Long-term effects of increased adoption of artemisinin combination therapies in Burkina Faso

Role of seasonal importation and genetic drift on selection for drug-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum in high-transmission settings

Historically Plasmodium falciparum has followed a pattern of drug resistance first appearing in low-transmission settings before spreading to high-transmission settings. Several features of low-transmission regions are hypothesized as explanations: higher chance of symptoms and treatment seeking, better treatment access, less within-host competition among clones and lower rates of recombination. Here, we test whether importation of drug-resistant parasites is more likely to lead to successful emergence and establishment in low-transmission or high-transmission periods of the same epidemiological setting, using a spatial, individual-based stochastic model of malaria and drug-resistance evolution calibrated for Burkina Faso. Upon controlling for the timing of importation of drug-resistant genotypes and examination of key model variables, we found that drug-resistant genotypes imported during the low-transmission season were (i) more susceptible to stochastic extinction due to the action of genetic drift, and (ii) more likely to lead to establishment of drug resistance when parasites are able to survive early stochastic loss due to drift. This implies that rare importation events are more likely to lead to establishment if they occur during a high-transmission season, but that constant importation (e.g. neighbouring countries with high levels of resistance) may produce a greater risk during low-transmission periods.

Assessing emergence risk of double-resistant and triple-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum

Delaying and slowing antimalarial drug resistance evolution is a priority for malaria-endemic countries. Until novel therapies become available, the mainstay of antimalarial treatment will continue to be artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Deployment of different ACTs can be optimized to minimize evolutionary pressure for drug resistance by deploying them as a set of co-equal multiple first-line therapies (MFT) rather than rotating therapies in and out of use. Here, we consider one potential detriment of MFT policies, namely, that the simultaneous deployment of multiple ACTs could drive the evolution of different resistance alleles concurrently and that these resistance alleles could then be brought together by recombination into double-resistant or triple-resistant parasites. Using an individual-based model, we compare MFT and cycling policies in malaria transmission settings ranging from 0.1% to 50% prevalence. We define a total risk measure for multi-drug resistance (MDR) by summing the area under the genotype-frequency curves (AUC) of double- and triple-resistant genotypes. When prevalence ≥ 1%, total MDR risk ranges from statistically similar to 80% lower under MFT policies than under cycling policies, irrespective of whether resistance is imported or emerges de novo. At 0.1% prevalence, there is little statistical difference in MDR risk between MFT and cycling.

Additional PfCRT mutations driven by selective pressure for improved fitness can result in the loss of piperaquine resistance and altered Plasmodium falciparum physiology

IMPORTANCE

Our study leverages gene editing techniques in Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood stage parasites to profile novel mutations in mutant PfCRT, an important mediator of piperaquine resistance, which developed in Southeast Asian field isolates or in parasites cultured for long periods of time. We provide evidence that increased parasite fitness of these lines is the primary driver for the emergence of these PfCRT variants. These mutations differentially impact parasite susceptibility to piperaquine and chloroquine, highlighting the multifaceted effects of single point mutations in this transporter. Molecular features of drug resistance and parasite physiology were examined in depth using proteoliposome-based drug uptake studies and peptidomics, respectively. Energy minimization calculations, showing how these novel mutations might impact the PfCRT structure, suggested a small but significant effect on drug interactions. This study reveals the subtle interplay between antimalarial resistance, parasite fitness, PfCRT structure, and intracellular peptide availability in PfCRT-mediated parasite responses to changing drug selective pressures.

Modeling policy interventions for slowing the spread of artemisinin-resistant pfkelch R561H mutations in Rwanda

Artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) are highly effective at treating uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but the emergence of the new pfkelch13 R561H mutation in Rwanda, associated with delayed parasite clearance, suggests that interventions are needed to slow its spread. Using a Rwanda-specific spatial calibration of an individual-based malaria model, we evaluate 26 strategies aimed at minimizing treatment failures and delaying the spread of R561H after 3, 5 and 10 years. Lengthening ACT courses and deploying multiple first-line therapies (MFTs) reduced treatment failures after 5 years when compared to the current approach of a 3-d course of artemether-lumefantrine. The best among these options (an MFT policy) resulted in median treatment failure counts that were 49% lower and a median R561H allele frequency that was 0.15 lower than under baseline. New approaches to resistance management, such as triple ACTs or sequential courses of two different ACTs, were projected to have a larger impact than longer ACT courses or MFT; these were associated with median treatment failure counts in 5 years that were 81-92% lower than the current approach. A policy response to currently circulating artemisinin-resistant genotypes in Africa is urgently needed to prevent a population-wide rise in treatment failures.

The impact of anti-malarial markets on artemisinin resistance: perspectives from Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Widespread artemisinin resistance in Africa could be catastrophic when drawing parallels with the failure of chloroquine in the 1970s and 1980s. This article explores the role of anti-malarial market characteristics in the emergence and spread of arteminisin resistance in African countries, drawing on perspectives from Burkina Faso.

METHODS

Data were collected through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. A representative sample of national policy makers, regulators, public and private sector wholesalers, retailers, clinicians, nurses, and community members were purposively sampled. Additional information was also sought via review of policy publications and grey literature on anti-malarial policies and deployment practices in Burkina Faso.

RESULTS

Thirty seven in-depth interviews and 6 focus group discussions were conducted. The study reveals that the current operational mode of anti-malarial drug markets in Burkina Faso promotes arteminisin resistance emergence and spread. The factors are mainly related to the artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) supply chain, to ACT quality, ACT prescription monitoring and to ACT access and misuse by patients.

CONCLUSION

Study findings highlight the urgent requirement to reform current characteristics of the anti-malarial drug market in order to delay the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance in Burkina Faso. Four recommendations for public policy emerged during data analysis: (1) Address the suboptimal prescription of anti-malarial drugs, (2) Apply laws that prohibit the sale of anti-malarials without prescription, (3) Restrict the availability of street drugs, (4) Sensitize the population on the value of compliance regarding correct acquisition and intake of anti-malarials. Funding systems for anti-malarial drugs in terms of availability and accessibility must also be stabilized.

Preventing antimalarial drug resistance with triple artemisinin-based combination therapies

Increasing levels of artemisinin and partner drug resistance threaten malaria control and elimination globally. Triple artemisinin-based combination therapies (TACTs) which combine artemisinin derivatives with two partner drugs are efficacious and well tolerated in clinical trials, including in areas of multidrug-resistant malaria. Whether early TACT adoption could delay the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance is a question of vital importance. Using two independent individual-based models of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology and evolution, we evaluated whether introduction of either artesunate-mefloquine-piperaquine or artemether-lumefantrine-amodiaquine resulted in lower long-term artemisinin-resistance levels and treatment failure rates compared with continued ACT use. We show that introduction of TACTs could significantly delay the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance and treatment failure, extending the useful therapeutic life of current antimalarial drugs, and improving the chances of malaria elimination. We conclude that immediate introduction of TACTs should be considered by policy makers in areas of emerging artemisinin resistance.

Antimalarial mass drug administration in large populations and the evolution of drug resistance

Mass drug administration (MDA) with antimalarials has been shown to reduce prevalence and interrupt transmission in small populations, in populations with reliable access to antimalarial drugs, and in populations where sustained improvements in diagnosis and treatment are possible. In addition, when MDA is effective it eliminates both drug-resistant parasites and drug-sensitive parasites, which has the long-term benefit of extending the useful therapeutic life of first-line therapies for all populations, not just the focal population where MDA was carried out. However, in order to plan elimination measures effectively, it is necessary to characterize the conditions under which failed MDA could exacerbate resistance. We use an individual-based stochastic model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate this risk for MDA using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), in populations where access to antimalarial treatments may not be uniformly high and where re-importation of drug-resistant parasites may be common. We find that artemisinin-resistance evolution at the kelch13 locus can be accelerated by MDA when all three of the following conditions are met: (1) strong genetic bottlenecking that falls short of elimination, (2) re-importation of artemisinin-resistant genotypes, and (3) continued selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA. Accelerated resistance levels are not immediate but follow the rebound of malaria cases post-MDA, if this is allowed to occur. Crucially, resistance is driven by the selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA and not the selection pressure exerted during the MDA itself. Second, we find that increasing treatment coverage post-MDA increases the probability of local elimination in low-transmission regions (prevalence < 2%) in scenarios with both low and high levels of drug-resistance importation. This emphasizes the importance of planning for and supporting high coverage of diagnosis and treatment post-MDA.

Two decades of molecular surveillance in Senegal reveal changes in known drug resistance mutations associated with historical drug use and seasonal malaria chemoprevention

Drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum is a major threat to malaria control efforts. We analyzed data from two decades (2000-2020) of continuous molecular surveillance of P. falciparum parasite strains in Senegal to determine how historical changes in drug administration policy may have affected parasite evolution. We profiled several known drug resistance markers and their surrounding haplotypes using a combination of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) molecular surveillance and whole-genome sequence (WGS) based population genomics. We observed rapid changes in drug resistance markers associated with the withdrawal of chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in 2003. We also observed a rapid increase in Pfcrt K76T and decline in Pfdhps A437G starting in 2014, which we hypothesize may reflect changes in resistance or fitness caused by seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Parasite populations evolve rapidly in response to drug use, and SMC preventive efficacy should be closely monitored.

National-scale simulation of human movement in a spatially coupled individual-based model of malaria in Burkina Faso

Malaria due to the Plasmodium falciparum parasite remains a threat to human health despite eradication efforts and the development of anti-malarial treatments, such as artemisinin combination therapies. Human movement and migration have been linked to the propagation of malaria on national scales, highlighting the need for the incorporation of human movement in modeling efforts. Spatially couped individual-based models have been used to study how anti-malarial resistance evolves and spreads in response to drug policy changes; however, as the spatial scale of the model increases, the challenges associated with modeling of movement also increase. In this paper we discuss the development, calibration, and validation of a movement model in the context of a national-scale, spatial, individual-based model used to study the evolution of drug resistance in the malaria parasite.

Breaking the cycle of malaria treatment failure

Treatment of symptomatic malaria became a routine component of the clinical and public health response to malaria after the second world war. However, all antimalarial drugs deployed against malaria eventually generated enough drug resistance that they had to be removed from use. Chloroquine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, and mefloquine are well known examples of antimalarial drugs to which resistance did and still does ready evolve. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are currently facing the same challenge as artemisinin resistance is widespread in Southeast Asia and emerging in Africa. Here, I review some aspects of drug-resistance management in malaria that influence the strength of selective pressure on drug-resistant malaria parasites, as well as an approach we can take in the future to avoid repeating the common mistake of deploying a new drug and waiting for drug resistance and treatment failure to arrive. A desirable goal of drug-resistance management is to reduce selection pressure without reducing the overall percentage of patients that are treated. This can be achieved by distributing multiple first-line therapies (MFT) simultaneously in the population for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria, thereby keeping treatment levels high but the overall selection pressure exerted by each individual therapy low. I review the primary reasons that make MFT a preferred resistance management option in many malaria-endemic settings, and I describe two exceptions where caution and additional analyses may be warranted before deploying MFT. MFT has shown to be feasible in practice in many endemic settings. The continual improvement and increased coverage of genomic surveillance in malaria may allow countries to implement custom MFT strategies based on their current drug-resistance profiles.

Pre-existing partner-drug resistance to artemisinin combination therapies facilitates the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance: a consensus modelling study

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum have now emerged a minimum of six times on three continents despite recommendations that all artemisinins be deployed as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Widespread resistance to the non-artemisinin partner drugs in ACTs has the potential to limit the clinical and resistance benefits provided by combination therapy. We aimed to model and evaluate the long-term effects of high levels of partner-drug resistance on the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes.

METHODS

Using a consensus modelling approach, we used three individual-based mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate the effects of pre-existing partner-drug resistance and ACT deployment on the evolution of artemisinin resistance. Each model simulates 100 000 individuals in a particular transmission setting (malaria prevalence of 1%, 5%, 10%, or 20%) with a daily time step that updates individuals' infection status, treatment status, immunity, genotype-specific parasite densities, and clinical state. We modelled varying access to antimalarial drugs if febrile (coverage of 20%, 40%, or 60%) with one primary ACT used as first-line therapy: dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL). The primary outcome was time until 0·25 580Y allele frequency for artemisinin resistance (the establishment time).

FINDINGS

Higher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistant genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. Across all models, a 10-fold increase in the frequency of partner-drug resistance genotypes on average corresponded to loss of artemisinin efficacy 2-12 years earlier. Most reductions in time to artemisinin resistance establishment were observed after an increase in frequency of the partner-drug resistance genotype from 0·0 to 0·10.

INTERPRETATION

Partner-drug resistance in ACTs facilitates the early emergence of artemisinin resistance and is a major public health concern. Higher-grade partner-drug resistance has the largest effect, with piperaquine resistance accelerating the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant alleles the most. Continued investment in molecular surveillance of partner-drug resistant genotypes to guide choice of first-line ACT is paramount.

FUNDING

Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Wellcome Trust.