Compartmental architecture and dynamics of hematopoiesis

Dynamically adjusted cell fate decisions and resilience to mutant invasion during steady-state hematopoiesis revealed by an experimentally parameterized mathematical model

A major next step in hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) biology is to enhance our quantitative understanding of cellular and evolutionary dynamics involved in undisturbed hematopoiesis. Mathematical models have been and continue to be key in this respect, and are most powerful when parameterized experimentally and containing sufficient biological complexity. In this paper, we use data from label propagation experiments in mice to parameterize a mathematical model of hematopoiesis that includes homeostatic control mechanisms as well as clonal evolution. We find that nonlinear feedback control can drastically change the interpretation of kinetic estimates at homeostasis. This suggests that short-term HSC and multipotent progenitors can dynamically adjust to sustain themselves temporarily in the absence of long-term HSCs, even if they differentiate more often than they self-renew in undisturbed homeostasis. Additionally, the presence of feedback control in the model renders the system resilient against mutant invasion. Invasion barriers, however, can be overcome by a combination of age-related changes in stem cell differentiation and evolutionary niche construction dynamics based on a mutant-associated inflammatory environment. This helps us understand the evolution of e.g., TET2 or DNMT3A mutants, and how to potentially reduce mutant burden.

Stochastic journeys of cell progenies through compartments and the role of self-renewal, symmetric and asymmetric division

Division and differentiation events by which cell populations with specific functions are generated often take place as part of a developmental programme, which can be represented by a sequence of compartments. A compartment is the set of cells with common characteristics; sharing, for instance, a spatial location or a phenotype. Differentiation events are transitions from one compartment to the next. Cells may also die or divide. We consider three different types of division events: (i) where both daughter cells inherit the mother's phenotype (self-renewal), (ii) where only one of the daughters changes phenotype (asymmetric division), and (iii) where both daughters change phenotype (symmetric division). The self-renewal probability in each compartment determines whether the progeny of a single cell, moving through the sequence of compartments, is finite or grows without bound. We analyse the progeny stochastic dynamics with probability generating functions. In the case of self-renewal, by following one of the daughters after any division event, we may construct lifelines containing only one cell at any time. We analyse the number of divisions along such lines, and the compartment where lines terminate with a death event. Analysis and numerical simulations are applied to a five-compartment model of the gradual differentiation of hematopoietic stem cells and to a model of thymocyte development: from pre-double positive to single positive (SP) cells with a bifurcation to either SP4 or SP8 in the last compartment of the sequence.

The dark side of stemness - the role of hematopoietic stem cells in development of blood malignancies

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) produce all blood cells throughout the life of the organism. However, the high self-renewal and longevity of HSCs predispose them to accumulate mutations. The acquired mutations drive preleukemic clonal hematopoiesis, which is frequent among elderly people. The preleukemic state, although often asymptomatic, increases the risk of blood cancers. Nevertheless, the direct role of preleukemic HSCs is well-evidenced in adult myeloid leukemia (AML), while their contribution to other hematopoietic malignancies remains less understood. Here, we review the evidence supporting the role of preleukemic HSCs in different types of blood cancers, as well as present the alternative models of malignant evolution. Finally, we discuss the clinical importance of preleukemic HSCs in choosing the therapeutic strategies and provide the perspective on further studies on biology of preleukemic HSCs.

The "telomereless" erythrocytes and telomere-length dependent erythropoiesis

Approximately 25 trillion erythrocytes (red blood cells) circulate in the bloodstream of an adult human, surpassing the number of circulating leukocytes (white blood cells) by a factor of about 1000. Moreover, the erythrocyte turnover rate accounts for approximately 76% of the turnover rate of all circulating blood cells. This simple math shows that the hematopoietic system principally spends its telomere length-dependent replicative capacity on building and maintaining the erythrocyte blood pool. Erythropoiesis (red blood cell production) is thus the principal cause of telomere shortening with age in hematopoietic cells (HCs), a conclusion that holds significant implications for linking telomere length dynamics in HCs to health and lifespan of modern humans.

Stochastic model for cell population dynamics quantifies homeostasis in colonic crypts and its disruption in early tumorigenesis

The questions of how healthy colonic crypts maintain their size, and how homeostasis is disrupted by driver mutations, are central to understanding colorectal tumorigenesis. We propose a three-type stochastic branching process, which accounts for stem, transit-amplifying (TA) and fully differentiated (FD) cells, to model the dynamics of cell populations residing in colonic crypts. Our model is simple in its formulation, allowing us to estimate all but one of the model parameters from the literature. Fitting the single remaining parameter, we find that model results agree well with data from healthy human colonic crypts, capturing the considerable variance in population sizes observed experimentally. Importantly, our model predicts a steady-state population in healthy colonic crypts for relevant parameter values. We show that APC and KRAS mutations, the most significant early alterations leading to colorectal cancer, result in increased steady-state populations in mutated crypts, in agreement with experimental results. Finally, our model predicts a simple condition for unbounded growth of cells in a crypt, corresponding to colorectal malignancy. This is predicted to occur when the division rate of TA cells exceeds their differentiation rate, with implications for therapeutic cancer prevention strategies.

The structure of the hematopoietic system can explain chronic myeloid leukemia progression

Almost all cancer types share the hallmarks of cancer and a similar tumor formation: fueled by stochastic mutations in somatic cells. In case of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), this evolutionary process can be tracked from an asymptomatic long-lasting chronic phase to a final rapidly evolving blast phase. Somatic evolution in CML occurs in the context of healthy blood production, a hierarchical process of cell division; initiated by stem cells that self-renew and differentiate to produce mature blood cells. Here we introduce a general model of hierarchical cell division explaining the particular progression of CML as resulting from the structure of the hematopoietic system. Driver mutations confer a growth advantage to the cells carrying them, for instance, the BCR::ABL1 gene, which also acts as a marker for CML. We investigated the relation of the BCR::ABL1 mutation strength to the hematopoietic stem cell division rate by employing computer simulations and fitting the model parameters to the reported median duration for the chronic and accelerated phases. Our results demonstrate that driver mutations (additional to the BCR::ABL1 mutation) are necessary to explain CML progression if stem cells divide sufficiently slowly. We observed that the number of mutations accumulated by cells at the more differentiated levels of the hierarchy is not affected by driver mutations present in the stem cells. Our results shed light on somatic evolution in a hierarchical tissue and show that the clinical hallmarks of CML progression result from the structural characteristics of blood production.

Understanding Hematopoietic Stem Cell Dynamics—Insights from Mathematical Modelling

Purpose of review

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) drive blood-cell production (hematopoiesis). Out-competition of HSCs by malignant cells occurs in many hematologic malignancies like acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Through mathematical modelling, HSC dynamics and their impact on healthy blood cell formation can be studied, using mathematical analysis and computer simulations. We review important work within this field and discuss mathematical modelling as a tool for attaining biological insight.

Recent findings

Various mechanism-based models of HSC dynamics have been proposed in recent years. Key properties of such models agree with observations and medical knowledge and suggest relations between stem cell properties, e.g., rates of division and the temporal evolution of the HSC population. This has made it possible to study how HSC properties shape clinically relevant processes, including engraftment following an HSC transplantation and the response to different treatment.

Summary

Understanding how properties of HSCs affect hematopoiesis is important for efficient treatment of diseases. Mathematical modelling can contribute significantly to these efforts.

The bullwhip effect, T-cell telomeres, and SARS-CoV-2

Both myeloid cells, which contribute to innate immunity, and lymphoid cells, which dominate adaptive immunity, partake in defending against SARS-CoV-2. In response to the virus, the otherwise slow haematopoietic production supply chain quickly unleashes its preconfigured myeloid element, which largely resists a bullwhip-like effect. By contrast, the lymphoid element risks a bullwhip-like effect when it produces T cells and B cells that are specifically designed to clear the virus. As T-cell production is telomere-length dependent and telomeres shorten with age, older adults are at higher risk of a T-cell shortfall when contracting SARS-CoV-2 than are younger adults. A poorly calibrated adaptive immune response, stemming from a bullwhip-like effect, compounded by a T-cell deficit, might thus contribute to the propensity of people with inherently short T-cell telomeres to develop severe COVID-19. The immune systems of these individuals might also generate an inadequate T-cell response to anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.

Effect of dedifferentiation on noise propagation in cellular hierarchy

Many fast renewing tissues have a hierarchical structure. Tissue-specific stem cells are at the root of this cellular hierarchy, which give rive to a whole range of specialized cells via cellular differentiation. However, increasing evidence shows that the hierarchical structure can be broken due to cellular dedifferentiation in which cells at differentiated stages can revert to the stem cell stage. Dedifferentiation has significant impacts on many aspects of hierarchical tissues. Here we investigate the effect of dedifferentiation on noise propagation by developing a stochastic model composed of different cell types. The moment equations are derived, via which we systematically investigate how the noise in the cell number is changed by dedifferentiation. Our results suggest that dedifferentiation have different effects on the noises in the numbers of stem cells and nonstem cells. Specifically, the noise in the number of stem cells is significantly reduced by increasing dedifferentiation probability. Due to the dual effect of dedifferentiation on nonstem cells, however, more complex changes could happen to the noise in the number of nonstem cells by increasing dedifferentiation probability. Furthermore, it is found that even though dedifferentiation could turn part of the noise propagation process into a noise-amplifying step, it is very unlikely to turn the entire process into a noise-amplifying cascade.

Trade-off between reducing mutational accumulation and increasing commitment to differentiation determines tissue organization

Species-specific differences control cancer risk across orders of magnitude variation in body size and lifespan, e.g., by varying the copy numbers of tumor suppressor genes. It is unclear, however, how different tissues within an organism can control somatic evolution despite being subject to markedly different constraints, but sharing the same genome. Hierarchical differentiation, characteristic of self-renewing tissues, can restrain somatic evolution both by limiting divisional load, thereby reducing mutation accumulation, and by increasing cells' commitment to differentiation, which can "wash out" mutants. Here, we explore the organization of hierarchical tissues that have evolved to limit their lifetime incidence of cancer. Estimating the likelihood of cancer in the presence of mutations that enhance self-proliferation, we demonstrate that a trade-off exists between mutation accumulation and the strength of washing out. Our results explain differences in the organization of widely different hierarchical tissues, such as colon and blood.

Constrained optimization of divisional load in hierarchically organized tissues during homeostasis

It has been hypothesized that the structure of tissues and the hierarchy of differentiation from stem cell to terminally differentiated cell play a significant role in reducing the incidence of cancer in that tissue. One specific mechanism by which this risk can be reduced is by minimizing the number of divisions—and hence the mutational risk—that cells accumulate as they divide to maintain tissue homeostasis. Here, we investigate a mathematical model of cell division in a hierarchical tissue, calculating and minimizing the divisional load while constraining parameters such that homeostasis is maintained. We show that the minimal divisional load is achieved by binary division trees with progenitor cells incapable of self-renewal. Contrary to the protection hypothesis, we find that an increased stem cell turnover can lead to lower divisional load. Furthermore, we find that the optimal tissue structure depends on the time horizon of the duration of homeostasis, with faster stem cell division favoured in short-lived organisms and more progenitor compartments favoured in longer-lived organisms.

Multistage hematopoietic stem cell regulation in the mouse: A combined biological and mathematical approach

We have reconciled steady-state and stress hematopoiesis in a single mathematical model based on murine in vivo experiments and with a focus on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. A phenylhydrazine stress was first applied to mice. A reduced cell number in each progenitor compartment was evidenced during the next 7 days through a drastic level of differentiation without proliferation, followed by a huge proliferative response in all compartments including long-term hematopoietic stem cells, before a return to normal levels. Data analysis led to the addition to the 6-compartment model, of time-dependent regulation that depended indirectly on the compartment sizes. The resulting model was finely calibrated using a stochastic optimization algorithm and could reproduce biological data in silico when applied to different stress conditions (bleeding, chemotherapy, HSC depletion). In conclusion, our multi-step and time-dependent model of immature hematopoiesis provides new avenues to a better understanding of both normal and pathological hematopoiesis.

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We describe a new 6-compartment time-dependent regulated model of hematopoiesis

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Biological data under steady state and stress and cell dynamics were used

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Modeling is able to recapitulate effects from chemotherapy, bleeding, or HSC depletion

A systems pharmacology model for gene therapy in sickle cell disease

We developed a mathematical model for autologous stem cell therapy to cure sickle cell disease (SCD). Experimental therapies using this approach seek to engraft stem cells containing a curative gene. These stem cells are expected to produce a lifelong supply of red blood cells (RBCs) containing an anti‐sickling hemoglobin. This complex, multistep treatment is expensive, and there is limited patient data available from early clinical trials. Our objective was to quantify the impact of treatment parameters, such as initial stem cell dose, efficiency of lentiviral transduction, and degree of bone marrow preconditioning on engraftment efficiency, peripheral RBC numbers, and anti‐sickling hemoglobin levels over time. We used ordinary differential equations to model RBC production from progenitor cells in the bone marrow, and hemoglobin assembly from its constituent globin monomers. The model recapitulates observed RBC and hemoglobin levels in healthy and SCD phenotypes. Treatment simulations predict dynamics of stem cell engraftment and RBC containing the therapeutic gene product. Post‐treatment dynamics show an early phase of reconstitution due to short lived stem cells, followed by a sustained RBC production from stable engraftment of long‐term stem cells. This biphasic behavior was previously reported in the literature. Sensitivity analysis of the model quantified relationships between treatment parameters and efficacy. The initial dose of transduced stem cells, and the intensity of myeloablative bone marrow preconditioning are predicted to most positively impact long‐term outcomes. The quantitative systems pharmacology approach used here demonstrates the value of model‐assisted therapeutic design for gene therapies in SCD.

A frequent nonsense mutation in exon 1 across certain HLA-A and -B alleles in leukocytes of patients with acquired aplastic anemia

Leukocytes that lack HLA allelic expression are frequently detected in patients with acquired aplastic anemia (AA) who respond to immunosuppressive therapy (IST), although the exact mechanisms underlying the HLA loss and HLA allele repertoire likely to acquire loss-of-function mutations are unknown. We identified a common nonsense mutation at position 19 (c.19C>T, p.R7X) in exon 1 (Exon1mut) of different HLA-A and -B alleles in HLA-lacking granulocytes from AA patients. A droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) assay capable of detecting as few as 0.07% Exon1mut HLA alleles in total DNA revealed the mutation was present in 29% (101/353) of AA patients, with a median allele frequency of 0.42% (range, 0.071% to 21.3%). Exon1mut occurred in only 12 different HLA-A (n=4) and HLA-B (n=8) alleles, including B*40:02 (n=31) and A*02:06 (n=15), which correspond to 4 HLA supertypes (A02, A03, B07, and B44). The percentages of patients who possessed at least one of these 12 HLA alleles were significantly higher in the 353 AA patients (92%, P.

Large fluctuations in multi-scale modeling for rest hematopoiesis

Hematopoiesis is a biological phenomenon (process) of production of mature blood cells by cellular differentiation. It is based on amplification steps due to an interplay between renewal and differentiation in the successive cell types from stem cells to mature blood cells. We will study this mechanism with a stochastic point of view to explain unexpected fluctuations on the mature blood cell number, as surprisingly observed by biologists and medical doctors in a rest hematopoiesis. We consider three cell types: stem cells, progenitors and mature blood cells. Each cell type is characterized by its own dynamics parameters, the division rate and the renewal and differentiation probabilities at each division event. We model the global population dynamics by a three-dimensional stochastic decomposable branching process. We show that the amplification mechanism is given by the inverse of the small difference between the differentiation and renewal probabilities. Introducing a parameter K which scales simultaneously the size of the first component, the differentiation and renewal probabilities and the mature blood cell death rate, we describe the asymptotic behavior of the process for large K. We show that each cell type has its own size and time scales. Focusing on the third component, we prove that the mature blood cell population size, conveniently renormalized (in time and size), is expanded in an unusual way inducing large fluctuations. The proofs are based on a fine study of the different scales involved in the model and on the use of different convergence and average techniques in the proofs.

Multistage feedback-driven compartmental dynamics of hematopoiesis

Human hematopoiesis is surprisingly resilient to disruptions, providing suitable responses to severe bleeding, long-lasting immune activation, and even bone marrow transplants. Still, many blood disorders exist which push the system past its natural plasticity, resulting in abnormalities in the circulating blood. While proper treatment of such diseases can benefit from understanding the underlying cell dynamics, these are non-trivial to predict due to the hematopoietic system's hierarchical nature and complex feedback networks. To characterize the dynamics following different types of perturbations, we investigate a model representing hematopoiesis as a sequence of compartments covering all maturation stages-from stem to mature cells-where feedback regulates cell production to ongoing necessities. We find that a stable response to perturbations requires the simultaneous adaptation of cell differentiation and self-renewal rates, and show that under conditions of continuous disruption-as found in chronic hemolytic states-compartment cell numbers evolve to novel stable states.

CELLULAR FEEDBACK NETWORKS AND THEIR RESILIENCE AGAINST MUTATIONS

Many tissues undergo a steady turnover, where cell divisions are on average balanced with cell deaths. Cell fate decisions such as stem cell (SC) differentiations, proliferations, or differentiated cell (DC) deaths, may be controlled by cell populations through cell-to-cell signaling. Here, we examine a class of mathematical models of turnover in SC lineages to understand engineering design principles of control (feedback) loops, that may operate in such systems. By using ordinary differential equations that describe the co-dynamics of SCs and DCs, we study the effect of different types of mutations that interfere with feedback present within cellular networks. For instance, we find that mutants that do not participate in feedback are less dangerous in the sense that they will not rise from low numbers, whereas mutants that do not respond to feedback signals could rise and replace the wild-type population. Additionally, we asked if different feedback networks can have different degrees of resilience against such mutations. We found that all minimal networks, that is networks consisting of exactly one feedback loop that is sufficient for homeostatic stability of the wild-type population, are equally vulnerable. Mutants with a weakened/eliminated feedback parameter might expand from lower numbers and either enter unlimited growth or reach an equilibrium with an increased number of SCs and DCs. Therefore, from an evolutionary viewpoint, it appears advantageous to combine feedback loops, creating redundant feedback networks. Interestingly, from an engineering prospective, not all such redundant systems are equally resilient. For some of them, any mutation that weakens/eliminates one of the loops will lead to a population growth of SCs. For others, the population of SCs can actually shrink as a result of “cutting” one of the loops, thus slowing down further unwanted transformations.

Stochastic stem cell models with mutation: A comparison of asymmetric and symmetric divisions

In order to fulfill cell proliferation and differentiation through cellular hierarchy, stem cells can undergo either asymmetric or symmetric divisions. Recent studies pay special attention to the effect of different modes of stem cell division on the lifetime risk of cancer, and report that symmetric division is more beneficial to delay the onset of cancer. The fate uncertainty of symmetric division is considered to be the reason for the cancer-delaying effect. In this paper we compare asymmetric and symmetric divisions of stem cells via studying stochastic stem cell models with mutation. Specially, by using rigorous mathematical analysis we find that both the asymmetric and symmetric models show the same statistical average, but the symmetric model shows higher fluctuation than the asymmetric model. We further show that the difference between the two models would be more remarkable for lower mutation rates. Our work quantifies the uncertainty of cell division and highlights the significance of stochasticity for distinguishing between different modes of stem cell division.

Telomeres and COVID-19

The medical, public health, and scientific communities are grappling with monumental imperatives to contain COVID-19, develop effective vaccines, identify efficacious treatments for the infection and its complications, and find biomarkers that detect patients at risk of severe disease. The focus of this communication is on a potential biomarker, short telomere length (TL), that might serve to identify patients more likely to die from the SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of age. The common thread linking these patients is lymphopenia, which largely reflects a decline in the numbers of CD4/CD8 T cells but not B cells. These findings are consistent with data that lymphocyte TL dynamics impose a limit on T-cell proliferation. They suggest that T-cell lymphopoiesis might stall in individuals with short TL who are infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Replicative cellular age distributions in compartmentalized tissues

The cellular age distribution of hierarchically organized tissues can reveal important insights into the dynamics of cell differentiation and self-renewal and associated cancer risks. Here, we examine the effect of progenitor compartments with varying differentiation and self-renewal capacities on the resulting observable distributions of replicative cellular ages. We find that strongly amplifying progenitor compartments, i.e. compartments with high self-renewal capacities, substantially broaden the age distributions which become skewed towards younger cells with a long tail of few old cells. For several of these strongly amplifying compartments, the age distribution becomes virtually independent of the influx from the stem cell compartment. By contrast, if tissues are organized into many downstream compartments with low self-renewal capacity, the shape of the replicative cell distribution in more differentiated compartments is dominated by stem cell dynamics with little added variation. In the limiting case of a strict binary differentiation tree without self-renewal, the shape of the output distribution becomes indistinguishable from that of the input distribution. Our results suggest that a comparison of cellular age distributions between healthy and cancerous tissues may inform about dynamical changes within the hierarchical tissue structure, i.e. an acquired increased self-renewal capacity in certain tumours. Furthermore, we compare our theoretical results to telomere length distributions in granulocyte populations of 10 healthy individuals across different ages, highlighting that our theoretical expectations agree with experimental observations.

The invasion of de-differentiating cancer cells into hierarchical tissues

Many fast renewing tissues are characterized by a hierarchical cellular architecture, with tissue specific stem cells at the root of the cellular hierarchy, differentiating into a whole range of specialized cells. There is increasing evidence that tumors are structured in a very similar way, mirroring the hierarchical structure of the host tissue. In some tissues, differentiated cells can also revert to the stem cell phenotype, which increases the risk that mutant cells lead to long lasting clones in the tissue. However, it is unclear under which circumstances de-differentiating cells will invade a tissue. To address this, we developed mathematical models to investigate how de-differentiation is selected as an adaptive mechanism in the context of cellular hierarchies. We derive thresholds for which de-differentiation is expected to emerge, and it is shown that the selection of de-differentiation is a result of the combination of the properties of cellular hierarchy and de-differentiation patterns. Our results suggest that de-differentiation is most likely to be favored provided stem cells having the largest effective self-renewal rate. Moreover, jumpwise de-differentiation provides a wider range of favorable conditions than stepwise de-differentiation. Finally, the effect of de-differentiation on the redistribution of self-renewal and differentiation probabilities also greatly influences the selection for de-differentiation.

How can a tissue such as the blood system or the skin, which constantly produces a huge number of cells, avoids that errors accumulate in the cells over time? Such tissues are typically organized in cellular hierarchies, which induce a directional relation between different stages of cellular differentiation, minimizing the risk of retention of mutations. However, recent evidence also shows that some differentiated cells can de-differentiate into the stem cell phenotype. Why does de-differentiation arise in some tumors, but not in others? We developed a mathematical model to study the growth competition between de-differentiating mutant cell populations and non de-differentiating resident cell population. Our results suggest that the invasion of de-differentiation is jointly influenced by the cellular hierarchy (e.g. number of cell compartments, inherent cell division pattern) and the de-differentiation pattern, i.e. how exactly cells acquire their stem-cell like properties.

Stochastic modelling of tyrosine kinase inhibitor rotation therapy in chronic myeloid leukaemia

Background

Resistance towards targeted cancer treatments caused by single nucleotide variations is a major issue in many malignancies. Currently, there are a number of available drugs for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), which are overcome by different sets of mutations. The main aim of this study was to explore if it can be possible to exploit this and create a treatment protocol that outperforms each drug on its own.

Methods

We present a computer program to test different treatment protocols against CML, based on available resistance mutation growth data. The evolution of a relatively stable pool of cancer stem cells is modelled as a stochastic process, with the growth of cells expressing a tumourigenic protein (here, Abl1) and any emerging mutants determined principally by the drugs used in the therapy.

Results

There can be some benefit to Bosutinib-Ponatinib rotation therapy even if the mutation status is unknown, whereas Imatinib-Nilotinib rotation is unlikely to improve the outcomes. Furthermore, an interplay between growth inhibition and selection effects generates a non-linear relationship between drug doses and the risk of developing resistance.

Conclusions

Drug rotation therapy might be able to delay the onset of resistance in CML patients without costly ongoing observation of mutation status. Moreover, the simulations give credence to the suggestion that lower drug concentrations may achieve better results following major molecular response in CML.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5690-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A stochastic model of myeloid cell lineages in hematopoiesis and pathway mutations in acute myeloid leukemia

A model for hematopoiesis is presented that explicitly includes the erythrocyte, granulocyte, and thrombocyte lineages and their common precursors. A small number of stem cells proliferate and differentiate through different compartments to produce the vast number of blood cells needed every day. Growth factors regulate the proliferation of cells dependent on the current demand. We provide a steady state analysis of the model and rough parameter estimates. Furthermore, we extend the model to include mutations that alter the replicative capacity of cells and introduce differentiation blocks. With these mutations the model develops signs of acute myeloid leukemia.

Understanding Hematological Toxicities Using Mathematical Modeling

Balancing antitumor efficacy with toxicity is a significant challenge, and drug-induced myelosuppression is a common dose-limiting toxicity of cancer treatments. Mathematical modeling has proven to be a powerful ally in this field, scaling results from animal models to humans, and designing optimized treatment regimens. Here we outline existing mathematical approaches for studying bone marrow toxicity, identify gaps in current understanding, and make future recommendations to advance this vital field of safety research further.

Evolutionary dynamics of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria

Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is an acquired clonal blood disorder characterized by hemolysis and a high risk of thrombosis, that is due to a deficiency in several cell surface proteins that prevent complement activation. Its origin has been traced to a somatic mutation in the PIG-A gene within hematopoietic stem cells (HSC). However, to date the question of how this mutant clone expands in size to contribute significantly to hematopoiesis remains under debate. One hypothesis posits the existence of a selective advantage of PIG-A mutated cells due to an immune mediated attack on normal HSC, but the evidence supporting this hypothesis is inconclusive. An alternative (and simpler) explanation attributes clonal expansion to neutral drift, in which case selection neither favours nor inhibits expansion of PIG-A mutated HSC. Here we examine the implications of the neutral drift model by numerically evolving a Markov chain for the probabilities of all possible outcomes, and investigate the possible occurrence and evolution, within this framework, of multiple independently arising clones within the HSC pool. Predictions of the model agree well with the known incidence of the disease and average age at diagnosis. Notwithstanding the slight difference in clonal expansion rates between our results and those reported in the literature, our model results lead to a relative stability of clone size when averaging multiple cases, in accord with what has been observed in human trials. The probability of a patient harbouring a second clone in the HSC pool was found to be extremely low (~10-8). Thus our results suggest that in clinical cases of PNH where two independent clones of mutant cells are observed, only one of those is likely to have originated in the HSC pool.

The mechanisms leading to expansion of HSC with mutations in the PIG-A gene that leads to the PNH phenotype remains unclear. Data so far suggests there is no intrinsic fitness advantage of the mutant cells compared to normal cells. Assuming neutral drift within the HSC compartment, we determined from first principles the incidence of the disease in a population, the average clone size in patients, the probability of clonal extinction, the likelihood of several separate clones coexisting in the HSC pool, and the expected expansion rate of a mutant clone. Our results are similar to what is observed in clinical practice. We also find that in such a model the probability of multiple PNH clones arising independently in the HSC pool is exceptionally small. This suggests that in clinical cases where more than one distinct clone is observed, all but one of the clones are likely to have emerged in cells that are downstream of the HSC population. We propose that PNH is perhaps the first disease where neutral drift alone may be responsible for clonal expansion leading to a clinical problem.

Optimizing homeostatic cell renewal in hierarchical tissues

In order to maintain homeostasis, mature cells removed from the top compartment of hierarchical tissues have to be replenished by means of differentiation and self-renewal events happening in the more primitive compartments. As each cell division is associated with a risk of mutation, cell division patterns have to be optimized, in order to minimize or delay the risk of malignancy generation. Here we study this optimization problem, focusing on the role of division tree length, that is, the number of layers of cells activated in response to the loss of terminally differentiated cells, which is related to the balance between differentiation and self-renewal events in the compartments. Using both analytical methods and stochastic simulations in a metapopulation-style model, we find that shorter division trees are advantageous if the objective is to minimize the total number of one-hit mutants in the cell population. Longer division trees on the other hand minimize the accumulation of two-hit mutants, which is a more likely evolutionary goal given the key role played by tumor suppressor genes in cancer initiation. While division tree length is the most important property determining mutant accumulation, we also find that increasing the size of primitive compartments helps to delay two-hit mutant generation.

Cells in multicellular organisms are organized hierarchically. A stem cell gives rise to a chain of dividing and progressively differentiating offspring. At the end of this chain (called a lineage) are terminally differentiated cells that perform their function and undergo programmed cell death, to be replaced by new divisions of less differentiated cells. Here we are interested in the design of such lineages. At one extreme, one can imagine that a loss of terminally differentiated cells only results in divisions of cells in close hierarchical proximity to them, giving rise to very short division trees. On the other hand, it is possible that a long chain of increasingly primitive cells gets activated in response to the loss of differentiated cells. We expect that an important type of selection pressure acting upon tissue design is the minimization of mutations that happen in the course of everyday tissue maintenance (homeostasis). For example, tumor suppressor gene inactivation (two consecutive mutations) is an early rate-limiting step in many cancers. Using mathematical and computational methods, we find that the length of division trees is anti-correlated with the likelihood of double mutations, and lengthening the trees may provide an evolutionary advantage to the organism by delaying the onset of cancer.

Hierarchical tissue organization as a general mechanism to limit the accumulation of somatic mutations

How can tissues generate large numbers of cells, yet keep the divisional load (the number of divisions along cell lineages) low in order to curtail the accumulation of somatic mutations and reduce the risk of cancer? To answer the question we consider a general model of hierarchically organized self-renewing tissues and show that the lifetime divisional load of such a tissue is independent of the details of the cell differentiation processes, and depends only on two structural and two dynamical parameters. Our results demonstrate that a strict analytical relationship exists between two seemingly disparate characteristics of self-renewing tissues: divisional load and tissue organization. Most remarkably, we find that a sufficient number of progressively slower dividing cell types can be almost as efficient in minimizing the divisional load, as non-renewing tissues. We argue that one of the main functions of tissue-specific stem cells and differentiation hierarchies is the prevention of cancer.

To limit the accumulation of somatic mutations, renewing tissues must minimize the number of times each cell divides during differentiation. Here, the authors analytically derive the lower limit of lifetime divisional load of a tissue, show that hierarchically differentiating tissues can approach this limit, and that this depends on uneven divisional rates across the hierarchy.

About the discrete-continuous nature of a hematopoiesis model for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Blood of mammals is composed of a variety of cells suspended in a fluid medium known as plasma. Hematopoiesis is the biological process of birth, replication and differentiation of blood cells. Despite of being essentially a stochastic phenomenon followed by a huge number of discrete entities, blood formation has naturally an associated continuous dynamics, because the cellular populations can - on average - easily be described by (e.g.) differential equations. This deterministic dynamics by no means contemplates some important stochastic aspects related to abnormal hematopoiesis, that are especially significant for studying certain blood cancer deceases. For instance, by mere stochastic competition against the normal cells, leukemic cells sometimes do not reach the population thereshold needed to kill the organism. Of course, a pure discrete model able to follow the stochastic paths of billons of cells is computationally impossible. In order to avoid this difficulty, we seek a trade-off between the computationally feasible and the biologically realistic, deriving an equation able to size conveniently both the discrete and continuous parts of a model for hematopoiesis in terrestrial mammals, in the context of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia. Assuming the cancer is originated from a single stem cell inside of the bone marrow, we also deduce a theoretical formula for the probability of non-diagnosis as a function of the mammal average adult mass. In addition, this work cellular dynamics analysis may shed light on understanding Peto's paradox, which is shown here as an emergent property of the discrete-continuous nature of the system.

Mathematical modeling of erythrocyte chimerism informs genetic intervention strategies for sickle cell disease

Recent advances in gene therapy and genome-engineering technologies offer the opportunity to correct sickle cell disease (SCD), a heritable disorder caused by a point mutation in the β-globin gene. The developmental switch from fetal γ-globin to adult β-globin is governed in part by the transcription factor (TF) BCL11A. This TF has been proposed as a therapeutic target for reactivation of γ-globin and concomitant reduction of β-sickle globin. In this and other approaches, genetic alteration of a portion of the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) compartment leads to a mixture of sickling and corrected red blood cells (RBCs) in periphery. To reverse the sickling phenotype, a certain proportion of corrected RBCs is necessary; the degree of HSC alteration required to achieve a desired fraction of corrected RBCs remains unknown. To address this issue, we developed a mathematical model describing aging and survival of sickle-susceptible and normal RBCs; the former can have a selective survival advantage leading to their overrepresentation. We identified the level of bone marrow chimerism required for successful stem cell-based gene therapies in SCD. Our findings were further informed using an experimental mouse model, where we transplanted mixtures of Berkeley SCD and normal murine bone marrow cells to establish chimeric grafts in murine hosts. Our integrative theoretical and experimental approach identifies the target frequency of HSC alterations required for effective treatment of sickling syndromes in humans. Our work replaces episodic observations of such target frequencies with a mathematical modeling framework that covers a large and continuous spectrum of chimerism conditions. Am. J. Hematol. 91:931-937, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34⁺ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

The Cancer Stem Cell Fraction in Hierarchically Organized Tumors Can Be Estimated Using Mathematical Modeling and Patient-Specific Treatment Trajectories

Many tumors are hierarchically organized and driven by a subpopulation of tumor-initiating cells (TIC), or cancer stem cells. TICs are uniquely capable of recapitulating the tumor and are thought to be highly resistant to radio- and chemotherapy. Macroscopic patterns of tumor expansion before treatment and tumor regression during treatment are tied to the dynamics of TICs. Until now, the quantitative information about the fraction of TICs from macroscopic tumor burden trajectories could not be inferred. In this study, we generated a quantitative method based on a mathematical model that describes hierarchically organized tumor dynamics and patient-derived tumor burden information. The method identifies two characteristic equilibrium TIC regimes during expansion and regression. We show that tumor expansion and regression curves can be leveraged to infer estimates of the TIC fraction in individual patients at detection and after continued therapy. Furthermore, our method is parameter-free; it solely requires the knowledge of a patient's tumor burden over multiple time points to reveal microscopic properties of the malignancy. We demonstrate proof of concept in the case of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), wherein our model recapitulated the clinical history of the disease in two independent patient cohorts. On the basis of patient-specific treatment responses in CML, we predict that after one year of targeted treatment, the fraction of TICs increases 100-fold and continues to increase up to 1,000-fold after 5 years of treatment. Our novel framework may significantly influence the implementation of personalized treatment strategies and has the potential for rapid translation into the clinic. Cancer Res; 76(7); 1705-13. ©2016 AACR.

HEMODOSE: A Biodosimetry Tool Based on Multi-type Blood Cell Counts

Peripheral blood cell counts are important biomarkers of radiation exposure. In this work, a simplified compartmental modeling approach is applied to simulate the perturbation of the hematopoiesis system in humans after radiation exposure, and HemoDose software is reported to estimate individuals' absorbed doses based on multi-type blood cell counts. Testing with patient data in some historical accidents indicates that either single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, and platelet counts after exposure can be robust indicators of the absorbed doses. In addition, such correlation exists not only in the early time window (1 or 2 d) but also in the late phase (up to 4 wk) after exposure, when the four types of cell counts are combined for analysis. These demonstrate the capability of HemoDose as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system for personnel exposed to unintended high doses of radiation, especially in large-scale nuclear/radiological disaster scenarios involving mass casualties.

Stem cell regulation: Implications when differentiated cells regulate symmetric stem cell division

We use a mathematical model to show that if symmetric stem cell division is regulated by differentiated cells, then changes in the population dynamics of the differentiated cells can lead to changes in the population dynamics of the stem cells. More precisely, the relative fitness of the stem cells can be affected by modifying the death rate of the differentiated cells. This result is interesting because stem cells are less sensitive than differentiated cells to environmental factors, such as medical therapy. Our result implies that stem cells can be manipulated indirectly by medical treatments that target the differentiated cells.

Dynamics of leukemia stem-like cell extinction in acute promyelocytic leukemia

Many tumors are believed to be maintained by a small number of cancer stem-like cells, where cure is thought to require eradication of this cell population. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) before and during therapy with regard to disease initiation, progression, and therapeutic response. This investigation used a mathematical model of hematopoiesis and a dataset derived from the North American Intergroup Study INT0129. The known phenotypic constraints of APL could be explained by a combination of differentiation blockade of PML-RARα-positive cells and suppression of normal hematopoiesis. All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) neutralizes the differentiation block and decreases the proliferation rate of leukemic stem cells in vivo. Prolonged ATRA treatment after chemotherapy can cure patients with APL by eliminating the stem-like cell population over the course of approximately one year. To our knowledge, this study offers the first estimate of the average duration of therapy that is required to eliminate stem-like cancer cells from a human tumor, with the potential for the refinement of treatment strategies to better manage human malignancy.

The ecology of cancer from an evolutionary game theory perspective

The accumulation of somatic mutations, to which the cellular genome is permanently exposed, often leads to cancer. Analysis of any tumour shows that, besides the malignant cells, one finds other 'supporting' cells such as fibroblasts, immune cells of various types and even blood vessels. Together, these cells generate the microenvironment that enables the malignant cell population to grow and ultimately lead to disease. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of tumour growth and response to therapy is incomplete unless the interactions between the malignant cells and normal cells are investigated in the environment in which they take place. The complex interactions between cells in such an ecosystem result from the exchange of information in the form of cytokines- and adhesion-dependent interactions. Such processes impose costs and benefits to the participating cells that may be conveniently recast in the form of a game pay-off matrix. As a result, tumour progression and dynamics can be described in terms of evolutionary game theory (EGT), which provides a convenient framework in which to capture the frequency-dependent nature of ecosystem dynamics. Here, we provide a tutorial review of the central aspects of EGT, establishing a relation with the problem of cancer. Along the way, we also digress on fitness and of ways to compute it. Subsequently, we show how EGT can be applied to the study of the various manifestations and dynamics of multiple myeloma bone disease and its preceding condition known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. We translate the complex biochemical signals into costs and benefits of different cell types, thus defining a game pay-off matrix. Then we use the well-known properties of the EGT equations to reduce the number of core parameters that characterize disease evolution. Finally, we provide an interpretation of these core parameters in terms of what their function is in the ecosystem we are describing and generate predictions on the type and timing of interventions that can alter the natural history of these two conditions.

Robustness of differentiation cascades with symmetric stem cell division

Stem cells (SCs) perform the task of maintaining tissue homeostasis by both self-renewal and differentiation. While it has been argued that SCs divide asymmetrically, there is also evidence that SCs undergo symmetric division. Symmetric SC division has been speculated to be key for expanding cell numbers in development and regeneration after injury. However, it might lead to uncontrolled growth and malignancies such as cancer. In order to explore the role of symmetric SC division, we propose a mathematical model of the effect of symmetric SC division on the robustness of a population regulated by a serial differentiation cascade and we show that this may lead to extinction of such population. We examine how the extinction likelihood depends on defining characteristics of the population such as the number of intermediate cell compartments. We show that longer differentiation cascades are more prone to extinction than systems with less intermediate compartments. Furthermore, we have analysed the possibility of mixed symmetric and asymmetric cell division against invasions by mutant invaders in order to find optimal architecture. Our results show that more robust populations are those with unfrequent symmetric behaviour.

Tumor growth dynamics: insights into evolutionary processes

Identifying the types of event that drive tumor evolution and progression is crucial for understanding cancer. We suggest that the analysis of tumor growth dynamics can provide a window into tumor biology and evolution by connecting them with the types of genetic change that have occurred. Although fundamentally important, the documentation of tumor growth kinetics is more sparse in the literature than is the molecular analysis of cells. Here, we provide a historical summary of tumor growth patterns and argue that they can be classified into five basic categories. We then illustrate how those categories can provide insights into events that drive tumor progression, by discussing a particular evolutionary model as an example and encouraging such analysis in a more general setting.

Population dynamics of cancer cells with cell state conversions

Cancer stem cell (CSC) theory suggests a cell-lineage structure in tumor cells in which CSCs are capable of giving rise to the other non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs) but not vice versa. However, an alternative scenario of bidirectional interconversions between CSCs and NSCCs was proposed very recently. Here we present a general population model of cancer cells by integrating conventional cell divisions with direct conversions between different cell states, namely, not only can CSCs differentiate into NSCCs by asymmetric cell division, NSCCs can also dedifferentiate into CSCs by cell state conversion. Our theoretical model is validated when applying the model to recent experimental data. It is also found that the transient increase in CSCs proportion initiated from the purified NSCCs subpopulation cannot be well predicted by the conventional CSC model where the conversion from NSCCs to CSCs is forbidden, implying that the cell state conversion is required especially for the transient dynamics. The theoretical analysis also gives the condition such that our general model can be equivalently reduced into a simple Markov chain with only cell state transitions keeping the same cell proportion dynamics.

A deterministic model for the occurrence and dynamics of multiple mutations in hierarchically organized tissues

Cancers are rarely caused by single mutations, but often develop as a result of the combined effects of multiple mutations. For most cells, the number of possible cell divisions is limited because of various biological constraints, such as progressive telomere shortening, cell senescence cascades or a hierarchically organized tissue structure. Thus, the risk of accumulating cells carrying multiple mutations is low. Nonetheless, many diseases are based on the accumulation of such multiple mutations. We model a general, hierarchically organized tissue by a multi-compartment approach, allowing any number of mutations within a cell. We derive closed solutions for the deterministic clonal dynamics and the reproductive capacity of single clones. Our results hold for the average dynamics in a hierarchical tissue characterized by an arbitrary combination of proliferation parameters. We show that hierarchically organized tissues strongly suppress cells carrying multiple mutations and derive closed solutions for the expected size and diversity of clonal populations founded by a single mutant within the hierarchy. We discuss the example of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in detail and find good agreement between our predicted results and recently observed clonal diversities in patients. This result can contribute to the explanation of very diverse mutation profiles observed by whole genome sequencing of many different cancers.

Dynamical modelling of haematopoiesis: an integrated view over the system in homeostasis and under perturbation

A very high number of different types of blood cells must be generated daily through a process called haematopoiesis in order to meet the physiological requirements of the organism. All blood cells originate from a population of relatively few haematopoietic stem cells residing in the bone marrow, which give rise to specific progenitors through different lineages. Steady-state dynamics are governed by cell division and commitment rates as well as by population sizes, while feedback components guarantee the restoration of steady-state conditions. In this study, all parameters governing these processes were estimated in a computational model to describe the haematopoietic hierarchy in adult mice. The model consisted of ordinary differential equations and included negative feedback regulation. A combination of literature data, a novel divide et impera approach for steady-state calculations and stochastic optimization allowed one to reduce possible configurations of the system. The model was able to recapitulate the fundamental steady-state features of haematopoiesis and simulate the re-establishment of steady-state conditions after haemorrhage and bone marrow transplantation. This computational approach to the haematopoietic system is novel and provides insight into the dynamics and the nature of possible solutions, with potential applications in both fundamental and clinical research.

Stem cell biology is population biology: differentiation of hematopoietic multipotent progenitors to common lymphoid and myeloid progenitors

The hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) system is a demand control system, with the demand coming from the organism, since the products of the common myeloid and lymphoid progenitor (CMP, CLP respectively) cells are essential for activity and defense against disease. We show how ideas from population biology (combining population dynamics and evolutionary considerations) can illuminate the feedback control of the HSC system by the fully differentiated products, which has recently been verified experimentally. We develop models for the penultimate differentiation of HSC Multipotent Progenitors (MPPs) into CLP and CMP and introduce two concepts from population biology into stem cell biology. The first concept is the Multipotent Progenitor Commitment Response (MPCR) which is the probability that a multipotent progenitor cell follows a CLP route rather than a CMP route. The second concept is the link between the MPCR and a measure of Darwinian fitness associated with organismal performance and the levels of differentiated lymphoid and myeloid cells. We show that many MPCRs are consistent with homeostasis, but that they will lead to different dynamics of cells and signals following a wound or injury and thus have different consequences for Darwinian fitness. We show how coupling considerations of life history to dynamics of the HSC system and its products allows one to compute the selective pressures on cellular processes. We discuss ways that this framework can be used and extended.

An evolutionary explanation for the presence of cancer nonstem cells in neoplasms

Contrary to conventional views that assume all cells in a neoplasm can propagate the tumor, the cancer stem cell hypothesis posits that only a fraction of the cells (the cancer stem cells) can act as tumor-propagating cells, while most of the tumor is composed of cells with limited replication potential. Here, we offer an evolutionary approach to this controversy. We used several evolutionary, computational models to investigate cancer cell dynamics and conditions consistent with the stem cell hypothesis. Our models predict that if selection acts at the cell level, neoplasms should be primarily comprised of cancer stem cells, in contrast to experimental data indicating that neoplasms contain large fractions of cancer nonstem cells. We explore several solutions explaining the paradoxical existence of cancer nonstem cells in neoplasms, including the possibility that selection acts at the level of multicellular proliferative units.

A mathematical model for selective differentiation of neural progenitor cells on micropatterned polymer substrates

The biological hypothesis that the astrocyte-secreted cytokine, interleukin-6 (IL6), stimulates differentiation of adult rat hippocampal progenitor cells (AHPCs) is considered from a mathematical perspective. The proposed mathematical model includes two different mechanisms for stimulation and is based on mass-action kinetics. Both biological mechanisms involve sequential binding, with one pathway solely utilizing surface receptors while the other pathway also involves soluble receptors. Choosing biologically-reasonable values for parameters, simulations of the mathematical model show good agreement with experimental results. A global sensitivity analysis is also conducted to determine both the most influential and non-influential parameters on cellular differentiation, providing additional insights into the biological mechanisms.

A simple mathematical model based on the cancer stem cell hypothesis suggests kinetic commonalities in solid tumor growth

Background

The Cancer Stem Cell (CSC) hypothesis has gained credibility within the cancer research community. According to this hypothesis, a small subpopulation of cells within cancerous tissues exhibits stem-cell-like characteristics and is responsible for the maintenance and proliferation of cancer.

Methodologies/Principal Findings

We present a simple compartmental pseudo-chemical mathematical model for tumor growth, based on the CSC hypothesis, and derived using a “chemical reaction” approach. We defined three cell subpopulations: CSCs, transit progenitor cells, and differentiated cells. Each event related to cell division, differentiation, or death is then modeled as a chemical reaction. The resulting set of ordinary differential equations was numerically integrated to describe the time evolution of each cell subpopulation and the overall tumor growth. The parameter space was explored to identify combinations of parameter values that produce biologically feasible and consistent scenarios.

Conclusions/Significance

Certain kinetic relationships apparently must be satisfied to sustain solid tumor growth and to maintain an approximate constant fraction of CSCs in the tumor lower than 0.01 (as experimentally observed): (a) the rate of symmetrical and asymmetrical CSC renewal must be in the same order of magnitude; (b) the intrinsic rate of renewal and differentiation of progenitor cells must be half an order of magnitude higher than the corresponding intrinsic rates for cancer stem cells; (c) the rates of apoptosis of the CSC, transit amplifying progenitor (P) cells, and terminally differentiated (D) cells must be progressively higher by approximately one order of magnitude. Simulation results were consistent with reports that have suggested that encouraging CSC differentiation could be an effective therapeutic strategy for fighting cancer in addition to selective killing or inhibition of symmetric division of CSCs.

Dynamics of mutant cells in hierarchical organized tissues

Most tissues in multicellular organisms are maintained by continuous cell renewal processes. However, high turnover of many cells implies a large number of error-prone cell divisions. Hierarchical organized tissue structures with stem cell driven cell differentiation provide one way to prevent the accumulation of mutations, because only few stem cells are long lived. We investigate the deterministic dynamics of cells in such a hierarchical multi compartment model, where each compartment represents a certain stage of cell differentiation. The dynamics of the interacting system is described by ordinary differential equations coupled across compartments. We present analytical solutions for these equations, calculate the corresponding extinction times and compare our results to individual based stochastic simulations. Our general compartment structure can be applied to different tissues, as for example hematopoiesis, the epidermis, or colonic crypts. The solutions provide a description of the average time development of stem cell and non stem cell driven mutants and can be used to illustrate general and specific features of the dynamics of mutant cells in such hierarchically structured populations. We illustrate one possible application of this approach by discussing the origin and dynamics of PIG-A mutant clones that are found in the bloodstream of virtually every healthy adult human. From this it is apparent, that not only the occurrence of a mutant but also the compartment of origin is of importance.

We investigate the average stem cell driven dynamics of cell counts in an abstract multi compartment model. Within this framework one can represent different tissue structures, as for example hematopoiesis, the skin or the colonic crypt. Our analysis is based on an individual cell model in which cells can differentiate, reproduce or die. We give closed solutions to the corresponding system of coupled differential equations, that describe the average dynamics of all cell types. There are three cases of interest: (i) Mutations at the stem cell level, (ii) Mutations in downstream compartments associated with more mature, non stem cell types, (iii) Mutations in downstream compartments with cells acquiring stem cell like properties. The average dynamics shows for (i) and (iii) an increase of mutants towards an equilibrium, in case (ii) the average mutant cell count goes through a maximum, but mutants die out in the long run. We calculate the corresponding extinction times for every compartment. We discuss applications to hematopoietic diseases such as, PIG-A mutant cells or the classic oncogene BCR-ABL. Although the abstract model is a simplified sketch of cell differentiation, it is capable of describing many aspects of a wide variety of such tissues and associated diseases.