Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden

Spatial and temporal analysis on the impact of ultra-low volume indoor insecticide spraying on Aedes aegypti household density

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is the primary mosquito vector for several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, which cause frequent outbreaks of human disease in tropical and subtropical regions. Control of these outbreaks relies on vector control, commonly in the form of insecticide sprays that target adult female mosquitoes. However, the spatial coverage and frequency of sprays needed to optimize effectiveness are unclear. In this study, we characterize the effect of ultra-low-volume (ULV) indoor spraying of pyrethroid insecticides on Ae. aegypti abundance within households. We also evaluate the effects of spray events during recent time periods or in neighboring households. Improved understanding of the duration and distance of the impact of a spray intervention on Ae. aegypti populations can inform vector control interventions, in addition to modeling efforts that contrast vector control strategies.

METHODS

This project analyzes data from two large-scale experiments that involved six cycles of indoor pyrethroid spray applications in 2 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We developed spatial multi-level models to disentangle the reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance that resulted from (i) recent ULV treatment within households and (ii) ULV treatment of adjacent or nearby households. We compared fits of models across a range of candidate weighting schemes for the spray effect, based on different temporal and spatial decay functions to understand lagged ULV effects.

RESULTS

Our results suggested that the reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly due to spray events occurring within the same household, with no additional effect of sprays that occurred in neighboring households. Effectiveness of a spray intervention should be measured based on time since the most recent spray event, as we found no cumulative effect of sequential sprays. Based on our model, we estimated the spray effect is reduced by 50% approximately 28 days after the spray event.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly determined by the number of days since the last spray intervention in that same household, highlighting the importance of spray coverage in high-risk areas with a spray frequency determined by local viral transmission dynamics.

Agent-based modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and inform control efforts. The urgent demand for insight at the outset of the pandemic meant early models were typically either simple or repurposed from existing research agendas. Our group predominantly uses agent-based models (ABMs) to study fine-scale intervention scenarios. These high-resolution models are large, complex, require extensive empirical data, and are often more detailed than strictly necessary for answering qualitative questions like "Should we lockdown?" During the early stages of an extraordinary infectious disease crisis, particularly before clear empirical evidence is available, simpler models are more appropriate. As more detailed empirical evidence becomes available, however, and policy decisions become more nuanced and complex, fine-scale approaches like ours become more useful. In this manuscript, we discuss how our group navigated this transition as we modeled the pandemic. The role of modelers often included nearly real-time analysis, and the massive undertaking of adapting our tools quickly. We were often playing catch up with a firehose of evidence, while simultaneously struggling to do both academic research and real-time decision support, under conditions conducive to neither. By reflecting on our experiences of responding to the pandemic and what we learned from these challenges, we can better prepare for future demands.

Behavioral responses and life history traits of Taiwanese and Indonesian populations of Aedes aegypti surviving deltamethrin-clothianidin treatment

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) capitalizes on the natural behavior of mosquitoes because Aedes aegypti commonly seeks indoor resting sites after a blood meal. This behavior allows mosquitoes to be exposed to insecticide-treated surfaces and subsequently killed. Combinations of deltamethrin and clothianidin with different modes of action have shown promise in IRS, effectively targeting both susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant malaria vectors. However, the effects of this approach on Aedes mosquitoes remain unclear. The present study tested the effects of deltamethrin-clothianidin mixture treatment on behavioral responses and life history traits of Taiwanese and Indonesian populations of Ae. aegypti.

METHODS

We adopted an excito-repellent approach to explore the behavioral responses of pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti populations from Indonesia and Taiwan to a deltamethrin-clothianidin mixture used in contact irritancy and non-contact repellency treatments. We further evaluated the life history traits of surviving mosquitoes (i.e., delayed mortality after 7-day post-treatment, longevity, fecundity, and egg hatching) and investigated the potential transgenerational hormetic effects of insecticide exposure (i.e., development rate and survival of immatures and adult mosquitos).

RESULTS

All tested field populations of Ae. aegypti displayed strong contact irritancy responses; the percentage of escape upon insecticide exposure ranged from 38.8% to 84.7%. However, repellent effects were limited, with the escape percentage ranging from 4.3% to 48.9%. We did not observe immediate knockdown or mortality after 24 h, and less than 15% of the mosquitoes exhibited delayed mortality after a 7-day exposure period. However, the carryover effects of insecticide exposure on the survival of immature mosquitoes resulted in approximately 25% higher immature mortality than that in the control. By contrast, we further documented stimulated survivor reproduction and accelerated transgenerational immature development resulting from the sublethal effects of the insecticide mixture. In particular, the number of eggs laid by treated (both treatments) female mosquitoes increased by at least 60% compared with that of eggs laid by control female mosquitoes.

CONCLUSIONS

IRS with deltamethrin-clothianidin effectively deters Aedes mosquitoes from entering residential areas and thereby reduces mosquito bites. However, the application rate (deltamethrin: 25 mg/m2; clothianidin: 200 mg/m2) may be insufficient to effectively kill Aedes mosquitoes. Insecticide response appears to vary across mosquito species; their behavioral and physiological responses to sublethal doses have crucial implications for mosquito control programs.

Targeted indoor residual insecticide applications shift Aedes aegypti age structure and arbovirus transmission potential

While residual insecticide applications have the potential to decrease pathogen transmission by reducing the density of vectors and shifting the age structure of the adult mosquito population towards younger stages of development, this double entomological impact has not been documented for Aedes aegypti. Aedes collected from households enrolled in a cluster-randomized trial evaluating the epidemiological impact of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) in Merida, Mexico, were dissected and their age structure characterized by the Polovodova combined with Christopher's ovariole growth methods. In total, 813 females were dissected to characterize age structure at 1, 3, 6, and 9 months post-TIRS. Significant differences in the proportion of nulliparous Ae. aegypti females between the treatment groups was found at one-month post-TIRS (control: 35% vs. intervention: 59%), three months (20% vs. 49%) but not at six or nine months post-TIRS. TIRS significantly shiftted Ae. aegypti age structure towards younger stages and led to a non-linear reduction in survivorship compared to the control arm. Reduced survivorship also reduced the number of arbovirus transmitting females (those who survived the extrinsic incubation period). Our findings provide strong evidence of the full entomological impact of TIRS, with important implications for quantifying the epidemiological impact of vector control methods.

Mapping Aedes aegypti indoor resting behavior reveals a preference vulnerable to householder-led vector control

Many mosquito vectors rest inside human habitations, a behavioral trait that is exploited for vector control by indoor residual spraying (IRS) of interior walls with insecticide. Although IRS and its refined version targeted IRS are very effective against Aedes aegypti, they are expensive and logistically challenging to deliver in densely populated urban areas where outbreaks of dengue and other arboviruses are the greatest challenge. In experiments in Recife, Brazil, we set out to quantify the indoor resting behavior of Ae. aegypti at a level beyond that previously reported. We found that significantly more Ae. aegypti males, unfed and fed females visited the base of walls (height 0-20 cm, corresponding to 12.3% of the total wall surface) more frequently than upper wall areas, with the difference more pronounced at higher temperatures. When the lowest 20 cm of the walls was treated with an appropriate insecticide and colored black, we recorded up to 85% cumulative mortality after 24-h exposure in the experimental room. The findings are significant because feasibly, householders could treat this small and accessible target zone manually, without the need for visits by costly IRS teams or equipment, reducing insecticide use and enabling communities to actively protect their own indoor environment.

A machine learning model to assess potential misdiagnosed dengue hospitalization

Dengue, like other arboviruses with broad clinical spectra, can easily be misdiagnosed as other infectious diseases due to the overlap of signs and symptoms. During large outbreaks, severe dengue cases have the potential to overwhelm the health care system and understanding the burden of dengue hospitalizations is therefore important to better allocate medical care and public health resources. A machine learning model that used data from the Brazilian public healthcare system database and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) was developed to estimate potential misdiagnosed dengue hospitalizations in Brazil. The data was modeled into a hospitalization level linked dataset. Then, Random Forest, Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms were assessed. The algorithms were trained by dividing the dataset in training/test set and performing a cross validation to select the best hyperparameters in each algorithm tested. The evaluation was done based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, sensitivity, and specificity. The best model developed was Random Forest with an accuracy of 85% on the final reviewed test. This model shows that 3.4% (13,608) of all hospitalizations in the public healthcare system from 2014 to 2020 could have been dengue misdiagnosed as other diseases. The model was helpful in finding potentially misdiagnosed dengue and might be a useful tool to help public health decision makers in planning resource allocation.

Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated.

Linking mathematical models and trap data to infer the proliferation, abundance, and control of Aedes aegypti

Aedes aegypti is one of the most dominant mosquito species in the urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida, and is responsible for the local arbovirus transmissions. Since August 2016, mosquito traps have been placed throughout the county to improve surveillance and guide mosquito control and arbovirus outbreak response. In this paper, we develop a deterministic mosquito population model, estimate model parameters by using local entomological and temperature data, and use the model to calibrate the mosquito trap data from 2017 to 2019. We further use the model to compare the Ae. aegypti population and evaluate the impact of rainfall intensity in different urban built environments. Our results show that rainfall affects the breeding sites and the abundance of Ae. aegypti more significantly in tourist areas than in residential places. In addition, we apply the model to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of vector control strategies in Miami-Dade County.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases and Their Control Strategies: An Overview Focused on Green Synthesized Plant-Based Metallic Nanoparticles

Mosquitoes act as vectors of pathogens that cause most life-threatening diseases, such as malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, Yellow fever, Zika, West Nile, Lymphatic filariasis, etc. To reduce the transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases in humans, several chemical, biological, mechanical, and pharmaceutical methods of control are used. However, these different strategies are facing important and timely challenges that include the rapid spread of highly invasive mosquitoes worldwide, the development of resistance in several mosquito species, and the recent outbreaks of novel arthropod-borne viruses (e.g., Dengue, Rift Valley fever, tick-borne encephalitis, West Nile, yellow fever, etc.). Therefore, the development of novel and effective methods of control is urgently needed to manage mosquito vectors. Adapting the principles of nanobiotechnology to mosquito vector control is one of the current approaches. As a single-step, eco-friendly, and biodegradable method that does not require the use of toxic chemicals, the green synthesis of nanoparticles using active toxic agents from plant extracts available since ancient times exhibits antagonistic responses and broad-spectrum target-specific activities against different species of vector mosquitoes. In this article, the current state of knowledge on the different mosquito control strategies in general, and on repellent and mosquitocidal plant-mediated synthesis of nanoparticles in particular, has been reviewed. By doing so, this review may open new doors for research on mosquito-borne diseases.

Residual efficacy of the neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin against pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti

BACKGROUND

Here we report the residual efficacy of the neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin against pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti. We first conducted a range-finding evaluation of clothianidin on three different substrates (wall, wood, cloth) using three doses (100, 300 and 600 mg a.i. m-2 ) and conducting World Health Organization (WHO) cone bioassays to assess acute (24 h) and delayed (up to 7 days) mortality. In experimental houses located in Merida (Mexico) and using free-flying pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti females, we quantified the acute and delayed mortality after a 24-h exposure to the targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) of two clothianidin doses (100 and 300 mg a.i. m-2 ).

RESULTS

Range-finding studies with WHO cones showed low (<50%) acute mortality for all surfaces, doses and times post spraying. Delayed mortality was higher, with average values above or close to the 60% mark (and 95% confidence interval estimates crossing 80% for the 600 mg a.i. m-2 dose). In experimental houses, a similar low acute mortality was quantified (range of mortality across 12 months was 2-44% for 100 mg a.i. m-2 and 8-61% for 300 mg a.i/m2 ). However, delayed mortality showed a strong effect of clothianidin on free-flying Ae. aegypti, with values above 80% up to 7 months post-TIRS.

CONCLUSION

Novel residual insecticide molecules have a promising outlook for Ae. aegypti control and can contribute to the expansion and adoption of TIRS in urban areas. clothianidin can contribute to the control of resistant Ae. aegypti and provide residual control for up to 7 months after application. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Preventive residual insecticide applications successfully controlled Aedes aegypti in Yucatan, Mexico

Insecticide-based approaches remain a key pillar for Aedes-borne virus (ABV, dengue, chikungunya, Zika) control, yet they are challenged by the limited effect of traditional outdoor insecticide campaigns responding to reported arboviral cases and by the emergence of insecticide resistance in mosquitoes. A three-arm Phase II unblinded entomological cluster randomized trial was conducted in Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico, to quantify the entomological impact of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS, application of residual insecticides in Ae. aegypti indoor resting sites) applied preventively 2 months before the beginning of the arbovirus transmission season. Trial arms involved the use of two insecticides with unrelated modes of action (Actellic 300CS, pirimiphos-methyl, and SumiShield 50WG, clothianidin) and a control arm where TIRS was not applied. Entomological impact was quantified by Prokopack adult collections performed indoors during 10 min per house. Regardless of the insecticide, conducting a preventive TIRS application led to significant reductions in indoor Ae. aegypti densities, which were maintained at the same levels as in the low arbovirus transmission period (Actellic 300CS reduced Ae. aegypti density up to 8 months, whereas SumiShield 50WG up to 6 months). The proportional reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance in treatment houses compared to control houses was 50-70% for Actellic 300CS and 43-63% for SumiShield 50WG. Total operational costs including insecticide ranged from US$4.2 to US$10.5 per house, depending on the insecticide cost. Conducting preventive residual insecticide applications can maintain Ae. aegypti densities at low levels year-round with important implications for preventing ABVs in the Americas and beyond.

Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study

As the most widespread viral infection transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, dengue has been estimated to cause 51 million febrile disease cases globally each year. Although sustained vector control remains key to reducing the burden of dengue, current understanding of the key factors that explain the observed variation in the short- and long-term vector control effectiveness across different transmission settings remains limited. We used a detailed individual-based model to simulate dengue transmission with and without sustained vector control over a 30-year time frame, under different transmission scenarios. Vector control effectiveness was derived for different time windows within the 30-year intervention period. We then used the extreme gradient boosting algorithm to predict the effectiveness of vector control given the simulation parameters, and the resulting machine learning model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations. According to our simulation outputs, dengue transmission would be nearly eliminated during the early stage of sustained and intensive vector control, but over time incidence would gradually bounce back to the pre-intervention level unless the intervention is implemented at a very high level of intensity. The time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control, but also by the pre-intervention transmission intensity and the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Moreover, the impact of many transmission model parameters on the intervention effectiveness is shown to be modified by the intensity of vector control, as well as to vary over time. Our study has identified some of the critical drivers for the difference in the time-varying effectiveness of sustained vector control across different dengue endemic settings, and the insights obtained will be useful to inform future model-based studies that seek to predict the impact of dengue vector control in their local contexts.

Sustained vector control remains key to reducing the global burden of dengue. However, current understanding of the main drivers for the differences in the time-varying epidemiological impact of dengue vector control across different transmission settings remains limited. We developed an agent-based model and showed that in the absence of a highly effective intervention technology that is able to eliminate dengue transmission even in an entirely susceptible population, a fixed level of reduction in the Aedes abundance would only cause temporary reduction in dengue incidence. Furthermore, the time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control and the pre-intervention transmission intensity, but also by the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Besides, the intensity of vector control interacts with the other two factors mentioned earlier, and the interaction magnitude also changes over time. These insights will be useful to inform future modelling studies that seek to predict the impact of Aedes control on dengue transmission in their local contexts, and have important implications for the design of intervention strategies to achieve sustained reduction in the global burden of dengue.

Effects of piperonyl butoxide synergism and cuticular thickening on the contact irritancy response of field Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to deltamethrin

BACKGROUND

Exploiting indoor-resting mosquitoes' innate behavioral responses to commonly used insecticide is crucial in vector control programs. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) treated with pyrethroids have become widely used for controlling dengue fever vectors. The present study tested the effects of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergism and cuticular thickening on the contact irritancy response of field A. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to deltamethrin in Taiwan and Thailand.

RESULTS

The escape response of field mosquitoes treated with PBO was significantly elicited, with an escape percentage increase between 2- and 10-fold. In addition, the escape time was significantly lower in PBO-pretreated mosquitoes compared with field mosquitoes treated with deltamethrin alone. PBO-pretreated mosquitoes from seven out of 11 field strains exhibited a knockdown percentage of 11.23-54.91%, significantly higher than that of mosquitoes in corresponding strains treated with deltamethrin only. The Annan, Zhongxi, Sanmin, and North strains exhibited weak knockdown responses (≤3.75%). The mortality of PBO-pretreated field mosquitoes increased 2- to 75-fold compared with those treated with deltamethrin alone (mortality: 0-6.70%). Furthermore, the effect of cuticular thickness on the escape response of field mosquitoes was significant, that is, the escape response marginally increased inversely to cuticular thickness. By contrast, cuticular thickness was not significantly associated with knockdown or mortality percentage.

CONCLUSION

Irritant behavior in mosquitoes was significantly elicited by PBO synergism. PBO incorporating deltamethrin IRS or LLINs may be effective for controlling dengue fever vectors. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Geographic Partitioning of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk in Florida

Dengue viruses (DENVs) cause the greatest public health burden globally among the arthropod-borne viruses. DENV transmission risk has also expanded from tropical to subtropical regions due to the increasing range of its principal mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Focal outbreaks of dengue fever (dengue) in the state of Florida (FL) in the USA have increased since 2009. However, little is known about the competence of Ae. aegypti populations across different regions of FL to transmit DENVs. To understand the effects of DENV genotype and serotype variations on vector susceptibility and transmission potential in FL, we orally infected a colony of Ae. aegypti (Orlando/ORL) with low passage or laboratory DENV-1 through -4. Low passage DENVs were more infectious to and had higher transmission potential by ORL mosquitoes. We used these same DENVs to examine natural Ae. aegypti populations to determine whether spatial distributions correlated with differential vector competence. Vector competence across all DENV serotypes was greater for mosquitoes from areas with the highest dengue incidence in south FL compared to north FL. Vector competence for low passage DENVs was significantly higher, revealing that transmission risk is influenced by virus/vector combinations. These data support a targeted mosquito-plus-pathogen screening approach to more accurately estimate DENV transmission risk.

Efficacy of targeted indoor residual spraying with the pyrrole insecticide chlorfenapyr against pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti

Background

There is an increased need to mitigate the emergence of insecticide resistance and incorporate new formulations and modes of application to control the urban vector Aedes aegypti. Most research and development of insecticide formulations for the control of Ae. aegypti has focused on their peridomestic use as truck-mounted ULV-sprays or thermal fogs despite the widespread knowledge that most resting Ae. aegypti are found indoors. A recent modification of indoor residual spraying (IRS), termed targeted IRS (TIRS) works by restricting applications to 1.5 m down to the floor and on key Ae. aegypti resting sites (under furniture). TIRS also opens the possibility of evaluating novel residual insecticide formulations currently being developed for malaria IRS.

Methods

We evaluated the residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr, formulated as Sylando 240SC, for 12 months on free-flying field-derived pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti using a novel experimental house design in Merida, Mexico. On a monthly basis, 600 female Ae. aegypti were released into the houses and left indoors with access to sugar solution for 24 hours. After the exposure period, dead and alive mosquitoes were counted in houses treated with chlorfenapyr as well as untreated control houses to calculate 24-h mortality. An evaluation for these exposed cohorts of surviving mosquitoes was extended up to seven days under laboratory conditions to quantify “delayed mortality”.

Results

Mean acute (24-h) mortality of pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti ranged 80–97% over 5 months, dropping below 30% after 7 months post-TIRS. If delayed mortality was considered (quantifying mosquito mortality up to 7 days after exposure), residual efficacy was above 90% for up to 7 months post-TIRS application. Generalized Additive Mixed Models quantified a residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr of 225 days (ca. 7.5 months).

Conclusions

Chlorfenapyr represents a new option for TIRS control of Ae. aegypti in urban areas, providing a highly-effective time of protection against indoor Ae. aegypti females of up to 7 months.

Vector control (VC) for managing Aedes aegypti and reducing transmission of Aedes-borne diseases is largely focused on peridomestic insecticide applications. However, the indoor resting behavior of Ae. aegypti and the acceleration of insecticide resistance owed to reduced modes of action have diminished the effectiveness of many VC tools. A targeted Indoor residual spraying (TIRS) modality in experimental housing units was employed to investigate the potential of chlorfenapyr, a pyrrole-class insecticide with known effectiveness to resistant mosquito species. This was the first investigation for chlorfenapyr use against locally resistant Ae. aegypti (Merida, Mexico) with this approach. Two treatment arms were investigated in the present study: TIRS and a control house where only water was sprayed. A comparison of entomological efficacy for TIRS applied to interior perimeter walls below 1.5 m with chlorfenapyr (formulated as Sylando 240SC) at 250 mg/m² over 12 months was assessed. TIRS chlorfenapyr treatments were highly efficacious and led to acute mortalities (after 24 exposure) above 80% up to 5 months; delayed mortalities (to Ae. aegypti) were monitored over seven days post exposures vs untreated controls. When delayed mortality was considered, residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr extended to 7 months. These data provide evidence that TIRS chlorfenapyr is an effective Aedes management tool that surpassed efficacy profiles for other TIRS insecticides that have been previously reported with this method. Further, Chlorfenapyr emerges as a novel addition to Ae. aegypti VC, and future studies should focus on its effectiveness and residual power as part of Phase II-III TIRS trials.

Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years.

METHODS

Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.

Prevalence of arbovirus antibodies in young healthy adult population in Brazil

Background

The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are a cause for worldwide concern. The introduction of Zika and Chikungunya diseases in the Americas has exposed unforeseen medical and logistical challenges for public health systems. Moreover, the lack of preventive measures and vaccination against known and emerging mosquito-transmitted pathogens, and the occurrence of unanticipated clinical complications, has had an enormous social and economic impact on the affected populations. In this study, we aimed to measure the seroprevalence of endemic and emerging viral pathogens in military personnel stationed in Manaus, Amazonas state.

Methods

We measured the seropositivity of antibodies against 19 endemic and emerging viruses in a healthy military personnel group using a hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA).

Results

Overall, DENV positivity was 60.4%, and 30.9% of the individuals reacted against ZIKV. Also, 46.6%, 54.7%, 51.3% and 48.7% individuals reacted against West Nile virus (WNV), Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), Ilheus virus (ILHV) and Rocio virus (ROCV), respectively. Individuals with high DENV HIA titer reacted more frequently with ZIKV or WNV compared to those with low HIA titers. Observed cross-reactivity between Flaviviruses varied depending on the virus serogroup. Additionally, 0.6% and 0.3% individuals were seropositive for Oropouche virus (OROV) and Catu virus (CATUV) from the family Peribunyaviridae, respectively. All samples were negative for Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV), Western Equine Encephalomyelitis virus (WEEV), Mayaro virus (MAYV), Mucambo virus (MUCV) and CHIKV from the family Togaviridae.

Conclusions

A high proportion of individuals in our high-risk population (~ 60%) lacked antibodies against major endemic and emerging viruses, which makes them susceptible for further infections. Military personnel serving in the Amazon region could serve as sentinels to strengthen global infectious disease surveillance, particularly in remote areas.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04901-4.

Identifying urban hotspots of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission in Mexico to support risk stratification efforts: a spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Effective Aedes aegypti control is limited, in part, by the difficulty in achieving sufficient intervention coverage. To maximise the effect of vector control, areas with persistently high numbers of Aedes-borne disease cases could be identified and prioritised for preventive interventions. We aimed to identify persistent Aedes-borne disease hotspots in cities across southern Mexico.

METHODS

In this spatial analysis, geocoded cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika from nine endemic Mexican cities were aggregated at the census-tract level. We included cities that were located in southern Mexico (the arbovirus endemic region of Mexico), with a high burden of dengue cases (ie, more than 5000 cases reported during a 10-year period), and listed as high priority for the Mexican dengue control and prevention programme. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) statistic was applied to yearly slices of the dataset to identify spatial hotspots of each disease in each city. We used Kendall's W coefficient to quantify the agreement in the distribution of each virus.

FINDINGS

128 507 dengue, 4752 chikungunya and 25 755 Zika clinical cases were reported between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016. All cities showed evidence of transmission heterogeneity, with a mean of 17·6% (SD 4·7) of their total area identified as persistent disease hotspots. Hotspots accounted for 25·6% (SD 9·7; range 12·8-43·0) of the population and 32·1% (10·5; 19·6-50·5) of all Aedes-borne disease cases reported. We found an overlap between hotspots of 61·7% for dengue and Zika and 53·3% for dengue and chikungunya. Dengue hotspots in 2008-16 were significantly associated with dengue hotspots detected during 2017-20 in five of the nine cities. Heads of vector control confirmed hotspot areas as problem zones for arbovirus transmission.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides evidence of the overlap of Aedes-borne diseases within geographical hotspots and a methodological framework for the stratification of arbovirus transmission risk within urban areas, which can guide the implementation of surveillance and vector control.

FUNDING

USAID, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, Fondo Mixto CONACyT (Mexico)-Gobierno del Estado de Yucatan, and the US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

Background

With the challenges that dengue fever (DF) presents to healthcare systems and societies, public health officials must determine where best to allocate scarce resources and restricted budgets. Constrained optimization (CO) helps to address some of the acknowledged limitations of conventional health economic analyses and has typically been used to identify the optimal allocation of resources across interventions subject to a variety of constraints.

Methods

A dynamic transmission model was developed to predict the number of dengue cases in Thailand at steady state. A CO was then applied to identify the optimal combination of interventions (release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and paediatric vaccination) within the constraints of a fixed budget, set no higher than cost estimates of the current vector control programme, to minimize the number of dengue cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Epidemiological, cost, and effectiveness data were informed by national data and the research literature. The time horizon was 10 years. Scenario analyses examined different disease management and intervention costs, budget constraints, vaccine efficacy, and optimization time horizon.

Results

Under base-case budget constraints, the optimal coverage of the two interventions to minimize dengue incidence was predicted to be nearly equal (Wolbachia 50%; paediatric vaccination 49%) with corresponding coverages under lower bound (Wolbachia 54%; paediatric vaccination 10%) and upper bound (Wolbachia 67%; paediatric vaccination 100%) budget ceilings. Scenario analyses indicated that the most impactful situations related to the costs of Wolbachia and paediatric vaccination with decreases/ increases in costs of interventions demonstrating a direct correlation with coverage (increases/ decreases) of the respective control strategies under examination.

Conclusions

Determining the best investment strategy for dengue control requires the identification of the optimal mix of interventions to implement in order to maximize public health outcomes, often under fixed budget constraints. A CO model was developed with the objective of minimizing dengue cases (and DALYs lost) over a 10-year time horizon, within the constraints of the estimated budgets for vector control in the absence of vaccination and Wolbachia. The model provides a tool for developing estimates of optimal coverage of combined dengue control strategies that minimize dengue burden at the lowest budget.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10747-3.

The entomological impact of passive metofluthrin emanators against indoor Aedes aegypti: A randomized field trial

Background

In the absence of vaccines or drugs, insecticides are the mainstay of Aedes-borne disease control. Their utility is challenged by the slow deployment of resources, poor community compliance and inadequate household coverage. Novel application methods are required.

Methodology and principal findings

A 10% w/w metofluthrin “emanator” that passively disseminates insecticide from an impregnated net was evaluated in a randomized trial of 200 houses in Mexico. The devices were introduced at a rate of 1 per room and replaced at 3-week intervals. During each of 7 consecutive deployment cycles, indoor resting mosquitoes were sampled using aspirator collections. Assessments of mosquito landing behaviours were made in a subset of houses. Pre-treatment, there were no differences in Aedes aegypti indices between houses recruited to the control and treatment arms. Immediately after metofluthrin deployment, the entomological indices between the trial arms diverged. Averaged across the trial, there were significant reductions in Abundance Rate Ratios for total Ae. aegypti, female abundance and females that contained blood meals (2.5, 2.4 and 2.3-times fewer mosquitoes respectively; P<0.001). Average efficacy was 60.2% for total adults, 58.3% for females, and 57.2% for blood-fed females. The emanators also reduced mosquito landings by 90% from 12.5 to 1.2 per 10-minute sampling period (P<0.05). Homozygous forms of the pyrethroid resistant kdr alleles V410L, V1016L and F1534C were common in the target mosquito population; found in 39%, 24% and 95% of mosquitoes collected during the trial.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impact of any volatile pyrethroid on urban Ae. aegypti. It demonstrates that volatile pyrethroids can have a sustained impact on Ae. aegypti population densities and human-vector contact indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistant alleles in the target population. Formulations like these may have considerable utility for public health vector control responses.

Insecticidal control tools are heavily relied on for the control of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, but the logistics associated with conventional insecticide use (e.g. space sprays and residual formulations) are challenging. Considerable time and resources are required to treat household interiors; an impediment exacerbated by the difficulty in gaining entrance to households, and sometimes by limited compliance in the community. Another constraint to effective insecticide use is that many mosquito populations are resistant to the chemicals used. Volatile pyrethroids, exhibiting both lethal and behavioural effects on mosquitoes are available in formulations that release insecticides passively to the air, at room temperature. These may be suitable for deployment in houses with the aim of creating “bite-free” spaces. By removing the need for conventional application methods, these devices might be rapidly deployed with minimum disruption to households. This is the first large-scale, randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impacts of volatile pyrethroids in an urban environment. Using metofluthrin as an example, we confirm that some formulations have a significant impact on Aedes aegypti densities and landing behaviour indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistance alleles associated with conventional insecticide resistance.

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

Human mobility patterns can play an integral role in vector-borne disease dynamics by characterizing an individual’s potential contacts with disease-transmitting vectors. Dengue virus is transmitted by a sedentary vector, but human mobility allows individuals to have contact with mosquitoes at their home and other houses they frequent (their activity space). When accounting for the decreased mobility of symptomatic dengue cases in an agent-based simulation model, however, we found a severely diminished role of the activity space in onward transmission. Those who received the majority of their mosquito contacts outside their home experienced decreases in expected bites and onward transmission when mobility changes were accounted for. Onward transmission was driven by a synergistic relationship between the number of mosquitoes in an individual’s home and their biting suitability, where even those with the highest biting suitability would have limited contribution to transmission given a low number of household mosquitoes. Reactive vector control, which often targets symptomatic cases, could be effective for slowing onward transmission from these cases, but will fail to control virus transmission due to the disproportionate contribution of asymptomatic infections.

COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.

Evaluating Over-the-Counter Household Insecticide Aerosols for Rapid Vector Control of Pyrethroid-Resistant Aedes aegypti

Vector control methods that mobilize and impact rapidly during dengue, Zika, and chikungunya outbreaks are urgently needed in urban contexts. We investigated whether one person using a handheld aerosolized insecticide could achieve efficacy levels comparable to targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS), using pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti in a semi-field setting with experimental houses in Mexico. The insecticide product (H24, a carbamate and pyrethroid mixture), available over-the-counter locally, was sprayed only on known Ae. aegypti-resting surfaces, for example, walls less than 1.5 m and dark hidden areas. In six identical houses with paired bedrooms, one bedroom was treated, and the other remained an untreated control. Each week for 8 weeks, 100 female pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti were released in each bedroom and followed up daily. Mortality rates in treated bedrooms exceeded 90% for at least 2 weeks, and more than 80% (89.2; 95% CI: 79.98-98.35) for 3 weeks or more. Mortality rates in control houses were zero. Results demonstrate that the immediate impact of TIRS can be delivered by one person using existing products, at an estimated cost for the average household in Mexico of under US$3 per month. Triggered by early outbreak signs, dissemination via community hubs and mass/social media of instructions to treat the home immediately, with monthly re-treatment thereafter, provides a simple means to engage and empower householders. Compatible with integrated vector management strategies, it enables self-protection even if existing agencies falter, a situation exemplified by the potential impact on vector control of the restrictions imposed during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling

Our ability to effectively prevent the transmission of the dengue virus through targeted control of its vector, Aedes aegypti, depends critically on our understanding of the link between mosquito abundance and human disease risk. Mosquito and clinical surveillance data are widely collected, but linking them requires a modeling framework that accounts for the complex non-linear mechanisms involved in transmission. Most critical are the bottleneck in transmission imposed by mosquito lifespan relative to the virus' extrinsic incubation period, and the dynamics of human immunity. We developed a differential equation model of dengue transmission and embedded it in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to estimate latent time series of mosquito demographic rates from mosquito trap counts and dengue case reports from the city of Vitória, Brazil. We used the fitted model to explore how the timing of a pulse of adult mosquito control influences its effect on the human disease burden in the following year. We found that control was generally more effective when implemented in periods of relatively low mosquito mortality (when mosquito abundance was also generally low). In particular, control implemented in early September (week 34 of the year) produced the largest reduction in predicted human case reports over the following year. This highlights the potential long-term utility of broad, off-peak-season mosquito control in addition to existing, locally targeted within-season efforts. Further, uncertainty in the effectiveness of control interventions was driven largely by posterior variation in the average mosquito mortality rate (closely tied to total mosquito abundance) with lower mosquito mortality generating systems more vulnerable to control. Broadly, these correlations suggest that mosquito control is most effective in situations in which transmission is already limited by mosquito abundance.

The economic impact and cost-effectiveness of combined vector-control and dengue vaccination strategies in Thailand: results from a dynamic transmission model

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in tropical/subtropical regions. Prior economic analyses have predominantly evaluated either vaccination or vector-control programmes in isolation and do not really consider the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of mixed strategies and combination control. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of single and combined approaches in Thailand.

METHODS

The impacts of different control interventions were analysed using a previously published mathematical model of dengue epidemiology and control incorporating seasonality, age structure, consecutive infection, cross protection, immune enhancement and combined vector-host transmission. An economic model was applied to simulation results to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 4 interventions and their various combinations (6 strategies): i) routine vaccination of 1-year olds; ii) chemical vector control strategies targeting adult and larval stages separately; iii) environmental management/ public health education and awareness [EM/ PHEA]). Payer and societal perspectives were considered. The health burden of dengue fever was assessed using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost. Costs and effects were assessed for 10 years. Costs were discounted at 3% annually and updated to 2013 United States Dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out after strategies were rank-ordered by cost, with results presented in a table of incremental analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken; and the impact and cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia was evaluated in exploratory scenario analyses.

RESULTS

From the payer and societal perspectives, 2 combination strategies were considered optimal, as all other control strategies were dominated. Vaccination plus adulticide plus EM/ PHEA was deemed cost-effective according to multiple cost-effectiveness criteria. From the societal perspective, incremental differences vs. adulticide and EM/ PHEA resulted in costs of $157.6 million and DALYs lost of 12,599, giving an expected ICER of $12,508 per DALY averted. Exploratory scenario analyses showed Wolbachia to be highly cost-effective ($343 per DALY averted) vs. other single control measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model shows that individual interventions can be cost-effective, but that important epidemiological reductions and economic impacts are demonstrated when interventions are combined as part of an integrated approach to combating dengue fever. Exploratory scenario analyses demonstrated the potential epidemiological and cost-effective impact of Wolbachia when deployed at scale on a nationwide basis. Our findings were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

The TIRS trial: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial assessing the efficacy of preventive targeted indoor residual spraying to reduce Aedes-borne viral illnesses in Merida, Mexico

BACKGROUND

Current urban vector control strategies have failed to contain dengue epidemics and to prevent the global expansion of Aedes-borne viruses (ABVs: dengue, chikungunya, Zika). Part of the challenge in sustaining effective ABV control emerges from the paucity of evidence regarding the epidemiological impact of any Aedes control method. A strategy for which there is limited epidemiological evidence is targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS). TIRS is a modification of classic malaria indoor residual spraying that accounts for Aedes aegypti resting behavior by applying residual insecticides on exposed lower sections of walls (< 1.5 m), under furniture, and on dark surfaces.

METHODS/DESIGN

We are pursuing a two-arm, parallel, unblinded, cluster randomized controlled trial to quantify the overall efficacy of TIRS in reducing the burden of laboratory-confirmed ABV clinical disease (primary endpoint). The trial will be conducted in the city of Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico (population ~ 1million), where we will prospectively follow 4600 children aged 2-15 years at enrollment, distributed in 50 clusters of 5 × 5 city blocks each. Clusters will be randomly allocated (n = 25 per arm) using covariate-constrained randomization. A "fried egg" design will be followed, in which all blocks of the 5 × 5 cluster receive the intervention, but all sampling to evaluate the epidemiological and entomological endpoints will occur in the "yolk," the center 3 × 3 city blocks of each cluster. TIRS will be implemented as a preventive application (~ 1-2 months prior to the beginning of the ABV season). Active monitoring for symptomatic ABV illness will occur through weekly household visits and enhanced surveillance. Annual sero-surveys will be performed after each transmission season and entomological evaluations of Ae. aegypti indoor abundance and ABV infection rates monthly during the period of active surveillance. Epidemiological and entomological evaluation will continue for up to three transmission seasons.

DISCUSSION

The findings from this study will provide robust epidemiological evidence of the efficacy of TIRS in reducing ABV illness and infection. If efficacious, TIRS could drive a paradigm shift in Aedes control by considering Ae. aegypti behavior to guide residual insecticide applications and changing deployment to preemptive control (rather than in response to symptomatic cases), two major enhancements to existing practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04343521 . Registered on 13 April 2020. The protocol also complies with the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (Additional file 1).

PRIMARY SPONSOR

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH/NIAID).

After the honeymoon, the divorce: Unexpected outcomes of disease control measures against endemic infections

The lack of effective vaccines for many endemic diseases often forces policymakers to rely on non-immunizing control measures, such as vector control, to reduce the massive burden of these diseases. Controls can have well-known counterintuitive effects on endemic infections, including the honeymoon effect, in which partially effective controls cause not only a greater initial reduction in infection than expected, but also large outbreaks during control resulting from accumulation of susceptibles. Unfortunately, many control measures cannot be maintained indefinitely, and the results of cessation are poorly understood. Here, we examine the results of stopped or failed non-immunizing control measures in endemic settings. By using a mathematical model to compare the cumulative number of cases expected with and without control, we show that deployment of control can lead to a larger total number of infections, counting from the time that control started, than without any control-the divorce effect. This result is directly related to the population-level loss of immunity resulting from non-immunizing controls and is seen in a variety of models when non-immunizing controls are used against an infection that confers immunity. Finally, we examine three control plans for minimizing the magnitude of the divorce effect in seasonal infections and show that they are incapable of eliminating the divorce effect. While we do not suggest stopping control programs that rely on non-immunizing controls, our results strongly argue that the accumulation of susceptibility should be considered before deploying such controls against endemic infections when indefinite use of the control is unlikely. We highlight that our results are particularly germane to endemic mosquito-borne infections, such as dengue virus, both for routine management involving vector control and for field trials of novel control approaches, and in the context of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at COVID-19.

Review of Phytochemical Compounds as Antiviral Agents Against Arboviruses from the Genera Flavivirus and Alphavirus

Arboviruses are a diverse group of viruses that are among the major causes of emerging infectious diseases. Arboviruses from the genera flavivirus and alphavirus are the most important human arboviruses from a public health perspective. During recent decades, these viruses have been responsible for millions of infections and deaths around the world. Over the past few years, several investigations have been carried out to identify antiviral agents to treat these arbovirus infections. The use of synthetic antiviral compounds is often unsatisfactory since they may raise the risk of viral mutation; they are costly and possess either side effects or toxicity. One attractive strategy is the use of plants as promising sources of novel antiviral compounds that present significant inhibitory effects on these viruses. In this review, we describe advances in the exploitation of compounds and extracts from natural sources that target the vital proteins and enzymes involved in arbovirus replication.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases Emergence/Resurgence and How to Effectively Control It Biologically

Deadly pathogens and parasites are transmitted by vectors and the mosquito is considered the most threatening vector in public health, transmitting these pathogens to humans and animals. We are currently witnessing the emergence/resurgence in new regions/populations of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, such as arboviruses and malaria. This resurgence may be the consequence of numerous complex parameters, but the major cause remains the mismanagement of insecticide use and the emergence of resistance. Biological control programmes have rendered promising results but several highly effective techniques, such as genetic manipulation, remain insufficiently considered as a control mechanism. Currently, new strategies based on attractive toxic sugar baits and new agents, such as Wolbachia and Asaia, are being intensively studied for potential use as alternatives to chemicals. Research into new insecticides, Insect Growth Regulators, and repellent compounds is pressing, and the improvement of biological strategies may provide key solutions to prevent outbreaks, decrease the danger to at-risk populations, and mitigate resistance.

RC, Perkins TA. Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agent-based model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best threshold-based strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was threshold-based, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide.

Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions

Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges and seem unabated by current vector control programs. Effective control of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vector control and vaccination using an agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y of data. Our intervention models are informed by targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) experiments; trial outcomes and World Health Organization (WHO) testing guidance for the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV; and preliminary results for in-development vaccines. We evaluated several implementation options, including varying coverage levels; staggered introductions; and a one-time, large-scale vaccination campaign. We found that CYD-TDV and TIRS interfere: while the combination outperforms either alone, performance is lower than estimated from their separate benefits. The conventional model hypothesized for in-development vaccines, however, performs synergistically with TIRS, amplifying effectiveness well beyond their independent impacts. If the preliminary performance by either of the in-development vaccines is upheld, a one-time, large-scale campaign followed by routine vaccination alongside aggressive new vector control could enable short-term elimination, with nearly all cases avoided for a decade despite continuous dengue reintroductions. If elimination is impracticable due to resource limitations, less ambitious implementations of this combination still produce amplified, longer-lasting effectiveness over single-approach interventions.

Bioefficacy of Two Nonpyrethroid Insecticides for Targeted Indoor Residual Spraying Against Pyrethroid-Resistant Aedes aegypti

We evaluated the efficacy of bendiocarb (Ficam W^® 80%) and pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic 300CS^® 28.16%), applied to different surfaces potentially sprayable within houses during the application of a targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) against a field pyrethroid-resistant strain of Aedes aegypti. Bioassays with cones were performed on cement (walls), wood (doors), and textile (cloth) surfaces within typical houses in the Mexican city of Merida (n = 10). Optimal residual efficacy (>80% of mean mortality) of bendiocarb ranged from 3 months (cement) to 2 months (wood and textiles). Residual efficacy of pirimiphos-methyl ranged from 5 months (cement) to 2 months (wood and textiles). Both insecticides proved to be effective as adulticides against field Ae. aegypti and may be useful in mosquito control programs implementing TIRS with pyrethroid-resistant populations.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for infectious disease modelling

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) techniques are a suite of model fitting methods which can be implemented without a using likelihood function. In order to use ABC in a time-efficient manner users must make several design decisions including how to code the ABC algorithm and the type of ABC algorithm to use. Furthermore, ABC relies on a number of user defined choices which can greatly effect the accuracy of estimation. Having a clear understanding of these factors in reducing computation time and improving accuracy allows users to make more informed decisions when planning analyses. In this paper, we present an introduction to ABC with a focus of application to infectious disease models. We present a tutorial on coding practice for ABC in R and three case studies to illustrate the application of ABC to infectious disease models.

Why should we apply ABM for decision analysis for infectious diseases?-An example for dengue interventions

For the evaluation of infectious-diseases interventions, the transmissible nature of such diseases plays a central role. Agent-based models (ABM) allow for dynamic transmission modeling but publications are limited. We aim to provide an overview of important characteristics of ABM for decision-analytic modeling of infectious diseases. A case study of dengue epidemics illustrates model characteristics, conceptualization, calibration and model analysis. First, major characteristics of ABM are outlined and discussed based on ISPOR and ISPOR-SMDM Good Practice guidelines. Second, in our case study, we modeled a dengue outbreak in Cebu City (Philippines) to assess the impact interventions to control the relative growth of the mosquito population. Model outcomes include prevalence and incidence of infected persons. The modular ABM simulates persons and mosquitoes over an annual time horizon considering daily time steps. The model was calibrated and validated. ABM is a dynamic, individual-level modeling approach that is capable to reproduce direct and indirect effects of interventions for infectious diseases. The ability to replicate emerging behavior and to include human behavior or the behavior of other agents is a distinguishing modeling characteristic (e.g., compared to Markov models). Modeling behavior may, however, require extensive calibration and validation. The analyzed hypothetical effectiveness of dengue interventions showed that a reduced human-mosquito ratio of 1:2.5 during rainy seasons leads already to a substantial decrease of infected persons. ABM can support decision-analyses for infectious diseases including disease dynamics, emerging behavior, and providing a high level of reusability due to modularity.

Evaluation and Comparison of Spray Equipment for Indoor Residual Spraying

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently recommended indoor residual spraying (IRS) as part of a vector control strategy to combat Aedes-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Hand compression sprayers have been used in malaria prevention and control programs worldwide since the 1950s and are a standard for IRS application. However, there are technological advances that should be considered to improve IRS application (e.g., flow-control valves, rechargeable-battery equipment, reduced-drift nozzles, etc.), particularly if interventions are performed in urban areas to target Aedes aegypti. Using WHO guidelines, we contrasted technical characteristics of potential IRS equipment including hand compression sprayers (Hudson X-pert, Goizper IK Vector Control Super), rechargeable-battery sprayers (Solo 416, Birchmeier REC 15ABZ, Hudson NeverPump), and motorized sprayers (Honda WJR 2525, Kawashima AK35GX). Measurements included flow rate, droplet size, battery/fuel life, and technical/physical characteristics. Flow rate, the most important parameter, of the Hudson X-pert was stabilized at 550 ml/min by the use of a control flow valve (CFV). The IK Vector Control Super had integrated CFVs and produced a similar flow as the Hudson X-pert. Rechargeable-battery equipment provided consistent flow as well as negligible noise. Motorized sprayers also produced consistent flow, but their weight, high noise pollution when used indoors, and high engine temperature made them highly unpleasant for technicians. We identify alternatives to the more traditional hand compression Hudson X-pert sprayer with technical and operational considerations for performing IRS.

Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil

Management of vector population is a commonly used method for mitigating transmission of mosquito-borne infections, but quantitative information on its practical public health impact is scarce. We study the effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in public spaces for preventing secondary dengue virus (DENV) cases in Porto Alegre, a non-endemic metropolitan area in Brazil. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on detailed entomological, epidemiological and population data, accounting for the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and humans in the study area and spatial transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated against the distribution of DENV cluster sizes previously estimated from the same geographical setting. We estimated a ULV-induced mortality of 40% for mosquitoes and found that the implemented control protocol avoided about 24% of symptomatic cases occurred in the area throughout the 2015-2016 epidemic season. Increasing the radius of treatment or the mortality of mosquitoes by treating gardens and/or indoor premises would greatly improve the result of control, but trade-offs with respect to increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed. We found a moderate effectiveness for ULV-spraying in public areas, mainly due to the limited ability of this strategy in effectively controlling the vector population. These results can be used to support the design of control strategies in low-incidence, non-endemic settings.

Efficacy of novel indoor residual spraying methods targeting pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti within experimental houses

Challenges in maintaining high effectiveness of classic vector control in urban areas has renewed the interest in indoor residual spraying (IRS) as a promising approach for Aedes-borne disease prevention. While IRS has many benefits, application time and intrusive indoor applications make its scalability in urban areas difficult. Modifying IRS to account for Ae. aegypti resting behavior, named targeted IRS (TIRS, spraying walls below 1.5 m and under furniture) can reduce application time; however, an untested assumption is that modifications to IRS will not negatively impact entomological efficacy. We conducted a comparative experimental study evaluating the residual efficacy of classically-applied IRS (as developed for malaria control) compared to two TIRS application methods using a carbamate insecticide against a pyrethroid-resistant, field-derived Ae. aegypti strain. We performed our study within a novel experimental house setting (n = 9 houses) located in Merida (Mexico), with similar layouts and standardized contents. Classic IRS application (insecticide applied to full walls and under furniture) was compared to: a) TIRS: insecticide applied to walls below 1.5 m and under furniture, and b) Resting Site TIRS (RS-TIRS): insecticide applied only under furniture. Mosquito mortality was measured eight times post-application (out to six months post-application) by releasing 100 Ae. aegypti females /house and collecting live and dead individuals after 24 hrs exposure. Compared to Classic IRS, TIRS and RS-TIRS took less time to apply (31% and 82% reduction, respectively) and used less insecticide (38% and 85% reduction, respectively). Mortality of pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti did not significantly differ among the three IRS application methods up to two months post application, and did not significantly differ between Classic IRS and TIRS up to four months post application. These data illustrate that optimizing IRS to more efficiently target Ae. aegypti can both reduce application time and insecticide volume with no apparent reduction in entomological efficacy.

Vector control is the primary strategy for managing Aedes aegypti and reducing transmission of Aedes-borne diseases; however, the indoor resting behavior of Ae. aegypti and the evolution of insecticide resistance reduces the effectiveness of many vector control tactics. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is effective against Ae. aegypti, but lengthy application time makes IRS difficult to scale within urban environments. We compared the application and entomological efficacy of Classic IRS against two novel Aedes-targeting IRS application methods (Targeted IRS [TIRS]- insecticide applied to walls below 1.5 m and under furniture and Resting Site TIRS [RS-TIRS]- insecticide applied only under furniture) within experimental houses using a carbamate insecticide. Both TIRS and RS-TIRS took less time to apply and used less insecticide compared to Classic IRS. Mortality of pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti did not differ among treatments out to two months post-application, and there was no difference in mortality between Classic IRS and TIRS out to four months post-application. These data provide evidence that IRS application methods can be improved to take less time and insecticide yet not lose entomological efficacy, making TIRS more scalable within urban environments. However, larger field studies with epidemiologic endpoints are needed to further assess the efficacy of these modified TIRS techniques.