The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model

Investigating the effects of COVID-19 and public health expenditure on global supply chain operations: an empirical study

This fresh examination was a thought-provoking area that was required to be undertaken and to fill this gap, the researchers have examined the impact of Covid-19 and health expenditure on the global supply chain by utilizing balanced panel data for the period from January 2020 to June 2020. This study utilized a random effect, fixed effect, GMM, and FGLS approach. The outcomes of COVID-19 demonstrate a significant negative influence as per the FGLS model, whereas the health expenditure demonstrates a significant negative effect on the global supply chain under both the dynamic models i.e. GMM and FGLS. As far as manufacturing value-added is concerned it indicates a positive and significant influence on the global supply chain according to the FGLS model whereas, last but not least the logistics performance index has a significant positive effect on the global supply chain according to the results of GMM and FGLS models respectively. The global supply chain is the lifeline for the global economy; thus, it is suggested that under COVID-19 pandemic situation policymakers need to react quickly and take suitable policy actions to deal with this unprecedented pandemic driven economic crises and further the cross-border trading activities should not be stopped, rather governments should formulate smart lockdown strategies.

Work and home productivity of people living with HIV in Zambia and South Africa

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Objective:

To compare number of days lost to illness or accessing healthcare for HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals working in the informal and formal sectors in South Africa and Zambia.

Design:

As part of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, data on adults aged 18–44 years were gathered from cross-sectional surveys of random general population samples in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. Data on the number of productive days lost in the last 3 months, laboratory-confirmed HIV status, labour force status, age, ethnicity, education, and recreational drug use was collected.

Methods:

Differences in productive days lost between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals (’excess productive days lost’) were estimated with negative binomial models, and results disaggregated for HIV-positive individuals after various durations on antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Results:

From samples of 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 18 004 respondents in South Africa, HIV-positive individuals lost more productive days to illness than HIV-negative individuals in both countries. HIV-positive individuals in Zambia lost 0.74 excess productive days [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48–1.01; P < 0.001] to illness over a 3-month period. HIV-positive in South Africa lost 0.13 excess days (95% CI 0.04–0.23; P = 0.007). In Zambia, those on ART for less than 1 year lost most days, and those not on ART lost fewest days. In South Africa, results disaggregated by treatment duration were not statistically significant.

Conclusion:

There is a loss of work and home productivity associated with HIV, but it is lower than existing estimates for HIV-positive formal sector workers. The findings support policy makers in building an accurate investment case for HIV interventions.

Impact of "test and treat" recommendations on eligibility for antiretroviral treatment: Cross sectional population survey data from three high HIV prevalence countries

Background

Latest WHO guidelines recommend starting HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy treatment (ART) regardless of CD4 count. We assessed additional impact of adopting new WHO guidelines.

Methods

We used data of individuals aged 15–59 years from three HIV population surveys conducted in 2012 (Kenya) and 2013 (Malawi and South Africa). Individuals were interviewed at home followed by rapid HIV and CD4 testing if tested HIV-positive. HIV-positive individuals were classified as “eligible for ART” if (i) had ever been initiated on ART or (ii) were not yet on ART but met the criteria for starting ART based on country’s guidelines at the time of the survey (Kenya–CD4< = 350 cells/μl and WHO Stage 3 or 4 disease, Malawi as for Kenya plus lifelong ART for all pregnant and breastfeeding women, South Africa as for Kenya plus ART for pregnant and breastfeeding women until cessation of breastfeeding).

Findings

Of 18,991 individuals who tested, 4,113 (21.7%) were HIV-positive. Using country’s ART eligibility guidelines at the time of the survey, the proportion of HIV-infected individuals eligible for ART was 60.0% (95% CI: 57.2–62.7) (Kenya), 73.4% (70.8–75.8) (South Africa) and 80.1% (77.3–82.6) (Malawi). Applying WHO 2013 guidelines (eligibility at CD4< = 500 and Option B+ for pregnant and breastfeeding women), the proportions eligible were 82.0% (79.8–84.1) (Kenya), 83.7% (81.5–85.6) (South Africa) and 87.6% (85.0–89.8) (Malawi). Adopting “test and treat” would mean a further 18.0% HIV-positive individuals (Kenya), 16.3% (South Africa) and 12.4% (Malawi) would become eligible. In all countries, about 20% of adolescents (aged 15–19 years), became eligible for ART moving from WHO 2013 to “test and treat” while no differences by sex were observed.

Conclusion

Countries that have already implemented 2013 WHO recommendations, the burden of implementing “test and treat” would be small. Youth friendly programmes to help adolescents access and adhere to treatment will be needed.

Understanding HIV-infected patients' experiences with PEPFAR-associated transitions at a Centre of Excellence in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa: a qualitative study

South Africa was the largest recipient of funding from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) for antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs from 2004 to 2012. Funding decreases have led to transfers from hospital and non-governmental organization-based care to government-funded, community-based clinics. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 36 participants to assess patient experiences related to transfer of care from a PEPFAR-funded, hospital-based clinic in Durban to either primary care clinics or hospital-based clinics. Participant narratives revealed the importance of connectedness between patients and the PEPFAR-funded clinic program staff, who were described as respectful and conscientious. Participants reported that transfer clinics were largely focused on dispensing medication and on throughput, rather than holistic care. Although participants appreciated the free treatment at transfer sites, they expressed frustration with long waiting times and low perceived quality of patient-provider communication, and felt that they were treated disrespectfully. These factors eroded confidence in the quality of the care. The transfer was described by participants as hurried with an apparent lack of preparation at transfer clinics for new patient influx. Formal (e.g., counseling) and informal (e.g., family) social supports, both within and beyond the PEPFAR-funded clinic, provided a buffer to challenges faced during and after the transition in care. These data support the importance of social support, adequate preparation for transfer, and improving the quality of care in receiving clinics, in order to optimize retention in care and long-term adherence to treatment.

To count or not to count deaths: reranking effects in health distribution evaluation

Populations' structures and sizes can be a result of healthcare policy decisions. We use a two-period theoretical framework and a dynamic microsimulation model to examine the consequences of this assertion on the appraisal of alternative health policy options. Results show that standard welfare-in-health measures are sensitive to changes in populations' sizes, in that taking into account the (virtual) existence of the dead can alter the ranking of policy options. Disregarding differences in the survivals induced by alternative policies can bias programmes' ranking in favour of less live-saving policies. The paper alerts on the risk of policy misranking by the use of ex-post cross-sectional analyses, neglecting deaths occurring in the past as well as counterfactual deaths in alternative policy scenarios.

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam

This study determines an optimal strategy for scaling up ART in Vietnam by examining three initiation thresholds [350 cells/mm(3), 500 cells/mm(3), and treat all people living with HIV (PLHIV) regardless of CD4 cell counts] and treatment commencement rates among treatment-eligible PLHIV ranging from 5% to 100% within 12 months of diagnosis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated using a Markov model, based on data from a cohort of 3449 patients who initiated ART between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2009 in 13 outpatient clinics across six provinces in Vietnam. Our analyses indicated that raising treatment eligibility criteria, in line with WHO guidelines (CD4 ≤500 cells/mm(3)) or removing CD4-based criteria would both be cost-effective in Vietnam. However, the cost-effective strategy from an economic viewpoint is first to increase coverage substantially among those with lowest CD4 levels, and only when coverage increases towards saturation should initiation criteria be lifted. Universal coverage under current guidelines would cost an additional $85 million and $96 million per year if the treatment threshold was 500 cells/mm(3). These scenarios would avert 15,000 and 22,000 HIV-related deaths in 2010-2019, with ICERs of $500-$660 per QALY gained. It is imperative to increase treatment coverage for newly diagnosed PLHIV in Vietnam according to the current guidelines prior to increasing the CD4 threshold for ART initiation.

Towards universal voluntary HIV testing and counselling: a systematic review and meta-analysis of community-based approaches

BACKGROUND

Effective national and global HIV responses require a significant expansion of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) to expand access to prevention and care. Facility-based HTC, while essential, is unlikely to meet national and global targets on its own. This article systematically reviews the evidence for community-based HTC.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

PubMed was searched on 4 March 2013, clinical trial registries were searched on 3 September 2012, and Embase and the World Health Organization Global Index Medicus were searched on 10 April 2012 for studies including community-based HTC (i.e., HTC outside of health facilities). Randomised controlled trials, and observational studies were eligible if they included a community-based testing approach and reported one or more of the following outcomes: uptake, proportion receiving their first HIV test, CD4 value at diagnosis, linkage to care, HIV positivity rate, HTC coverage, HIV incidence, or cost per person tested (outcomes are defined fully in the text). The following community-based HTC approaches were reviewed: (1) door-to-door testing (systematically offering HTC to homes in a catchment area), (2) mobile testing for the general population (offering HTC via a mobile HTC service), (3) index testing (offering HTC to household members of people with HIV and persons who may have been exposed to HIV), (4) mobile testing for men who have sex with men, (5) mobile testing for people who inject drugs, (6) mobile testing for female sex workers, (7) mobile testing for adolescents, (8) self-testing, (9) workplace HTC, (10) church-based HTC, and (11) school-based HTC. The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and the Cochrane Collaboration's "risk of bias" tool were used to assess the risk of bias in studies with a comparator arm included in pooled estimates. 117 studies, including 864,651 participants completing HTC, met the inclusion criteria. The percentage of people offered community-based HTC who accepted HTC was as follows: index testing, 88% of 12,052 participants; self-testing, 87% of 1,839 participants; mobile testing, 87% of 79,475 participants; door-to-door testing, 80% of 555,267 participants; workplace testing, 67% of 62,406 participants; and school-based testing, 62% of 2,593 participants. Mobile HTC uptake among key populations (men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, female sex workers, and adolescents) ranged from 9% to 100% (among 41,110 participants across studies), with heterogeneity related to how testing was offered. Community-based approaches increased HTC uptake (relative risk [RR] 10.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.27-18.08), the proportion of first-time testers (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.42), and the proportion of participants with CD4 counts above 350 cells/µl (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16-1.74), and obtained a lower positivity rate (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.96), relative to facility-based approaches. 80% (95% CI 75%-85%) of 5,832 community-based HTC participants obtained a CD4 measurement following HIV diagnosis, and 73% (95% CI 61%-85%) of 527 community-based HTC participants initiated antiretroviral therapy following a CD4 measurement indicating eligibility. The data on linking participants without HIV to prevention services were limited. In low- and middle-income countries, the cost per person tested ranged from US$2-US$126. At the population level, community-based HTC increased HTC coverage (RR 7.07, 95% CI 3.52-14.22) and reduced HIV incidence (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73-1.02), although the incidence reduction lacked statistical significance. No studies reported any harm arising as a result of having been tested.

CONCLUSIONS

Community-based HTC achieved high rates of HTC uptake, reached people with high CD4 counts, and linked people to care. It also obtained a lower HIV positivity rate relative to facility-based approaches. Further research is needed to further improve acceptability of community-based HTC for key populations. HIV programmes should offer community-based HTC linked to prevention and care, in addition to facility-based HTC, to support increased access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42012002554 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Examining the evidence on the causal effect of HAART on transmission of HIV using the Bradford Hill criteria

In recent years, evidence has accumulated regarding the ability of HAART to prevent HIV transmission. Early supportive evidence was derived from observational, ecological and population-based studies. More recently, a randomized clinical trial showed that immediate use of HAART led to a 96% decrease in HIV transmission events within HIV serodiscordant heterosexual couples. However, the generalizability of the effect of HAART, and the population-level impact on HIV transmission continues to generate substantial debate. We, therefore, conducted a review of the evidence regarding the preventive effect of HAART on HIV transmission within the context of the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. Taken together, we find the accumulated evidence supporting HIV treatment as prevention meets each of the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. We conclude that the opportunity cost of inaction while waiting for additional evidence on the generalizability of effect in other risk groups is too high. Efforts should be redoubled to mobilize the financial capital and political will to optimize implementation of HIV Treatment as Prevention strategies on a wide scale.

Public sector services for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection: a micro-costing survey in Namibia and Rwanda

OBJECTIVE

To assess the costs associated with the provision of services for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus in two African countries.

METHODS

In 2009, the costs to health-care providers of providing comprehensive PMTCT services were assessed in 20 public health facilities in Namibia and Rwanda. Information on prices and on the total amount of each service provided was collected at the national level. The costs of maternal testing and counselling, male partner testing, CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) counts, antiretroviral prophylaxis and treatment, community-based activities, contraception for 2 years postpartum and early infant diagnosis were estimated in United States dollars (US$).

FINDINGS

The estimated costs to the providers of PMTCT, for each mother-infant pair, were US$202.75-1029.55 in Namibia and US$94.14-342.35 in Rwanda. These costs varied with the drug regimen employed. At 2009 coverage levels, the maximal estimates of the national costs of PMTCT were US$3.15 million in Namibia and US$7.04 million in Rwanda (or < US$0.75 per capita in both countries). Adult testing and counselling accounted for the highest proportions of the national costs (37% and 74% in Namibia and Rwanda, respectively), followed by management and supervision. Treatment and prophylaxis accounted for less than 20% of the costs of PMTCT in both study countries.

CONCLUSION

The costs involved in the PMTCT of HIV varied widely between study countries and in accordance with the protocols used. However, since per-capita costs were relatively low, the scaling up of PMTCT services in Namibia and Rwanda should be possible.

Risk factors, barriers and facilitators for linkage to antiretroviral therapy care: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To characterize patient and programmatic factors associated with retention in care during the pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) period and linkage to ART care.

DESIGN

Systematic literature review.

METHODS

An electronic search was conducted on MEDLINE, Global Health, Google Scholar and conference databases to identify studies reporting on predictors, barriers and facilitators of retention in care in the pre-ART period, and linkage to care at three steps: ART-eligibility assessment, pre-ART care and ART initiation. Factors associated with attrition were then divided into areas for intervention.

RESULTS

Seven hundred and sixty-eight citations were identified. Forty-two studies from 12 countries were included for review, with the majority from South Africa (16). The most commonly cited category of factors was transport costs and distance. Stigma and fear of disclosure comprised the second most commonly cited category of factors followed by staff shortages, long waiting times, fear of drug side effects, male sex, younger age and the need to take time off work.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the importance of investigating interventions that could reduce transport difficulties. Decentralization, task-shifting and integration of services need to be expedited to alleviate health system barriers. Patient support groups and strategic posttest counselling are essential to assist patients deal with stigma and disclosure. Moreover, well tolerated first-line drugs and treatment literacy programmes are needed to improve acceptance of ART. This review suggests a combination of interventions to retain specific groups at risk for attrition such as workplace programmes for employed patients, dedicated clinic and support programmes for men and younger individuals.

HIV treatment and care in resource-constrained environments: challenges for the next decade

Many successes have been achieved in HIV care in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC): increased number of HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART), wide decentralization, reduction in morbidity and mortality and accessibility to cheapest drugs. However, these successes should not hide existing failures and difficulties. In this paper, we underline several key challenges. First, ensure long-term financing, increase available resources, in order to meet the increasing needs, and redistribute the overall budget in a concerted way amongst donors. Second, increase ART coverage and treat the many eligible patients who have not yet started ART. Competition amongst countries is expected to become a strong driving force in encouraging the least efficient to join better performing countries. Third, decrease early mortality on ART, by improving access to prevention, case-finding and treatment of tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases and by getting people to start ART much earlier. Fourth, move on from WHO 2006 to WHO 2010 guidelines. Raising the cut-off point for starting ART to 350 CD4/mm³ needs changing paradigm, adopting opt-out approach, facilitating pro-active testing, facilitating task shifting and increasing staff recruitments. Phasing out stavudine needs acting for a drastic reduction in the costs of other drugs. Scaling up routine viral load needs a mobilization for lower prices of reagents and equipments, as well as efforts in relation to point-of-care automation and to maintenance. The latter is a key step to boost the utilization of second-line regimens, which are currently dramatically under prescribed. Finally, other challenges are to reduce lost-to-follow-up rates; manage lifelong treatment and care for long-term morbidity, including drug toxicity, residual AIDS and HIV-non-AIDS morbidity and aging-related morbidity; and be able to face unforeseen events such as socio-political and military crisis. An old African proverb states that the growth of a deep-rooted tree cannot be stopped. Our tree is well rooted in existing field experience and is, therefore, expected to grow. In order for us to let it grow, long-term cost-effectiveness approach and life-saving evidence-based programming should replace short-term budgeting approach.