Better informing decision making with multiple outcomes cost-effectiveness analysis under uncertainty in cost-disutility space

A hybrid digital parenting programme to prevent abuse of adolescents in Tanzania: statistical analysis plan for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Globally, violence against children poses substantial health and economic challenges, with estimated costs nearing USD 7 trillion. This prompts the urgent call for effective evidence-based interventions in preventing and mitigating violence against children. ParentApp is a mobile, open-source application designed to offer a remote version of the Parenting for Lifelong Health (PLH) programme. ParentApp is the first digital parenting intervention for caregivers of adolescents aged 10-17 years to be tested in low- and middle-income settings.

METHODS

This study is a pragmatic, two-arm, cluster-randomised trial in Mwanza, Tanzania's urban and peri-urban areas. Assessments are set for baseline, 1 month post-intervention, and 12 months post-intervention. We randomised 80 clusters, each with about 30 caregiver-adolescent dyads, with a 1:1 ratio stratified by urban or peri-urban location. Both arms receive an entry-level smartphone preloaded with Kiswahili apps-ParentApp for intervention and WashApp control. The primary method of analysis will be generalised linear mixed-effects models with adjustment for person-level characteristics and multiple imputation. In three-level models, measurement waves are nested within a person, nested within a sub-ward. Regressions will constrain groups to be equal at baseline and include covariates for stratification, percentage of male caregivers, and individual-level characteristics.

DISCUSSIONS

Preparations for the trial began in December 2022, including community mobilisation and sensitisation. Rolling recruitment, baseline data collection, and implementation onboarding took place between April and September 2023. One-month post-test data collection began in August 2023 and thus far achieved 97% and 94% retention rates for caregivers and adolescents respectively. Final post-test data collection will begin in September 2024, anticipated to run until April 2025. This SAP was submitted to the journal before the interim analysis to preserve scientific integrity under a superiority hypothesis testing framework.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered on the Open Science Framework on 14 March 2023: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/T9FXZ . The trial protocol was published in Trials 25, 119 (2024): Baerecke, L., Ornellas, A., Wamoyi, J. et al. A hybrid digital parenting programme to prevent abuse of adolescents in Tanzania: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial. Trials 25, 119 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-023-07893-x .

Aligning opportunity cost and net benefit criteria: the health shadow price

Given constrained healthcare budgets and many competing demands, public health decision-making requires comparing the expected cost and health outcomes of alternative strategies and associated adoption and financing actions. Opportunity cost (comparing outcomes from the best alternative use of budgets or actions in decision making) and more recently net benefit criteria (relative valuing of effects at a threshold value less costs) have been key concepts and metrics applied toward making such decisions. In an ideal world, opportunity cost and net benefit criteria should be mutually supportive and consistent. However, that requires a threshold value to align net benefit with opportunity cost assessment. This perspective piece shows that using the health shadow price as the ICER threshold aligns net benefit and opportunity cost criteria for joint adoption and financing actions that arise when reimbursing any new strategy or technology under a constrained budget. For an investment strategy with ICER at the health shadow price Bc = 1/(1/n + 1/d-1/m), net benefit of reimbursing (adopting and financing) that strategy given an incremental cost-effectiveness ration (ICER) of actual displacement, d, in financing, is shown to be equivalent to that of the best alternative actions, the most cost-effective expansion of existing programs (ICER = n) funded by the contraction of the least cost-effective programs (ICER = m). Net benefit is correspondingly positive or negative if it is below or above this threshold. Implications are discussed for creating pathways to optimal public health decision-making with appropriate incentives for efficient displacement as well as for adoption actions and related research.

A hybrid digital parenting programme to prevent abuse of adolescents in Tanzania: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based parenting programmes have strong evidence in preventing and mitigating violence, but in-person programmes are challenging to deliver at scale. ParentApp is an open-source, offline-first app-based adaptation of the Parenting for Lifelong Health for Parents and Teens programme to promote playful and positive parenting, reduce risks for sexual violence victimisation, and prevent violence against adolescents. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ParentApp compared to an attention-control group.

METHODS

This study is a two-arm pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial to test whether ParentApp reduces adolescent physical abuse, emotional abuse, and sexual violence risks and victimisation at 1 month and 12 months post-intervention. Caregivers of adolescents aged 10-17 years and their adolescent children (N = 2400 caregiver-adolescent dyads) will be recruited in urban and peri-urban communities in the Mwanza region of Tanzania. A total of 80 study clusters will be stratified and randomised (1:1) to the intervention group, who will receive ParentApp with support through a WhatsApp group, or to an attention-control group, who will receive a water, sanitation, and hygiene app. Quantitative data will be collected through outcomes questionnaires with caregivers and adolescents, administered at baseline, 4 months post-baseline, and 16 months post-baseline, as well as through routine implementation data and ParentApp engagement data. Qualitative data will be collected through individual interviews and focus groups with caregivers, adolescents, and implementing partner staff.

DISCUSSION

App-based interventions have the potential to expand access to evidence-based parenting support, but currently lack rigorous evidence in low- and middle-income countries. This is the first known randomised control trial of a hybrid digital parenting programme to prevent the abuse of adolescents in low- and middle-income settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered on the Open Science Framework on 14 March 2023, registration: OSF.IO/T9FXZ .

Longitudinal symptom profile of palliative care patients receiving a nurse-led end-of-life (PEACH) programme to support preference to die at home

OBJECTIVES

Tailored models of home-based palliative care aimed to support death at home, should also ensure optimal symptom control. This study aimed to explore symptom occurrence and distress over time in Palliative Extended And Care at Home (PEACH) model of care recipients.

DESIGN

This was a prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Participants were consecutive recipients of the PEACH rapid response nurse-led model of care in metropolitan Sydney (December 2013-January 2017) who were in the last weeks of life with a terminal or deteriorating phase of illness and had a preference to be cared or die at home.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Deidentified data including sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and symptom distress scores (Symptom Assessment Score) were collected at each clinical visit. Descriptive statistics and forward selection logistic regression analysis were used to explore influence of symptom distress levels on mode of separation ((1) died at home while still receiving a PEACH package, (2) admitted to a hospital or an inpatient palliative care unit or (3) discharged from the package (alive and no longer requiring PEACH)) across four symptom distress level categories.

RESULTS

1754 consecutive clients received a PEACH package (mean age 70 years, 55% male). 75.7% (n=1327) had a home death, 13.5% (n=237) were admitted and 10.8% (n=190) were still alive and residing at home when the package ceased. Mean symptom distress scores improved from baseline to final scores in the three groups (p<0.0001). The frequency of no symptom distress score (0) category was higher in the home death group. Higher scores for nausea, fatigue, insomnia and bowel problems were independent predictors of who was admitted.

CONCLUSION

Tailored home-based palliative care models to meet preference to die at home, achieve this while maintaining symptom control. A focus on particular symptoms may further optimise these models of care.

Factors Associated With Mode of Separation for People With Palliative Diagnoses With Preference for Home Death Receiving Care From a Nurse-Led End of Life (Palliative Extended and Care at Home) Program

Palliative Extended and Care at Home (PEACH) is a rapid response nurse-led package of care mobilized for palliative care patients who have an expressed preference to die at home. This study aimed to identify the demographic and clinical predictors of home death for patients receiving the package. Deidentified data were used from administrative and clinical information systems. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess association of sociodemographic factors with mode of separation. Furthermore, 1754 clients received the PEACH package during the study period. Mode of separation was home death (75.7%), hospital/palliative care unit admission (13.5%), and alive/discharged from the PEACH Program (10.8%). Of participants with clear preference to die at home, 79% met their wish. Multivariate analysis demonstrated cancer diagnosis, patients who wished to be admitted when death was imminent, and patients with undecided preference for location of death were associated with an increased likelihood of being admitted to the hospital. Compared with those with spousal caregivers, those cared for by their child/grandchild and other nonspouse caregivers were significantly associated with a decreased likelihood of being admitted to the hospital/palliative care unit. Our results show that opportunities to tailor home care based on referral characteristics to meet patient preference to die at home, at individual, system, and policy levels, exist.

Health promoting sports federations: theoretical foundations and guidelines

Background

Researchers and policy-makers have highlighted that the potential for organized sports to promote health has been underexploited. Sports clubs have limited capacity to promote health due to their voluntary nature and have called for support from their national sports federations. The present article provides guidelines, based on the theoretical principles of health promoting sports clubs and an analysis of practical tools and proven strategies, to support national sports federations to invest in health promotion (HP).

Methods

A qualitative iterative study was undertaken, based on five 2-h meetings of a group of 15 international researchers in HP in sports clubs. Notes and minutes from meetings, as well as shared outputs were analyzed based on the health promoting sports club framework.

Results

Guidelines developed for national sports federations to promote health includes a definition of a health promoting sports federation (HPSF), a description of how the settings-based approach to HP adapts to national sports federations, as well as practical applications of health promoting sports club's intervention strategies. The analysis of existing tools also demonstrated that most tools are centered on a single dimension of health (social, mental, physical, spiritual or community), and often on a specific health topic. Furthermore, they do not cover HP as a continuous long-lasting process, but are generally short-term programs. The HPSF clarifies theoretical concepts, their practical implementation via case studies and outlines intervention components and tools useful for sports federations in their implementation of HP.

Conclusion

The guidelines developed in this study are intended to facilitate national sports federations to acknowledge/understand, reinforce/underpin and foster current and further investment in HP.

Globally optimal trial design and risk sharing arrangements are key to avoiding opportunity costs of delay and enabling equitable, feasible and effective global vaccine research and implementation in current or future pandemics

Global vaccination in the face of pandemics such as COVID-19 and new variants is a race against time. Avoiding the opportunity costs of delay and the associated health, social, and downstream economic impacts is a challenge and an imperative. Failures to address the global challenges posed by COVID-19 have become increasingly evident as waves of vaccine-evading mutations have emerged, facilitated by unequal vaccination coverage and diminishing immunity against new variants worldwide. To address these challenges, societal decision-makers (governments) and industry manufacturer interests must be better aligned for rapid, globally optimal trial design, ideally with research coverage, implementation, and accessibility of effective vaccines across joint research, implementation, and distribution cycles to address pandemic evolution in real time. Value of information (VoI) methods for optimal global trial design and risk-sharing arrangements align the research, distribution, and implementation interests and efforts globally to meet head-on the imperative of avoiding opportunity costs of delay and enabling consistent global solutions with maximizing local and global net benefits. They uniquely enable feasible early adoption of the most promising strategies in real time while the best globally translatable evidence is collected and interests are aligned for global distribution and implementation. Furthermore, these methods are generally shown to be imperative for feasible, fast, and optimal solutions across joint research, reimbursement, and regulatory processes for current and future pandemics and other global existential threats. Establishing pathways for globally optimal trial designs, risk-sharing agreements, and efficient translation to practice is urgent on many fronts.

Robust cross-country comparison of children meeting 24-HR movement guidelines: an odds solution for binary effect efficiency measures

Aim

International comparisons of public health measures relative to observed best practice are increasingly important for evaluating community health promotion strategies and policies such as meeting or not meeting public health guidelines. This study aimed to identify methods enabling robust evaluation with such binary effect measures at a population level.

Subject and methods

Conventional efficiency comparisons of binary effect proportions are problematic due to a lack of consistency with alternate framing of resulting relative risks. In this paper, we illustrate such inconsistent efficiency measures comparing the proportion of school age children (9–11 years) meeting or not meeting integrated movement guidelines (IMGs) across the 12 countries from the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment (ISCOLE) study. IMGs jointly consider physical activity, sleep and sedentary behaviours. An odds method is developed to enable consistent efficiency comparison with alternative framing of binary effects.

Results

A novel odds solution to relative risk problems arising with conventional efficiency comparison of binary effects with alternative framing is shown to provide consistent efficiency measures relative to best practice. Furthermore, this technical advancement is shown to extend to consistent indirect comparison and evidence translation.

Conclusion

Robust methods for international cross-country comparison of binary effect measures such as meeting or not meeting guidelines are identified with a novel odds ratio method. This novel solution is particularly important for health promotion evaluation of IMGs given the need for consistent comparison in evaluating practice evidence of what works now and consistent evidence translation of treatment effects as and when they emerge.

A collaborative approach to adopting/adapting guidelines. The Australian 24-hour movement guidelines for children (5-12 years) and young people (13-17 years): An integration of physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep

Abstract

Background

In 2018, the Australian Government updated the Australian Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour Guidelines for Children and Young People. A requirement of this update was the incorporation of a 24-hour approach to movement, recognising the importance of adequate sleep. The purpose of this paper was to describe how the updated Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for Children and Young People (5 to 17 years): an integration of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep were developed and the outcomes from this process.

Methods

The GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach was used to develop the guidelines. A Leadership Group was formed, who identified existing credible guidelines. The Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for Children and Youth best met the criteria established by the Leadership Group. These guidelines were evaluated based on the evidence in the GRADE tables, summaries of findings tables and recommendations from the Canadian Guidelines. We conducted updates to each of the Canadian systematic reviews. A Guideline Development Group reviewed, separately and in combination, the evidence for each behaviour. A choice was then made to adopt or adapt the Canadian recommendations for each behaviour or create de novo recommendations. We then conducted an online survey (n=237) along with three focus groups (n=11 in total) and 13 key informant interviews. Stakeholders used these to provide feedback on the draft guidelines.

Results

Based on the evidence from the Canadian systematic reviews and the updated systematic reviews in Australia, the Guideline Development Group agreed to adopt the Canadian recommendations and, apart from some minor changes to the wording of good practice statements, maintain the wording of the guidelines, preamble, and title of the Canadian Guidelines. The Australian Guidelines provide evidence-informed recommendations for a healthy day (24-hours), integrating physical activity, sedentary behaviour (including limits to screen time), and sleep for children (5-12 years) and young people (13-17 years).

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is only the second time the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach has been used to develop movement behaviour guidelines. The judgments of the Australian Guideline Development Group did not differ sufficiently to change the directions and strength of the recommendations and as such, the Canadian Guidelines were adopted with only very minor alterations. This allowed the Australian Guidelines to be developed in a shorter time frame and at a lower cost. We recommend the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, especially if a credible set of guidelines that was developed using the GRADE approach is available with all supporting materials. Other countries may consider this approach when developing and/or revising national movement guidelines.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-021-01236-2.

Multiple effects health economic evaluation of the Ahead of The Game Study for mental health promotion in sporting club communities

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates the Ahead Of The Game (AOTG) mental health promotion strategy for adolescent males relative to usual practice in team based sporting club community settings, allowing for joint incremental effects across 13 dimensions and 5 domains alongside intervention implementation costs.

METHODS

Analysis is undertaken between matched communities with difference in differences analysis of joint multiple pre-post effect changes alongside implementation costs employing radar plots in cost-disutility space. A robust bootstrapping method allowed including all observed change in effect data from 343 AOTG and 273 control arm participants across 13 effect dimensions.

RESULTS

Triangulation across joint evidence shows mean incremental effects favoured AOTG in all dimensions (10/13 significantly at 5% level) and in simple aggregation to each of five pre-specified 5 domains (each significant at < 1% level) and global measures (significant at 0.001% level), while mean AOTG implementation costs were conservatively estimated as $37.47 per participant.

CONCLUSION

The AOTG strategy was found to represent an effective mental health promotion strategy across all domains and globally with associated significant potential for downstream health system cost savings to offset against modest implementation costs. Evaluation methods extend conventional cost-effectiveness analysis to enable robust joint presentation and triangulation under uncertainty of multiple effect dimensions alongside costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ANZCTR, ACTRN12617000709347 . Registered 17th May 2017.

The effect of omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids on aggressive behaviour in adult male prisoners: a structured study protocol for a multi-centre, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial and translation into policy and practice

BACKGROUND

Interventions to better manage aggressive behaviour and reduce recidivism are a primary concern for corrective services. Nutritional interventions to correct prisoner behaviour have been largely overlooked in the literature. Emerging evidence suggests that dietary intake influences aggressive behaviours and that nutritional supplementation with omega-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LCPUFA) could attenuate both the severity and frequency of aggressive behaviour.

METHODS

Adult male prisoners who have a history of aggressive behaviour (n = 600) will be recruited from at least 6 Correctional Centres and randomised to receive either n-3 LCPUFA or placebo supplementation for a 16-week duration. Treatment will be with either 1 g/day of n-3 LCPUFA (694 mg DHA and 397 mg EPA) or placebo capsules, which are a corn/soy oil blend and are identical in size and colour. The primary outcome measure is the Inmate Behavioural Observation Scale (IBOS): an objective measure of aggressive behaviour. Secondary outcome measures include questionnaires (including aggression, attention deficit disorder, impulsivity, depression/anxiety/stress scales), engagement in programmes, recidivism and quality of life. Baseline and post-intervention assessments include the IBOS, questionnaires and blood to measure the levels of n-3 LCPUFA.

DISCUSSION

To conclusively test the potential that increasing n-3 LCPUFA intakes can improve rates of prisoner aggression and associated mental health and violence-related social system management costs, we propose an adequately powered multi-centre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, examining the effects of n-3 LCPUFA supplementation on aggressive behaviour in adult male prisoners. If successful, this study will inform prisoner policy with respect to nutrition and by inference contribute to a broader community approach to preventative mental health practices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12618001665224 . Registered on 10 October 2018.

Hospital at home: home-based end-of-life care

BACKGROUND

The policy several countries is to provide people with a terminal illness the choice of dying at home; this is supported by surveys that indicate that the general public and people with a terminal illness would prefer to receive end-of-life care at home. This is the fifth update of the original review.

OBJECTIVES

To determine if providing home-based end-of-life care reduces the likelihood of dying in hospital and what effect this has on patients' symptoms, quality of life, health service costs and caregivers compared with inpatient hospital or hospice care.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE(R), Embase, CINAHL, and clinical trials registries to 18 March 2020. We checked the reference lists of systematic reviews. For included studies, we checked the reference lists and performed a forward search using ISI Web of Science. We handsearched palliative care journals indexed by ISI Web of Science for online first references.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of home-based end-of-life care with inpatient hospital or hospice care for people aged 18 years and older.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed study quality. When appropriate, we combined published data for dichotomous outcomes using a fixed-effect Mantel-Haenszel meta-analysis to calculate risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). When combining outcome data was not possible, we reported the results from individual studies.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four randomised trials and found no new studies from the search in March 2020. Home-based end-of-life care increased the likelihood of dying at home compared with usual care (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.52; 2 trials, 539 participants; I² = 25%; high-certainty evidence). Admission to hospital varied among the trials (range of RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.79, to RR 2.61, 95% CI 1.50 to 4.55). The effect on patient outcomes and control of symptoms was uncertain. Home-based end-of-life care may slightly improve patient satisfaction at one-month follow-up, with little or no difference at six-month follow-up (2 trials; low-certainty evidence). The effect on caregivers (2 trials; very low-certainty evidence), staff (1 trial; very low-certainty evidence) and health service costs was uncertain (2 trials, very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence included in this review supports the use of home-based end-of-life care programmes for increasing the number of people who will die at home. Research that assesses the impact of home-based end-of-life care on caregivers and admissions to hospital would be a useful addition to the evidence base, and might inform the delivery of these services.

A Computationally Efficient Method for Probabilistic Parameter Threshold Analysis for Health Economic Evaluations

Background. Threshold analysis is used to determine the threshold value of an input parameter at which a health care strategy becomes cost-effective. Typically, it is performed in a deterministic manner, in which inputs are varied one at a time while the remaining inputs are each fixed at their mean value. This approach will result in incorrect threshold values if the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear or if inputs are correlated. Objective. To propose a probabilistic method for performing threshold analysis, which accounts for the joint uncertainty in all input parameters and makes no assumption about the linearity of the cost-effectiveness model. Methods. Three methods are compared: 1) deterministic threshold analysis (DTA); 2) a 2-level Monte Carlo approach, which is considered the gold standard; and 3) a regression-based method using a generalized additive model (GAM), which identifies threshold values directly from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample. Results. We applied the 3 methods to estimate the minimum probability of hospitalization for typhoid fever at which 3 different vaccination strategies become cost-effective in Uganda. The threshold probability of hospitalization at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.060 and 0.061 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.058–0.064), respectively, for 2-level and GAM. According to DTA, routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years would never become cost-effective. The threshold probability at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 15 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.092 (DTA), 0.074 (2-level), and 0.072 (95% CI, 0.069–0.075) (GAM). GAM is 430 times faster than the 2-level approach. Conclusions. When the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear, GAM provides similar threshold values to the 2-level Monte Carlo approach and is computationally more efficient. DTA provides incorrect results and should not be used.

Translation of two healthy eating and active living support programs for parents of 2-6 year old children: a parallel partially randomised preference trial protocol (the 'time for healthy habits' trial)

Background

Parents are key decision makers and role models in establishing and maintaining healthy behaviours in their children. Interventions involving parents have been shown to be more effective than those that do not, but there are barriers to participation. Efficacy trials have previously been conducted on two such parent-focussed healthy eating and active living interventions with the potential to overcome these barriers - Healthy Habits (telephone-based) and Time2bHealthy (online) with promising results. Further research is now required to determine the effectiveness of these interventions in a real-world context. The Time for Healthy Habits study is a 3-arm partially randomised preference trial which aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two theory-based programs to promote healthy eating and appropriate levels of movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) for parents of 2- to 6-year-old children (Healthy Habits Plus telephone-based program and Time2bHealthy online program), when compared to a comparison group receiving written materials.

Methods

Participants will be recruited across five Local Health Districts in New South Wales, Australia. The partially randomised preference design initially allows for participants to decide if they wish to be randomised or opt to select their preferred intervention and has been recommended for use to test effectiveness in a real-world setting. Both interventions incorporate multiple behaviour change techniques and support parents to improve their children’s healthy eating, and movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep) and run for 12 weeks, followed by a 3-month and 9-month post-baseline follow-up. Participants will also be asked to complete a process evaluation questionnaire at the completion of the intervention (3-months post-baseline). Outcomes include fruit and vegetable intake (primary outcome), non-core food intake, weight status, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep habits.

Discussion

To our knowledge, this is the first translational research trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a healthy eating and active living intervention in the 2- to 6-years age group. The results will build the evidence base in regard to translation of effective childhood obesity prevention interventions and inform the implementation and delivery of community based childhood obesity prevention programs.

Trial registration

UTN: U1111–1228-9748, ACTRN: 12619000396123p.

Economic elasticities of input substitution using data envelopment analysis

The use of elasticities of substitution between inputs is a standard method for addressing the effect of a change in the mix of inputs used for production from a technical or cost standpoint. Most estimation methods use parametric production or cost functions or frontiers to estimate these elasticities. A potentially useful nonparametric alternative is data envelopment analysis (DEA). The purpose of this paper is to derive elasticities of input substitution for both technical and cost frontiers using DEA, extending the use of this approach in the field of economics and associated fields. The paper provides derivations for both Hicksian (production and cost frontier) and Morishima (cost frontier) elasticities of input substitution, as well as a parsimonious method for estimating them using DEA. The derivations are presented using an agricultural example form Kansas, USA.

Effectiveness of quality incentive payments in general practice (EQuIP-GP): a study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial of an outcomes-based funding model in Australian general practice to improve patient care

BACKGROUND

There is international interest in whether improved primary care, in particular for patients with chronic or complex conditions, can lead to decreased use of health resources and whether financial incentives help achieve this goal. This trial (EQuIP-GP) will investigate whether a funding model based upon targeted, continuous quality incentive payments for Australian general practices increases relational continuity of care, and lessens health-service utilisation, for high-risk patients and children.

METHODS

We will use a mixed methods approach incorporating a two-arm pragmatic cluster randomised control trial with nested qualitative case studies. We aim to recruit 36 general practices from Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRN) covering urban and regional areas of Australia, randomised into intervention and control groups. Control practices will provide usual care while intervention practices will be supported to implement a new service model incorporating incentives for relational continuity and timely access to appointments. Patients will comprise three groups: older (over 65 years); 18-65 years with chronic and/or complex conditions; and those aged less than 16 years with increased risk of hospitalisation. The funding model includes financial incentives to general practitioners (GPs) for providing longer consultations, same day access and timely follow-up after hospitalisation to enrolled patients. The payments are proportional to expected health system savings associated with improved quality of GP care. An outreach facilitator will work with practices to help incorporate the incentive model into usual work. The main outcome measure is relational continuity of care (Primary Care Assessment Tool short-form survey), with secondary outcomes including health-related quality of life and health service use (hospitalisations, emergency presentations, GP and specialist services in the community, medicine prescriptions and targeted pathology and imaging ordering). Outcomes will be initially evaluated over a period of 12 months, with ongoing data collection for 5 years.

DISCUSSION

The trial will provide robust evidence on a novel approach to providing continuous incentives for improving quality of general practice care, which can be compared to block payment incentives awarded at target quality levels of pay-for-performance, both within Australia and also internationally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12618000105246. Registered on 23 January 2018.

"Time Traveling Is Just Too Dangerous" but Some Methods Are Worth Revisiting: The Advantages of Expected Loss Curves Over Cost-Effectiveness Acceptability Curves and Frontier

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and the cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier (CEAF) are the recommended graphical representations of uncertainty in a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Nevertheless, many limitations of CEACs and the CEAF have been recognized by others. Expected loss curves (ELCs) overcome these limitations by displaying the expected foregone benefits of choosing one strategy over others, the optimal strategy in expectation, and the value of potential future research all in a single figure.

OBJECTIVES

To revisit ELCs, illustrate their benefits using a case study, and promote their adoption by providing open-source code.

METHODS

We used a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of a CEA comparing 6 cerebrospinal fluid biomarker test-and-treat strategies in patients with mild cognitive impairment. We showed how to calculate ELCs for a set of decision alternatives. We used the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of the case study to illustrate the limitations of currently recommended methods for communicating uncertainty and then demonstrated how ELCs can address these issues.

RESULTS

ELCs combine the probability that each strategy is not cost-effective on the basis of current information and the expected foregone benefits resulting from choosing that strategy (ie, how much is lost if we recommended a strategy with a higher expected loss). ELCs display how the optimal strategy switches across willingness-to-pay thresholds and enables comparison between different strategies in terms of the expected loss.

CONCLUSIONS

ELCs provide a more comprehensive representation of uncertainty and overcome current limitations of CEACs and the CEAF. Communication of uncertainty in CEA would benefit from greater adoption of ELCs as a complementary method to CEACs, the CEAF, and the expected value of perfect information.

Economic evaluation of the randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of subcutaneous ketamine in the management of chronic cancer pain

Background:

Treating chronic, uncontrolled, cancer pain with subcutaneous ketamine in patients unresponsive to opioids and co-analgesics remains controversial, especially in light of recent evidence demonstrating ketamine does not have net clinical benefit in this setting.

Aim:

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of subcutaneous ketamine versus placebo in this patient population.

Design and setting:

A within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis of the Australian Palliative Care Clinical Studies Collaborative’s randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of ketamine was conducted from a healthcare provider perspective. Mean costs and outcomes were estimated from participant-level data over 5 days including positive response, health-related quality of life (HrQOL) measured with the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy–Palliative Care (FACIT-Pal), ketamine costs, medication usage and in-patient stays.

Results:

There was no statistically significant difference in responder rates, but higher toxicity and worse HrQOL for ketamine participants (mean change −3.10 (standard error (SE) 1.76), ketamine n = 93; 4.53 (SE 1.38), placebo n = 92). Estimated total mean costs were AU$706 higher per ketamine participant (AU$6608) compared with placebo (AU$5902), attributable to the cost of higher in-patient costs as well as costs of ketamine administration. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for different medication use costing methods and removal of cost outliers.

Conclusion:

The findings suggest subcutaneous ketamine in conjunction with opioids and standard adjuvant therapy is neither an effective nor cost-effective treatment for refractory pain in advanced cancer patients.

A collaborative approach to adopting/adapting guidelines - The Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the early years (Birth to 5 years): an integration of physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep

BACKGROUND

In 2017, the Australian Government funded the update of the National Physical Activity Recommendations for Children 0-5 years, with the intention that they be an integration of movement behaviours across the 24-h period. The benefit for Australia was that it could leverage research in Canada in the development of their 24-h guidelines for the early years. Concurrently, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) working group published a model to produce guidelines based on adoption, adaption and/or de novo development using the GRADE evidence-to-decision framework. Referred to as the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, it allows guideline developers to follow a structured and transparent process in a more efficient manner, potentially avoiding the need to unnecessarily repeat costly tasks such as conducting systematic reviews. The purpose of this paper is to outline the process and outcomes for adapting the Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years to develop the Australian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years guided by the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT framework.

METHODS

The development process was guided by the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach. A Leadership Group and Consensus Panel were formed and existing credible guidelines identified. The draft Canadian 24-h integrated movement guidelines for the early years best met the criteria established by the Panel. These were evaluated based on the evidence in the GRADE tables, summaries of findings tables and draft recommendations from the Canadian Draft Guidelines. Updates to each of the Canadian systematic reviews were conducted and the Consensus Panel reviewed the evidence for each behaviour separately and made a decision to adopt or adapt the Canadian recommendations for each behaviour or create de novo recommendations. An online survey was then conducted (n = 302) along with five focus groups (n = 30) and five key informant interviews (n = 5) to obtain feedback from stakeholders on the draft guidelines.

RESULTS

Based on the evidence from the Canadian systematic reviews and the updated systematic reviews in Australia, the Consensus Panel agreed to adopt the Canadian recommendations and, apart from some minor changes to the wording of good practice statements, keep the wording of the guidelines, preamble and title of the Canadian Guidelines. The Australian Guidelines provide evidence-informed recommendations for a healthy day (24-h), integrating physical activity, sedentary behaviour (including limits to screen time), and sleep for infants (<1 year), toddlers (1-2 years) and preschoolers (3-5 years).

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is only the second time the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach has been used. Following this approach, the judgments of the Australian Consensus Panel did not differ sufficiently to change the directions and strength of the recommendations and as such, the Canadian recommendations were adopted with very minor alterations. This allowed the Guidelines to be developed much faster and at lower cost. As such, we would recommend the GRADE-ADOLOPMENT approach, especially if a credible set of guidelines, with all supporting materials and developed using a transparent process, is available. Other countries may consider using this approach when developing and/or revising national movement guidelines.

Protocol for a systematic review of preference-based instruments for measuring care-related outcomes and their suitability for the palliative care setting

INTRODUCTION

Despite informal caregivers' integral role in supporting people affected by disease or disability, economic evaluations often ignore the costs and benefits experienced by this group, especially in the palliative setting. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify preference-based instruments for measuring care-related outcomes and provide guidance on the selection of instrument in palliative care economic evaluations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comprehensive search of the literature will be conducted from database inception (ASSIA; CINAHL; Cochrane library including DARE, NHS EED, HTA; Econlit; Embase; PsychINFO; PubMed). Published peer-reviewed, English-language articles reporting preference-based instruments for measuring care-related outcomes in any clinical area will be included. One researcher will complete the searches and screen the results for potentially eligible studies. A randomly selected subset of 10% citations will be independently screened by two researchers. Any disagreement will be resolved by consensus among the research team. Subsequently, a supplementary search will identify studies detailing the development, valuation, validation and application of the identified instruments. The degree of suitability of the instruments for palliative economic evaluations will be assessed using criteria in the International Society for Quality of Life Research minimum standards for patient-reported outcome measures, the checklist for reporting valuation studies of multiattribute utility-based instruments and information on the development of the instrument in the palliative setting. A narrative summary of the included studies and instruments will be provided; similarities and differences will be described and possible reasons for variations explored. Recommendations for practice on selection of instruments in palliative care economic analyses will be provided.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This is a planned systematic review of published literature. Therefore, ethics approval to conduct this research is not required. Findings will be presented at leading palliative care and health economic conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42016034188.

What Aspects of Quality of Life Are Important From Palliative Care Patients' Perspectives? A Systematic Review of Qualitative Research

CONTEXT

Despite the availability of numerous tools professing to measure quality of life (QOL) in the palliative care setting, no single instrument includes all patient-valued domains.

OBJECTIVES

To identify which aspects of QOL are important from palliative care patients' perspectives, aiding coverage, and content validity evaluation of available tools.

METHODS

A systematic review and synthesis of qualitative research was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, and PubMed were searched from database inception to December 31, 2015. Published, peer-reviewed, English-language articles reporting primary qualitative data investigating QOL domains in adults with a progressive, life-limiting illness were included. Studies a priori exploring a chosen aspect of QOL were not included. Articles scoring ≤2 on reporting quality were excluded. Framework synthesis was used to identify key themes across the studies.

RESULTS

Overall, 3589 articles were screened and 24 studies were included. Eight important aspects of QOL were identified: physical; personal autonomy; emotional; social; spiritual; cognitive; healthcare; and preparatory. All but one study discussed spiritual aspects, whereas only six studies mentioned cognitive aspects.

CONCLUSION

A broad range of domains are important to the QOL of people with life-limiting illnesses receiving palliation. Refinement of measures is needed to help ensure services address issues valued by patients such as preparation for death and aspects of health care provision, elements which are seldom included in currently available preference-based measures used to inform value for money decisions in palliative care.

Economic Evaluation of a General Hospital Unit for Older People with Delirium and Dementia (TEAM Randomised Controlled Trial)

BACKGROUND

One in three hospital acute medical admissions is of an older person with cognitive impairment. Their outcomes are poor and the quality of their care in hospital has been criticised. A specialist unit to care for older people with delirium and dementia (the Medical and Mental Health Unit, MMHU) was developed and then tested in a randomised controlled trial where it delivered significantly higher quality of, and satisfaction with, care, but no significant benefits in terms of health status outcomes at three months.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the cost-effectiveness of the MMHU for older people with delirium and dementia in general hospitals, compared with standard care.

METHODS

Six hundred participants aged over 65 admitted for acute medical care, identified on admission as cognitively impaired, were randomised to the MMHU or to standard care on acute geriatric or general medical wards. Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, at 3-month follow-up, was assessed in trial-based economic evaluation (599/600 participants, intervention: 309). Multiple imputation and complete-case sample analyses were employed to deal with missing QALY data (55%).

RESULTS

The total adjusted health and social care costs, including direct costs of the intervention, at 3 months was £7714 and £7862 for MMHU and standard care groups, respectively (difference -£149 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -298, 4)). The difference in QALYs gained was 0.001 (95% CI: -0.006, 0.008). The probability that the intervention was dominant was 58%, and the probability that it was cost-saving with QALY loss was 39%. At £20,000/QALY threshold, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 94%, falling to 59% when cost-saving QALY loss cases were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

The MMHU was strongly cost-effective using usual criteria, although considerably less so when the less acceptable situation with QALY loss and cost savings were excluded. Nevertheless, this model of care is worthy of further evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136148.