Dynamic stability of coral reefs on the west Australian coast

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient

Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.

Zone specific trends in coral cover, genera and growth-forms in the World-Heritage listed Ningaloo Reef

On coral reefs, changes in the cover and relative abundance of hard coral taxa often follow disturbance. Although the ecological responses of common coral taxa have been well documented, little is known about the ecological responses of uncommon coral taxa or of coral morphological groups across multiple adjacent reef zones. We used Multivariate Auto-Regressive State-Space modelling to assess the rate and direction of change of hard coral cover across a variety of coral genera, growth forms, and susceptibility to bleaching and physical damage covering multiple reef zones at northern Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia. Trends were assessed between 2007 and 2016, during which multiple episodic disturbances occurred including cyclones and a heatwave. We provide evidence of zone specific trends, not only in total hard coral cover, but also in taxonomic and morphological groups of corals at Ningaloo Reef. Declines in total coral cover on the reef flat corresponded with declines in fast growing corals, particularly Acropora. In contrast, total coral cover on the reef slope and inshore (lagoon) did not undergo significant change, despite divergent trajectories of individual genera. Importantly, we also show that changes in the composition of coral assemblages can be detected using a morphological based approach when changes are not evident using a taxonomic approach. Therefore, we recommend that future assessments of coral reef trends incorporate not just standard metrics such as total coral cover, but also metrics that provide for detailed descriptions of trends in common and uncommon taxa and morphological groups across multiple reef zones.

Successive marine heatwaves cause disproportionate coral bleaching during a fast phase transition from El Niño to La Niña

The frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves that result in coral bleaching events have increased over recent decades and led to catastrophic losses of reef-building corals in many regions. The high-latitude coral assemblages at Lord Howe Island, which is a UNESCO listed site is the world southernmost coral community, were exposed to successive thermal anomalies following a fast phase-transition of the record-breaking 2009 to 2010 warm pool El Niño in the Central Pacific to a strong La Niña event in late 2010. The coral community experienced severe and unprecedented consecutive bleaching in both 2010 and 2011. Coral health surveys completed between March 2010 and September 2012 quantified the response and recovery of approximately 43,700 coral colonies to these successive marine heatwaves. In March 2010, coral bleaching ranged from severe, with 99% of colonies bleached at some shallow lagoon sites, to mild at deeper reef slope sites, with only 17% of individuals affected. Significant immediate mortality from thermal stress was evident during the peak of the bleaching event. Overall, species in the genera Pocillopora, Stylophora, Seriatopora and Porites were the most affected, while minimal bleaching and mortality was recorded among members of other coral families (e.g. Acroporidae, Dendrophyllidae & Merulinidae). Surviving corals underwent a subsequent, but much less intense, thermal anomaly in 2011 that led to a disproportionate bleaching response among susceptible taxa. While this observation indicates that the capacity of thermally susceptible high-latitude corals to acclimatize to future ocean warming may be limited, particularly if bleaching events occur annually, our long-term survey data shows that coral cover at most sites recovered to pre-bleaching levels within three years in the absence of further thermal anomalies.

Declining abundance of coral reef fish in a World-Heritage-listed marine park

One of the most robust metrics for assessing the effectiveness of protected areas is the temporal trend in the abundance of the species they are designed to protect. We surveyed coral-reef fish and living hard coral in and adjacent to a sanctuary zone (SZ: where all forms of fishing are prohibited) in the World Heritage-listed Ningaloo Marine Park during a 10-year period. There were generally more individuals and greater biomass of many fish taxa (especially emperors and parrotfish) in the SZ than the adjacent recreation zone (RZ: where recreational fishing is allowed) — so log response ratios of abundance were usually positive in each year. However, despite this, there was an overall decrease in both SZ and RZ in absolute abundance of some taxa by up to 22% per year, including taxa that are explicitly targeted (emperors) by fishers and taxa that are neither targeted nor frequently captured (most wrasses and butterflyfish). A concomitant decline in the abundance (measured as percentage cover) of living hard coral of 1–7% per year is a plausible explanation for the declining abundance of butterflyfish, but declines in emperors might be more plausibly due to fishing. Our study highlights that information on temporal trends in absolute abundance is needed to assess whether the goals of protected areas are being met: in our study, patterns in absolute abundance across ten years of surveys revealed trends that simple ratios of abundance did not.

Climatic forcing and larval dispersal capabilities shape the replenishment of fishes and their habitat-forming biota on a tropical coral reef

Fluctuations in marine populations often relate to the supply of recruits by oceanic currents. Variation in these currents is typically driven by large-scale changes in climate, in particular ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). The dependence on large-scale climatic changes may, however, be modified by early life history traits of marine taxa. Based on eight years of annual surveys, along 150 km of coastline, we examined how ENSO influenced abundance of juvenile fish, coral spat, and canopy-forming macroalgae. We then investigated what traits make populations of some fish families more reliant on the ENSO relationship than others. Abundance of juvenile fish and coral recruits was generally positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), higher densities recorded during La Niña years, when the ENSO-influenced Leeuwin Current is stronger and sea surface temperature higher. The relationship is typically positive and stronger among fish families with shorter pelagic larval durations and stronger swimming abilities. The relationship is also stronger at sites on the coral back reef, although the strongest of all relationships were among the lethrinids (r = .9), siganids (r = .9), and mullids (r = .8), which recruit to macroalgal meadows in the lagoon. ENSO effects on habitat seem to moderate SOI-juvenile abundance relationship. Macroalgal canopies are higher during La Niña years, providing more favorable habitat for juvenile fish and strengthening the SOI effect on juvenile abundance. Conversely, loss of coral following a La Niña-related heat wave may have compromised postsettlement survival of coral dependent species, weakening the influence of SOI on their abundance. This assessment of ENSO effects on tropical fish and habitat-forming biota and how it is mediated by functional ecology improves our ability to predict and manage changes in the replenishment of marine populations.

Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean

Episodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ~20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses.

Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park

Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally.

Coral reproduction in Western Australia

Larval production and recruitment underpin the maintenance of coral populations, but these early life history stages are vulnerable to extreme variation in physical conditions. Environmental managers aim to minimise human impacts during significant periods of larval production and recruitment on reefs, but doing so requires knowledge of the modes and timing of coral reproduction. Most corals are hermaphroditic or gonochoric, with a brooding or broadcast spawning mode of reproduction. Brooding corals are a significant component of some reefs and produce larvae over consecutive months. Broadcast spawning corals are more common and display considerable variation in their patterns of spawning among reefs. Highly synchronous spawning can occur on reefs around Australia, particularly on the Great Barrier Reef. On Australia’s remote north-west coast there have been fewer studies of coral reproduction. The recent industrial expansion into these regions has facilitated research, but the associated data are often contained within confidential reports. Here we combine information in this grey-literature with that available publicly to update our knowledge of coral reproduction in WA, for tens of thousands of corals and hundreds of species from over a dozen reefs spanning 20° of latitude. We identified broad patterns in coral reproduction, but more detailed insights were hindered by biased sampling; most studies focused on species of Acropora sampled over a few months at several reefs. Within the existing data, there was a latitudinal gradient in spawning activity among seasons, with mass spawning during autumn occurring on all reefs (but the temperate south-west). Participation in a smaller, multi-specific spawning during spring decreased from approximately one quarter of corals on the Kimberley Oceanic reefs to little participation at Ningaloo. Within these seasons, spawning was concentrated in March and/or April, and October and/or November, depending on the timing of the full moon. The timing of the full moon determined whether spawning was split over two months, which was common on tropical reefs. There were few data available for non-Acropora corals, which may have different patterns of reproduction. For example, the massive Porites seemed to spawn through spring to autumn on Kimberley Oceanic reefs and during summer in the Pilbara region, where other common corals (e.g. Turbinaria & Pavona) also displayed different patterns of reproduction to the Acropora. The brooding corals (Isopora & Seriatopora) on Kimberley Oceanic reefs appeared to planulate during many months, possibly with peaks from spring to autumn; a similar pattern is likely on other WA reefs. Gaps in knowledge were also due to the difficulty in identifying species and issues with methodology. We briefly discuss some of these issues and suggest an approach to quantifying variation in reproductive output throughout a year.

The implications of recurrent disturbances within the world's hottest coral reef

Determining how coral ecosystems are structured within extreme environments may provide insights into how coral reefs are impacted by future climate change. Benthic community structure was examined within the Persian Gulf, and adjacent Musandam and northern Oman regions across a 3-year period (2008-2011) in which all regions were exposed to major disturbances. Although there was evidence of temporal switching in coral composition within regions, communities predominantly reflected local environmental conditions and the disturbance history of each region. Gulf reefs showed little change in coral composition, being dominated by stress-tolerant Faviidae and Poritidae across the 3 years. In comparison, Musandam and Oman coral communities were comprised of stress-sensitive Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae; Oman communities showed substantial declines in such taxa and increased cover of stress-tolerant communities. Our results suggest that coral communities may persist within an increasingly disturbed future environment, albeit in a much more structurally simple configuration.

Selective Impact of Disease on Coral Communities: Outbreak of White Syndrome Causes Significant Total Mortality of Acropora Plate Corals

Coral diseases represent a significant and increasing threat to coral reefs. Among the most destructive diseases is White Syndrome (WS), which is increasing in distribution and prevalence throughout the Indo-Pacific. The aim of this study was to determine taxonomic and spatial patterns in mortality rates of corals following the 2008 outbreak of WS at Christmas Island in the eastern Indian Ocean. WS mainly affected Acropora plate corals and caused total mortality of 36% of colonies across all surveyed sites and depths. Total mortality varied between sites but was generally much greater in the shallows (0–96% of colonies at 5 m depth) compared to deeper waters (0–30% of colonies at 20 m depth). Site-specific mortality rates were a reflection of the proportion of corals affected by WS at each site during the initial outbreak and were predicted by the initial cover of live Acropora plate cover. The WS outbreak had a selective impact on the coral community. Following the outbreak, live Acropora plate coral cover at 5 m depth decreased significantly from 7.0 to 0.8%, while the cover of other coral taxa remained unchanged. Observations five years after the initial outbreak revealed that total Acropora plate cover remained low and confirmed that corals that lost all their tissue due to WS did not recover. These results demonstrate that WS represents a significant and selective form of coral mortality and highlights the serious threat WS poses to coral reefs in the Indo-Pacific.

Are we missing the boat? Current uses of long-term biological monitoring data in the evaluation and management of marine protected areas

Protected area management agencies are increasingly using management effectiveness evaluation (MEE) to better understand, learn from and improve conservation efforts around the globe. Outcome assessment is the final stage of MEE, where conservation outcomes are measured to determine whether management objectives are being achieved. When quantitative monitoring data are available, best-practice examples of outcome assessments demonstrate that data should be assessed against quantitative condition categories. Such assessments enable more transparent and repeatable integration of monitoring data into MEE, which can promote evidence-based management and improve public accountability and reporting. We interviewed key informants from marine protected area (MPA) management agencies to investigate how scientific data sources, especially long-term biological monitoring data, are currently informing conservation management. Our study revealed that even when long-term monitoring results are available, management agencies are not using them for quantitative condition assessment in MEE. Instead, many agencies conduct qualitative condition assessments, where monitoring results are interpreted using expert judgment only. Whilst we found substantial evidence for the use of long-term monitoring data in the evidence-based management of MPAs, MEE is rarely the sole mechanism that facilitates the knowledge transfer of scientific evidence to management action. This suggests that the first goal of MEE (to enable environmental accountability and reporting) is being achieved, but the second and arguably more important goal of facilitating evidence-based management is not. Given that many MEE approaches are in their infancy, recommendations are made to assist management agencies realize the full potential of long-term quantitative monitoring data for protected area evaluation and evidence-based management.