Prediction of recurrent venous thrombosis in all patients with a first venous thrombotic event: The Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prediction model (L-TRRiP)

Quantitative protein mass spectrometry for multiplex measurement of coagulation and fibrinolytic proteins towards clinical application: What, why and how?

Plasma proteins involved in coagulation and fibrinolysis are essential to hemostasis. Consequently, their circulating levels and functionality are critical in bleeding and thrombosis development. Well-established laboratory tests to assess these are available; however, said tests do not allow high multiplicity, require large volumes of plasma and are often costly. A novel technology to quantify plasma proteins is quantitative protein mass spectrometry (QPMS). Aided by stable isotope-labeled internal standards a large number of proteins can be quantified in one single analytical run requiring <30 μL of plasma. This provides an opportunity to improve insight in the etiology and prognosis of bleeding and thrombotic disorders, in which the balance between different proteins plays a crucial role. This manuscript aims to give an overview of the QPMS potential applications in thrombosis and hemostasis research (quantifying the 38 proteins assigned to coagulation and fibrinolysis by the KEGG database), but also to explore the potential and hurdles if designed for clinical practice. Advantages and limitations of QPMS are described and strategies for improved analysis are proposed, using as an example the test requirements for antithrombin. Application of this technology in the future could represent a step towards individualized patient care.

Anticoagulation and compression therapy for proximal acute deep vein thrombosis

The treatment of proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs includes an initial management phase, covering the first 1 to 3 weeks, a primary treatment phase, lasting a minimum of 3 months, and a secondary treatment phase for those patients requiring continuing anticoagulation beyond the first 3 to 6 months. During the initial phase most patients with DVT can be managed as outpatients. Exclusion criteria for home treatment include high risk of bleeding, limb threatening DVT or other conditions requiring hospitalisation. Anticoagulant drugs represent the mainstay of treatment and include parenteral drugs such as unfractionated heparin or low molecular weight heparin, and oral drugs such as the vitamin K antagonists and the direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). DOACs are currently recommended as the first line of treatment for proximal DVT of the lower limbs, with no preference for one DOAC over another. Factors to consider when choosing the anticoagulant strategy include, among others, renal and liver function, underlying diseases such as cancer or the antiphospholipid syndrome, and patient preferences. Indefinite duration of anticoagulation beyond the first 3 to 6 months is recommended for patients with unprovoked DVT and patients with permanent, chronic risk factors. Two DOACs, namely apixaban and rivaroxaban, can be administered at low doses for the secondary prevention of DVT. Elastic compression stockings (ECS) have been used for decades in patients with proximal DVT with the aim of counteracting the venous hypertension generated by the vascular disorder and reducing leg edema and to prevent the post-thrombotic syndrome.

Tailored anticoagulant treatment after a first venous thromboembolism: protocol of the Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prevention (L-TRRiP) study - cohort-based randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Patients with a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) are at risk of recurrence. Recurrent VTE (rVTE) can be prevented by extended anticoagulant therapy, but this comes at the cost of an increased risk of bleeding. It is still uncertain whether patients with an intermediate recurrence risk or with a high recurrence and high bleeding risk will benefit from extended anticoagulant treatment, and whether a strategy where anticoagulant duration is tailored on the predicted risks of rVTE and bleeding can improve outcomes. The aim of the Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prevention (L-TRRiP) study is to evaluate the outcomes of tailored duration of long-term anticoagulant treatment based on individualised assessment of rVTE and major bleeding risks.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The L-TRRiP study is a multicentre, open-label, cohort-based, randomised controlled trial, including patients with a first VTE. We classify the risk of rVTE and major bleeding using the L-TRRiP and VTE-BLEED scores, respectively. After 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, patients with a low rVTE risk will discontinue anticoagulant treatment, patients with a high rVTE and low bleeding risk will continue anticoagulant treatment, whereas all other patients will be randomised to continue or discontinue anticoagulant treatment. All patients will be followed up for at least 2 years. Inclusion will continue until the randomised group consists of 608 patients; we estimate to include 1600 patients in total. The primary outcome is the combined incidence of rVTE and major bleeding in the randomised group after 2 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes include the incidence of rVTE and major bleeding, functional outcomes, quality of life and cost-effectiveness in all patients.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol was approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committee Leiden-Den Haag-Delft. Results are expected in 2028 and will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and during (inter)national conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT06087952.

External validation of the PE-SARD risk score for predicting early bleeding in acute pulmonary embolism in the RIETE Registry

INTRODUCTION

The PE-SARD score (syncope, anemia, renal dysfunction) was developed to predict the risk of major bleeding in the acute phase of pulmonary embolism (PE).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 50,686 patients with acute PE included in the RIETE registry to externally validate the PE-SARD score. We calculated the overall reliability of the PE-SARD score, as well as discrimination and calibration for predicting the risk of major bleeding at 30 days. The performance of PE-SARD was compared to the BACS and PE-CH models.

RESULTS

During the first 30 days, 640 patients (1.3 %) had a major bleeding event. The incidence of major bleeding within 30 days was 0.6 % in the PE-SARD-defined low-risk group, 1.5 % in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5 % in the high-risk group, for an OR of 2.22 (95 % CI, 2.02-2.43) for the intermediate-risk group (vs low-risk group), and 3.94 for the high-risk group (vs low-risk group). The corresponding sensitivity was 81.1 % (intermediate/high vs low risk), and specificity was 85.9 % (95 % CI, 85.8-86.1) (low/intermediate vs high risk). The applicability of PE-SARD was consistent across clinically relevant patient subgroups and over shorter time periods of follow-up (i.e., 3 and 7 days). The C-index was 0.654 and calibration was excellent. The PE-SARD bleeding score improved the major bleeding risk prediction compared with the BACS and PE-CH scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The PE-SARD score identifies PE patients with a higher risk of bleeding, which could assist providers for potentially adjusting PE management, in a framework of shared decision-making with individual patients.

The Vienna Prediction Model for identifying patients at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) have a high recurrence risk, and guidelines suggest extended-phase anticoagulation. Many patients never experience recurrence but are exposed to bleeding. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) and to evaluate if the VPM accurately identifies these patients.

METHODS

In patients with unprovoked VTE, the VPM was performed 3 weeks after anticoagulation withdrawal. Those with a predicted 1-year recurrence risk of ≤5.5% were prospectively followed. Study endpoint was recurrent VTE over 2 years.

RESULTS

A total of 818 patients received anticoagulation for a median of 3.9 months. 520 patients (65%) had a predicted annual recurrence risk of ≤5.5%. During a median time of 23.9 months, 52 patients had non-fatal recurrence. The recurrence risk was 5.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-7.2] at 1 year and 11.2% (95% CI 8.3-14) at 2 years. Model calibration was adequate after 1 year. The VPM underestimated the recurrence risk of patients with a 2-year recurrence rate of >5%. In a post-hoc analysis, the VPM's baseline hazard was recalibrated. Bootstrap validation confirmed an ideal ratio of observed and expected recurrence events. The recurrence risk was highest in men with proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism and lower in women regardless of the site of incident VTE.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective evaluation of the performance of the VPM, the 1-year rate of recurrence in patients with unprovoked VTE was 5.2%. Recalibration improved identification of patients at low recurrence risk and stratification into distinct low-risk categories.

The dos, don'ts, and nuances of thrombophilia testing

Considerable progress has been made in elucidating genetic and biologic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Despite being able to identify heritable defects in a substantial proportion of patients with VTE, testing has not, in general, proven useful in management. Despite efforts to reduce inappropriate testing, it often falls to the hematologist to consult on patients having undergone thrombophilia testing. Through a series of cases, we discuss how D-dimer testing can be helpful in VTE recurrence risk stratification in younger women as well as how to approach patients with persistently elevated D-dimer levels in the absence of thrombosis. While elevated factor VIII coagulant activity levels are a significant risk factor for a first episode of VTE, its biologic basis is not fully understood, and studies have not shown it to be a useful predictor of recurrence. Abnormal results of genetic tests for methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase or plasminogen activator 1 promoter polymorphisms may be encountered, which carry little if any thrombotic risk and should never be ordered. We also discuss protein S deficiency, the most difficult of the hereditary thrombophilias to diagnose due to a wider "normal" range in the general population as compared with protein C, the presence of both free and bound forms in plasma, and the characteristics of the various assays in use. We also present a rare type of protein C deficiency that can be missed by functional assays using an amidolytic rather than a clotting end point.

Provoked vs minimally provoked vs unprovoked VTE: does it matter?

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a multifactorial disease, and its risk depends on exposure to risk factors and predisposing conditions. Based on their strength of association with a VTE episode, risk factors are classified as major or minor and determined using a temporal pattern to be transient or persistent. All patients with VTE should receive anticoagulant treatment for at least 3 months in the absence of an absolute contraindication. Beyond this period, selected patients may be candidates for an extended phase of anticoagulation aimed at secondary VTE prevention. The risk of recurrent VTE if anticoagulation is discontinued is probably the main driver of decision-making regarding extended treatment. The risk of recurrence after VTE associated with major risk factors is low if the risk factor is no longer present. In this case, treatment can be discontinued. If the major risk factor is persistent, anticoagulation should be continued. After VTE occurring in the absence of risk factors, anticoagulation should probably be continued indefinitely if the risk for bleeding is low and preferably with minimal effective doses of anticoagulants. VTE occurring after exposure to minor risk factors is probably the most challenging situation, especially if the clinical manifestation was acute pulmonary embolism. Understanding the actual role of minor risk factors in the occurrence of VTE helps in estimating the risk of recurrence and avoiding the dangers associated with unnecessary anticoagulation. The availability of safer strategies for anticoagulation could allow personalized strategies for secondary prevention of VTE.

Genomic science of risk prediction for venous thromboembolic disease: convenient clarification or compounding complexity

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) refers to abnormal blood clots in veins occurring in 1 to 2 per 1000 individuals every year. While anticoagulant treatment can prevent VTE, it increases the risk of bleeding. This emphasizes the importance of identifying individuals with a high risk of VTE and providing prophylactic interventions to these individuals to reduce both VTE and bleeding risks. Current risk assessment of VTE is based on the combination of mainly clinical risk factors. With the identification of an increasing number of genetic variants associated with the risk of VTE, the addition of genetic findings to clinical prediction models can improve risk prediction for VTE. Especially for individuals in high-risk situations, the added value of genetic findings to clinical prediction models may have benefits such as better prophylaxis of VTE and the reduced side effects of bleeding from unnecessary treatment. Nevertheless, the question of whether these models will eventually have clinical utility remains to be proven. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on genetic risk factors for VTE, explore genetic prediction models for VTE, and discuss their clinical implications and challenges.

Circulating microRNAs predict recurrence and death following venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

Recurrent events frequently occur after venous thromboembolism (VTE) and remain difficult to predict based on established genetic, clinical, and proteomic contributors. The role of circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) has yet to be explored in detail.

OBJECTIVES

To identify circulating miRNAs predictive of recurrent VTE or death, and to interpret their mechanistic involvement.

METHODS

Data from 181 participants of a cohort study of acute VTE and 302 individuals with a history of VTE from a population-based cohort were investigated. Next-generation sequencing was performed on EDTA plasma samples to detect circulating miRNAs. The endpoint of interest was recurrent VTE or death. Penalized regression was applied to identify an outcome-relevant miRNA signature, and results were validated in the population-based cohort. The involvement of miRNAs in coregulatory networks was assessed using principal component analysis, and the associated clinical and molecular phenotypes were investigated. Mechanistic insights were obtained from target gene and pathway enrichment analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 1950 miRNAs were detected across cohorts after postprocessing. In the discovery cohort, 50 miRNAs were associated with recurrent VTE or death (cross-validated C-index, 0.65). A weighted miRNA score predicted outcome over an 8-year follow-up period (HRSD, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.98-2.88; P < .0001). The independent validation cohort validated 20 miRNAs (ORSD for score, 3.47; 95% CI, 2.37-5.07; P < .0001; cross-validated-area under the curve, 0.61). Principal component analysis revealed 5 miRNA networks with distinct relationships to clinical phenotype and outcome. Mapping of target genes indicated regulation via transcription factors and kinases involved in signaling pathways associated with fibrinolysis.

CONCLUSION

Circulating miRNAs predicted the risk of recurrence or death after VTE over several years, both in the acute and chronic phases.

Plasma levels of coagulation factors VIII and IX and risk of venous thromboembolism: Systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The associations of plasma factor VIII (FVIII) and factor IX (FIX) levels with risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) are not well defined. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of these associations.

METHODS

Random effects inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled odds ratios for comparisons across equal quartiles of the distributions and 90 % thresholds (higher versus lower), and for testing linear trends.

RESULTS

Among 15 studies (5327 cases) the pooled odds ratio of VTE for the fourth versus first quarter was 3.92 (95 % confidence interval 1.61, 5.29) for FVIII level; and among 7 studies (3498 cases) 1.57 (1.32, 1.87) for FIX level. Comparing factor levels above, versus below, the 90th percentile, the estimated pooled odds ratios were 3.00 (2.10, 4.30) for FVIII; 1.77 (1.22, 2.56) for FIX; and 4.56 (2.73, 7.63) for both FVIII and FIX considered jointly.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm increases in risk of VTE across population distributions of FVIII and FIX levels. Levels above the 90th percentile have almost twice the risk for FIX level compared to levels below; three-fold risk for FVIII level; and almost five-fold risk for both FVIII and FIX levels elevated.

Role of factor VIII, IX, and XI in venous thrombosis recurrence risk in adults and children: A systematic review

Background

Predicting recurrent venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) is challenging in clinical practice for both adults and children, but it is relevant for clinical management. Identifying laboratory risk factors for VTE recurrence may aid in clinical decision-making.

Objective

The goal of this systematic review is to investigate the predictive role of FVIII, IX, or XI in recurrent VTE in adult and pediatric patients with a first VTE.

Methods

A systematic review of the published literature was conducted in databases MEDLINE In-Process, Other Nonindexed Citations, MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print, EMBASE Classic + EMBASE (OvidSP), and Cochrane (Wiley). We included observational and interventional studies that comprised adults or children with a first VTE, FVIII, FIX, and/or FXI and objectively confirmed VTE recurrence. The quality in prognosis studies tool was used to assess the risk of bias.

Results

We identified 2177 unique studies, of which 19 were included (18 for adults and 1 for children). The risk of bias was overall low to moderate. The studies were heterogenous with regards to population (provoked/unprovoked primary VTE), exposure (type of assay and cut-off values), and statistical analysis results (measures of association and modeling strategy). In adults, contradictory evidence was found for FVIII and FXI as outcome predictors, while no research could establish if FIX predicts VTE recurrence. Data in pediatrics were limited. Given the extensive heterogeneity of the literature, a meta-analysis was not performed.

Conclusions

Overall, there is contradictory evidence that FVIII, FIX, or FXI predict recurrent VTE in adults and children. Addressing heterogeneity is a relevant aspect to consider in future studies investigating prognostic factors for VTE recurrence.

Preoperative coagulation biomarkers associate with survival and pulmonary embolism after surgical treatment of non-spinal skeletal metastases

BACKGROUND

Thrombotic complications are synergistic and associated with orthopedic procedures, trauma, and malignancy. Because cancer enhances coagulation activity and vice versa, we assessed preoperative biomarkers for survival and complications after treatment of pathologic fractures in non-spinal skeletal metastases.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Our study population comprised 113 actual or impending pathologic fractures in 100 patients admitted to two referral centers. Laboratory variables were collected retrospectively from patient records and analyzed related to incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) and mortality (Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses and biomarker quartiles).

RESULTS

Preoperative coagulation variables were high without exceptions. PE occurred in 12 patients at 36 post-operative days at incidence of 11% in the lower and 13% in the upper extremity fractures. Patients with fibrinogen exceeding 5 g/l (log-rank 0.022) developed PE earlier (5 to 15 days postoperatively) than others. Also, mean patient survival with normal fibrinogen range (2-4 g/l) was 34 months, whereas it halved upon elevated fibrinogen (log-rank p = 0.009). Survival in patients with FVIII levels under 326 IU/dl (Q3) was 22 months, but only 7 months if FVIII exceeded 326 IU/dl (log-rank p = 0.002). Combined elevated fibrinogen and FVIII predicted survival: for patients with levels below threshold limits was 22 months versus only 7 months when both variables exceeded the ranges (log-rank p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis to control confounders supported an independent role of fibrinogen and FVIII for survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has established fibrinogen and FVIII as potential preoperative contributors of survival and complications after treatment of metastatic fractures. These results highlight the need for novel anticoagulation and thromboprophylaxis strategies among these patients.

Incident thrombus location and predicting risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism

Background

Understanding venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk is central to determining the appropriate treatment course. Whether this risk varies after discontinuing anticoagulation or overall by type of incident event (pulmonary embolism [PE] vs deep vein thrombosis [DVT]) and by the detailed location of the DVT needs further clarification.

Methods

In this population-based inception cohort of incident VTE cases with follow-up by electronic health record review, incident DVT was categorized as distal, popliteal, or iliofemoral. We used the Fine-Gray regression model to describe the predictive association of the thrombus location with the risk of recurrence before death.

Results

Among 2766 participants with an incident event from 2002 to 2010, 1713 (62%) ceased anticoagulation and were followed for recurrent events; 301 events were observed during the 4.5 years of follow-up. Relative to participants with an incident thrombus in an iliofemoral location and no PE, those with a thrombus in a popliteal location and no PE had a similar risk of recurrence (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR], 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.57-1.19]), while those with a thrombus in a distal location and no PE and those with a thrombus that included a PE had lower risk of recurrence: aSHR, 0.34 (95% CI, 0.20-0.57); and aSHR, 0.58 (95% CI 0.45-0.76), respectively.

Conclusions

The findings of this population-based inception cohort confirm that the risk of recurrent VTE after discontinuing anticoagulants is similar after iliofemoral and popliteal DVT but is lower after distal DVT. Recurrence may be lower after PE than proximal DVT.

Extended Anticoagulation After Pulmonary Embolism: A Multicenter Observational Cohort Analysis

Background

Pulmonary embolism (PE) has a long‐term risk of adverse events, which can be prevented by extended anticoagulation. We compared clinical characteristics and outcomes between patients treated with 2‐year extended anticoagulation and those who were not, in a population who had completed an initial phase of 3 to 6 months of anticoagulant therapy after acute PE.

Methods and Results

Observational cohort analysis of patients with PE who survived an initial phase of 3 to 6 months anticoagulation. Primary efficacy outcome was all‐cause death or recurrent venous thromboembolism. Primary safety outcome was major bleeding. In total, 858 (71.5%) patients were treated with and 341 (28.5%) were treated without extended anticoagulant therapy during the active study period. Age <65 years, intermediate‐high or high‐risk index PE, normal platelet count, and the absence of concomitant antiplatelet treatment were independently associated with the prescription of extended anticoagulation. The mean duration of the active phase was 2.1±0.3 years. The adjusted rate of the primary efficacy outcome was 2.1% in the extended group and 7.7% in the nonextended group (P<0.001) for patients treated with extended anticoagulant therapy. Rate of bleeding were similar between the extended anticoagulant group and the nonextended group.

Conclusions

Extended oral anticoagulation over 2 and a half years after index PE seems to provide a net clinical benefit compared with no anticoagulation in patients with PE selected to receive extended anticoagulation. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to explore the potential benefit of extended anticoagulation in patients with PE, especially those with transient provoking factors but residual risk.

Current Knowledge on Factor V Leiden Mutation as a Risk Factor for Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Thrombophilia screening is widely done in clinical practice, and it is claimed that the extent of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk in patients with common defects is still not fully understood.

Aim

We aimed to summarize data of all observational studies prospectively assessing the association of heterozygous factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation and recurrent VTE in patients with VTE, and to calculate pooled relative risks (RR), overall and in various subgroups.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for cohort studies prospectively assessing VTE recurrence in patients with and without FVL mutation (PROSPERO: CRD42021182800). Data were extracted on cohort and study-level. The methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). RR were calculated overall and in subgroups using a random-effects model.

Results

From 31 cohorts, 24 studies were finally included summarizing 13,571 patients. Heterozygous FVL mutation was identified in 2,840 individuals (21%). The methodological quality was estimated to be high in 20 studies (83%). The overall RR was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.64), consistent across subgroups.

Conclusions

Pooling all high-quality epidemiological data, the risk of recurrent VTE was increased by 46% in patients with heterozygous FVL mutation. Against the background of established risk factors, the FVL mutation plays only a marginal role in the risk assessment for recurrent VTE.

Association of Remote History of Venous Thrombosis With Risk of Venous Thrombosis After Age 70 Years

IMPORTANCE

Previous venous thrombosis (VT) is associated with risk of future VT, but quantification of risk over the life course is poorly understood. More information is needed for clinicians to understand the association of remote history of VT with the risk of VT in older patients.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between a remote history of VT and the development of VT in older age.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Age and Thrombosis, Acquired and Genetic Risk Factors in the Elderly case-control study enrolled patients 70 years and older with VT and control individuals 70 years and older without VT between June 2008 and August 2011. The Age and Thrombosis, Acquired and Genetic Risk Factors in the Elderly study is a 2-center, population-based case-control study that was conducted in Burlington, Vermont, in the US and in Leiden, the Netherlands. Consecutively diagnosed patients with an objectively proven episode of VT (deep vein thrombosis of the leg or pulmonary embolism) were included. Control individuals were identified in the same geographic areas as the patients and were randomly selected. Data were analyzed between May 2021 and October 2021.

EXPOSURES

Self-reported remote VT (occurring >10 years before to enrollment).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the risk of VT at older age. The association of self-reported history of remote VT with VT at older age was assessed by calculating odds ratios (ORs) as estimates of relative risk with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

A total of 460 patients with VT and 456 control participants were included. There were slightly more women than men in both groups (60.2% of patients [n = 277] were women and 52.4% of control participants [n = 239] were women), and the mean (range) age of patients was 78.7 (70.0-100.9) years, which was similar to the control participants. Compared with individuals without remote VT, those with a remote history of VT had an increased risk of VT (OR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.56-4.13). The crude risk estimate was robust to adjustment and time since remote VT, that is, individuals with a VT 10 to 30 years ago (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.34-5.57) and those with a VT more than 30 years ago (OR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.21-4.84) had a an increased risk of VT. The population-attributable fraction of a remote history of VT was 7.7%.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, a remote history of VT was associated with risk of VT in older individuals. This quantification could assist clinicians in advising patients on VT prevention.

Targeted proteomics for evaluating risk of venous thrombosis following traumatic lower-leg injury or knee arthroscopy

INTRODUCTION

Patients with lower-leg cast immobilization and patients undergoing knee arthroscopy have an increased risk of venous thrombosis (VT). Guidelines are ambiguous about thromboprophylaxis use, and individual risk factors for developing VT are often ignored. To assist in VT risk stratification and guide thromboprophylaxis use, various prediction models have been developed. These models depend largely on clinical factors and provide reasonably good C-statistics of around 70%. We explored using protein levels in blood plasma measured by multiplexed quantitative targeted proteomics to predict VT. Our aim was to assess whether a VT risk prediction model based on absolute plasma protein quantification is possible.

METHODS

We used internal standards to quantify proteins in less than 10 μl plasma. We measured 270 proteins in samples from patients scheduled for knee arthroscopy or with lower-leg cast immobilization. The two prospective POT-(K)CAST trails allow complementary views of VT signature in blood, namely pre and post trauma, respectively. From approximately 3000 patients, 31 patients developed VT who were included and matched with double the number of controls.

RESULTS

Top discriminating proteins between cases and controls included APOC3, APOC4, APOC2, ATRN, F13B, and F2 in knee arthroscopy patients and APOE, SERPINF2, B2M, F13B, AFM, and C1QC in patients with lower-leg cast. A logistic regression model with cross-validation resulted in C-statistics of 88.1% (95% CI: 85.7-90.6%) and 79.6% (95% CI: 77.2-82.0%) for knee arthroscopy and cast immobilization groups respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Promising C-statistics merit further exploration of the value of proteomic tests for predicting VT risk upon additional validation.

Reference values of coagulation assays performed for thrombophilia screening after a first venous thrombosis and their intra-patient associations

INTRODUCTION

No reference values are currently available for coagulation assays performed for thrombophilia screening prescribed according to guidelines, after a first venous thromboembolic (VTE) event, and we have no idea of the intra-patient associations between results.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of consecutive prescriptions fulfilling guidelines in a French university hospital from 2010 to 2019 (n = 3842) from the Glims® laboratory information system. We collected results of 12 parameters: aPTT, PT, fibrinogen (Fg), one-stage clotting methods for factors VIII, IX, XI and II (FVIII, FIX, FXI, FII), antithrombin (using an amidolytic assay: AT), protein C and S (using clotting assays: PC and PS) and mixing tests of a lupus-anticoagulant sensitive aPTT and of DRVVT.

RESULTS

We show the results of the 12 parameters from 3603 individual files with less than 6 missing values, then describe these distributions and correlations between results from 2930 files with no missing value. We give the frequency of results described as indicating a risk of first VTE or of VTE recurrence. We propose 2 quantitative scores linking the 12 parameters at the individual level and reflecting their degree of dispersion with respect to their mean, describe the values of these scores and their associations with thrombophilic results.

CONCLUSIONS

These normal values should help laboratory workers to validate process results and to assess their degree of originality. Our 2 scores should help to determine the intra-patient plausibility of associations of results. The usefulness of these laboratory scores for predicting clinically-relevant outcomes deserves to be investigated.

Correction: Prediction of recurrent venous thrombosis in all patients with a first venous thrombotic event: The Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prediction model (L-TRRiP)

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002883.].

Glucocorticoid use and risk of first and recurrent venous thromboembolism: self-controlled case-series and cohort study

Glucocorticoid treatment increases venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. Whether this is due to the medication or the underlying disease, or affects the risk of VTE recurrence, has been difficult to determine. The aim of our present study was to quantify the risk for first and recurrent VTE associated with oral glucocorticoids use, considering the underlying disease. A total of 2547 patients with VTE from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis (MEGA) study were linked to the Dutch Pharmaceutical Statistics register. The risk of first VTE during periods of exposure with oral glucocorticoids was estimated by the self‐controlled case series method and that of recurrent VTE was examined in a cohort design. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of first VTE in the period of glucocorticoid treatment was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·55–4·80]. This IRR was 2·53 (95% CI 1·10–5·72) in the week before treatment started, 5·28 (95% CI 2·89–9·53) in the first 7 days of treatment, remained elevated afterwards and decreased to 1·55 (95% CI 0·85–3·12) after 6 months, as compared to unexposed periods. The hazard ratio for recurrence was 2·72 (95% CI 1·64–4·78) in treatment periods as compared with no treatment. The increased risk of VTE associated with oral glucocorticoid treatment is due to a combined effect of the treatment and the underlying disease, remaining high during the first months of prescription.

Advances in the Management of Acute Venous Thromboembolism and New Therapeutic Agents

Important advances in the understanding and management of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have enhanced our ability to diagnose, prevent, and treat VTE. In this narrative review, we discuss how recent advances in the understanding and management of VTE are changing practice, highlight ongoing unmet needs in VTE management, and outline how novel therapeutic targets with little or no influence on hemostasis may help address these unmet needs.

Provoked versus unprovoked venous thromboembolism: Findings from GARFIELD-VTE

INTRODUCTION

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) has a long-term risk of recurrence, dependent on the presence or absence of provoking risk factors at the time of the event.

OBJECTIVE

To compare clinical characteristics, anticoagulant patterns, and 12-month outcomes in patients with transient provoking factors, active cancer, and unprovoked VTE.

METHODS

The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD)-VTE is a prospective, observational study that enrolled 10 207 patients with objectively diagnosed VTE from 415 sites in 28 countries.

RESULTS

Patients with transient provoking factors were younger (53.0 years) and more frequently women (61.2%) than patients with unprovoked VTE (60.3 years; 43.0% women) or active cancer (63.6 years; 51.7% women). After 6 months, 59.1% of patients with transient provoking factors remained on anticoagulation, compared to 71.3% with unprovoked VTE and 47.3% with active cancer. At 12 months, this decreased to 36.7%, 51.5%, and 25.4%, respectively. The risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.62), recurrent VTE (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.62-1.14), and major bleeding (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.86-1.85) was comparable in patients with transient provoking factors and unprovoked VTE. Patients with minor and major transient provoking factors had a similar risk of recurrent VTE (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.59-1.66), but those with major transient risk factors had a lower risk of death (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.98).

CONCLUSION

At 1 year, nearly 40% of patients with transient provoking factors and slightly over half of patients with unprovoked VTE were on anticoagulant treatment. Event rates were comparable between the two groups. Risk of death was higher in patients with minor transient factors than in those with major transient factors.

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and critical appraisal

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding are infrequently used when deciding on anticoagulant treatment duration after venous thromboembolism (VTE) due to concerns about performance and validity. Our aim was to critically appraise these models by systematically summarizing data from derivation and validation studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched until November 15th, 2019. Studies on prediction models for recurrence or bleeding after at least 3 months of anticoagulation in adult patients with VTE were included. The PROBAST, ROBINS-I and RoB2 tools were used to assess risk of bias and applicability.

RESULTS

Selection yielded 18 studies evaluating 8 models for recurrence (7 on development; 9 on validation; 1 update). Generally, models for recurrent VTE appeared to perform poorly to moderately in external validation studies (C-statistics 0.39-0.66, one 0.83). However, impact studies show that HERDOO2 and Vienna prediction model may identify patients with unprovoked VTE at low recurrence risk. Sixteen studies evaluating 14 models for anticoagulation-related bleeding were identified (7 on development; 9 on validation). Although some models seemed promising in development studies, their predictive performance was poor to moderate in external validation (C-statistics 0.52-0.71). All but 3 studies were considered at high risk of bias, mainly due to limitations in the statistical analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic models for recurrence and anticoagulation-related bleeding risk often have important methodological limitations and insufficient predictive accuracy. These findings do not support their use in clinical practice to weigh risks of recurrence and bleeding when deciding on continuing anticoagulation after initial treatment of VTE.

Topical Tranexamic Acid versus Phenylephrine-lidocaine for the Treatment of Anterior Epistaxis in Patients Taking Aspirin or Clopidogrel; a Randomized Clinical Trial

INTRODUCTION

Epistaxis is one of the most prevalent complaints in the emergency department (ED), especially in patients who take antiplatelet agents. This study aimed to compare the effect of topical use of tranexamic acid (TXA) with phenylephrine-lidocaine anterior nasal packing (PANP) in controlling epistaxis of patients who take aspirin or clopidogrel.

METHODS

This prospective, double-blind, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial was conducted to compare the effect of topical use of intravenous (IV) TXA compared with PANP on controlling anterior epistaxis in patients who take aspirin or clopidogrel.

RESULTS

One hundred patients with the mean age of 59.24 ± 7.75 (45 - 75) years were studied (52% male). Two groups were similar in terms of age (p=0.81) and sex (p=0.23) distribution, diabetes mellitus (p=0.54), and hypertension (p = 0.037). The mean time to stop bleeding was 6.70 ± 2.35 minutes in the TXA group and 11.50±3.64 minutes in the PANP group (p=0.002). Bleeding recurrence occurred in 3 (6%) cases of the TXA group and 10 (20%) cases of the PANP group (p =0.03). Time to discharge from ED in the TXA group was significantly lower than the PANP group (p<0.001). The absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction, and number needed to harm of treatment with TXA for anterior nasal bleeding were 14.00% (95%CI: 1.11 - 26.89), 17.50% (95%CI: 0.60 - 37.27), and 7.14 (95%CI: 3.71 -90.43), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Topical TXA is an appropriate treatment option in bleeding cessation, and reducing re-bleeding and duration of hospital stay in patients with epistaxis who take antiplatelet agents.

Evaluation of Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence Scores in an Unprovoked Pulmonary Embolism Population: A Post-hoc Analysis of the PADIS-PE trial

BACKGROUND

We aimed to validate the Men Continue and HERDOO2 (HERDOO2), D-dimer, age, sex, hormonal therapy (DASH), and updated Vienna recurrent venous thromboembolism prediction models in a population composed entirely of first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, and to analyze the impact of the addition of the pulmonary vascular obstruction index (PVOI) on score accuracy.

METHODS

Analyses were based on the double-blind, randomized PADIS-PE trial, which included 371 unprovoked pulmonary embolism patients initially treated for 6 months, successively randomized to receive an additional 18 months of warfarin or placebo, and subsequently followed-up for 2 years.

RESULTS

The HERDOO2, DASH, and updated Vienna scores displayed C-statistics of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54-0.68), 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.66), and 0.58 (95% CI 0.51-0.66), respectively. Only the HERDOO2 score identified low recurrence risk patients (<3%/year) after anticoagulation was stopped. When added to either of the prediction models, PVOI measured at pulmonary embolism diagnosis, after 6 months of anticoagulation, or both, improved scores' C-statistics between +0.06 and +0.11 points and consistently led to identifying at least 50% of patients who experienced recurrence but in whom the scores would have indicated against extended anticoagulation.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first unprovoked pulmonary embolism, the HERDOO2 score is able to identify patients with a low recurrence risk after treatment discontinuation. Addition of PVOI improves accuracy of all scores.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: NCT00740883.

Development and validation of risk prediction models for multiple cardiovascular diseases and Type 2 diabetes

Accurate risk assessment of an individuals’ propensity to develop cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is crucial for the prevention of these conditions. Numerous published risk prediction models used for CVD risk assessment are based on conventional risk factors and include only a limited number of biomarkers. The addition of novel biomarkers can boost the discriminative ability of risk prediction models for CVDs with different pathogenesis. The present study reports the development of risk prediction models for a range of heterogeneous CVDs, including coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), as well as for Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2), a major CVD risk factor. In addition to conventional risk factors, the models incorporate various blood biomarkers and comorbidities to improve both individual and population stratification. An automatic variable selection approach was developed to generate the best set of explanatory variables for each model from the initial panel of risk factors. In total, up to 254,220 UK Biobank participants (ranging from 215,269 to 254,220 for different CVDs and DM2) were included in the analyses. The derived prediction models utilizing Cox proportional hazards regression achieved consistent discrimination performance (C-index) for all diseases: CAD, 0.794 (95% CI, 0.787–0.801); DM2, 0.909 (95% CI, 0.903–0.916); stroke, 0.778 (95% CI, 0.756–0.801); DVT, 0.743 (95% CI, 0.737–0.749); and AAA, 0.893 (95% CI, 0.874–0.912). When validated on various subpopulations, they demonstrated higher discrimination in healthier and middle-age individuals. In general, calibration of a five-year risk of developing the CVDs and DM2 demonstrated incremental overestimation of disease-related conditions amongst the highest decile of risk probabilities. In summary, the risk prediction models described were validated with high discrimination and good calibration for several CVDs and DM2. These models incorporate multiple shared predictor variables and may be integrated into a single platform to enhance clinical stratification to impact health outcomes.

Predicting the Risk of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism: Current Challenges and Future Opportunities

Acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a commonly diagnosed condition and requires treatment with anticoagulation to reduce the risk of embolisation as well as recurrent venous thrombotic events. In many cases, cessation of anticoagulation is associated with an unacceptably high risk of recurrent VTE, precipitating the use of indefinite anticoagulation. In contrast, however, continuing anticoagulation is associated with increased major bleeding events. As a consequence, it is essential to accurately predict the subgroup of patients who have the highest probability of experiencing recurrent VTE, so that treatment can be appropriately tailored to each individual. To this end, the development of clinical prediction models has aided in calculating the risk of recurrent thrombotic events; however, there are several limitations with regards to routine use for all patients with acute VTE. More recently, focus has shifted towards the utility of novel biomarkers in the understanding of disease pathogenesis as well as their application in predicting recurrent VTE. Below, we review the current strategies used to predict the development of recurrent VTE, with emphasis on the application of several promising novel biomarkers in this field.

Risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with HIV infection: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies have described a higher incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in people living with an HIV infection (PWH). However, data on the risk of recurrent VTE in this population are lacking, although this question is more important for clinical practice. This study aims to estimate the risk of recurrent VTE in PWH compared to controls and to identify risk factors for recurrence within this population.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

PWH with a first VTE were derived from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort (2003-2015), a nationwide ongoing cohort following up PWH in care in the Netherlands. Uninfected controls were derived from the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of risk factors for venous thrombosis (MEGA) follow-up study (1999-2003), a cohort of patients with a first VTE who initially participated in a case-control study in the Netherlands who were followed up for recurrent VTE. Selection was limited to persons with an index VTE suffering from deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). Participants were followed from withdrawal of anticoagulation to VTE recurrence, loss to follow-up, death, or end of study. We estimated incidence rates, cumulative incidence (accounting for competing risk of death) and hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, and whether the index event was provoked or unprovoked. When analyzing risk factors among PWH, the main focus of analysis was the role of immune markers (cluster of differentiation 4 [CD4]+ T-cell count). There were 153 PWH (82% men, median 48 years) and 4,005 uninfected controls (45% men, median 49 years) with a first VTE (71% unprovoked in PWH, 34% unprovoked in controls) available for analysis. With 40 VTE recurrences during 774 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in PWH and 635 VTE recurrences during 20,215 PYFU in controls, the incidence rates were 5.2 and 3.1 per 100 PYFU (HR: 1.70, 95% CI 1.23-2.36, p = 0.003). VTE consistently recurred more frequently per 100 PYFU in PWH in all predefined subgroups of men (5.6 versus 4.8), women (3.6 versus 1.9), and unprovoked (6.0 versus 5.2) or provoked (3.1 versus 2.1) first VTE. After adjustment, the VTE recurrence risk was higher in PWH compared to controls in the first year after anticoagulant discontinuation (HR: 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.70, p = 0.03) with higher cumulative incidences in PWH at 1 year (12.5% versus 5.6%) and 5 years (23.4% versus 15.3%) of follow-up. VTE recurred less frequently in PWH who were more immunodeficient at the first VTE, marked by a better CD4+ T-cell recovery on antiretroviral therapy and during anticoagulant therapy for the first VTE (adjusted HR: 0.81 per 100 cells/mm3 increase, 95% CI 0.67-0.97, p = 0.02). Sensitivity analyses addressing potential sources of bias confirmed our principal analyses. The main study limitations are that VTEs were adjudicated differently in the cohorts and that diagnostic practices changed during the 20-year study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the risk of recurrent VTE was elevated in PWH compared to controls. Among PWH, recurrence risk appeared to decrease with greater CD4+ T-cell recovery after a first VTE. This is relevant when deciding to (dis)continue anticoagulant therapy in PWH with otherwise unprovoked first VTE.