Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Analysis of economic and educational spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

The United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has been credited with saving millions lives and helping to change the trajectory of the global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. This study assesses whether PEPFAR has had impacts beyond health by examining changes in five economic and educational outcomes in PEPFAR countries: the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rate; the share of girls and share of boys, respectively, who are out of school; and female and male employment rates. We constructed a panel data set for 157 low- and middle-income countries between 1990 and 2018 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of PEPFAR. Our PEPFAR group included 90 countries that had received PEPFAR support over the period. Our comparison group included 67 low- and middle-income countries that had not received any PEPFAR support or had received minimal PEPFAR support (<$1M or <$.05 per capita) between 2004 and 2018. We used differences in differences (DID) methods to estimate the program impacts on the five economic and educational outcome measures. This study finds that PEPFAR is associated with increases in the GDP per capita growth rate and educational outcomes. In some models, we find that PEPFAR is associated with reductions in male and female employment. However, these effects appear to be due to trends in the comparison group countries rather than programmatic impacts of PEPFAR. We show that these impacts are most pronounced in COP countries receiving the highest levels of PEPFAR investment.

Estimating the welfare gains from anti-retroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Since the start of the century, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced large gains in life expectancy and average consumption levels. Around the same time, an unprecedented international effort has taken place to combat HIV/AIDS mortality with the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) across many of the hardest hit countries. In this paper, I estimate the impact of ART on average welfare over time in 42 countries using the equivalent consumption approach. I decompose the change in welfare to isolate the relative contribution of ART-driven improvements in life expectancy and consumption. The results indicate that ART has accounted for around 12% of total welfare growth in SSA between 2000 and 2017. In those countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, this figure rises to around 40%. Moreover, the estimates suggest that welfare in some of the worst-hit countries would have declined over time without the ART expansion.

Intergenerational spillover effects of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review and future directions for research

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence individuals who do not receive the intervention but who are connected in some way to the person who does. Relatively little is known, however, about the size and scope of, what we term, spillover effects of ART. We explored intergenerational spillover effects of ART in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and identified several directions for future research.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review between March and April 2022. We systematically searched PubMed, PsycINFO, EconLit, OTseeker, AIDSInfo, Web of Science, CINHAL, Google Scholar and African Index Medicus. We analysed the distribution of included studies over time and summarised their findings. We examined the intergenerational impact of ART provision to working-age adults living with HIV on children ('downward' spillover effects) and older adults ('upward' spillover effects). We categorised types of intergenerational spillover effects according to broad themes which emerged from our analysis of included studies.

FINDINGS

We identified 26 studies published between 2005 and 2022 with 16 studies assessing spillover effects from adults to children (downward), and 1 study explicitly assessing spillover effects from working-age adults to older adults (upward). The remaining studies did not fully specify the direction of spillover effects. Most spillover effects of ART to household and family members were beneficial and included improvements in wealth, labour market outcomes, health outcomes and health services utilisation, schooling, and household composition. Both children and older adults benefited from ART availability among adults. Detrimental spillover effects were only reported in three studies and included financial and opportunity costs associated with health services utilisation and food insecurity in the first year after ART.

CONCLUSIONS

ART may lead to substantial spillover effects across generations and sectors in SSA. Further research is needed to capitalise on positive spillover effects while mitigating potential negative spillover effects. The returns to investments in large-scale health interventions such as ART may be underestimated without considering these societal benefits.

Estimated economic burden of genital herpes and HIV attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 infections in 90 low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Economic losses due to herpes simplex infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unknown. We estimated economic and quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes in 2019, in 90 LMICs, and from 2020 to 2030 in 45 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa. We additionally estimated economic losses due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated genital herpes-related spending on treatment, wage losses due to absenteeism, and reductions in quality of life, for individuals aged 15 to 49 years, living with genital herpes. Had HSV-2 had contributed to the transmission of HIV, we estimated the share of antiretroviral treatment costs and HIV-related wage losses in 2019 that can be attributed to incident and prevalent HSV-2 infections in 2018. For the former, we used estimates of HSV-2 incidence and prevalence from the global burden of disease (GBD) study. For the latter, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs), using the classic (Levin's) epidemiological formula for polytomous exposures, with relative risks (RRs) reported in literature. To extend estimates from 2020 to 2030, we modeled the transmission of HSV-2 in 45 African countries using a deterministic compartmental mathematical model, structured by age, sex, and sexual activity, which was fitted to seroprevalence gathered from a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. In the 90 LMICs, genital herpes contributed to US$813.5 million in treatment and productivity losses in 2019 (range: US$674.4 to US$952.2 million). Given observed care-seeking and absenteeism, losses are in the range of US$29.0 billion (US$25.6 billion to US$34.5 billion). Quality-of-life losses in the amount of 61.7 million quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are also possible (50.4 million to 74.2 million). The mean annual cost of treatment and wage losses per infection is US$183.00 (95% CI: US$153.60 to US$212.55); the mean annual cost of quality-of-life losses is US$343.27 (95% CI: 272.41 to 414.14). If HSV-2 has fueled the transmission of HIV, then seroprevalent HSV-2 cases in 2018 can account for 33.2% of the incident HIV infections in 2019, with an associated antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost of US$186.3 million (range: US$163.6 to US$209.5 million) and 28.6% of HIV-related wage losses (US$21.9 million; range: US$19.2 to US$27.4 million). In the WHO Africa region, the 3.9 million seroprevalent genital herpes cases from 2020 to 2030 contributed to US$700.2 million in treatment and productivity losses. Additionally, quality-of-life losses in the range of 88 million to 871 million QALYs are also possible. If HSV-2 has contributed to the transmission of HIV, then in 2020, the PAF of HIV due to prevalent HSV-2 will be 32.8% (95% CI: 26.7% to 29.9%) and due to incident infections will be 4.2% (95% CI: 2.6% to 3.4%). The PAF due to prevalent infections will decline to 31.0% by 2030 and incident infections to 3.6%. Though we have accounted for the uncertainty in the epidemiological and economic parameter values via the sensitivity analysis, our estimates still undervalue losses due to limiting to the 15- to 49-year-old population.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic losses due to genital herpes in LMICs can be large, especially when considering the lifelong nature of the disease. Quality-of-life losses outweigh spending on treatment and reductions in productivity. If HSV-2 has contributed to the spread of HIV in LMICs, then nearly one third of antiretroviral costs and HIV-related wage losses can be attributed to HSV-2. Given the magnitude of the combined losses, a vaccine against HSV-2 must be a global priority.

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning

Background

In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world’s population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions.

Methods

A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs.

Results

Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested.

Conclusions

Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

Assessing the costs and efficiency of HIV testing and treatment services in rural Malawi: implications for future "test and start" strategies

BACKGROUND

Reaching the 90-90-90 targets requires efficient resource use to deliver HIV testing and treatment services. We investigated the costs and efficiency of HIV services in relation to HIV testing yield in rural Karonga District, Malawi.

METHODS

Costs of HIV services were measured over 12 months to September 2017 in five health facilities, drawing on recognised health costing principles. Financial and economic costs were collected in Malawi Kwacha and United States Dollars (US$). Costs were calculated using a provider perspective to estimate average annual costs (2017 US$) per HIV testing episode, per HIV-positive case diagnosed, and per patient-year on antiretroviral therapy (ART), by facility. Costs were assessed in relation to scale of operation and facility-level annual HIV positivity rate. A one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken to understand how staffing levels and the HIV positivity rate affected HIV testing costs.

RESULTS

HIV testing episodes per day and per full-time equivalent HIV health worker averaged 3.3 (range 2.0 to 5.7). The HIV positivity rate averaged 2.4% (range 1.9 to 3.7%). The average cost per testing episode was US$2.85 (range US$1.95 to US$8.55), and the average cost per HIV diagnosis was US$116.35 (range US$77.42 to US$234.11), with the highest costs found in facilities with the lowest daily number of tests and lowest HIV yield respectively. The mean facility-level cost per patient-year on ART was approximately US$100 (range US$90.67 to US$115.42). ART drugs were the largest cost component averaging 71% (range 55 to 76%). The cost per patient-year of viral load tests averaged US$4.50 (range US$0.52 to US$7.00) with cost variation reflecting differences in the tests to ART patient ratio across facilities.

CONCLUSION

Greater efficiencies in HIV service delivery are possible in Karonga through increasing daily testing episodes among existing health workers or allocating health workers to tasks in addition to testing. Costs per diagnosis will increase as yields decline, and therefore, encouraging targeted testing strategies that increase yield will be more efficient. Given the contribution of drug costs to per patient-year treatment costs, it is critical to preserve the life-span of first-line ART regimens, underlining the need for continuing adherence support and regular viral load monitoring.

Using information on ART costs and benefits to mobilise resources - comparing different methods and contexts

Sustaining HIV and AIDS responses depends on a mix of donor, government and private funders. Their decisions about investing in HIV treatment may be informed by various types of economic evaluations, which may be more or less useful for different contexts. This paper benchmarks methods against each other. Epidemiological and demographic impacts of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 1996-2015 were quantified using country- specific spectrum files. The study compared societal benefits of ART using the full income (FI) methodology with "conventional" benefit, utility and effectiveness estimates produced with the same data. The FI estimates suggested $3.50 in benefits per dollar spent on ART globally, 2.6 times larger than productivity-related measures of benefits, of $1.33 in benefits per dollar. Higher benefit-cost ratios are mainly because FI reflects value of life beyond what people produce at work and in non-working age groups, and allocates the future stream of benefits in the year that death is avoided. ART costs were 0.78 times per capita GDP per quality-adjusted life-years gained globally. FI benefit-cost ratios are considerably higher in upper- and lower-middle-income countries than in low- or high-income countries. Productivity-based benefits also exceeded costs in all but one region but had smaller ratios and different regional patterns. Per capita GDP per quality-adjusted life-years ratios were below 1.2 for all regions and country income bands, suggesting cost effectiveness. The fact that FI returns of ART are higher than productivity returns, helps to quantify developmental benefits of interventions that directly extend life and its quality, arguably the objective of development. They provide an important argument to increase budget allocations to health sectors for ART scale-up, and not just reallocate existing health resources. Benchmarking FI returns against cost per quality- adjusted life-years may allow comparison to other "cost effective" health interventions. However, caution should be taken in extrapolations between measures, because they produce different rankings across country categories.

Life expectancy and disparities in survival among HIV-infected people receiving antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study in Kathmandu, Nepal

Introduction

The advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically slowed down the progression of HIV. This study assesses the disparities in survival, life expectancy and determinants of survival among HIV-infected people receiving ART.

Methods

Using data from one of Nepal’s largest population-based retrospective cohort studies (in Kathmandu, Nepal), we followed a total of 3191 HIV-infected people aged 15 years and older who received ART over the period of 2004–2015. We created abridged life tables with age-specific survival rates and life expectancy, stratified by sex, ethnicity, CD4 cell counts and the WHO-classified clinical stage at initiation of ART.

Results

HIV-infected people who initiated ART with a CD4 cell count of >200 cells/cm³ at 15 years had 27.4 (22.3 to 32.6) years of additional life. People at WHO-classified clinical stage I and 15 years of age who initiated ART had 23.1 (16.6 to 29.7) years of additional life. Life expectancy increased alongside the CD4 cell count and decreased as clinical stages progressed upward. The study cohort contributed 8484.8 person years, with an overall survival rate of 3.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 3.0 to 3.7).

Conclusions

There are disparities in survival among HIV-infected people in Nepal. The survival payback of ART is proven; however, late diagnosis or the health system as a whole will affect the control and treatment of the illness. This study offers evidence of the benefits of enrolling early in care in general and ART in particular.

Work and home productivity of people living with HIV in Zambia and South Africa

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Objective:

To compare number of days lost to illness or accessing healthcare for HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals working in the informal and formal sectors in South Africa and Zambia.

Design:

As part of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, data on adults aged 18–44 years were gathered from cross-sectional surveys of random general population samples in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. Data on the number of productive days lost in the last 3 months, laboratory-confirmed HIV status, labour force status, age, ethnicity, education, and recreational drug use was collected.

Methods:

Differences in productive days lost between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals (’excess productive days lost’) were estimated with negative binomial models, and results disaggregated for HIV-positive individuals after various durations on antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Results:

From samples of 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 18 004 respondents in South Africa, HIV-positive individuals lost more productive days to illness than HIV-negative individuals in both countries. HIV-positive individuals in Zambia lost 0.74 excess productive days [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48–1.01; P < 0.001] to illness over a 3-month period. HIV-positive in South Africa lost 0.13 excess days (95% CI 0.04–0.23; P = 0.007). In Zambia, those on ART for less than 1 year lost most days, and those not on ART lost fewest days. In South Africa, results disaggregated by treatment duration were not statistically significant.

Conclusion:

There is a loss of work and home productivity associated with HIV, but it is lower than existing estimates for HIV-positive formal sector workers. The findings support policy makers in building an accurate investment case for HIV interventions.

The economic returns of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat

BACKGROUND

In 2016, countries agreed on a Fast-Track strategy to "end the AIDS epidemic by 2030". The treatment and prevention components of the Fast-Track strategy aim to markedly reduce new HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths and HIV-related discrimination. This study assesses the economic returns of this ambitious strategy.

METHODS

We estimated the incremental costs, benefits and economic returns of the Fast-Track scenario in low- and middle-income countries, compared to a counterfactual defined as maintaining coverage of HIV-related services at 2015 levels. The benefits are calculated using the full-income approach, which values both the changes in income and in mortality, and the productivity approach.

FINDINGS

The incremental costs of the Fast-Track scenario over the constant scenario for 2017-2030 represent US$86 billion or US$13.69 per capita. The full-income valuation of the incremental benefits of the decrease in mortality amounts to US$88.14 per capita, representing 6.44 times the resources invested for all countries. These returns on investment vary by region, with the largest return in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Eastern and Southern Africa. Returns using the productivity approach are smaller but ranked similarly across regions.

INTERPRETATION

In all regions, the economic and social value of the additional life-years saved by the Fast-Track approach exceeds its incremental costs, implying that this strategy for ending the AIDS epidemic is a sound economic investment.

Understanding the dynamic interactions driving the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda

Background

Despite increasing recognition that health-systems constraints are the fundamental barrier to attaining anti-retroviral therapy (ART) scale-up targets in Sub-Saharan Africa, current discourses are dominated by a focus on financial sustainability. Utilizing the health system dynamics framework, this study aimed to explore the interactions in health system components and their influence on the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda.

Methods

This study entailed qualitative organizational case-studies within a two-phased mixed-methods sequential explanatory research design. In Phase One, a survey of 195 health facilities across Uganda which commenced ART services between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. In Phase Two, six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination involving i) In-depth interviews (n = 44) ii) and semi-structured interviews (n = 35). Qualitative data was analyzed by coding and thematic analysis. Descriptive statistics were managed in STATA (v 13).

Results

Five dynamic interactions in ART program sustainability drivers were identified; i) Failure to update basic ART program records contributed to chronic ART medicines stock-outs ii) Health workforce shortages and escalating patient volumes prompted adaptations in ART service delivery models iii) Broader governance issues manifested in poor road networks undermined ART medicines supply chains iv) Sustained financing for ART programs was influenced by external donors v) The values associated with the ownership-type of a health facility affected ART service delivery and coverage.

Conclusion

The sustainability of ART programs at the facility-level in Uganda is a function of a complex interaction in elements of the health system and must be understood beyond sustaining international funding for ART scale-up.

Frontloading HIV financing maximizes the achievable impact of HIV prevention

INTRODUCTION

Due to the nature of funding, national planners and international donors typically balance budgets over short time periods when designing HIV programmes (˜5-year funding cycles). We aim to explicitly quantify the cost of short-term funding arrangements on the success of future HIV prevention programmes.

METHODS

Using mathematical models of HIV transmission in Kenya, we compare the impact of optimized combination prevention strategies under different constraints on investment over time. Each scenario has the same total budget for the 30-year intervention period but the pattern of spending over time is allowed to vary. We look at the impact of programmes with decreasing, increasing or constant spending across 5-year funding cycles for a 30-year period. Interventions are optimized within each funding cycle such that strategies take a short-term view of the epidemic. We compare these with two strategies with no spending pattern constraints: one with static intervention choices and another flexible strategy with interventions changed in year ten.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

For the same total 30-year budget, greatest impact is achieved if larger initial prevention spending is offset by later treatment savings which leads to accumulating benefits in reduced infections. The impact under funding cycle constraints is determined by the extent to which greater initial spending is permitted. Short-term funding constraints and funds held back to later years may reduce impact by up to 18% relative to the flexible long-term strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring that funding arrangements are in place to support long-term prevention strategies will make spending most impactful. Greater prevention spending now will bring considerable returns through reductions in new infections, greater population health and reductions in the burden on health services in the future.

Innovative financing for HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub–Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long–term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/AIDS. As donor assistance for health remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co–finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non–health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review to identify innovative financing instruments used for (1) domestic HIV/AIDS financing in sub–Saharan Africa (2) international health financing and (3) financing in non–health sectors. We analyzed peer–reviewed and grey literature published between 2002 and 2014. We examined the nature and volume of funds mobilized with innovative financing, then in consultation with leading experts, identified instruments that held potential for financing the HIV response.

Results

Our analysis revealed three innovative financing instruments in use: Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund (a tax/levy–based instrument), Botswana’s National HIV/AIDS Prevention Support (BNAPS) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Buy–Down (a debt conversion instrument), and Côte d'Ivoire's Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement (a debt conversion instrument). Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund generated US$ 52.7 million between 2008 and 2011, Botswana’s IBRD Buy–Down generated US$ 20 million, and Côte d’Ivoire’s Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement generated US$ 27 million, at least half of which was to be invested in HIV/AIDS programs. Four additional categories of innovative financing instruments met our criteria for future use: (1) remittances and diaspora bonds (2) social and development impact bonds (3) sovereign wealth funds (4) risk and credit guarantees.

Conclusion

A limited number of innovative financing instruments contributed a very modest share of funding toward domestic HIV/AIDS programs. Several innovative financing instruments successfully applied in other sectors could be used to augment domestic financing toward HIV/AIDS programmes.

Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

Alternative financing mechanisms for ART programs in health facilities in Uganda: a mixed-methods approach

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is heavily dependent on global health initiatives (GHIs) for funding antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. There are indications that global investments for ART scale-up are flattening. It is unclear what new funding channels can bridge the funding gap for ART service delivery. Many previous studies have focused on domestic government spending and international funding especially from GHIs. The objective of this study was to identify the funding strategies adopted by health facilities in Uganda to sustain ART programs between 2004 and 2014 and to explore variations in financing mechanisms by ownership of health facility.

Methods

A mixed-methods approach was employed. A survey of health facilities (N = 195) across Uganda which commenced ART delivery between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. Six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination. Semi-structured interviews (N = 18) were conducted with ART Clinic managers (three from each of the six health facilities). Statistical analyses were performed in STATA (Version 12.0) and qualitative data were analyzed by coding and thematic analysis.

Results

Multiple funding sources for ART programs were common with 140 (72%) of the health facilities indicating at least two concurrent grants supporting ART service delivery between 2009 and 2014. Private philanthropic aid emerged as an important source of supplemental funding for ART service delivery. ART financing strategies were differentiated by ownership of health facility. Private not-for-profit providers were more externally-focused (multiple grants, philanthropic aid). For-profit providers were more client-oriented (fee-for-service, insurance schemes). Public facilities sought additional funding streams not dissimilar to other health facility ownership-types.

Conclusion

Over the 10-year study period, health facilities in Uganda diversified funding sources for ART service delivery. The identified alternative funding mechanisms could reduce dependence on GHI funding and increase local ownership of HIV programs. Further research evaluating the potential contribution of the identified alternative financing mechanisms in bridging the global HIV funding gap is recommended.

Life expectancy after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Access to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has decreased mortality in HIV-positive people. We aimed to estimate the expected additional years of life in HIV-positive Thai people after starting cART through the National AIDS Program (NAP), administered by the Thai National Health Security Office (NHSO).

METHODS

The NHSO database collects characteristics of all Thai HIV-infected patients through the National AIDS Program, including linkage with the National Death Registry for vital status. This study included patients aged ≥15 years at cART initiation between 2008 and 2014. The abridged life table method was used to construct life tables stratified by sex and baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count. Life expectancy was defined as the additional years of life from age at starting cART.

RESULTS

201,688 eligible patients were included in analyses, contributing 618,837 person-years of follow-up. Median CD4⁺ T-cell count was 109 cells/mm³ and median age 37 years. The overall life expectancy after cART initiation at age 20 was 25.4 (95% CI, 25.3, 25.6) years and 20.6 (95% CI, 20.5, 20.7) at age 35 years. Life expectancy at baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count ≥350 cells/mm³ was 51.9 (95% CI, 51.0, 52.9) years for age 20 years and 43.2 (95% CI, 42.4, 44.1) years for age 35 years, close to life expectancy in the general Thai population.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing life expectancy with higher baseline CD4⁺ T-cell counts supports the guideline recommendations to start cART irrespective of CD4⁺ T-cell count. These results are beneficial to forecast the treatment cost and develop health policies for people living with HIV in Thailand and Asia.

PEPFAR Funding Associated With An Increase In Employment Among Males in Ten Sub-Saharan African Countries

The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has provided billions of US tax dollars to expand HIV treatment, care, and prevention programs in sub-Saharan Africa. This investment has generated significant health gains, but much less is known about PEPFAR's population-level economic effects. We used a difference-in-differences approach to compare employment trends between ten countries that received a large amount of PEPFAR funding (focus countries) and eleven countries that received little or no funding (control countries). We found that PEPFAR was associated with a 13 percent differential increase in employment among males in focus countries, compared to control countries. However, we observed no change in employment among females. In addition, we found that increasing PEPFAR per capita funding by $100 was associated with a 9.1-percentage-point increase in employment among males. This rise in employment generates economic benefits equal to half of PEPFAR's cost. These findings suggest that PEPFAR's economic impact should be taken into account when making aid allocation decisions.

Changing HIV treatment eligibility under health system constraints in sub-Saharan Africa: investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness

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Objective:

We estimated the investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness of different policy options for scaling-up prevention and treatment of HIV in the 10 countries that currently comprise 80% of all people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe).

Design:

We adapted the established STDSIM model to capture the health system dynamics: demand-side and supply-side constraints in the delivery of antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Methods:

We compared different scenarios of supply-side (i.e. health system capacity) and demand-side (i.e. health seeking behavior) constraints, and determined the impact of changing guidelines to ART eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count within these constraints.

Results:

Continuing current scale-up would require US$178 billion by 2050. Changing guidelines to ART at any CD4⁺ cell count is cost-effective under all constraints tested in the model, especially in demand-side constrained health systems because earlier initiation prevents loss-to-follow-up of patients not yet eligible. Changing guidelines under current demand-side constraints would avert 1.8 million infections at US$208 per life-year saved.

Conclusion:

Treatment eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count would be cost-effective, even under health system constraints. Excessive loss-to-follow-up and mortality in patients not eligible for treatment can be avoided by changing guidelines in demand-side constrained systems. The financial obligation for sustaining the AIDS response in sub-Saharan Africa over the next 35 years is substantial and requires strong, long-term commitment of policy-makers and donors to continue to allocate substantial parts of their budgets.

A scoping review of cost benefit analysis in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health: What we know and what are the gaps?

Growing evidence suggests that early life investments in health are associated with improved human capital and economic outcomes. Various recent global studies have simulated the expected economic returns from alternative packages of interventions in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH). However, very little is known about the comparability of estimates of the economic returns of RMNCH interventions across studies in low and middle income countries. Our study aims to fill this gap. We performed a comprehensive scoping review of the recent literature (2000-2013) on the economic returns (i.e. benefit-cost ratios) of RMNCH-related interventions, conducted in low and middle income countries. A total of 36 studies were identified. They were read in full and information was abstracted on both the estimates of benefit-cost ratios, the methodological approach and assumptions used. The estimated economic returns fluctuated considerably across settings as the associated costs of disease patterns, social behaviours and health systems varied. Yet, greater sources of variation stemmed from differences in methodology. The observed methodological inconsistencies limit the accuracy and comparability of the estimated returns across various contexts. The reviewed studies suggest that the benefit-cost ratios are favourable in the majority of cases, providing further support to a growing body of economic literature that suggests investments early in life, such as those interventions related to RMNCH, are good investments. Beyond advocacy purposes, for the reviewed literature to be used by policymakers to inform their decisions on investments, a consistent methodological approach should be adopted.

Cost-Effectiveness and Quality of Care of a Comprehensive ART Program in Malawi

The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a holistic, comprehensive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment Program in Malawi.Comprehensive cost data for the year 2010 have been collected at 30 facilities from the public network of health centers providing antiretroviral treatment (ART) throughout the country; two of these facilities were operated by the Disease Relief through Excellent and Advanced Means (DREAM) program.The outcomes analysis was carried out over five years comparing two cohorts of patients on treatment: 1) 2387 patients who started ART in the two DREAM centers during 2008, 2) patients who started ART in Malawi in the same year under the Ministry of Health program.Assuming the 2010 cost as constant over the five years the cost-effective analysis was undertaken from a health sector and national perspective; a sensitivity analysis included two hypothesis of ART impact on patients' income.The total cost per patient per year (PPPY) was $314.5 for the DREAM protocol and $188.8 for the other Malawi ART sites, with 737 disability adjusted life years (DALY) saved among the DREAM program patients compared with the others. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio was $1640 per DALY saved; it ranged between $896-1268 for national and health sector perspective respectively. The cost per DALY saved remained under $2154 that is the AFR-E-WHO regional gross domestic product per capita threshold for a program to be considered very cost-effective.HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome comprehensive treatment program that joins ART with laboratory monitoring, treatment adherence reinforcing and Malnutrition control can be very cost-effective in the sub-Saharan African setting.

Survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model-based analysis

Objective

In Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV-positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme.

Methods

We used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC-International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era-specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014-censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era.

Results

In total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life-years, 16% (or 1.5 million life-years) has been realized as of December 2014.

Conclusions

Provision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits.

Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the present value of current and future funding needed for HIV treatment and prevention in 9 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that account for 70% of HIV burden in Africa under different scenarios of intervention scale-up. To analyse the gaps between current expenditures and funding obligation, and discuss the policy implications of future financing needs.

DESIGN

We used the Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries.

RESULTS

In the 9 SSA countries, the estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment in 2015-2050 range from US$98 billion to maintain current coverage levels for treatment and prevention with eligibility for treatment initiation at CD4 count of <500/mm(3) to US$261 billion if treatment were to be extended to all HIV-positive individuals and prevention scaled up. With the addition of new funding obligations for HIV--which arise implicitly through commitment to achieve higher than current treatment coverage levels--overall financial obligations (sum of debt levels and the present value of the stock of future HIV funding obligations) would rise substantially.

CONCLUSIONS

Investing upfront in scale-up of HIV services to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realising long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission. Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone. New sources of funding, in addition to domestic sources, include innovative financing. Debt sustainability for sustained HIV response is an urgent imperative for affected countries and donors.

Antiretroviral therapy: Shifting sands

HIV/AIDS has been an extremely difficult pandemic to control. However, with the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV has now been transformed into a chronic illness in patients who have continued treatment access and excellent long-term adherence. Existing indications for ART initiation in asymptomatic patients were based on CD4 levels; however, recent evidence has broken the shackles of CD4 levels. Early initiation of ART in HIV patients irrespective of CD4 counts can have profound positive impact on morbidity and mortality. Early initiation of ART has been found not only beneficial for patients but also to community as it reduces the risk of transmission. There have been few financial concerns about providing ART to all HIV-positive people but various studies have proven that early initiation of ART not only proves to be cost-effective but also contributes to economic and social growth of community. A novel multidisciplinary approach with early initiation and availability of ART at its heart can turn the tide in our favor in future. Effective preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis can also lower transmission risk of HIV in community. New understanding of HIV pathogenesis is opening new vistas to cure and prevention. Various promising candidate vaccines and drugs are undergoing aggressive clinical trials, raising optimism for an ever-elusive cure for HIV. This review describes various facets of tectonic shift in management of HIV.

Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS National Strategic Plan for Mozambique, 2015-2019--Projections with the Spectrum/Goals Model

Introduction

Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015–2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).

Methods

The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.

Results

Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million in 2019 for ‘Accelerated scale-up’. The ‘Accelerated scale-up’ would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).

Conclusion

The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS’ ‘Fast track’ targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

Meta-Analysis of Studies Comparing Single and Multi-Tablet Fixed Dose Combination HIV Treatment Regimens

Availability of a single source review of once-daily fixed-dose single tablet regimen (STR) and multiple tablet fixed-dose regimen (MTR) would optimally inform healthcare providers and policy makers involved in the management of population with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).We conducted a meta-analysis of published literature to compare patient adherence, clinical, and cost outcomes of STR to MTR.Published literature in English between 2005 and 2014 was searched using Embase, PubMed (Medline in-process), and ClinicalTrials.Gov databases. Two-level screening was undertaken by 2 independent researchers to finalize articles for evidence synthesis. Adherence, efficacy, safety, tolerability, healthcare resource use (HRU), and costs were assessed comparing STR to MTR. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed and heterogeneity examined using meta-regression.Thirty-five articles were identified for qualitative evidence synthesis, of which 9 had quantifiable data for meta-analysis (4 randomized controlled trials and 5 observational studies). Patients on STR were significantly more adherent when compared to patients on MTR of any frequency (odds ratio [OR]: 2.37 [95% CI: 1.68, 3.35], P < 0.001; 4 studies), twice-daily MTR (OR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.13, 5.66], P = 0.02; 2 studies), and once-daily MTR (OR: 1.81 [95% CI: 1.15, 2.84], P = 0.01; 2 studies). The relative risk (RR) for viral load suppression at 48 weeks was higher (RR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.15], P = .0003; 3 studies) while RR of grade 3 to 4 laboratory abnormalities was lower among patients on STR (RR: 0.68 [95% CI: 0.49, 0.94], P = 0.02; 2 studies). Changes in CD4 count at 48 weeks, any severe adverse events (SAEs), grade 3 to 4 AEs, mortality, and tolerability were found comparable between STR and MTR. Several studies reported significant reduction in HRU and costs among STR group versus MTR.Study depicted comparable tolerability, safety (All-SAE and Grade 3-4 AE), and mortality and fewer Grade 3 to 4 lab abnormalities and better viral load suppression and adherence among patients on FDC-containing STR versus MTR; literature depicted favorable HRU and costs for STRs.These findings may help decision makers especially in resource-poor settings to plan for optimal HIV disease management when the choice of both STRs and MTRs are available.

Expanding global access to radiotherapy

Radiotherapy is a critical and inseparable component of comprehensive cancer treatment and care. For many of the most common cancers in low-income and middle-income countries, radiotherapy is essential for effective treatment. In high-income countries, radiotherapy is used in more than half of all cases of cancer to cure localised disease, palliate symptoms, and control disease in incurable cancers. Yet, in planning and building treatment capacity for cancer, radiotherapy is frequently the last resource to be considered. Consequently, worldwide access to radiotherapy is unacceptably low. We present a new body of evidence that quantifies the worldwide coverage of radiotherapy services by country. We show the shortfall in access to radiotherapy by country and globally for 2015-35 based on current and projected need, and show substantial health and economic benefits to investing in radiotherapy. The cost of scaling up radiotherapy in the nominal model in 2015-35 is US$26·6 billion in low-income countries, $62·6 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $94·8 billion in upper-middle-income countries, which amounts to $184·0 billion across all low-income and middle-income countries. In the efficiency model the costs were lower: $14·1 billion in low-income, $33·3 billion in lower-middle-income, and $49·4 billion in upper-middle-income countries-a total of $96·8 billion. Scale-up of radiotherapy capacity in 2015-35 from current levels could lead to saving of 26·9 million life-years in low-income and middle-income countries over the lifetime of the patients who received treatment. The economic benefits of investment in radiotherapy are very substantial. Using the nominal cost model could produce a net benefit of $278·1 billion in 2015-35 ($265·2 million in low-income countries, $38·5 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $239·3 billion in upper-middle-income countries). Investment in the efficiency model would produce in the same period an even greater total benefit of $365·4 billion ($12·8 billion in low-income countries, $67·7 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $284·7 billion in upper-middle-income countries). The returns, by the human-capital approach, are projected to be less with the nominal cost model, amounting to $16·9 billion in 2015-35 (-$14·9 billion in low-income countries; -$18·7 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $50·5 billion in upper-middle-income countries). The returns with the efficiency model were projected to be greater, however, amounting to $104·2 billion (-$2·4 billion in low-income countries, $10·7 billion in lower-middle-income countries, and $95·9 billion in upper-middle-income countries). Our results provide compelling evidence that investment in radiotherapy not only enables treatment of large numbers of cancer cases to save lives, but also brings positive economic benefits.

Interventions for improving employment outcomes for workers with HIV

BACKGROUND

The vast majority of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are adults of working age. Therefore unemployment and job loss resulting from HIV infection are major public health and economic concerns. Return to work (RTW) after diagnosis of HIV is a long and complex process, particularly if the individual has been absent from work for long periods. There have been various efforts to improve the RTW of persons living with HIV (HIV+), and many of these have been assessed formally in intervention studies.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of interventions aimed at sustaining and improving employment in HIV+ persons.

SEARCH METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search from 1981 until December 2014 in the following databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, OSH UPDATE databases (CISDOC, HSELINE, NIOSHTIC, NIOSHTIC-2, RILOSH), and PsycINFO.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered for inclusion all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or controlled before-after (CBA) studies assessing the effectiveness of pharmacological, vocational and psychological interventions with HIV+ working-aged (16 years or older) participants that had used RTW or other indices of employment as outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened all potential references for inclusion. We determined final selection of studies by consensus. We performed data extraction and management, as well as Risk of bias assessment, in duplicate. We measured the treatment effect using odds ratio (OR) for binary outcomes and mean difference (MD) for continuous outcomes. We applied the GRADE approach to appraise the quality of the evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We found one RCT with 174 participants and five CBAs with 48,058 participants assessing the effectiveness of vocational training (n = 1) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) (n = 5). We found no studies assessing psychological interventions. The one RCT was conducted in the United States; the five CBA studies were conducted in South Africa, India, Kenya, and Uganda. We graded all six studies as having a high risk of bias.The effectiveness of vocational intervention was assessed in only one study but we could not infer the intervention effect due to a lack of data.For pharmacological interventions, we found very low-quality evidence for a beneficial effect of ART on employment outcomes in five studies. Due to differences in outcome measurement we could only combine the results of two studies in a meta-analysis.Two studies compared employment outcomes of HIV+ persons on ART therapy to healthy controls. One study found a MD of -1.22 days worked per month (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.74 to -1.07) at 24-months follow-up. The other study found that the likelihood of being employed steadily increased for HIV+ persons compared to healthy individuals from ART initiation (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.47) to three- to five-years follow-up (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.28).Three other studies compared HIV+ persons on ART to HIV+ persons not yet on ART. Two studies indicated an increase in the likelihood of employment over time due to the impact of ART for HIV+ persons compared to HIV+ persons pre-ART (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.12). One study found that the group on ART worked 12.1 hours more (95% CI 6.99 to 17.21) per week at 24-months follow-up than the average of the cohort of ART and pre-ART HIV+ persons which was 20.1 hours.We rated the evidence as very low quality for all comparisons due to a high risk of bias.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found very low-quality evidence showing that ART interventions may improve employment outcomes for HIV+ persons. For vocational interventions, the one included study produced no evidence of an intervention effect. We found no studies that assessed psychological interventions. We need more high-quality, preferably randomized studies to assess the effectiveness of RTW interventions for HIV+ persons.

Where will the money come from? Alternative mechanisms to HIV donor funding

BACKGROUND

Donor funding for HIV programs has flattened out in recent years, which limits the ability of HIV programs worldwide to achieve universal access and sustain current progress. This study examines alternative mechanisms for resource mobilization.

METHODS

Potential non-donor funding sources for national HIV responses in low- and middle-income countries were explored through literature review and Global Fund documentation, including data from 17 countries. We identified the source, financing agent, magnitude of resources, frequency of availability, as well as enabling and risk factors.

RESULTS

Four non-donor funding sources for HIV programs were identified: earmarked levy for HIV from country budgets; risk-pooling schemes such as health insurance; debt conversion, in which the creditor country reduces the debt of the debtor country and allocates at least a part of that reduction to health; and concessionary loans from international development banks, which unlike grants, must be repaid. The first two are recurring sources of funding, while the latter two are usually one-time sources, and, if very large, might negatively affect the debtor country's economy. Insurance schemes in five African countries covered less than 6.1% of the HIV expenditure, while social health insurance in four Latin American countries covered 8-11% of the HIV expenditure; in Colombia and Chile, it covered 69% and 60%, respectively. Most low-income countries will find concessionary loans hard to repay, as their HIV programs cost 0.5-4% of GDP. Even in a middle-income country like India, a US$255 million concessionary loan to be repaid over 25 years provided only 7.8% of a 5-year HIV budget. Earmarked levies provided only 15% of the annual HIV funding needs in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Debt conversion provided the same share in Indonesia, but in Pakistan it was much higher - the equivalent of 45% of the annual cost of the national HIV program.

CONCLUSIONS

Domestic sources of funding are important alternatives to consider and might be able to replace donor HIV funding in specific country contexts, coupled with effective prioritization and efficiency measures. Successful resource mobilization design and implementation require close collaboration with other sectors, particularly with the Ministry of Finance, to make sure that the new financing mechanism is fully synchronized with economic growth and that HIV investments yield returns in the form of higher social benefits.

The HIV epidemic and prevention response in Tigrai, Ethiopia: a synthesis at sub-national level

BACKGROUND

This study, the first of its kind carried out at sub-national level in Ethiopia, was conducted in order to understand the dynamics of HIV transmission at regional and district level in Tigrai, Ethiopia; and to assess the adequacy of the HIV prevention response.

METHODS

Routine data from health centres, data from available published and grey literature and studies, and primary qualitative information were triangulated to draw an updated picture of the HIV epidemic, HIV response and resource allocation in Tigrai.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence in Tigrai was 1.8% in 2011 (EDHS). ANC data show that there has been a continuous decline in the prevalence of HIV in both urban and rural areas (urban: 14.9% in 2001 to 5.0% in 2009; rural: 5.2% in 2001 to 1.3% in 2009, ANC surveillance data). Variability in prevalence by zone and by district was observed. Possible reasons for higher prevalence include the presence of mobile seasonal workers, highly urbanized centres, a high concentration of economic activity and connecting roads and large commercial farms. Sex workers, seasonal farm workers and HIV negative partners in discordant couples were identified as being at higher risk. There is no evidence that programme planning is done on the basis of geographical variations in HIV prevalence and there are gaps in programmes and services for certain high risk population groups.

CONCLUSION

Considerable efforts have been invested in the HIV prevention response in Tigrai however, these efforts do not fully respond to the actual needs. For a more effective and targeted HIV prevention response, studies and data syntheses need to be carried out at sub-national level in order to accurately identify local specificities and plan accordingly. Resources should be targeted towards areas where transmission is linked to sex work, mobility and the mobile labour workforce.

Effect of antiretroviral therapy on patients' economic well being: five-year follow-up

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on South African HIV patients' economic well being, as indicated by symptoms, normal activities, employment, and external support, during the first 5 years on treatment.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 879 adult patients at public or nongovernmental clinics enrolled before ART initiation or on ART less than 6 months and followed for 5.5 years or less. Patients were interviewed during routine clinic visits. Outcomes were estimated using population-averaged logistic regression and reported as proportions of the cohort experiencing outcomes by duration on ART.

RESULTS

For patients remaining in care, outcomes improved continuously and substantially, with all differences between baseline and 5 years statistically significant (P < 0.05) and continued significant improvement between year 3 and year 5. The probability of reporting pain last week fell from 69% during the three months before starting ART to 17% after 5 years on ART and fatigue from 62 to 7%. The probability of not being able to perform normal activities in the previous week fell from 47 to 5% and of being employed increased from 32 to 44%; difficulty with job performance among those employed fell from 56 to 6%. As health improved, the probability of relying on a caretaker declined from 81 to less than 1%, and receipt of a disability grant, which initially increased, fell slightly over time on ART.

CONCLUSION

Results from one of the longest prospective cohorts tracking economic outcomes of HIV treatment in Africa suggest continuous improvement during the first 5 years on treatment, confirming the sustained economic benefits of providing large-scale treatment.

The survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

We sought to quantify the survival benefits attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa since 2004.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International model (CEPAC) to simulate 8 cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients initiating ART each year during 2004-2011. Model inputs included cohort-specific mean CD4(+) T-cell count at ART initiation (112-178 cells/µL), 24-week ART suppressive efficacy (78%), second-line ART availability (2.4% of ART recipients), and cohort-specific 36-month retention rate (55%-71%). CEPAC simulated survival twice for each cohort, once with and once without ART. The sum of the products of per capita survival differences and the total numbers of persons initiating ART for each cohort yielded the total survival benefits.

RESULTS

Lifetime per capita survival benefits ranged from 9.3 to 10.2 life-years across the 8 cohorts. Total estimated population lifetime survival benefit for all persons starting ART during 2004-2011 was 21.7 million life-years, of which 2.8 million life-years (12.7%) had been realized by December 2012. By 2030, benefits reached 17.9 million life-years under current policies, 21.7 million life-years with universal second-line ART, 23.3 million life-years with increased linkage to care of eligible untreated patients, and 28.0 million life-years with both linkage to care and universal second-line ART.

CONCLUSIONS

We found dramatic past and potential future survival benefits attributable to ART, justifying international support of ART rollout in South Africa.

Financing essential HIV services: a new economic agenda

Anna Vassall and colleagues discuss the need for, and challenges facing, innovative and sustainable financing of the HIV response.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

A comparison of HAART outcomes between the US military HIV Natural History Study (NHS) and HIV Atlanta Veterans Affairs Cohort Study (HAVACS)

Introduction

The Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) provide comprehensive HIV treatment and care to their beneficiaries with open access and few costs to the patient. Individuals who receive HIV care in the VA have higher rates of substance abuse, homelessness and unemployment than individuals who receive HIV care in the DoD. A comparison between individuals receiving HIV treatment and care from the DoD and the VA provides an opportunity to explore the impact of individual-level characteristics on clinical outcomes within two healthcare systems that are optimized for clinic retention and medication adherence.

Methods

Data were collected on 1065 patients from the HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study (HAVACS) and 1199 patients from the US Military HIV Natural History Study (NHS). Patients were eligible if they had an HIV diagnosis and began HAART between January 1, 1996 and June 30, 2010. The analysis examined the survival from HAART initiation to all-cause mortality or an AIDS event.

Results

Although there was substantial between-cohort heterogeneity and the 12-year survival of participants in NHS was significantly higher than in HAVACS in crude analyses, this survival disparity was reduced from 21.5% to 1.6% (mortality only) and 26.8% to 4.1% (combined mortality or AIDS) when controlling for clinical and demographic variables.

Conclusion

We assessed the clinical outcomes for individuals with HIV from two very similar government-sponsored healthcare systems that reduced or eliminated many barriers associated with accessing treatment and care. After controlling for clinical and demographic variables, both 12-year survival and AIDS-free survival rates were similar for the two study cohorts who have open access to care and medication despite dramatic differences in socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics.

Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.

CONCLUSIONS

South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The world must build on three decades of scientific advances to enable a new generation to live free of HIV/AIDS

The extraordinary scientific advances made in the past three decades to understand, treat, and prevent HIV infection have contributed to the hope that a world free of AIDS is achievable. The growing armamentarium of scientifically proven interventions-including the use of antiretroviral medications to treat and prevent HIV infection, voluntary medical male circumcision, education and counseling about HIV risk and behavior change, condom use, drug and alcohol treatment, and needle exchange programs for injection drug users-offers an unprecedented opportunity to make major gains in the fight against HIV/AIDS. Combining and implementing these interventions as effectively as possible has the potential to dramatically change the trajectory of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Substantive challenges remain, especially obtaining sufficient funding for HIV-related interventions and developing the operational capacity to deliver them cost-effectively to all in need. If these challenges can be met, the world will have a clear path toward an "AIDS-free generation" in which new HIV infections, as well as illness and death due to AIDS, are increasingly rare.

Scale-up of HIV treatment through PEPFAR: a historic public health achievement

Since its inception in 2003, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has been an important driving force behind the global scale-up of HIV care and treatment services, particularly in expansion of access to antiretroviral therapy. Despite initial concerns about cost and feasibility, PEPFAR overcame challenges by leveraging and coordinating with other funders, by working in partnership with the most affected countries, by supporting local ownership, by using a public health approach, by supporting task-shifting strategies, and by paying attention to health systems strengthening. As of September 2011, PEPFAR directly supported initiation of antiretroviral therapy for 3.9 million people and provided care and support for nearly 13 million people. Benefits in terms of prevention of morbidity and mortality have been reaped by those receiving the services, with evidence of societal benefits beyond the anticipated clinical benefits. However, much remains to be accomplished to achieve universal access, to enhance the quality of programs, to ensure retention of patients in care, and to continue to strengthen health systems.

Controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic: current status and global challenges

This review provides an overview of the current status of the global HIV pandemic and strategies to bring it under control. It updates numerous preventive approaches including behavioral interventions, male circumcision (MC), pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis (PREP and PEP), vaccines, and microbicides. The manuscript summarizes current anti-retroviral treatment options, their impact in the western world, and difficulties faced by emerging and resource-limited nations in providing and maintaining appropriate treatment regimens. Current clinical and pre-clinical approaches toward a cure for HIV are described, including new drug compounds that target viral reservoirs and gene therapy approaches aimed at altering susceptibility to HIV infection. Recent progress in vaccine development is summarized, including novel approaches and new discoveries.

HIV treatment produces economic returns through increased work and education, and warrants continued US support

Federal expenditures are under scrutiny in the United States, and the merits of continuing and expanding the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) to support access to antiretroviral therapy have become a topic of debate. A growing body of research on the economic benefits of treatment with antiretroviral therapy has important implications for these discussions. For example, research conducted since the inception of PEPFAR shows that HIV-infected adults who receive antiretroviral therapy often begin or resume productive work, and that children living in households with infected adults who are on treatment are more likely to attend school than those in households with untreated adults. These benefits should be considered when weighing the overall benefits of providing antiretroviral therapy against its costs, particularly in the context of discussions about the future of PEPFAR. A modest case can also be made in favor of having private companies in HIV-affected countries provide antiretroviral therapy to their employees and dependents, thus sharing some of the burden of funding HIV treatment.

In a study of a population cohort in South Africa, HIV patients on antiretrovirals had nearly full recovery of employment

Antiretroviral therapy for HIV may have important economic benefits for patients and their households. We quantified the impact of HIV treatment on employment status among HIV patients in rural South Africa who were enrolled in a public-sector HIV treatment program supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. We linked clinical data from more than 2,000 patients in the treatment program with ten years of longitudinal socioeconomic data from a complete community-based population cohort of more than 30,000 adults residing in the clinical catchment area. We estimated the employment effects of HIV treatment in fixed-effects regressions. Four years after the initiation of antiretroviral therapy, employment among HIV patients had recovered to about 90 percent of baseline rates observed in the same patients three to five years before they started treatment. Many patients initiated treatment early enough that they were able to avoid any loss of employment due to HIV. These results represent the first estimates of employment recovery among HIV patients in a general population, relative to the employment levels that these patients had prior to job-threatening HIV illness and the decision to seek care. There are large economic benefits to HIV treatment. For some patients, further gains could be obtained from initiating antiretroviral therapy earlier, prior to HIV-related job loss.

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model

AIM

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries.

METHODS

We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy.

RESULTS

Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts.

CONCLUSION

Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.

Global health funding and economic development

The impact of increased national wealth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on public health is widely understood, however an equally important but less well-acclaimed relationship exists between improvements in health and the growth of an economy. Communicable diseases such as HIV, TB, Malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are impacting many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, and depressing economic development. Sickness and disease has decreased the size and capabilities of the workforce through impeding access to education and suppressing foreign direct investment (FDI). There is clear evidence that by investing in health improvements a significant increase in GDP per capita can be attained in four ways: Firstly, healthier populations are more economically productive; secondly, proactive healthcare leads to decrease in many of the additive healthcare costs associated with lack of care (treating opportunistic infections in the case of HIV for example); thirdly, improved health represents a real economic and developmental outcome in-and-of itself and finally, healthcare spending capitalises on the Keynesian 'economic multiplier' effect. Continued under-investment in health and health systems represent an important threat to our future global prosperity. This editorial calls for a recognition of health as a major engine of economic growth and for commensurate investment in public health, particularly in poor countries.

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

METHODS

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3) (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3) prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

CONCLUSION

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.

HIV treatment as prevention: modelling the cost of antiretroviral treatment--state of the art and future directions

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention.