Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Should I stay, should I go, or something in between? The potential for parasite-mediated and age-related differential migration strategies

Seasonal long-distance migratory behaviour of trillions of animals may in part have evolved to reduce parasite infection risk, and the fitness costs that may come with these infections. This may apply to a diversity of vertebrate migration strategies that can sometimes be observed within species and may often be age-dependent. Herein we review some common age-related variations in migration strategy, discussing why in some animal species juveniles preferentially forego or otherwise rearrange their migrations as compared to adults, potentially as an either immediate (proximate) or anticipatory (ultimate) response to infection risk and disease. We notably focus on the phenomenon of “oversummering”, where juveniles abstain from migration to the breeding grounds. This strategy is particularly prevalent amongst migratory shorebirds and has thus far received little attention as a strategy to reduce parasite infection rate, while comparative intra-specific research approaches have strong potential to elucidate the drivers of differential behavioural strategies.

Establishment and application of the National Parasitic Resource Center (NPRC) in China

The National Parasitic Resource Center (NPRC) was created in 2004. It is a first-level platform under the Basic Condition Platform Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China. The resource centre involves 21 depository institutions in 15 regions of the country, including human parasite and vector depository, animal parasite depository, plant nematode characteristic specimen library, medical insect characteristic specimen library, trematode model specimen library, parasite-vector/snail model specimen library, etc. After nearly 15 years of operation, the resource centre has been built into a physical library with a database of 11 phyla, 23 classes, 1115 species and 117,814 pieces of parasitic germplasm resources, and three live collection bases of parasitic germplasm resources. A variety of new parasite-related immunological and molecular biological detection and identification technologies produced by the resource centre are widely used in the fields of public health responses, risk assessments on food safety, and animal or plant quarantine. The NPRC is the largest and top level resource centre on parasitology in China, and it is a leading technology platform for collecting and identifying parasitic resources.

Experimental Malaria Infection Affects Songbirds' Nocturnal Migratory Activity

Migratory animals encounter multiple parasite communities, raising concerns that migration may aid transport of infectious disease. How migration affects disease spread depends fundamentally on how disease affects migration, specifically whether infection alters individuals' migratory physiology and behavior. We inoculated white-throated sparrows (Zonotrichia albicollis) with avian malaria parasites (Plasmodium sp.), monitored parasite loads for 5 wk as the birds reached spring migratory condition, and compared nocturnal migratory restlessness (Zugunruhe), body composition (fat, lean, and whole-body mass), and hematocrit among experimentally infected birds, sham-inoculated birds, and birds that were exposed to parasites but resisted infection. Migratory restlessness increased over time in the study, but the rate of change varied between sham (control) birds, infected birds, and birds that resisted infection. We were unable to detect any effects of malaria exposure on body condition. Our findings suggest that encountering parasites affects migratory activity, regardless of whether infection occurs or is resisted.

The Impact of Environmental Transmission and Epidemiological Features on the Geographical Translocation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus

The factors affecting the transmission and geographic translocation of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) within wild migratory bird populations remain inadequately understood. In a previous study, we found that environmental transmission had little impact on AIV translocation in a model of a single migratory bird population. In order to simulate virus transmission and translocation more realistically, here we expanded this model system to include two migratory bird flocks. We simulated AIV transmission and translocation while varying four core properties: 1) Contact transmission rate; 2) infection recovery rate; 3) infection-induced mortality rate; and 4) migration recovery rate; and three environmental transmission properties: 1) Virion persistence; 2) exposure rate; and 3) re-scaled environmental infectiousness; as well as the time lag in the migration schedule of the two flocks. We found that environmental exposure rate had a significant impact on virus translocation in the two-flock model. Further, certain epidemiological features (i.e., low infection recovery rate, low mortality rate, and high migration transmission rate) in both flocks strongly affected the likelihood of virus translocation. Our results further identified the pathobiological features supporting AIV intercontinental dissemination risk.

Pathobiological features favouring the intercontinental dissemination of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a continued threat to global health and economy. Unlike other highly pathogenic AIVs, novel H5N8 disseminated very quickly from Korea to other areas in Asia, Europe and even North America following its first outbreak in 2014. However, the pathobiological features of the virus that favoured its global translocation remain unknown. In this study, we used a compartmental model to examine the avian epidemiological characteristics that would support the geographical spread of influenza by bird migration, and to provide recommendations for AIV surveillance in wild bird populations. We simulated virus transmission and translocation in a migratory bird population while varying four system properties: (i) contact transmission rate; (ii) infection recovery rate; (iii) mortality rate induced by infection; and (iv) migratory recovery rate. Using these simulations, we then calculated extinction and translocation probabilities for influenza during spring migration as a function of the altered properties. We find that lower infection recovery rates increase the likelihood of AIV translocation in migratory bird populations. In addition, lower mortality rates or migration recovery rates also favour translocation. Our results identify pathobiological features supporting AIV intercontinental dissemination risk and suggest that characteristic differences exist among H5N8 and other AIV subtypes that have not translocated as rapidly (e.g. H5N6 and H5N1).

The roles of migratory and resident birds in local avian influenza infection dynamics

Migratory birds are an increasing focus of interest when it comes to infection dynamics and the spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, we lack detailed understanding migratory birds' contribution to local AIV prevalence levels and their downstream socio-economic costs and threats.To explain the potential differential roles of migratory and resident birds in local AIV infection dynamics, we used a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. We investigated five (mutually non- exclusive) mechanisms potentially driving observed prevalence patterns: 1) a pronounced birth pulse (e.g. the synchronised annual influx of immunologically naïve individuals), 2) short-term immunity, 3) increase of susceptible migrants, 4) differential susceptibility to infection (i.e. transmission rate) for migrants and residents, and 5) replacement of migrants during peak migration.SIR models describing all possible combinations of the five mechanisms were fitted to individual AIV infection data from a detailed longitudinal surveillance study in the partially migratory mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos). During autumn and winter, the local resident mallard community also held migratory mallards that exhibited distinct AIV infection dynamics.Replacement of migratory birds during peak migration in autumn was found to be the most important mechanism driving the variation in local AIV infection patterns. This suggests that a constant influx of migratory birds, likely immunological naïve to locally circulating AIV strains, is required to predict the observed temporal prevalence patterns and the distinct differences in prevalence between residents and migrants.Synthesis and applications. Our analysis reveals a key mechanism that could explain the amplifying role of migratory birds in local avian influenza virus infection dynamics; the constant flow and replacement of migratory birds during peak migration. Aside from monitoring efforts, in order to achieve adequate disease management and control in wildlife - with knock-on effects for livestock and humans, - we conclude that it is crucial, in future surveillance studies, to record host demographical parameters such as population density, timing of birth and turnover of migrants.

Exposing migratory sparrows to Plasmodium suggests costs of resistance, not necessarily of infection itself

Migratory birds move through multiple habitats and encounter a diverse suite of parasites. This raises concern over migrants' role in transporting infectious disease between breeding and wintering grounds, and along migratory flyways. Trade-offs between flight and immune defenses could interfere with infected individuals' migratory timing and success, potentially affecting infection dynamics. However, experimental evidence that parasitic infection affects migratory preparation or timing remains scant. We hypothesized that birds encountering hematozoan parasites shortly before migration incur physical costs (reduced body condition) and behavioral costs (delayed migration), due to the infection itself and/or to the demands of mounting an immune response. We experimentally inoculated song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) with Plasmodium shortly before fall migration. We monitored infection and body composition for 2 weeks after inoculation, and used radiotelemetry to track timing of migratory departure for another 7 weeks after release. Inoculated individuals that resisted infection had lower lean mass 12 days post exposure, relative to controls and infected individuals. This suggests trade-offs between body composition and immune defenses that might reduce migration success of resistant individuals. Despite group differences in body composition prior to release, we did not detect significant differences in timing of migration departure several weeks later. Thus, malarial infection did not appear to incur detectable costs to body composition or to migratory timing, at least when exposure occurs several weeks before migration. This study is novel considering not only the costs of infection, but also the costs of resisting infection, in an experimental context.

Calling in sick: impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility

Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.

Migratory animals feel the cost of getting sick: A meta-analysis across species

Migratory animals are widely assumed to play an important role in the long-distance dispersal of parasites, and are frequently implicated in the global spread of zoonotic pathogens such as avian influenzas in birds and Ebola viruses in bats. However, infection imposes physiological and behavioural constraints on hosts that may act to curtail parasite dispersal via changes to migratory timing ("migratory separation") and survival ("migratory culling"). There remains little consensus regarding the frequency and extent to which migratory separation and migratory culling may operate, despite a growing recognition of the importance of these mechanisms in regulating transmission dynamics in migratory animals. We quantitatively reviewed 85 observations extracted from 41 studies to examine how both infection status and infection intensity are related to changes in body stores, refuelling rates, movement capacity, phenology and survival in migratory hosts across taxa. Overall, host infection status was weakly associated with reduced body stores, delayed migration and lower survival, and more strongly associated with reduced movement. Infection intensity was not associated with changes to host body stores, but was associated with moderate negative effects on movement, phenology and survival. In conclusion, we found evidence for negative effects of infection on host phenology and survival, but the effects were relatively small. This may have implications for the extent to which migratory separation and migratory culling act to limit parasite dispersal in migratory systems. We propose a number of recommendations for future research that will further advance our understanding of how migratory separation and migratory culling may shape host-parasite dynamics along migratory routes globally.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Are Migratory Animals Superspreaders of Infection?

Migratory animals are simultaneously challenged by the physiological demands of long-distance movements and the need to avoid natural enemies including parasites and pathogens. The potential for animal migrations to disperse pathogens across large geographic areas has prompted a growing body of research investigating the interactions between migration and infection. However, the phenomenon of animal migration is yet to be incorporated into broader theories in disease ecology. Because migrations may expose animals to a greater number and diversity of pathogens, increase contact rates between hosts, and render them more susceptible to infection via changes to immune function, migration has the potential to generate both "superspreader species" and infection "hotspots". However, migration has also been shown to reduce transmission in some species, by facilitating parasite avoidance ("migratory escape") and weeding out infected individuals ("migratory culling"). This symposium was convened in an effort to characterize more broadly the role that animal migrations play in the dynamics of infectious disease, by integrating a range of approaches and scales across host taxa. We began with questions related to within-host processes, focusing on the consequences of nutritional constraints and strenuous movement for individual immune capability, and of parasite infection for movement capacity. We then scaled-up to between-host processes to identify what types, distances, or patterns of host movements are associated with the spread of infectious agents. Finally, we discussed landscape-scale relationships between migration and infectious disease, and how these may be altered as a result of anthropogenic changes to climate and land use. We are just beginning to scratch the surface of the interactions between infection and animal migrations; yet, with so many migrations now under threat, there is an urgent need to develop a holistic understanding of the potential for migrations to both increase and reduce infection risk.

A Bird's Eye View of Influenza A Virus Transmission: Challenges with Characterizing Both Sides of a Co-Evolutionary Dynamic

In nature, wild birds and influenza A viruses (IAV) are continually co-evolving, locked into a back-and-forth of resistance and conquest that has approached a stable equilibrium over time. This co-evolutionary relationship between bird host and IAV may appear stable at the organismal level, but is highly dynamic at the molecular level manifesting in a constant trade-off between transmissibility and virulence of the virus. Characterizing both sides of the host-virus dynamic has presented a challenge for ecologists and virologists alike, despite the potential for this approach to provide insights into which conditions destabilize the equilibrium state resulting in outbreaks or mortality of hosts in extreme cases. The use of different methods that are either host-centric or virus-centric has made it difficult to reconcile the disparate fields of host ecology and virology for investigating and ultimately predicting wild bird-mediated transmission of IAV. This review distills some of the key lessons learned from virological and ecological studies and explores the promises and pitfalls of both approaches. Ultimately, reconciling ecological and virological approaches hinges on integrating scales for measuring host-virus interactions. We argue that prospects for finding common scales for measuring wild bird-influenza dynamics are improving due to advances in genomic sequencing, host-tracking technology and remote sensing data, with the unit of time (months, year, or seasons) providing a starting point for crossover.

Hampered performance of migratory swans: intra- and inter-seasonal effects of avian influenza virus

The extent to which animal migrations shape parasite transmission networks is critically dependent on a migrant's ability to tolerate infection and migrate successfully. Yet, sub-lethal effects of parasites can be intensified through periods of increased physiological stress. Long-distance migrants may, therefore, be especially susceptible to negative effects of parasitic infection. Although a handful of studies have investigated the short-term, transmission-relevant behaviors of wild birds infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV), the ecological consequences of LPAIV for the hosts themselves remain largely unknown. Here, we assessed the potential effects of naturally-acquired LPAIV infections in Bewick's swans, a long-distance migratory species that experiences relatively low incidence of LPAIV infection during early winter. We monitored both foraging and movement behavior in the winter of infection, as well as subsequent breeding behavior and inter-annual resighting probability over 3 years. Incorporating data on infection history we hypothesized that any effects would be most apparent in naïve individuals experiencing their first LPAIV infection. Indeed, significant effects of infection were only seen in birds that were infected but lacked antibodies indicative of prior infection. Swans that were infected but had survived a previous infection were indistinguishable from uninfected birds in each of the ecological performance metrics. Despite showing reduced foraging rates, individuals in the naïve-infected category had similar accumulated body stores to re-infected and uninfected individuals prior to departure on spring migration, possibly as a result of having higher scaled mass at the time of infection. And yet individuals in the naïve-infected category were unlikely to be resighted 1 year after infection, with 6 out of 7 individuals that never resighted again compared to 20 out of 63 uninfected individuals and 5 out of 12 individuals in the re-infected category. Collectively, our findings indicate that acute and superficially harmless infection with LPAIV may have indirect effects on individual performance and recruitment in migratory Bewick's swans. Our results also highlight the potential for infection history to play an important role in shaping ecological constraints throughout the annual cycle.

Does influenza A virus infection affect movement behaviour during stopover in its wild reservoir host?

The last decade has seen a surge in research on avian influenza A viruses (IAVs), in part fuelled by the emergence, spread and potential zoonotic importance of highly pathogenic virus subtypes. The mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is the most numerous and widespread dabbling duck in the world, and one of the most important natural hosts for studying IAV transmission dynamics. In order to predict the likelihood of IAV transmission between individual ducks and to other hosts, as well as between geographical regions, it is important to understand how IAV infection affects the host. In this study, we analysed the movements of 40 mallards equipped with GPS transmitters and three-dimensional accelerometers, of which 20 were naturally infected with low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV), at a major stopover site in the Northwest European flyway. Movements differed substantially between day and night, as well as between mallards returning to the capture site and those feeding in natural habitats. However, movement patterns did not differ between LPAIV infected and uninfected birds. Hence, LPAIV infection probably does not affect mallard movements during stopover, with high possibility of virus spread along the migration route as a consequence.

Modeling highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in wild birds and poultry in West Bengal, India

Wild birds are suspected to have played a role in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in West Bengal. Cluster analysis showed that H5N1 was introduced in West Bengal at least 3 times between 2008 and 2010. We simulated the introduction of H5N1 by wild birds and their contact with poultry through a stochastic continuous-time mathematical model. Results showed that reducing contact between wild birds and domestic poultry, and increasing the culling rate of infected domestic poultry communities will reduce the probability of outbreaks. Poultry communities that shared habitat with wild birds or those indistricts with previous outbreaks were more likely to suffer an outbreak. These results indicate that wild birds can introduce HPAI to domestic poultry and that limiting their contact at shared habitats together with swift culling of infected domestic poultry can greatly reduce the likelihood of HPAI outbreaks.

Migratory animals couple biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide

Animal migrations span the globe, involving immense numbers of individuals from a wide range of taxa. Migrants transport nutrients, energy, and other organisms as they forage and are preyed upon throughout their journeys. These highly predictable, pulsed movements across large spatial scales render migration a potentially powerful yet underappreciated dimension of biodiversity that is intimately embedded within resident communities. We review examples from across the animal kingdom to distill fundamental processes by which migratory animals influence communities and ecosystems, demonstrating that they can uniquely alter energy flow, food-web topology and stability, trophic cascades, and the structure of metacommunities. Given the potential for migration to alter ecological networks worldwide, we suggest an integrative framework through which community dynamics and ecosystem functioning may explicitly consider animal migrations.

Potential Intercontinental Movement of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus into North America by Wild Birds: Application of a Rapid Assessment Framework

A critical question surrounding emergence of novel strains of avian influenza viruses (AIV) is the ability for wild migratory birds to translocate a complete (unreassorted whole genome) AIV intercontinentally. Virus translocation via migratory birds is suspected in outbreaks of highly pathogenic strain A(H5N1) in Asia, Africa and Europe. As a result, the potential intercontinental translocation of newly emerging AIV such as A(H7N9) from Eurasia to North America via migratory movements of birds remains a concern. An estimated 2.91 million aquatic birds move annually between Eurasia and North America with an estimated AIV prevalence as high as 32.2%. Here, we present a rapid assessment to address the likelihood of whole (unreassorted)-genome translocation of Eurasian strain AIV into North America. The scope of this assessment was limited specifically to assess the weight of evidence to support the movement of an unreassorted AIV intercontinentally by migratory aquatic birds. We developed a rapid assessment framework to assess the potential for intercontinental movement of avian influenzas by aquatic birds. This framework was iteratively reviewed by a multidisciplinary panel of scientific experts until a consensus was established. Our assessment framework identified four factors that may contribute to the potential for introduction of any AIV intercontinentally into North America by wild aquatic birds. These factors, in aggregate, provide a framework for evaluating the likelihood of new forms of AIV from Eurasia to be introduced by aquatic birds into North America. Based on our assessment, we determined that the potential for introduction of A(H7N9) into North America through aquatic migratory birds is possible, but the likelihood ranges from extremely low to low.

Juveniles and migrants as drivers for seasonal epizootics of avian influenza virus

Similar to other infectious diseases, the prevalence of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) has been seen to exhibit marked seasonal variation. However, mechanisms driving this variation in wild birds have yet to be tested. We investigated the validity of three previously suggested drivers for the seasonal dynamics in LPAIV infections in wild birds: (i) host density, (ii) immunologically naïve young and (iii) increased susceptibility in migrants. To address these questions, we sampled a key LPAIV host species, the mallard Anas platyrhynchos, on a small spatial scale, comprehensively throughout a complete annual cycle, measuring both current and past infection (i.e. viral and seroprevalence, respectively). We demonstrate a minor peak in LPAIV prevalence in summer, a dominant peak in autumn, during which half of the sampled population was infected, and no infections in spring. Seroprevalence of antibodies to a conserved gene segment of avian influenza virus (AIV) peaked in winter and again in spring. The summer peak of LPAIV prevalence coincided with the entrance of unfledged naïve young in the population. Moreover, juveniles were more likely to be infected, shed higher quantities of virus and were less likely to have detectable antibodies to AIV than adult birds. The arrival of migratory birds, as identified by stable hydrogen isotope analysis, appeared to drive the autumn peak in LPAIV infection, with both temporal coincidence and higher infection prevalence in migrants. Remarkably, seroprevalence in migrants was substantially lower than viral prevalence throughout autumn migration, further indicating that each wave of migrants amplified local AIV circulation. Finally, while host abundance increased throughout autumn, it peaked in winter, showing no direct correspondence with either of the LPAIV infection peaks. At an epidemiologically relevant spatial scale, we provide strong evidence for the role of migratory birds as key drivers for seasonal epizootics of LPAIV, regardless of their role as vectors of these viruses. This study exemplifies the importance of understanding host demography and migratory behaviour when examining seasonal drivers of infection in wildlife populations.

Mechanistic models of animal migration behaviour--their diversity, structure and use

1. Migration is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom, including many taxonomic groups and modes of locomotion. Developing an understanding of the proximate and ultimate causes for this behaviour not only addresses fundamental ecological questions but has relevance to many other fields, for example in relation to the spread of emerging zoonotic diseases, the proliferation of invasive species, aeronautical safety as well as the conservation of migrants. 2. Theoretical methods can make important contributions to our understanding of migration, by allowing us to integrate findings on this complex behaviour, identify caveats in our understanding and to guide future empirical research efforts. Various mechanistic models exist to date, but their applications seem to be scattered and far from evenly distributed across taxonomic units. 3. Therefore, we provide an overview of the major mechanistic modelling approaches used in the study of migration behaviour and characterize their fundamental features, assumptions and limitations and discuss their typical data requirements both for model parameterization and for scrutinizing model predictions. 4. Furthermore, we review 155 studies that have used mechanistic models to study animal migration and analyse them with regard to the approaches used and the focal species, and also explore their contribution to advancing current knowledge within six broad migration ecology research themes. 5. This identifies important gaps in our present knowledge, which should be tackled in future research using existing and to-be developed theoretical approaches.

Ecophysiology of avian migration in the face of current global hazards

Long-distance migratory birds are often considered extreme athletes, possessing a range of traits that approach the physiological limits of vertebrate design. In addition, their movements must be carefully timed to ensure that they obtain resources of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy their high-energy needs. Migratory birds may therefore be particularly vulnerable to global change processes that are projected to alter the quality and quantity of resource availability. Because long-distance flight requires high and sustained aerobic capacity, even minor decreases in vitality can have large negative consequences for migrants. In the light of this, we assess how current global change processes may affect the ability of birds to meet the physiological demands of migration, and suggest areas where avian physiologists may help to identify potential hazards. Predicting the consequences of global change scenarios on migrant species requires (i) reconciliation of empirical and theoretical studies of avian flight physiology; (ii) an understanding of the effects of food quality, toxicants and disease on migrant performance; and (iii) mechanistic models that integrate abiotic and biotic factors to predict migratory behaviour. Critically, a multi-dimensional concept of vitality would greatly facilitate evaluation of the impact of various global change processes on the population dynamics of migratory birds.