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Chadwick FJ, Haydon DT, Husmeier D, Ovaskainen O, Matthiopoulos J. LIES of omission: complex observation processes in ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:368-380. [PMID: 37949794 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.10.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2023] [Revised: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Advances in statistics mean that it is now possible to tackle increasingly sophisticated observation processes. The intricacies and ambitious scale of modern data collection techniques mean that this is now essential. Methodological research to make inference about the biological process while accounting for the observation process has expanded dramatically, but solutions are often presented in field-specific terms, limiting our ability to identify commonalities between methods. We suggest a typology of observation processes that could improve translation between fields and aid methodological synthesis. We propose the LIES framework (defining observation processes in terms of issues of Latency, Identifiability, Effort and Scale) and illustrate its use with both simple examples and more complex case studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fergus J Chadwick
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK; Centre for Research Into Ecological and Environmental Monitoring, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland, UK.
| | - Daniel T Haydon
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Dirk Husmeier
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, P.O. Box 35 FI-40014, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
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Lv MM, Sun XD, Jin Z, Wu HR, Li MT, Sun GQ, Pei X, Wu YT, Liu P, Li L, Zhang J. Dynamic analysis of rabies transmission and elimination in mainland China. One Health 2023; 17:100615. [PMID: 37638210 PMCID: PMC10458286 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Rabies is an acute zoonotic infectious disease caused by rabies virus. In 2015, the World Health Organization proposed the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies by 2030. In response to this goal positively, China has been dedicated to the control and elimination of rabies mainly caused by dogs, for nearly 10 years. By applying infectious disease dynamics, in this paper, we establish a dog-human rabies transmission model to forecast future epidemic trends of rabies, assess whether the goal of eliminating dog-induced human rabies cases in China can be achieved in 2030, and further evaluate and suggest the follow-up sustained preventive measures after the elimination of human rabies. By analyzing and simulating above dynamic model, it is concluded that rabies has been well controlled in China in recent years, but dog-induced human rabies cannot be eliminated by 2030 according to current situation. In addition, we propose to improve rabies control efforts by increasing the immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs, controlling the number of stray dogs and preventing the import of rabies virus in wild animals. Immunization coverage rate of rural domestic dogs which is currently less than 10% is far from requirement, and it needs to reach 50%-60% to meet the goal of 2030. Since it is difficult to immunize stray dogs, we suggest to control the number of stray dogs below 15.27 million to achieve the goal. If the goal of eliminating human rabies is reached in 2030, the essential immunization coverage needs to be maintained for 18 years to reduce the number of canine rabies cases to zero. Lastly, to prevent transmission of rabies virus from wild animals to dogs, the thresholds of the number of dogs and the immunization coverage rate of dogs after eliminating canine rabies cases are also discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miao-Miao Lv
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
- Complex Systems and Data Science Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Taiyuan 030006, China
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China
| | - Xiang-Dong Sun
- The Laboratory of Animal Epidemiological Surveillance, China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Shandong, Qingdao 266032, China
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
- Complex Systems and Data Science Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Taiyuan 030006, China
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China
| | - Hai-Rong Wu
- School of Journalism and Communication, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
| | - Ming-Tao Li
- College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030024, China
| | - Gui-Quan Sun
- School of Mathematics, North University of China, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030051, China
| | - Xin Pei
- College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030024, China
| | - Yu-Tong Wu
- Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China
| | - Ping Liu
- The Laboratory of Animal Epidemiological Surveillance, China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Shandong, Qingdao 266032, China
| | - Li Li
- School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
| | - Juan Zhang
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
- Complex Systems and Data Science Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education, Taiyuan 030006, China
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3
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Sararat C, Changruenngam S, Chumkaeo A, Wiratsudakul A, Pan-ngum W, Modchang C. The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010397. [PMID: 35536861 PMCID: PMC9126089 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2021] [Revised: 05/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chayanin Sararat
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Suttikiat Changruenngam
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Arun Chumkaeo
- Songkhla Provincial Livestock Office, Muang, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Anuwat Wiratsudakul
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, and the Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
| | - Wirichada Pan-ngum
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Charin Modchang
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, Ministry of Education, Bangkok, Thailand
- * E-mail:
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4
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Rupprecht CE, Mani RS, Mshelbwala PP, Recuenco SE, Ward MP. Rabies in the Tropics. CURRENT TROPICAL MEDICINE REPORTS 2022; 9:28-39. [PMID: 35371908 PMCID: PMC8960221 DOI: 10.1007/s40475-022-00257-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Purpose of Review Rabies is an ancient yet still neglected tropical disease (NTD). This review focuses upon highlights of recent research and peer-reviewed communications on the underestimated tropical burden of disease and its management due to the complicated dynamics of virulent viral species, diverse mammalian reservoirs, and tens of millions of exposed humans and animals – and how laboratory-based surveillance at each level informs upon pathogen spread and risks of transmission, for targeted prevention and control. Recent Findings While both human and rabies animal cases in enzootic areas over the past 5 years were reported to PAHO/WHO and OIE by member countries, still there is a huge gap between these “official” data and the need for enhanced surveillance efforts to meet global program goals. Summary A review of the complex aspects of rabies perpetuation in human, domestic animal, and wildlife communities, coupled with a high fatality rate despite the existence of efficacious biologics (but no therapeutics), warrants the need for a One Health approach toward detection via improved laboratory-based surveillance, with focal management at the viral source. More effective methods to prevent the spread of rabies from enzootic to free zones are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles E. Rupprecht
- LYSSA LLC, Atlanta, GA USA
- School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL USA
| | - Reeta S. Mani
- Department of Neurovirology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research in Rabies, National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences, Bangalore, Karnataka India
| | - Philip P. Mshelbwala
- School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Sergio E. Recuenco
- Facultad de Medicina San Fernando, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru
| | - Michael P. Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW Australia
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Warembourg C, Fournié G, Abakar MF, Alvarez D, Berger-González M, Odoch T, Wera E, Alobo G, Carvallo ETL, Bal VD, López Hernandez AL, Madaye E, Maximiano Sousa F, Naminou A, Roquel P, Hartnack S, Zinsstag J, Dürr S. Predictors of free-roaming domestic dogs' contact network centrality and their relevance for rabies control. Sci Rep 2021; 11:12898. [PMID: 34145344 PMCID: PMC8213792 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92308-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Free roaming domestic dogs (FRDD) are the main vectors for rabies transmission to humans worldwide. To eradicate rabies from a dog population, current recommendations focus on random vaccination with at least 70% coverage. Studies suggest that targeting high-risk subpopulations could reduce the required vaccination coverage, and increase the likelihood of success of elimination campaigns. The centrality of a dog in a contact network can be used as a measure of its potential contribution to disease transmission. Our objectives were to investigate social networks of FRDD in eleven study sites in Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia and Uganda, and to identify characteristics of dogs, and their owners, associated with their centrality in the networks. In all study sites, networks had small-world properties and right-skewed degree distributions, suggesting that vaccinating highly connected dogs would be more effective than random vaccination. Dogs were more connected in rural than urban settings, and the likelihood of contacts was negatively correlated with the distance between dogs' households. While heterogeneity in dog's connectedness was observed in all networks, factors predicting centrality and likelihood of contacts varied across networks and countries. We therefore hypothesize that the investigated dog and owner characteristics resulted in different contact patterns depending on the social, cultural and economic context. We suggest to invest into understanding of the sociocultural structures impacting dog ownership and thus driving dog ecology, a requirement to assess the potential of targeted vaccination in dog populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Warembourg
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
| | | | | | - Danilo Alvarez
- Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Monica Berger-González
- Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Terence Odoch
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Ewaldus Wera
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Grace Alobo
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | | | | | - Enos Madaye
- Institut de Recherche en Elevage pour le Développement, N'Djaména, Chad
| | - Filipe Maximiano Sousa
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Abakar Naminou
- Institut de Recherche en Elevage pour le Développement, N'Djaména, Chad
| | - Pablo Roquel
- Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Sonja Hartnack
- Section of Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jakob Zinsstag
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Salome Dürr
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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6
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Mathematical modelling and phylodynamics for the study of dog rabies dynamics and control: A scoping review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009449. [PMID: 34043640 PMCID: PMC8189497 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rabies is a fatal yet vaccine-preventable disease. In the last two decades, domestic dog populations have been shown to constitute the predominant reservoir of rabies in developing countries, causing 99% of human rabies cases. Despite substantial control efforts, dog rabies is still widely endemic and is spreading across previously rabies-free areas. Developing a detailed understanding of dog rabies dynamics and the impact of vaccination is essential to optimize existing control strategies and developing new ones. In this scoping review, we aimed at disentangling the respective contributions of mathematical models and phylodynamic approaches to advancing the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in domestic dog populations. We also addressed the methodological limitations of both approaches and the remaining issues related to studying rabies spread and how this could be applied to rabies control. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We reviewed how mathematical modelling of disease dynamics and phylodynamics have been developed and used to characterize dog rabies dynamics and control. Through a detailed search of the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, we identified a total of n = 59 relevant studies using mathematical models (n = 30), phylodynamic inference (n = 22) and interdisciplinary approaches (n = 7). We found that despite often relying on scarce rabies epidemiological data, mathematical models investigated multiple aspects of rabies dynamics and control. These models confirmed the overwhelming efficacy of massive dog vaccination campaigns in all settings and unraveled the role of dog population structure and frequent introductions in dog rabies maintenance. Phylodynamic approaches successfully disentangled the evolutionary and environmental determinants of rabies dispersal and consistently reported support for the role of reintroduction events and human-mediated transportation over long distances in the maintenance of rabies in endemic areas. Potential biases in data collection still need to be properly accounted for in most of these analyses. Finally, interdisciplinary studies were determined to provide the most comprehensive assessments through hypothesis generation and testing. They also represent new avenues, especially concerning the reconstruction of local transmission chains or clusters through data integration. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Despite advances in rabies knowledge, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the mechanisms of local spread, the role of wildlife in dog rabies maintenance, and the impact of community behavior on the efficacy of control strategies including vaccination of dogs. Future integrative approaches that use phylodynamic analyses and mechanistic models within a single framework could take full advantage of not only viral sequences but also additional epidemiological information as well as dog ecology data to refine our understanding of rabies spread and control. This would represent a significant improvement on past studies and a promising opportunity for canine rabies research in the frame of the One Health concept that aims to achieve better public health outcomes through cross-sector collaboration.
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7
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Warembourg C, Wera E, Odoch T, Bulu PM, Berger-González M, Alvarez D, Abakar MF, Maximiano Sousa F, Cunha Silva L, Alobo G, Bal VD, López Hernandez AL, Madaye E, Meo MS, Naminou A, Roquel P, Hartnack S, Dürr S. Comparative Study of Free-Roaming Domestic Dog Management and Roaming Behavior Across Four Countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. Front Vet Sci 2021; 8:617900. [PMID: 33748208 PMCID: PMC7970034 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.617900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Dogs play a major role in public health because of potential transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as rabies. Dog roaming behavior has been studied worldwide, including countries in Asia, Latin America, and Oceania, while studies on dog roaming behavior are lacking in Africa. Many of those studies investigated potential drivers for roaming, which could be used to refine disease control measures. However, it appears that results are often contradictory between countries, which could be caused by differences in study design or the influence of context-specific factors. Comparative studies on dog roaming behavior are needed to better understand domestic dog roaming behavior and address these discrepancies. The aim of this study was to investigate dog demography, management, and roaming behavior across four countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. We equipped 773 dogs with georeferenced contact sensors (106 in Chad, 303 in Guatemala, 217 in Indonesia, and 149 in Uganda) and interviewed the owners to collect information about the dog [e.g., sex, age, body condition score (BCS)] and its management (e.g., role of the dog, origin of the dog, owner-mediated transportation, confinement, vaccination, and feeding practices). Dog home range was computed using the biased random bridge method, and the core and extended home range sizes were considered. Using an AIC-based approach to select variables, country-specific linear models were developed to identify potential predictors for roaming. We highlighted similarities and differences in term of demography, dog management, and roaming behavior between countries. The median of the core home range size was 0.30 ha (95% range: 0.17-0.92 ha) in Chad, 0.33 ha (0.17-1.1 ha) in Guatemala, 0.30 ha (0.20-0.61 ha) in Indonesia, and 0.25 ha (0.15-0.72 ha) in Uganda. The median of the extended home range size was 7.7 ha (95% range: 1.1-103 ha) in Chad, 5.7 ha (1.5-27.5 ha) in Guatemala, 5.6 ha (1.6-26.5 ha) in Indonesia, and 5.7 ha (1.3-19.1 ha) in Uganda. Factors having a significant impact on the home range size in some of the countries included being male dog (positively), being younger than one year (negatively), being older than 6 years (negatively), having a low or a high BCS (negatively), being a hunting dog (positively), being a shepherd dog (positively), and time when the dog was not supervised or restricted (positively). However, the same outcome could have an impact in a country and no impact in another. We suggest that dog roaming behavior is complex and is closely related to the owner's socioeconomic context and transportation habits and the local environment. Free-roaming domestic dogs are not completely under human control but, contrary to wildlife, they strongly depend upon humans. This particular dog-human bound has to be better understood to explain their behavior and deal with free-roaming domestic dogs related issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Warembourg
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ewaldus Wera
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Terence Odoch
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Petrus Malo Bulu
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Monica Berger-González
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danilo Alvarez
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | - Filipe Maximiano Sousa
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Laura Cunha Silva
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Grace Alobo
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Valentin Dingamnayal Bal
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Enos Madaye
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Maria Satri Meo
- Animal Health Division, Agricultural Department of Sikka Regency, Flores, Indonesia
| | - Abakar Naminou
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Pablo Roquel
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Sonja Hartnack
- Section of Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Salome Dürr
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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8
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Warembourg C, Wera E, Odoch T, Bulu PM, Berger-González M, Alvarez D, Abakar MF, Maximiano Sousa F, Cunha Silva L, Alobo G, Bal VD, López Hernandez AL, Madaye E, Meo MS, Naminou A, Roquel P, Hartnack S, Dürr S. Comparative Study of Free-Roaming Domestic Dog Management and Roaming Behavior Across Four Countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. Front Vet Sci 2021. [PMID: 33748208 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.617900/full#b11] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Dogs play a major role in public health because of potential transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as rabies. Dog roaming behavior has been studied worldwide, including countries in Asia, Latin America, and Oceania, while studies on dog roaming behavior are lacking in Africa. Many of those studies investigated potential drivers for roaming, which could be used to refine disease control measures. However, it appears that results are often contradictory between countries, which could be caused by differences in study design or the influence of context-specific factors. Comparative studies on dog roaming behavior are needed to better understand domestic dog roaming behavior and address these discrepancies. The aim of this study was to investigate dog demography, management, and roaming behavior across four countries: Chad, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Uganda. We equipped 773 dogs with georeferenced contact sensors (106 in Chad, 303 in Guatemala, 217 in Indonesia, and 149 in Uganda) and interviewed the owners to collect information about the dog [e.g., sex, age, body condition score (BCS)] and its management (e.g., role of the dog, origin of the dog, owner-mediated transportation, confinement, vaccination, and feeding practices). Dog home range was computed using the biased random bridge method, and the core and extended home range sizes were considered. Using an AIC-based approach to select variables, country-specific linear models were developed to identify potential predictors for roaming. We highlighted similarities and differences in term of demography, dog management, and roaming behavior between countries. The median of the core home range size was 0.30 ha (95% range: 0.17-0.92 ha) in Chad, 0.33 ha (0.17-1.1 ha) in Guatemala, 0.30 ha (0.20-0.61 ha) in Indonesia, and 0.25 ha (0.15-0.72 ha) in Uganda. The median of the extended home range size was 7.7 ha (95% range: 1.1-103 ha) in Chad, 5.7 ha (1.5-27.5 ha) in Guatemala, 5.6 ha (1.6-26.5 ha) in Indonesia, and 5.7 ha (1.3-19.1 ha) in Uganda. Factors having a significant impact on the home range size in some of the countries included being male dog (positively), being younger than one year (negatively), being older than 6 years (negatively), having a low or a high BCS (negatively), being a hunting dog (positively), being a shepherd dog (positively), and time when the dog was not supervised or restricted (positively). However, the same outcome could have an impact in a country and no impact in another. We suggest that dog roaming behavior is complex and is closely related to the owner's socioeconomic context and transportation habits and the local environment. Free-roaming domestic dogs are not completely under human control but, contrary to wildlife, they strongly depend upon humans. This particular dog-human bound has to be better understood to explain their behavior and deal with free-roaming domestic dogs related issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Warembourg
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ewaldus Wera
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Terence Odoch
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Petrus Malo Bulu
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Monica Berger-González
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala.,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danilo Alvarez
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | - Filipe Maximiano Sousa
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Laura Cunha Silva
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Grace Alobo
- Kupang State Agricultural Polytechnic (Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang), West Timor, Indonesia
| | - Valentin Dingamnayal Bal
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Enos Madaye
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Maria Satri Meo
- Animal Health Division, Agricultural Department of Sikka Regency, Flores, Indonesia
| | - Abakar Naminou
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Animal Resources and Biosecurity, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Pablo Roquel
- Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Sonja Hartnack
- Section of Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Salome Dürr
- Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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9
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Gabriele-Rivet V, Ward MP, Arsenault J, London D, Brookes VJ. Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009124. [PMID: 33577573 PMCID: PMC7906478 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2020] [Revised: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km2, and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial. Although Australia is free from canine rabies, an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands is a realistic threat. The ubiquitous presence of dingoes in the wild, in association with large populations of free-roaming domestic dogs from northern Australian Indigenous communities, increases the risk of a rabies outbreak. Using a newly developed simulation model, we investigated the potential spread of rabies in a northern Australian dingo population. Nearly 60% of model simulations resulted in more than one pack infected. When spread did occur, outbreaks affected a median of 22 dingoes (an estimated 14% of the population in this area). The duration of infection, proportion of the population infected and spatial spread of the outbreak was greatest when rabies was introduced during the dry season and close to communities. Our results demonstrate that an incursion of rabies into the northern Australian dingo population would likely lead to a rabies outbreak, which would in turn pose a substantial threat to Indigenous communities in northern Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael P. Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Julie Arsenault
- Département de pathologie et microbiologie, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
| | - David London
- Physique des Particules, Faculté des arts et des sciences, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
| | - Victoria J. Brookes
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Faculty of Science, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, New South Wales, Australia
- Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (NSW Department of Primary Industries and Charles Sturt University), Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
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Kirkeby C, Brookes VJ, Ward MP, Dürr S, Halasa T. A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science. Front Vet Sci 2021; 7:546651. [PMID: 33575275 PMCID: PMC7870987 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.546651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carsten Kirkeby
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark,*Correspondence: Carsten Kirkeby
| | - Victoria J. Brookes
- School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Faculty of Science, Charles Sturt University, Wagga, NSW, Australia,Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University and NSW Department of Primary Industries), Wagga, NSW, Australia
| | - Michael P. Ward
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Salome Dürr
- Department of Clinical Research and Public Health, Veterinary Public Health Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Tariq Halasa
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
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Brookes VJ, Degeling C, van Eeden LM, Ward MP. What Is a Dingo? The Phenotypic Classification of Dingoes by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Residents in Northern Australia. Animals (Basel) 2020; 10:ani10071230. [PMID: 32698324 PMCID: PMC7401616 DOI: 10.3390/ani10071230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2020] [Revised: 07/07/2020] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary Dingoes are an Australian icon with cultural, as well as ecological, value, yet defining a dingo is complicated by hybridisation with domestic dogs. Northern Australia is a high-risk zone for the arrival of rabies, a disease which affects dogs (including dingoes) and people. In a rabies outbreak, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who live in this region would want dingoes protected. We visited the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland, in 2018–2019 and surveyed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents about how they define dingoes, using pictures from camera traps previously placed and operated in the area. We found that dingo definition was based on characteristics traditionally associated with the iconic dingo (medium to large-framed dogs, with a long nose, pointed ears, narrow abdomen, bushy tail, smooth tan coats, and white feet and tail tip) but hybrid features, such as curled tail or a lack of white points, were also acceptable features. Local definitions are important when designing and implementing management plans so that actions are supported by local communities, and our findings are a useful guide for identifying dingoes in the NPA so that, in the event of a rabies outbreak, locally valued dingoes could be identified and protected. Abstract Dingo classification and management is complicated by hybridisation with domestic dogs. Northern Australia is a relatively high-risk zone for a rabies incursion, and in the event of an incursion, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who reside in this region would prioritise the protection of dingoes. Therefore, the classification of dingoes in this context is important. Twelve pictures of canids with features associated with both dingoes and domestic dogs from camera traps in the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), northern Queensland, were shown to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rangers (n = 3), biosecurity officers (n = 2), environmental health workers (n = 2), and residents (n = 39) in the NPA. Nearly all pictures (10/12) were classified as dingo or domestic dog (none as hybrid) and two were inconclusive (no overall agreement). Dingoes were consistently identified as medium to large-framed dogs, with a long nose, pointed ears, narrow abdomen, a bushy or feathered tail, and smooth coats of a single base colour. Some hybrid features were acceptable, including sable coats, lack of white tail tip or feet, and curled tail. These findings are a preliminary guide for identifying canids in the NPA region for whom management might be controversial. Building on this approach via further consultation with residents is needed to inform rabies response policy. Our approach using locally acquired camera trap pictures could also be extended to other regions in which dingoes have value but their management is controversial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria J. Brookes
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden 2570, Australia;
- School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Faculty of Science, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga 2650, Australia
- Correspondence:
| | - Chris Degeling
- Australian Centre for Health Engagement, Evidence & Values, School of Health and Society, Faculty of the Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities, University of Wollongong, Wollongong 2252, Australia;
| | - Lily M. van Eeden
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camperdown 2006, Australia;
| | - Michael P. Ward
- Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camden 2570, Australia;
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Britton A. Reaching the zero by 30 dog-mediated human rabies goal. MICROBIOLOGY AUSTRALIA 2020. [DOI: 10.1071/ma20004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
It is unacceptable that as we advance into the 21st century rabies is still a threat to humans and animals alike. Given public health interventions that focus solely on disease prevention in humans have no effect on the reduction of infection in the reservoir hosts, the most effective way to combat human rabies infection is to control the disease transmission by mass vaccination of the animal source, e.g. dogs and wildlife1. This short communication focuses on the global strategic target to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 20302 in line with the Sustainable Development Goals by providing recent updates on World Health Organization (WHO) and OIE guidelines3–5 and recommendations as well as highlighting Australian rabies research activities to prevent an incursion of rabies into the country.
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Targeted pre-emptive rabies vaccination strategies in a susceptible domestic dog population with heterogeneous roaming patterns. Prev Vet Med 2019; 172:104774. [PMID: 31557685 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Revised: 09/12/2019] [Accepted: 09/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Australia is free of canine rabies, however northern regions - such as the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland - are at risk of an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands. Early detection and reactive vaccination is the current Australian policy to eradicate an incursion. Early detection in this region is challenging, so pre-emptive vaccination might be an effective strategy. The NPA dog population also has a heterogenous contact structure, with three roaming categories previously characterised, which could be exploited in targeted pre-emptive vaccination strategies for more efficient use of limited resources. To evaluate the effectiveness of a pre-emptive vaccination program, an agent-based rabies spread simulation model was used to simulate outbreaks with a range of pre-emptive vaccination coverages. Increasing proportions (10% increments) of the dog population randomly vaccinated were modelled, and at the most efficient random vaccination coverage we then explored 10 pre-emptive vaccination strategies targeting different dog roaming categories (whilst maintaining the same overall population level vaccination coverage). All pre-emptive vaccination strategies were simulated 2000 times without and with a 70% random reactive vaccination strategy, following rabies detection. All random pre-emptive vaccination coverages reduced outbreak size and duration compared to no pre-emptive vaccination. A 40% random coverage was most efficient. Targeted strategies that pre-emptively vaccinated proportionally more roaming dogs were more effective than a random 40% vaccination coverage and strategies that targeted non-roaming dogs. The pre-emptive vaccination strategies that targeted non-roaming dogs produced significantly larger and longer outbreaks. These results suggest that pre-emptive vaccination can reduce potential rabies outbreaks in this region and that such a strategy should not just focus on easily accessible dogs that do not roam often or at all. A cost-benefit analysis is required to determine whether the implementation of such pre-emptive vaccination strategies is also cost-effective, which is essential in the resource-poor communities of this region.
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