Migratory herbivorous waterfowl track satellite-derived green wave index

Pursuit and escape drive fine-scale movement variation during migration in a temperate alpine ungulate

Climate change reduces snowpack, advances snowmelt phenology, drives summer warming, alters growing season precipitation regimes, and consequently modifies vegetation phenology in mountain systems. Elevational migrants track spatial variation in seasonal plant growth by moving between ranges at different elevations during spring, so climate-driven vegetation change may disrupt historic benefits of migration. Elevational migrants can furthermore cope with short-term environmental variability by undertaking brief vertical movements to refugia when sudden adverse conditions arise. We uncover drivers of fine-scale vertical movement variation during upland migration in an endangered alpine specialist, Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae) using a 20-year study of GPS collar data collected from 311 unique individuals. We used integrated step-selection analysis to determine factors that promote vertical movements and drive selection of destinations following vertical movements. Our results reveal that relatively high temperatures consistently drive uphill movements, while precipitation likely drives downhill movements. Furthermore, bighorn select destinations at their peak annual biomass and maximal time since snowmelt. These results indicate that although Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep seek out foraging opportunities related to landscape phenology, they compensate for short-term environmental stressors by undertaking brief up- and downslope vertical movements. Migrants may therefore be impacted by future warming and increased storm frequency or intensity, with shifts in annual migration timing, and fine-scale vertical movement responses to environmental variability.

Chasing and surfing seasonal waves: Avian migration through the US tracks land surface phenology in fall, but not spring

Climate change is altering the timing of seasonal events for many taxa. There is limited understanding of how northward/southward songbird migration follows or is limited by the latitudinal progression of seasonal transitions. Consistent environmental conditions that migrating birds encounter across latitudes likely represent or correlate with important resources or limiting factors for migration. We tested whether migratory passage-observed via radar-consistently tracked land surface variables and phenophases across latitudes in the US Central Flyway in both spring and fall. The daily temperatures, precipitation and vegetation greenness occurring on 10%, 50% and 90% cumulative passage dates changed substantially with latitude, indicating that most migrants experienced rapidly changing conditions as they headed north or south. Temperature did not limit the progression of migration in either season. Peak spring migration in the southern US occurred nearly 40 days after the spring green wave, the northward progression of vegetation growth, but nearly caught up to green-up at 48° N. Spring migration phenology may have evolved to prioritize earlier arrival for breeding. Across all latitudes, peak fall migration coincided with the same land surface phenophase, an interval of 26 days prior to dormancy onset. Migrants may rely on phenological events in vegetation during fall stopovers. Considering that (a) migratory passage tracked fall land surface phenology across latitudes at a continental scale, (b) previous studies at local scales have demonstrated the importance of fruit during fall migratory stopover and (c) fruiting phenology in North America is occurring later over time while fall migration is advancing, the potential for mismatch between fall fruiting and bird migration phenology urgently needs further investigation.

Antibiotic resistance of heterotrophic bacteria from the sediments of adjoining high Arctic fjords, Svalbard

Antibiotic resistance bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are now considered major global threats. The Kongsfjorden and Krossfjorden are the interlinked fjords in the Arctic that are currently experiencing the effects of climate change and receiving input of pollutants from distant and regional sources. The present study focused on understanding the prevalence of antibiotic resistance of retrievable heterotrophic bacteria from the sediments of adjacent Arctic fjords Kongsfjorden and Krossfjorden. A total of 237 bacterial isolates were tested against 16 different antibiotics. The higher resistance observed towards Extended Spectrum β-lactam antibiotic (ESBL) includes ceftazidime (45.56%) followed by trimethoprim (27%) and sulphamethizole (24.05%). The extent of resistance was meagre against tetracycline (2.53%) and gentamycin (2.95%). The 16S rRNA sequencing analysis identified that Proteobacteria (56%) were the dominant antibiotic resistant phyla, followed by Firmicutes (35%), Actinobacteria (8%) and Bacteroidetes. The dominant resistant bacterial isolates are Bacillus cereus (10%), followed by Alcaligenes faecalis (6.47%), Cytobacillus firmus (5.75%) Salinibacterium sp. (5%) and Marinobacter antarcticus (5%). Our study reveals the prevalence of antibiotic resistance showed significant differences in both the inner and outer fjords of Kongsfjorden and Krossfjorden (p < 0.05). This may be the input of antibiotic resistance bacteria released into the fjords from the preserved permafrost due to the melting of glaciers, horizontal gene transfer, and human influence in the Arctic region act as a selection pressure for the development and dissemination of more antibiotic resistant bacteria in Arctic fjords.

Visual lateralization in the sky: Geese manifest visual lateralization when flying with pair mates

The brain's sensory lateralization involves the processing of information from the sensory organs primarily in one hemisphere. This can improve brain efficiency by reducing interference and duplication of neural circuits. For species that rely on successful interaction among family partners, such as geese, lateralization can be advantageous. However, at the group level, one-sided biases in sensory lateralization can make individuals predictable to competitors and predators. We investigated lateral preferences in the positioning of pair mates of Greater white-fronted geese Anser albifrons albifrons. Using GPS-GSM trackers, we monitored individual geese in flight throughout the year. Our findings indicate that geese exhibit individual lateral biases when viewing their mate in flight, but the direction of these biases varies among individuals. We suggest that these patterns of visual lateralization could be an adaptive trait for the species with long-term social monogamy, high levels of interspecies communication and competition, and high levels of predator and hunting pressure.

Unconventional life history in a migratory shorebird: desegregating reproduction and migration

Conventional life-history theory predicts that energy-demanding events such as reproduction and migration must be temporally segregated to avoid resource limitation. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first direct evidence of 'itinerant breeding' in a migratory bird, an incredibly rare breeding strategy (less than 0.1% of extant bird species) that involves the temporal overlap of migratory and reproductive periods of the annual cycle. Based on GPS-tracking of over 200 female American woodcock, most female woodcock (greater than 80%) nested more than once (some up to six times) with short re-nest intervals, and females moved northwards on average 800 km between first and second nests, and then smaller distances (ca 200+ km) between subsequent nesting attempts. Reliance on ephemeral habitat for breeding, ground-nesting and key aspects of life history that reduce both the costs of reproduction and migration probably explain the prevalence of this rare phenotype in woodcock and why itinerant breeding so rarely occurs in other bird species.

Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Springing forward: Migrating songbirds catch up with the start of spring in North America

In temperate regions, the annual pattern of spring onset can be envisioned as a 'green wave' of emerging vegetation that moves across continents from low to high latitudes, signifying increasing food availability for consumers. Many herbivorous migrants 'surf' such resource waves, timing their movements to exploit peak vegetation resources in early spring. Although less well studied at the individual level, secondary consumers such as insectivorous songbirds can track vegetation phenology during migration as well. We hypothesized that four species of ground-foraging songbirds in eastern North America-two warblers and two thrushes-time their spring migrations to coincide with later phases of vegetation phenology, corresponding to increased arthropod prey, and predicted they would match their migration rate to the green wave but trail behind it rather than surfing its leading edge. We further hypothesized that the rate at which spring onset progresses across the continent influences bird migration rates, such that individuals adjust migration timing within North America to phenological conditions they experience en route. To test our hypotheses, we used a continent-wide automated radio telemetry network to track individual songbirds on spring migration between the U.S. Gulf Coast region and northern locations closer to their breeding grounds. We measured vegetation phenology using two metrics of spring onset, the spring index first leaf date and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), then calculated the rate and timing of spring onset relative to bird detections. All individuals arrived in the southeastern United States well after local spring onset. Counter to our expectations, we found that songbirds exhibited a 'catching up' pattern: Individuals migrated faster than the green wave of spring onset, effectively closing in on the start of spring as they approached breeding areas. While surfing of resource waves is a well-documented migration strategy for herbivorous waterfowl and ungulates, individual songbirds in our study migrated faster than the green wave and increasingly caught up to its leading edge en route. Consequently, songbirds experience a range of vegetation phenophases while migrating through North America, suggesting flexibility in their capacity to exploit variable resources in spring.

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

Ecological and phylogenetic aspects of the spring diet of three palaearctic species of swans

The quality of swans' nutrition at spring migration stopovers is important for their successful breeding. It is of great interest to study the differences in nutrition of different swan species when sharing the same habitat. Microscopic analysis of Cygnus olor, C. cygnus, and C. columbianus bewickii feces collected in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland in February-April 2014-2019 was performed. We measured food preferences of the three swan species using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). The width and overlap of dietary niches were also calculated. The diet of C. olor consists almost entirely of soft submerged aquatic vegetation, mainly macroalgae. Samples of the other two species except macroalgae contained large amounts of young shoots and roots of rigid semi-submerged and coastal vegetation. The dietary niche of C. cygnus is the most isolated because it is dominated by thick rhizomes of Phragmites australis, which are hardly used by other swan species. The diet of Bewick's swans was similar in many respects to that of the Mute swan, but Bewick's swans much more often preferred vegetative parts of submerged and semi-submerged plants, such as Stuckenia pectinata, Potamogeton perfoliatus, Sparganium sp., Nuphar lutea, and others. Notably, the dietary niches of Mute swan and Whooper swan overlapped as much as possible in February March during a period of severe food shortage, in contrast to later periods in spring when food was more abundant and varied. In general, differences in diets are well explained by differences in the morphology of birds. Comparison of tarsometatarsus indices shows that C. olor is the most water-related species. C. olor has the longest neck and its beak has the strongest filter features, whereas beaks of the other two species shows noticeable "goose-like grazing" features. Moreover, C. Cygnus has the most powerful beak. These features are due to the history of species. The formation of C. olor occurred during the Miocene-Pliocene of the Palaearctic in the warm eutrophic marine lagoons of the Paratethys with abundant soft submerged vegetation. The evolution of C. cygnus and C. c. bewickii took place in Pleistocene. At that time, periglacial and thermokarst water bodies on permafrost became widespread in the Palearctic, as well as dystrophic peat lakes with much poorer submerged aquatic vegetation, but well-developed coastal and semi-submerged vegetation.

Modeling Complex Seasonal Avian Migration: Predictions From the Thermal Environment and Resource Availability

Billions of birds undertake long-distance migration and the complexity of schedules has only recently become clear. Such movements occur as a response to seasonality but the ultimate drivers of these changing distributions remain difficult to study directly. Modeling seasonal distributions based fundamentally on climate and vegetation without parameterizing with empirical data, we focus on the potential role of ambient temperature and available resources in shaping the migratory program. We simulate the complete annual cycle over the Afro-Palearctic region in a round-trip migration model allowing full variation in the extent and timing of movement, and multiple stopovers. The resultant simulated tracks and associated environmental metrics are interrogated: we evaluate the thermal and resource consequences of staying in Europe versus crossing the Sahara, and secondly identify the movement patterns optimizing exposure to green vegetation and local surpluses. There is a distinct thermal gain from crossing the Sahara and the pattern emerging of optimal seasonal vegetation resembles contemporary migration routes regarding Sahara crossing, loop structure and itinerancy. Thus, our first-principle simulations suggest that variations in migration patterns among species are caused by a complex trade-off between risks and rewards of staying versus moving, including innate physiological constraints and the resultant gain of the high-risk Sahara crossing.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Niche dynamics suggest ecological factors influencing migration in an insectivorous owl

Seasonal migration is a widespread phenomenon undertaken by myriad organisms, including birds. Competing hypotheses about ultimate drivers of seasonal migration in birds contrast relative resource abundances at high latitudes ("southern home hypothesis") against avoidance of winter resource scarcity ("dispersal-migration hypothesis"). However, direct tests of these competing hypotheses have been rare and heretofore limited to historical biogeographic reconstructions. Here we derive novel predictions about the dynamics of individual niches from each hypothesis and provide a framework for evaluating support for these competing hypotheses using contemporary environmental and behavioral data. Using flammulated owls (Psiloscops flammeolus) as a model, we characterized year-round occupied niche dynamics using high resolution GPS tracking and remote-sensed environmental data. We also compared occupied niche dynamics to counterfactual niches using simulated alternative non-migratory strategies. Owls' occupied mean niche was conserved between seasons whereas niche variance was generally higher during migratory periods. Simulated year-round residents in Mexico would have experienced putatively more productive niches than migrants. These findings provide ecological support for the "dispersal-migration" hypothesis wherein winter resource scarcity is the primary driver of migration rather than summer resource abundances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Limited increase in asynchrony between the onset of spring green-up and the arrival of a long-distance migratory bird

For many migrant bird species around the world, climate change has been shown to induce changes in the timings of arrival and the onset of spring food availability at breeding sites. However, whether such changes enlarged asynchrony between the timings of spring arrival of long-distance migratory birds and onset of vegetation greenness increase remain controversial. We used a 29-year phenological dataset to investigate the temporal changes in spring first-sighting date (FSD) of a long-distance migratory bird (barn swallow, Hirundo rustica), from observations at 160 local breeding sites across northern China, and the vegetation green-up onset date (VGD), determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness. We found that both FSD and VGD trended earlier at over two-thirds of the breeding sites. FSD significantly advanced at 26.9% of the sites, and VGD significantly advanced at 23.8% of the sites. The degree of asynchrony between FSD and VGD changed significantly at one-third of the breeding sites (22.5% with an increase versus 11.3% with a decrease), leading to a limited increase of phenological mismatch. We speculated that climate change did not disrupt the climatic connections between most breeding sites and corresponding non-breeding sites (wintering grounds and migration routes). Our findings suggest that climate change may not greatly increase phenological mismatch between first arrival date of barn swallows and VGD at breeding sites. Importantly, this study should serve as a cue to encourage ecologists and conservation biologists to expand the context under which to explore the ecological consequences of phenological shifts beyond asynchrony, such as individual survival, population demography and ecosystem-level consequences.

Timing of spring departure of long distance migrants correlates with previous year's conditions at their breeding site

Precise timing of migration is crucial for animals targeting seasonal resources at locations encountered across their annual cycle. Upon departure, long-distance migrants need to anticipate unknown environmental conditions at their arrival site, and they do so with their internal annual clock. Here, we tested the hypothesis that long-distance migrants synchronize their circannual clock according to the phenology of their environment during the breeding season and therefore adjust their spring departure date according to the conditions encountered at their breeding site the year before. To this end, we used tracking data of Eurasian curlews from different locations and combined movement data with satellite-extracted green-up dates at their breeding site. The spring departure date was better explained by green-up date of the previous year, while arrival date at the breeding site was better explained by latitude and longitude of the breeding site, suggesting that other factors impacted migration timing en route. On a broader temporal scale, our results suggest that long-distance migrants may be able to adjust their migration timing to advancing spring dates in the context of climate change.

Changes in surface water drive the movements of Shoebills

Animal movement is mainly determined by spatial and temporal changes in resource availability. For wetland specialists, the seasonal availability of surface water may be a major determinant of their movement patterns. This study is the first to examine the movements of Shoebills (Balaeniceps rex), an iconic and vulnerable bird species. Using GPS transmitters deployed on six immature and one adult Shoebills over a 5-year period, during which four immatures matured into adults, we analyse their home ranges and distances moved in the Bangweulu Wetlands, Zambia. We relate their movements at the start of the rainy season (October to December) to changes in Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), a proxy for surface water. We show that Shoebills stay in the Bangweulu Wetlands all year round, moving less than 3 km per day on 81% of days. However, average annual home ranges were large, with high individual variability, but were similar between age classes. Immature and adult Shoebills responded differently to changes in surface water; sites that adults abandoned became drier, while sites abandoned by immatures became wetter. However, there were no differences in NDWI of areas used by Shoebills before abandonment and newly selected sites, suggesting that Shoebills select areas with similar surface water. We hypothesise that the different responses to changes in surface water by immature and adult Shoebills are related to age-specific optimal foraging conditions and fishing techniques. Our study highlights the need to understand the movements of Shoebills throughout their life cycle to design successful conservation actions for this emblematic, yet poorly known, species.

Nocturnal foraging lifts time constraints in winter for migratory geese but hardly speeds up fueling

Climate warming advances the optimal timing of breeding for many animals. For migrants to start breeding earlier, a concurrent advancement of migration is required, including premigratory fueling of energy reserves. We investigate whether barnacle geese are time constrained during premigratory fueling and whether there is potential to advance or shorten the fueling period to allow an earlier migratory departure. We equipped barnacle geese with GPS trackers and accelerometers to remotely record birds’ behavior, from which we calculated time budgets. We examined how time spent foraging was affected by the available time (during daylight and moonlit nights) and thermoregulation costs. We used an energetic model to assess onset and rates of fueling and whether geese can further advance fueling by extending foraging time. We show that, during winter, when facing higher thermoregulation costs, geese consistently foraged at night, especially during moonlit nights, in order to balance their energy budgets. In spring, birds made use of the increasing day length and gained body stores by foraging longer during the day, but birds stopped foraging extensively during the night. Our model indicates that, by continuing nighttime foraging throughout spring, geese may have some leeway to advance and increase fueling rate, potentially reaching departure body mass 4 days earlier. In light of rapid climatic changes on the breeding grounds, whether this advancement can be realized and whether it will be sufficient to prevent phenological mismatches remains to be determined.

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate

In northern climates, spring is a time of rapid environmental change: for migrating terrestrial animals, melting snow facilitates foraging and travel, and newly emergent vegetation provides a valuable nutritional resource. These changes result in selection on the timing of important life-history events such as migration and parturition occurring when high-quality resources are most abundant. We examined the timing of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus, n = 94) migration and parturition in five herds across 7 yr in Newfoundland, Canada, as a function of two measures of environmental change-snowmelt and vegetation green-up. We generated resource selection functions to test whether caribou selected for areas associated with snowmelt and green-up during migration and following calving. We found that caribou migrated approximately 1 wk prior to snowmelt, with the flush of emergent vegetation occurring during the weeks following parturition. The results indicate that caribou "jump" the green wave of emergent forage and do so by tracking the receding edge of melting snow, likely reducing movement and foraging costs related to snow cover. Our research further broadens the ecological scope of resource tracking in animals. We demonstrate that resource tracking extends beyond resources directly related to foraging to those related to movement. We also show that snowmelt provides an environmental cue that may provide a buffer against changing environmental conditions.

Phenological synchronization of seasonal bird migration with vegetation greenness across dietary guilds

The seasonal movement of animals has been linked to seasonal variation in ecological productivity, and it has been hypothesized that primary consumers synchronize migration with vegetation phenology. Within temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, herbivorous bird species often track the phenology of vegetation greenness during spring migration. Phenological synchronization with vegetation greenness by migratory birds in other dietary guilds, across the full extent of their annual distributions during both spring and autumn migration, has not been explored. Here, we document population-level associations with a remotely sensed measure of vegetation greenness for 230 North American migratory bird species in seven dietary guilds across the full annual cycle using eBird occurrence information for the combined period 2006-2018. Evidence of phenological synchronization was strongest for omnivores, herbivores, herbivore-granivores and granivores during spring and autumn migration, except for omnivores in the west during spring migration. Strong evidence of synchronization was also observed for insectivores during spring migration and carnivores during spring and autumn migration that migrated across the entire breadth of the continent. The level of evidence declined for insectivores in the west and east during spring migration, and for nectarivores in the west during spring and autumn migration. Limited evidence was also found for insectivores in the east during autumn migration, insectivores in the west and the centre of the continent during spring and autumn migration, and carnivores in the west during spring migration. Carnivores in the west during autumn migration showed the weakest evidence of synchronization. We found broad support across an array of dietary guilds for phenological coupling between vegetation greenness and seasonal bird migration within North America. Our results highlight the potential for many migratory bird species to encounter phenological mismatches as vegetation phenology responds to climate change. Our findings emphasize the need to better understand the environmental cues that regulate migratory behaviour across dietary guilds, consumer levels and migration tactics.

Using satellite-derived estimates of plant phenological rhythms to predict sage-grouse nesting chronology

The "green wave" hypothesis posits that during spring consumers track spatial gradients in emergent vegetation and associated foraging opportunities. This idea has largely been invoked to explain animal migration patterns, yet the general phenomenon underlies trends in vertebrate reproductive chronology as well. We evaluated the utility of this hypothesis for predicting spatial variation in nest initiation of greater sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in western North America. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map the green wave across elevation and then compiled dates and locations of >450 sage-grouse nests from 20 study sites (2000-2014) to model nest initiation as a function of the start of the growing season (SOS), defined here as the maximum daily rate of increase in NDVI. Individual sites were drawn from three ecoregions, distributed over 4.5° latitude, and spanning 2,300 m in elevation, which captured the climatic, edaphic, and floristic diversity of sagebrush ecosystems in the southern half of current sage-grouse range. As predicted, SOS displayed a significant, positive relationship with elevation, occurring 1.3 days later for each 100 m increase in elevation. In turn, sage-grouse nest initiation followed SOS by 22 ± 10 days (r2  = .57), with hatch dates falling on or just prior to the peak of the growing season. By timing nesting to the green wave, sage-grouse chicks hatched when the abundance of protein-rich invertebrate biomass is hypothesized to be nearing a seasonal high. This adaptation likely represents a strategy for maximizing reproductive success in the arid, variable environments that define sagebrush ecosystems. Given projected changes in climate and land use, these results can be used to predict periods of relative sensitivity to habitat disturbance for sage-grouse. Moreover, the near real-time availability of satellite imagery offers a heretofore underutilized means of mapping the green wave, planning habitat restoration, and monitoring range conditions.

Model-Assisted Bird Monitoring Based on Remotely Sensed Ecosystem Functioning and Atlas Data

Urgent action needs to be taken to halt global biodiversity crisis. To be effective in the implementation of such action, managers and policy-makers need updated information on the status and trends of biodiversity. Here, we test the ability of remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) to predict the distribution of 73 bird species with different life-history traits. We run ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) trained with bird atlas data and 12 EFAs describing different dimensions of carbon cycle and surface energy balance. Our ensemble SDMs—exclusively based on EFAs—hold a high predictive capacity across 71 target species (up to 0.94 and 0.79 of Area Under the ROC curve and true skill statistic (TSS)). Our results showed the life-history traits did not significantly affect SDM performance. Overall, minimum Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and maximum Albedo values (descriptors of primary productivity and energy balance) were the most important predictors across our bird community. Our approach leverages the existing atlas data and provides an alternative method to monitor inter-annual bird habitat dynamics from space in the absence of long-term biodiversity monitoring schemes. This study illustrates the great potential that satellite remote sensing can contribute to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and to the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework (EBV class “Species distribution”).

Effects of migration network configuration and migration synchrony on infection prevalence in geese

Migration can influence dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. However, it is not clearly known how migration pattern, in terms of the configuration of the migration network and the synchrony of migration, affects infection prevalence. We therefore applied a discrete-time SIR model, integrating environmental transmission and migration, to various migration networks, including networks with serial, parallel, or both serial and parallel stopover sites, and with various levels of migration synchrony. We applied the model to the infection of avian influenza virus in a migratory geese population. In a network with only serial stopover sites, increasing the number of stopover sites reduced infection prevalence, because with every new stopover site, the amount of virus in the environment was lower than that in the previous stopover site, thereby reducing the exposure of the migratory population. In a network with parallel stopover sites, both increasing the number and earlier appearance of the stopover sites led to an earlier peak of infection prevalence in the migratory population, because the migratory population is exposed to larger total amount of virus in the environment, speeding-up the infection accumulation. Furthermore, higher migration synchrony reduced the average number of cumulative infection, because the majority of the population can fly to a new stopover site where the amount of virus is still relatively low and has not been increased due to virus shedding of infected birds. Our simulations indicate that a migration pattern with multiple serial stopover sites and with highly synchronized migration reduces the infection prevalence.

Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt

Migratory species display a range of migration patterns between irruptive (facultative) to regular (obligate), as a response to different predictability of resources. In the Arctic, snow directly influences resource availability. The causes and consequences of different migration patterns of migratory species as a response to the snow conditions remains however unexplored. Birds migrating to the Arctic are expected to follow the spring snowmelt to optimise their arrival time and select for snow-free areas to maximise prey encounter en-route. Based on large-scale movement data, we compared the migration patterns of three top predator species of the tundra in relation to the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover. The snowy owl, an irruptive migrant, the rough-legged buzzard, with an intermediary migration pattern, and the peregrine falcon as a regular migrant, all followed, as expected, the spring snowmelt during their migrations. However, the owl stayed ahead, the buzzard stayed on, and the falcon stayed behind the spatio-temporal peak in snowmelt. Although none of the species avoided snow-covered areas, they presumably used snow presence as a cue to time their arrival at their breeding grounds. We show the importance of environmental cues for species with different migration patterns.

Migrating bison engineer the green wave

Newly emerging plants provide the best forage for herbivores. To exploit this fleeting resource, migrating herbivores align their movements to surf the wave of spring green-up. With new technology to track migrating animals, the Green Wave Hypothesis has steadily gained empirical support across a diversity of migratory taxa. This hypothesis assumes the green wave is controlled by variation in climate, weather, and topography, and its progression dictates the timing, pace, and extent of migrations. However, aggregate grazers that are also capable of engineering grassland ecosystems make some of the world's most impressive migrations, and it is unclear how the green wave determines their movements. Here we show that Yellowstone's bison (Bison bison) do not choreograph their migratory movements to the wave of spring green-up. Instead, bison modify the green wave as they migrate and graze. While most bison surfed during early spring, they eventually slowed and let the green wave pass them by. However, small-scale experiments indicated that feedback from grazing sustained forage quality. Most importantly, a 6-fold decadal shift in bison density revealed that intense grazing caused grasslands to green up faster, more intensely, and for a longer duration. Our finding broadens our understanding of the ways in which animal movements underpin the foraging benefit of migration. The widely accepted Green Wave Hypothesis needs to be revised to include large aggregate grazers that not only move to find forage, but also engineer plant phenology through grazing, thereby shaping their own migratory movements.

From Land to Sea, a Review of Hypertemporal Remote Sensing Advances to Support Ocean Surface Science

Increases in the temporal frequency of satellite-derived imagery mean a greater diversity of ocean surface features can be studied, modelled, and understood. The ongoing temporal data “explosion” is a valuable resource, having prompted the development of adapted and new methodologies to extract information from hypertemporal datasets. Current suitable methodologies for use in hypertemporal ocean surface studies include using pixel-centred measurement analyses (PMA), classification analyses (CLS), and principal components analyses (PCA). These require limited prior knowledge of the system being measured. Time-series analyses (TSA) are also promising, though they require more expert knowledge which may be unavailable. Full use of this resource by ocean and fisheries researchers is restrained by limitations in knowledge on the regional to sub-regional spatiotemporal characteristics of the ocean surface. To lay the foundations for more expert, knowledge-driven research, temporal signatures and temporal baselines need to be identified and quantified in large datasets. There is an opportunity for data-driven hypertemporal methodologies. This review examines nearly 25 years of advances in exploratory hypertemporal research, and how methodologies developed for terrestrial research should be adapted when tasked towards ocean applications. It highlights research gaps which impede methodology transfer, and suggests achievable research areas to be addressed as short-term priorities.

Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

Understanding drivers of antibiotic resistance genes in High Arctic soil ecosystems

Soils in tropical and temperate locations are known to be a sink for the genetic potential of anthropogenic-driven acquired antibiotic resistance (AR). In contrast, accumulation of acquired AR is less probable in most Polar soils, providing a platform for characterizing background resistance and establishing a benchmark for assessing AR spread. Here, high-throughput qPCR and geochemistry were used to quantify the abundance and diversity of both antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and selected mobile genetic elements (MGEs) across eight soil clusters in the Kongsfjorden region of Svalbard in the High Arctic. Relative ARG levels ranged by over two orders of magnitude (10^-6 to 10^-4 copies/16S rRNA gene copy), and showed a gradient of potential human and wildlife impacts across clusters as evidenced by altered geochemical conditions and increased "foreign" ARG abundances (i.e., allochthonous), including bla_NDM-1. Impacted clusters exhibited 100× higher total ARGs and MGEs in tandem with elevated secondary nutrients, especially available P that is typically low and limiting in Arctic soils. In contrast, ARGs in less-impacted clusters correlated strongly to local soil lithology. The most plausible source of exogenous P and allochthonous ARGs in this region is bird and other wildlife guano, disseminated either by local human wastes or via direct carriage and deposition. Regardless of pathway, accumulation of apparent allochthonous ARGs and MGEs in High Arctic soils is concerning, highlighting the importance of characterizing Arctic sites now to establish benchmarks for tracking AR spread around the world.

Effects of species traits and environmental predictors on performance and transferability of ecological niche models

The ability of ecological niche models (ENMs) to produce robust predictions for different time frames (i.e. temporal transferability) may be hindered by a lack of ecologically relevant predictors. Model performance may also be affected by species traits, which may reflect different responses to processes controlling species distribution. In this study, we tested four primary hypotheses involving the role of species traits and environmental predictors in ENM performance and transferability. We compared the predictive accuracy of ENMs based upon (1) climate, (2) land-use/cover (LULC) and (3) ecosystem functional attributes (EFAs), and (4) the combination of these factors for 27 bird species within and beyond the time frame of model calibration. The combination of these factors significantly increased both model performance and transferability, highlighting the need to integrate climate, LULC and EFAs to improve biodiversity projections. However, the overall model transferability was low (being only acceptable for less than 25% of species), even under a hierarchical modelling approach, which calls for great caution in the use of ENMs to predict bird distributions under global change scenarios. Our findings also indicate that positive effects of species traits on predictive accuracy within model calibration are not necessarily translated into higher temporal transferability.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.

Green wave tracking by large herbivores: an experimental approach

The forage maturation hypothesis (FMH) states that herbivores should follow the onset of growth in spring to obtain access to forage of higher quality and quantity, the so-called "green wave surfing." Several studies have found correlative evidence in support of this by associating animal movement with plant phenology. However, experimental manipulation of vast natural systems determining causes of large herbivore movement is usually beyond reach. The unique management system involving winter enclosures for wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Germany facilitated an opportunity for an experimental approach. We manipulated release dates of red deer into free-ranging conditions in spring, predicting increased overall access to high quality forage if released early (1 April), and more rapid initial movement speed towards higher elevation if released late (15 May). The latter had lower access to high quality forage than individuals released early, as they missed parts of the green wave. In strong support of the FMH, individuals released late moved at faster initial speed than early released individuals which tracked the green wave more closely, both settling when reaching similar elevations. This shows that red deer were flexible in their movements, and they can adapt to new patterns of phenology by phenotypic plasticity.

Using NextRAD sequencing to infer movement of herbivores among host plants

Herbivores often move among spatially interspersed host plants, tracking high-quality resources through space and time. This dispersal is of particular interest for vectors of plant pathogens. Existing molecular tools to track such movement have yielded important insights, but often provide insufficient genetic resolution to infer spread at finer spatiotemporal scales. Here, we explore the use of Nextera-tagmented reductively-amplified DNA (NextRAD) sequencing to infer movement of a highly-mobile winged insect, the potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli), among host plants. The psyllid vectors the pathogen that causes zebra chip disease in potato (Solanum tuberosum), but understanding and managing the spread of this pathogen is limited by uncertainty about the insect's host plant(s) outside of the growing season. We identified 1,978 polymorphic loci among psyllids separated spatiotemporally on potato or in patches of bittersweet nightshade (S. dulcumara), a weedy plant proposed to be the source of potato-colonizing psyllids. A subset of the psyllids on potato exhibited genetic similarity to insects on nightshade, consistent with regular movement between these two host plants. However, a second subset of potato-collected psyllids was genetically distinct from those collected on bittersweet nightshade; this suggests that a currently unrecognized source, i.e., other nightshade patches or a third host-plant species, could be contributing to psyllid populations in potato. Oftentimes, dispersal of vectors of pathogens must be tracked at a fine scale in order to understand, predict, and manage disease spread. We demonstrate that emerging sequencing technologies that detect genome-wide SNPs of a vector can be used to infer such localized movement.

The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore

The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e. green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that migratory routes are more than a link between seasonal ranges, and they provide an important, but often overlooked, foraging habitat. In addition, the spatiotemporal configuration of forage resources that propagate along migratory routes shape animal movement and presumably, energy gains during migration.

Forage plants of an Arctic-nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds, potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen-rich forage plants, following a "green wave" of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open-top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0-1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop-over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen-rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1-2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.

How do energy stores and changes in these affect departure decisions by migratory birds? A critical view on stopover ecology studies and some future perspectives

In birds, accumulating energy is far slower than spending energy during flight. During migration, birds spend, therefore, most of the time at stopover refueling energy used during the previous flight. This elucidates why current energy stores and actual rate of accumulating energy are likely crucial factors influencing bird's decision when to resume migration in addition to other intrinsic (sex, age) and extrinsic (predation, weather) factors modulating the decision within the innate migration program. After first summarizing how energy stores and stopover durations are generally determined, we critically review that high-energy stores and low rates of accumulating energy were significantly related to high departure probabilities in several bird groups. There are, however, also many studies showing no effect at all. Recent radio-tracking studies highlighted that migrants leave a site either to resume migration or to search for a better stopover location, so-called "landscape movements". Erroneously treating such movements as departures increases the likelihood of type II errors which might mistakenly suggest no effect of either trait on departure. Furthermore, we propose that energy loss during the previous migratory flight in relation to bird's current energy stores and migration strategy significantly affects its urge to refuel and hence its departure decision.

Resource tracking within and across continents in long-distance bird migrants

Migratory birds track seasonal resources across and between continents. We propose a general strategy of tracking the broad seasonal abundance of resources throughout the annual cycle in the longest-distance migrating land birds as an alternative to tracking a certain climatic niche or shorter-term resource surplus occurring, for example, during spring foliation. Whether and how this is possible for complex annual spatiotemporal schedules is not known. New tracking technology enables unprecedented spatial and temporal mapping of long-distance movement of birds. We show that three Palearctic-African species track vegetation greenness throughout their annual cycle, adjusting the timing and direction of migratory movements with seasonal changes in resource availability over Europe and Africa. Common cuckoos maximize the vegetation greenness, whereas red-backed shrikes and thrush nightingales track seasonal surplus in greenness. Our results demonstrate that the longest-distance migrants move between consecutive staging areas even within the wintering region in Africa to match seasonal variation in regional climate. End-of-century climate projections indicate that optimizing greenness would be possible but that vegetation surplus might be more difficult to track in the future.

Assessing migration patterns in Passerina ciris using the world's bird collections as an aggregated resource

Natural history museum collections (NHCs) represent a rich and largely untapped source of data on demography and population movements. NHC specimen records can be corrected to a crude measure of collecting effort and reflect relative population densities with a method known as abundance indices. We plotted abundance index values from georeferenced NHC data in a 12-month series for the new world migratory passerine Passerina ciris across its molting and wintering range in Mexico and Central America. We illustrated a statistically significant change in abundance index values across regions and months that suggests a quasi-circular movement around its non-breeding range, and used enhanced vegetation index (EVI) analysis of remote sensing plots to demonstrate non-random association of specimen record abundance with areas of high primary productivity. We demonstrated how abundance indices from NHC specimen records can be applied to infer previously unknown migratory behavior, and be integrated with remote sensing data to provide a deeper understanding of demography and behavioral ecology across time and space.

Exploring the environmental drivers of waterfowl movement in arid landscapes using first-passage time analysis

BACKGROUND

The movement patterns of many southern African waterfowl are typified by nomadism, which is thought to be a response to unpredictable changes in resource distributions. Nomadism and the related movement choices that waterfowl make in arid environments are, however, poorly understood. Tracking multiple individuals across wide spatiotemporal gradients offers one approach to elucidating the cues and mechanisms underpinning movement decisions. We used first-passage time (FPT) to analyse high spatial and temporal resolution telemetry data for Red-billed Teal and Egyptian Geese across a 1500 km geographical gradient between 2008 and 2014. We tested the importance of several environmental variables in structuring movement patterns, focusing on two competing hypotheses: (1) whether movements are driven by resource conditions during the current period of habitat occupation (reactive movement hypothesis), or (2) whether movements are structured by shifts in the magnitude and direction of environmental variables at locations prior to occupation (prescient movement hypothesis).

RESULTS

An increase in rainfall at a 32 day lag (i.e., prior to wetland occupancy), along with tagging site, were significant predictors of FPT in both waterfowl species. There was a positive relationship between NDVI and FPT for Egyptian Geese during this 32 day period; the relationship was negative for Red-billed Teal. Consistent with findings for migratory grazing geese, Egyptian Geese prioritised food quality over food biomass. Red-billed Teal showed few immediate responses to wetland filling, contrary to what one would predict for a dabbling duck, suggesting high dietary flexibility. Our results were consistent with the prescient movement hypothesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Using FPT analysis we showed that the proximate drivers of southern African waterfowl movement are the dynamics of rainfall and primary productivity. Waterfowl appeared to be able to perceive and respond to temporal shifts in resource conditions prior to habitat patch occupation. This in turn suggests that their movements in semi-arid landscapes may be underpinned by intimate knowledge of the local environment; waterfowl pursue a complex behavioural strategy, locating suitable habitat patches proactively, rather than acting as passive respondents.

Do Arctic breeding geese track or overtake a green wave during spring migration?

Geese breeding in the Arctic have to do so in a short time-window while having sufficient body reserves. Hence, arrival time and body condition upon arrival largely influence breeding success. The green wave hypothesis posits that geese track a successively delayed spring flush of plant development on the way to their breeding sites. The green wave has been interpreted as representing either the onset of spring or the peak in nutrient biomass. However, geese tend to adopt a partial capital breeding strategy and might overtake the green wave to accomplish a timely arrival on the breeding site. To test the green wave hypothesis, we link the satellite-derived onset of spring and peak in nutrient biomass with the stopover schedule of individual Barnacle Geese. We find that geese track neither the onset of spring nor the peak in nutrient biomass. Rather, they arrive at the southernmost stopover site around the peak in nutrient biomass, and gradually overtake the green wave to match their arrival at the breeding site with the local onset of spring, thereby ensuring gosling benefit from the peak in nutrient biomass. Our approach for estimating plant development stages is critical in testing the migration strategies of migratory herbivores.