Spatial variation as a tool for inferring temporal variation and diagnosing types of mechanisms in ecosystems

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations).

Marketization, occupational segregation, and gender earnings inequality in urban China

This article analyzes a large sample of the 2005 population mini-census data and prefecture-level statistics of China to investigate gender earnings inequality in the context of economic marketization, paying special attention to the changing role of occupational segregation in the process. We approximate marketization by employment sectors and also construct an index of marketization at the prefecture level. Results show that, despite the tremendous economic growth, marketization has exacerbated gender earnings inequality in urban China's labor markets. Gender earnings inequality is the smallest in government/public institutions, followed by public enterprises, and then private enterprises. The gender inequality also increases with the prefecture's level of marketization. Multilevel analyses show that occupational segregation plays an important role in affecting gender earnings inequality: the greater the occupational segregation, the more disadvantaged women are relative to men in earnings in a prefecture's labor market. Moreover, the impact of occupational segregation on gender earnings inequality increases with the prefectural level of marketization. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of gender earnings inequality and have important implications for policy to promote gender equality in urban China.

Variance and variability, uncovering an underappreciated component of reproductive isolation

Estimating the fitness of line crosses has been a key element in studies of inbreeding depression, hybridization, and speciation. Fitness values are typically compared using differences in the arithmetic mean of a fitness component between types of crosses. One aspect of fitness that is often overlooked is variance in offspring fitness over time. In the majority of studies, ignoring this aspect of fitness is unavoidable because it is impossible to estimate variance in offspring fitness over long time periods. Here, I describe a method of estimating variance in offspring fitness by substituting spatial variation for temporal variation and provide an empirical example. The method is based on Levene's test of homogeneity of variances. It is implemented by quantifying differences in residual variation among cross types. In a previous study, I performed crosses between populations of the annual plant Diodia teres and quantified hybrid fitness. In this study, another component of isolation and heterosis was revealed when considering variance in offspring fitness. When taking into account variance in offspring fitness using geometric mean fitness as the measure of performance, hybrids between populations from different habitats showed less heterosis than when calculating fitness based on arithmetic mean. This study demonstrates that variance in offspring fitness can be an important aspect of fitness that should be measured more frequently.

Plant diversity and ecosystem multifunctionality peak at intermediate levels of woody cover in global drylands

AIM

The global spread of woody plants into grasslands is predicted to increase over the coming century. While there is general agreement regarding the anthropogenic causes of this phenomenon, its ecological consequences are less certain. We analyzed how woody vegetation of differing cover affects plant diversity (richness and evenness) and multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality) in global drylands, and how this changes with aridity.

LOCATION

224 dryland sites from all continents except Antarctica widely differing in their environmental conditions (from arid to dry-subhumid sites) and woody covers (from 0 to 100%).

METHODS

Using a standardized field survey, we measured the cover, richness and evenness of perennial vegetation. At each site, we measured 14 ecosystem functions related to soil fertility and the build-up of nutrient pools. These functions are critical for maintaining ecosystem function in drylands.

RESULTS

Species richness and ecosystem multifunctionality were strongly influenced by woody vegetation, with both variables peaking at relative woody covers (RWC) of 41-60%. This relationship shifted with aridity. We observed linear positive effects of RWC in dry-subhumid sites. These positive trends shifted to hump-shaped RWC-diversity and multifunctionality relationships under semiarid environments. Finally, hump-shaped (richness, evenness) or linear negative (multifunctionality) effects of RWC were found under the most arid conditions.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Plant diversity and multifunctionality peaked at intermediate levels of woody cover, although this relationship became increasingly positive under wetter environments. This comprehensive study accounts for multiple ecosystem attributes across a range of woody covers and environmental conditions. Our results help us to reconcile contrasting views of woody encroachment found in current literature and can be used to improve predictions of the likely effects of encroachment on biodiversity and ecosystem services.