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Li M, Zhang W, Zheng S, Guo J, He H, Ma Y, Huang Y, Feng Y, Ji C. A real-world study on the changing characteristics of measles antibodies in premature infants in China. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2024; 20:2338505. [PMID: 38599768 PMCID: PMC11008540 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2338505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/31/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The waning of maternal antibodies may cause infants to lose protection against measles before receiving measles-containing vaccine (MCV). The aim of this study is to investigate the changing characteristics and influencing factors of measles antibodies in preterm infants (PT), and to provide scientific basis for optimizing MCV vaccination strategy of the target population. Blood samples were collected from PT and full-term infants (FT) at the chronological age (CA) of 3, 6, and 12 months. Measles antibodies were quantitatively detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Demographic and vaccination information were both collected. Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was used to compare the measles antibodies among different gestation age (GA) groups, and multiple linear regression was performed to identify the correlative factors for the antibodies. Measles antibodies of PT decreased significantly with age increasing before MCV vaccination. The positive rates of antibodies of PT were 10.80% and 3.30% at the age of 3 and 6 months, respectively (p < .001). At 12 months, the measles antibodies and seropositive rate in the infants who received MCV vaccination increased sharply (p < .001). Regression analyzes showed that the younger the GA or the older the age, the lower the antibodies at 3 months(p < .001,p = .018); while the lower measles antibody levels at 3 months and older age predicted the lower antibodies at 6 months(p < .001, p = .029). PT were susceptible to measles due to the low level of maternally derived antibodies before MCV vaccination. More efforts should be considered to protect the vulnerable population during their early postnatal life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingyan Li
- Department of Child Health Care, The Children’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China
| | - Weiwei Zhang
- Department of Child Health Care, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Changxing, Huzhou, China
| | - Shuangshuang Zheng
- Department of Child Health Care, The Children’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China
| | - Junxia Guo
- Department of Child Health Care, The Children’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China
| | - Hanqing He
- Department of Immunization Program, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yongjun Ma
- Department of Pediatrics, Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital Department of Shangyu, Shaoxing, China
| | - Yan Huang
- Department of Immunization Program, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shangyu, Shaoxing, China
| | - Yan Feng
- Department of Immunization Program, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Chai Ji
- Department of Child Health Care, The Children’s Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, China
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2
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Winter AK, Moss WJ. Possible Paths to Measles Eradication: Conceptual Frameworks, Strategies, and Tactics. Vaccines (Basel) 2024; 12:814. [PMID: 39066451 PMCID: PMC11281665 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12070814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2024] [Revised: 06/29/2024] [Accepted: 07/04/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Measles elimination refers to the interruption of measles virus transmission in a defined geographic area (e.g., country or region) for 12 months or more, and measles eradication refers to the global interruption of measles virus transmission. Measles eradication was first discussed and debated in the late 1960's shortly after the licensure of measles vaccines. Most experts agree that measles meets criteria for disease eradication, but progress toward national and regional measles elimination has slowed. Several paths to measles eradication can be described, including an incremental path through country-wide and regional measles elimination and phased paths through endgame scenarios and strategies. Infectious disease dynamic modeling can help inform measles elimination and eradication strategies, and all paths would be greatly facilitated by innovative technologies such as microarray patches to improve vaccine access and demand, point-of-contact diagnostic tests to facilitate outbreak responses, and point-of-contact IgG tests to identify susceptible populations. A pragmatic approach to measles eradication would identify and realize the necessary preconditions and clearly articulate various endgame scenarios and strategies to achieve measles eradication with an intensified and coordinated global effort in a specified timeframe, i.e., to "go big and go fast". To encourage and promote deliberation among a broad array of stakeholders, we provide a brief historical background and key considerations for setting a measles eradication goal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy K. Winter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA;
| | - William J. Moss
- International Vaccine Access Center, Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
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3
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Farhan M, Shah Z, Jan R, Islam S, Alshehri MH, Ling Z. A fractional modeling approach for the transmission dynamics of measles with double-dose vaccination. Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin 2023:1-18. [PMID: 38149815 DOI: 10.1080/10255842.2023.2297171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023]
Abstract
Measles, a member of the Paramyxoviridae family and the Morbillivirus genus, is an infectious disease caused by the measles virus that is extremely contagious and can be prevented through vaccination. When a person with the measles coughs or sneezes, the virus is disseminated by respiratory droplets. Normally, the appearance of measles symptoms takes 10-14 d following viral exposure. Conjunctivitis, a high temperature, a cough, a runny nose, and a distinctive rash are some of the symptoms. Despite the measles vaccination being available, it is still widespread worldwide. To eradicate measles, the Reproduction Number (i.e. R 0 < 1 ) must remain less than unity. This study examines a SEIVR compartmental model in the caputo sense using a double dose of vaccine to simulate the measles outbreak. The reproduction number R 0 and model properties are both thoroughly examined. Both the local and global stabilities of the proposed model are determined for R 0 less and greater than 1. To achieve the model's global stability, the Lyapunov function is used while the existence and uniqueness of the proposed model are demonstrated In addition to the calculated and fitted biological parameters, the forward sensitivity indices for R 0 are also obtained. Simulations of the proposed fractional order (FO) caputo model are performed in order to analyse their graphical representations and the significance of FO derivatives to illustrate how our theoretical findings have an impact. The graphical results show that the measles outbreak is reduced by increasing vaccine dosage rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Farhan
- Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
- School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, PR China
| | - Zahir Shah
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Lakki Marwat, Lakki Marwat, Pakistan
| | - Rashid Jan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Swabi, Swabi, Pakistan
| | - Saeed Islam
- Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Mansoor H Alshehri
- Department of Mathematics, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Zhi Ling
- School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, PR China
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Chen J, Zhang W, Wang Y, Yang W. Determinants of measles persistence in Beijing, China: A modelling study. Epidemiol Infect 2023; 151:e144. [PMID: 37605994 PMCID: PMC10540187 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268823001322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 07/10/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023] Open
Abstract
In Beijing, the capital of China, routine measles mass vaccination has been in place for decades with high coverage; and since the 2000s, catch-up vaccination programmes have been implemented for migrant workers coming to the city. However, measles epidemics in Beijing persisted. Here, we explored the contributing factors of persistent measles transmission in Beijing using an epidemic model in conjunction with a particle filter. Model inputs included data on birth, death, migration, and vaccination. We formulated a series of hypotheses covering the impact of migrant influx, early waning of maternal immunity, and increased mixing among infants; we compared the plausibility of the hypotheses based on model fit to age-grouped, weekly measles incidence data from January 2005 to December 2014, and out-of-fit prediction during 2015-2019. Our best models showed close agreement with the data, and the out-of-fit prediction generally captured the trend of measles incidence from 2015 to 2019. We found that large influx of migrants with considerably higher susceptibility likely contributed to the persistent measles transmission in Beijing. Our findings suggest that stronger catch-up vaccination programmes for migrants may help eliminate measles transmission in Beijing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianjiu Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wan Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
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5
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Shen M, Sun X, Xiao Y, Liu Y, Wang C, Wang Z, Rong L, Peng Z. The impact of supplementary immunization activities on measles transmission dynamics and implications for measles elimination goals: a mathematical modelling study. J Theor Biol 2022; 551-552:111242. [PMID: 35952756 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Measles has re-emerged globally due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals and immunity gap, which causes challenges in eliminating measles. Routine vaccination and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have greatly improved measles control, but the impact of SIAs on the measles transmission dynamics remains unclear as the vaccine-induced immunity wanes. METHODS We developed a comprehensive measles transmission dynamics model by taking into account population demographics, age-specific contact patterns, seasonality, routine vaccination, SIAs, and the waning vaccine-induced immunity. The model was calibrated by the monthly age-specific cases data from 2005 to 2018 in Jiangsu Province, China, and validated by the dynamic sero-prevalence data. We aimed to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of three-time SIAs during 2009-2012 (9.68 million and 4.25 million children aged 8 months-14 years in March 2009 and September 2010, respectively, and 140,000 children aged 8 months-6 years in March 2012) on the measles disease burden and explored whether additional SIAs could accelerate the measles elimination. RESULTS We estimated that the cumulative numbers of measles cases from March 2009 to December 2012 (in the short run) and to December 2018 (in the long run) after three-time SIAs (base case) were 6,699 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2,928-10,469), and 22,411 (15,146-29,675), which averted 45.0% (42.9%-47.0%) and 34.3% (30.7%-37.9%) of 12,226 (4,916-19,537) and 34,274 (21,350-47,199) cases without SIAs, respectively. The fraction of susceptibles for children aged 8-23 months and 2-14 years decreased from 8.3% and 10.8% in March 2009 to 5.8% and 5.8% in April 2012, respectively. However, the fraction of susceptibles aged 15-49 years and above 50 years increased gradually to about 15% in 2018 irrespective of SIAs due to the waning immunity. The measles elimination goal would be reached in 2028, and administrating additional one-off SIAs in September 2022 to children aged 8-23 months, or young adolescents aged 15-19 years could accelerate the elimination one year earlier. CONCLUSIONS SIAs have greatly reduced the measles incidence and the fraction of susceptibles, but the benefit may wane over time. Under the current interventions, Jiangsu province would reach the measles elimination goal in 2028. Additional SIAs may accelerate the measles elimination one year earlier.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingwang Shen
- China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China; Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Xiang Sun
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210009, PR China
| | - Yanni Xiao
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yuanbao Liu
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210009, PR China
| | - Congyue Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, PR China
| | - Zhiguo Wang
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210009, PR China
| | - Libin Rong
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Zhihang Peng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, PR China.
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Kuddus MA, Mohiuddin M, Rahman A. Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination. Sci Rep 2021; 11:16571. [PMID: 34400667 PMCID: PMC8368032 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-95913-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0<1). This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0<1), and if greater than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0>1) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}R0. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}R0 and measles prevalence \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$\end{document}I∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$(\upbeta )$$\end{document}(β) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Abdul Kuddus
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia. .,Department of Mathematics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh.
| | - M Mohiuddin
- Department of Mathematics, Comilla University, Cumilla, 3506, Bangladesh
| | - Azizur Rahman
- School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2678, Australia
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7
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Sereenen E, Saw YM, Erkhembayar R, Volodya B, Dashpagma O, Orsoo O, Kariya T, Ochir C, Yamamoto E, Hamajima N. Estimation of the unvaccinated among those aged less than 25 years according to aimag and its association with incidence of measles outbreak 2015-2016 in Mongolia. NAGOYA JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SCIENCE 2020; 82:437-447. [PMID: 33132428 PMCID: PMC7548245 DOI: 10.18999/nagjms.82.3.437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Mongolia had an epidemic of measles in 2015-2016, even though more than 90% of the population have been vaccinated since 1997. This study aimed to examine the associations between unvaccinated proportion and measles incidence according to aimag. Mongolia has 21 provinces (aimag) with Ulaanbaatar as the capital city. Vaccination coverage between 1991 and 2014 and measles incidence according to aimag were obtained from the National Center for Communicable Diseases of Mongolia database. Accumulated unvaccinated proportion (AUP) among those aged 1 to 24 years in 2015 was estimated from the unvaccinated at the 1st dose of 1991 to 2014. From 1991 to 2014, unvaccinated proportion among those aged 1 to 24 years in the whole country has been reducing from 28.0% in 1991 to 1.8% in 2014. The AUP in 2015 varied from 2.7% (Selenge) to 21.8% (Govisumber). The incidence was remarkably higher in only two aimags with a large density of the unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years (Ulaanbaatar and Darkhan-Uul) than in the other aimags. The incidence had no significant correlation with the AUP, although the correlation between the incidence and the density of unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years was significant when the two aimags were included. In conclusion, the AUP between 2.7% and 21.8% had no correlation with the incidence according to aimags in Mongolia measles epidemic 2015-2016.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enkhbold Sereenen
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
- E-Health Project, Ministry of Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- Nagoya University Asian Satellite Campuses Institute, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Yu Mon Saw
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
- Nagoya University Asian Satellite Campuses Institute, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar
- Department of International Cyber Education, Graduate School, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Baigal Volodya
- Immunization Department, National Center for Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Otgonbayar Dashpagma
- Immunization Department, National Center for Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Oyunchimeg Orsoo
- Department of Public Administration, Ministry of Health, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Tetsuyoshi Kariya
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
- Nagoya University Asian Satellite Campuses Institute, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Chimedsuren Ochir
- Department of International Cyber Education, Graduate School, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Eiko Yamamoto
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Nobuyuki Hamajima
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
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8
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Yang W. Transmission dynamics of and insights from the 2018-2019 measles outbreak in New York City: A modeling study. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:eaaz4037. [PMID: 32548250 PMCID: PMC7272232 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz4037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Accepted: 03/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
In 2018-2019, New York City experienced the largest measles outbreak in the United States in nearly three decades. To identify key contributing factors, we modeled the transmission dynamics of this outbreak. Results indicate that delayed vaccination of 1- to 4-year-olds enabled the initial spread and that increased infectious contact, likely via "measles parties," facilitated later transmission. We found that around half of infants were susceptible by age 1 and thus had many infections. Without the implemented vaccination campaigns, numbers of infections and hospitalizations could have been >10 times higher and would predominantly affect those under 4. These results suggest that a first vaccine dose before age 1 and the second dose before age 4 could allow parents to vaccinate and protect children more effectively should a high level of vaccine hesitancy persist. Enhanced public health education is needed to reduce activities that unnecessarily expose children to measles and other infections.
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Cutts FT, Dansereau E, Ferrari MJ, Hanson M, McCarthy KA, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Tatem AJ, Thakkar N, Truelove S, Utazi E, Wesolowski A, Winter AK. Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications. Vaccine 2020; 38:979-992. [PMID: 31787412 PMCID: PMC6996156 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2019] [Revised: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 11/08/2019] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
After many decades of vaccination, measles epidemiology varies greatly between and within countries. National immunization programs are therefore encouraged to conduct regular situation analyses and to leverage models to adapt interventions to local needs. Here, we review applications of models to develop locally tailored interventions to support control and elimination efforts. In general, statistical and semi-mechanistic transmission models can be used to synthesize information from vaccination coverage, measles incidence, demographic, and/or serological data, offering a means to estimate the spatial and age-specific distribution of measles susceptibility. These estimates complete the picture provided by vaccination coverage alone, by accounting for natural immunity. Dynamic transmission models can then be used to evaluate the relative impact of candidate interventions for measles control and elimination and the expected future epidemiology. In most countries, models predict substantial numbers of susceptible individuals outside the age range of routine vaccination, which affects outbreak risk and necessitates additional intervention to achieve elimination. More effective use of models to inform both vaccination program planning and evaluation requires the development of training to enhance broader understanding of models and where feasible, building capacity for modelling in-country, pipelines for rapid evaluation of model predictions using surveillance data, and clear protocols for incorporating model results into decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- F T Cutts
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - E Dansereau
- Vaccine Delivery, Global Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - M J Ferrari
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - M Hanson
- Vaccine Delivery, Global Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - K A McCarthy
- Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005, USA
| | - C J E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - S Takahashi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA
| | - A J Tatem
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - N Thakkar
- Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005, USA
| | - S Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - E Utazi
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - A Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - A K Winter
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
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10
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Memon Z, Qureshi S, Memon BR. Mathematical analysis for a new nonlinear measles epidemiological system using real incidence data from Pakistan. EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL PLUS 2020; 135:378. [PMID: 32435550 PMCID: PMC7223692 DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00392-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Accepted: 04/07/2020] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Modeling of infectious diseases is essential to comprehend dynamic behavior for the transmission of an epidemic. This research study consists of a newly proposed mathematical system for transmission dynamics of the measles epidemic. The measles system is based upon mass action principle wherein human population is divided into five mutually disjoint compartments: susceptible S(t)-vaccinated V(t)-exposed E(t)-infectious I(t)-recovered R(t). Using real measles cases reported from January 2019 to October 2019 in Pakistan, the system has been validated. Two unique equilibria called measles-free and endemic (measles-present) are shown to be locally asymptotically stable for basic reproductive number R 0 < 1 and R 0 > 1 , respectively. While using Lyapunov functions, the equilibria are found to be globally asymptotically stable under the former conditions on R 0 . However, backward bifurcation shows coexistence of stable endemic equilibrium with a stable measles-free equilibrium for R 0 < 1 . A strategy for measles control based on herd immunity is presented. The forward sensitivity indices for R 0 are also computed with respect to the estimated and fitted biological parameters. Finally, numerical simulations exhibit dynamical behavior of the measles system under influence of its parameters which further suggest improvement in both the vaccine efficacy and its coverage rate for substantial reduction in the measles epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zaibunnisa Memon
- Department of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh 76062 Pakistan
| | - Sania Qureshi
- Department of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh 76062 Pakistan
| | - Bisharat Rasool Memon
- Institute of Information and Communication Technology, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Pakistan
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11
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Lei M, Wang K, Li J, Zhang Y, Wei X, Qi L, Zhou G, Wu Y. Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Analysis of Measles Viruses in Shenzhen, China from January 2015 to July 2019. Med Sci Monit 2019; 25:9245-9254. [PMID: 31800568 PMCID: PMC6911309 DOI: 10.12659/msm.920614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Measles morbidity and mortality were significantly reduced after the measles vaccine was introduced in China in 1965. However, measles outbreaks easily occur in densely populated areas, especially where there is no universal vaccination. The outbreak that occurred in Shenzhen, the Chinese city with the largest internal immigration, provides a lesson in measles virus mutation and measles prevention. The present study is a phylogenetic analysis of measles viruses and comparison of clinical signs between individuals with and without vaccination. Material/Methods We performed phylogenetic analysis of the nucleoprotein (N) genes of measles virus from 129 measles patients in Shenzhen from January 2015 to July 2019. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using the neighbor-joining method. Results The phylogenetic analysis showed all viruses were classified into genotype H1. In addition, there is often a seasonal measles outbreak in July each year. The clinical data showed that patients who were unvaccinated were more likely to have coughing, chronic bronchitis, conjunctivitis, catarrh, Koplik spots, and diarrhea. Children of migrant workers and those living in mountainous and rural districts accounted for most measles cases. Conclusions Our results showed there was a seasonal measles outbreak in Shenzhen Children’s Hospital. All the measles virus from 129 measles patients were H1 viruses. The clinical signs also showed a difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Moreover, most of the unvaccinated patients came from migrant worker families. We suggest there is a need for increased health promotion and vaccination programs for migrant workers and people living in remote villages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Min Lei
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Kai Wang
- Department of Nephrology, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Respiration, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Xuemei Wei
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Lifeng Qi
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Gaofeng Zhou
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
| | - Yue Wu
- Department of Pharmacy, Shenzhen Children's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China (mainland)
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Chong KC, Rui Y, Liu Y, Zhou T, Jia K, Wang MH, Mohammad KN, He H. Early Waning of Maternal Measles Antibodies in Infants in Zhejiang Province, China: A Comparison of Two Cross-Sectional Serosurveys. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16234680. [PMID: 31771262 PMCID: PMC6926550 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16234680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2019] [Revised: 11/14/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
In China, children aged <8 months, who were expected to be protected by maternal antibodies before receiving the first dose of measles vaccine, were the age group with the greatest risk of infection in recent years. In this study, we evaluated whether infants yet to be age-eligible for measles vaccine had a sufficient seropositive level of maternal measles antibodies in 2009 and 2013. Blood samples were collected from infants aged <8 months through population-based serological surveys conducted in Zhejiang, China. Serum levels of immunoglobulin G measles antibodies were quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In 2013, the mean geometric mean titres (GMTs) of infants aged 4 to 8 months were below the seropositivity threshold (<200 mIU/mL), decreasing from 118.6 mIU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI] 83.0, 169.3 mIU/mL) at 4 months to 28.6 mIU/mL (95% CI 15.6, 52.3 mIU/mL) at 7 months. Antibody levels were significantly lower in 2013 than in 2009 starting from 5 months of age. In conclusion, infants aged 4 to 8 months are susceptible to measles due to low levels of maternal measles antibodies. It is thus suggested to provide infants with a supplementary dose on top of the routine schedule, and/or launch catch-up vaccination campaigns among young women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ka Chun Chong
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518172, China
| | - Yan Rui
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310058, China;
| | - Yan Liu
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
| | - Tianyuan Zhou
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
| | - Katherine Jia
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
| | - Maggie Haitian Wang
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518172, China
| | - Kirran N. Mohammad
- School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; (K.C.C.); (Y.L.); (T.Z.); (K.J.); (M.H.W.)
- Correspondence: (K.N.M.); (H.H.)
| | - Hanqing He
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310058, China;
- Correspondence: (K.N.M.); (H.H.)
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