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Alie MS, Negesse Y. Machine learning prediction of adolescent HIV testing services in Ethiopia. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1341279. [PMID: 38560439 PMCID: PMC10981275 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1341279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Despite endeavors to achieve the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 fast track targets established in 2014 for HIV prevention, progress has fallen short. Hence, it is imperative to identify factors that can serve as predictors of an adolescent's HIV status. This identification would enable the implementation of targeted screening interventions and the enhancement of healthcare services. Our primary objective was to identify these predictors to facilitate the improvement of HIV testing services for adolescents in Ethiopia. Methods A study was conducted by utilizing eight different machine learning techniques to develop models using demographic and health data from 4,502 adolescent respondents. The dataset consisted of 31 variables and variable selection was done using different selection methods. To train and validate the models, the data was randomly split into 80% for training and validation, and 20% for testing. The algorithms were evaluated, and the one with the highest accuracy and mean f1 score was selected for further training using the most predictive variables. Results The J48 decision tree algorithm has proven to be remarkably successful in accurately detecting HIV positivity, outperforming seven other algorithms with an impressive accuracy rate of 81.29% and a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of 86.3%. The algorithm owes its success to its remarkable capability to identify crucial predictor features, with the top five being age, knowledge of HIV testing locations, age at first sexual encounter, recent sexual activity, and exposure to family planning. Interestingly, the model's performance witnessed a significant improvement when utilizing only twenty variables as opposed to including all variables. Conclusion Our research findings indicate that the J48 decision tree algorithm, when combined with demographic and health-related data, is a highly effective tool for identifying potential predictors of HIV testing. This approach allows us to accurately predict which adolescents are at a high risk of infection, enabling the implementation of targeted screening strategies for early detection and intervention. To improve the testing status of adolescents in the country, we recommend considering demographic factors such as age, age at first sexual encounter, exposure to family planning, recent sexual activity, and other identified predictors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melsew Setegn Alie
- Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Mizan-Tepi University, Mizan-Aman, Ethiopia
| | - Yilkal Negesse
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Debre-Markos University, Gojjam, Ethiopia
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Popoola VO, Kagaayi J, Ssekasanvu J, Ssekubugu R, Kigozi G, Ndyanabo A, Nalugoda F, Chang LW, Lutalo T, Tobian AAR, Kabatesi D, Alamo S, Mills LA, Kigozi G, Wawer MJ, Santelli J, Gray RH, Reynolds SJ, Serwadda D, Lessler J, Grabowski MK. HIV epidemiologic trends among occupational groups in Rakai, Uganda: A population-based longitudinal study, 1999-2016. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002891. [PMID: 38377078 PMCID: PMC10878534 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
Certain occupations have been associated with heightened risk of HIV acquisition and spread in sub-Saharan Africa, including female bar and restaurant work and male transportation work. However, data on changes in population prevalence of HIV infection and HIV incidence within occupations following mass scale-up of African HIV treatment and prevention programs is very limited. We evaluated prospective data collected between 1999 and 2016 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based study of 15- to 49-year-old persons in Uganda. Adjusted prevalence risk ratios for overall, treated, and untreated, prevalent HIV infection, and incidence rate ratios for HIV incidence with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression to assess changes in HIV outcomes by occupation. Analyses were stratified by gender. There were 33,866 participants, including 19,113 (56%) women. Overall, HIV seroprevalence declined in most occupational subgroups among men, but increased or remained mostly stable among women. In contrast, prevalence of untreated HIV substantially declined between 1999 and 2016 in most occupations, irrespective of gender, including by 70% among men (12.3 to 4.2%; adjPRR = 0.30; 95%CI:0.23-0.41) and by 78% among women (14.7 to 4.0%; adjPRR = 0.22; 95%CI:0.18-0.27) working in agriculture, the most common self-reported primary occupation. Exceptions included men working in transportation. HIV incidence similarly declined in most occupations, but there were no reductions in incidence among female bar and restaurant workers, women working in local crafts, or men working in transportation. In summary, untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence have declined within most occupational groups in Uganda. However, women working in bars/restaurants and local crafts and men working in transportation continue to have a relatively high burden of untreated HIV and HIV incidence, and as such, should be considered priority populations for HIV programming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor O. Popoola
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Joseph Kagaayi
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
- Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Joseph Ssekasanvu
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | | | | | | | | | - Larry W. Chang
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Tom Lutalo
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Aaron A. R. Tobian
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Donna Kabatesi
- Division of Global HIV and TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Uganda, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Stella Alamo
- Division of Global HIV and TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Uganda, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Lisa A. Mills
- Division of Global HIV and TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Uganda, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Maria J. Wawer
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - John Santelli
- Department of Population and Family Health and Pediatrics, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Ronald H. Gray
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Steven J. Reynolds
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - David Serwadda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
- Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Epidemiology, UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
- Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - M. Kate Grabowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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3
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Hoffman S, Zhang A, Nguyen N, Tsong R, Chen I, Wei Y, Lutalo T, Nalugoda F, Kennedy CE, Grabowski MK, Santelli J. Incident HIV Infection Among Young Men Associated With Female Sexual Partner Types Identified Through Latent Class Analysis, Rakai, Uganda. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2022; 90:124-131. [PMID: 35125472 PMCID: PMC9203866 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sexual partner characteristics are important determinants of HIV acquisition, but little is known about partner types of young men in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS Sexually active men aged 15-24 years from 5 rounds (2005-2013) of the Rakai Community Cohort Study in Uganda reported characteristics of up to 4 past-year female partners. Partner types were identified using latent class analysis. HIV incidence rates (IRs) were calculated by partner-type combinations, and individual-level risk adjusted IR ratios (aIRRs) relative to the lowest incidence type were estimated using the Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS Young men (N = 1771) reported 4539 past-year female sexual partners. Three partner types were identified: type A: noncohabiting, student, medium duration partnerships; type B: cohabiting, nonstudent, longer duration partnerships; and type C: noncohabiting, nonstudent shorter duration partnerships. Type C partners engaged in the most HIV-related risk behaviors. Many men (29%) had more than 1 partner type/round. IR overall was 9.8/1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.7 to 20.6]. IR was 4.0 (95% CI: 1.2 to 12.7) for men with type A partners alone (41% of men). Relative to them, IR for those with type B partners alone (25%) was not significantly different. Men with type C partners alone (5%) had higher risk (aIRR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.0 to 9.9), as did men with >1 partner type, including men with both type A and type B partners (12%; aIRR = 6.3; 95% CI: 2.5 to 15.9) and men with type C and other partner types (17%; aIRR = 4.3; 95% CI: 1.7 to 10.8). CONCLUSIONS Partner-type combination was strongly associated with HIV incidence; type C partners and having more than 1 partner type were the riskiest patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susie Hoffman
- HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies at the New York State Psychiatric Institute and Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, United States
- Department of Epidemiology Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
| | - Adina Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
| | - Nadia Nguyen
- HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies at the New York State Psychiatric Institute and Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, United States
| | - Rachel Tsong
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
| | - Ivy Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
| | - Ying Wei
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
| | - Tom Lutalo
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | | | - Caitlin E. Kennedy
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - M. Kate Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, United States
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - John Santelli
- Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, United States
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4
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Kreniske P, Nalugoda F, Chen I, Huang R, Wei Y, Chang L, Ssekubugu R, Lutalo T, Kigozi G, Kagaayi J, Sewankambo N, Grabowski MK, Gray R, Serwadda D, Santelli J. Brief Report: Mobile Phones, Sexual Behaviors, and HIV Incidence in Rakai, Uganda, From 2010 to 2018. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2022; 89:361-365. [PMID: 34974468 PMCID: PMC8881316 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest HIV incidence and prevalence in the world. In the past decade, mobile phone ownership has doubled, affecting social and sexual practices. Using longitudinal follow-up data, this study examined whether mobile phone ownership was associated with sexual behaviors and HIV incidence for youth and adults. METHODS The Rakai Community Cohort Study gathers demographic and sexual health information and conducts HIV testing among an open cohort in southcentral Uganda every 12-18 months. RESULTS Of the 10,618 participants, 58% owned a mobile phone, 69% lived in rural locations, and 77% were sexually active. Analyses were adjusted for time, location, religion, and socioeconomic status. Phone ownership was associated with increased odds of ever having had sex act for 15- to 19-year-olds [men adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.78 to 2.52; women AOR: 3.20, 95% CI: 2.45 to 4.17]. Among sexually active participants, owning a phone was associated with increased odds of having 2 or more concurrent sex partners (15- to 24-year-old men AOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.34 to 2.32; 25 to 49-year-old men: AOR 1.81, 95% CI: 1.54 to 2.13; 25- to 49-year-old women AOR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.32 to 2.49). For men, phone ownership was associated with increased odds of circumcision (15- to 24-year-old men AOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.41; 25- to 49-year-old men AOR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.24). Phone ownership was not associated with HIV incidence. CONCLUSION Although mobile phone ownership was associated with sexual risk behaviors, it was not associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Research should continue exploring how phones can be used for reducing sexual health risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Kreniske
- HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Columbia University, New York, NY
- Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
| | - Fred Nalugoda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo and Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Ivy Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
| | - Rui Huang
- Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
| | - Ying Wei
- Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
| | - Larry Chang
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | | | - Tom Lutalo
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo and Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Godfrey Kigozi
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo and Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Joseph Kagaayi
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo and Entebbe, Uganda
| | | | | | - Ronald Gray
- Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; and
| | | | - John Santelli
- Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
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5
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Roberts DA, Cuadros D, Vandormael A, Gareta D, Barnabas RV, Herbst K, Tanser F, Akullian A. Predicting the Risk of Hiv-1 Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 75:1224-1231. [PMID: 35100612 PMCID: PMC9525068 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Accurate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment can guide optimal HIV prevention. We evaluated the performance of risk prediction models incorporating geospatial measures. Methods We developed and validated HIV risk prediction models in a population-based cohort in South Africa. Individual-level covariates included demographic and sexual behavior measures, and geospatial covariates included community HIV prevalence and viral load estimates. We trained models on 2012–2015 data using LASSO Cox models and validated predictions in 2016–2019 data. We compared full models to simpler models restricted to only individual-level covariates or only age and geospatial covariates. We compared the spatial distribution of predicted risk to that of high incidence areas (≥ 3/100 person-years). Results Our analysis included 19 556 individuals contributing 44 871 person-years and 1308 seroconversions. Incidence among the highest predicted risk quintile using the full model was 6.6/100 person-years (women) and 2.8/100 person-years (men). Models using only age group and geospatial covariates had similar performance (women: AUROC = 0.65, men: AUROC = 0.71) to the full models (women: AUROC = 0.68, men: AUROC = 0.72). Geospatial models more accurately identified high incidence regions than individual-level models; 20% of the study area with the highest predicted risk accounted for 60% of the high incidence areas when using geospatial models but only 13% using models with only individual-level covariates. Conclusions Geospatial models with no individual measures other than age group predicted HIV risk nearly as well as models that included detailed behavioral data. Geospatial models may help guide HIV prevention efforts to individuals and geographic areas at highest risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Allen Roberts
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Diego Cuadros
- Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Dickman Gareta
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Ruanne V Barnabas
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Kobus Herbst
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,DSI-MRC South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN), Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Lincoln International Institute for Rural Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, United Kingdom.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Adam Akullian
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.,Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, USA
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6
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Jia KM, Eilerts H, Edun O, Lam K, Howes A, Thomas ML, Eaton JW. Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Int AIDS Soc 2022; 25:e25861. [PMID: 35001515 PMCID: PMC8743366 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Several HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritized HIV prevention in sub‐Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (1) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (2) review inclusion of community‐level HIV risk in predictive models and (3) examine predictive performance. Methods We searched nine databases from inception until 15 February 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub‐Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random‐effects meta‐analysis to summarize hazard ratios and the area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC). Results From 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomized‐controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% confidence interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above 25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV‐2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW, only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n = 3). Community‐level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but was only considered in 3 of 11 multi‐site studies. The AUC‐ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC‐ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I2: 64.02%). Conclusions Younger age, non‐cohabiting and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low‐to‐moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalizability, limiting their programmatic utility. Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to “at‐risk” individuals and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes. PROSPERO Number CRD42021236367
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M Jia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Hallie Eilerts
- Department of Population Health, The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Olanrewaju Edun
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kevin Lam
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Adam Howes
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Matthew L Thomas
- Joint Centre for Excellence in Environmental Intelligence, University of Exeter & Met Office, Exeter, UK
| | - Jeffrey W Eaton
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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7
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Derivation of an HIV Risk Score for African Women Who Engage in Sex Work. AIDS Behav 2021; 25:3292-3302. [PMID: 33861378 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-021-03235-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/13/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
No tool exists to stratify HIV risk in contemporary African female sex worker (FSW) populations. Data from a cohort of HIV-negative FSWs in Mombasa, Kenya from 2010 to 2017 were used to conduct a survival analysis assessing predictors of HIV infection. Stepwise regression was used to construct a multivariable model that formed the basis for the score. Seventeen HIV infections occurred over 1247 person-years of follow-up contributed by 670 women. Using depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), having a curable sexually transmitted infection (STI), and being married contributed points to the score. HIV incidence was 0.85/100 person-years in a lower-risk group and 3.10/100 person-years in a higher-risk group. In a cohort with overall HIV incidence < 1.50/100 person-years, this risk score identified a subgroup of FSWs with HIV incidence > 3.00/100 person-years, which is the threshold used by the World Health Organization for initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). If validated in an external population, this tool could be useful for targeted PrEP promotion among higher-risk FSWs.
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8
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Hines JZ, Sachathep K, Pals S, Davis SM, Toledo C, Bronson M, Parekh B, Carrasco M, Xaba S, Mandisarisa J, Kamobyi R, Chituwo O, Kirungi WL, Alamo S, Kabuye G, Awor AC, Mmbando S, Simbeye D, Aupokolo MA, Zemburuka B, Nyirenda R, Msungama W, Tarumbiswa T, Manda R, Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha H, Kiggundu V, Thomas AG, Watts H, Voetsch AC, Williams DB. HIV Incidence by Male Circumcision Status From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys-Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2021; 87:S89-S96. [PMID: 33765683 PMCID: PMC11187824 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Male circumcision (MC) offers men lifelong partial protection from heterosexually acquired HIV infection. The impact of MC on HIV incidence has not been quantified in nationally representative samples. Data from the population-based HIV impact assessments were used to compare HIV incidence by MC status in countries implementing voluntary medical MC (VMMC) programs. METHODS Data were pooled from population-based HIV impact assessments conducted in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe from 2015 to 2017. Incidence was measured using a recent infection testing algorithm and analyzed by self-reported MC status distinguishing between medical and nonmedical MC. Country, marital status, urban setting, sexual risk behaviors, and mean population HIV viral load among women as an indicator of treatment scale-up were included in a random-effects logistic regression model using pooled survey weights. Analyses were age stratified (15-34 and 35-59 years). Annualized incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and incidence differences were calculated between medically circumcised and uncircumcised men. RESULTS Men 15-34 years reporting medical MC had lower HIV incidence than uncircumcised men [0.04% (95% CI: 0.00% to 0.10%) versus 0.34% (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.57%), respectively; P value = 0.01]; whereas among men 35-59 years, there was no significant incidence difference [1.36% (95% CI: 0.32% to 2.39%) versus 0.55% (95% CI: 0.14% to 0.67%), respectively; P value = 0.14]. DISCUSSION Medical MC was associated with lower HIV incidence in men aged 15-34 years in nationally representative surveys in Africa. These findings are consistent with the expected ongoing VMMC program impact and highlight the importance of VMMC for the HIV response in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonas Z. Hines
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Karampreet Sachathep
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | - Sherri Pals
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Stephanie M. Davis
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Carlos Toledo
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Megan Bronson
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Bharat Parekh
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Maria Carrasco
- Office of HIV and AIDS, U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, District of Columbia
| | | | - John Mandisarisa
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Omega Chituwo
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Stella Alamo
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Geoffrey Kabuye
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Anna Colletar Awor
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Susan Mmbando
- National AIDS Control Programme, Ministry of Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly and Children, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Daimon Simbeye
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Mekondjo A. Aupokolo
- National HIV/AIDS, STI and Hepatitis Control Program, Ministry of Health and Social Services, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Brigitte Zemburuka
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Windhoek, Namibia
| | | | - Wezi Msungama
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | | | - Robert Manda
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Maseru, Lesotho
| | - Harriet Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mbabane, Eswatini
- Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York
| | - Valerian Kiggundu
- Office of HIV and AIDS, U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, District of Columbia
| | - Anne G. Thomas
- Defense Health Agency, U.S. Department of Defense, San Diego, California
| | - Heather Watts
- Office of Global AIDS Coordinator, Washington, District of Columbia
| | - Andrew C. Voetsch
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Dan B. Williams
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
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Use of machine learning techniques to identify HIV predictors for screening in sub-Saharan Africa. BMC Med Res Methodol 2021; 21:159. [PMID: 34332540 PMCID: PMC8325403 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-021-01346-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim HIV prevention measures in sub-Saharan Africa are still short of attaining the UNAIDS 90–90-90 fast track targets set in 2014. Identifying predictors for HIV status may facilitate targeted screening interventions that improve health care. We aimed at identifying HIV predictors as well as predicting persons at high risk of the infection. Method We applied machine learning approaches for building models using population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) data for 41,939 male and 45,105 female respondents with 30 and 40 variables respectively from four countries in sub-Saharan countries. We trained and validated the algorithms on 80% of the data and tested on the remaining 20% where we rotated around the left-out country. An algorithm with the best mean f1 score was retained and trained on the most predictive variables. We used the model to identify people living with HIV and individuals with a higher likelihood of contracting the disease. Results Application of XGBoost algorithm appeared to significantly improve identification of HIV positivity over the other five algorithms by f1 scoring mean of 90% and 92% for males and females respectively. Amongst the eight most predictor features in both sexes were: age, relationship with family head, the highest level of education, highest grade at that school level, work for payment, avoiding pregnancy, age at the first experience of sex, and wealth quintile. Model performance using these variables increased significantly compared to having all the variables included. We identified five males and 19 females individuals that would require testing to find one HIV positive individual. We also predicted that 4·14% of males and 10.81% of females are at high risk of infection. Conclusion Our findings provide a potential use of the XGBoost algorithm with socio-behavioural-driven data at substantially identifying HIV predictors and predicting individuals at high risk of infection for targeted screening. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01346-2.
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Balzer LB, Havlir DV, Kamya MR, Chamie G, Charlebois ED, Clark TD, Koss CA, Kwarisiima D, Ayieko J, Sang N, Kabami J, Atukunda M, Jain V, Camlin CS, Cohen CR, Bukusi EA, Van Der Laan M, Petersen ML. Machine Learning to Identify Persons at High-Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Acquisition in Rural Kenya and Uganda. Clin Infect Dis 2020; 71:2326-2333. [PMID: 31697383 PMCID: PMC7904068 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz1096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In generalized epidemic settings, strategies are needed to prioritize individuals at higher risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition for prevention services. We used population-level HIV testing data from rural Kenya and Uganda to construct HIV risk scores and assessed their ability to identify seroconversions. METHODS During 2013-2017, >75% of residents in 16 communities in the SEARCH study were tested annually for HIV. In this population, we evaluated 3 strategies for using demographic factors to predict the 1-year risk of HIV seroconversion: membership in ≥1 known "risk group" (eg, having a spouse living with HIV), a "model-based" risk score constructed with logistic regression, and a "machine learning" risk score constructed with the Super Learner algorithm. We hypothesized machine learning would identify high-risk individuals more efficiently (fewer persons targeted for a fixed sensitivity) and with higher sensitivity (for a fixed number targeted) than either other approach. RESULTS A total of 75 558 persons contributed 166 723 person-years of follow-up; 519 seroconverted. Machine learning improved efficiency. To achieve a fixed sensitivity of 50%, the risk-group strategy targeted 42% of the population, the model-based strategy targeted 27%, and machine learning targeted 18%. Machine learning also improved sensitivity. With an upper limit of 45% targeted, the risk-group strategy correctly classified 58% of seroconversions, the model-based strategy 68%, and machine learning 78%. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning improved classification of individuals at risk of HIV acquisition compared with a model-based approach or reliance on known risk groups and could inform targeting of prevention strategies in generalized epidemic settings. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION NCT01864603.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura B Balzer
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Diane V Havlir
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Moses R Kamya
- Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
- School of Medicine, Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Gabriel Chamie
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Edwin D Charlebois
- Division of Prevention Science, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Tamara D Clark
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Catherine A Koss
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | | | - James Ayieko
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Norton Sang
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jane Kabami
- Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Vivek Jain
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Carol S Camlin
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Craig R Cohen
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Bukusi
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Mark Van Der Laan
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Maya L Petersen
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
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Cell Phones, Sexual Behaviors and HIV Prevalence in Rakai, Uganda: A Cross Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Data. AIDS Behav 2020; 24:1574-1584. [PMID: 31520238 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-019-02665-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Cell phones have increased communication and connection across the globe and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa-with potential consequences for the HIV epidemic. We examined the association among ownership of cell phones, sexual behaviors (number of sexual partners, alcohol use before sex, inconsistent condom use), and HIV prevalence. Data were from four rounds (2010-2016) of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (N = 58,275). Sexual behaviors and HIV prevalence were compared between people who owned a cell phone to people who did not own a cell phone. We stratified analysis by younger (15-24 years) and older (25+ years) age groups and by gender. Using logistic regression and after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, we found cell phone ownership was independently associated with increased odds of having two or more sexual partners in the past 12 months across age and gender groups (young men AOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.47-1.90; young women AOR 1.28 95% CI 1.08-1.53; older men AOR 1.54 95% CI 1.41-1.69; older women AOR 1.44 95% CI 1.26-1.65). Interestingly, young men who owned cell phones had decreased odds of using condoms inconsistently (AOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.75). For young women, cell phone ownership was associated with increased odds of using alcohol before sex (AOR 1.38 95% CI 1.17-1.63) and increased odds of inconsistent condom use (AOR 1.40, 95% 1.17-1.67). After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, only young women who owned cell phones had increased odds of being HIV positive (AOR 1.27 95% CI 1.07-1.50). This association was not mediated by sexual behaviors (Adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behaviors AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.46). While cell phone ownership appears to be associated with increased HIV risk for young women, we also see a potential opportunity for future cell phone-based health interventions.
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Development and external-validation of a nomogram for predicting the survival of hospitalised HIV/AIDS patients based on a large study cohort in western China. Epidemiol Infect 2020; 148:e84. [PMID: 32234104 PMCID: PMC7189350 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820000758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the survival of hospitalised human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients (hospitalised person living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs)). Hospitalised PLWHAs (n = 3724) between January 2012 and December 2014 were enrolled in the training cohort. HIV-infected inpatients (n = 1987) admitted in 2015 were included as the external-validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to perform data dimension reduction and select the optimal predictors. The nomogram incorporated 11 independent predictors, including occupation, antiretroviral therapy, pneumonia, tuberculosis, Talaromyces marneffei, hypertension, septicemia, anaemia, respiratory failure, hypoproteinemia and electrolyte disturbances. The Likelihood χ2 statistic of the model was 516.30 (P = 0.000). Integrated Brier Score was 0.076 and Brier scores of the nomogram at the 10-day and 20-day time points were 0.046 and 0.071, respectively. The area under the curves for receiver operating characteristic were 0.819 and 0.828, and precision-recall curves were 0.242 and 0.378 at two time points. Calibration plots and decision curve analysis in the two sets showed good performance and a high net benefit of nomogram. In conclusion, the nomogram developed in the current study has relatively high calibration and is clinically useful. It provides a convenient and useful tool for timely clinical decision-making and the risk management of hospitalised PLWHAs.
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Wang L, Wan G, Shen Y, Zhao Z, Lin L, Zhang W, Song R, Tian D, Wen J, Zhao Y, Yu X, Liu L, Feng Y, Liu Y, Qiang C, Duan J, Ma Y, Liu Y, Liu Y, Chen C, Ge Z, Li X, Chen Z, Fan T, Li W. A nomogram to predict mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome at the early stage-A multicenter study in China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007829. [PMID: 31765414 PMCID: PMC6934327 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2019] [Revised: 12/27/2019] [Accepted: 10/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) caused by the SFTS virus is an emerging infectious disease that was first identified in the rural areas of China in 2011. Severe cases often result in death due to multiple organ failure. To date, there are still numerous problems remain unresolved in SFTS, including unclear pathogenesis, lack of specific treatment, and no effective vaccines available. Aim To analyze the clinical information of patients with early-stage SFTS and to establish a nomogram for the mortality risk. Methods Between April 2011 and December 2018, data on consecutive patients who were diagnosed with SFTS were prospectively collected from five medical centers distributed in central and northeastern China. Multivariable Cox analyses were used to identify the factors independently associated with mortality. A nomogram for mortality was established using those factors. Results During the study period, 429 consecutive patients were diagnosed with SFTS at the early stage of the disease (within 7 days of fever), among whom 69 (16.1%) died within 28 days. The multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that low lymphocyte percentage, early-stage encephalopathy, and elevated concentration of serum LDH and BUN were independent risk factors for fatal outcomes. Received-operating characteristic curves for 7-, 14-, and 28-days survival had AUCs of 0.944 (95% CI: 0.920–0.968), 0.924 (95% CI: 0.896–0.953), and 0.924 (95% CI: 0.895–0.952), respectively. Among low-risk patients, 6 patients died (2.2%). Among moderate-risk patients, 25 patients died (24.0%, hazard ratio (HR) = 11.957). Among high-risk patients, the mortality rate was 69.1% (HR = 57.768). Conclusion We established a simple and practical clinical scoring system, through which we can identify critically ill patients and provide intensive medical intervention for patients as soon as possible to reduce mortality. We established a SFTS nomogram scoring system, which is the first nomogram for this disease. According to this nomogram, patients were divided into three levels of mortality risk: low, moderate, and high. This scoring system is helpful to identify critically ill patients, allowing for early intervention and intensive care, which may contribute to reducing the mortality of SFTS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Wang
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Gang Wan
- Statistics Room, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yi Shen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Dandong Infectious Disease Hospital, Dandong, China
| | - Zhenghua Zhao
- Department of Infectious Disease, Taian City Central Hospital, Taian, China
| | - Ling Lin
- Department of Infectious Disease, Yantai City Hospital for Infectious Disease, Yantai, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Rui Song
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Di Tian
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Wen
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yongxiang Zhao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Dandong Infectious Disease Hospital, Dandong, China
| | - Xiaoli Yu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Dandong Infectious Disease Hospital, Dandong, China
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease, Taian City Central Hospital, Taian, China
| | - Yang Feng
- Department of Infectious Disease, Taian City Central Hospital, Taian, China
| | - Yuanni Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease, Yantai City Hospital for Infectious Disease, Yantai, China
| | - Chunqian Qiang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Yantai City Hospital for Infectious Disease, Yantai, China
| | - Jianping Duan
- Department of Infectious Disease, Qing Dao No. 6 People's Hospital, Qingdao, China
| | - Yanli Ma
- Department of Infectious Disease, Qing Dao No. 6 People's Hospital, Qingdao, China
| | - Ying Liu
- Clinical Laboratory, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yanan Liu
- Clinical Laboratory, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Chong Chen
- Graduate School of Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Ziruo Ge
- Graduate School of Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xingwang Li
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhihai Chen
- Center of Infectious Disease, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Tianli Fan
- Department of Infectious Disease, Qing Dao No. 6 People's Hospital, Qingdao, China
| | - Wei Li
- Interventional Therapy Oncology, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
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Kreniske P, Grilo S, Nakyanjo N, Nalugoda F, Wolfe J, Santelli JS. Narrating the Transition to Adulthood for Youth in Uganda: Leaving School, Mobility, Risky Occupations, and HIV. HEALTH EDUCATION & BEHAVIOR 2019; 46:550-558. [PMID: 30791714 DOI: 10.1177/1090198119829197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
School enrollment, mobility, and occupation are each important factors to consider when examining HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection risk among youth in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an analysis of narrative life histories from 30 HIV-positive and 30 HIV-negative youth (aged 15-24 years), matched on gender, age, and village and purposively selected and interviewed from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, this article shows the complex connection between leaving school, mobility, and occupation with implications for HIV risk. We identified a pattern of risk factors that was present in many more HIV-positive than HIV-negative youth life stories. These HIV-positive youth shared a similar pathway during their transition to adulthood: After leaving school, they moved in search of occupations; they then engaged in risky occupations before eventually returning to their home village. Linking the lines of inquiry on school enrollment, mobility, and risky occupations, our findings have important implications for adolescent health research, practice, and policy in Uganda and across sub-Saharan Africa and the developing world.
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Wahome E, Thiong’o AN, Mwashigadi G, Chirro O, Mohamed K, Gichuru E, Mwambi J, Price MA, Graham SM, Sanders EJ. An Empiric Risk Score to Guide PrEP Targeting Among MSM in Coastal Kenya. AIDS Behav 2018; 22:35-44. [PMID: 29767324 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-018-2141-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Men who have sex with men (MSM), who have heterogeneous HIV-acquisition risks are not specifically targeted in Kenyan pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) guidelines. We used data from an open cohort, which followed 753 initially HIV-negative MSM participants for more than 1378.5 person-years, to develop an empiric risk score for targeting PrEP delivery. Independent predictors of incident HIV-1 infection in this cohort were an age of 18-24 years, having only male sex partners, having receptive anal intercourse, having any unprotected sex, and having group sex. Poisson model coefficients were used to assign a numeric score to each statistically significant predictor. A risk score of ≥ 1 corresponded to an HIV-1 incidence of ≥ 2.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-4.1] and identified 81.3% of the cohort participants as being at high risk for HIV-1 acquisition. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.80). This empiric risk score may help Kenyan health care providers to assess HIV-1 acquisition risk and encourage PrEP uptake by high-risk MSM.
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Mayaphi SH, Martin DJ, Olorunju SAS, Williams BG, Quinn TC, Stoltz AC. High risk exposure to HIV among sexually active individuals who tested negative on rapid HIV Tests in the Tshwane District of South Africa-The importance of behavioural prevention measures. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0192357. [PMID: 29394288 PMCID: PMC5796711 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2017] [Accepted: 01/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the prevalence of HIV risk behaviour among sexually active HIV sero-negative individuals in the Tshwane district of South Africa (SA). METHODS Demographic and HIV risk behaviour data were collected on a questionnaire from participants of a cross-sectional study that screened for early HIV infection using pooled nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). The study enrolled individuals who tested negative on rapid HIV tests performed at five HIV counseling and testing (HCT) clinics, which included four antenatal clinics and one general HCT clinic. RESULTS The study enrolled 9547 predominantly black participants (96.6%) with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 23-31). There were 1661 non-pregnant and 7886 pregnant participants largely enrolled from the general and antenatal HCT clinics, respectively. NAAT detected HIV infection in 61 participants (0.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-0.8) in the whole study. A high proportion of study participants, 62.8% and 63.0%, were unaware of their partner's HIV status; and also had high prevalence, 88.5% and 99.5%, of recent unprotected sex in the general and pregnant population, respectively. Consistent use of condoms was associated with protection against HIV infection in the general population. Trends of higher odds for HIV infection were observed with most demographic and HIV risk factors at univariate analysis, however, multivariate analysis did not show statistical significance for almost all these factors. A significantly lower risk of HIV infection was observed in circumcised men (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS These data show that a large segment of sexually active people in the Tshwane district of SA have high risk exposure to HIV. The detection of newly diagnosed HIV infections in all study clinics reflects a wide distribution of individuals who are capable of sustaining HIV transmission in the setting where HIV risk behaviour is highly prevalent. A questionnaire that captures HIV risk behaviour would be useful during HIV counselling and testing to ensure that there is a systematic way of identifying HIV risk factors and that counselling is optimised for each individual. HIV risk behaviour surveillance could be used to inform relevant HIV prevention interventions that could be implemented at a community or population level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simnikiwe H. Mayaphi
- Department of Medical Virology, University of Pretoria, City of Tshwane, South Africa
- National Health Laboratory Service-Tshwane Academic Division (NHLS-TAD), City of Tshwane, South Africa
| | - Desmond J. Martin
- Department of Medical Virology, University of Pretoria, City of Tshwane, South Africa
- Toga Laboratories, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Brian G. Williams
- South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Thomas C. Quinn
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Anton C. Stoltz
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Pretoria, City of Tshwane, South Africa
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Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia. GLOBAL HEALTH EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GENOMICS 2017; 2:e14. [PMID: 29276621 PMCID: PMC5732579 DOI: 10.1017/gheg.2017.8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2016] [Revised: 05/12/2017] [Accepted: 05/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
As a pilot study to investigate whether personalized medicine approaches could have value for the reduction of malaria-related mortality in young children, we evaluated questionnaire and biomarker data collected from the Mother Offspring Malaria Study Project birth cohort (Muheza, Tanzania, 2002–2006) at the time of delivery as potential prognostic markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia. Severe malarial anemia, defined here as a Plasmodium falciparum infection accompanied by hemoglobin levels below 50 g/L, is a key manifestation of life-threatening malaria in high transmission regions. For this study sample, a prediction model incorporating cord blood levels of interleukin-1β provided the strongest discrimination of severe malarial anemia risk with a C-index of 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.84), whereas a pragmatic model based on sex, gravidity, transmission season at delivery, and bed net possession yielded a more modest C-index of 0.63 (95% CI 0.54–0.71). Although additional studies, ideally incorporating larger sample sizes and higher event per predictor ratios, are needed to externally validate these prediction models, the findings provide proof of concept that risk score-based screening programs could be developed to avert severe malaria cases in early childhood.
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Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Objective: To develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women. Design: Data were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP). Methods: We implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations. Results: The final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65). Conclusions: A discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.
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Mathur S, Romo D, Rasmussen M, Nakyanjo N, Nalugoda F, Santelli JS. Re-focusing HIV prevention messages: a qualitative study in rural Uganda. AIDS Res Ther 2016; 13:37. [PMID: 27857775 PMCID: PMC5105323 DOI: 10.1186/s12981-016-0123-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2016] [Accepted: 11/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background After 30 years, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains an epidemic of global concern. To support the increasing emphasis on biomedical interventions for prevention requires a renewed and reframed focus on HIV prevention messages to motivate engagement in risk-reduction activities. This paper examines youth and adult perceptions of HIV prevention messages and HIV risk assessment in a generalized HIV epidemic context in Uganda. Methods We conducted 24 focus group discussions and 24 in-depth interviews with 15–45 year olds (n = 218) from three communities in the Rakai district of Uganda in 2012. Results We found generational differences in the how people viewed HIV, skepticism around introduction of new interventions, continued misconceptions and fears about condoms, and gender differences in content and salience of HIV prevention messages. Conclusions Shifts in HIV education are needed to address gaps in HIV messaging to foster engagement in risk reduction strategies and adoption of newer biomedical approaches to HIV prevention.
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Chang LW, Grabowski MK, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Kigozi G, Nantume B, Lessler J, Moore SM, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Gray RH, Serwadda D, Wawer MJ. Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in agrarian, trading, and fishing communities in Rakai, Uganda: an observational epidemiological study. Lancet HIV 2016; 3:e388-e396. [PMID: 27470029 PMCID: PMC4973864 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30034-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2016] [Revised: 04/23/2016] [Accepted: 04/28/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the extent to which HIV burden differs across communities and the drivers of local disparities is crucial for an effective and targeted HIV response. We assessed community-level variations in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and treatment and prevention service uptake in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS The Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) is an open, population-based cohort of people aged 15-49 years in 40 communities. Participants are HIV tested and interviewed to obtain sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information. RCCS data from Aug 10, 2011, to May 30, 2013, were used to classify communities as agrarian (n=27), trading (n=9), or lakeside fishing sites (n=4). We mapped HIV prevalence with Bayesian methods, and characterised variability across and within community classifications. We also assessed differences in HIV risk factors and uptake of antiretroviral therapy and male circumcision between community types. FINDINGS 17 119 individuals were included, 9215 (54%) of whom were female. 9931 participants resided in agrarian, 3318 in trading, and 3870 in fishing communities. Median HIV prevalence was higher in fishing communities (42%, range 38-43) than in trading (17%, 11-21) and agrarian communities (14%, 9-26). Antiretroviral therapy use was significantly lower in both men and women in fishing communities than in trading (age-adjusted prevalence risk ratio in men 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·97; women 0·53, 0·42-0·66) and agrarian communities (men 0·55, 0·42-0·72; women 0·65, 0·54-0·79), as was circumcision coverage among men (vs trading 0·48, 0·42-0·55; vs agrarian 0·64, 0·56-0·72). Self-reported risk behaviours were significantly higher in men than in women and in fishing communities than in other community types. INTERPRETATION Substantial heterogeneity in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and service uptake in Rakai, Uganda, emphasises the need for local surveillance and the design of targeted HIV responses. High HIV burden, risk behaviours, and low use of combination HIV prevention in fishing communities make these populations a priority for intervention. FUNDING National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, National Institutes of Health; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Larry W Chang
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Social and Behavioral Interventions Program, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Mary K Grabowski
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Sean M Moore
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Thomas C Quinn
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Steven J Reynolds
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ronald H Gray
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David Serwadda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Maria J Wawer
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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21
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Awad SF, Sgaier SK, Ncube G, Xaba S, Mugurungi OM, Mhangara MM, Lau FK, Mohamoud YA, Abu-Raddad LJ. A Reevaluation of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up Plan in Zimbabwe. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0140818. [PMID: 26529596 PMCID: PMC4646702 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2015] [Accepted: 09/29/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Zimbabwe aims to circumcise 80% of males aged 13-29 by 2017. We assessed the impact of actual VMMC scale-up to date and evaluated the impact of potential alterations to the program to enhance program efficiency, through prioritization of subpopulations. METHODS AND FINDINGS We implemented a recently developed analytical approach: the age-structured mathematical (ASM) model and accompanying three-level conceptual framework to assess the impact of VMMC as an intervention. By September 2014, 364,185 males were circumcised, an initiative that is estimated to avert 40,301 HIV infections by 2025. Through age-group prioritization, the number of VMMCs needed to avert one infection (effectiveness) ranged between ten (20-24 age-group) and 53 (45-49 age-group). The cost per infection averted ranged between $811 (20-24 age-group) and $5,518 (45-49 age-group). By 2025, the largest reductions in HIV incidence rate (up to 27%) were achieved by prioritizing 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old. The greatest program efficiency was achieved by prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old. Prioritizing males 13-29 year old was programmatically efficient, but slightly inferior to the 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 age groups. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness varied from 9-12 VMMCs per infection averted across provinces. Through risk-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from one (highest sexual risk-group) to 60 (lowest sexual risk-group) VMMCs per infection averted. CONCLUSION The current VMMC program plan in Zimbabwe is targeting an efficient and impactful age bracket (13-29 year old), but program efficiency can be improved by prioritizing a subset of males for demand creation and service availability. The greatest program efficiency can be attained by prioritizing young sexually active males and males whose sexual behavior puts them at higher risk for acquiring HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susanne F. Awad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in
Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha,
Qatar
| | - Sema K. Sgaier
- Integrated Delivery, Global Development Program, Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of
America
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle,
Washington, United States of America
| | - Gertrude Ncube
- AIDS and TB Programme, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare,
Zimbabwe
| | - Sinokuthemba Xaba
- AIDS and TB Programme, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare,
Zimbabwe
| | - Owen M. Mugurungi
- AIDS and TB Programme, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare,
Zimbabwe
| | - Mutsa M. Mhangara
- AIDS and TB Programme, Ministry of Health and Child Care, Harare,
Zimbabwe
| | - Fiona K. Lau
- Integrated Delivery, Global Development Program, Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of
America
| | - Yousra A. Mohamoud
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in
Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha,
Qatar
| | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in
Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha,
Qatar
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical
College, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of
America
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research
Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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22
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Kiwanuka N, Mpendo J, Nalutaaya A, Wambuzi M, Nanvubya A, Kitandwe PK, Muyanja E, Ssempiira J, Balyegisawa A, Ssetaala A. An assessment of fishing communities around Lake Victoria, Uganda, as potential populations for future HIV vaccine efficacy studies: an observational cohort study. BMC Public Health 2014; 14:986. [PMID: 25242015 PMCID: PMC4194358 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2014] [Accepted: 09/18/2014] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background An effective HIV vaccine is still elusive. Of the 9 HIV preventive vaccine efficacy trials conducted to-date, only one reported positive results of modest efficacy. More efficacy trials need to be conducted before one or more vaccines are eventually licensed. We assessed the suitability of fishing communities in Uganda for future HIV vaccine efficacy trials. Methods A community-based cohort study was conducted among a random sample of 2191 participants aged 18–49 years. Data were collected on socio-demographic characteristics, HIV risky behaviors, and willingness to participate in future HIV vaccine trials (WTP). Venous blood was collected for HIV serological testing. Retention/follow rates and HIV incidence rates per 100 person years at-risk (pyar) were estimated. Adjusted prevalence proportion ratios (PPRs) of retention and odds ratios (ORs) of lack of WTP were estimated using log-binomial and logistic regression models respectively. Results Overall retention rate was 76.9% (1685/2191), highest (89%) among participants who had spent 5+ years in the community and lowest (54.1%) among those with <1 year stay. Significant predictors of retention included tribe/ethnicity, baseline HIV negative status, and longer than 1 year stay in the community. Overall WTP was 89.1% (1953/2191). Lack of WTP was significantly higher among women than men [adj.OR = 1.51 (95% CI, 1.14- 2.00)] and among participants who had stayed in fishing communities for 10 or more years relative to those with less than one year [adj.OR = 1.78 (95% CI, 1.11 - 2.88)]. Overall HIV incidence rate per 100 pyar was 3.39 (95% CI; 2.55 - 4.49). Participants aged 25–29 years had highest incidence rates (4.61 - 7.67/100 pyar) and high retention rates between 78.5 and 83.1%. In a combined analysis of retention and incidence rates participants aged 30+ years had retention rates ~80% but low incidence rates (2.45 - 3.57 per 100 pyar) while those aged 25–29 years had the highest incidence rates (4.61 - 7.67/100 pyar) and retention rates 78.5 - 83.1%. Conclusions There is high HIV incidence, retention and WTP among fishing communities around L. Victoria, Uganda which make these communities appropriate for future HIV prevention efficacy studies including vaccine trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noah Kiwanuka
- Uganda Virus Research Institute-International AIDS Vaccine Initiate HIV Vaccine Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
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