Phylogenetically clustered extinction risks do not substantially prune the Tree of Life

Phylogeny-based conservation priorities for Australian freshwater fishes

Conservation scientists are increasingly interested in the question of how extinction prunes the tree of life. This question is particularly important for Australian freshwater fishes because there is a broad mix of ∼300 old and young species, many of which are severely threatened. We used a complete species-level phylogeny of Australian freshwater fishes to examine phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction risk. We computed the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity by simulating extinction across the tree under a pattern weighted based on International Union for Conservation of Nature extinction risk category and compared this loss to projected diversity loss under a random null model of extinction. Finally, we calculated EDGE (evolutionary distinctiveness, global endangerment) scores for 251 freshwater and 60 brackish species and compiled a list of high-priority species for conservation actions based on their extinction risk and evolutionary uniqueness. Extinction risk was not random and was clustered in both diversity cradles (recently diversifying, species-rich clades, such as Galaxiidae and Percichthyidae) and museums (older, species-poor groups, such as freshwater chondrichthyans). Clustered extinction made little difference to the average expected loss of phylogenetic diversity. However, the upper bound of loss was higher under a selective model of extinction, particularly when the counts of species lost were low. Thus, the loss of highly threatened species would diminish the tree of life more than a null model of randomly distributed extinction.  High priority species included both widely recognized and charismatic ones, such as the Queensland lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri), river sharks, and freshwater sawfishes, and lesser-known species that receive less public attention, including the salamanderfish (Lepidogalaxias salamandroides), cave gudgeons, and many galaxiids, rainbowfishes, and pygmy perches.

Widespread homogenization of plant communities in the Anthropocene

Native biodiversity decline and non-native species spread are major features of the Anthropocene. Both processes can drive biotic homogenization by reducing trait and phylogenetic differences in species assemblages between regions, thus diminishing the regional distinctiveness of biotas and likely have negative impacts on key ecosystem functions. However, a global assessment of this phenomenon is lacking. Here, using a dataset of >200,000 plant species, we demonstrate widespread and temporal decreases in species and phylogenetic turnover across grain sizes and spatial extents. The extent of homogenization within major biomes is pronounced and is overwhelmingly explained by non-native species naturalizations. Asia and North America are major sources of non-native species; however, the species they export tend to be phylogenetically close to recipient floras. Australia, the Pacific and Europe, in contrast, contribute fewer species to the global pool of non-natives, but represent a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity. The timeline of most naturalisations coincides with widespread human migration within the last ~500 years, and demonstrates the profound influence humans exert on regional biotas beyond changes in species richness.

Human-driven movements and extinctions of species have made plant communities across biomes more homogenous. Here the authors quantify plant vascular species and phylogenetic homogenization across the globe, finding that non-native species naturalisations have been a major driver.

The decline of mammal functional and evolutionary diversity worldwide

Biodiversity is declining worldwide. Because species interact with one another and with their environment, losses of particular organisms alter the function of ecosystems. Our understanding of the global rates and specific causes of functional decline remains limited, however. Species losses also reduce the cumulative amount of extant evolutionary history ("phylogenetic diversity" [PD]) in communities-our biodiversity heritage. Here we provide a global assessment of how each known anthropogenic threat is driving declines in functional diversity (FD) and PD, using terrestrial mammals as a case study. We find that habitat loss and harvest (e.g., legal hunting, poaching, snaring) are by far the biggest drivers of ongoing FD and PD loss. Declines in FD in high-biodiversity countries, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America, are greater than would be expected if species losses were random with respect to ecological function. Among functional guilds, herbivores are disproportionately likely to be declining from harvest, with important implications for plant communities and nutrient cycling. Frugivores are particularly likely to be declining from both harvest and habitat loss, with potential ramifications for seed dispersal and even forest carbon storage. Globally, phylogenetically unique species do not have an elevated risk of decline, but in areas such as Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, both habitat loss and harvest are biased toward phylogenetically unique species. Enhanced conservation efforts, including a renewed focus on harvest sustainability, are urgently needed to prevent the deterioration of ecosystem function, especially in the South American and equatorial Asian tropics.

Reconciling the concepts and measures of diversity, rarity and originality in ecology and evolution

The concept of biological diversity, or biodiversity, is at the core of evolutionary and ecological studies. Many indices of biodiversity have been developed in the last four decades, with species being one of the central units of these indices. However, evolutionary and ecological studies need a precise description of species' characteristics to best quantify inter-species diversity, as species are not equivalent and exchangeable. One of the first concepts characterizing species in biodiversity studies was abundance-based rarity. Abundance-based rarity was then complemented by trait- and phylo-based rarity, called species' trait-based and phylogenetic originalities, respectively. Originality, which is a property of an individual species, represents a species' contribution to the overall diversity of a reference set of species. Originality can also be defined as the rarity of a species' characteristics such as the state of a functional trait, which is often assumed to be represented by the position of the species on a phylogenetic tree. We review and compare various approaches for measuring originality, rarity and diversity and demonstrate that (i) even if attempts to bridge these concepts do exist, only a few ecological and evolutionary studies have tried to combine them all in the past two decades; (ii) phylo- and trait-based diversity indices can be written as a function of species rarity and originality measures in several ways; and (iii) there is a need for the joint use of these three types of indices to understand community assembly processes and species' roles in ecosystem functioning in order to protect biodiversity efficiently.

Species characteristics affect local extinctions

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Human activities threaten thousands of species with extinction. However, it remains difficult to predict extinction risk for many vulnerable species. Species traits, species characteristics such as rarity or habitat use, and phylogenetic patterns are associated with responses to anthropogenic environmental change and may help predict likelihood of extinction.

METHODS

We used historical botanical data from Kalamazoo County, Michigan, USA, to examine whether species traits (growth form, life history, nitrogen-fixation, photosynthetic pathway), species characteristics (community association, species origin, range edge, habitat specialization, rarity), or phylogenetic relatedness explain local species loss at the county level.

KEY RESULTS

Across Kalamazoo County, prairie species, species at the edge of their native range, regionally rare species, and habitat specialists were most likely to become locally extinct. Prairie species experienced the highest local extinction rates of any habitat type, and among prairie species, regionally rare and specialist species were most vulnerable to loss. We found no evidence for a phylogenetic pattern in plant extinctions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrates the value of historical datasets for understanding and potentially predicting biodiversity loss. Not surprisingly, rare, specialist species occupying threatened habitats are most at risk of local extinction. As a result, identifying mechanisms to conserve or restore rare or declining species and preventing further habitat destruction may be the most effective strategies for reducing future extinction.

Mammal diversity will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis

The incipient sixth mass extinction that started in the Late Pleistocene has already erased over 300 mammal species and, with them, more than 2.5 billion y of unique evolutionary history. At the global scale, this lost phylogenetic diversity (PD) can only be restored with time as lineages evolve and create new evolutionary history. Given the increasing rate of extinctions however, can mammals evolve fast enough to recover their lost PD on a human time scale? We use a birth-death tree framework to show that even if extinction rates slow to preanthropogenic background levels, recovery of lost PD will likely take millions of years. These findings emphasize the severity of the potential sixth mass extinction and the need to avoid the loss of unique evolutionary history now.

Linking speciation to extinction: Diversification raises contemporary extinction risk in amphibians

Many of the traits associated with elevated rates of speciation, including niche specialization and having small and isolated populations, are similarly linked with an elevated risk of extinction. This suggests that rapidly speciating lineages may also be more extinction prone. Empirical tests of a speciation-extinction correlation are rare because assessing paleontological extinction rates is difficult. However, the modern biodiversity crisis allows us to observe patterns of extinction in real time, and if this hypothesis is true then we would expect young clades that have recently diversified to have high contemporary extinction risk. Here, we examine evolutionary patterns of modern extinction risk across over 300 genera within one of the most threatened vertebrate classes, the Amphibia. Consistent with predictions, rapidly diversifying amphibian clades also had a greater share of threatened species. Curiously, this pattern is not reflected in other tetrapod classes and may reflect a greater propensity to speciate through peripheral isolation in amphibians, which is partly supported by a negative correlation between diversification rate and mean geographic range size. This clustered threat in rapidly diversifying amphibian genera means that protecting a small number of species can achieve large gains in preserving amphibian phylogenetic diversity. Nonindependence between speciation and extinction rates has many consequences for patterns of biodiversity and how we may choose to conserve it.

Integrating biogeography, threat and evolutionary data to explore extinction crisis in the taxonomic group of cycads

Will the ongoing extinction crisis cause a severe loss of evolutionary information accumulated over millions of years on the tree of life? This question has been largely explored, particularly for vertebrates and angiosperms. However, no equivalent effort has been devoted to gymnosperms. Here, we address this question focusing on cycads, the gymnosperm group exhibiting the highest proportion of threatened species in the plant kingdom. We assembled the first complete phylogeny of cycads and assessed how species loss under three scenarios would impact the cycad tree of life. These scenarios are as follows: (1) All top 50% of evolutionarily distinct (ED) species are lost; (2) all threatened species are lost; and (3) only all threatened species in each IUCN category are lost. Finally, we analyzed the biogeographical pattern of cycad diversity hotspots and tested for gaps in the current global conservation network. First, we showed that threatened species are not significantly clustered on the cycad tree of life. Second, we showed that the loss of all vulnerable or endangered species does not depart significantly from random loss. In contrast, the loss of all top 50% ED, all threatened or all critically endangered species, would result in a greater loss of PD (Phylogenetic Diversity) than expected. To inform conservation decisions, we defined five hotpots of diversity, and depending on the diversity metric used, these hotspots are located in Southern Africa, Australia, Indo‐Pacific, and Mexico and all are found within protected areas. We conclude that the phylogenetic diversity accumulated over millions of years in the cycad tree of life would not survive the current extinction crisis. As such, prioritizing efforts based on ED and concentrating efforts on critically endangered species particularly in southern Africa, Australia, Indo‐Pacific, and Mexico are required to safeguarding the evolutionary diversity in the cycad tree of life.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides.

The future of evolutionary diversity in reef corals

One-third of the world's reef-building corals are facing heightened extinction risk from climate change and other anthropogenic impacts. Previous studies have shown that such threats are not distributed randomly across the coral tree of life, and future extinctions have the potential to disproportionately reduce the phylogenetic diversity of this group on a global scale. However, the impact of such losses on a regional scale remains poorly known. In this study, we use phylogenetic metrics in conjunction with geographical distributions of living reef coral species to model how extinctions are likely to affect evolutionary diversity across different ecoregions. Based on two measures-phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic species variability-we highlight regions with the largest losses of evolutionary diversity and hence of potential conservation interest. Notably, the projected loss of evolutionary diversity is relatively low in the most species-rich areas such as the Coral Triangle, while many regions with fewer species stand to lose much larger shares of their diversity. We also suggest that for complex ecosystems like coral reefs it is important to consider changes in phylogenetic species variability; areas with disproportionate declines in this measure should be of concern even if phylogenetic diversity is not as impacted. These findings underscore the importance of integrating evolutionary history into conservation planning for safeguarding the future diversity of coral reefs.

Losing history: how extinctions prune features from the tree of life

Biodiversity provides many valuable services to humanity; however, rapid expansion of the human population has placed increasing pressure on natural systems, and it has been suggested that we may be entering a sixth mass extinction. There is an urgent need, therefore, to prioritize conservation efforts if we are to maintain the provisioning of such service in the future. Phylogenetic diversity (PD), the summed branch lengths that connect species on the tree-of-life, might provide a valuable metric for conservation prioritization because it has been argued to capture feature diversity. Frequently, PD is estimated in millions of years, and therefore implicitly assumes an evolutionary model in which features diverge gradually over time. Here, I explore the expected loss of feature diversity when this assumption is violated. If evolution tends to slow down over time, as might be the case following adaptive radiations, losses of feature diversity might be relatively small. However, if evolution occurs in rapid bursts, following a punctuated model, impacts of extinctions might be much greater. PD captures many important properties, but if we use it as a proxy for feature diversity, we first need to ensure that we have the correct evolutionary model.

Fossils, phylogenies, and the challenge of preserving evolutionary history in the face of anthropogenic extinctions

Anthropogenic impacts are endangering many long-lived species and lineages, possibly leading to a disproportionate loss of existing evolutionary history (EH) in the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the loss of EH during major extinctions in the geological past, and thus we do not know whether human impacts are pruning the tree of life in a manner that is unique in the history of life. A major impediment to comparing the loss of EH during past and current extinctions is the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from paleontological data versus molecular phylogenies. In the former case the age of a taxon is its entire stratigraphic range, regardless of how many daughter taxa it may have produced; for the latter it is the time to the most recent common ancestor shared with another extant taxon. To explore this issue, we use simulations to understand how the loss of EH is manifested in the two data types. We also present empirical analyses of the marine bivalve clade Pectinidae (scallops) during a major Plio-Pleistocene extinction in California that involved a preferential loss of younger species. Overall, our results show that the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from the stratigraphic record versus molecular phylogenies does not preclude comparisons of age selectivities of past and present extinctions. Such comparisons not only provide fundamental insights into the nature of the extinction process but should also help improve evolutionarily informed models of conservation prioritization.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly.

Biodiversity and evolutionary history: useful extensions of the PD phylogenetic diversity assessment framework

Evolutionary biology is a core discipline in biodiversity science. Evolutionary history or phylogeny provides one natural measure of biodiversity through the popular phylogenetic diversity (PD) measure. The evolutionary model underlying PD means that it can be interpreted as quantifying the relative feature diversity of sets of species. Quantifying feature diversity measures possible future uses and benefits or option values. Interpretation of PD as counting-up features is the basis for an emerging broad family of PD calculations, of use to both biodiversity researchers and decision makers. Many of these calculations extend conventional species-level indices to the features level. Useful PD calculations include PD complementarity and endemism, Hill and Valley numbers incorporating abundance, and PD dissimilarities. A flexible analysis framework is provided by expected PD calculations, applied to either probabilities of extinction or presence-absence. Practical extensions include phylogenetic risk analysis and measures of distinctiveness and endemism. These support the integration of phylogenetic diversity into biodiversity conservation and monitoring programs.

A Global Trend towards the Loss of Evolutionarily Unique Species in Mangrove Ecosystems

The mangrove biome stands out as a distinct forest type at the interface between terrestrial, estuarine, and near-shore marine ecosystems. However, mangrove species are increasingly threatened and experiencing range contraction across the globe that requires urgent conservation action. Here, we assess the spatial distribution of mangrove species richness and evolutionary diversity, and evaluate potential predictors of global declines and risk of extinction. We found that human pressure, measured as the number of different uses associated with mangroves, correlated strongly, but negatively, with extinction probability, whereas species ages were the best predictor of global decline, explaining 15% of variation in extinction risk. Although the majority of mangrove species are categorised by the IUCN as Least Concern, our finding that the more threatened species also tend to be those that are more evolutionarily unique is of concern because their extinction would result in a greater loss of phylogenetic diversity. Finally, we identified biogeographic regions that are relatively species-poor but rich in evolutionary history, and suggest these regions deserve greater conservation priority. Our study provides phylogenetic information that is important for developing a unified management plan for mangrove ecosystems worldwide.

Revisiting the impacts of non-random extinction on the tree-of-life

The tree-of-life represents the diversity of living organisms. Species extinction and the concomitant loss of branches from the tree-of-life is therefore a major conservation concern. There is increasing evidence indicating that extinction is phylogenetically non-random, such that if one species is vulnerable to extinction so too are its close relatives. However, the impact of non-random extinctions on the tree-of-life has been a matter of recent debate. Here, we combine simulations with empirical data on extinction risk in mammals. We demonstrate that phylogenetically clustered extinction leads to a disproportionate loss of branches from the tree-of-life, but that the loss of their summed lengths is indistinguishable from random extinction. We argue that under a speciational model of evolution, the number of branches lost might be of equal or greater consequences than the loss of summed branch lengths. We therefore suggest that the impact of non-random extinction on the tree-of-life may have been underestimated.

Anthropogenic extinction threats and future loss of evolutionary history in reef corals

Extinction always results in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD), but phylogenetically selective extinctions have long been thought to disproportionately reduce PD. Recent simulations show that tree shapes also play an important role in determining the magnitude of PD loss, potentially offsetting the effects of clustered extinctions. While patterns of PD loss under different extinction scenarios are becoming well characterized in model phylogenies, analyses of real clades that often have unbalanced tree shapes remain scarce, particularly for marine organisms. Here, we use a fossil-calibrated phylogeny of all living scleractinian reef corals in conjunction with IUCN data on extinction vulnerabilities to quantify how loss of species in different threat categories will affect the PD of this group. Our analyses reveal that predicted PD loss in corals varies substantially among different threats, with extinctions due to bleaching and disease having the largest negative effects on PD. In general, more phylogenetically clustered extinctions lead to larger losses of PD in corals, but there are notable exceptions; extinction of rare corals from distantly-related old and unique lineages can also result in substantial PD loss. Thus our results show that loss of PD in reef corals is dependent on both tree shape and the nature of extinction threats.

Climate change impacts on the tree of life: changes in phylogenetic diversity illustrated for acropora corals

The possible loss of whole branches from the tree of life is a dramatic, but under-studied, biological implication of climate change. The tree of life represents an evolutionary heritage providing both present and future benefits to humanity, often in unanticipated ways. Losses in this evolutionary (evo) life-support system represent losses in "evosystem" services, and are quantified using the phylogenetic diversity (PD) measure. High species-level biodiversity losses may or may not correspond to high PD losses. If climate change impacts are clumped on the phylogeny, then loss of deeper phylogenetic branches can mean disproportionately large PD loss for a given degree of species loss. Over time, successive species extinctions within a clade each may imply only a moderate loss of PD, until the last species within that clade goes extinct, and PD drops precipitously. Emerging methods of "phylogenetic risk analysis" address such phylogenetic tipping points by adjusting conservation priorities to better reflect risk of such worst-case losses. We have further developed and explored this approach for one of the most threatened taxonomic groups, corals. Based on a phylogenetic tree for the corals genus Acropora, we identify cases where worst-case PD losses may be avoided by designing risk-averse conservation priorities. We also propose spatial heterogeneity measures changes to assess possible changes in the geographic distribution of corals PD.

Threat diversity will erode mammalian phylogenetic diversity in the near future

To reduce the accelerating rate of phylogenetic diversity loss, many studies have searched for mechanisms that could explain why certain species are at risk, whereas others are not. In particular, it has been demonstrated that species might be affected by both extrinsic threat factors as well as intrinsic biological traits that could render a species more sensitive to extinction; here, we focus on extrinsic factors. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature developed a new classification of threat types, including climate change, urbanization, pollution, agriculture and aquaculture, and harvesting/hunting. We have used this new classification to analyze two main factors that could explain the expected future loss of mammalian phylogenetic diversity: 1. differences in the type of threats that affect mammals and 2. differences in the number of major threats that accumulate for a single species. Our results showed that Cetartiodactyla, Diprotodontia, Monotremata, Perissodactyla, Primates, and Proboscidea could lose a high proportion of their current phylogenetic diversity in the coming decades. In contrast, Chiroptera, Didelphimorphia, and Rodentia could lose less phylogenetic diversity than expected if extinctions were random. Some mammalian clades, including Marsupiala, Chiroptera, and a subclade of Primates, are affected by particular threat types, most likely due solely to their geographic locations and associations with particular habitats. However, regardless of the geography, habitat, and taxon considered, it is not the threat type, but the threat diversity that determines the extinction risk for species and clades. Thus, some mammals might be randomly located in areas subjected to a large diversity of threats; they might also accumulate detrimental traits that render them sensitive to different threats, which is a characteristic that could be associated with large body size. Any action reducing threat diversity is expected to have a significant impact on future mammalian phylogeny.

Deep-time phylogenetic clustering of extinctions in an evolutionarily dynamic clade (Early Jurassic ammonites)

Conservation biologists and palaeontologists are increasingly investigating the phylogenetic distribution of extinctions and its evolutionary consequences. However, the dearth of palaeontological studies on that subject and the lack of methodological consensus hamper our understanding of that major evolutionary phenomenon. Here we address this issue by (i) reviewing the approaches used to quantify the phylogenetic selectivity of extinctions and extinction risks; (ii) investigating with a high-resolution dataset whether extinctions and survivals were phylogenetically clustered among early Pliensbachian (Early Jurassic) ammonites; (iii) exploring the phylogenetic and temporal maintenance of this signal. We found that ammonite extinctions were significantly clumped phylogenetically, a pattern that prevailed throughout the 6.6 Myr-long early Pliensbachian interval. Such a phylogenetic conservatism did not alter – or may even have promoted – the evolutionary success of this major cephalopod clade. However, the comparison of phylogenetic autocorrelation among studies remains problematic because the notion of phylogenetic conservatism is scale-dependent and the intensity of the signal is sensitive to temporal resolution. We recommend a combined use of Moran's I, Pearson's ϕ and Fritz and Purvis' D statistics because they highlight different facets of the phylogenetic pattern of extinctions and/or survivals.

Threatened reef corals of the world

A substantial proportion of the world's living species, including one-third of the reef-building corals, are threatened with extinction and in pressing need of conservation action. In order to reduce biodiversity loss, it is important to consider species' contribution to evolutionary diversity along with their risk of extinction for the purpose of setting conservation priorities. Here I reconstruct the most comprehensive tree of life for the order Scleractinia (1,293 species) that includes all 837 living reef species, and employ a composite measure of phylogenetic distinctiveness and extinction risk to identify the most endangered lineages that would not be given top priority on the basis of risk alone. The preservation of these lineages, not just the threatened species, is vital for safeguarding evolutionary diversity. Tests for phylogeny-associated patterns show that corals facing elevated extinction risk are not clustered on the tree, but species that are susceptible, resistant or resilient to impacts such as bleaching and disease tend to be close relatives. Intensification of these threats or extirpation of the endangered lineages could therefore result in disproportionate pruning of the coral tree of life.