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Ramphal Y, Tegally H, San JE, Reichmuth ML, Hofstra M, Wilkinson E, Baxter C, de Oliveira T, Moir M. Understanding the Transmission Dynamics of the Chikungunya Virus in Africa. Pathogens 2024; 13:605. [PMID: 39057831 PMCID: PMC11279734 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens13070605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/16/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant global public health concern, especially in Africa. Since its first isolation in Tanzania in 1953, CHIKV has caused recurrent outbreaks, challenging healthcare systems in low-resource settings. Recent outbreaks in Africa highlight the dynamic nature of CHIKV transmission and the challenges of underreporting and underdiagnosis. Here, we review the literature and analyse publicly available cases, outbreaks, and genomic data, providing insights into the epidemiology, genetic diversity, and transmission dynamics of CHIKV in Africa. Our analyses reveal the circulation of geographically distinct CHIKV genotypes, with certain regions experiencing a disproportionate burden of disease. Phylogenetic analysis of sporadic outbreaks in West Africa suggests repeated emergence of the virus through enzootic spillover, which is markedly different from inferred transmission dynamics in East Africa, where the virus is often introduced from Asian outbreaks, including the recent reintroduction of the Indian Ocean lineage from the Indian subcontinent to East Africa. Furthermore, there is limited evidence of viral movement between these two regions. Understanding the history and transmission dynamics of outbreaks is crucial for effective public health planning. Despite advances in surveillance and research, diagnostic and surveillance challenges persist. This review and secondary analysis highlight the importance of ongoing surveillance, research, and collaboration to mitigate the burden of CHIKV in Africa and improve public health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yajna Ramphal
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
| | - Houriiyah Tegally
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
| | | | | | - Marije Hofstra
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
| | - Eduan Wilkinson
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
| | - Cheryl Baxter
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
| | | | - Tulio de Oliveira
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa
| | - Monika Moir
- Centre for Epidemic Response Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa; (Y.R.); (H.T.); (M.H.); (E.W.); (C.B.)
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Chen Y, Xu Y, Wang L, Liang Y, Li N, Lourenço J, Yang Y, Lin Q, Wang L, Zhao H, Cazelles B, Song H, Liu Z, Wang Z, Brady OJ, Cauchemez S, Tian H. Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends. Science 2024; 384:639-646. [PMID: 38723095 DOI: 10.1126/science.adj4427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuyang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Yangtze Eco-Environment Engineering Research Center, China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan, China
| | - Yiting Xu
- School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
| | - Lin Wang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Yilin Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Naizhe Li
- School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
| | - José Lourenço
- Católica Biomedical Research Center, Católica Medical School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Yun Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiushi Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Ligui Wang
- Center of Disease Control and Prevention, PLA, Beijing, China
| | - He Zhao
- CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Bernard Cazelles
- Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
- Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Hongbin Song
- Center of Disease Control and Prevention, PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Ziyan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zengmiao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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3
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Zhang Y, Feng W. Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on the diversity of notifiable infectious diseases: a case study in Shanghai, China. PeerJ 2024; 12:e17124. [PMID: 38495754 PMCID: PMC10941765 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.17124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024] Open
Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has not only posed significant challenges to public health but has also impacted every aspect of society and the environment. In this study, we propose an index of notifiable disease outbreaks (NDOI) to assess the impact of COVID-19 on other notifiable diseases in Shanghai, China. Additionally, we identify the critical factors influencing these diseases using multivariate statistical analysis. We collected monthly data on 34 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) and corresponding environmental and socioeconomic factors (17 indicators) from January 2017 to December 2020. The results revealed that the total number of cases and NDOI of all notifiable diseases decreased by 47.1% and 52.6%, respectively, compared to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to improved air quality as well as impacted the social economy and human life. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that population mobility, particulate matter (PM2.5), atmospheric pressure, and temperature were the primary factors influencing the spread of notifiable diseases. The NDOI is beneficial in establishing an early warning system for infectious disease epidemics at different scales. Furthermore, our findings also provide insight into the response mechanisms of notifiable diseases influenced by social and environmental factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongfang Zhang
- School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou, China
| | - Wenli Feng
- School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou, China
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Oliveira LR, Yanagi Junior T, Ferraz GAES, de Nazaré Monteiro Yanagi S, Bahuti M. Spatiotemporal variability in human thermal comfort perception in open-air spaces: application to the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:479-494. [PMID: 38177806 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02606-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Revised: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to propose bioclimatic zoning to classify human thermal comfort and discomfort in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil; both historical and future scenarios are considered. Thus, historical series (1961 to 2017) of the effective temperature index as a function of the wind (ETW) were obtained as a function of the monthly average values of the minimum, mean, and maximum dry-bulb air temperatures (tdb,min, tdb,mean, and tdb,max, respectively), in addition to the mean relative humidity ([Formula: see text], %) and mean wind speed ([Formula: see text], m s -1). The data were obtained from 34 weather stations and subjected to trend analysis by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, thus enabling the simulation of future scenarios (for 2028 and 2038). Then, to define the thermal ranges of the bioclimatic zoning, maps of ETWmin, ETWmean, and ETWmax were created from geostatistical analysis. Overall, the results show warming trends for the upcoming years in Minas Gerais municipalities. All climatic seasons showed an increase in the frequency of new classifications in the upper adjacent classes, which indicates climate warming. Therefore, when considering future scenarios for the autumn and winter seasons, attention should be given to changes in predicted thermal sensation, especially in the Central Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte Metropolitan, South/Southwest Minas, Campo das Vertentes, and Zona da Mata.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Rodrigues Oliveira
- Department of Automatic, Graduate Program in Systems and Automation Engineering, Federal University of Lavras, Lavras, Brazil
| | - Tadayuki Yanagi Junior
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Engineering School, Federal University of Lavras, Lavras, Brazil.
| | | | | | - Marcelo Bahuti
- Department of Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural Engineering Graduate Program, Federal University of Lavras, Lavras, Brazil
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Li LJ, Xu F, Xu JX, Yan Y, Su JQ, Zhu YG, Li H. Spatiotemporal Changes of Antibiotic Resistance, Potential Pathogens, and Health Risk in Kindergarten Dust. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:3919-3930. [PMID: 38353611 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c07935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/28/2024]
Abstract
The microorganisms present in kindergartens are extremely important for children's health during their three-year preschool education. To assess the risk of outdoor dust in kindergartens, the antibiotic resistome and potential pathogens were investigated in dust samples collected from 59 kindergartens in Xiamen, southeast China in both the winter and summer. Both high-throughput quantitative PCR and metagenome analysis revealed a higher richness and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in winter (P < 0.05). Besides, the bloom of ARGs and potential pathogens was evident in the urban kindergartens. The co-occurrence patterns among ARGs, mobile genetic elements (MGEs), and potential pathogens suggested some bacterial pathogens were potential hosts of ARGs and MGEs. We found a large number of high-risk ARGs in the dust; the richness and abundance of high-risk ARGs were higher in winter and urban kindergartens compared to in summer and peri-urban kindergartens, respectively. The results of the co-occurrence patterns and high-risk ARGs jointly reveal that urbanization will significantly increase the threat of urban dust to human beings and their risks will be higher in winter. This study unveils the close association between ARGs/mobile ARGs and potential pathogens and emphasizes that we should pay more attention to the health risks induced by their combination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Juan Li
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Fei Xu
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jian-Xin Xu
- Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby 2800, Denmark
| | - Yu Yan
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Huaqiao University, Xiamen 361021, China
| | - Jian-Qiang Su
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Yong-Guan Zhu
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
| | - Hu Li
- Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Ningbo Observation and Research Station, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China
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Edillo F, Ymbong RR, Navarro AO, Cabahug MM, Saavedra K. Detecting the impacts of humidity, rainfall, temperature, and season on chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes from selected sites in Cebu city, Philippines. Virol J 2024; 21:42. [PMID: 38360693 PMCID: PMC10870450 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-024-02310-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes albopictus is the secondary vector for dengue virus (DENV) in the Philippines, and also harbors chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses. This study aimed to determine the minimum infection rates (MIRs) of CHIKV, DENV serotypes, and ZIKV in Ae. albopictus collected from selected two-site categories by altitude (highland [H] and lowland [L] sites) in Cebu city, Philippines during the wet (WS) and dry seasons (DS) of 2021-2022, and to explore the relationships between these arboviral MIRs and the local weather. METHODS The viral RNA extracts in pooled and reared adult Ae. albopictus collected during the DS and WS from two-site categories were subjected to RT-PCR to amplify and detect gene loci specific for CHIKV, DENV-1 to DENV-4, and ZIKV and analyzed with the weather data. RESULTS The range of CHIKV MIRs was higher in the WS (13.61-107.38 infected individuals per 1,000 mosquitoes) than in the DS (13.22-44.12), but was similar between the two-site categories. Rainfall (RF) influenced the CHIKV MIR. The MIR ranges of both DENV-2 (WS: H = 0, L = 0; DS: H = 0-5.92; L = 0-2.6) and DENV-4 (WS: H = 0, L = 0-2.90; DS: H = 2.96-6.13, L = 0-15.63) differed by season but not between the two-site categories. Relative humidity (RH), RF, and temperature did not influence DENVs' MIRs. The MIR range of ZIKV was similar in both seasons (WS: 11.36-40.27; DS: 0-46.15) and two-site categories (H = 0-90.91, L = 0-55.56). RH and temperature influenced ZIKV MIR. CONCLUSIONS RF influenced CHIKV MIR in Ae. albopictus, whereas RH and temperature influenced that of ZIKV. Season influenced the MIRs of CHIKV and DENVs but not in ZIKV. Ae. albopictus were co-infected with CHIKV, DENVs, and ZIKV in both highland and lowland sites in Cebu city. Recommendations include all-year-round implementation of the Philippine Department of Health's 4S enhanced strategy and installation of water pipelines in rural highlands for vector and disease control. Our findings are relevant to protect public health in the tropics in this climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frances Edillo
- Mosquito Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of San Carlos- Talamban Campus, 6000, Cebu city, Philippines.
| | - Rhoniel Ryan Ymbong
- Mosquito Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of San Carlos- Talamban Campus, 6000, Cebu city, Philippines
| | - Anthoddiemn Olin Navarro
- Mosquito Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of San Carlos- Talamban Campus, 6000, Cebu city, Philippines
- Department of Science and Technology, Science Education Institute, Taguig City, Metro Manila 1631, Philippines
| | - Maureen Mathilde Cabahug
- Mosquito Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of San Carlos- Talamban Campus, 6000, Cebu city, Philippines
| | - Kristilynn Saavedra
- Mosquito Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of San Carlos- Talamban Campus, 6000, Cebu city, Philippines
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Peña-García VH, Desiree LaBeaud A, Ndenga BA, Mutuku FM, Bisanzio DA, Mordecai EA, Andrews JR. Non-household environments make a major contribution to dengue transmission: Implications for vector control. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.01.08.24301016. [PMID: 38260355 PMCID: PMC10802645 DOI: 10.1101/2024.01.08.24301016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Aedes-borne pathogens have been increasing in incidence in recent decades despite vector control activities implemented in endemic settings. Vector control for Aedes-transmitted arboviruses typically focuses on households because vectors breed in household containers and bite indoors. Yet, our recent work shows a high abundance of Aedes spp. vectors in public spaces. To investigate the impact of non-household environments on dengue transmission and control, we used field data on the number of water containers and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes in Household (HH) and Non-Household (NH) environments in two Kenyan cities, Kisumu and Ukunda, from 2019-2022. Incorporating information on human activity space, we developed an agent-based model to simulate city-wide conditions considering HH and five types of NH environments in which people move and interact with other humans and vectors during peak biting times. We additionally evaluated the outcome of vector control activities implemented in different environments in preventive (before an epidemic) and reactive (after an epidemic commences) scenarios. We estimated that over half of infections take place in NH environments, where the main spaces for transmission are workplaces, markets, and recreational locations. Accordingly, results highlight the important role of vector control activities at NH locations to reduce dengue. A greater reduction of cases is expected as control activities are implemented earlier, at higher levels of coverage, with greater effectiveness when targeting only NH as opposed to when targeting only HH. Further, local ecological factors such as the differential abundance of water containers within cities are also influential factors to consider for control. This work provides insight into the importance of vector control in both household and non-household environments in endemic settings. It highlights a specific approach to inform evidence-based decision making to target limited vector control resources for optimal control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Hugo Peña-García
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Francis M Mutuku
- Department of Environmental and Health Sciences, Technical University of Mombasa, Mombasa, Kenya
| | | | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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Celone M, Beeman S, Han BA, Potter AM, Pecor DB, Okech B, Pollett S. Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0011859. [PMID: 38194417 PMCID: PMC10775973 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-borne Alphavirus that is widespread in South America. MAYV infection often presents with non-specific febrile symptoms but may progress to debilitating chronic arthritis or arthralgia. Despite the pandemic threat of MAYV, its true distribution remains unknown. The objective of this study was to clarify the geographic distribution of MAYV using an established risk mapping framework. This consisted of generating evidence consensus scores for MAYV presence, modeling the potential distribution of MAYV in select countries across Central and South America, and estimating the population residing in areas suitable for MAYV transmission. We compiled a georeferenced compendium of MAYV occurrence in humans, animals, and arthropods. Based on an established evidence consensus framework, we integrated multiple information sources to assess the total evidence supporting ongoing transmission of MAYV within each country in our study region. We then developed high resolution maps of the disease's estimated distribution using a boosted regression tree approach. Models were developed using nine climatic and environmental covariates that are related to the MAYV transmission cycle. Using the output of our boosted regression tree models, we estimated the total population living in regions suitable for MAYV transmission. The evidence consensus scores revealed high or very high evidence of MAYV transmission in several countries including Brazil (especially the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás), Venezuela, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and French Guiana. According to the boosted regression tree models, a substantial region of South America is suitable for MAYV transmission, including north and central Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname. Some regions (e.g., Guyana) with only moderate evidence of known transmission were identified as highly suitable for MAYV. We estimate that approximately 58.9 million people (95% CI: 21.4-100.4) in Central and South America live in areas that may be suitable for MAYV transmission, including 46.2 million people (95% CI: 17.6-68.9) in Brazil. Our results may assist in prioritizing high-risk areas for vector control, human disease surveillance and ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Celone
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Sean Beeman
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, United States of America
| | - Alexander M. Potter
- One Health Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
- Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit, Smithsonian Museum Support Center, Suitland, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution—National Museum of Natural History (NMNH), Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - David B. Pecor
- One Health Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
- Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit, Smithsonian Museum Support Center, Suitland, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution—National Museum of Natural History (NMNH), Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Bernard Okech
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Simon Pollett
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
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9
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Nielsen JB, Holladay JD, Burningham AJ, Rapier-Sharman N, Ramsey JS, Skaggs TB, Nordin GP, Pickett BE, Woolley AT. Monolithic affinity columns in 3D printed microfluidics for chikungunya RNA detection. Anal Bioanal Chem 2023; 415:7057-7065. [PMID: 37801120 PMCID: PMC10840819 DOI: 10.1007/s00216-023-04971-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne pathogens plague much of the world, yet rapid and simple diagnosis is not available for many affected patients. Using a custom stereolithography 3D printer, we created microfluidic devices with affinity monoliths that could retain, noncovalently attach a fluorescent tag, and detect oligonucleotide and viral RNA. We optimized the fluorescent binding and sample load times using an oligonucleotide sequence from chikungunya virus (CHIKV). We also tested the specificity of CHIKV capture relative to genetically similar Sindbis virus. Moreover, viral RNA from both viruses was flowed through capture columns to study the efficiency and specificity of the column for viral CHIKV. We detected ~107 loaded viral genome copies, which was similar to levels in clinical samples during acute infection. These results show considerable promise for development of this platform into a rapid mosquito-borne viral pathogen detection system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob B Nielsen
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - James D Holladay
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Addalyn J Burningham
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Naomi Rapier-Sharman
- Department of Microbiology and Molecular Biology, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Joshua S Ramsey
- Department of Microbiology and Molecular Biology, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Timothy B Skaggs
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Gregory P Nordin
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Brett E Pickett
- Department of Microbiology and Molecular Biology, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Adam T Woolley
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA.
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10
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Wang Y, Zhao S, Wei Y, Li K, Jiang X, Li C, Ren C, Yin S, Ho J, Ran J, Han L, Zee BCY, Chong KC. Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:645-655. [PMID: 37440763 PMCID: PMC10333599 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yawen Wang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kehang Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Conglu Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Chao Ren
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Yin
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Janice Ho
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lefei Han
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Benny Chung-ying Zee
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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Delrieu M, Martinet JP, O’Connor O, Viennet E, Menkes C, Burtet-Sarramegna V, Frentiu FD, Dupont-Rouzeyrol M. Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. CURRENT RESEARCH IN PARASITOLOGY & VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 2023; 4:100139. [PMID: 37719233 PMCID: PMC10500480 DOI: 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2023.100139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Méryl Delrieu
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Jean-Philippe Martinet
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Olivia O’Connor
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
| | - Elvina Viennet
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology,
Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia
| | - Christophe Menkes
- ENTROPIE, IRD, University of New Caledonia, University of La Réunion,
CNRS, Ifremer, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Valérie Burtet-Sarramegna
- Institute of Exact and Applied Sciences (ISEA), University of New
Caledonia, 45 Avenue James Cook - BP R4 98 851 - Nouméa Cedex, New
Caledonia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, And Centre for Immunology and Infection
Control, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4000,
Australia
| | - Myrielle Dupont-Rouzeyrol
- Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Institut Pasteur International
Network, URE Dengue et Arborises, Nouméa 98845, New Caledonia
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12
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Brown JJ, Pascual M, Wimberly MC, Johnson LR, Murdock CC. Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:1029-1049. [PMID: 37349261 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joel J Brown
- Department of Entomology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Michael C Wimberly
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
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Saeed A, Ali S, Khan F, Muhammad S, Reboita MS, Khan AW, Goheer MA, Khan MA, Kumar R, Ikram A, Jabeen A, Pongpanich S. Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2023; 45:3489-3505. [PMID: 36367603 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-022-01429-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alia Saeed
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Shaukat Ali
- Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Firdos Khan
- School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Sher Muhammad
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | | | - Muhammad Arif Goheer
- Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | | | - Ramesh Kumar
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan.
- College of Public Health Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
| | - Aamer Ikram
- National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Aliya Jabeen
- National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan
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14
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López MS, Gómez AA, Müller GV, Walker E, Robert MA, Estallo EL. Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:57008. [PMID: 37224070 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector's biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America. METHODS We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976-1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998-2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector. RESULTS The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.
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Affiliation(s)
- María S López
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Santa Fe, Argentina
- Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina
| | - Andre A Gómez
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Santa Fe, Argentina
- Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina
| | - Gabriela V Müller
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Santa Fe, Argentina
- Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina
| | - Elisabet Walker
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Santa Fe, Argentina
- Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina
| | - Michael A Robert
- Department of Mathematics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
- Center for Emerging, Zoonotic, and Arthropod-Borne Pathogens, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Elizabet L Estallo
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba, Córdoba Argentina
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
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Liu Y, Wang X, Tang S, Cheke RA. The relative importance of key meteorological factors affecting numbers of mosquito vectors of dengue fever. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011247. [PMID: 37053307 PMCID: PMC10128945 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2022] [Revised: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 04/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Although single factors such as rainfall are known to affect the population dynamics of Aedes albopictus, the main vector of dengue fever in Eurasia, the synergistic effects of different meteorological factors are not fully understood. To address this topic, we used meteorological data and mosquito-vector association data including Breteau and ovitrap indices in key areas of dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China, to formulate a five-stage mathematical model for Aedes albopictus population dynamics by integrating multiple meteorological factors. Unknown parameters were estimated using a genetic algorithm, and the results were analyzed by k-Shape clustering, random forest and grey correlation analysis. In addition, the population density of mosquitoes in 2022 was predicted and used for evaluating the effectiveness of the model. We found that there is spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects of temperature and rainfall and their distribution characteristics on the diapause period, the numbers of peaks in mosquito densities in summer and the annual total numbers of adult mosquitoes. Moreover, we identified the key meteorological indicators of the mosquito quantity at each stage and that rainfall (seasonal rainfall and annual total rainfall) was more important than the temperature distribution (seasonal average temperature and temperature index) and the uniformity of rainfall annual distribution (coefficient of variation) for most of the areas studied. The peak rainfall during the summer is the best indicator of mosquito population development. The results provide important theoretical support for the future design of mosquito vector control strategies and early warnings of mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Liu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xia Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Sanyi Tang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Robert A Cheke
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Chatham Maritime, Chatham, United Kingdom
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16
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Van Wyk H, Eisenberg JNS, Brouwer AF. Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0010839. [PMID: 37104296 PMCID: PMC10138270 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], a measure of a disease's epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a [Formula: see text], derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data for the five-year period 2015-2019 and projections for 2045-2049 by fitting cubic spline interpolations to data from simulated atmospheric data provided by the CMIP-6 project (specifically, generated by the GFDL-ESM4 model), which provides projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These four SSP scenarios correspond to varying levels of climate change severity. We applied this approach to four Brazilian cities (Manaus, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo) that represent diverse climatic regions. Our model predicts that the [Formula: see text] for Zika peaks at 2.7 around 30°C, while for dengue it peaks at 6.8 around 31°C. We find that the epidemic potential of Zika will increase beyond current levels in Brazil in all of the climate scenarios. For Manaus, we predict that the annual [Formula: see text] range will increase from 2.1-2.5, to 2.3-2.7, for Recife we project an increase from 0.4-1.9 to 0.6-2.3, for Rio de Janeiro from 0-1.9 to 0-2.3, and for São Paulo from 0-0.3 to 0-0.7. As Zika immunity wanes and temperatures increase, there will be increasing epidemic potential and longer transmission seasons, especially in regions where transmission is currently marginal. Surveillance systems should be implemented and sustained for early detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Van Wyk
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Joseph N. S. Eisenberg
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Andrew F. Brouwer
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
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17
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Modeling the spread of the Zika virus by sexual and mosquito transmission. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0270127. [PMID: 36584063 PMCID: PMC9803243 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Zika Virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that is transmitted predominantly by the Aedes species of mosquito, but also through sexual contact, blood transfusions, and congenitally from mother to child. Although approximately 80% of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic and typical symptoms are mild, multiple studies have demonstrated a causal link between ZIKV and severe diseases such as Microcephaly and Guillain Barré Syndrome. Two goals of this study are to improve ZIKV models by considering the spread dynamics of ZIKV as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and also to approximate the degree of under-reporting. In order to accomplish these objectives, we propose a compartmental model that allows for the analysis of spread dynamics as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and fit it to the ZIKV incidence reported to the National System of Public Health Surveillance in 27 municipalities of Colombia between January 1 2015 and December 31 2017. We demonstrate that our model can represent the infection patterns over this time period with high confidence. In addition, we argue that the degree of under-reporting is also well estimated. Using the model we assess potential viability of public health scenarios for mitigating disease spread and find that targeting the sexual pathway alone has negligible impact on overall spread, but if the proportion of risky sexual behavior increases then it may become important. Targeting mosquitoes remains the best approach of those considered. These results may be useful for public health organizations and governments to construct and implement suitable health policies and reduce the impact of the Zika outbreaks.
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Abud DA, Santos CY, Neto AAL, Senra JT, Tuboi S. Real world data study of prevalence and direct costs related to dengue management in Brazil's private healthcare from 2015 to 2020. Braz J Infect Dis 2022; 26:102718. [PMID: 36423695 PMCID: PMC9700264 DOI: 10.1016/j.bjid.2022.102718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Revised: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 11/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The burden of dengue in Brazil is poorly documented and is based on data from the public health care setting. This study estimated the prevalence and costs of dengue management in the private health care system in Brazil from 2015 to 2020 using a large claims database from Orizon. METHODS We selected claims with dengue ICD codes (ICD-10 A90 or A91) from January 2015 to December 2020. Prevalence was estimated based on the population enrolled in health insurance plans in the given year. Costs were adjusted for the inflation up to December 2021 and evaluated by measures of central tendency and dispersion. RESULTS A total of 63,882 unique beneficiaries were included, with a total of 64,186 dengue cases. The year with the highest prevalence was 2015 (1.6% of patients who used health plans), and there was also an increase in cases in 2016 and 2019. The median cost per hospitalization in 2015 was US$486.17, and in 2020, it reached US$696.72. The median cost of a case seen at an emergency room ranged from US$ 97.78 in 2015 to US$ 118.16 in 2017. CONCLUSIONS The estimated prevalence of dengue in this population of private health-insured patients followed the epidemiological trends of the general population in Brazil, with the highest rates in 2015, 2016, and 2019. The cost of dengue management has increased in the private health care setting over the years.
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Wang Y, Wei Y, Li K, Jiang X, Li C, Yue Q, Zee BCY, Chong KC. Impact of extreme weather on dengue fever infection in four Asian countries: A modelling analysis. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 169:107518. [PMID: 36155913 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The rapid spread of dengue fever (DF) infection has posed severe threats to global health. Environmental factors, such as weather conditions, are believed to regulate DF spread. While previous research reported inconsistent change of DF risk with varying weather conditions, few of them evaluated the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection risk. This study aims to examine the short-term associations between extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, and DF infection risk in South and Southeast Asia. A total of 35 locations in Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand were included, and weekly DF data, as well as the daily meteorological data from 2012 to 2020 were collected. A two-stage meta-analysis was used to estimate the overall effect of extreme weather conditions on the DF infection risk. Location-specific associations were obtained by the distributed lag nonlinear models. The DF infection risk appeared to increase within 1-3 weeks after extremely high temperature (e.g. lag week 2: RR = 1.074, 95 % CI: 1.022-1.129, p = 0.005). Compared with no rainfall, extreme rainfall was associated with a declined DF risk (RR = 0.748, 95 % CI: 0.620-0.903, p = 0.003), and most of the impact was across 0-3 weeks lag. In addition, the DF risk was found to be associated with more intensive extreme weathers (e.g. seven extreme rainfall days per week: RR = 0.338, 95 % CI: 0.120-0.947, p = 0.039). This study provides more evidence in support of the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection and suggests better preparation of DF control measures according to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yawen Wang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Kehang Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Conglu Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Qianying Yue
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Benny Chung-Ying Zee
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
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Poterek ML, Vogels CBF, Grubaugh ND, Ebel GD, Alex Perkins T, Cavany SM. Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220829. [PMID: 36277835 PMCID: PMC9579765 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Though instances of arthropod-borne (arbo)virus co-infection have been documented clinically, the overall incidence of arbovirus co-infection and its drivers are not well understood. Now that dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses are all in circulation across tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, it is important to understand the environmental and biological conditions that make co-infections more likely to occur. To understand this, we developed a mathematical model of co-circulation of two arboviruses, with transmission parameters approximating dengue, Zika and/or chikungunya viruses, and co-infection possible in both humans and mosquitoes. We examined the influence of seasonal timing of arbovirus co-circulation on the extent of co-infection. By undertaking a sensitivity analysis of this model, we examined how biological factors interact with seasonality to determine arbovirus co-infection transmission and prevalence. We found that temporal synchrony of the co-infecting viruses and average temperature were the most influential drivers of co-infection incidence. Our model highlights the synergistic effect of co-transmission from mosquitoes, which leads to more than double the number of co-infections than would be expected in a scenario without co-transmission. Our results suggest that appreciable numbers of co-infections are unlikely to occur except in tropical climates when the viruses co-occur in time and space.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marya L. Poterek
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Chantal B. F. Vogels
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Nathan D. Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Gregory D. Ebel
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Sean M. Cavany
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
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21
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Man OM, Fuller TL, Rosser JI, Nielsen-Saines K. Re-emergence of arbovirus diseases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The role of simultaneous viral circulation between 2014 and 2019. One Health 2022; 15:100427. [PMID: 36277093 PMCID: PMC9582545 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2022] [Revised: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The burden of arbovirus diseases in Brazil has increased within the past decade due to the emergence of chikungunya and Zika and endemic circulation of all four dengue serotypes. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may alter conditions to favor vector-host transmission and allow for cyclic re-emergence of disease. We sought to determine the impact of climate conditions on arbovirus co-circulation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika cases from Brazil's national notifiable disease information system (SINAN) and created autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) to predict arbovirus incidence accounting for the lagged effect of temperature and rainfall. Each year, we estimate that the combined arboviruses were associated with an average of 8429 to 10,047 lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). After controlling for temperature and precipitation, our model predicted a three cycle pattern where large arbovirus outbreaks appear to be primed by a smaller scale surge and followed by a lull of cases. These dynamic arbovirus patterns in Rio de Janeiro support a mechanism of susceptibility enhancement until the theoretical threshold of population immunity allows for temporary cross protection among certain arboviruses. This suspected synergy presents a major public health challenge due to overlapping locations and seasonality of arbovirus diseases, which may perpetuate disease burden and overwhelm the health system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivia M. Man
- David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA,Corresponding author at: 10833 Le Conte Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
| | - Trevon L. Fuller
- Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, 619 Charles E Young Drive East, La Kretz Hall, Suite 300, Box 951496, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Joelle I. Rosser
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, 291 Campus Drive, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Karin Nielsen-Saines
- David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
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22
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Liu Z, Xu Y, Li Y, Xu S, Li Y, Xiao L, Chen X, He C, Zheng K. Transcriptome analysis of Aedes albopictus midguts infected by dengue virus identifies a gene network module highly associated with temperature. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:173. [PMID: 35590344 PMCID: PMC9118615 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05282-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is prevalent worldwide and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Temperature is a strong driver of dengue transmission. However, little is known about the underlying mechanisms. METHODS Aedes albopictus mosquitoes exposed or not exposed to dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) were reared at 23 °C, 28 °C and 32 °C, and midguts and residual tissues were evaluated at 7 days after infection. RNA sequencing of midgut pools from the control group, midgut breakthrough group and midgut nonbreakthrough group at different temperatures was performed. The transcriptomic profiles were analyzed using the R package, followed by weighted gene correlation network analysis (WGCNA) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis to identify the important molecular mechanisms regulated by temperature. RESULTS The midgut infection rate and midgut breakthrough rate at 28 °C and 32 °C were significantly higher than those at 23 °C, which indicates that high temperature facilitates DENV-2 breakthrough in the Ae. albopictus midgut. Transcriptome sequencing was performed to investigate the antiviral mechanism in the midgut. The midgut gene expression datasets clustered with respect to temperature, blood-feeding and midgut breakthrough. Over 1500 differentially expressed genes were identified by pairwise comparisons of midguts at different temperatures. To assess key molecules regulated by temperature, we used WGCNA, which identified 28 modules of coexpressed genes; the ME3 module correlated with temperature. KEGG analysis indicated that RNA degradation, Toll and immunodeficiency factor signaling and other pathways are regulated by temperature. CONCLUSIONS Temperature affects the infection and breakthrough of Ae. albopictus midguts invaded by DENV-2, and Ae. albopictus midgut transcriptomes change with temperature. The candidate genes and key pathways regulated by temperature provide targets for the prevention and control of dengue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhuanzhuan Liu
- Department of Pathogen Biology and Immunology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Immunity and Metabolism, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China
| | - Ye Xu
- Department of Pathogen Biology, Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research of Guangdong Province, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yudi Li
- Department of Pathogen Biology and Immunology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Immunity and Metabolism, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China
| | - Shihong Xu
- Department of Pathogen Biology and Immunology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Immunity and Metabolism, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China
| | - Yiji Li
- Department of Pathogen Biology, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Ling Xiao
- Taiyuan Central Hospital, Shanxi, China
| | - Xiaoguang Chen
- Department of Pathogen Biology, Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research of Guangdong Province, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Cheng He
- Department of Pathogen Biology and Immunology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Immunity and Metabolism, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China.
| | - Kuiyang Zheng
- Department of Pathogen Biology and Immunology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Immunity and Metabolism, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China.
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23
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Scaffold stability and P14' residue steric hindrance in the differential inhibition of FXIIa by Aedes aegypti trypsin inhibitor versus Infestin-4. Biosci Rep 2022; 42:231253. [PMID: 35485437 PMCID: PMC9112662 DOI: 10.1042/bsr20220421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Revised: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Kazal-type protease inhibitors strictly regulate Factor XIIa (FXIIa), a blood-clotting serine protease. However, when negatively-charged surface of prosthetic device come into contact with FXII, it undergoes conformational change and auto-activation, leading to thrombus formation. Some research suggests that Kazal-type protease inhibitor specificity against FXIIa is governed solely by the reactive-site loop sequence, as this sequence makes most-if not all-of the direct contacts with FXIIa. Here, we sought to compare the inhibitory properties of two Kazal-type inhibitors, Infestin-4 (Inf4), a potent inhibitor of FXIIa, and Aedes aegypti trypsin inhibitor (AaTI), which does not inhibit FXIIa, to better understand Kazal-type protease specificity and determine the structural components responsible for inhibition. There are only 3 residue differences in the reactive-site loop between AaTI and Inf4. Through site-directed mutagenesis, we show that the reactive-site loop is only partially responsible for the inhibitory specificity of these proteases. The protein scaffold of AaTI is unstable due to an elongated C5C6 region. Through chimeric study, we show that swapping the protease-binding loop and the C5C6 region from Inf4 with that of AaTI can partially enhance the inhibitory activity of the AaTI_Inf4 chimera. Furthermore, the additional substitution of Asn at the P14' position of AaTI with Gly (Gly27 in Inf4) absolves the steric clashing between AaTI and the surface 140-loop of FXIIa, and increases the inhibition of the chimeric AaTI to match that of wild-type Inf4. Our findings suggest that ancillary regions in addition to the reactive-site loop sequence are important factors driving Kazal-type inhibitor specificity.
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24
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García-Carreras B, Yang B, Grabowski MK, Sheppard LW, Huang AT, Salje H, Clapham HE, Iamsirithaworn S, Doung-Ngern P, Lessler J, Cummings DAT. Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001160. [PMID: 35302985 PMCID: PMC8967062 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise. This study shows that spatially large-scale shifts in temperature can synchronize dengue dynamics across Thailand; however, as average temperatures rise, dengue dynamics may increasingly be dictated by dynamics of immunity, which may in turn mean fewer synchronous outbreaks in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Mary K. Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lawrence W. Sheppard
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- The Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Eleanor Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Pawinee Doung-Ngern
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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25
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Yellow Fever: Origin, Epidemiology, Preventive Strategies and Future Prospects. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10030372. [PMID: 35335004 PMCID: PMC8955180 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10030372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Yellow fever (YF) virus still represents a major threat in low resource countries in both South America and Africa despite the presence of an effective vaccine. YF outbreaks are not only due to insufficient vaccine coverage for insufficient vaccine supply, but also to the increase in people without history of vaccination living in endemic areas. Globalization, continuous population growth, urbanization associated with inadequate public health infrastructure, and climate changes constitute important promoting factors for the spread of this virus to tropical and subtropical areas in mosquito-infested regions capable of spreading the disease. In the present review, we focus on the origin of the virus and its transmission, representing two debated topics throughout the nineteenth century, going deeply into the history of YF vaccines until the development of the vaccine still used nowadays. Besides surveillance, we highlight the urgent need of routine immunization and vaccination campaigns associated to diverse and innovative mosquito control technologies in endemic areas for YF virus in order to minimize the risk of new YF outbreaks and the global burden of YF in the future.
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26
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Espira LM, Brouwer AF, Han BA, Foufopoulos J, Eisenberg JNS. Dilution of Epidemic Potential of Environmentally Transmitted Infectious Diseases for Species with Partially Overlapping Habitats. Am Nat 2022; 199:E43-E56. [PMID: 35077275 PMCID: PMC9136953 DOI: 10.1086/717413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/27/2023]
Abstract
AbstractSpecies diversity may play an important role in the modulation of pathogen transmission through the dilution effect. Infectious disease models can help elucidate mechanisms that may underlie this effect. While many modeling studies have assumed direct host-to-host transmission, many pathogens are transmitted through the environment. We present a mathematical modeling analysis exploring conditions under which we observe the dilution effect in systems with environmental transmission where host species interact through fully or partially overlapping habitats. We measure the strength of the dilution effect by the relative decrease in the basic reproduction number of two-species assemblages compared with that of a focal host species. We find that a dilution effect is most likely when the pathogen is environmentally persistent (frequency-dependent-like transmission). The magnitude of this effect is strongest when the species with the greater epidemic potential is relatively slow to pick up pathogens in the environment (density-dependent transmission) and the species with the lesser epidemic potential is efficient at picking up pathogens (frequency-dependent transmission). These findings suggest that measurable factors, including pathogen persistence and the host's relative efficiency of pathogen pickup, can guide predictions of when biodiversity might lead to a dilution effect and may thus give concrete direction to future ecological work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leon M. Espira
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
| | - Andrew F. Brouwer
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545
| | - Johannes Foufopoulos
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
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27
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Walvekar VA, Ramesh K, Jobichen C, Kannan M, Sivaraman J, Kini RM, Mok YK. Crystal structure of Aedes aegypti trypsin inhibitor in complex with μ-plasmin reveals role for scaffold stability in Kazal-type serine protease inhibitor. Protein Sci 2022; 31:470-484. [PMID: 34800067 PMCID: PMC8820117 DOI: 10.1002/pro.4245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 11/11/2021] [Accepted: 11/12/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Kazal-type protease inhibitor specificity is believed to be determined by sequence of the reactive-site loop that make most, if not all, contacts with the serine protease. Here, we determined the complex crystal structure of Aedes aegypti trypsin inhibitor (AaTI) with μ-plasmin, and compared its reactivities with other Kazal-type inhibitors, infestin-1 and infestin-4. We show that the shortened 99-loop of plasmin creates an S2 pocket, which is filled by phenylalanine at the P2 position of the reactive-site loop of infestin-4. In contrast, AaTI and infestin-1 retain a proline at P2, rendering the S2 pocket unfilled, which leads to lower plasmin inhibitions. Furthermore, the protein scaffold of AaTI is unstable, due to an elongated Cys-V to Cys-VI region leading to a less compact hydrophobic core. Chimeric study shows that the stability of the scaffold can be modified by swapping of this Cys-V to Cys-VI region between AaTI and infestin-4. The scaffold instability causes steric clashing of the bulky P2 residue, leading to significantly reduced inhibition of plasmin by AaTI or infestin-4 chimera. Our findings suggest that surface loops of protease and scaffold stability of Kazal-type inhibitor are both necessary for specific protease inhibition, in addition to reactive site loop sequence. PDB ID code: 7E50.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Karthik Ramesh
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore,Present address:
Department of Biophysics and BiochemistryUT Southwestern Medical CentreDallasTXUSA
| | - Chacko Jobichen
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore
| | - Muthu Kannan
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore
| | - J. Sivaraman
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore
| | - R. Manjunatha Kini
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore,Department of PharmacologyYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of SingaporeSingapore
| | - Yu Keung Mok
- Department of Biological SciencesNational University of SingaporeSingapore
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28
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Lusekelo E, Helikumi M, Kuznetsov D, Mushayabasa S. Modeling the effects of temperature and heterogeneous biting exposure on chikungunya virus disease dynamics. INFORMATICS IN MEDICINE UNLOCKED 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.imu.2022.101007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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29
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The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009773. [PMID: 34882679 PMCID: PMC8691609 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2021] [Revised: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted further south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influential cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.
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30
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Integrating Spatial Modelling and Space-Time Pattern Mining Analytics for Vector Disease-Related Health Perspectives: A Case of Dengue Fever in Pakistan. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182212018. [PMID: 34831785 PMCID: PMC8618682 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182212018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Revised: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 11/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The spatial–temporal assessment of vector diseases is imperative to design effective action plans and establish preventive strategies. Therefore, such assessments have potential public health planning-related implications. In this context, we here propose an integrated spatial disease evaluation (I-SpaDE) framework. The I-SpaDE integrates various techniques such as the Kernel Density Estimation, the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis, space–time assessment and prediction, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). It makes it possible to systematically assess the disease concentrations, patterns/trends, clustering, prediction dynamics, and spatially varying relationships between disease and different associated factors. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the I-SpaDE, we apply it in the second largest city of Pakistan, namely Lahore, using Dengue Fever (DF) during 2007–2016 as an example vector disease. The most significant clustering is evident during the years 2007–2008, 2010–2011, 2013, and 2016. Mostly, the clusters are found within the city’s central functional area. The prediction analysis shows an inclination of DF distribution from less to more urbanized areas. The results from the GWR show that among various socio-ecological factors, the temperature is the most significantly associated with the DF followed by vegetation and built-up area. While the results are important to understand the DF situation in the study area and have useful implications for public health planning, the proposed framework is flexible, replicable, and robust to be utilized in other similar regions, particularly in developing countries in the tropics and sub-tropics.
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31
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Alves LD, Lana RM, Coelho FC. A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18189493. [PMID: 34574418 PMCID: PMC8466780 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18189493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2021] [Revised: 08/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leon Diniz Alves
- Centro Federal Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro 20271-110, Brazil; or
- Computational Biology and Systems, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil
| | - Raquel Martins Lana
- Scientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; or
| | - Flávio Codeço Coelho
- School of Applied Mathematics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 22250-900, Brazil
- Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +55-21-98725-1609
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32
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Segura NA, Muñoz AL, Losada-Barragán M, Torres O, Rodríguez AK, Rangel H, Bello F. Minireview: Epidemiological impact of arboviral diseases in Latin American countries, arbovirus-vector interactions and control strategies. Pathog Dis 2021; 79:6354781. [PMID: 34410378 DOI: 10.1093/femspd/ftab043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquitoes are the most crucial insects in public health due to their vector capacity and competence to transmit pathogens, including arboviruses, bacterias and parasites. Re-emerging and emerging arboviral diseases, such as yellow fever virus (YFV), dengue virus (DENV), zika virus (ZIKV), and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), constitute one of the most critical health public concerns in Latin America. These diseases present a significant incidence within the human settlements increasing morbidity and mortality events. Likewise, among the different genus of mosquito vectors of arboviruses, those of the most significant medical importance corresponds to Aedes and Culex. In Latin America, the mosquito vector species of YFV, DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV are mainly Aedes aegypti and Ae. Albopictus. Ae. aegypti is recognized as the primary vector in urban environments, whereas Ae. albopictus, recently introduced in the Americas, is more prone to rural settings. This minireview focuses on what is known about the epidemiological impact of mosquito-borne diseases in Latin American countries, with particular emphasis on YFV, DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV, vector mosquitoes, geographic distribution, and vector-arbovirus interactions. Besides, it was analyzed how climate change and social factors have influenced the spread of arboviruses and the control strategies developed against mosquitoes in this continent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nidya A Segura
- Faculty of Science, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Tunja 150003, Colombia
| | - Ana L Muñoz
- PhD Program of Health Science, Universidad Antonio Nariño (UAN), Bogotá 110231, Colombia
| | | | - Orlando Torres
- Faculty of Veterinary, Universidad Antonio Nariño (UAN), Bogotá 110231, Colombia
| | - Anny K Rodríguez
- Faculty of Science, Universidad Antonio Nariño (UAN), Bogotá 110231, Colombia
| | - Héctor Rangel
- Laboratory of Molecular Virology, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Caracas 1204, Venezuela
| | - Felio Bello
- Faculty of Agricultural and Livestock Sciences, Program of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá 110141, Colombia
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Virome in adult Aedes albopictus captured during different seasons in Guangzhou City, China. Parasit Vectors 2021; 14:415. [PMID: 34407871 PMCID: PMC8371599 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-021-04922-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The mosquito Aedes albopictus is an important vector for many pathogens. Understanding the virome in Ae. albopictus is critical for assessing the risk of disease transmission, implementation of vector control measures, and health system strengthening. Methods In this study, viral metagenomic and PCR methods were used to reveal the virome in adult Ae. albopictus captured in different areas and during different seasons in Guangzhou, China. Results The viral composition of adult Ae. albopictus varied mainly between seasons. Over 50 viral families were found, which were specific to vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, fungi, bacteria, and protozoa. In rural areas, Siphoviridae (6.5%) was the most common viral family harbored by mosquitoes captured during winter and spring, while Luteoviridae (1.1%) was the most common viral family harbored by mosquitoes captured during summer and autumn. Myoviridae (7.0% and 1.3%) was the most common viral family in mosquitoes captured in urban areas during all seasons. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was detected by PCR in a female mosquito pool. The first near full-length HBV genome from Ae. albopictus was amplified, which showed a high level of similarity with human HBV genotype B sequences. Human parechovirus (HPeV) was detected in male and female mosquito pools, and the sequences were clustered with HPeV 1 and 3 sequences. Conclusions Large numbers of viral species were found in adult Ae. albopictus, including viruses from vertebrates, insects, and plants. The viral composition in Ae. albopictus mainly varied between seasons. Herein, we are the first to report the detection of HPeV and HBV in mosquitoes. This study not only provides valuable information for the control and prevention of mosquito-borne diseases, but it also demonstrates the feasibility of xenosurveillance. Graphical Abstract ![]()
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04922-z.
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Ngonghala CN, Ryan SJ, Tesla B, Demakovsky LR, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Bonds MH. Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210165. [PMID: 33947225 PMCID: PMC8097513 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
When a rare pathogen emerges to cause a pandemic, it is critical to understand its dynamics and the impact of mitigation measures. We use experimental data to parametrize a temperature-dependent model of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission dynamics and analyse the effects of temperature variability and control-related parameters on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the final epidemic size of ZIKV. Sensitivity analyses show that these two metrics are largely driven by different parameters, with the exception of temperature, which is the dominant driver of epidemic dynamics in the models. Our R0 estimate has a single optimum temperature (≈30°C), comparable to other published results (≈29°C). However, the final epidemic size is maximized across a wider temperature range, from 24 to 36°C. The models indicate that ZIKV is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature variation. For example, although the model predicts that ZIKV transmission cannot occur at a constant temperature below 23°C (≈ average annual temperature of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), the model predicts substantial epidemics for areas with a mean temperature of 20°C if there is seasonal variation of 10°C (≈ average annual temperature of Tampa, Florida). This suggests that the geographical range of ZIKV is wider than indicated from static R0 models, underscoring the importance of climate dynamics and variation in the context of broader climate change on emerging infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calistus N Ngonghala
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32608, USA
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32608, USA
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Blanka Tesla
- Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Leah R Demakovsky
- Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Courtney C Murdock
- Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center of Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- River Basin Center, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
- Northeast Regional Center of Excellence for Vector-borne Disease Research and the Cornell Institute for Host-Microbe Interactions and Disease, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
| | - Matthew H Bonds
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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Global Dynamics of a Reaction-Diffusion Model of Zika Virus Transmission with Seasonality. Bull Math Biol 2021; 83:43. [PMID: 33743086 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-021-00879-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 02/27/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a periodic reaction-diffusion model of Zika virus with seasonal and spatial heterogeneous structure in host and vector population. We introduce the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for this model and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], while the system admits a globally asymptotically stable positive periodic solution if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we study the Zika transmission in Rio de Janeiro Municipality, Brazil, and investigate the effects of some model parameters on [Formula: see text]. We find that the neglect of seasonality underestimates the value of [Formula: see text] and the maximum carrying capacity affects the spread of Zika virus.
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Uchenna Emeribe A, Nasir Abdullahi I, O R Ajagbe O, Egede Ugwu C, Oloche Onoja S, Dahiru Abubakar S, Modesta Umeozuru C, Sunday Animasaun O, Omoruyi Omosigho P, Mukhtar Danmusa U, Alhaji Baba Mallam M, Saidu Aminu M, Yahaya H, Oyewusi S. Incidence, drivers and global health implications of the 2019/2020 yellow fever sporadic outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa. Pathog Dis 2021; 79:6178868. [PMID: 33739369 DOI: 10.1093/femspd/ftab017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2020] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The 2019 and 2020 sporadic outbreaks of yellow fever (YF) in Sub-Saharan African countries had raised a lot of global health concerns. This article aims to narratively review the vector biology, YF vaccination program, environmental factors and climatic changes, and to understand how they could facilitate the reemergence of YF. This study comprehensively reviewed articles that focused on the interplay and complexity of YF virus (YFV) vector diversity/competence, YF vaccine immunodynamics and climatic change impacts on YFV transmission as they influence the 2019/2020 sporadic outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on available reports, vectorial migration, climatic changes and YF immunization level could be reasons for the re-mergence of YF at the community and national levels. Essentially, the drivers of YFV infection due to spillover are moderately constant. However, changes in land use and landscape have been shown to influence sylvan-to-urban spillover. Furthermore, increased precipitation and warmer temperatures due to climate change are likely to broaden the range of mosquitoes' habitat. The 2019/2020 YF outbreaks in SSA is basically a result of inadequate vaccination campaigns, YF surveillance and vector control. Consequently, and most importantly, adequate immunization coverage must be implemented and properly achieved under the responsibility of the public health stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Uchenna Emeribe
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, University of Calabar, PMB 1115, Calabar, Nigeria
| | - Idris Nasir Abdullahi
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, PMB 05 along Samaru road, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Odunayo O R Ajagbe
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Ebonyi State University, P.M.B. 053, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Charles Egede Ugwu
- Solina Center for International Research and development, 8 Libreville Crescent, Ahmadu Bello Way Wuse II, Abuja 23409, Nigeria
| | - Solomon Oloche Onoja
- Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, African Field Epidemiology Programme, Plot 801, Ebitu Ukiwe Street, Jabi, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Sharafudeen Dahiru Abubakar
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Allied Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, PMB 05 along Samaru road, Zaria, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Pius Omoruyi Omosigho
- Faculty of Pharmacy, Kaduna State University, Tafawa Balewa Way, PMB 2339, Kaduna, Nigeria
| | - Umar Mukhtar Danmusa
- Department of Medical Laboratory Science, University of Nigeria, PMB, 420001 Nsukka, Nigeria
| | - Mala Alhaji Baba Mallam
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American University of Niger, ADS Avenue, Roi Muhammed VI Du Maroc Maradi, Republique Du Niger
| | - Maijiddah Saidu Aminu
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American University of Niger, ADS Avenue, Roi Muhammed VI Du Maroc Maradi, Republique Du Niger
| | - Hadiza Yahaya
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American University of Niger, ADS Avenue, Roi Muhammed VI Du Maroc Maradi, Republique Du Niger
| | - Silifat Oyewusi
- Department of Nursing Science, Maryam Abacha American University of Niger, ADS Avenue, Roi Muhammed VI Du Maroc Maradi, Republique Du Niger
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Estofolete CF, Machado LF, Zini N, Luckemeyer GD, Moraes MM, Dos Santos TMIL, Dos Santos BF, Ruiz LGP, Vasilakis N, Lobo SMA, Nogueira ML. Presentation of fatal stroke due to SARS-CoV-2 and dengue virus coinfection. J Med Virol 2021; 93:1770-1775. [PMID: 32881018 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.26476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Herein, we report a case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and dengue coinfection, presented as a fatal stroke in our hospital, in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, a Brazilian city hyperendemic for dengue viruses and other arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) and currently facing a surge of SARS-CoV-2 cases. This case is the first described in the literature and contributes to the better understanding of clinical presentations of two important diseases in a tropical setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cassia F Estofolete
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São Paulo State, Brazil
- Hospital de Base, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Luana F Machado
- Hospital de Base, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Nathalia Zini
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São Paulo State, Brazil
| | | | - Marilia M Moraes
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Thaysa M I L Dos Santos
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São Paulo State, Brazil
| | | | | | - Nikos Vasilakis
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
- Center for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
- Center for Tropical Diseases, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
- Institute for Human Infection and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
| | - Suzana M A Lobo
- Hospital de Base, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP), São Paulo State, Brazil
- Hospital de Base, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil
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Nova N, Deyle ER, Shocket MS, MacDonald AJ, Childs ML, Rypdal M, Sugihara G, Mordecai EA. Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:415-425. [PMID: 33300663 PMCID: PMC7880875 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13652] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2020] [Accepted: 11/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole Nova
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ethan R. Deyle
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
- Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Marta S. Shocket
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Andrew J. MacDonald
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Earth Research Institute & Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Marissa L. Childs
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Martin Rypdal
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - George Sugihara
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
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Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1233. [PMID: 33623008 PMCID: PMC7902664 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections. The effects of climate on vector-borne disease systems are highly context-dependent. Here, the authors incorporate laboratory-measured physiological traits of the mosquito Aedes aegypti into climate-driven mechanistic models to predict number, timing, and duration of outbreaks in Ecuador and Kenya.
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Valencia-Marín BS, Gandica ID, Aguirre-Obando OA. The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:508. [PMID: 33032645 PMCID: PMC7542739 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04354-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2019] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas.
Methods
The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces.
Results
The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time.
Conclusions
The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.
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Lowe R, Lee S, Martins Lana R, Torres Codeço C, Castro MC, Pascual M. Emerging arboviruses in the urbanized Amazon rainforest. BMJ 2020; 371:m4385. [PMID: 33187952 PMCID: PMC7664915 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m4385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rachel Lowe
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sophie Lee
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Raquel Martins Lana
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Marcia C Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Mercedes Pascual
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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de Morais PLL, Castanha PMS, Montarroyos UR. Incidence and spatial distribution of cases of dengue, from 2010 to 2019: an ecological study. SAO PAULO MED J 2020; 138:554-560. [PMID: 33331605 PMCID: PMC9685579 DOI: 10.1590/1516-3180.2020.0111.r1.24092020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is an arbovirus that has caused serious problem in Brazil, putting the public health system under severe stress. Understanding its incidence and spatial distribution is essential for disease control and prevention. OBJECTIVE To perform an analysis on dengue incidence and spatial distribution in a medium-sized, cool-climate and high-altitude city. DESIGN AND SETTING Ecological study carried out in a public institution in the city of Garanhuns, Pernambuco, Brazil. METHODS Secondary data provided by specific agencies in each area were used for spatial analysis and elaboration of kernel maps, incidence calculations, correlations and percentages of dengue occurrence. The Geocentric Reference System for the Americas (Sistema de Referência Geocêntrico para as Américas, SIRGAS), 2000, was the software of choice. RESULTS The incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. Between 2010 and 2019, there were 6,504 cases and the incidence was 474.92. From 2010 to 2014, the incidence was 161.46 for a total of 1,069 cases. The highest incidence occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019: out of a total of 5,435 cases, the incidence was 748.65, representing an increase of 485.97%. Population density and the interaction between two climatic factors, i.e. atypical temperature above 31 °C and relative humidity above 31.4%, contributed to the peak incidence of dengue, although these variables were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION The dengue incidence levels and spatial distribution reflected virus and vector adjustment to the local climate. However, there was no correlation between climatic factors and occurrences of dengue in this city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petrúcio Luiz Lins de Morais
- BSc. Assistant Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Universidade de Pernambuco (UPE), Garanhuns (PE), Brazil.
| | - Priscila Mayrelle Silva Castanha
- MSc, PhD. Research Collaborator, School of Medical Sciences, Institute of Biological Sciences, Universidade de Pernambuco (UPE), Recife (PE), Brazil.
| | - Ulisses Ramos Montarroyos
- BSc. Adjunct Professor, School of Medical Sciences, Institute of Biological Sciences, Universidade de Pernambuco (UPE), Recife (PE), Brazil.
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Kirk D, Luijckx P, Jones N, Krichel L, Pencer C, Molnár P, Krkošek M. Experimental evidence of warming-induced disease emergence and its prediction by a trait-based mechanistic model. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20201526. [PMID: 33049167 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting the effects of seasonality and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious disease remains difficult, in part because of poorly understood connections between warming and the mechanisms driving disease. Trait-based mechanistic models combined with thermal performance curves arising from the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) have been highlighted as a promising approach going forward; however, this framework has not been tested under controlled experimental conditions that isolate the role of gradual temporal warming on disease dynamics and emergence. Here, we provide experimental evidence that a slowly warming host-parasite system can be pushed through a critical transition into an epidemic state. We then show that a trait-based mechanistic model with MTE functional forms can predict the critical temperature for disease emergence, subsequent disease dynamics through time and final infection prevalence in an experimentally warmed system of Daphnia and a microsporidian parasite. Our results serve as a proof of principle that trait-based mechanistic models using MTE subfunctions can predict warming-induced disease emergence in data-rich systems-a critical step towards generalizing the approach to other systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Devin Kirk
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Pepijn Luijckx
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology Department, Trinity College Dublin, University of Dublin, Dublin, Republic of Ireland
| | - Natalie Jones
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Leila Krichel
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Clara Pencer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Péter Molnár
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Laboratory of Quantitative Global Change Ecology, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Canada
| | - Martin Krkošek
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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Moura MCBDM, de Oliveira JV, Pedreira RM, Tavares ADM, de Souza TA, de Lima KC, Barbosa IR. Spatio-temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus oviposition in an urban area of northeastern Brazil. Trop Med Int Health 2020; 25:1510-1521. [PMID: 32959943 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to analyse abundance and spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus oviposition in the city of Natal-RN, 2016 to 2018. METHODS Three hundred and seven oviposition traps were installed covered the whole city and were monitored weekly from January 2016 to December 2018. To verify the abundance of the vector based on its location, the formation of oviposition clusters was studied using the Kernel statistics. Egg Density Index (EDI) and Oviposition Positivity Index (OPI) values were calculated. RESULTS Temperature and humidity presented weak and very weak correlation, respectively, with the oviposition indicators. The median of oviposition positivity index (OPI) was 60.5%, and the egg density index (EDI) was 45.4 eggs/trap. The OPI (71.1%) was higher in the second quarter of the year. The areas with the most persistent oviposition are located in a continuous strip that extends from the extreme of the northern district and extends along the western district of the city. Also noteworthy is the proximity to the strategic points. CONCLUSION The spatio-temporal distribution of oviposition revealed that there is spatial segregation and marked seasonality. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of maintaining surveillance targeting and control strategies focused on these areas, especially during the most important period of the year.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Talita Araujo de Souza
- Postgratuate in Health Sciences, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
| | - Kenio Costa de Lima
- Postgraduate in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
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Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008679. [PMID: 33017443 PMCID: PMC7561266 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2019] [Revised: 10/15/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak, and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer and autumn season transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Late-summer arrivals were more likely to produce large epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 11% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 95 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing large epidemics with a short peak time and vice versa. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, transmission rates, mortality rate, and the mosquito population; the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island.
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Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008640. [PMID: 32986701 PMCID: PMC7544039 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 07/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region. During the recent Zika epidemic in the Americas millions of people were likely infected, but the true size of the epidemic is unknown because of gaps in the surveillance system. The infection attack rate (IAR)—defined as the proportion of the population that was infected over the course of the epidemic—has important implications for the longer-term epidemiology of Zika in the region, such as the timing, location, and likelihood of future outbreaks. To estimate the IAR and the total number of people infected, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries and territories where subnational data were publicly available. Datasets included confirmed and suspected Zika cases in pregnant women and in the total population, Zika-associated Guillan-Barré syndrome cases, and cases of congenital Zika syndrome. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors that leveraged the different case report types to simultaneously estimate national and subnational reporting probabilities, the fraction of symptomatic infections, and subnational IARs. In these 15 countries and territories, estimates of Zika IAR ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador. Totaling these infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories in the region, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas were infected with ZIKV by the end of 2018.
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Bellone R, Failloux AB. The Role of Temperature in Shaping Mosquito-Borne Viruses Transmission. Front Microbiol 2020; 11:584846. [PMID: 33101259 PMCID: PMC7545027 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2020.584846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/07/2020] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases having the greatest impact on human health are typically prevalent in the tropical belt of the world. However, these diseases are conquering temperate regions, raising the question of the role of temperature on their dynamics and expansion. Temperature is one of the most significant abiotic factors affecting, in many ways, insect vectors and the pathogens they transmit. Here, we debate the veracity of this claim by synthesizing current knowledge on the effects of temperature on arboviruses and their vectors, as well as the outcome of their interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel Bellone
- Department of Virology, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Sorbonne Université, Collège Doctoral, Paris, France
| | - Anna-Bella Failloux
- Department of Virology, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
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Sharp TM, Quandelacy TM, Adams LE, Aponte JT, Lozier MJ, Ryff K, Flores M, Rivera A, Santiago GA, Muñoz-Jordán JL, Alvarado LI, Rivera-Amill V, Garcia-Negrón M, Waterman SH, Paz-Bailey G, Johansson MA, Rivera-Garcia B. Epidemiologic and spatiotemporal trends of Zika Virus disease during the 2016 epidemic in Puerto Rico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008532. [PMID: 32956416 PMCID: PMC7529257 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2020] [Revised: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 06/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background After Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, laboratory-based surveillance for arboviral diseases in Puerto Rico was adapted to include ZIKV disease. Methods and findings Suspected cases of arboviral disease reported to Puerto Rico Department of Health were tested for evidence of infection with Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses by RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. To describe spatiotemporal trends among confirmed ZIKV disease cases, we analyzed the relationship between municipality-level socio-demographic, climatic, and spatial factors, and both time to detection of the first ZIKV disease case and the midpoint of the outbreak. During November 2015–December 2016, a total of 71,618 suspected arboviral disease cases were reported, of which 39,717 (55.5%; 1.1 cases per 100 residents) tested positive for ZIKV infection. The epidemic peaked in August 2016, when 71.5% of arboviral disease cases reported weekly tested positive for ZIKV infection. Incidence of ZIKV disease was highest among 20–29-year-olds (1.6 cases per 100 residents), and most (62.3%) cases were female. The most frequently reported symptoms were rash (83.0%), headache (64.6%), and myalgia (63.3%). Few patients were hospitalized (1.2%), and 13 (<0.1%) died. Early detection of ZIKV disease cases was associated with increased population size (log hazard ratio [HR]: -0.22 [95% confidence interval -0.29, -0.14]), eastern longitude (log HR: -1.04 [-1.17, -0.91]), and proximity to a city (spline estimated degrees of freedom [edf] = 2.0). Earlier midpoints of the outbreak were associated with northern latitude (log HR: -0.30 [-0.32, -0.29]), eastern longitude (spline edf = 6.5), and higher mean monthly temperature (log HR: -0.04 [-0.05, -0.03]). Higher incidence of ZIKV disease was associated with lower mean precipitation, but not socioeconomic factors. Conclusions During the ZIKV epidemic in Puerto Rico, 1% of residents were reported to public health authorities and had laboratory evidence of ZIKV disease. Transmission was first detected in urban areas of eastern Puerto Rico, where transmission also peaked earlier. These trends suggest that ZIKV was first introduced to Puerto Rico in the east before disseminating throughout the island. During epidemics of Zika virus disease in the Americas in 2015 and 2016, assessment of transmission dynamics was limited by inconsistent laboratory testing of patients with suspected Zika virus disease. This limitation was further complicated by co-circulation of dengue and chikungunya viruses, which cause illnesses clinically similar to Zika virus disease. In Puerto Rico, all reported suspect cases of arboviral disease were tested for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus infection throughout the epidemic, which allowed for fine-scale analysis of epidemiologic and spatiotemporal trends. In total, 39,717 cases of Zika virus disease were detected, or roughly 1% of all residents of Puerto Rico. Young adults and females were most affected. Disease was mostly mild, as only 1% of cases were hospitalized. Thirteen patients with Zika virus disease died, most of whom had Guillain-Barré syndrome or severe underlying illnesses. Early detection of Zika virus disease cases was associated with more populated areas of eastern Puerto Rico, where early detection of peak case numbers also occurred, particularly in warmer areas. These trends suggest that, in contrast to prior epidemics of dengue and chikungunya that started in the San Juan metropolitan region, the Zika virus epidemic appears to have begun in eastern Puerto Rico.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler M. Sharp
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- US Public Health Service, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Talia M. Quandelacy
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Laura E. Adams
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- US Public Health Service, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jomil Torres Aponte
- Office of Epidemiology, Puerto Rico Department of Health, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Matthew J. Lozier
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- US Public Health Service, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Kyle Ryff
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Mitchelle Flores
- Biological and Chemical Emergencies Laboratory, Puerto Rico Department of Health, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Aidsa Rivera
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Gilberto A. Santiago
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | | | | | | | | | - Stephen H. Waterman
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- US Public Health Service, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Gabriela Paz-Bailey
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Michael A. Johansson
- Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Brenda Rivera-Garcia
- Biological and Chemical Emergencies Laboratory, Puerto Rico Department of Health, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, Rohr J, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife 2020; 9:e58511. [PMID: 32930091 PMCID: PMC7492091 DOI: 10.7554/elife.58511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta S Shocket
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | | | - Mailo G Numazu
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
| | - Hani Slamani
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jeremy M Cohen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of WisconsinMadisonUnited States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jason Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre DameSouth BendUnited States
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
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Effect of altitude on wing metric variation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in a region of the Colombian Central Andes. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0228975. [PMID: 32817690 PMCID: PMC7440630 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/02/2020] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
In mosquitoes of medical importance, wing shape and size can vary with altitude, an aspect that can influence dispersion and, consequently, their vector capacity. Using geometric morphometry analysis, Aedes aegypti wing size and shape variation of males and females was studied in four altitudes in the second-smallest department in Colombia: 1,200 m (Tebaida), 1,400 m (Armenia), 1,500 m (Calarcá), and 1,700 m (Filandia). Wing shape in males (P < 0.001) and females (P < 0.001) was significantly different through the altitudinal gradient; in turn, wing size in males followed the altitudinal gradient males (R2 = 0.04946, P = 0.0002), females (R2 = 0.0011, P = 0.46). Wing allometry for males (P < 0.001) and females (P < 0.001) was significant. Likewise, the shape and size of the wings of males (P < 0.001) and females (P < 0.001) had significant fluctuating asymmetry. It is concluded that, in a small scale with an altitudinal variation of 500 meters, it is detected that the size and shape of the wings varied in A. aegypti, main vector the agents that cause dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The fluctuating asymmetry is present in the individuals studied and could be associated with environmental effects caused by vector control campaigns present in some sampling locations.
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