Incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions following initiation of anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings

Incidence of Pneumonia and Predictors Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infected Children at Public Health Institutions in the Northwest Part of Ethiopia: Multicenter Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Introduction

Pneumonia is an inflammation of the lung parenchymal structure secondary to hematogens spread of pathogens, inhalation, or aspiration. It is also one of the most frequently occurring opportunistic infections in HIV-infected children. In Ethiopia, data on the incidence and predictors of opportunistic infection, especially pneumonia, among HIV-infected children is very limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the incidence of pneumonia and predictors among HIV-infected children at public health institutions in the Northwest part of Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 342 HIV-infected children at public health institutions from January 1, 2013 to December 30, 2020. Log rank test was used to compare the survival curves between different explanatory variables. Bivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed for each explanatory variable to check the association with the outcome variable. Variables found to have a p-value of < 0.25 in the bivariable analysis were candidates for the multi-variable proportional hazard model. Cox proportional hazards model was used at 5% level of significance to identify predictors of pneumonia.

Results

This study included 342 records of HIV-infected children who started antiretroviral therapy between the periods of January 1, 2013 to December 30, 2020. The overall incidence rate of pneumonia during the follow-up time was 5.57 (95% CI: 4.4, 7.0) per 100 child-years of observation. Those children who did not take cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR: 3, 95% CI: 1.40, 6.44), being underweight at baseline (AHR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.41, 4.86), having baseline advanced disease (clinical stages III and IV) (AHR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.30, 6.04), and presenting with recently detected viral load (AHR: 5.9, 95% CI: 2.53, 14.06), were more likely to develop pneumonia.

Conclusion

Pneumonia incidence rate was high. Providing prophylaxis and nutritional supplementation for those children with baseline advanced disease stage, low weight for age and detectable viral load would reduce pneumonia occurrence.

The impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on TB risk in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Children (<15 years) are vulnerable to TB disease following infection, but no systematic review or meta-analysis has quantified the effects of HIV-related immunosuppression or antiretroviral therapy (ART) on their TB incidence.

OBJECTIVES

Determine the impact of HIV infection and ART on risk of incident TB disease in children.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies measuring HIV prevalence in paediatric TB cases ('TB cohorts') and paediatric HIV cohorts reporting TB incidence ('HIV cohorts'). Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa tool. TB cohorts with controls were meta-analysed to determine the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for TB given HIV. HIV cohort data were meta-analysed to estimate the trend in log-IRR versus CD4%, relative incidence by immunological stage and ART-associated protection from TB.

RESULTS

42 TB cohorts and 22 HIV cohorts were included. In the eight TB cohorts with controls, the IRR for TB was 7.9 (95% CI 4.5 to 13.7). HIV-infected children exhibited a reduction in IRR of 0.94 (95% credible interval: 0.83-1.07) per percentage point increase in CD4%. TB incidence was 5.0 (95% CI 4.0 to 6.0) times higher in children with severe compared with non-significant immunosuppression. TB incidence was lower in HIV-infected children on ART (HR: 0.30; 95% CI 0.21 to 0.39). Following initiation of ART, TB incidence declined rapidly over 12 months towards a HR of 0.10 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV is a potent risk factor for paediatric TB, and ART is strongly protective. In HIV-infected children, early diagnosis and ART initiation reduces TB risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42014014276.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) in Africa: a neglected but important pathogen

In Africa, human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is an important pathogen in a diverse range of patient groups. Congenital CMV infection is common, and most children undergo primary infection during the first year of life. Preliminary studies suggest that these early primary CMV infections could have population-wide effects on growth and development. In most studies of adults, CMV seroprevalence is close to 100%, but some studies have found that significant minorities of adults are seronegative. CMV is a common cause of pneumonia and meningitis in hospitalised immunosuppressed patient groups, and CMV DNAemia may be an important marker of rapid progression and poor outcomes of HIV infection, despite roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Diagnosis and treatment of CMV-related disease is broadly neglected in Africa, and no randomised clinical trials of anti-CMV drugs have been conducted to date. Autopsy is rarely performed in Africa, but identifies CMV as a frequent pathogen when it is carried out. Here we review the available literature on CMV in Africa, primarily in adult patients, and discuss this in the context of contemporary understanding of CMV as a human pathogen.

Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Less Than 24 Months of Age at Pediatric HIV Centers in Tanzania: 12-Month Clinical Outcomes and Survival

BACKGROUND

Without antiretroviral therapy (ART), approximately one-half of HIV-infected infants will die by two years. In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that all HIV-infected infants < 24 months be initiated on ART regardless of their clinical/immunologic status. However, there remains little published data detailing cohorts of infants on ART in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study describes baseline characteristics and 12 month outcomes of a cohort of HIV-infected children < 24 months of age at pediatric HIV centers in Mwanza and Mbeya, Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective chart review.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

children < 24 months of age, initiated on ART at Baylor Children s Foundation Tanzania clinics, between March-December 2011.

RESULTS

Baseline: Ninety-three children were initiated on ART at a median age of 13.4 months. Sixty-seven percent had severe immunosuppression and 31.5% had severe malnutrition.

OUTCOME

Seventy-three patients were still in care at 12 month follow-up, there were four (4.3%) deaths, five (5.4%) patients transferred, and 11 (11.8%) loss to follow-up. Average CD4% was 32.7 (p < 0.001). Ninety percent of patients were WHO treatment stage I (p < 0.001). Eighty-six percent had normal nutritional status (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our cohort of HIV infected children < 24 months initiated on ART did well clinically at 12 month outcomes despite being severely immunocompromised and malnourished at baseline. Nevirapine based regimens had good 12 month clinical outcomes, regardless of maternal exposure. Loss to follow-up rate was high for our cohort, demonstrating the need to develop strong mechanisms to counteract this.

Risk factors for mortality during antiretroviral therapy in older populations in resource-limited settings

INTRODUCTION

An increasing proportion of adult patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings are aged > 50 years. Older populations on ART appear to have heightened risk of death, but little is known about factors influencing mortality in this population.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational multisite cohort study including all adult patients (≥ 15 years) initiating ART between 2003 and 2013 in programmes supported by Médecins Sans Frontières across 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe. Patients were stratified into two age groups, > 50 years and 15 to 50 years. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 41,088 patients: 2591 (6.3%) were aged > 50 years and 38,497 (93.7%) were aged 15 to 50 years. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the age group > 50 years [367 (14.2%) deaths; mortality rate 7.67 deaths per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.93 to 8.50)] compared to the age group 15 to 50 years [3788 (9.8%) deaths; mortality rate 4.18 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.05 to 4.31)], p < 0.0001. Higher CD4 levels at baseline were associated with significantly reduced mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group but this association was not seen in the > 50 age group. WHO Stage 4 conditions were more strongly associated with increased mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group compared to populations > 50 years. WHO Stage 3 conditions were associated with an increased mortality rate in the 15 to 50 age group but not in the > 50 age group. Programme region did not affect mortality rates in the > 50 age group; however being in an Asian programme was associated with a 36% reduced mortality rate in populations aged 15 to 50 years compared to being in an African programme. There was a higher overall incidence of Stage 3 WHO conditions in people > 50 years (12.8/100 person-years) compared to those 15 to 50 years (8.1/100 person-years) (p < 0.01). The rate of Stage 4 WHO conditions was similar (5.8/100 versus 6.1/100 respectively, p = 0.52). Mortality rates on ART associated with the majority of specific WHO conditions were similar between the 15 to 50 and > 50 age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients on ART in resource-limited settings have increased mortality rates, but compared to younger populations this appears to be less influenced by baseline CD4 count and WHO clinical stage. HIV treatment programmes in resource-limited settings need to consider risk factors associated with mortality on ART in older populations, which may differ to those related to younger adults.

A Clinical Predictor Score for 30-Day Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Hospitalized with Pneumonia in Uganda

Background

Pneumonia is a major cause of mortality among HIV-infected patients. Pneumonia severity scores are promising tools to assist clinicians in predicting patients’ 30-day mortality, but existing scores were developed in populations infected with neither HIV nor tuberculosis (TB) and include laboratory data that may not be available in resource-limited settings. The objective of this study was to develop a score to predict mortality in HIV-infected adults with pneumonia in TB-endemic, resource-limited settings.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a prospective study enrolling HIV-infected adults with cough ≥2 weeks and <6 months and clinically suspected pneumonia admitted to Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda from September 2008 to March 2011. Patients provided two sputum specimens for mycobacteria, and those with Ziehl-Neelsen sputum smears that were negative for mycobacteria underwent bronchoscopy with inspection for Kaposi sarcoma and testing for mycobacteria and fungi, including Pneumocystis jirovecii. A multivariable best subsets regression model was developed, and one point was assigned to each variable in the model to develop a clinical predictor score for 30-day mortality.

Results

Overall, 835 patients were studied (mean age 34 years, 53.4% female, 30-day mortality 18.2%). A four-point clinical predictor score was identified and included heart rate >120 beats/minute, respiratory rate >30 breaths/minute, oxygen saturation <90%, and CD4 cell count <50 cells/mm³. Patients’ 30-day mortality, stratified by score, was: score 0 or 1, 12.6%, score 2 or 3, 23.4%, score 4, 53.9%. For each 1 point change in clinical predictor score, the odds of 30-day mortality increased by 65% (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.39-1.96, p <0.001).

Conclusions

A simple, four-point scoring system can stratify patients by levels of risk for mortality. Rapid identification of higher risk patients combined with provision of timely and appropriate treatment may improve clinical outcomes. This predictor score should be validated in other resource-limited settings.

Severe morbidity after antiretroviral (ART) initiation: active surveillance in HIV care programs, the IeDEA West Africa collaboration

Background

The causes of severe morbidity in health facilities implementing Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) programmes are poorly documented in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to describe severe morbidity among HIV-infected patients after ART initiation, based on data from an active surveillance system established within a network of specialized care facilities in West African cities.

Methods

Within the International epidemiological Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) - West Africa collaboration, we conducted a prospective, multicenter data collection that involved two facilities in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire and one in Cotonou, Benin. Among HIV-infected adults receiving ART, events were recorded using a standardized form. A simple case-definition of severe morbidity (death, hospitalization, fever > 38°5C, Karnofsky index < 70%) was used at any patient contact point. Then a physician confirmed and classified the event as WHO stage 3 or 4 according to the WHO clinical classification or as degree 3 or 4 of the ANRS scale.

Results

From December 2009 to December 2011, 978 adults (71% women, median age 39 years) presented with 1449 severe events. The main diagnoses were: non-AIDS-defining infections (33%), AIDS-defining illnesses (33%), suspected adverse drug reactions (7%), other illnesses (4%) and syndromic diagnoses (16%). The most common specific diagnoses were: malaria (25%), pneumonia (13%) and tuberculosis (8%). The diagnoses were reported as syndromic in one out of five events recorded during this study.

Conclusions

This study highlights the ongoing importance of conventional infectious diseases among severe morbid events occurring in patients on ART in ambulatory HIV care facilities in West Africa. Meanwhile, additional studies are needed due to the undiagnosed aspect of severe morbidity in substantial proportion.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-0910-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV, tuberculosis, and noncommunicable diseases: what is known about the costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of integrated care?

Unprecedented investments in health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have resulted in more than 8 million individuals on antiretroviral therapy. Such individuals experience dramatically increased survival but are increasingly at risk of developing common noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Integrating clinical care for HIV, other infectious diseases, and NCDs could make health services more effective and provide greater value. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a method to evaluate the clinical benefits and costs associated with different health care interventions and offers guidance for prioritization of investments and scale-up, especially as resources are increasingly constrained. We first examine tuberculosis and HIV as 1 example of integrated care already successfully implemented in several LMICs; we then review the published literature regarding cervical cancer and depression as 2 examples of NCDs for which integrating care with HIV services could offer excellent value. Direct evidence of the benefits of integrated services generally remains scarce; however, data suggest that improved effectiveness and reduced costs may be attained by integrating additional services with existing HIV clinical care. Further investigation into clinical outcomes and costs of care for NCDs among people living with HIV in LMICs will help to prioritize specific health care services by contributing to an understanding of the affordability and implementation of an integrated approach.

Disease patterns and causes of death of hospitalized HIV-positive adults in West Africa: a multicountry survey in the antiretroviral treatment era

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to describe the morbidity and mortality patterns in HIV-positive adults hospitalized in West Africa.

METHOD

We conducted a six-month prospective multicentre survey within the IeDEA West Africa collaboration in six adult medical wards of teaching hospitals in Abidjan, Ouagadougou, Cotonou, Dakar and Bamako. From April to October 2010, all newly hospitalized HIV-positive patients were eligible. Baseline and follow-up information until hospital discharge was recorded using standardized forms. Diagnoses were reviewed by a local event validation committee using reference definitions. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were studied with a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Among 823 hospitalized HIV-positive adults (median age 40 years, 58% women), 24% discovered their HIV infection during the hospitalization, median CD4 count was 75/mm(3) (IQR: 25-177) and 48% had previously received antiretroviral treatment (ART). The underlying causes of hospitalization were AIDS-defining conditions (54%), other infections (32%), other diseases (8%) and non-specific illness (6%). The most frequent diseases diagnosed were: tuberculosis (29%), pneumonia (15%), malaria (10%) and cerebral toxoplasmosis (10%). Overall, 315 (38%) patients died during hospitalization and the underlying cause of death was AIDS (63%), non-AIDS-defining infections (26%), other diseases (7%) and non-specific illness or unknown cause (4%). Among them, the most frequent fatal diseases were: tuberculosis (36%), cerebral toxoplasmosis (10%), cryptococcosis (9%) and sepsis (7%). Older age, clinical WHO stage 3 and 4, low CD4 count, and AIDS-defining infectious diagnoses were associated with hospital fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

AIDS-defining conditions, primarily tuberculosis, and bacterial infections were the most frequent causes of hospitalization in HIV-positive adults in West Africa and resulted in high in-hospital fatality. Sustained efforts are needed to integrate care of these disease conditions and optimize earlier diagnosis of HIV infection and initiation of ART.

Morbidity and health care resource utilization in HIV-infected children after antiretroviral therapy initiation in Côte d'Ivoire, 2004-2009

BACKGROUND

We describe severe morbidity and health care resource utilization (HCRU) among HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

All HIV-infected children enrolled in an HIV-care program (2004-2009) were eligible for ART initiation until database closeout, death, ART interruption, or loss to follow-up. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of density per 100 child-years (CYs) for severe morbidity, HCRU (outpatient care and inpatient care), and associated factors using frailty models with a Weibull distribution.

RESULTS

Of 332 children with a median age of 5.7 years and median follow-up of 2.5 years, 65.4% were severely immunodeficient by World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, and all received cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. We recorded 464 clinical events in 228 children; the overall IR was 57.6/100 CYs [95% confidence interval (CI): 52.1 to 62.5]. Severe morbidity was more frequent in children on protease inhibitor (PI)-based ART compared to those on other regimens [adjusted hazards ratio (aHR): 1.83; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.47] and to those moderately/severely immunodeficient compared to those not (aHR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.18 and aHR: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.81 to 3.55, respectively). Of the 464 events, 371 (80%) led to outpatient care (IR: 45.6/100 CYs) and 164 (35%) to inpatient care (IR: 20.2/100 CYs). In adjusted analyses, outpatient care was significantly less frequent in children older than 10 years compared with children younger than 2 years (aHR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.78) and in those living furthest from clinics compared with those living closest (aHR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.90). Both inpatient and outpatient HCRU were negatively associated with cotrimoxazole prophylaxis.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite ART, HIV-infected children still require substantial utilization of health care services.

Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context

OBJECTIVE

To compare the potential population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV epidemics concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients, with and without existing condom-based FSW interventions.

DESIGN

Mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission in south India.

METHODS

We simulated HIV epidemics in three districts to assess the 10-year impact of existing ART programs (ART eligibility at CD4 cell count ≤350) beyond that achieved with high condom use, and the incremental benefit of expanding ART by either increasing ART eligibility, improving access to care, or prioritizing ART expansion to FSWs/clients. Impact was estimated in the total population (including FSWs and clients).

RESULTS

In the presence of existing condom-based interventions, existing ART programs (medium-to-good coverage) were predicted to avert 11-28% of remaining HIV infections between 2014 and 2024. Increasing eligibility to all risk groups prevented an incremental 1-15% over existing ART programs, compared with 29-53% when maximizing access to all risk groups. If there was no condom-based intervention, and only poor ART coverage, then expanding ART prevented a larger absolute number but a smaller relative fraction of HIV infections for every additional person-year of ART. Across districts and baseline interventions, for every additional person-year of treatment, prioritizing access to FSWs was most efficient (and resource saving), followed by prioritizing access to FSWs and clients.

CONCLUSION

The relative and absolute benefit of ART expansion depends on baseline condom use, ART coverage, and epidemic size. In south India, maximizing FSWs' access to care, followed by maximizing clients' access are the most efficient ways to expand ART for HIV prevention, across baseline intervention context.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Understanding the contribution of common childhood illnesses and opportunistic infections to morbidity and mortality in children living with HIV in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE

Although antiretroviral treatment (ART) has reduced the incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections among children living with HIV, access to ART remains limited for children, especially in resource-limited settings. This paper reviews current knowledge on the contribution of opportunistic infections and common childhood illnesses to morbidity and mortality in children living with HIV, highlights interventions known to improve the health of children, and identifies research gaps for further exploration.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Literature review of peer-reviewed articles and abstracts combined with expert opinion and operational experience.

RESULTS

Morbidity and mortality due to opportunistic infections has decreased in both developed and resource-limited countries. However, the burden of HIV-related infections remains high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of HIV-infected children live. Limitations in diagnostic capacity in resource-limited settings have resulted in a relative paucity of data on opportunistic infections in children. Additionally, the reliance on clinical diagnosis means that opportunistic infections are often confused with common childhood illnesseswhich also contribute to excess morbidity and mortality in these children. Although several preventive interventions have been shown to decrease opportunistic infection-related mortality, implementation of many of these interventions remains inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to reduce opportunistic infection-related mortality, early ART must be expanded, training for front-line clinicians must be improved, and additional research is needed to improve screening and diagnostic algorithms.

Burden of HIV-related cytomegalovirus retinitis in resource-limited settings: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a late-stage opportunistic infection in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS. Lack of ophthalmological diagnostic skills, lack of convenient CMV treatment, and increasing access to antiretroviral therapy have all contributed to an assumption that CMV retinitis is no longer a concern in low- and middle-income settings.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies reporting prevalence of CMV retinitis in low- and middle-income countries. Eligible studies assessed the occurrence of CMV retinitis by funduscopic examination within a cohort of at least 10 HIV-positive adult patients.

RESULTS

We identified 65 studies from 24 countries, mainly in Asia (39 studies, 12 931 patients) and Africa (18 studies, 4325 patients). By region, the highest prevalence was observed in Asia with a pooled prevalence of 14.0% (11.8%-16.2%). Almost a third (31.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6%-35.8%) had vision loss in 1 or both eyes. Few studies reported immune status, but where reported CD4 count at diagnosis of CMV retinitis was <50 cells/µL in 73.4% of cases. There was no clear pattern of prevalence over time, which was similar for the period 1993-2002 (11.8%; 95% CI, 8%-15.7%) and 2009-2013 (17.6%; 95% CI, 12.6%-22.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of CMV retinitis in resource low- and middle-income countries, notably Asian countries, remains high, and routine retinal screening of late presenting HIV-positive patients should be considered. HIV programs must ensure capacity to manage the needs of patients who present late for care.

Impact of HIV-associated conditions on mortality in people commencing anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings

Objectives

To identify associations between specific WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions diagnosed after ART initiation and all cause mortality for patients in resource-limited settings (RLS).

Design, Setting

Analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010.

Subjects, Participants

36,664 study participants with median ART follow-up of 1.26 years (IQR 0.55–2.27).

Outcome Measures

Using a proportional hazards model we identified factors associated with mortality, including the occurrence of specific WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during the 6-months following ART initiation.

Results

There were 2922 deaths during follow-up (8.0%). The crude mortality rate was 5.41 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.21–5.61). The diagnosis of any WHO stage 3 or 4 condition during the first 6 months of ART was associated with increased mortality (HR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.97–2.47). After adjustment for age, sex, region and pre-ART CD4 count, a diagnosis of extrapulmonary cryptococcosis (aHR: 3.54; 95% CI: 2.74–4.56), HIV wasting syndrome (aHR: 2.92; 95%CI: 2.21 -3.85), non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection (aHR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.80–3.28) and Pneumocystis pneumonia (aHR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.80–3.28) were associated with the greatest increased mortality. Cerebral toxoplasmosis, pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, Kaposi’s sarcoma and oral and oesophageal candidiasis were associated with increased mortality, though at lower rates.

Conclusions

A diagnosis of certain WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions is associated with an increased risk of mortality in those initiating ART in RLS. This information will assist initiatives to reduce excess mortality, including prioritization of resources for diagnostics, therapeutic interventions and research.