Spatial bias in the marine fossil record

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

Fossil-informed biogeographic analysis suggests Eurasian regionalization in crown Squamata during the early Jurassic

Background

Squamata (lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians) is a Triassic lineage with an extensive and complex biogeographic history, yet no large-scale study has reconstructed the ancestral range of early squamate lineages. The fossil record indicates a broadly Pangaean distribution by the end- Cretaceous, though many lineages (e.g., Paramacellodidae, Mosasauria, Polyglyphanodontia) subsequently went extinct. Thus, the origin and occupancy of extant radiations is unclear and may have been localized within Pangaea to specific plates, with potential regionalization to distinct Laurasian and Gondwanan landmasses during the Mesozoic in some groups.

Methods

We used recent tectonic models to code extant and fossil squamate distributions occurring on nine discrete plates for 9,755 species, with Jurassic and Cretaceous fossil constraints from three extinct lineages. We modeled ancestral ranges for crown Squamata from an extant-only molecular phylogeny using a suite of biogeographic models accommodating different evolutionary processes and fossil-based node constraints from known Jurassic and Cretaceous localities. We hypothesized that the best-fit models would not support a full Pangaean distribution (i.e., including all areas) for the origin of crown Squamata, but would instead show regionalization to specific areas within the fragmenting supercontinent, likely in the Northern Hemisphere where most early squamate fossils have been found.

Results

Incorporating fossil data reconstructs a localized origin within Pangaea, with early regionalization of extant lineages to Eurasia and Laurasia, while Gondwanan regionalization did not occur until the middle Cretaceous for Alethinophidia, Scolecophidia, and some crown Gekkotan lineages. While the Mesozoic history of extant squamate biogeography can be summarized as a Eurasian origin with dispersal out of Laurasia into Gondwana, their Cenozoic history is complex with multiple events (including secondary and tertiary recolonizations) in several directions. As noted by previous authors, squamates have likely utilized over-land range expansion, land-bridge colonization, and trans-oceanic dispersal. Tropical Gondwana and Eurasia hold more ancient lineages than the Holarctic (Rhineuridae being a major exception), and some asymmetries in colonization (e.g., to North America from Eurasia during the Cenozoic through Beringia) deserve additional study. Future studies that incorporate fossil branches, rather than as node constraints, into the reconstruction can be used to explore this history further.

Orthoceratoid and coleoid cephalopods from the Middle Triassic of Switzerland with an updated taxonomic framework for Triassic Orthoceratoidea

Orthoconic cephalopods are subordinate, but persistent, widespread and regionally abundant components of Triassic marine ecosystems. Here, we describe unpublished specimens from the Anisian (Middle Triassic) Besano Formation at Monte San Giorgio, Switzerland. They can be assigned to two major but unrelated lineages, the Coleoidea and the Orthoceratoidea. The orthoceratoids belong to Trematoceras elegans (Münster, 1841) and occur regularly within the Besano Formation, are uniform in size, and have few available morphological characters. In contrast, coleoids are more diverse and appear to be restricted to shorter intervals. A new coleoid is described as Ticinoteuthis chuchichaeschtli gen. et sp. nov. To better put the orthoceratoids of the Besano Formation into perspective, we also synthesise the current taxonomy of Triassic orthoceratoids on a global scale. The currently used scheme is largely outdated, with very little taxonomic progress in the past 100 years. Despite previous research showing the distinctness of Triassic orthoceratoids from Palaeozoic taxa, they are still commonly labelled as "Orthoceras" or "Michelinoceras", which are confined to the Palaeozoic. We show that Triassic orthoceratoids probably belong to a single lineage, the Trematoceratidae, which can be assigned to the Pseudorthocerida based on the embryonic shell and endosiphuncular deposits. Many Triassic species can probably be assigned to Trematoceras, but there are at least two additional Triassic orthoceratoid genera, Paratrematoceras and Pseudotemperoceras. Finally, we review the palaeobiogeographic and stratigraphic distribution of the group and outline possible future research directions.

The skeletal completeness of the Palaeozoic chondrichthyan fossil record

Chondrichthyes (sharks, rays, ratfish and their extinct relatives) originated and diversified in the Palaeozoic but are rarely preserved as articulated or partly articulated remains because of their predominantly cartilaginous endoskeletons. Consequently, their evolutionary history is perceived to be documented predominantly by isolated teeth, scales and fin spines. Here, we aim to capture and analyse the quality of the Palaeozoic chondrichthyan fossil record by using a variation of the skeletal completeness metric, which calculates how complete the skeletons of individuals are compared to estimates of their original entirety. Notably, chondrichthyan completeness is significantly lower than any published vertebrate group: low throughout the Silurian and Permian but peaking in the Devonian and Carboniferous. Scores increase to a range similar to pelycosaurs and parareptiles only when taxa identified solely from isolated teeth, scales and spines are excluded. We argue that environmental influences probably played an important role in chondrichthyan completeness. Sea level significantly negatively correlates with chondrichthyan completeness records and resembles patterns already evident in records of ichthyosaurs, plesiosaurs and sauropodomorphs. Such observed variations in completeness highlight the impact of different sampling biases on the chondrichthyan fossil record and the need to acknowledge these when inferring patterns of chondrichthyan macroevolution.

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Dots on a screen: The past, present, and future of morphometrics in the study of nonavian dinosaurs

Using morphometrics to study nonavian dinosaur fossils is a practice that predates the origin of the word "dinosaur." By the 1970s, linear morphometrics had become established as a valuable tool for analyzing intra- and interspecific variation in nonavian dinosaurs. With the advent of more recent techniques such as geometric morphometrics and more advanced statistical approaches, morphometric analyses of nonavian dinosaurs have proliferated, granting unprecedented insight into many aspects of their biology and evolution. I outline the past, present, and future of morphometrics as applied to the study of nonavian dinosaurs zeroing in on five aspects of nonavian dinosaur paleobiology where morphometrics has been widely utilized to advance our knowledge: systematics, sexual dimorphism, locomotion, macroevolution, and trackways. Morphometric methods are especially susceptible to taphonomic distortion. As such, the impact of taphonomic distortion on original fossil shape is discussed as are current and future methods for quantifying and accounting for distortion with the goal of reducing the taphonomic noise to biological signal ratio. Finally, the future of morphometrics in nonavian dinosaur paleobiology is discussed as paleobiologists move into a "virtual paleobiology" framework, whereby digital renditions of fossils are captured via methods such as photogrammetry and computed tomography. These primary data form the basis for three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometric analyses along with a slew of other forms of analyses. These 3D specimen data form part of the extended specimen and help to democratize paleobiology, unlocking the specimen from the physical museum and making the specimen available to researchers across the world.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.

Global diversity trends in the fossil record vary regionally through time and space, affecting our ability to interpret macroevolutionary history. Here, the authors propose a method to eliminate spatial sampling bias, estimate origination and extinction rates, and generate diversity estimates, applying this method to the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record.

Colonial history and global economics distort our understanding of deep-time biodiversity

Sampling biases in the fossil record distort estimates of past biodiversity. However, these biases not only reflect the geological and spatial aspects of the fossil record, but also the historical and current collation of fossil data. We demonstrate how the legacy of colonialism and socioeconomic factors, such as wealth, education and political stability, impact the global distribution of fossil data over the past 30 years. We find that a global power imbalance persists in palaeontology, with researchers in high- or upper-middle-income countries holding a monopoly over palaeontological knowledge production by contributing to 97% of fossil data. As a result, some countries or regions tend to be better sampled than others, ultimately leading to heterogeneous spatial sampling across the globe. This illustrates how efforts to mitigate sampling biases to obtain a truly representative view of past biodiversity are not disconnected from the aim of diversifying and decolonizing our discipline.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

Metabolic tradeoffs control biodiversity gradients through geological time

The latitudinal gradient of increasing marine biodiversity from the poles to the tropics is one of the most conspicuous biological patterns in modern oceans.^1-3 Low-latitude regions of the global ocean are often hotspots of animal biodiversity, yet they are set to be most critically affected by anthropogenic climate change.⁴ As ocean temperatures rise and deoxygenation proceeds in the coming centuries, the volume of aerobically viable habitat is predicted to decrease in these zones.^5,6 In contrast to the slightly asymmetrical modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient,⁷ compilations of fossil occurrences indicate peaks in biodiversity may have existed much further away from the equator in the past, with transitions between climate states hypothesized to explain this trend.^8-13 We combine a new compilation of fossil mollusc occurrences, paleotemperature proxies, and biogeographic data to reveal a non-monotonic relationship between temperature and diversity in the paleontological record over the last 145 million years. We derive a metabolic model that integrates the kinetic effects of temperature on biodiversity¹⁴ with the recently described Metabolic Index that calculates aerobic habitat availability based on the effect of temperature on hypoxia sensitivity.^5,15,16 Although factors such as coastal habitat area and homeothermy are important,^17,18 we find strong congruence between our metabolic model and our fossil and paleotemperature meta-analysis. We therefore suggest that the effects of ocean temperature on the aerobic scope of marine ectotherms is a primary driver of migrating biodiversity peaks through geologic time and will likely play a role in the restructuring of biodiversity under projected future climate scenarios.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Dinosaur diversification rates were not in decline prior to the K-Pg boundary

Determining the tempo and mode of non-avian dinosaur extinction is one of the most contentious issues in palaeobiology. Extensive disagreements remain over whether their extinction was catastrophic and geologically instantaneous or the culmination of long-term evolutionary trends. These conflicts have arisen due to numerous hierarchical sampling biases in the fossil record and differences in analytical methodology, with some studies identifying long-term declines in dinosaur richness prior to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary and others proposing continued diversification. Here, we use Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to assess the fit of 12 dinosaur phylogenies to three speciation models (null, slowdown to asymptote, downturn). We do not find strong support for the downturn model in our analyses, which suggests that dinosaur speciation rates were not in terminal decline prior to the K-Pg boundary and that the clade was still capable of generating new taxa. Nevertheless, we advocate caution in interpreting the results of such models, as they may not accurately reflect the complexities of the underlying data. Indeed, current phylogenetic methods may not provide the best test for hypotheses of dinosaur extinction; the collection of more dinosaur occurrence data will be essential to test these ideas further.

The latitudinal diversity gradient of tetrapods across the Permo-Triassic mass extinction and recovery interval

The decline in species richness from the equator to the poles is referred to as the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG). Higher equatorial diversity has been recognized for over 200 years, but the consistency of this pattern in deep time remains uncertain. Examination of spatial biodiversity patterns in the past across different global climate regimes and continental configurations can reveal how LDGs have varied over Earth history and potentially differentiate between suggested causal mechanisms. The Late Permian-Middle Triassic represents an ideal time interval for study, because it is characterized by large-scale volcanic episodes, extreme greenhouse temperatures and the most severe mass extinction event in Earth history. We examined terrestrial and marine tetrapod spatial biodiversity patterns using a database of global tetrapod occurrences. Terrestrial tetrapods exhibit a bimodal richness distribution throughout the Late Permian-Middle Triassic, with peaks in the northern low latitudes and southern mid-latitudes around 20-40° N and 60° S, respectively. Marine reptile fossils are known almost exclusively from the Northern Hemisphere in the Early and Middle Triassic, with highest diversity around 20° N. Reconstructed terrestrial LDGs contrast strongly with the generally unimodal gradients of today, potentially reflecting high global temperatures and prevailing Pangaean super-monsoonal climate system during the Permo-Triassic.

The spatial structure of Phanerozoic marine animal diversity

The global fossil record of marine animals has fueled long-standing debates about diversity change through time and the drivers of this change. However, the fossil record is not truly global. It varies considerably in geographic scope and in the sampling of environments among intervals of geological time. We account for this variability using a spatially explicit approach to quantify regional-scale diversity through the Phanerozoic. Among-region variation in diversity is comparable to variation through time, and much of this is explained by environmental factors, particularly the extent of reefs. By contrast, influential hypotheses of diversity change through time, including sustained long-term increases, have little explanatory power. Modeling the spatial structure of the fossil record transforms interpretations of Phanerozoic diversity patterns and their macroevolutionary explanations. This necessitates a refocus of deep-time diversification studies.

What do we know about the fossil record of pinnipeds? A historiographical investigation

The fossil record of pinnipeds (seals, fur seals and walruses) is globally distributed, spanning from the late Oligocene to the Holocene. This record shows a complex evolutionary history that could not otherwise be inferred from their extant relatives, including multiple radiations and iterative ecomorphological specializations among different lineages, many of which are extinct. The fossil record of pinnipeds is not uniformly represented in space and time, however, leaving some gaps in our knowledge. We performed a historiographical investigation of the published fossil record of pinnipeds based on the information available in the Paleobiology Database, with the aim to broadly characterize and evaluate it from a taxonomic, geographical and temporal perspective. We identified major trends, strengths and weaknesses of the pinniped fossil record, including potential biases that may affect our interpretations. We found that 39% of the record corresponds to extant taxa, which are essentially from the Pleistocene and Holocene. There is a larger record from the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting biases in sampling and collection effort. The record is not strongly biased by sedimentary outcrop bias. Specifically, for extinct species, nearly half of them are represented by a single occurrence and a large proportion have type specimens consisting of single isolated postcranial elements. While the pinniped fossil record may have adequate temporal and taxonomic coverage, it has a strong geographical bias and its comparability is hindered by the incompleteness of type specimens. These results should be taken into account when addressing patterns of their past diversity, evolutionary history and paleoecology.

Assembly of modern mammal community structure driven by Late Cretaceous dental evolution, rise of flowering plants, and dinosaur demise

The long-standing view that Mesozoic mammaliaforms living in dinosaur-dominated ecosystems were ecologically constrained to small size and insectivory has been challenged by astonishing fossil discoveries over the last three decades. By studying these well-preserved early mammaliaform specimens, paleontologists now agree that mammaliaforms underwent ecomorphological diversification during the Mesozoic Era. This implies that Mesozoic mammaliaform communities had ecological structure and breadth that were comparable to today's small-bodied mammalian communities. However, this hypothesis remains untested in part because the primary focus of most studies is on individual taxa. Here, we present a study quantifying the ecological structure of Mesozoic mammaliaform communities with the aim of identifying evolutionary and ecological drivers that influenced the deep-time assembly of small-bodied mammaliaform communities. We used body size, dietary preference, and locomotor mode to establish the ecospace occupation of 98 extant, small-bodied mammalian communities from diverse biomes around the world. We calculated ecological disparity and ecological richness to measure the magnitude of ecological differences among species in a community and the number of different eco-cells occupied by species of a community, respectively. This modern dataset served as a reference for analyzing five exceptionally preserved, extinct mammaliaform communities (two Jurassic, two Cretaceous, one Eocene) from Konservat-Lagerstätten. Our results indicate that the interplay of at least three factors, namely the evolution of the tribosphenic molar, the ecological rise of angiosperms, and potential competition with other vertebrates, may have been critical in shaping the ecological structure of small-bodied mammaliaform communities through time.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction

In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian [83-66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.

Diversity change during the rise of tetrapods and the impact of the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'

The Carboniferous and early Permian were critical intervals in the diversification of early four-limbed vertebrates (tetrapods), yet the major patterns of diversity and biogeography during this time remain unresolved. Previous estimates suggest that global tetrapod diversity rose continuously across this interval and that habitat fragmentation following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse' (CRC) drove increased endemism among communities. However, previous work failed to adequately account for spatial and temporal biases in sampling. Here, we reassess early tetrapod diversity and biogeography with a new global species-level dataset using sampling standardization and network biogeography methods. Our results support a tight relationship between observed richness and sampling, particularly during the Carboniferous. We found that subsampled species richness initially increased into the late Carboniferous, then decreased substantially across the Carboniferous/Permian boundary before slowly recovering in the early Permian. Our analysis of biogeography does not support the hypothesis that the CRC drove endemism; instead, we found evidence for increased cosmopolitanism in the early Permian. While a changing environment may have played a role in reducing diversity in the earliest Permian, our results suggest that the CRC was followed by increased global connectivity between communities, possibly reflecting both reduced barriers to dispersal and the diversification of amniotes.

Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification

Variation in the geographic spread of fossil localities strongly biases inferences about the evolution of biodiversity, due to the ubiquitous scaling of species richness with area. This obscures answers to key questions, such as how tetrapods attained their tremendous extant diversity. Here, we address this problem by applying sampling standardization methods to spatial regions of equal size, within a global Mesozoic-early Palaeogene data set of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods. We recover no significant increase in species richness between the Late Triassic and the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary, strongly supporting bounded diversification in Mesozoic tetrapods. An abrupt tripling of richness in the earliest Palaeogene suggests that this diversity equilibrium was reset following the K/Pg extinction. Spatial heterogeneity in sampling is among the most important biases of fossil data, but has often been overlooked. Our results indicate that controlling for variance in geographic spread in the fossil record significantly impacts inferred patterns of diversity through time.

Species richness increases with area sampled, potentially confounding biodiversity patterns from the fossil record. Here, the authors standardize spatial sampling to control for this bias and show that terrestrial vertebrate diversification was bounded during the Mesozoic but that equilibria were reset following the K/Pg extinction.

Biotic and environmental dynamics through the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous transition: evidence for protracted faunal and ecological turnover

The Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous interval represents a time of environmental upheaval and cataclysmic events, combined with disruptions to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Historically, the Jurassic/Cretaceous (J/K) boundary was classified as one of eight mass extinctions. However, more recent research has largely overturned this view, revealing a much more complex pattern of biotic and abiotic dynamics than has previously been appreciated. Here, we present a synthesis of our current knowledge of Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous events, focusing particularly on events closest to the J/K boundary. We find evidence for a combination of short-term catastrophic events, large-scale tectonic processes and environmental perturbations, and major clade interactions that led to a seemingly dramatic faunal and ecological turnover in both the marine and terrestrial realms. This is coupled with a great reduction in global biodiversity which might in part be explained by poor sampling. Very few groups appear to have been entirely resilient to this J/K boundary 'event', which hints at a 'cascade model' of ecosystem changes driving faunal dynamics. Within terrestrial ecosystems, larger, more-specialised organisms, such as saurischian dinosaurs, appear to have suffered the most. Medium-sized tetanuran theropods declined, and were replaced by larger-bodied groups, and basal eusauropods were replaced by neosauropod faunas. The ascent of paravian theropods is emphasised by escalated competition with contemporary pterosaur groups, culminating in the explosive radiation of birds, although the timing of this is obfuscated by biases in sampling. Smaller, more ecologically diverse terrestrial non-archosaurs, such as lissamphibians and mammaliaforms, were comparatively resilient to extinctions, instead documenting the origination of many extant groups around the J/K boundary. In the marine realm, extinctions were focused on low-latitude, shallow marine shelf-dwelling faunas, corresponding to a significant eustatic sea-level fall in the latest Jurassic. More mobile and ecologically plastic marine groups, such as ichthyosaurs, survived the boundary relatively unscathed. High rates of extinction and turnover in other macropredaceous marine groups, including plesiosaurs, are accompanied by the origin of most major lineages of extant sharks. Groups which occupied both marine and terrestrial ecosystems, including crocodylomorphs, document a selective extinction in shallow marine forms, whereas turtles appear to have diversified. These patterns suggest that different extinction selectivity and ecological processes were operating between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, which were ultimately important in determining the fates of many key groups, as well as the origins of many major extant lineages. We identify a series of potential abiotic candidates for driving these patterns, including multiple bolide impacts, several episodes of flood basalt eruptions, dramatic climate change, and major disruptions to oceanic systems. The J/K transition therefore, although not a mass extinction, represents an important transitional period in the co-evolutionary history of life on Earth.

Shaping the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: New Perspectives from a Synthesis of Paleobiology and Biogeography

An impediment to understanding the origin and dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the most pervasive large-scale biotic pattern on Earth-has been the tendency to focus narrowly on a single causal factor when a more synthetic, integrative approach is needed. Using marine bivalves as a model system and drawing on other systems where possible, we review paleobiologic and biogeographic support for two supposedly opposing views, that the LDG is shaped primarily by (a) local environmental factors that determine the number of species and higher taxa at a given latitude (in situ hypotheses) or (b) the entry of lineages arising elsewhere into a focal region (spatial dynamics hypotheses). Support for in situ hypotheses includes the fit of present-day diversity trends in many clades to such environmental factors as temperature and the correlation of extinction intensities in Pliocene bivalve faunas with net regional temperature changes. Support for spatial dynamics hypotheses includes the age-frequency distribution of bivalve genera across latitudes, which is consistent with an out-of-the-tropics dynamic, as are the higher species diversities in temperate southeastern Australia and southeastern Japan than in the tropical Caribbean. Thus, both in situ and spatial dynamics processes must shape the bivalve LDG and are likely to operate in other groups as well. The relative strengths of the two processes may differ among groups showing similar LDGs, but dissecting their effects will require improved methods of integrating fossil data with molecular phylogenies. We highlight several potential research directions and argue that many of the most dramatic biotic patterns, past and present, are likely to have been generated by diverse, mutually reinforcing drivers.

Near-Stasis in the Long-Term Diversification of Mesozoic Tetrapods

How did evolution generate the extraordinary diversity of vertebrates on land? Zero species are known prior to ~380 million years ago, and more than 30,000 are present today. An expansionist model suggests this was achieved by large and unbounded increases, leading to substantially greater diversity in the present than at any time in the geological past. This model contrasts starkly with empirical support for constrained diversification in marine animals, suggesting different macroevolutionary processes on land and in the sea. We quantify patterns of vertebrate standing diversity on land during the Mesozoic–early Paleogene interval, applying sample-standardization to a global fossil dataset containing 27,260 occurrences of 4,898 non-marine tetrapod species. Our results show a highly stable pattern of Mesozoic tetrapod diversity at regional and local levels, underpinned by a weakly positive, but near-zero, long-term net diversification rate over 190 million years. Species diversity of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods less than doubled over this interval, despite the origins of exceptionally diverse extant groups within mammals, squamates, amphibians, and dinosaurs. Therefore, although speciose groups of modern tetrapods have Mesozoic origins, rates of Mesozoic diversification inferred from the fossil record are slow compared to those inferred from molecular phylogenies. If high speciation rates did occur in the Mesozoic, then they seem to have been balanced by extinctions among older clades. An apparent 4-fold expansion of species richness after the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary deserves further examination in light of potential taxonomic biases, but is consistent with the hypothesis that global environmental disturbances such as mass extinction events can rapidly adjust limits to diversity by restructuring ecosystems, and suggests that the gradualistic evolutionary diversification of tetrapods was punctuated by brief but dramatic episodes of radiation.

A large-scale examination of the fossil record reveals slow diversification rates in tetrapods across the 190-million-year Mesozoic era, followed by a possible rapid and abrupt 4-fold increase in species richness after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event.

Vertebrates invaded the land more than 360 million years ago. Since then, they diversified to more than 30,000 tetrapod species today, including birds, mammals, squamates, and amphibians. The fossil record provides our best window onto diversification across such long spans of time, but is unevenly sampled. Previous studies counted observed families of fossil tetrapods and supported an expansionist model, entailing large and unbounded diversity increases through time. We applied methods that correct for differences in sampling through time and space to a comprehensive species-level database of Mesozoic to early Cenozoic fossil tetrapods. We find strong evidence that tetrapod diversity increased during the Mesozoic, but that the long-term net rate of diversification was low; species richness only doubled or tripled over 190 million years. This is enigmatic because today’s high biodiversity could not have been realised at such a slow rate. Diversification rates must have been much higher during other intervals, or rapid diversification might have been concentrated during brief episodes such as the earliest Cenozoic. Patterns of diversification on geological timescales and their relationships to hypothesised drivers such as ecological opportunity and environmental volatility must receive renewed scrutiny if we are to understand how land vertebrates and other animals attained the high biodiversity seen today.

Response of beta diversity to pulses of Ordovician-Silurian mass extinction

Ecologists are increasingly using the fossil record of mass extinction to build predictive models for the ongoing biodiversity crisis. During mass extinctions, major depletions in global (i.e., gamma) diversity may reflect decrease in alpha diversity (i.e., local assemblages support fewer taxa), and/or decrease in beta diversity (such that similar pools of taxa are common to a greater number of local areas). Contrasting the effects of extinction on alpha and beta diversity is therefore central to understanding how global richness becomes depleted over these critical events. Here we investigate the spatial effects of mass extinction by examining changes in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity in brachiopod communities over both pulses of Ordovician-Silurian extinction (-445.2 and -438.8 million years ago), which had dramatically different causal mechanisms. We furthermore reconstruct geographic range sizes for brachiopod genera to test competing models for drivers of beta diversity change. We find that: (1) alpha and beta diversity respond differently to extinction; (2) these responses differ between pulses of extinction; (3) changes in beta diversity associated with extinction are accompanied by changes in geographic range size; and (4) changes in global beta diversity were driven by the extinction of taxa with statistically small and large ranges, rather than range expansion/contraction in taxa that survive into the aftermath. A symptom of ongoing biotic crisis may therefore be the extinction of specific narrow- or wide-ranging taxa, rather than the global proliferation of opportunistic and "disaster" forms. In addition, our results illustrate that changes in beta diversity on these longer timescales may largely be dictated by emplacement and removal of barriers to dispersal. Lastly, this study reinforces the utility of the fossil record in addressing questions surrounding the role of global-scale processes (such as mass extinctions) in sculpting and assembling regional biotas.

Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.