Inter- and intra-host sequence diversity reveal the emergence of viral variants during an overwintering epidemic caused by dengue virus serotype 2 in southern Taiwan

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Whole Genome Sequencing of DENV-2 isolated from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Esmeraldas, Ecuador. Genomic epidemiology of genotype III Southern Asian-American in the country

Ecuador is a tropical country reporting Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks with areas of hyperendemic viral transmission. Entomo-virological surveillance and monitoring effort conducted in the Northwestern border province of Esmeraldas in April 2022, five pools of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from a rural community tested positive for DENV serotype 2 by RT-qPCR. One pool was sequenced by Illumina MiSeq, and it corresponded to genotype III Southern Asian-American. Comparison with other genomes revealed genetic similarity to a human DENV genome sequenced in 2021, also from Esmeraldas. Potential introduction events to the country could have originated from Colombia, considering the vicinity of the collection sites to the neighboring country and high human movement. The inclusion of genomic information complements entomo-virological surveillance, providing valuable insights into genetic variants. This contribution enhances our understanding of Dengue virus (DENV) epidemiology in rural areas and guides evidence-based decisions for surveillance and interventions.

The emergence and successful elimination of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains with increasing epidemic potential in Taiwan's 2021 outbreak

Taiwan's experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 guided its development of strategies to defend against SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, which enabled the successful control of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from 2020 through March 2021. However, in late-April 2021, the imported Alpha variant began to cause COVID-19 outbreaks at an exceptional rate in Taiwan. In this study, we aimed to determine what epidemiological conditions enabled the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant strains to become dominant and decline later during a surge in the outbreak. In conjunction with contact-tracing investigations, we used our bioinformatics software, CoVConvert and IniCoV, to analyze whole-genome sequences of 101 Taiwan Alpha strains. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses revealed the epidemiological factors associated with viral dominance. Univariate analysis showed the dominant Alpha strains were preferentially selected in the surge's epicenter (p = 0.0024) through intensive human-to-human contact and maintained their dominance for 1.5 months until the Zero-COVID Policy was implemented. Multivariable regression found that the epidemic periods (p = 0.007) and epicenter (p = 0.001) were two significant factors associated with the dominant virus strains spread in the community. These dominant virus strains emerged at the outbreak's epicenter with frequent human-to-human contact and low vaccination coverage. The Level 3 Restrictions and Zero-COVID policy successfully controlled the outbreak in the community without city lockdowns. Our integrated method can identify the epidemiological conditions for emerging dominant virus with increasing epidemiological potential and support decision makers in rapidly containing outbreaks using public health measures that target fast-spreading virus strains.

Genotyping of dengue virus from infected tissue samples embedded in paraffin

Dengue has become one of the vector-borne diseases that affect humans worldwide. In Latin American countries, Colombia is historically one of the most affected by epidemics of this flavivirus. The underreporting of signs and symptoms of probable cases of dengue, the lack of characterization of the serotypes of the infection, and the few detailed studies of postmortem necropsies of patients are among other conditions that have delayed progress in the knowledge of the pathogenesis of the disease. This study presents the results of fragment sequencing assays on paraffin-embedded tissue samples from fatal DENV cases during the 2010 epidemic in Colombia. We found that the predominant serotype was DENV-2, with the Asian/American genotype of lineages 1 and 2. This work is one of the few reports of the circulating genotypes of dengue during the 2010 epidemic in Colombia, one of the most lethal dates in the country's history.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Dengue in Large and Small Population Centers, Northern Ecuador

Although dengue is typically considered an urban disease, rural communities are also at high risk. To clarify dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) transmission in settings with characteristics generally considered rural (e.g., lower population density, remoteness), we conducted a phylogenetic analysis in 6 communities in northwestern Ecuador. DENV RNA was detected by PCR in 121/488 serum samples collected from febrile case-patients during 2019-2021. Phylogenetic analysis of 27 samples from Ecuador and other countries in South America confirmed that DENV-1 circulated during May 2019-March 2020 and DENV-2 circulated during December 2020-July 2021. Combining locality and isolation dates, we found strong evidence that DENV entered Ecuador through the northern province of Esmeraldas. Phylogenetic patterns suggest that, within this province, communities with larger populations and commercial centers were more often the source of DENV but that smaller, remote communities also play a role in regional transmission dynamics.

Fatal Human Infection with Evidence of Intrahost Variation of Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus, Alabama, USA, 2019

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an arbovirus in the family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, found in North America and associated with freshwater/hardwood swamps in the Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes regions. EEEV disease in humans is rare but causes substantial illness and death. To investigate the molecular epidemiology and microevolution of EEEV from a fatal case in Alabama, USA, in 2019, we used next-generation sequencing of serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Phylogenetic inference indicated that the infecting strain may be closely related to isolates from Florida detected during 2010-2014, suggesting potential seeding from Florida. EEEV detected in serum displayed a higher degree of variability with more single-nucleotide variants than that detected in the CSF. These data refine our knowledge of EEEV molecular epidemiologic dynamics in the Gulf Coast region and demonstrate potential quasispecies bottlenecking within the central nervous system of a human host.

Dengue fever and dengue virus in the People's Republic of China

Infection with dengue virus (DENV) leads to symptoms variable from dengue fever to severe dengue, which has posed a huge socioeconomic and disease burden to the world population, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. To date, four serotypes of DENV (DENV-1 to DENV-4) have been identified to sustain the transmission cycle in humans. In the past decades, dengue incidences have become more frequent, and four serotypes and various genotypes have been identified in PR China. Several large-scale dengue outbreaks and frequent local endemics occurred in the southern and coastal provinces, and the imported dengue cases accounted primarily for the initiation of the epidemics. No antiviral drug exists for dengue, and no vaccine has been approved to use in PR China, however strategies including public awareness, national reporting system of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, vector mosquito control, personal protection, and improved environmental sanitation have greatly reduced dengue prevalence. Some new technologies in vector mosquito control are emerging and being applied for dengue control. China's territory spans tropical, subtropical, and temperate climates, hence understanding the dengue status in China will be of beneficial for the global prevention and control of dengue. Here, we review the dengue status in PR China for the past decades and the strategies emerging for dengue control.

Effect of low-passage number on dengue consensus genomes and intra-host variant frequencies

Intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) have been increasingly used in genomic epidemiology to increase phylogenetic resolution and reconstruct fine-scale outbreak dynamics. These analyses are preferably done on sequence data from direct clinical samples, but in many cases due to low viral loads, there might not be enough genetic material for deep sequencing and iSNV determination. Isolation of the virus from clinical samples with low-passage number increases viral load, but few studies have investigated how dengue virus (DENV) culture isolation from a clinical sample impacts the consensus sequence and the intra-host virus population frequencies. In this study, we investigate consensus and iSNV frequency differences between DENV sequenced directly from clinical samples and their corresponding low-passage isolates. Twenty five DENV1 and DENV2 positive sera and their corresponding viral isolates (T. splendens inoculation and C6/36 passage) were obtained from a prospective cohort study in the Philippines. These were sequenced on MiSeq with minimum nucleotide depth of coverage of 500×, and iSNVs were detected using LoFreq. For both DENV1 and DENV2, we found a maximum of one consensus nucleotide difference between clinical sample and isolate. Interestingly, we found that iSNVs with frequencies ≥5 % were often preserved between the samples, and that the number of iSNV positions, and sample diversity, at this frequency cutoff did not differ significantly between the sample pairs (clinical sample and isolate) in either DENV1 or DENV2 data. Our results show that low-passage DENV isolate consensus genomes are largely representative of their direct sample parental viruses, and that low-passage isolates often mirror high frequency within-host variants from direct samples.

Population bottlenecks and founder effects: implications for mosquito-borne arboviral emergence

Transmission of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) involves infection and replication in both arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts. Nearly all arboviruses are RNA viruses with high mutation frequencies, which leaves them vulnerable to genetic drift and fitness losses owing to population bottlenecks during vector infection, dissemination from the midgut to the salivary glands and transmission to the vertebrate host. However, despite these bottlenecks, they seem to avoid fitness declines that can result from Muller's ratchet. In addition, founder effects that occur during the geographic introductions of human-amplified arboviruses, including chikungunya virus and Zika virus, can affect epidemic and endemic circulation, as well as virulence. In this Review, we discuss the role of genetic drift following population bottlenecks and founder effects in arboviral evolution and spread, and the emergence of human disease.

Comparing machine learning with case-control models to identify confirmed dengue cases

In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has increased. Affected countries have responded with more effective surveillance strategies to detect outbreaks early, monitor the trends, and implement prevention and control measures. We have applied newly developed machine learning approaches to identify laboratory-confirmed dengue cases from 4,894 emergency department patients with dengue-like illness (DLI) who received laboratory tests. Among them, 60.11% (2942 cases) were confirmed to have dengue. Using just four input variables [age, body temperature, white blood cells counts (WBCs) and platelets], not only the state-of-the-art deep neural network (DNN) prediction models but also the conventional decision tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR) models delivered performances with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves areas under curves (AUCs) of the ranging from 83.75% to 85.87% [for DT, DNN and LR: 84.60% ± 0.03%, 85.87% ± 0.54%, 83.75% ± 0.17%, respectively]. Subgroup analyses found all the models were very sensitive particularly in the pre-epidemic period. Pre-peak sensitivities (<35 weeks) were 92.6%, 92.9%, and 93.1% in DT, DNN, and LR respectively. Adjusted odds ratios examined with LR for low WBCs [≤ 3.2 (x103/μL)], fever (≥38°C), low platelet counts [< 100 (x103/μL)], and elderly (≥ 65 years) were 5.17 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.96-6.76], 3.17 [95%CI: 2.74-3.66], 3.10 [95%CI: 2.44-3.94], and 1.77 [95%CI: 1.50-2.10], respectively. Our prediction models can readily be used in resource-poor countries where viral/serologic tests are inconvenient and can also be applied for real-time syndromic surveillance to monitor trends of dengue cases and even be integrated with mosquito/environment surveillance for early warning and immediate prevention/control measures. In other words, a local community hospital/clinic with an instrument of complete blood counts (including platelets) can provide a sentinel screening during outbreaks. In conclusion, the machine learning approach can facilitate medical and public health efforts to minimize the health threat of dengue epidemics. However, laboratory confirmation remains the primary goal of surveillance and outbreak investigation.

Application of Next-Generation Sequencing to Reveal How Evolutionary Dynamics of Viral Population Shape Dengue Epidemiology

Dengue viral (DENV) infection results in a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations from asymptomatic, mild fever to severe hemorrhage diseases upon infection. Severe dengue is the leading cause of pediatric deaths and/or hospitalizations, which are a major public health burden in dengue-endemic or hyperendemic countries. Like other RNA viruses, DENV continues to evolve. Adaptive mutations are obscured by the major consensus sequence (so-called wild-type sequences) and can only be identified once they become the dominant viruses in the virus population, a process that can take months or years. Traditional surveillance systems still rely on Sanger consensus sequencing. However, with the recent advancement of high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, the genome-wide investigation of virus population within-host and between-hosts becomes achievable. Thus, viral population sequencing by NGS can increase our understanding of the changing epidemiology and evolution of viral genomics at the molecular level. This review focuses on the studies within the recent decade utilizing NGS in different experimental and epidemiological settings to understand how the adaptive evolution of dengue variants shapes the dengue epidemic and disease severity through its transmission. We propose three types of studies that can be pursued in the future to enhance our surveillance for epidemic prediction and better medical management.

Positive epistasis between viral polymerase and the 3' untranslated region of its genome reveals the epidemiologic fitness of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is a global health threat, causing repeated epidemics throughout the tropical world. While low herd immunity levels to any one of the four antigenic types of DENV predispose populations to outbreaks, viral genetic determinants that confer greater fitness for epidemic spread is an important but poorly understood contributor of dengue outbreaks. Here we report that positive epistasis between the coding and noncoding regions of the viral genome combined to elicit an epidemiologic fitness phenotype associated with the 1994 DENV2 outbreak in Puerto Rico. We found that five amino acid substitutions in the NS5 protein reduced viral genomic RNA (gRNA) replication rate to achieve a more favorable and relatively more abundant subgenomic flavivirus RNA (sfRNA), a byproduct of host 5'-3' exoribonuclease activity. The resulting increase in sfRNA relative to gRNA levels not only inhibited type I interferon (IFN) expression in infected cells through a previously described mechanism, but also enabled sfRNA to compete with gRNA for packaging into infectious particles. We suggest that delivery of sfRNA to new susceptible cells to inhibit type I IFN induction before gRNA replication and without the need for further de novo sfRNA synthesis could form a "preemptive strike" strategy against DENV.

Molecular epidemiological characteristics of dengue virus carried by 34 patients in Guangzhou in 2018

Dengue fever is a major worldwide public health problem that, as estimated by the WHO, causes epidemics in over 100 countries, resulting in hundreds of millions of dengue virus (DENV) infections every year. In China, dengue fever mainly occurs in coastal areas. Recurring dengue outbreaks were reported by Guangdong Province almost every year since the first epidemic in 1978. DENV infections persisted in Guangzhou in consecutive years since 2000, with the dengue epidemic reaching a historical peak in 2014. Because Guangzhou is one of the largest cities for opening up in China, understanding the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in the city can hopefully provide a significant basis for developing effective dengue prevention strategies. In this study, a total of 34 DENV strains, including 29 DENV-1 strains and 5 DENV-2 strains, were isolated from a blood samples drawn from patients who were diagnosed with dengue fever by hospitals in Guangzhou during 2018. To explore the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever, the envelope (E) gene obtained from the isolates was amplified for phylogenetic analysis. The results from the phylogenetic analysis showed that DENV in Guangzhou was mainly imported from Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, propagation paths based on phylogeographical analysis suggested potential local dengue transmission in Guangzhou.