington, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
| | - Fiorenza Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station and Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA
| | - Renato Casagrandi
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Marino Gatto
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Switzerland
| | - Javier Perez-Saez
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Switzerland
| | - Jason R. Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative University of Notre Damea, Notre Dame, IN, 46556 USA
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620 USA
| | - Amir Sagi
- Department of Life Sciences and the National Institute for Biotechnology in the Negev, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Justin V. Remais
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment and Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
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15
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Zhou Y, Guo Y, Liu Y. Health, income and poverty: evidence from China's rural household survey. Int J Equity Health 2020; 19:36. [PMID: 32178686 PMCID: PMC7076955 DOI: 10.1186/s12939-020-1121-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Understanding the health status of the poor households and the influence of unhealthy on their income can provide some vital insights into the effectiveness and appropriateness of poverty reduction solutions. Methods Based on a nationwide cross-sectional survey of 29,712 rural poor households, this study systematically investigated the causes of poverty and health status of Chinese rural poor households, and revealed the relationship between health, income and poverty. Results The health status of the rural poor in China is not optimistic, with 51.63% attributing their poverty to the illness of household members. NCDs are the biggest health threat to the rural poor in China. Over 60% of all the households have at least one patient and more than a quarter of the households with patients cannot afford expensive medical expenses. Although 98% of all the households participate in China’s a rural health insurance system - the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme - 16% are still unable to bear their medical expenses after reimbursement from the scheme. Further, high altitude, ill-health and low-income are interlinked and mutually reinforcing. The per capita net income of poor households was inversely proportional to the altitude of their places of residence, family aging and unhealthy status, but was positively correlated with the number of workforces in their families. Conclusions Poverty due to illness is one of the root causes of rural poverty in China. With the backward medical infrastructure in high altitude areas, people are more prone to fall into the vicious circle of poverty-unhealthy-low income-poverty. The establishment of effective long-term mechanism of disease prevention and intervention is an important prerequisite to enhance the endogenous development power of the poor and reduce poverty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Zhou
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. .,Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. .,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Yuanzhi Guo
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.,Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Yansui Liu
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.,Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
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16
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Rondeau D, Perry B, Grimard F. The Consequences of COVID-19 and Other Disasters for Wildlife and Biodiversity. ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS 2020; 76:945-961. [PMID: 32836863 PMCID: PMC7416586 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00480-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/11/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
We review the economic channels by which the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent policy responses may affect wildlife and biodiversity. The pandemic is put in the context of more than 5,000 disease outbreaks, natural disasters, recessions and armed conflicts in a sample of 21 high biodiversity countries. The most salient feature of the pandemic is its creation of multiple income shocks to rural and coastal households in biodiverse countries, correlated across sectors of activities and spatially. Various research and policy opportunities and challenges are explored .
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Rondeau
- Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
| | - Brianna Perry
- Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
| | - Franque Grimard
- Department of Economics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
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17
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Payne H, Lawrie D, Nieuwoudt M, Cotton MF, Gibb DM, Babiker A, Glencross D, Klein N. Comparison of Lymphocyte Subset Populations in Children From South Africa, US and Europe. Front Pediatr 2020; 8:406. [PMID: 32793531 PMCID: PMC7390891 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2020.00406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 06/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Typically, African healthcare providers use immunological reference intervals adopted from Europe and the United States (US). This may be inappropriate in a setting with many differences including exposure to different environmental stimuli and pathogens. We compared immunological reference intervals for children from Europe and the US with South African children to explore whether healthy children living in settings with high rates of infectious diseases have different baseline immunological parameters. Methodology: Blood was taken from 381 HIV-uninfected children aged between 2 weeks and 13 years of age from a Child Wellness Clinic in an informal settlement in Cape Town to establish local hematological and lymphocyte reference intervals for South African children. Flow-cytometry quantified percentage and absolute counts of the B-cells, NK-cells, and T-cells including activated, naïve, and memory subsets. These parameters were compared to three separate studies of healthy children in Europe and the US. Results: Increased activated T-cells, and natural killer cells were seen in the younger age-groups. The main finding across all age-groups was that the ratio of naïve/memory CD4 and CD8 T-cells reached a 1:1 ratio around the first decade of life in healthy South African children, far earlier than in resource-rich countries, where it occurs around the fourth decade of life. Conclusions: This is the largest data set to date describing healthy children from an African environment. These data have been used to create local reference intervals for South African children. The dramatic decline in the naïve/memory ratio of both CD4 and CD8 T-cells alongside increased activation markers may indicate that South African children are exposed to a wider range of environmental pathogens in early life than in resource-rich countries. These marked differences illustrate that reference intervals should be relevant to the population they serve. The implications for the developing pediatric immune system requires further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen Payne
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, London, United Kingdom
| | - Denise Lawrie
- National Health Laboratory Service, Faculty of Health Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Martin Nieuwoudt
- Institute for Biomedical Engineering (IBE), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Mark Fredric Cotton
- Family Centre for Research With Ubuntu, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Diana M Gibb
- Clinical Trials Unit, Medical Research Council, London, United Kingdom
| | - Abdel Babiker
- Clinical Trials Unit, Medical Research Council, London, United Kingdom
| | - Debbie Glencross
- National Health Laboratory Service, Faculty of Health Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nigel Klein
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, London, United Kingdom
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18
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Alonso S, Chaccour CJ, Elobolobo E, Nacima A, Candrinho B, Saifodine A, Saute F, Robertson M, Zulliger R. The economic burden of malaria on households and the health system in a high transmission district of Mozambique. Malar J 2019; 18:360. [PMID: 31711489 PMCID: PMC6849240 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-019-2995-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2019] [Accepted: 11/04/2019] [Indexed: 03/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mozambique. Increased investments in malaria control have reduced the burden, but few studies have estimated the costs of malaria in the country. This paper estimates the economic costs associated with malaria care to households and to the health system in the high burden district of Mopeia in central Mozambique. Methods Malaria care-seeking and morbidity costs were routinely collected among 1373 households with at least one child enrolled in an active case detection (ACD) cohort in Mopeia, and through cross-sectional surveys with 824 families in 2017 and 805 families in 2018. Household costs included direct medical expenses, transportation and opportunity costs of the time lost due to illness. Structured questionnaires were used to estimate the health system costs associated with malaria care in all 13 district health facilities. Cost estimations followed an ingredient-based approach with a top-down allocation approach for health system expenses. Results Among participants in cross-sectional studies, households sought care for nine severe malaria cases requiring hospital admission and for 679 uncomplicated malaria cases. Median household costs associated with uncomplicated malaria among individuals of all ages were US$ 3.46 (IQR US$ 0.07–22.41) and US$ 81.08 (IQR US$ 39.34–88.38) per severe case. Median household costs were lower among children under five (ACD cohort): US$ 1.63 (IQR US$ 0.00–7.79) per uncomplicated case and US$ 64.90 (IQR US$ 49.76–80.96) per severe case. Opportunity costs were the main source of household costs. Median health system costs associated with malaria among patients of all ages were US$ 4.34 (IQR US$ 4.32–4.35) per uncomplicated case and US$ 26.56 (IQR US$ 18.03–44.09) per severe case. Considering household and health system costs, the overall cost of malaria care to society was US$ 7.80 per uncomplicated case and US$ 107.64 per severe case, representing an economic malaria burden of US$ 332,286.24 (IQR US$ 186,355.84–1,091,212.90) per year only in Mopeia. Conclusions Despite the provision of free malaria services, households in Mopeia incur significant direct and indirect costs associated with the disease. Furthermore, the high malaria cost on the Mozambican health system underscores the need to strengthen malaria prevention to reduce the high burden and improve productivity in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergi Alonso
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Bairro Cambeve, Rua 12, Distrito da Manhiça, CP 1929, Maputo, Mozambique. .,ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. .,Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, Barts and The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
| | - Carlos J Chaccour
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Bairro Cambeve, Rua 12, Distrito da Manhiça, CP 1929, Maputo, Mozambique.,ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Eldo Elobolobo
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Bairro Cambeve, Rua 12, Distrito da Manhiça, CP 1929, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Amilcar Nacima
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Bairro Cambeve, Rua 12, Distrito da Manhiça, CP 1929, Maputo, Mozambique
| | | | - Abuchahama Saifodine
- U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, US Agency for International Development, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Francisco Saute
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Bairro Cambeve, Rua 12, Distrito da Manhiça, CP 1929, Maputo, Mozambique
| | | | - Rose Zulliger
- U.S. President's Malaria Initiative and Malaria Branch, Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Maputo, Mozambique
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19
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Lund AJ, Sam MM, Sy AB, Sow OW, Ali S, Sokolow SH, Bereknyei Merrell S, Bruce J, Jouanard N, Senghor S, Riveau G, Lopez-Carr D, De Leo GA. Unavoidable Risks: Local Perspectives on Water Contact Behavior and Implications for Schistosomiasis Control in an Agricultural Region of Northern Senegal. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2019; 101:837-847. [PMID: 31452497 PMCID: PMC6779182 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Human schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease affecting more than 200 million people worldwide. Direct contact with snail-infested freshwater is the primary route of exposure. Water management infrastructure, including dams and irrigation schemes, expands snail habitat, increasing the risk across the landscape. The Diama Dam, built on the lower basin of the Senegal River to prevent saltwater intrusion and promote year-round agriculture in the drought-prone Sahel, is a paradigmatic case. Since dam completion in 1986, the rural population-whose livelihoods rely mostly on agriculture-has suffered high rates of schistosome infection. The region remains one of the most hyperendemic regions in the world. Because of the convergence between livelihoods and environmental conditions favorable to transmission, schistosomiasis is considered an illustrative case of a disease-driven poverty trap (DDPT). The literature to date on the topic, however, remains largely theoretical. With qualitative data generated from 12 focus groups in four villages, we conducted team-based theme analysis to investigate how perception of schistosomiasis risk and reported preventive behaviors may suggest the presence of a DDPT. Our analysis reveals three key findings: 1) rural villagers understand schistosomiasis risk (i.e., where and when infections occur), 2) accordingly, they adopt some preventive behaviors, but ultimately, 3) exposure persists, because of circumstances characteristic of rural livelihoods. These findings highlight the capacity of local populations to participate actively in schistosomiasis control programs and the limitations of widespread drug treatment campaigns. Interventions that target the environmental reservoir of disease may provide opportunities to reduce exposure while maintaining resource-dependent livelihoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea J. Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | | | - Alioune Badara Sy
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | | | - Sofia Ali
- Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | | | - Sylvia Bereknyei Merrell
- Department of Surgery, Stanford Surgery Policy Improvement Research & Education Center (S-SPIRE), School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Janine Bruce
- Pediatric Advocacy Program, Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Nicolas Jouanard
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
- Station d’Innovation Aquacole, Saint Louis, Senegal
| | - Simon Senghor
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | - Gilles Riveau
- Centre de Recherche Biomédicale – Espoir Pour la Santé, Saint Louis, Sénégal
| | - David Lopez-Carr
- Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California
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20
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Malik B, Bhattacharyya S. Antibiotic drug-resistance as a complex system driven by socio-economic growth and antibiotic misuse. Sci Rep 2019; 9:9788. [PMID: 31278344 PMCID: PMC6611849 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-46078-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Overwhelming antibiotic use poses a serious challenge today to the public-health policymakers worldwide. Many empirical studies pointed out this ever-increasing antibiotic consumption as primary driver of the community-acquired antibiotic drug-resistance, especially in the middle- and lower-income countries. The association is well documented across spatio-temporal gradients in many parts of the world, but there is rarely any study that emphasizes the mechanism of the association, which is important for combating drug-resistance. Formulating a mathematical model of emergence and transmission of drug-resistance, we in this paper, present how amalgamating three components: socio-economic growth, population ecology of infectious disease, and antibiotic misuse can instinctively incite proliferation of resistance in the society. We show that combined impact of economy, infections, and self-medication yield synergistic interactions through feedbacks on each other, presenting the emergence of drug-resistance as a self-reinforcing cycle in the population. Analysis of our model not only determines the threshold of antibiotic use beyond which the emergence of resistance may occur, but also characterizes how fast it develops depending on economic growth, and lack of education and awareness of the population. Our model illustrates that proper and timely government aid in population health can break the self-reinforcing process and reduce the burden of drug-resistance in the community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bhawna Malik
- Disease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Gautan Buddha Nagar, India.
| | - Samit Bhattacharyya
- Disease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Gautan Buddha Nagar, India.
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21
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Room for Silence: Ebola Research, Pluralism and the Pragmatic Study of Sociomaterial Practices. Comput Support Coop Work 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10606-018-9329-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
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22
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Abstract
All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of microrecoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethinking of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience.
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23
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Grace D, Lindahl J, Wanyoike F, Bett B, Randolph T, Rich KM. Poor livestock keepers: ecosystem-poverty-health interactions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 372:rstb.2016.0166. [PMID: 28584174 PMCID: PMC5468691 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Humans have never been healthier, wealthier or more numerous. Yet, present success may be at the cost of future prosperity and in some places, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, poverty persists. Livestock keepers, especially pastoralists, are over-represented among the poor. Poverty has been mainly attributed to a lack of access, whether to goods, education or enabling institutions. More recent insights suggest ecosystems may influence poverty and the self-reinforcing mechanisms that constitute poverty traps in more subtle ways. The plausibility of zoonoses as poverty traps is strengthened by landmark studies on disease burden in recent years. While in theory, endemic zoonoses are best controlled in the animal host, in practice, communities are often left to manage disease themselves, with the focus on treatment rather than prevention. We illustrate this with results from a survey on health costs in a pastoral ecosystem. Epidemic zoonoses are more likely to elicit official responses, but these can have unintended consequences that deepen poverty traps. In this context, a systems understanding of disease control can lead to more effective and pro-poor disease management. We illustrate this with an example of how a system dynamics model can help optimize responses to Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Kenya by giving decision makers real-time access to the costs of the delay in vaccinating. In conclusion, a broader, more ecological understanding of poverty and of the appropriate responses to the diseases of poverty can contribute to improved livelihoods for livestock keepers in Africa. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’.
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Affiliation(s)
- Delia Grace
- International Livestock Research Institute, Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Johanna Lindahl
- International Livestock Research Institute, Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya.,Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, 751 05 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Francis Wanyoike
- International Livestock Research Institute, Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Bernard Bett
- International Livestock Research Institute, Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Tom Randolph
- International Livestock Research Institute, Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Karl M Rich
- Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, New Zealand
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24
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Wood CL, McInturff A, Young HS, Kim D, Lafferty KD. Human infectious disease burdens decrease with urbanization but not with biodiversity. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 372:rstb.2016.0122. [PMID: 28438911 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/28/2017] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Infectious disease burdens vary from country to country and year to year due to ecological and economic drivers. Recently, Murray et al. (Murray CJ et al 2012 Lancet380, 2197-2223. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4)) estimated country-level morbidity and mortality associated with a variety of factors, including infectious diseases, for the years 1990 and 2010. Unlike other databases that report disease prevalence or count outbreaks per country, Murray et al. report health impacts in per-person disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), allowing comparison across diseases with lethal and sublethal health effects. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationships between DALYs lost to infectious disease and potential demographic, economic, environmental and biotic drivers, for the 60 intermediate-sized countries where data were available and comparable. Most drivers had unique associations with each disease. For example, temperature was positively associated with some diseases and negatively associated with others, perhaps due to differences in disease agent thermal optima, transmission modes and host species identities. Biodiverse countries tended to have high disease burdens, consistent with the expectation that high diversity of potential hosts should support high disease transmission. Contrary to the dilution effect hypothesis, increases in biodiversity over time were not correlated with improvements in human health, and increases in forestation over time were actually associated with increased disease burden. Urbanization and wealth were associated with lower burdens for many diseases, a pattern that could arise from increased access to sanitation and healthcare in cities and increased investment in healthcare. The importance of urbanization and wealth helps to explain why most infectious diseases have become less burdensome over the past three decades, and points to possible levers for further progress in improving global public health.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chelsea L Wood
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Michigan Society of Fellows, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104, USA .,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Alex McInturff
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Hillary S Young
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
| | - DoHyung Kim
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Kevin D Lafferty
- US Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, c/o Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
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25
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Arthur RF, Gurley ES, Salje H, Bloomfield LSP, Jones JH. Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:rstb.2016.0454. [PMID: 28289265 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronan F Arthur
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Emily S Gurley
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Laura S P Bloomfield
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - James H Jones
- Department of Earth Systems Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK
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26
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Desmond
- Human Sciences Research Council, Private Bag X07, Dalbridge, 4014, South Africa.
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27
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General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty. Nat Ecol Evol 2017; 1:1153-1159. [PMID: 29046570 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0221-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2016] [Accepted: 05/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The world's rural poor rely heavily on their immediate natural environment for subsistence and suffer high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. We present a general framework for modelling subsistence and health of the rural poor by coupling simple dynamic models of population ecology with those for economic growth. The models show that feedbacks between the biological and economic systems can lead to a state of persistent poverty. Analyses of a wide range of specific systems under alternative assumptions show the existence of three possible regimes corresponding to a globally stable development equilibrium, a globally stable poverty equilibrium and bistability. Bistability consistently emerges as a property of generalized disease-economic systems for about a fifth of the feasible parameter space. The overall proportion of parameters leading to poverty is larger than that resulting in healthy/wealthy development. All the systems are found to be most sensitive to human disease parameters. The framework highlights feedbacks, processes and parameters that are important to measure in studies of rural poverty to identify effective pathways towards sustainable development.
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Garchitorena A, Sokolow SH, Roche B, Ngonghala CN, Jocque M, Lund A, Barry M, Mordecai EA, Daily GC, Jones JH, Andrews JR, Bendavid E, Luby SP, LaBeaud AD, Seetah K, Guégan JF, Bonds MH, De Leo GA. Disease ecology, health and the environment: a framework to account for ecological and socio-economic drivers in the control of neglected tropical diseases. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:20160128. [PMID: 28438917 PMCID: PMC5413876 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/03/2017] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Reducing the burden of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is one of the key strategic targets advanced by the Sustainable Development Goals. Despite the unprecedented effort deployed for NTD elimination in the past decade, their control, mainly through drug administration, remains particularly challenging: persistent poverty and repeated exposure to pathogens embedded in the environment limit the efficacy of strategies focused exclusively on human treatment or medical care. Here, we present a simple modelling framework to illustrate the relative role of ecological and socio-economic drivers of environmentally transmitted parasites and pathogens. Through the analysis of system dynamics, we show that periodic drug treatments that lead to the elimination of directly transmitted diseases may fail to do so in the case of human pathogens with an environmental reservoir. Control of environmentally transmitted diseases can be more effective when human treatment is complemented with interventions targeting the environmental reservoir of the pathogen. We present mechanisms through which the environment can influence the dynamics of poverty via disease feedbacks. For illustration, we present the case studies of Buruli ulcer and schistosomiasis, two devastating waterborne NTDs for which control is particularly challenging.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Garchitorena
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- PIVOT, Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - S H Sokolow
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - B Roche
- UMI UMMISCO 209 IRD/UPMC - Bondy, France
- UMR MIVEGEC 5290 CNRS - IRD - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - C N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - M Jocque
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - A Lund
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - M Barry
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - E A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - G C Daily
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - J H Jones
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College, London, UK
| | - J R Andrews
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - E Bendavid
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - S P Luby
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - A D LaBeaud
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - K Seetah
- Department of Anthropology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - J F Guégan
- UMR MIVEGEC 5290 CNRS - IRD - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Future Earth international programme, OneHealth core research programme, Montréal, Canada
| | - M H Bonds
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- PIVOT, Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - G A De Leo
- Department of Biology, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
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29
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Ezran C, Karanewsky CJ, Pendleton JL, Sholtz A, Krasnow MR, Willick J, Razafindrakoto A, Zohdy S, Albertelli MA, Krasnow MA. The Mouse Lemur, a Genetic Model Organism for Primate Biology, Behavior, and Health. Genetics 2017; 206:651-664. [PMID: 28592502 PMCID: PMC5499178 DOI: 10.1534/genetics.116.199448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2016] [Accepted: 04/08/2017] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Systematic genetic studies of a handful of diverse organisms over the past 50 years have transformed our understanding of biology. However, many aspects of primate biology, behavior, and disease are absent or poorly modeled in any of the current genetic model organisms including mice. We surveyed the animal kingdom to find other animals with advantages similar to mice that might better exemplify primate biology, and identified mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) as the outstanding candidate. Mouse lemurs are prosimian primates, roughly half the genetic distance between mice and humans. They are the smallest, fastest developing, and among the most prolific and abundant primates in the world, distributed throughout the island of Madagascar, many in separate breeding populations due to habitat destruction. Their physiology, behavior, and phylogeny have been studied for decades in laboratory colonies in Europe and in field studies in Malagasy rainforests, and a high quality reference genome sequence has recently been completed. To initiate a classical genetic approach, we developed a deep phenotyping protocol and have screened hundreds of laboratory and wild mouse lemurs for interesting phenotypes and begun mapping the underlying mutations, in collaboration with leading mouse lemur biologists. We also seek to establish a mouse lemur gene "knockout" library by sequencing the genomes of thousands of mouse lemurs to identify null alleles in most genes from the large pool of natural genetic variants. As part of this effort, we have begun a citizen science project in which students across Madagascar explore the remarkable biology around their schools, including longitudinal studies of the local mouse lemurs. We hope this work spawns a new model organism and cultivates a deep genetic understanding of primate biology and health. We also hope it establishes a new and ethical method of genetics that bridges biological, behavioral, medical, and conservation disciplines, while providing an example of how hands-on science education can help transform developing countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Ezran
- Department of Biochemistry
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and
| | | | | | - Alex Sholtz
- Department of Biochemistry
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and
| | - Maya R Krasnow
- Department of Biochemistry
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and
| | - Jason Willick
- Department of Biochemistry
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and
| | - Andriamahery Razafindrakoto
- Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, BP 566, Madagascar, and
| | - Sarah Zohdy
- School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences and College of Veterinary Medicine, Auburn University, Alabama 36849
| | - Megan A Albertelli
- Department of Comparative Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, California 94305
| | - Mark A Krasnow
- Department of Biochemistry
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and
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Lade SJ, Haider LJ, Engström G, Schlüter M. Resilience offers escape from trapped thinking on poverty alleviation. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2017; 3:e1603043. [PMID: 28508077 PMCID: PMC5415336 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1603043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2016] [Accepted: 03/05/2017] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The poverty trap concept strongly influences current research and policy on poverty alleviation. Financial or technological inputs intended to "push" the rural poor out of a poverty trap have had many successes but have also failed unexpectedly with serious ecological and social consequences that can reinforce poverty. Resilience thinking can help to (i) understand how these failures emerge from the complex relationships between humans and the ecosystems on which they depend and (ii) navigate diverse poverty alleviation strategies, such as transformative change, that may instead be required. First, we review commonly observed or assumed social-ecological relationships in rural development contexts, focusing on economic, biophysical, and cultural aspects of poverty. Second, we develop a classification of poverty alleviation strategies using insights from resilience research on social-ecological change. Last, we use these advances to develop stylized, multidimensional poverty trap models. The models show that (i) interventions that ignore nature and culture can reinforce poverty (particularly in agrobiodiverse landscapes), (ii) transformative change can instead open new pathways for poverty alleviation, and (iii) asset inputs may be effective in other contexts (for example, where resource degradation and poverty are tightly interlinked). Our model-based approach and insights offer a systematic way to review the consequences of the causal mechanisms that characterize poverty traps in different agricultural contexts and identify appropriate strategies for rural development challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven J. Lade
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
- Corresponding author. (S.J.L.); (L.J.H.)
| | - L. Jamila Haider
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Corresponding author. (S.J.L.); (L.J.H.)
| | - Gustav Engström
- The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics and Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maja Schlüter
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Fiorella KJ, Milner EM, Salmen CR, Hickey MD, Omollo DO, Odhiambo A, Mattah B, Bukusi EA, Fernald LCH, Brashares JS. Human health alters the sustainability of fishing practices in East Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:4171-4176. [PMID: 28377522 PMCID: PMC5402454 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1613260114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding feedbacks between human and environmental health is critical for the millions who cope with recurrent illness and rely directly on natural resources for sustenance. Although studies have examined how environmental degradation exacerbates infectious disease, the effects of human health on our use of the environment remains unexplored. Human illness is often tacitly assumed to reduce human impacts on the environment. By this logic, ill people reduce the time and effort that they put into extractive livelihoods and, thereby, their impact on natural resources. We followed 303 households living on Lake Victoria, Kenya over four time points to examine how illness influenced fishing. Using fixed effect conditional logit models to control for individual-level and time-invariant factors, we analyzed the effect of illness on fishing effort and methods. Illness among individuals who listed fishing as their primary occupation affected their participation in fishing. However, among active fishers, we found limited evidence that illness reduced fishing effort. Instead, ill fishers shifted their fishing methods. When ill, fishers were more likely to use methods that were illegal, destructive, and concentrated in inshore areas but required less travel and energy. Ill fishers were also less likely to fish using legal methods that are physically demanding, require travel to deep waters, and are considered more sustainable. By altering the physical capacity and outlook of fishers, human illness shifted their effort, their engagement with natural resources, and the sustainability of their actions. These findings show a previously unexplored pathway through which poor human health may negatively impact the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn J Fiorella
- Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853;
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Erin M Milner
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Charles R Salmen
- North Memorial Family Medicine Residency Program, Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55411
| | - Matthew D Hickey
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94110
| | - Dan O Omollo
- Research Department, Organic Health Response, Mfangano Island, Kenya
| | - Abdi Odhiambo
- Research Department, Organic Health Response, Mfangano Island, Kenya
| | - Brian Mattah
- Research Department, Organic Health Response, Mfangano Island, Kenya
| | - Elizabeth A Bukusi
- Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Lia C H Fernald
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
| | - Justin S Brashares
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
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Harhay MO, Fawzi MCS, Jeanneret S, Ndayisaba D, Kibaalya W, Harrison EA, Small DS. An assessment of the Francois-Xavier Bagnoud poverty alleviation program in Rwanda and Uganda. Int J Public Health 2016; 62:241-252. [PMID: 27796413 DOI: 10.1007/s00038-016-0907-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2016] [Revised: 10/03/2016] [Accepted: 10/11/2016] [Indexed: 10/20/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We evaluate the three-year community-based FXBVillage poverty-alleviation model, which provides extremely poor families with sustained social support and graduated material support for education, healthcare, housing, nutrition, and income-generation. METHODS We combine a pre/post analysis of participant households in Rwanda (n = 912) and Uganda (n = 628) with construction and assessment of a combined multivariable household wealth index comparing FXBVillage data with national Demographic Health Surveys. RESULTS Many FXBVillage households shifted to higher household wealth quintiles. This shift was particularly strong in Rwanda. Increases among relevant household characteristics included (in Rwanda/Uganda): ≥3 meals/day (5-88%)/(44-86%), school attendance 5-17 years (79-97%)/(64-89%), adequate school supplies (7-97%)/(4-71%), and communal financial support if needed (27-98%)/(29-87%). Universal bednet ownership and water treatment was nearly attained; vaccine coverage was not, especially in Uganda. CONCLUSIONS The model likely supports poverty-alleviation among participants. The variability of improvements, across indicators and countries, highlights the need for better understanding of interactions within programs and between programs and implementation settings, as well as how these interactions matter to poverty-reduction strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael O Harhay
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19146, USA. .,University of Pennsylvania, 708 Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA, 19104-6021, USA.
| | - Mary C Smith Fawzi
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
| | | | | | | | - Emily A Harrison
- Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Dylan S Small
- Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19146, USA
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33
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Garchitorena A, Ngonghala CN, Guegan JF, Texier G, Bellanger M, Bonds M, Roche B. Economic inequality caused by feedbacks between poverty and the dynamics of a rare tropical disease: the case of Buruli ulcer in sub-Saharan Africa. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 282:20151426. [PMID: 26538592 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have received increasing attention in recent years by the global heath community, as they cumulatively constitute substantial burdens of disease as well as barriers for economic development. A number of common tropical diseases such as malaria, hookworm or schistosomiasis have well-documented economic impacts. However, much less is known about the population-level impacts of diseases that are rare but associated with high disability burden, which represent a great number of tropical diseases. Using an individual-based model of Buruli ulcer (BU), we demonstrate that, through feedbacks between health and economic status, such NTDs can have a significant impact on the economic structure of human populations even at low incidence levels. While average wealth is only marginally affected by BU, the economic conditions of certain subpopulations are impacted sufficiently to create changes in measurable population-level inequality. A reduction of the disability burden caused by BU can thus maximize the economic growth of the poorest subpopulations and reduce significantly the economic inequalities introduced by the disease in endemic regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrés Garchitorena
- UMR MIVEGEC 5290 CNRS - IRD - Université de Montpellier I, Université de Montpellier II, Montpellier, France Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Rennes, France Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Jean-Francois Guegan
- UMR MIVEGEC 5290 CNRS - IRD - Université de Montpellier I, Université de Montpellier II, Montpellier, France Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Rennes, France
| | - Gaëtan Texier
- Service d'épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur, Yaoundé, Cameroun. UMR 912 - SESSTIM - INSERM/IRD/Aix-Marseille Université Faculté de Médecine, Marseille, France
| | | | - Matthew Bonds
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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Ngonghala CN, Mohammed-Awel J, Zhao R, Prosper O. Interplay between insecticide-treated bed-nets and mosquito demography: implications for malaria control. J Theor Biol 2016; 397:179-92. [PMID: 26976050 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Revised: 02/14/2016] [Accepted: 03/02/2016] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Although malaria prevalence has witnessed a significant reduction within the past decade, malaria still constitutes a major health and economic problem, especially to low-income countries. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) remain one of the primary measures for preventing the malignant disease. Unfortunately, the success of ITN campaigns is hampered by improper use and natural decay in ITN-efficacy over time. Many models aimed at studying malaria transmission and control fail to account for this decay, as well as mosquito demography and feeding preferences exhibited by mosquitoes towards humans. Omitting these factors can misrepresent disease risk, while understanding their effects on malaria dynamics can inform control policy. We present a model for malaria dynamics that incorporates these factors, and a systematic analysis, including stability and sensitivity analyses of the model under different conditions. The model with constant ITN-efficacy exhibits a backward bifurcation emphasizing the need for sustained control measures until the basic reproduction number, R0, drops below a critical value at which control is feasible. The infectious and partially immune human populations and R0 are highly sensitive to the probability that a mosquito feeds successfully on a human, ITN coverage and the maximum biting rate of mosquitoes, irrespective of whether ITN-efficacy is constant or declines over time. This implies that ITNs play an important role in disease control. When ITN-efficacy wanes over time, we identify disease risks and corresponding ITN coverage, as well as feeding preference levels for which the disease can be controlled or eradicated. Our study leads to important insights that could assist in the design and implementation of better malaria control strategies. We conclude that ITNs that can retain their effectiveness for longer periods will be more appropriate in the fight against malaria and that making more ITNs available to highly endemic regions is necessary for malaria containment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
| | - Jemal Mohammed-Awel
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698 USA
| | - Ruijun Zhao
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University, Mankato, MN 56001, USA
| | - Olivia Prosper
- Department of Mathematics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506,USA
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35
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The Burden of Livestock Parasites on the Poor. Trends Parasitol 2016; 31:527-530. [PMID: 26604161 DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2015.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2015] [Revised: 09/16/2015] [Accepted: 09/17/2015] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Parasitic diseases of humans and livestock are ubiquitous in the developing world and have substantial impacts on human wellbeing. For the estimated one billion people living in poverty who rely on livestock for their livelihoods, parasites steal valuable nutritional resources through multiple pathways. This diversion of nutrients ultimately contributes to chronic malnutrition, greater human disease burdens, and decreased productivity of both humans and livestock.
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Modeling the burden of poultry disease on the rural poor in Madagascar. One Health 2015; 1:60-65. [PMID: 28616466 PMCID: PMC5441326 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2015.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2015] [Revised: 10/12/2015] [Accepted: 10/14/2015] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Livestock represent a fundamental economic and nutritional resource for many households in the developing world; however, a high burden of infectious disease limits their production potential. Here we present an ecological framework for estimating the burden of poultry disease based on coupled models of infectious disease and economics. The framework is novel, as it values humans and livestock as co-contributors to household wellbeing, incorporating feedbacks between poultry production and human capital in disease burden estimates. We parameterize this coupled ecological-economic model with household-level data to provide an estimate of the overall burden of poultry disease for the Ifanadiana District in Madagascar, where over 72% of households rely on poultry for economic and food security. Our models indicate that households may lose 10-25% of their monthly income under current disease conditions. Results suggest that advancements in poultry health may serve to support income generation through improvements in both human and animal health.
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Analysis of a waterborne disease model with socioeconomic classes. Math Biosci 2015; 269:86-93. [PMID: 26361286 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2015.08.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2014] [Revised: 07/29/2015] [Accepted: 08/28/2015] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Waterborne diseases such as cholera continue to pose serious public health problems in the world today. Transmission parameters can vary greatly with socioeconomic class (SEC) and the availability of clean water. We formulate a multi-patch waterborne disease model such that each patch represents a particular SEC with its own water source, allowing individuals to move between SECs. For a 2-SEC model, we investigate the conditions under which each SEC is responsible for driving a cholera outbreak. We determine the effect of SECs on disease transmission dynamics by comparing the basic reproduction number of the 2-SEC model to that of a homogeneous model that does not take SECs into account. We conclude by extending several results of the 2-SEC model to an n-SEC model.
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Abstract
The increasing frequency of zoonotic disease events underscores a need to develop forecasting tools toward a more preemptive approach to outbreak investigation. We apply machine learning to data describing the traits and zoonotic pathogen diversity of the most speciose group of mammals, the rodents, which also comprise a disproportionate number of zoonotic disease reservoirs. Our models predict reservoir status in this group with over 90% accuracy, identifying species with high probabilities of harboring undiscovered zoonotic pathogens based on trait profiles that may serve as rules of thumb to distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoir species. Key predictors of zoonotic reservoirs include biogeographical properties, such as range size, as well as intrinsic host traits associated with lifetime reproductive output. Predicted hotspots of novel rodent reservoir diversity occur in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Midwestern United States.
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39
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Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission. J Theor Biol 2014; 363:247-61. [PMID: 25158163 PMCID: PMC4374367 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2013] [Revised: 07/30/2014] [Accepted: 08/11/2014] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease in ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions.
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