Tracking human population structure through time from whole genome sequences

Testing times: disentangling admixture histories in recent and complex demographies using ancient DNA

Our knowledge of human evolutionary history has been greatly advanced by paleogenomics. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increasingly focused on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in resolving questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation remains an open question. We evaluated the performance and behavior of two commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference under a diversity of demographic models and data conditions. We performed two complementary simulation approaches-firstly exploring a wide demographic parameter space under four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations using branch-length data from two chromosomes-and secondly, we analyzed a model of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudohaploidization. We observe that population differentiation is the primary factor driving qpAdm performance. Notably, while complex gene flow histories influence which models are classified as plausible, they do not reduce overall performance. Under conditions reflective of the historical period, qpAdm most frequently identifies the true model as plausible among a small candidate set of closely related populations. To increase the utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses, we provide a heuristic for further distinguishing between candidate models that incorporates qpAdm model P-values and f3-statistics. Finally, we demonstrate a significant performance increase for qpAdm using whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, highlighting the potential for improved demographic inference that could be achieved with future advancements in f-statistic estimations.

Demographic History and Inbreeding in Two Declining Sea Duck Species Inferred From Whole-Genome Sequence Data

Anthropogenic impact has transitioned from threatening already rare species to causing significant declines in once numerous organisms. Long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) and velvet scoter (Melanitta fusca) were once important quarry sea duck species in NW Europe, but recent declines resulted in their reclassification as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. We sequenced and assembled genomes for both species and resequenced 15 individuals of each. Using analyses based on site frequency spectra and sequential Markovian coalescence, we found C. hyemalis to show more historical demographic stability, whereas M. fusca was affected particularly by the Last (Weichselian) Glaciation. This likely reflects C. hyemalis breeding continuously across the Arctic, with cycles of glaciation primarily shifting breeding areas south or north without major population declines, whereas the more restricted southern range of M. fusca would lead to significant range contraction during glaciations. Both species showed evidence of declines over the past thousands of years, potentially reflecting anthropogenic pressures with the recent decline indicating an accelerated process. Analysis of runs of homozygosity (ROH) showed low but nontrivial inbreeding, with F ROH from 0.012 to 0.063 in C. hyemalis and ranging from 0 to 0.047 in M. fusca. Lengths of ROH suggested that this was due to ongoing background inbreeding rather than recent declines. Overall, despite demographically important declines, this has not yet led to strong inbreeding and genetic erosion, and the most pressing conservation concern may be the risk of density-dependent (Allee) effects. We recommend monitoring of inbreeding using ROH analysis as a cost-efficient method to track future developments to support effective conservation of these species.

Bursts of coalescence within population pedigrees whenever big families occur

We consider a simple diploid population-genetic model with potentially high variability of offspring numbers among individuals. Specifically, against a backdrop of Wright-Fisher reproduction and no selection, there is an additional probability that a big family occurs, meaning that a pair of individuals has a number of offspring on the order of the population size. We study how the pedigree of the population generated under this model affects the ancestral genetic process of a sample of size two at a single autosomal locus without recombination. Our population model is of the type for which multiple-merger coalescent processes have been described. We prove that the conditional distribution of the pairwise coalescence time given the random pedigree converges to a limit law as the population size tends to infinity. This limit law may or may not be the usual exponential distribution of the Kingman coalescent, depending on the frequency of big families. But because it includes the number and times of big families, it differs from the usual multiple-merger coalescent models. The usual multiple-merger coalescent models are seen as describing the ancestral process marginal to, or averaging over, the pedigree. In the limiting ancestral process conditional on the pedigree, the intervals between big families can be modeled using the Kingman coalescent but each big family causes a discrete jump in the probability of coalescence. Analogous results should hold for larger samples and other population models. We illustrate these results with simulations and additional analysis, highlighting their implications for inference and understanding of multilocus data.

Genomic insights on conservation priorities for North Sea houting and European lake whitefish (Coregonus spp.)

Population genomics analysis holds great potential for informing conservation of endangered populations. We focused on a controversial case of European whitefish (Coregonus spp.) populations. The endangered North Sea houting is the only coregonid fish that tolerates oceanic salinities and was previously considered a species (C. oxyrhinchus) distinct from European lake whitefish (C. lavaretus). However, no firm evidence for genetic-based salinity adaptation has been available. Also, studies based on microsatellite and mitogenome data suggested surprisingly recent divergence (c. 2500 years bp) between houting and lake whitefish. These data types furthermore have provided no evidence for possible inbreeding. Finally, a controversial taxonomic revision recently classified all whitefish in the region as C. maraena, calling conservation priorities of houting into question. We used whole-genome and ddRAD sequencing to analyse six lake whitefish populations and the only extant indigenous houting population. Demographic inference indicated post-glacial expansion and divergence between lake whitefish and houting occurring not long after the Last Glaciation, implying deeper population histories than previous analyses. Runs of homozygosity analysis suggested not only high inbreeding (FROH up to 30.6%) in some freshwater populations but also FROH up to 10.6% in the houting prompting conservation concerns. Finally, outlier scans provided evidence for adaptation to high salinities in the houting. Applying a framework for defining conservation units based on current and historical reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence led us to recommend that the houting be treated as a separate conservation unit regardless of species status. In total, the results underscore the potential of genomics to inform conservation practices, in this case clarifying conservation units and highlighting populations of concern.

High-quality haplotype-resolved genome assembly for ring-cup oak (Quercus glauca) provides insight into oaks demographic dynamics

Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis represents a dominant woody lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests. Regardless of its ecological and economic importance, little is known about the genomes of species in this unique oak lineage. Quercus glauca is one of the most widespread tree species in the section Cyclobalanopsis. In this study, a high-quality haplotype-resolved reference genome was assembled for Q. glauca from PacBio HiFi and Hi-C reads. The genome size, contig N50, and scaffold N50 measured 902.88, 7.60, and 69.28 Mb, respectively, for haplotype1, and 913.28, 7.20, and 71.53 Mb, respectively, for haplotype2. A total of 37,457 and 38,311 protein-coding genes were predicted in haplotype1 and haplotype2, respectively. Homologous chromosomes in the Q. glauca genome had excellent gene pair collinearity. The number of R-genes in Q. glauca was similar to most East Asian oaks but less than oak species from Europe and America. Abundant structural variation in the Q. glauca genome could contribute to environmental stress tolerance in Q. glauca. Sections Cyclobalanopsis and Cerris diverged in the Oligocene, in agreement with fossil records for section Cyclobalanopsis, which document its presence in East Asia since the early Miocene. The demographic dynamics of closely related oak species were largely similar. The high-quality reference genome provided here for the most widespread species in section Cyclobalanopsis will serve as an essential genomic resource for evolutionary studies of key oak lineages while also supporting studies of interspecific introgression, local adaptation, and speciation in oaks.

Reconstructing the ancestral gene pool to uncover the origins and genetic links of Hmong-Mien speakers

BACKGROUND

Hmong-Mien (HM) speakers are linguistically related and live primarily in China, but little is known about their ancestral origins or the evolutionary mechanism shaping their genomic diversity. In particular, the lack of whole-genome sequencing data on the Yao population has prevented a full investigation of the origins and evolutionary history of HM speakers. As such, their origins are debatable.

RESULTS

Here, we made a deep sequencing effort of 80 Yao genomes, and our analysis together with 28 East Asian populations and 968 ancient Asian genomes suggested that there is a strong genetic basis for the formation of the HM language family. We estimated that the most recent common ancestor dates to 5800 years ago, while the genetic divergence between the HM and Tai-Kadai speakers was estimated to be 8200 years ago. We proposed that HM speakers originated from the Yangtze River Basin and spread with agricultural civilization. We identified highly differentiated variants between HM and Han Chinese, in particular, a deafness-related missense variant (rs72474224) in the GJB2 gene is in a higher frequency in HM speakers than in others.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated complex gene flow and medically relevant variants involved in the HM speakers' evolution history.

Genomic Analyses Capture the Human-Induced Demographic Collapse and Recovery in a Wide-Ranging Cervid

The glacial cycles of the Quaternary heavily impacted species through successions of population contractions and expansions. Similarly, populations have been intensely shaped by human pressures such as unregulated hunting and land use changes. White-tailed and mule deer survived in different refugia through the Last Glacial Maximum, and their populations were severely reduced after the European colonization. Here, we analyzed 73 resequenced deer genomes from across their North American range to understand the consequences of climatic and anthropogenic pressures on deer demographic and adaptive history. We found strong signals of climate-induced vicariance and demographic decline; notably, multiple sequentially Markovian coalescent recovers a severe decline in mainland white-tailed deer effective population size (Ne) at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. We found robust evidence for colonial overharvest in the form of a recent and dramatic drop in Ne in all analyzed populations. Historical census size and restocking data show a clear parallel to historical Ne estimates, and temporal Ne/Nc ratio shows patterns of conservation concern for mule deer. Signatures of selection highlight genes related to temperature, including a cold receptor previously highlighted in woolly mammoth. We also detected immune genes that we surmise reflect the changing land use patterns in North America. Our study provides a detailed picture of anthropogenic and climatic-induced decline in deer diversity and clues to understanding the conservation concerns of mule deer and the successful demographic recovery of white-tailed deer.

Hunter-gatherer genetics research: Importance and avenues

Major developments in the field of genetics in the past few decades have revolutionised notions of what it means to be human. Although currently only a few populations around the world practise a hunting and gathering lifestyle, this mode of subsistence has characterised members of our species since its very origins and allowed us to migrate across the planet. Therefore, the geographical distribution of hunter-gatherer populations, dependence on local ecosystems and connections to past populations and neighbouring groups have provided unique insights into our evolutionary origins. However, given the vulnerable status of hunter-gatherers worldwide, the development of the field of anthropological genetics requires that we reevaluate how we conduct research with these communities. Here, we review how the inclusion of hunter-gatherer populations in genetics studies has advanced our understanding of human origins, ancient population migrations and interactions as well as phenotypic adaptations and adaptability to different environments, and the important scientific and medical applications of these advancements. At the same time, we highlight the necessity to address yet unresolved questions and identify areas in which the field may benefit from improvements.

Extensive Phylogenomic Discordance and the Complex Evolutionary History of the Neotropical Cat Genus Leopardus

Even in the genomics era, the phylogeny of Neotropical small felids comprised in the genus Leopardus remains contentious. We used whole-genome resequencing data to construct a time-calibrated consensus phylogeny of this group, quantify phylogenomic discordance, test for interspecies introgression, and assess patterns of genetic diversity and demographic history. We infer that the Leopardus radiation started in the Early Pliocene as an initial speciation burst, followed by another in its subgenus Oncifelis during the Early Pleistocene. Our findings challenge the long-held notion that ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) and margay (L. wiedii) are sister species and instead indicate that margay is most closely related to the enigmatic Andean cat (L. jacobita), whose whole-genome data are reported here for the first time. In addition, we found that the newly sampled Andean tiger cat (L. tigrinus pardinoides) population from Colombia associates closely with Central American tiger cats (L. tigrinus oncilla). Genealogical discordance was largely attributable to incomplete lineage sorting, yet was augmented by strong gene flow between ocelot and the ancestral branch of Oncifelis, as well as between Geoffroy's cat (L. geoffroyi) and southern tiger cat (L. guttulus). Contrasting demographic trajectories have led to disparate levels of current genomic diversity, with a nearly tenfold difference in heterozygosity between Andean cat and ocelot, spanning the entire range of variability found in extant felids. Our analyses improved our understanding of the speciation history and diversity patterns in this felid radiation, and highlight the benefits to phylogenomic inference of embracing the many heterogeneous signals scattered across the genome.

Deep ancestry of Bornean hunter-gatherers supports long-term local ancestry dynamics

Borneo was a crossroad of ancient dispersals, with some of the earliest Southeast Asian human remains and rock art. The island is home to traditionally hunter-gatherer Punan communities, whose origins, whether of subsistence reversion or long-term foraging, are unclear. The connection between its past and present-day agriculturalist inhabitants, who currently speak Austronesian languages and have composite and complex genetic ancestry, is equally opaque. Here, we analyze the genetic ancestry of the northeastern Bornean Punan Batu (who still practice some mobile hunting and gathering), Tubu, and Aput. We find deep ancestry connections, with a shared Asian signal outgrouping modern and ancient Austronesian-ancestry proxies, suggesting a time depth of more than 7,500 years. They also largely lack the mainland Southeast Asian signals of agricultural Borneans, who are themselves genetically heterogeneous. Our results support long-term inhabitation of Borneo by some Punan ancestors and reveal unexpected complexity in the origins and dispersal of Austronesian-expansion-related ancestry.

Testing Times: Challenges in Disentangling Admixture Histories in Recent and Complex Demographies

Paleogenomics has expanded our knowledge of human evolutionary history. Since the 2020s, the study of ancient DNA has increased its focus on reconstructing the recent past. However, the accuracy of paleogenomic methods in answering questions of historical and archaeological importance amidst the increased demographic complexity and decreased genetic differentiation within the historical period remains an open question. We used two simulation approaches to evaluate the limitations and behavior of commonly used methods, qpAdm and the f3-statistic, on admixture inference. The first is based on branch-length data simulated from four simple demographic models of varying complexities and configurations. The second, an analysis of Eurasian history composed of 59 populations using whole-genome data modified with ancient DNA conditions such as SNP ascertainment, data missingness, and pseudo-haploidization. We show that under conditions resembling historical populations, qpAdm can identify a small candidate set of true sources and populations closely related to them. However, in typical ancient DNA conditions, qpAdm is unable to further distinguish between them, limiting its utility for resolving fine-scaled hypotheses. Notably, we find that complex gene-flow histories generally lead to improvements in the performance of qpAdm and observe no bias in the estimation of admixture weights. We offer a heuristic for admixture inference that incorporates admixture weight estimate and P-values of qpAdm models, and f3-statistics to enhance the power to distinguish between multiple plausible candidates. Finally, we highlight the future potential of qpAdm through whole-genome branch-length f2-statistics, demonstrating the improved demographic inference that could be achieved with advancements in f-statistic estimations.

Genetic and cultural adaptations underlie the establishment of dairy pastoralism in the Tibetan Plateau

BACKGROUND

Domestication and introduction of dairy animals facilitated the permanent human occupation of the Tibetan Plateau. Yet the history of dairy pastoralism in the Tibetan Plateau remains poorly understood. Little is known how Tibetans adapted to milk and dairy products.

RESULTS

We integrated archeological evidence and genetic analysis to show the picture that the dairy ruminants, together with dogs, were introduced from West Eurasia into the Tibetan Plateau since ~ 3600 years ago. The genetic admixture between the exotic and indigenous dogs enriched the candidate lactase persistence (LP) allele 10974A > G of West Eurasian origin in Tibetan dogs. In vitro experiments demonstrate that - 13838G > A functions as a LP allele in Tibetans. Unlike multiple LP alleles presenting selective signatures in West Eurasians and South Asians, the de novo origin of Tibetan-specific LP allele - 13838G > A with low frequency (~ 6-7%) and absence of selection corresponds - 13910C > T in pastoralists across eastern Eurasia steppe.

CONCLUSIONS

Results depict a novel scenario of genetic and cultural adaptations to diet and expand current understanding of the establishment of dairy pastoralism in the Tibetan Plateau.

Contrasting whole-genome and reduced representation sequencing for population demographic and adaptive inference: an alpine mammal case study

Genomes capture the adaptive and demographic history of a species, but the choice of sequencing strategy and sample size can impact such inferences. We compared whole genome and reduced representation sequencing approaches to study the population demographic and adaptive signals of the North American mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). We applied the restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) approach to 254 individuals and whole genome resequencing (WGS) approach to 35 individuals across the species range at mid-level coverage (9X) and to 5 individuals at high coverage (30X). We used ANGSD to estimate the genotype likelihoods and estimated the effective population size (Ne), population structure, and explicitly modelled the demographic history with δaδi and MSMC2. The data sets were overall concordant in supporting a glacial induced vicariance and extremely low Ne in mountain goats. We evaluated a set of climatic variables and geographic location as predictors of genetic diversity using redundancy analysis. A moderate proportion of total variance (36% for WGS and 21% for RADseq data sets) was explained by geography and climate variables; both data sets support a large impact of drift and some degree of local adaptation. The empirical similarities of WGS and RADseq presented herein reassuringly suggest that both approaches will recover large demographic and adaptive signals in a population; however, WGS offers several advantages over RADseq, such as inferring adaptive processes and calculating runs-of-homozygosity estimates. Considering the predicted climate-induced changes in alpine environments and the genetically depauperate mountain goat, the long-term adaptive capabilities of this enigmatic species are questionable.

A comparison of genomic diversity and demographic history of the North Atlantic and Southwest Atlantic southern right whales

Right whales (genus Eubalaena) were among the first, and most extensively pursued, targets of commercial whaling. However, understanding the impacts of this persecution requires knowledge of the demographic histories of these species prior to exploitation. We used deep whole genome sequencing (~40×) of 12 North Atlantic (E. glacialis) and 10 Southwest Atlantic southern (E. australis) right whales to quantify contemporary levels of genetic diversity and infer their demographic histories over time. Using coalescent- and identity-by-descent-based modelling to estimate ancestral effective population sizes from genomic data, we demonstrate that North Atlantic right whales have lived with smaller effective population sizes (Ne ) than southern right whales in the Southwest Atlantic since their divergence and describe the decline in both populations around the time of whaling. North Atlantic right whales exhibit reduced genetic diversity and longer runs of homozygosity leading to higher inbreeding coefficients compared to the sampled population of southern right whales. This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of genome-wide diversity of right whales in the western Atlantic and underscores the benefits of high coverage, genome-wide datasets to help resolve long-standing questions about how historical changes in effective population size over different time scales shape contemporary diversity estimates. This knowledge is crucial to improve our understanding of the right whales' history and inform our approaches to address contemporary conservation issues. Understanding and quantifying the cumulative impact of long-term small Ne , low levels of diversity and recent inbreeding on North Atlantic right whale recovery will be important next steps.

Ultrafast genome-wide inference of pairwise coalescence times

The pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) algorithm and its extensions infer the coalescence time of two homologous chromosomes at each genomic position. This inference is used in reconstructing demographic histories, detecting selection signatures, studying genome-wide associations, constructing ancestral recombination graphs, and more. Inference of coalescence times between each pair of haplotypes in a large data set is of great interest, as they may provide rich information about the population structure and history of the sample. Here, we introduce a new method, Gamma-SMC, which is more than 10 times faster than current methods. To obtain this speed-up, we represent the posterior coalescence time distributions succinctly as a gamma distribution with just two parameters; in contrast, PSMC and its extensions hold these in a vector over discrete intervals of time. Thus, Gamma-SMC has constant time-complexity per site, without dependence on the number of discrete time states. Additionally, because of this continuous representation, our method is able to infer times spanning many orders of magnitude and, as such, is robust to parameter misspecification. We describe how this approach works, show its performance on simulated and real data, and illustrate its use in studying recent positive selection in the 1000 Genomes Project data set.

The Impact of Modern Admixture on Archaic Human Ancestry in Human Populations

Admixture, the genetic merging of parental populations resulting in mixed ancestry, has occurred frequently throughout the course of human history. Numerous admixture events have occurred between human populations across the world, which have shaped genetic ancestry in modern humans. For example, populations in the Americas are often mosaics of different ancestries due to recent admixture events as part of European colonization. Admixed individuals also often have introgressed DNA from Neanderthals and Denisovans that may have come from multiple ancestral populations, which may affect how archaic ancestry is distributed across an admixed genome. In this study, we analyzed admixed populations from the Americas to assess whether the proportion and location of admixed segments due to recent admixture impact an individual's archaic ancestry. We identified a positive correlation between non-African ancestry and archaic alleles, as well as a slight increase of Denisovan alleles in Indigenous American segments relative to European segments in admixed genomes. We also identify several genes as candidates for adaptive introgression, based on archaic alleles present at high frequency in admixed American populations but low frequency in East Asian populations. These results provide insights into how recent admixture events between modern humans redistributed archaic ancestry in admixed genomes.

The revolution that still isn't: The origins of behavioral complexity in Homo sapiens

The behavioral origins of Homo sapiens can be traced back to the first material culture produced by our species in Africa, the Middle Stone Age (MSA). Beyond this broad consensus, the origins, patterns, and causes of behavioral complexity in modern humans remain debated. Here, we consider whether recent findings continue to support popular scenarios of: (1) a modern human 'package,' (2) a gradual and 'pan-African' emergence of behavioral complexity, and (3) a direct connection to changes in the human brain. Our geographically structured review shows that decades of scientific research have continuously failed to find a discrete threshold for a complete 'modernity package' and that the concept is theoretically obsolete. Instead of a continent-wide, gradual accumulation of complex material culture, the record exhibits a predominantly asynchronous presence and duration of many innovations across different regions of Africa. The emerging pattern of behavioral complexity from the MSA conforms to an intricate mosaic characterized by spatially discrete, temporally variable, and historically contingent trajectories. This archaeological record bears no direct relation to a simplistic shift in the human brain but rather reflects similar cognitive capacities that are variably manifested. The interaction of multiple causal factors constitutes the most parsimonious explanation driving the variable expression of complex behaviors, with demographic processes such as population structure, size, and connectivity playing a key role. While much emphasis has been given to innovation and variability in the MSA record, long periods of stasis and a lack of cumulative developments argue further against a strictly gradualistic nature in the record. Instead, we are confronted with humanity's deep, variegated roots in Africa, and a dynamic metapopulation that took many millennia to reach the critical mass capable of producing the ratchet effect commonly used to define contemporary human culture. Finally, we note a weakening link between 'modern' human biology and behavior from around 300 ka ago.

Evolutionary Genetics and Admixture in African Populations

As the ancestral homeland of our species, Africa contains elevated levels of genetic diversity and substantial population structure. Importantly, African genomes are heterogeneous: They contain mixtures of multiple ancestries, each of which have experienced different evolutionary histories. In this review, we view population genetics through the lens of admixture, highlighting how multiple demographic events have shaped African genomes. Each of these historical vignettes paints a recurring picture of population divergence followed by secondary contact. First, we give a brief overview of genetic variation in Africa and examine deep population structure within Africa, including the evidence of ancient introgression from archaic "ghost" populations. Second, we describe the genetic legacies of admixture events that have occurred during the past 10,000 years. This includes gene flow between different click-speaking Khoe-San populations, the stepwise spread of pastoralism from eastern to southern Africa, multiple migrations of Bantu speakers across the continent, as well as admixture from the Middle East and Europe into the Sahel region and North Africa. Furthermore, the genomic signatures of more recent admixture can be found in the Cape Peninsula and throughout the African diaspora. Third, we highlight how natural selection has shaped patterns of genetic variation across the continent, noting that gene flow provides a potent source of adaptive variation and that selective pressures vary across Africa. Finally, we explore the biomedical implications of population structure in Africa on health and disease and call for more ethically conducted studies of genetic variation in Africa.

Genomics, Population Divergence, and Historical Demography of the World's Largest and Endangered Butterfly, The Queen Alexandra's Birdwing

The world's largest butterfly is the microendemic Papua New Guinean Ornithoptera alexandrae. Despite years of conservation efforts to protect its habitat and breed this up-to-28-cm butterfly, this species still figures as endangered in the IUCN Red List and is only known from two allopatric populations occupying a total of only ∼140 km². Here we aim at assembling reference genomes for this species to investigate its genomic diversity, historical demography and determine whether the population is structured, which could provide guidance for conservation programs attempting to (inter)breed the two populations. Using a combination of long and short DNA reads and RNA sequencing, we assembled six reference genomes of the tribe Troidini, with four annotated genomes of O. alexandrae and two genomes of related species Ornithoptera priamus and Troides oblongomaculatus. We estimated the genomic diversity of the three species, and we proposed scenarios for the historical population demography using two polymorphism-based methods taking into account the characteristics of low-polymorphic invertebrates. Indeed, chromosome-scale assemblies reveal very low levels of nuclear heterozygosity across Troidini, which appears to be exceptionally low for O. alexandrae (lower than 0.01%). Demographic analyses demonstrate low and steadily declining Ne throughout O. alexandrae history, with a divergence into two distinct populations about 10,000 years ago. These results suggest that O. alexandrae distribution has been microendemic for a long time. It should also make local conservation programs aware of the genomic divergence of the two populations, which should not be ignored if any attempt is made to cross the two populations.

Tracing Eastern Wolf Origins From Whole-Genome Data in Context of Extensive Hybridization

Southeastern Canada is inhabited by an amalgam of hybridizing wolf-like canids, raising fundamental questions regarding their taxonomy, origins, and timing of hybridization events. Eastern wolves (Canis lycaon), specifically, have been the subject of significant controversy, being viewed as either a distinct taxonomic entity of conservation concern or a recent hybrid of coyotes (C. latrans) and grey wolves (C. lupus). Mitochondrial DNA analyses show some evidence of eastern wolves being North American evolved canids. In contrast, nuclear genome studies indicate eastern wolves are best described as a hybrid entity, but with unclear timing of hybridization events. To test hypotheses related to these competing findings we sequenced whole genomes of 25 individuals, representative of extant Canadian wolf-like canid types of known origin and levels of contemporary hybridization. Here we present data describing eastern wolves as a distinct taxonomic entity that evolved separately from grey wolves for the past ∼67,000 years with an admixture event with coyotes ∼37,000 years ago. We show that Great Lakes wolves originated as a product of admixture between grey wolves and eastern wolves after the last glaciation (∼8,000 years ago) while eastern coyotes originated as a product of admixture between "western" coyotes and eastern wolves during the last century. Eastern wolf nuclear genomes appear shaped by historical and contemporary gene flow with grey wolves and coyotes, yet evolutionary uniqueness remains among eastern wolves currently inhabiting a restricted range in southeastern Canada.

Selective sweeps linked to the colonization of novel habitats and climatic changes in a wild tomato species

Positive selection is the driving force underpinning local adaptation and leaves footprints of selective sweeps on the underlying major genes. Quantifying the timing of selection and revealing the genetic bases of adaptation in plant species occurring in steep and varying environmental gradients are crucial to predict a species' ability to colonize new niches. We use whole-genome sequence data from six populations across three different habitats of the wild tomato species Solanum chilense to infer the past demographic history and search for genes under strong positive selection. We then correlate current and past climatic projections with the demographic history, allele frequencies, the age of selection events and distribution shifts. Several selective sweeps occur at regulatory networks involved in root-hair development in low altitude and response to photoperiod and vernalization in high-altitude populations. These sweeps appear to occur in a concerted fashion in a given regulatory gene network at particular periods of substantial climatic change. Using a unique combination of genome scans and modelling of past climatic data, we quantify the timing of selection at genes likely underpinning local adaptation to semiarid habitats.

Speciation without gene-flow in hybridizing deer

Under the ecological speciation model, divergent selection acts on ecological differences between populations, gradually creating barriers to gene flow and ultimately leading to reproductive isolation. Hybridisation is part of this continuum and can both promote and inhibit the speciation process. Here, we used white-tailed (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (O. hemionus) to investigate patterns of speciation in hybridizing sister species. We quantified genome-wide historical introgression and performed genome scans to look for signatures of four different selection scenarios. Despite ample modern evidence of hybridisation, we found negligible patterns of ancestral introgression and no signatures of divergence with gene flow, rather localized patterns of allopatric and balancing selection were detected across the genome. Genes under balancing selection were related to immunity, MHC and sensory perception of smell, the latter of which is consistent with deer biology. The deficiency of historical gene-flow suggests that white-tailed and mule deer were spatially separated during the glaciation cycles of the Pleistocene and genome wide differentiation accrued via genetic drift. Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities and selection against hybrids are hypothesised to be acting, and diversity correlations to recombination rates suggests these sister species are far along the speciation continuum.

Prehistoric human migration between Sundaland and South Asia was driven by sea-level rise

Rapid sea-level rise between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene transformed the Southeast Asian coastal landscape, but the impact on human demography remains unclear. Here, we create a paleogeographic map, focusing on sea-level changes during the period spanning the LGM to the present-day and infer the human population history in Southeast and South Asia using 763 high-coverage whole-genome sequencing datasets from 59 ethnic groups. We show that sea-level rise, in particular meltwater pulses 1 A (MWP1A, ~14,500-14,000 years ago) and 1B (MWP1B, ~11,500-11,000 years ago), reduced land area by over 50% since the LGM, resulting in segregation of local human populations. Following periods of rapid sea-level rises, population pressure drove the migration of Malaysian Negritos into South Asia. Integrated paleogeographic and population genomic analysis demonstrates the earliest documented instance of forced human migration driven by sea-level rise.

The impact of modern admixture on archaic human ancestry in human populations

Admixture, the genetic merging of parental populations resulting in mixed ancestry, has occurred frequently throughout the course of human history. Numerous admixture events have occurred between human populations across the world, as well as introgression between humans and archaic humans, Neanderthals and Denisovans. One example are genomes from populations in the Americas, as these are often mosaics of different ancestries due to recent admixture events as part of European colonization. In this study, we analyzed admixed populations from the Americas to assess whether the proportion and location of admixed segments due to recent admixture impact an individual’s archaic ancestry. We identified a positive correlation between non-African ancestry and archaic alleles, as well as a slight enrichment of Denisovan alleles in Indigenous American segments relative to European segments in admixed genomes. We also identify several genes as candidates for adaptive introgression, based on archaic alleles present at high frequency in admixed American populations but low frequency in East Asian populations. These results provide insights into how recent admixture events between modern humans redistributed archaic ancestry in admixed genomes.

Genetic architecture and evolution of color variation in American black bears

Color variation is a frequent evolutionary substrate for camouflage in small mammals, but the underlying genetics and evolutionary forces that drive color variation in natural populations of large mammals are mostly unexplained. The American black bear, Ursus americanus (U. americanus), exhibits a range of colors including the cinnamon morph, which has a similar color to the brown bear, U. arctos, and is found at high frequency in the American southwest. Reflectance and chemical melanin measurements showed little distinction between U. arctos and cinnamon U. americanus individuals. We used a genome-wide association for hair color as a quantitative trait in 151 U. americanus individuals and identified a single major locus (p < 10-13). Additional genomic and functional studies identified a missense alteration (R153C) in Tyrosinase-related protein 1 (TYRP1) that likely affects binding of the zinc cofactor, impairs protein localization, and results in decreased pigment production. Population genetic analyses and demographic modeling indicated that the R153C variant arose 9.36 kya in a southwestern population where it likely provided a selective advantage, spreading both northwards and eastwards by gene flow. A different TYRP1 allele, R114C, contributes to the characteristic brown color of U. arctos but is not fixed across the range.

Long-term Small Population Size, Deleterious Variation, and Altitude Adaptation in the Ethiopian Wolf, a Severely Endangered Canid

Ethiopian wolves, a canid species endemic to the Ethiopian Highlands, have been steadily declining in numbers for decades. Currently, out of 35 extant species, it is now one of the world's most endangered canids. Most conservation efforts have focused on preventing disease, monitoring movements and behavior, and assessing the geographic ranges of sub-populations. Here, we add an essential layer by determining the Ethiopian wolf's demographic and evolutionary history using high-coverage (∼40×) whole-genome sequencing from 10 Ethiopian wolves from the Bale Mountains. We observe exceptionally low diversity and enrichment of weakly deleterious variants in the Ethiopian wolves in comparison with two North American gray wolf populations and four dog breeds. These patterns are consequences of long-term small population size, rather than recent inbreeding. We infer the demographic history of the Ethiopian wolf and find it to be concordant with historic records and previous genetic analyses, suggesting Ethiopian wolves experienced a series of both ancient and recent bottlenecks, resulting in a census population size of fewer than 500 individuals and an estimated effective population size of approximately 100 individuals. Additionally, long-term small population size may have limited the accumulation of strongly deleterious recessive mutations. Finally, as the Ethiopian wolves have inhabited high-altitude areas for thousands of years, we searched for evidence of high-altitude adaptation, finding evidence of positive selection at a transcription factor in a hypoxia-response pathway [CREB-binding protein (CREBBP)]. Our findings are pertinent to continuing conservation efforts and understanding how demography influences the persistence of deleterious variation in small populations.

Merging morphological and genetic evidence to assess hybridization in Western Eurasian late Pleistocene hominins

Previous scientific consensus saw human evolution as defined by adaptive differences (behavioural and/or biological) and the emergence of Homo sapiens as the ultimate replacement of non-modern groups by a modern, adaptively more competitive group. However, recent research has shown that the process underlying our origins was considerably more complex. While archaeological and fossil evidence suggests that behavioural complexity may not be confined to the modern human lineage, recent palaeogenomic work shows that gene flow between distinct lineages (for example, Neanderthals, Denisovans, early H. sapiens) occurred repeatedly in the late Pleistocene, probably contributing elements to our genetic make-up that might have been crucial to our success as a diverse, adaptable species. Following these advances, the prevailing human origins model has shifted from one of near-complete replacement to a more nuanced view of partial replacement with considerable reticulation. Here we provide a brief introduction to the current genetic evidence for hybridization among hominins, its prevalence in, and effects on, comparative mammal groups, and especially how it manifests in the skull. We then explore the degree to which cranial variation seen in the fossil record of late Pleistocene hominins from Western Eurasia corresponds with our current genetic and comparative data. We are especially interested in understanding the degree to which skeletal data can reflect admixture. Our findings indicate some correspondence between these different lines of evidence, flag individual fossils as possibly admixed, and suggest that different cranial regions may preserve hybridization signals differentially. We urge further studies of the phenotype to expand our ability to detect the ways in which migration, interaction and genetic exchange have shaped the human past, beyond what is currently visible with the lens of ancient DNA.

Robust inference of population size histories from genomic sequencing data

Unraveling the complex demographic histories of natural populations is a central problem in population genetics. Understanding past demographic events is of general anthropological interest, but is also an important step in establishing accurate null models when identifying adaptive or disease-associated genetic variation. An important class of tools for inferring past population size changes from genomic sequence data are Coalescent Hidden Markov Models (CHMMs). These models make efficient use of the linkage information in population genomic datasets by using the local genealogies relating sampled individuals as latent states that evolve along the chromosome in an HMM framework. Extending these models to large sample sizes is challenging, since the number of possible latent states increases rapidly. Here, we present our method CHIMP (CHMM History-Inference Maximum-Likelihood Procedure), a novel CHMM method for inferring the size history of a population. It can be applied to large samples (hundreds of haplotypes) and only requires unphased genomes as input. The two implementations of CHIMP that we present here use either the height of the genealogical tree (TMRCA) or the total branch length, respectively, as the latent variable at each position in the genome. The requisite transition and emission probabilities are obtained by numerically solving certain systems of differential equations derived from the ancestral process with recombination. The parameters of the population size history are subsequently inferred using an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. In addition, we implement a composite likelihood scheme to allow the method to scale to large sample sizes. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of our method in a variety of benchmark tests using simulated data and present comparisons to other state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, our implementation using TMRCA as the latent variable shows comparable performance and provides accurate estimates of effective population sizes in intermediate and ancient times. Our method is agnostic to the phasing of the data, which makes it a promising alternative in scenarios where high quality data is not available, and has potential applications for pseudo-haploid data.

Grey wolf genomic history reveals a dual ancestry of dogs

The grey wolf (Canis lupus) was the first species to give rise to a domestic population, and they remained widespread throughout the last Ice Age when many other large mammal species went extinct. Little is known, however, about the history and possible extinction of past wolf populations or when and where the wolf progenitors of the present-day dog lineage (Canis familiaris) lived^1–8. Here we analysed 72 ancient wolf genomes spanning the last 100,000 years from Europe, Siberia and North America. We found that wolf populations were highly connected throughout the Late Pleistocene, with levels of differentiation an order of magnitude lower than they are today. This population connectivity allowed us to detect natural selection across the time series, including rapid fixation of mutations in the gene IFT88 40,000–30,000 years ago. We show that dogs are overall more closely related to ancient wolves from eastern Eurasia than to those from western Eurasia, suggesting a domestication process in the east. However, we also found that dogs in the Near East and Africa derive up to half of their ancestry from a distinct population related to modern southwest Eurasian wolves, reflecting either an independent domestication process or admixture from local wolves. None of the analysed ancient wolf genomes is a direct match for either of these dog ancestries, meaning that the exact progenitor populations remain to be located.

DNA from ancient wolves spanning 100,000 years sheds light on wolves’ evolutionary history and the genomic origin of dogs.

A polar bear paleogenome reveals extensive ancient gene flow from polar bears into brown bears

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (Ursus arctos) are sister species possessing distinct physiological and behavioural adaptations that evolved over the last 500,000 years. However, comparative and population genomics analyses have revealed that several extant and extinct brown bear populations have relatively recent polar bear ancestry, probably as the result of geographically localized instances of gene flow from polar bears into brown bears. Here, we generate and analyse an approximate 20X paleogenome from an approximately 100,000-year-old polar bear that reveals a massive prehistoric admixture event, which is evident in the genomes of all living brown bears. This ancient admixture event was not visible from genomic data derived from living polar bears. Like more recent events, this massive admixture event mainly involved unidirectional gene flow from polar bears into brown bears and occurred as climate changes caused overlap in the ranges of the two species. These findings highlight the complex reticulate paths that evolution can take within a regime of radically shifting climate.

Mitochondrial Pseudogenes Suggest Repeated Inter-Species Hybridization among Direct Human Ancestors

The hypothesis that the evolution of humans involves hybridization between diverged species has been actively debated in recent years. We present the following novel evidence in support of this hypothesis: the analysis of nuclear pseudogenes of mtDNA ("NUMTs"). NUMTs are considered "mtDNA fossils" as they preserve sequences of ancient mtDNA and thus carry unique information about ancestral populations. Our comparison of a NUMT sequence shared by humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas with their mtDNAs implies that, around the time of divergence between humans and chimpanzees, our evolutionary history involved the interbreeding of individuals whose mtDNA had diverged as much as ~4.5 Myr prior. This large divergence suggests a distant interspecies hybridization. Additionally, analysis of two other NUMTs suggests that such events occur repeatedly. Our findings suggest a complex pattern of speciation in primate/human ancestors and provide one potential explanation for the mosaic nature of fossil morphology found at the emergence of the hominin lineage. A preliminary version of this manuscript was uploaded to the preprint server BioRxiv in 2017 (10.1101/134502).

Apportioning archaic variants among modern populations

The apportionment of human genetic diversity within and between populations has been measured to understand human relatedness and demographic history. Likewise, the distribution of archaic ancestry in modern populations can be leveraged to better understand the interaction between our species and its archaic relatives. Resolving the interactions between modern and archaic human populations can be difficult, as archaic variants in modern populations have been shaped by genetic drift, bottlenecks and gene flow. Here, we investigate the distribution of archaic variation in Eurasian populations. We find that archaic ancestry coverage at the individual- and population-level present distinct patterns in modern human populations: South Asians have nearly twice the number of population-unique archaic alleles compared with Europeans or East Asians, indicating that these populations experienced differing demographic and archaic admixture events. We confirm previous observations that East Asian individuals have more Neanderthal ancestry than European individuals, but surprisingly, when we compare the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms with archaic alleles found across a population, Europeans have more Neanderthal ancestry than East Asians. We compare these results to simulated models and conclude that these patterns are consistent with multiple admixture events between modern humans and Neanderthals.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Celebrating 50 years since Lewontin's apportionment of human diversity’.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Varied diversification patterns and distinct demographic trajectories in Ethiopian montane forest bird (Aves: Passeriformes) populations separated by the Great Rift Valley

Taxon-specific characteristics and extrinsic climatic and geological forces may both shape population differentiation and speciation. In geographically and taxonomically focused investigations, differentiation may occur synchronously as species respond to the same external conditions. Conversely, when evolution is investigated in taxa with largely varying traits, population differentiation and speciation is complex and shaped by interactions of Earth's template and species-specific traits. As such, it is important to characterize evolutionary histories broadly across the tree of life, especially in geographic regions that are exceptionally diverse and under pressures from human activities such as in biodiversity hotspots. Here, using whole-genome sequencing data, we characterize genomic variation in populations of six Ethiopian Highlands forest bird species separated by a lowland biogeographic barrier, the Great Rift Valley (GRV). In all six species, populations on either side of the GRV exhibited significant but varying levels of genetic differentiation. Species' dispersal ability was negatively correlated with levels of population differentiation. Isolation with migration models indicated varied patterns of population differentiation and connectivity among populations of the focal species. We found that demographic histories-estimated for each individual-varied by both species and population but were consistent between individuals of the same species and sampling region. We found that genomic diversity varied by half an order of magnitude across species, and that this variation could largely be explained by the harmonic mean of effective population size over the past 200,000 years. Overall, we found that even in highly dispersive species like birds, the GRV acts as a substantial biogeographic barrier.

Revisiting the Evolutionary History of Pigs via De Novo Mutation Rate Estimation in A Three-generation Pedigree

The mutation rate used in the previous analyses of pig evolution and demographics was cursory and hence invited potential bias in inferring evolutionary history. Herein, we estimated the de novo mutation rate of pigs as 3.6 × 10^-9 per base per generation using high-quality whole-genome sequencing data from nine individuals in a three-generation pedigree through stringent filtering and validation. Using this mutation rate, we re-investigated the evolutionary history of pigs. The estimated divergence time of ∼ 10 kiloyears ago (KYA) between European wild and domesticated pigs was consistent with the domestication time of European pigs based on archaeological evidence. However, other divergence events inferred here were not as ancient as previously described. Our estimates suggested that Sus speciation occurred ∼ 1.36 million years ago (MYA); European wild pigs split from Asian wild pigs only ∼ 219 KYA; and south and north Chinese wild pigs split ∼ 25 KYA. Meanwhile, our results showed that the most recent divergence event between Chinese wild and domesticated pigs occurred in the Hetao plain, North China, approximately 20 KYA, supporting the possibly independent domestication in North China along the middle Yellow River. We also found that the maximum effective population size of pigs was ∼ 6 times larger than the previous estimate. An archaic migration from other Sus species originating ∼ 2 MYA to European pigs was detected during western colonization of pigs; this interfered with the previous demographic inference. Our de novo mutation rate estimation and its consequences for demographic history inference reasonably provide a new vision regarding the evolutionary history of pigs.

Inferring Population Histories for Ancient Genomes Using Genome-Wide Genealogies

Ancient genomes anchor genealogies in directly observed historical genetic variation and contextualize ancestral lineages with archaeological insights into their geography and cultural associations. However, the majority of ancient genomes are of lower coverage and cannot be directly built into genealogies. Here, we present a fast and scalable method, Colate, the first approach for inferring ancestral relationships through time between low-coverage genomes without requiring phasing or imputation. Our approach leverages sharing patterns of mutations dated using a genealogy to infer coalescence rates. For deeply sequenced ancient genomes, we additionally introduce an extension of the Relate algorithm for joint inference of genealogies incorporating such genomes. Application to 278 present-day and 430 ancient DNA samples of >0.5x mean coverage allows us to identify dynamic population structure and directional gene flow between early farmer and European hunter-gatherer groups. We further show that the previously reported, but still unexplained, increase in the TCC/TTC mutation rate, which is strongest in West Eurasia today, was already present at similar strength and widespread in the Late Glacial Period ~10k-15k years ago, but is not observed in samples >30k years old. It is strongest in Neolithic farmers, and highly correlated with recent coalescence rates between other genomes and a 10,000-year-old Anatolian hunter-gatherer. This suggests gene-flow among ancient peoples postdating the last glacial maximum as widespread and localizes the driver of this mutational signal in both time and geography in that region. Our approach should be widely applicable in future for addressing other evolutionary questions, and in other species.

The genomic history of the Middle East

The Middle East region is important to understand human evolution and migrations but is underrepresented in genomic studies. Here, we generated 137 high-coverage physically phased genome sequences from eight Middle Eastern populations using linked-read sequencing. We found no genetic traces of early expansions out-of-Africa in present-day populations but found Arabians have elevated Basal Eurasian ancestry that dilutes their Neanderthal ancestry. Population sizes within the region started diverging 15–20 kya, when Levantines expanded while Arabians maintained smaller populations that derived ancestry from local hunter-gatherers. Arabians suffered a population bottleneck around the aridification of Arabia 6 kya, while Levantines had a distinct bottleneck overlapping the 4.2 kya aridification event. We found an association between movement and admixture of populations in the region and the spread of Semitic languages. Finally, we identify variants that show evidence of selection, including polygenic selection. Our results provide detailed insights into the genomic and selective histories of the Middle East.

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Middle Easterners do not have ancestry from an early out-of-Africa expansion

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Basal Eurasian and African ancestry in Arabians deplete their Neanderthal ancestry

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Populations experienced bottlenecks overlapping aridification events

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Identification of recent single and polygenic signals of selection in Arabia

Our Tangled Family Tree: New Genomic Methods Offer Insight into the Legacy of Archaic Admixture

The archaic ancestry present in the human genome has captured the imagination of both scientists and the wider public in recent years. This excitement is the result of new studies pushing the envelope of what we can learn from the archaic genetic information that has survived for over 50,000 years in the human genome. Here, we review the most recent ten years of literature on the topic of archaic introgression, including the current state of knowledge on Neanderthal and Denisovan introgression, as well as introgression from other as-yet unidentified archaic populations. We focus this review on four topics: 1) a reimagining of human demographic history, including evidence for multiple admixture events between modern humans, Neanderthals, Denisovans, and other archaic populations; 2) state-of-the-art methods for detecting archaic ancestry in population-level genomic data; 3) how these novel methods can detect archaic introgression in modern African populations; and 4) the functional consequences of archaic gene variants, including how those variants were co-opted into novel function in modern human populations. The goal of this review is to provide a simple-to-access reference for the relevant methods and novel data, which has changed our understanding of the relationship between our species and its siblings. This body of literature reveals the large degree to which the genetic legacy of these extinct hominins has been integrated into the human populations of today.

Limits and convergence properties of the sequentially Markovian coalescent

Several methods based on the sequentially Markovian coalescent (SMC) make use of full genome sequence data from samples to infer population demographic history including past changes in population size, admixture, migration events and population structure. More recently, the original theoretical framework has been extended to allow the simultaneous estimation of population size changes along with other life history traits such as selfing or seed banking. The latter developments enhance the applicability of SMC methods to nonmodel species. Although convergence proofs have been given using simulated data in a few specific cases, an in-depth investigation of the limitations of SMC methods is lacking. In order to explore such limits, we first develop a tool inferring the best case convergence of SMC methods assuming the true underlying coalescent genealogies are known. This tool can be used to quantify the amount and type of information that can be confidently retrieved from given data sets prior to the analysis of the real data. Second, we assess the inference accuracy when the assumptions of SMC approaches are violated due to departures from the model, namely the presence of transposable elements, variable recombination and mutation rates along the sequence, and SNP calling errors. Third, we deliver a new interpretation of SMC methods by highlighting the importance of the transition matrix, which we argue can be used as a set of summary statistics in other statistical inference methods, uncoupling the SMC from hidden Markov models (HMMs). We finally offer recommendations to better apply SMC methods and build adequate data sets under budget constraints.

Estimating divergence times from DNA sequences

The patterns of genetic variation within and among individuals and populations can be used to make inferences about the evolutionary forces that generated those patterns. Numerous population genetic approaches have been developed in order to infer evolutionary history. Here, we present the "Two-Two (TT)" and the "Two-Two-outgroup (TTo)" methods; two closely related approaches for estimating divergence time based in coalescent theory. They rely on sequence data from two haploid genomes (or a single diploid individual) from each of two populations. Under a simple population-divergence model, we derive the probabilities of the possible sample configurations. These probabilities form a set of equations that can be solved to obtain estimates of the model parameters, including population split times, directly from the sequence data. This transparent and computationally efficient approach to infer population divergence time makes it possible to estimate time scaled in generations (assuming a mutation rate), and not as a compound parameter of genetic drift. Using simulations under a range of demographic scenarios, we show that the method is relatively robust to migration and that the TTo method can alleviate biases that can appear from drastic ancestral population size changes. We illustrate the utility of the approaches with some examples, including estimating split times for pairs of human populations as well as providing further evidence for the complex relationship among Neandertals and Denisovans and their ancestors.

Inferring number of populations and changes in connectivity under the n-island model

Inferring the demographic history of species is one of the greatest challenges in populations genetics. This history is often represented as a history of size changes, ignoring population structure. Alternatively, when structure is assumed, it is defined a priori as a population tree and not inferred. Here we propose a framework based on the IICR (Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate). The IICR can be estimated for a single diploid individual using the PSMC method of Li and Durbin (2011). For an isolated panmictic population, the IICR matches the population size history, and this is how the PSMC outputs are generally interpreted. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that the IICR is a function of the demographic model and sampling scheme with limited connection to population size changes. Our method fits observed IICR curves of diploid individuals with IICR curves obtained under piecewise stationary symmetrical island models. In our models we assume a fixed number of time periods during which gene flow is constant, but gene flow is allowed to change between time periods. We infer the number of islands, their sizes, the periods at which connectivity changes and the corresponding rates of connectivity. Validation with simulated data showed that the method can accurately recover most of the scenario parameters. Our application to a set of five human PSMCs yielded demographic histories that are in agreement with previous studies using similar methods and with recent research suggesting ancient human structure. They are in contrast with the view of human evolution consisting of one ancestral population branching into three large continental and panmictic populations with varying degrees of connectivity and no population structure within each continent.

Genomic insights into the formation of human populations in East Asia

The deep population history of East Asia remains poorly understood owing to a lack of ancient DNA data and sparse sampling of present-day people1,2. Here we report genome-wide data from 166 East Asian individuals dating to between 6000 BC and AD 1000 and 46 present-day groups. Hunter-gatherers from Japan, the Amur River Basin, and people of Neolithic and Iron Age Taiwan and the Tibetan Plateau are linked by a deeply splitting lineage that probably reflects a coastal migration during the Late Pleistocene epoch. We also follow expansions during the subsequent Holocene epoch from four regions. First, hunter-gatherers from Mongolia and the Amur River Basin have ancestry shared by individuals who speak Mongolic and Tungusic languages, but do not carry ancestry characteristic of farmers from the West Liao River region (around 3000 BC), which contradicts theories that the expansion of these farmers spread the Mongolic and Tungusic proto-languages. Second, farmers from the Yellow River Basin (around 3000 BC) probably spread Sino-Tibetan languages, as their ancestry dispersed both to Tibet-where it forms approximately 84% of the gene pool in some groups-and to the Central Plain, where it has contributed around 59-84% to modern Han Chinese groups. Third, people from Taiwan from around 1300 BC to AD 800 derived approximately 75% of their ancestry from a lineage that is widespread in modern individuals who speak Austronesian, Tai-Kadai and Austroasiatic languages, and that we hypothesize derives from farmers of the Yangtze River Valley. Ancient people from Taiwan also derived about 25% of their ancestry from a northern lineage that is related to, but different from, farmers of the Yellow River Basin, which suggests an additional north-to-south expansion. Fourth, ancestry from Yamnaya Steppe pastoralists arrived in western Mongolia after around 3000 BC but was displaced by previously established lineages even while it persisted in western China, as would be expected if this ancestry was associated with the spread of proto-Tocharian Indo-European languages. Two later gene flows affected western Mongolia: migrants after around 2000 BC with Yamnaya and European farmer ancestry, and episodic influences of later groups with ancestry from Turan.

Origins of modern human ancestry

New finds in the palaeoanthropological and genomic records have changed our view of the origins of modern human ancestry. Here we review our current understanding of how the ancestry of modern humans around the globe can be traced into the deep past, and which ancestors it passes through during our journey back in time. We identify three key phases that are surrounded by major questions, and which will be at the frontiers of future research. The most recent phase comprises the worldwide expansion of modern humans between 40 and 60 thousand years ago (ka) and their last known contacts with archaic groups such as Neanderthals and Denisovans. The second phase is associated with a broadly construed African origin of modern human diversity between 60 and 300 ka. The oldest phase comprises the complex separation of modern human ancestors from archaic human groups from 0.3 to 1 million years ago. We argue that no specific point in time can currently be identified at which modern human ancestry was confined to a limited birthplace, and that patterns of the first appearance of anatomical or behavioural traits that are used to define Homo sapiens are consistent with a range of evolutionary histories.

SNP-Density Crossover Maps of Polymorphic Transposable Elements and HLA Genes Within MHC Class I Haplotype Blocks and Junction

The genomic region (~4 Mb) of the human major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6p21 is a prime model for the study and understanding of conserved polymorphic sequences (CPSs) and structural diversity of ancestral haplotypes (AHs)/conserved extended haplotypes (CEHs). The aim of this study was to use a set of 95 MHC genomic sequences downloaded from a publicly available BioProject database at NCBI to identify and characterise polymorphic human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I genes and pseudogenes, MICA and MICB, and retroelement indels as haplotypic lineage markers, and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) crossover loci in DNA sequence alignments of different haplotypes across the Olfactory Receptor (OR) gene region (~1.2 Mb) and the MHC class I region (~1.8 Mb) from the GPX5 to the MICB gene. Our comparative sequence analyses confirmed the identity of 12 haplotypic retroelement markers and revealed that they partitioned the HLA-A/B/C haplotypes into distinct evolutionary lineages. Crossovers between SNP-poor and SNP-rich regions defined the sequence range of haplotype blocks, and many of these crossover junctions occurred within particular transposable elements, lncRNA, OR12D2, MUC21, MUC22, PSORS1A3, HLA-C, HLA-B, and MICA. In a comparison of more than 250 paired sequence alignments, at least 38 SNP-density crossover sites were mapped across various regions from GPX5 to MICB. In a homology comparison of 16 different haplotypes, seven CEH/AH (7.1, 8.1, 18.2, 51.x, 57.1, 62.x, and 62.1) had no detectable SNP-density crossover junctions and were SNP poor across the entire ~2.8 Mb of sequence alignments. Of the analyses between different recombinant haplotypes, more than half of them had SNP crossovers within 10 kb of LTR16B/ERV3-16A3_I, MLT1, Charlie, and/or THE1 sequences and were in close vicinity to structurally polymorphic Alu and SVA insertion sites. These studies demonstrate that (1) SNP-density crossovers are associated with putative ancestral recombination sites that are widely spread across the MHC class I genomic region from at least the telomeric OR12D2 gene to the centromeric MICB gene and (2) the genomic sequences of MHC homozygous cell lines are useful for analysing haplotype blocks, ancestral haplotypic landscapes and markers, CPSs, and SNP-density crossover junctions.

DILS: Demographic inferences with linked selection by using ABC

We present DILS, a deployable statistical analysis platform for conducting demographic inferences with linked selection from population genomic data using an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. DILS takes as input single-population or two-population data sets (multilocus fasta sequences) and performs three types of analyses in a hierarchical manner, identifying: (a) the best demographic model to study the importance of gene flow and population size change on the genetic patterns of polymorphism and divergence, (b) the best genomic model to determine whether the effective size Ne and migration rate N, m are heterogeneously distributed along the genome (implying linked selection) and (c) loci in genomic regions most associated with barriers to gene flow. Also available via a Web interface, an objective of DILS is to facilitate collaborative research in speciation genomics. Here, we show the performance and limitations of DILS by using simulations and finally apply the method to published data on a divergence continuum composed by 28 pairs of Mytilus mussel populations/species.

A Late Pleistocene human humerus from Rusinga Island, Lake Victoria, Kenya

In 2010, a hominin right humerus fragment (KNM-RU 58330) was surface collected in a small gully at Nyamita North in the Late Pleistocene Wasiriya Beds of Rusinga Island, Kenya. A combination of stratigraphic and geochronological evidence suggests the specimen is likely between ∼49 and 36 ka in age. The associated fauna is diverse and dominated by semiarid grassland taxa. The small sample of associated Middle Stone Age artifacts includes Levallois flakes, cores, and retouched points. The 139 mm humeral fragment preserves the shaft from distal to the lesser tubercle to 14 mm below the distal end of the weakly projecting deltoid tuberosity. Key morphological features include a narrow and weakly marked pectoralis major insertion and a distinctive medial bend in the diaphysis at the deltoid insertion. This bend is unusual among recent human humeri but occurs in a few Late Pleistocene humeri. The dimensions of the distal end of the fragment predict a length of 317.9 ± 16.4 mm based on recent samples of African ancestry. A novel method of predicting humeral length from the distance between the middle of the pectoralis major and the bottom of the deltoid insertion predicts a length of 317.3 mm ± 17.6 mm. Cross-sectional geometry at the midshaft shows a relatively high percentage of cortical bone and a moderate degree of flattening of the shaft. The Nyamita humerus is anatomically modern in its morphology and adds to the small sample of hominins from the Late Pleistocene associated with Middle Stone Age artifacts known from East Africa. It may sample a population closely related to the people of the out-of-Africa migration.

Inference of past demography, dormancy and self-fertilization rates from whole genome sequence data

Several methods based on the Sequential Markovian coalescence (SMC) have been developed that make use of genome sequence data to uncover population demographic history, which is of interest in its own right and is a key requirement to generate a null model for selection tests. While these methods can be applied to all possible kind of species, the underlying assumptions are sexual reproduction in each generation and non-overlapping generations. However, in many plants, invertebrates, fungi and other taxa, those assumptions are often violated due to different ecological and life history traits, such as self-fertilization or long term dormant structures (seed or egg-banking). We develop a novel SMC-based method to infer 1) the rates/parameters of dormancy and of self-fertilization, and 2) the populations' past demographic history. Using simulated data sets, we demonstrate the accuracy of our method for a wide range of demographic scenarios and for sequence lengths from one to 30 Mb using four sampled genomes. Finally, we apply our method to a Swedish and a German population of Arabidopsis thaliana demonstrating a selfing rate of ca. 0.87 and the absence of any detectable seed-bank. In contrast, we show that the water flea Daphnia pulex exhibits a long lived egg-bank of three to 18 generations. In conclusion, we here present a novel method to infer accurate demographies and life-history traits for species with selfing and/or seed/egg-banks. Finally, we provide recommendations for the use of SMC-based methods for non-model organisms, highlighting the importance of the per site and the effective ratios of recombination over mutation.